Janikowski back next year?

[RiverDog]

You can't underestimate the importance of having an upper tier kicker...it has made the difference in our playoff fortunes (or lack thereof) the past 2 seasons. I'd be happy if they found someone worth spending a draft pick on. It worked out well last time.

That's a big 'if'. As we've discussed, it's almost impossible to predict how well a college place kicker will do in the pros. Punting doesn't seem to be as much as of a crap shoot as there is with place kicking, so there was a lot less risk associated with our drafting Dickson than what a team would incur if they drafted the top PK available.

[NorthHawk]

That can be said about any player, RD.
Remember Aaron Curry, the safest player in the draft?
A late round selection might be worthwhile if they like someone.

[RiverDog]

That can be said about any player, RD.
Remember Aaron Curry, the safest player in the draft?
A late round selection might be worthwhile if they like someone.

Sure, it can, and Aaron Curry is a great example. But I do think that it's quite a bit more difficult to predict the success of a place kicker than it is a linebacker or even a punter.

That's not to say that I would be against spending a late round pick on a place kicker.

[NorthHawk]

I’m not so sure it’s easier. The kickers usually have a lot of attempts to evaluate them
just like regular players.
The key to any player coming out of College is to determine if his game translates to the NFL
including whether he has the proper mentality for the pressure he’s going to face.

[RiverDog]

I’m not so sure it’s easier. The kickers usually have a lot of attempts to evaluate them
just like regular players.
The key to any player coming out of College is to determine if his game translates to the NFL
including whether he has the proper mentality for the pressure he’s going to face.

Blair Walsh was a top 5 kicker coming out of college. He missed just one FG attempt in his first season, set an NFL record for most kicks made over 50 yards. In 2014, he set a record for the most consecutive 50+ FG attempts made (9) and kicked back-to-back game winners from the 40 yard range. He was as good of a kicker that existed at that time.

Then came the playoffs in the 2015 season, where me missed a 27 yarder with the game and the season on the line vs. us and it was all downhill from there. In 2016, he missed 4 XP's and 4 FG attempts in 10 weeks and the Vikings released him. I don't have to tell you what happened in 2017. For some reason, Walsh fell off a cliff, going from golden to garbage in a very short time. Unquestionably, something got into his head.

If there was a proven way that a team could have evaluated Walsh to determine that he didn't have the proper mentality for the pressure he was going to face before we signed him in 2017, I'm sure that the Hawks would have employed those methods. I'm pretty sure that Walsh himself couldn't tell you why he suddenly fell off the cliff.

There's not near the pressure on punters to perform as they're never on the field in a walk off situation. If the game were on the line, the team wouldn't be punting. It's also my contention that hitting a good punt is easier than hitting a good PK. Certainly there's a lot more forgiveness in terms of the target area. Hence, there's more confidence of teams getting it right when they draft a punter as the mental aspect doesn't enter into the equation nearly as much as it does a PK.

[NorthHawk]

Lots of players fall off after their first year.
The 2nd year jinx is a common comment because of it and it's not limited to any one position.
Players careers are short on average not solely because of injuries or competition, but it's common
to see a falloff in play, and kickers are no different.
I'm not saying take one in the early rounds, rather the mid to late round selections can be beneficial
if they hit on a good one.
And as said before, finding the good one is the key.

A thought just occurred to me. I wonder if there are scouts that focus on ST players like Kickers and Punters?

[RiverDog]

Lots of players fall off after their first year.
The 2nd year jinx is a common comment because of it and it's not limited to any one position.

Walsh didn't fall off after his first year, or aft his second. It wasn't until late in his 4th season, the infamous playoff game miss, that his decline started.

Players careers are short on average not solely because of injuries or competition, but it's common
to see a falloff in play, and kickers are no different.

I'm not sure I'd say that it's "common" for individual play to fall off at other positions, but I'll admit that it does happen. But usually there's an attributable reason, like Eddie Lacy and his weight. I'd challenge you to show a player at any other position that had as rapid of a fall off as Walsh did that couldn't be attributed to injury or physical condition.

I'm not saying take one in the early rounds, rather the mid to late round selections can be beneficial
if they hit on a good one.
And as said before, finding the good one is the key.

Middle rounds? I don't think that's necessary. How many PK's are taken in Rounds 3-5?

A thought just occurred to me. I wonder if there are scouts that focus on ST players like Kickers and Punters?

I would guess that there, but I really don't know.

[NorthHawk]

You seem to be using Walsh as your poster boy for kickers going bad.
I could point to Hauschka as a kicker who also regained his form in another city.
Even Vinatieri has had bad years like in 2003 where he only made 73.5% of his attempts, but recovered to be one of
the best kickers in history and could make the HoF.

I just think a good kicker is valuable and worth a mid to late round pick if the draft falls that way, but most of the
time teams have other more pressing needs to be addressed.

[RiverDog]

You seem to be using Walsh as your poster boy for kickers going bad.
I could point to Hauschka as a kicker who also regained his form in another city.
Even Vinatieri has had bad years like in 2003 where he only made 73.5% of his attempts, but recovered to be one of
the best kickers in history and could make the HoF.

I used Walsh because he's a former Seahawk that we're all painfully aware of his career, and he was one of the few PK's to have been drafted. The two you mentioned, Vinatieri and Hauschka, were UDFA's.

But to address your point, let's take a look at some other kickers that teams felt strongly enough to spend some draft capital on. The highest drafted kicker since Seabass in 2000 was Roberto Agauyo, taken by Tampa Bay in the 2nd round with the #59 overall in 2016. He was a complete bust, released after his first season, never kicked in an NFL game after his first year.

The next highest was Alex Henery, taken by the Eagles in the 4th round in 2011, lasted 3 seasons before he was released, with a career FG% of 82.4.

Daniel Carlson was the highest drafted kicker last season, taken by the Vikings in the 5th round. They released him after he went 1-4 in 2 games.

I just think a good kicker is valuable and worth a mid to late round pick if the draft falls that way, but most of the
time teams have other more pressing needs to be addressed.

Here's a list of place kickers taken in the draft over the past 20+ years:

http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldr ... e=position

If we see a really good kicker, then MAYBE I could be talked into spending a 6th or 7th rounder on one. They truly are crap shoots.

[NorthHawk]

What I think that shows is it's just as much of a crapshoot when drafting a Kicker as any position.
There are just fewer chosen when compared to all the other positions so the sample size is small.
Sure there have been busts and some excellent Kickers chosen in late rounds or UFA, but it doesn't
mean it can't be good value or strategy to select a K in mid to late rounds. What team would turn
down a chance at a rookie Janikowski and be set at K for the better part of 2 decades?
But it all comes down to need and if a K is available when it's advantageous.

[RiverDog]

What I think that shows is it's just as much of a crapshoot when drafting a Kicker as any position.
There are just fewer chosen when compared to all the other positions so the sample size is small.
Sure there have been busts and some excellent Kickers chosen in late rounds or UFA, but it doesn't
mean it can't be good value or strategy to select a K in mid to late rounds. What team would turn
down a chance at a rookie Janikowski and be set at K for the better part of 2 decades?
But it all comes down to need and if a K is available when it's advantageous.

Did you look at the link I provided? If not, please check it out and click on the kickers that have been drafted over the past 6 years or so. I think you will be surprised.

Of all the kickers drafted in the past 6 years, none have spent more than 3 seasons with the team that drafted them. Most are gone within a year. To be fair, there have been a couple that have done well with other teams, but that just proves my point, ie that we are better off going with a UDFA or a FA rather than wasting a draft pick on one. It would be foolish for us to waste any higher than a 6th rounder on a kicker.

[NorthHawk]

Yes, I saw the list.
The point I was making about the list is it's a very tiny sample of players chosen in the NFL.
With something like 250 players chosen each year, the list is pretty small.
What that short list means is teams think they are settled at the position, and have other
glaring needs they wish to address. It's not necessarily about value.
That supports your point that getting them later is a good strategy for most teams, but if you really need one
it's not a bad thing to get one while you can even in the mid to late rounds and before they are chosen
by another team.

[RiverDog]

Yes, I saw the list.
The point I was making about the list is it's a very tiny sample of players chosen in the NFL.
With something like 250 players chosen each year, the list is pretty small.
What that short list means is teams think they are settled at the position, and have other
glaring needs they wish to address. It's not necessarily about value.
That supports your point that getting them later is a good strategy for most teams, but if you really need one
it's not a bad thing to get one while you can even in the mid to late rounds and before they are chosen
by another team.

I guess we've beat this subject to death, so I'll end my contributions to it by saying that I disagree with you regarding there not being enough information to conclude that drafting a place kicker is less likely to produce desired results as other positions. Indeed, the fact that they aren't generally taken any higher than the 6th round is a strong indication of the unpredictability of their success.

As many games that are decided by a made or missed kick, you would think that teams would be spending 1st, 2nd, and 3rd rounders on them if the predictive success percentage were equal to that of other positions.

[NorthHawk]

Yup, pretty much a dead subject.

However, I will respond with this:

As many games that are decided by a made or missed kick, you would think that teams would be spending 1st, 2nd, and 3rd rounders on them if the predictive success percentage were equal to that of other positions

The difference with other positions is you need depth, competition, and development players but with a Kicker, a good one can last almost 2 decades without it being addressed. Therefor, fewer are selected.

[trents]

Hawks have signed Sam Fickens who previously played for the Rams. Out of PSU. Just found this out today when visiting the "official" Seahawks' team website.

[RiverDog]

Looks like we're signing Jason Myers, a former Pro Bowl kicker.

https://www.thescore.com/nfl/news/17351 ... fzfbM7bJiU

Hopefully this solves the kicking problem we've had since letting Haush walk.

[c_hawkbob]

Well now we've got pro bowlers at both P & K, maybe they did learn a lesson.

[NorthHawk]

That's in the Seahawks News thread from yesterday.

[Aseahawkfan]

Now maybe the kicking won't drive me nuts.

[RiverDog]

Now maybe the kicking won't drive me nuts.

Well, I wouldn't hold my breath. All kickers have missed some really easy kicks, even Justin Tucker, one of the most reliable in history.