Playoff Scenarios

[Hawktawk]

Big game tonight. Im a huge Indy fan today. Odds are they get clocked but they have been surprisingly good at times including beating the Chiefs in arrowhead. TY Hilton is a gametime decision. Come on Indy!!!!

[RiverDog]

I just used the playoff machine- had Rams beat niners, Hawks beat Cards, and then niners beat Hawks in week 17. That scenario gave us the division due to Hawks having best win percentage in common games.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

Let's line them up: We have 12 games in common with the Niners: Cards x2, Rams x2, plus the AFC Central teams Bengals, Browns, Steelers, and Ravens, and the NFC South teams: Saints, Panthers, Bucs, and Falcons.

If we beat the Cards and the Rams beat the Niners, our record would be 9-3 with losses to the Ravens, Saints, and Rams.

The Niners record would also be 9-3, with losses to the Ravens, Falcons, and Rams.

Am I missing something here?

[mykc14]

Let's line them up: We have 12 games in common with the Niners: Cards x2, Rams x2, Bengals, Browns, Steelers, Ravens, Saints, Panthers, Bucs, and Falcons. If we beat the Cards and the Rams beat the Niners, our record would be 9-3 with losses to the Ravens, Saints, and Rams.

The Niners record would also be 9-3, with losses to the Ravens, Falcons, and Rams.

Am I missing something here?

I see what you’re saying, but that’s what the computer says. You should mess with it and see if I’m wrong...

[RiverDog]

Let's line them up: We have 12 games in common with the Niners: Cards x2, Rams x2, Bengals, Browns, Steelers, Ravens, Saints, Panthers, Bucs, and Falcons. If we beat the Cards and the Rams beat the Niners, our record would be 9-3 with losses to the Ravens, Saints, and Rams.

The Niners record would also be 9-3, with losses to the Ravens, Falcons, and Rams.

Am I missing something here?

I see what you’re saying, but that’s what the computer says. You should mess with it and see if I’m wrong...

All I can say is that the computer is wrong if it's using best win % in common games. The strength of victory and strength of schedule tiebreakers takes a 4 function calculator, but recording wins and losses is simple enough that we can do with a dozen marbles and a cup for each team: Put one clear marble for a win in one cup and one cloudy marble for a loss in another. Cave man math.

Edit: I did mess around with it, but I didn't see where it tells you what tiebreaker criteria it was using to seed the teams. You'd have to fill out a bunch more games besides ours and the Niners if it's using strength of victory/strength of schedule.

[c_hawkbob]

You'r missing the strength of those wins against common opponents.

No I didn't do the math, just pointing out a possible overlooked variable.

[RiverDog]

You'r missing the strength of those wins against common opponents.

No I didn't do the math, just pointing out a possible overlooked variable.

But that's not what Mykc said. He said that it used win percentage in common games, the third tiebreaker (after head-to-head and division record), which would clearly be 9-3 for both teams. The 4th tiebreaker is best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference, which would also be a wash, taking us to the 5th tiebreaker, strength of victory, which by my calculations the Niners currently own.

Not saying I'm right, just trying to sort it out.

[mykc14]

River-

If you look up top, right above the top row where you select teams it says: Insructions, Tiebreakers, and then something else (I cant remember what) look up there and see what you think (if you want to or have time). Every time you make new selections it shows all of the final tiebreakers that ended up placing everybody where they ended up.

[RiverDog]

River-

If you look up top, right above the top row where you select teams it says: Insructions, Tiebreakers, and then something else (I cant remember what) look up there and see what you think (if you want to or have time). Every time you make new selections it shows all of the final tiebreakers that ended up placing everybody where they ended up.

OK, thanks, I found it. But it still doesn't change my argument. The tiebreaker says "best winning percentage in common games", not strength of win which is a different tiebreaker, yet I keep counting the number of wins and losses in common games between us and the Niners and keep coming up with the same number of wins and losses for both teams, 9-3, and a winning percentage of .750 for both. There either has to be something that I'm missing, which no one has pointed out yet, or there's something wrong with the playoff machine.

Edit: I just saw a post on Facebook indicating that ESPN's playoff machine is wrong, that we're going to have to win out to win our division. Indeed, if you go into the comments section of the ESPN playoff machine link, you'll see a number of people posting comments about the accuracy of it. Don't trust that thing, use your common sense.

[Hawktawk]

How would we have to win out to win the division. I know we have to beat the 9ers but is seems to me we could trip on the Cards and still win the division in week 17 as we would have a sweep over the 9ers?

[RiverDog]

How would we have to win out to win the division. I know we have to beat the 9ers but is seems to me we could trip on the Cards and still win the division in week 17 as we would have a sweep over the 9ers?

You're right, I should have said that we're going to have to beat the Niners to win the division. We can lose to the Cards and still win the division if we beat the Niners. Same goes for the Niners-Rams game. It has no consequence regarding the winner of the division. However, both games could have huge consequences as far as playoff seeding goes.

[mykc14]

Edit: I just saw a post on Facebook indicating that ESPN's playoff machine is wrong, that we're going to have to win out to win our division. Indeed, if you go into the comments section of the ESPN playoff machine link, you'll see a number of people posting comments about the accuracy of it. Don't trust that thing, use your common sense.

Yeah, after spending some time looking at it I agree the Playoff Machine is wrong. If the Rams lose this weekend we won't be able to lock up the division. Of course we could still win the division if we lose to the niners next week, but then we have to rely on other scenario's to play out.

[RiverDog]

Yeah, after spending some time looking at it I agree the Playoff Machine is wrong. If the Rams lose this weekend we won't be able to lock up the division. Of course we could still win the division if we lose to the niners next week, but then we have to rely on other scenario's to play out.

Perhaps a tip of the hat is in order?

The "other scenarios" is strength of victory, the 5th tiebreaker. The Niners own wins over the 11-3 Saints, the 11-3 Packers, and the 3-11 Redskins. We own wins over the 10-4 Vikings, the 5-9 Falcons, and the 7-7 Eagles. All other games have common outcomes between common opponents. Adding up the wins, the Niners opponents have 25 wins, ours have 22. That's a 3 game lead with 6 to play.

We need to pay attention to those 6 teams this weekend. Packers vs. Vikings is a big one for several reasons related to seeding. They play on MNF.

[mykc14]

Perhaps a tip of the hat is in order?

I tip my hat to you, sir.

[RiverDog]

Here's a better look at our playoff scenarios than the discredited ESPN Playoff Machine. Below is the part that applies to our discussion of clinching the division this weekend by beating the Cards and the Niners losing to the Rams:

...in this case (Hawks beating the Cards, losing to the Niners) most likely, the 49ers win the division outright at 13-3 or via the strength of victory (5th) tie-breaker. Seahawks are the 5 seed.

The Seahawks can still turn that fifth tie-breaker around, but they need a lot of help. If they do get the help, then they can lose the finale to the 49ers and still win the division. A lot has to go right. Because A) the Rams have to defeat the Niners in San Francisco first, and B) Seattle has to pick up three games in strength of victory.

The Niners’ current SOV is 79-86-2. The Seahawks’ is 76-89-2. The way to gain ground is for teams SF already beat to start losing, and teams SEA already beat to start winning.

In other words, the trio of MIN/PHI/ATL needs to perform three games better than the trio of GB/NO/WAS. If that happens, Seattle catches San Fran, and the next tie-breaker, one that favors the Seahawks, strength of schedule, kicks in.
A realistic series of events would look like this:

MIN sweeps GB, CHI
PHI sweeps DAL, NYG
ATL splits JAX, TB

That would add 5-1 to the Seahawks’ ledger. The only road victory required is the Eagles over the Giants. Then:

NO splits TEN, CAR
GB splits MIN, DET
WAS drops both NYG, DAL

There are other ways for Seattle to pick up three games, but the above scenario demands the least amount of farfetching. Or, you know, the Seahawks could just win Week 17 and save us all the trouble.

https://www.fieldgulls.com/2019/12/17/2 ... dRyvjNB6N4

[mykc14]

Here's a better look at our playoff scenarios than the discredited ESPN Playoff Machine. Below is the part that applies to our discussion of clinching the division this weekend by beating the Cards and the Niners losing to the Rams:

...in this case (Hawks beating the Cards, losing to the Niners) most likely, the 49ers win the division outright at 13-3 or via the strength of victory (5th) tie-breaker. Seahawks are the 5 seed.

The Seahawks can still turn that fifth tie-breaker around, but they need a lot of help. If they do get the help, then they can lose the finale to the 49ers and still win the division. A lot has to go right. Because A) the Rams have to defeat the Niners in San Francisco first, and B) Seattle has to pick up three games in strength of victory.

The Niners’ current SOV is 79-86-2. The Seahawks’ is 76-89-2. The way to gain ground is for teams SF already beat to start losing, and teams SEA already beat to start winning.

In other words, the trio of MIN/PHI/ATL needs to perform three games better than the trio of GB/NO/WAS. If that happens, Seattle catches San Fran, and the next tie-breaker, one that favors the Seahawks, strength of schedule, kicks in.
A realistic series of events would look like this:

MIN sweeps GB, CHI
PHI sweeps DAL, NYG
ATL splits JAX, TB

That would add 5-1 to the Seahawks’ ledger. The only road victory required is the Eagles over the Giants. Then:

NO splits TEN, CAR
GB splits MIN, DET
WAS drops both NYG, DAL

There are other ways for Seattle to pick up three games, but the above scenario demands the least amount of farfetching. Or, you know, the Seahawks could just win Week 17 and save us all the trouble.

https://www.fieldgulls.com/2019/12/17/2 ... dRyvjNB6N4

That perfectly lays it out (and is exactly what you have been saying all week!).

[RiverDog]

As if it's not complicated enough, there's another oddity regarding HFA. If the Packers, Saints, and us all win out, we'll all be tied with a 13-3 regular season record. There isn't a tiebreaker in the first 4 that gives any club an advantage, so it would go all the way down to the 5th tiebreaker, strength of victory. I haven't worked it out precisely, but SOV would seem to favor us as we would have two wins over the Niners, whom at worst would be 11-5. Neither the Packers or the Saints have a victory over a team with that good of a record let alone two wins.

However, if the Packers lose to the Vikings this Monday night (more probable than losing to the Lions in Week 17), it could lead to a two way tie between us and the Saints, and they'd own the tiebreaker due to their victory over us back in October.

So, in one way, it would be better for us for the Vikings to beat the Packers as it would enhance our strength of victory if we were to tie with the Niners, but a Packers win might be better for us if we ended up in a 3 way tie with the Saints and Green Bay.

Crazy scenarios. I've never seen a season quite like this one, at least not one that involved us.