HawkShack.com

Football in particular?

I think most of you are dialed in on how betting football works. But I am seeing so much misinformation out there, like "Vegas lost money today", that I am literally frightened. We all know gambling is not a game and there's a few posters here I would like to assist if you have questions.

On top of my other crazy stories, I also ran book for over 20 years ( only chips...never real money). I have been involved with gambling at every level and educated by literally the very best. I will not give inaccurate information, so there should be no reason for debate. I don't care if that sounds arrogant. If that's what it takes to keep people from throwing away their money...so be it. I wasn't always so nice.

I will not pick winners for people. If I could do that with enough regularity to offer such advice, I wouldn't have time to be on a discussion board. I will offer you proven strategies, sound fundamentals and most importantly, fact and truth. Why? My brother wanted me to be nicer. I am being nicer.

BUT...There are also people that I don't give a rat's ass about and tons of a-holes that frequent this and every board. I don't even want to know how much it cost me to learn what I know, but I'm sure not giving this information to people I dislike or disrespect. I would sooner take possession of their cars, boats and college funds. With that, I would prefer to answer your questions by way of PM. So if you have questions, please contact me using that method.

My first piece of advice?...don't gamble. It seldom ends well. I promise.

HawkWow wrote:Football in particular?

I think most of you are dialed in on how betting football works. But I am seeing so much misinformation out there, like "Vegas lost money today", that I am literally frightened. We all know gambling is not a game and there's a few posters here I would like to assist if you have questions.

On top of my other crazy stories, I also ran book for over 20 years ( only chips...never real money). I have been involved with gambling at every level and educated by literally the very best. I will not give inaccurate information, so there should be no reason for debate. I don't care if that sounds arrogant. If that's what it takes to keep people from throwing away their money...so be it. I wasn't always so nice.

I will not pick winners for people. If I could do that with enough regularity to offer such advice, I wouldn't have time to be on a discussion board. I will offer you proven strategies, sound fundamentals and most importantly, fact and truth. Why? My brother wanted me to be nicer. I am being nicer.

BUT...There are also people that I don't give a rat's ass about and tons of a-holes that frequent this and every board. I don't even want to know how much it cost me to learn what I know, but I'm sure not giving this information to people I dislike or disrespect. I would sooner take possession of their cars, boats and college funds. With that, I would prefer to answer your questions by way of PM. So if you have questions, please contact me using that method.

My first piece of advice?...don't gamble. It seldom ends well. I promise.

Las Vegas casinos, ie sports books, take 10% off all payouts, so if, for example, if you put down $10 on a game and win, you don't get $20, you get $18. So in the bookies minds, they really don't care who wins, they want more people to bet and to bet higher amounts of money. The object for the sports books is to even out the betting and reduce their risk of either of the two possible outcomes occurring.

That's why sports books establish point spreads, to even out the betting activity and reduce their risk of losing money on either of the two possible outcomes. If the bookies are doing their jobs right and keeping a relatively 50/50 split of bets wagered on the only two possible outcomes, you are not winning the house's $10, you're winning some other poor slob's $10 and paying his 10% betting fee for him, along with your own 10% betting fee, out of your winnings. So what the bookies do is give points to encourage more people to bet for or against a certain outcome, with the bookie's goal being to get 50% of the bettors taking Outcome A and 50% taking Outcome B. That's why point spreads change throughout the week, as it is a reflection of more people betting on one outcome vs. the opposite.

One of the reasons I don't look at point spreads out of Las Vegas as a true gauge of the odds is that a lot of casual bettors will simply lay down money on their favorite team regardless of how good or bad that team is. I know a lot of people that at the start of the season will go down to Las Vegas and bet on their favorite team to win the Super Bowl because they want to hit that 50-1 longshot jackpot if their favorite team wins. That doesn't necessarily mean that the bettor understands that their star quarterback got injured and won't start the season or that the team lost 3 of their top stars to free agency. Also, some teams, like the Cowboys, Redskins, and Giants, enjoy more popularity than do the Seahawks, Titans, and Panthers, due to the fact that they are in bigger markets and are more recognizable to the casual fan.

Anyhow, that's a layman's explanation. I do like to go to Vegas and bet a relatively small amount on certain outcomes. It enhances my interest in the game. But unless you are very, very good at picking winners and losers or other outcomes, it's pretty difficult come out ahead when you're losing 10% right up front. There's better odds games than betting on football socres.

That's very nice of you H-wow. I'm not personally much of a gambler but I do love reading about strategies the sharps use. Often it seems like a whole lot of work

I too have studied a few games. Doesn't end bad for me always. But sometimes I am in a downward spiral that is best beaten by just stopping. I will hit you up.

"One of the reasons I don't look at point spreads out of Las Vegas as a true gauge of the odds is that a lot of casual bettors will simply lay down money on their favorite team regardless of how good or bad that team is. I know a lot of people that at the start of the season will go down to Las Vegas and bet on their favorite team to win the Super Bowl because they want to hit that 50-1 longshot jackpot if their favorite team wins. That doesn't necessarily mean that the bettor understands that their star quarterback got injured and won't start the season or that the team lost 3 of their top stars to free agency:~ RiverDog

What gauge would you use? If betting in Vegas, you have no choice but to use the point spread, unless you're betting the moneyline, and that too is influenced by random bettors. But the friends you are describing above are likely (hopefully) betting so small, it would take 1000 of them, all betting on the same side, to move the line a 1/2 point.

That aside, and despite popular belief, the line is not your enemy (unless you are one of the people you reference above). The key is finding weakness in the line, then exploiting that weakness. Let the line be your friend.

Eaglehawk wrote:I too have studied a few games. Doesn't end bad for me always. But sometimes I am in a downward spiral that is best beaten by just stopping. I will hit you up.

Anytime bro. You sound like you have knowledge of the subject. Knowledge is good. I started this thread yesterday after reading countless people (elsewhere) spew such crap about this very serious subject, that I couldn't in good faith not say anything. One very seasoned poster just refused to understand that when a favorite loses, that does not instantly mean Vegas loses. And I've seen this for too many years. More times than not, I refused to take bets from such people. I mean, yes, I want their money but I'm sure not going to steal it. Good luck!

FolkCrusader wrote:That's very nice of you H-wow. I'm not personally much of a gambler but I do love reading about strategies the sharps use. Often it seems like a whole lot of work

It's a ton of work FC. That is, if you want to be able to look yourself in the mirror on a Tuesday morning. I always had issue with customers that placed their bets with little study. I've watched people (friends) ruined by such arrogance / laziness.

When I was more on the betting side of the table, I would spend no less than 40-50 hrs, starting Saturday night, creating my own lines before looking at anything Vegas had on offer. IMO, the Vegas line should be the last thing you see before placing your bet.

IE. Having spent 4 hrs on the Jax / Det game (considering too many factors / indicators to mention here), I have concluded that at home, Detroit is 12 points better than Jax. Only now do I go to the LV line and see they have it Det - 6. I like that cushion and bet Detroit. Had it been Detroit - 11, I would not bet that game.

Creating lines is not difficult. Vegas is actually at a disadvantage to the smart bettor. Lefty Rosenthal was arguably the best ever. But even he was disadvantaged for the simple reason the casinos want that number from him NOW and before the masses head home on a Sunday night. So Lefty did his very best based on his knowledge of public perception. As RD mentioned...teams like SF get more play than a team like Cleveland and Lefty is going to cheat to the SF side.

It's uber important to prevent "middling"...that can crush Vegas. If Lefty's line moves from -3 to let's say -8...Vegas is in a perilous predicament. You and I are smiling from ear to ear if we got in on that -3. Because we will turn around and bet the opposite way and take that +8. Best case, the margin of victory falls between 3 and 8 . We would win both sides. Worst case, it doesn't fall in the middle but we lose only the juice, a fraction of our potential win. NEVER be so arrogant as to pass on such opportunity by being so confident in your initial bet to ride it alone. That's foolish betting.

Further, Lefty (and team) was responsible for every college game and every pro game. Again you are at an advantage. He will put most of his focus on high traffic games / TV games/etc. DO NOT BET a game because it's televised or the only game available (Monday night). You are in his world if you do. A better strategy would be to bet more obscure games like Brown over Yale. Less fun. More opportunity.

Good luck, all...or better stated.. good math.

Well...this week, had I bet, I woulda' been a perfect 0-2. Hey..it's every bit as hard to pick 2 losers as it is to pick 2 winners. So there's that. Being fair to myself, I spent no time with either of the games I picked. They were gut hunches. I over-estimated the 9ers, underestimated the Saints. And if I've learned one thing, it's don't go with gut hunches. Always do the math.

"just pick the winner in the play offs and they will cover" hit exactly as expected. Only the 9ers won, but failed to cover. So again, that method won 75% of the time this weekend.

I did some parlay and teaser cards this year.
Not much $ to spare, so these were 10 buck wagers.
I hit one 6 team teaser and one 3 team parlay - for the season, lol.
In the end, I was minus 70.
I guess my question would be, HawkWow, is if you've ever heard of anybody using the "pro" handicapper that plug the airwaves on Sat and Sun saying, "I guarantee you will go 2-0 this Sunday...".
They say their results and % can be verified. I'm just wondering if you know of anybody who hit it big using these guys.

Ah Zorn my man. I'm glad you've asked this question.

I've known a couple of these guys that have made millions on this scam.. Jim Fiest was a big one. And a clown. What these people do, simple but profitable, if not genius :

Edit: Decided to explain this by PM.

BTW, I'm not real big on teasers / parlays, but I do have a very practical method I've used for parlays. It's super cool and will increase your bottom line. When I get the chance, I will PM you the technique. If I don't do so in the next couple days...please remind me. Aloha and good luck.

There's better odds games than betting on football scores.-River Dog

Yes, but if you are like me, & playing small amounts, ($100 or less), you actually get value for your money. An average football game lasts 3 hours. Let's say you decide to play craps instead because the odds are better. Craps is the game with the best odds of all casino games. You'l be hard pressed to find a table with less than a $5 minimum. So you take that $100 that you were going to bet on a football game & bet it on the craps table. You could either bet it all on a 1 roll bet, or choose to play the pass line & follow the shooter to conclusion of his point. At $5, a pass line bet usually will conclude within a few minutes. So you'll either win or lose the point you bet on in anywhere from 1 to infinite rolls of the dice, but on average, the shooter either hits his point or rolls a 7 within 5 minutes. So at $5 every 5 minutes, you are entertained for a minimum of 20 minutes. Obviously, you aren't going to lose every pass line bet, so lets say you hit your point around 45% of the time, which is on the generous side of being realistic. You'll wind up losing your $100 after about an hour. If you put that same amount on a football game, you can sit there in the sports book & drink & watch for 3 hours, so your value is triple that of a $100 investment in a craps game, which is considered the best odds. I bet on football for entertainment. It makes things more interesting. I will get more involved in a game if I've got money on it. I remember watching the butt fumble by Sanchez & laughing because I never would have been watching that game if I didn't have money on it.

HawkWow,

Thanks for the reply and the pm.

It's all for fun. I keep track of every season that I've bet on, with none of them being a full 16 weeks of wagers to begin with. This season was one of 3 that saw me on the minus side out of the past 7. I do nothing in the postseason, except for the SB, and even then that isn't for much - 50 at most.

Parlays and teasers are fround upon by most for any number of reasons, but I still find them the most fun, especially when they're 10 buck cards to begin with.

Vegaseahawk wrote:There's better odds games than betting on football scores.-River Dog

Yes, but if you are like me, & playing small amounts, ($100 or less), you actually get value for your money. An average football game lasts 3 hours. Let's say you decide to play craps instead because the odds are better. Craps is the game with the best odds of all casino games. You'l be hard pressed to find a table with less than a $5 minimum. So you take that $100 that you were going to bet on a football game & bet it on the craps table. You could either bet it all on a 1 roll bet, or choose to play the pass line & follow the shooter to conclusion of his point. At $5, a pass line bet usually will conclude within a few minutes. So you'll either win or lose the point you bet on in anywhere from 1 to infinite rolls of the dice, but on average, the shooter either hits his point or rolls a 7 within 5 minutes. So at $5 every 5 minutes, you are entertained for a minimum of 20 minutes. Obviously, you aren't going to lose every pass line bet, so lets say you hit your point around 45% of the time, which is on the generous side of being realistic. You'll wind up losing your $100 after about an hour. If you put that same amount on a football game, you can sit there in the sports book & drink & watch for 3 hours, so your value is triple that of a $100 investment in a craps game, which is considered the best odds. I bet on football for entertainment. It makes things more interesting. I will get more involved in a game if I've got money on it. I remember watching the butt fumble by Sanchez & laughing because I never would have been watching that game if I didn't have money on it.

Good Points, VSH.

Especially with Dice being the best game in the house if played correctly. Poker players argue this, but I don't play poker. Dice is my game....above any other, inc. sports wagering. You've been in LV for a long time and likely have a solid approach to dice but I wouldn't mind hitting you with a couple tips if you're interested. I know you're maxing your odds on the backline..(right?). Always do. Dice is tricky business. For the most part, I'm the "wrong way" guy. The guy that is not cheering when others are because I do my best to stay to the side of the house. With help from the people I mentioned to you by PM, I've formatted a pretty neat "system" (I hate that term).

I Won't make the $50K at the end of some random guys epic 30 minute hold of the dice, in fact my method is a bit of a grind. But I do make money consistently. Requires an assload of concentration (not as bad as card counting) and if you are getting some numbnuts on a stick trying to take you off your game, you have to find another table (when STFU doesn't work), because it's mandatory that you keep roll-count. Unsure if I can get to it tonight...but I will get it to you soon.

Zorn76 wrote:HawkWow,

Thanks for the reply and the pm.

It's all for fun. I keep track of every season that I've bet on, with none of them being a full 16 weeks of wagers to begin with. This season was one of 3 that saw me on the minus side out of the past 7. I do nothing in the postseason, except for the SB, and even then that isn't for much - 50 at most.

Parlays and teasers are fround upon by most for any number of reasons, but I still find them the most fun, especially when they're 10 buck cards to begin with.

Anytime bro. How come you don't bet the post? Again, I never want to encourage gambling, but the formula I mentioned earlier has been very good to me. Just decide your winner and bet that team with disregard to the spread. I feel it's hit about 75% of the time, as it did last weekend. But PLEASE don't do this if you weren't going to bet anyway.

So far everyone that has PMed me seems to know what they're doing and I've enjoyed the banter. Good people. But what I really intended to do with this thread was to set some things straight for people that bet and have no idea what they are doing. Such people make me nuts...not because they don't know what they are doing, but because they get on a message board (not here) and spread terrible information to the masses as though it were fact. That really does piss me off. This is too intelligent of a board for me to even repeat some of the crap I've recently read and such posters should be ordered to stop posting. A guy that knows "a little about gambling" is like a guy that knows "a little about martial arts", IMO.

Both yourself and VSH spoke of playing parlays and I'm about to shoot you both something I hope will help.

What Hawkwow is referring to is what is called a round robin parlay. It is a method of hedging your bet. Kind of like buying insurance if you will. In a 3 team round robin bet, you are betting on every possible combination of 2 of your 3 teams winning in addition to the 3 team bet. This is all rolled up into 1 ticket so that you can break even if you hit 2 of 3.

Vegaseahawk wrote:What Hawkwow is referring to is what is called a round robin parlay. It is a method of hedging your bet. Kind of like buying insurance if you will. In a 3 team round robin bet, you are betting on every possible combination of 2 of your 3 teams winning in addition to the 3 team bet. This is all rolled up into 1 ticket so that you can break even if you hit 2 of 3.

We could be talking different things, VSH 9but maybe we're not?) Please disregard my last PM (minute ago) and I will write you again now...just to make sure we are on the same page. Aloha.

BTW...earlier I said people that misinform others on wagering make me nuts. This is what I get from a charger fan this morning, when trying to help him better understand the way things work at a sports book in Vegas. Right when I thought I had him dialed in he says "yeah, but you can't tell me Vegas don't lose money when a team scores late in the game".

You can't make this stuff up.