monkey wrote:First, the Saints still have the EXACT SAME matchup problem they had last time they were here...what has changed other than the media HOPING something has, and inventing reasons the Saints could win?
I think the Hawks will win by a TD or so, but I think 2 things are different this time around:
1) No KJ Wright shutting down the best pass catching TE in the game right now, and the Hawks have been vulnerable in that part of their game in the last year or so (just about their only defensive vulnerability)
2) Drew Brees having film and experience. I'm under no illusions that the Hawks can repeat their performance against Brees, he's just too smart to be shut down like that again. Do I think the Hawks can keep him under 250 yards and 2 TDs? Yeah, but I won't be even slightly surprised if he hits those numbers.
But even though those are real differences to me, I see the weather neutralizing some of their impact.
monkey wrote:Bottom line: The Saints defense is NOT AT ALL good enough to stop Seattle's offense. They will not be able to both stop Lynch AND the passing game, they just do not have the talent to do both. Eventually one or the other WILL break through, and the Saints defense WILL crack, just exactly like last time.
Also, nothing has changed about the turnover differential either, the Seahawks are one of the BEST at creating turnovers, and the Saints are one of the worst.
The media will focus on the strength on strength matchup of Seahawks secondary vs. Saints passing game, just as they did last time (how did that turn out BTW?!?) and just like last time, they will be focusing on the WRONG THING!
I said it last time we faced them, and I picked an easy Seahawks win, it's the Seahawks OFFENSE that will prove to be the big difference, because the Saints defense just does NOT have the talent to run with us.
The media will continue to talk about the wonderful job that Ryan has done for that Saints defense (that's fair, he has done a terrific job), while IGNORING the fact that the scheme he has employed to make the turnaround, is VERY risk intensive. Very high risk, constant blitzing etc... is what has changed that defense around.
That's important because Russell Wilson LOVES to exploit blitzes. In fact, as it has been reported and confirmed, time and time again, his numbers IMPROVE under pressure, and the big plays we get INCREASE against blitzes.
It's hard for me to gauge the Hawks' offense from the games since the previous Saints game. They couldn't get 20 against 2 top defenses late in the year (9ers and Cards) and were hovering around 25 against two average defenses (NY and St. Louis). The Saints have, statistically, one of the best defenses in the league (top 5 in YPG and PPG), but you're right that Wilson matches up very well against it. I think Willson coming back at TE would be huge, because we need threats in the quick passing game to handle the blitz.
In the end, given the weather on Saturday (rain and wind), I see something like 20-13 Hawks over the Saints.