HawkShack.com

Posted: **Tue Dec 01, 2015 4:48 pm**

They beat us, so I keep my mouth shut, but I didn't think they were that good and this backs me up so I'm posting it:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the ... tart-11-0/

Posted: **Tue Dec 01, 2015 5:14 pm**

burrrton wrote:They beat us, so I keep my mouth shut, but I didn't think they were that good and this backs me up so I'm posting it:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the ... tart-11-0/

True but a win is a win and 11-0 looks great compared to 6-5....maybe we can run off a 9-0 streak now. Would be nice to play them again and its generally warmer there in January.

Their record does make me wonder if Shula, Cszonka and others are getting the champagne cold.

Posted: **Tue Dec 01, 2015 6:42 pm**

I think they are legit. Maybe not 11-0 legit but I think that they are clearly the best team in the NFC, perhaps the only consistently good team in the league that hasn't really had a bad game.

But I'm with you in wanting a rematch. Despite losing to them in our house, I do like how we match up against them and wouldn't fret about going into their place in the playoffs. I like how we match up against them better than I do the Cards and Packers. We seem to have more trouble with smart, experienced quarterbacks than the young'uns.

Of course, all that is dependent on making the playoffs, and I am not yet fully convinced that we have turned things around. I want to see how we do against the Vikings before I make such a pronouncement.

Posted: **Tue Dec 01, 2015 7:38 pm**

No offense Burrrrton, but that article seemed silly. They are the worst of the best? I mean it feels like the title of the article should be: "Of all the undefeated teams (specifically after 11 games) in the super bowl era, the 2015 Panthers are probably the worst team to have a perfect record." It seems a weird topic after week 12 to me.

Had the Hawks gotten a friggin' first down in the 4th quarter (ONE...maybe 2) against the Panthers (with the roar of the 12s on their side), there would be no article about this perfect record....but there is, because we could not. Had the LOB been able to stop one of Cam's 4th quarter drives, there would be no article, but they let the QB who struggled against them ALL DAY long march right down their throats and score repeatedly... so there is an article about them being undefeated. If we played them this Sunday, I think the home team would win. But we do not. We had our chance to beat them, we needed to beat them, and yet we did not. Even though Cam played like dog ish for 3 quarters, he took the LOB to the wood shed in the 4th.

The article points out Cam's passer rating. It is as irrelevant as Russell's was when we went to back to back super bowls. He was around 8th or something that year and was 31st in passing attempts. But we won. We won because we had good balance of defense and an offense that was good enough. The Panthers have that now. They are 17th offensively in yards per game and the Seahawks are 8th..... But the Panthers are 3rd in points per game while the Hawks are 8th. The Panther D is 3rd in points allowed and 2nd in yards allowed. We are 8th in points allowed and 3rd in yards allowed.

RWs stats are better, but what does that get us?? RW's 67.7% completion percentage versus 57.2% for Cam. 8.4 yards per play for RW and 7.4 for Cam. 102.9 quarterback rating for RW and 89.5 for Cam. BUT................ 27 TDs for Cam compared to 18 for RW (8 of which came in the last two games). The Panthers have lost a lot of key players and they have been JUST LIKE THE HAWKS USED TO BE. STEADY. TOUGH TO SCORE ON. They have taken advantage of their opportunities and they have come from behind to WIN, not blown 5 4th quarter leads.

Props to the Panthers. I'm not any more afraid of them than I am the Vikings this weekend, but they have reached out and taken those victories in the exact same fashion that our boys used to. The Hawks could well get on a roll, go into Carolina and beat the Panthers.... they have the DNA to do it. Just like the Panthers - we have the stuff to win. It's just they have and we have not this year.

I say all of that to make this point. As crappy as this season has been, it really is not that much different from the last few years. save a handful of plays a game it could be the Seahawks with the worst best record in football and I would take that with pride just like the Panthers should.

Posted: **Tue Dec 01, 2015 8:20 pm**

Hawk Sista wrote:As crappy as this season has been, it really is not that much different from the last few years. save a handful of plays a game it could be the Seahawks with the worst best record in football and I would take that with pride just like the Panthers should.

A handful of plays? We have 5 losses, sis. Just how big is your handful? How many other teams can make a similar argument? The Patriots could say that in the singular.

We lost those games because we were not the better team, at least not on that given day. We lost for more reasons than just a 'handful' of plays.

Posted: **Tue Dec 01, 2015 8:58 pm**

No offense Burrrrton, but that article seemed silly.

Well, it *is* a little silly to cast aspersions on an undefeated team after week 11 in the NFL.

However, it's not one of those Bayless/Simmons/Futureite 'eye test' determinations that it's based on- it's stats, and hard stats at that.

Like I said, I'll never walk into a bar and try to argue any "Yeah, But...", but I just think it's interesting that I've been simmering under the covers about not thinking they were that good, and I found it satisfying to see the stats back me up.

They're a vulnerable team, 11-0 or not.

The article points out Cam's passer rating. It is as irrelevant as Russell's was when we went to back to back super bowls.

Er, RW's ratings were fine, even great- it was *only* raw yardage (owing to throwing half as much as everyone else) that was the knock on the Seahawks' passing game.

Cam's are downright weak- he completes a low percentage and so on.

I say all of that to make this point. As crappy as this season has been, it really is not that much different from the last few years. save a handful of plays a game it could be the Seahawks with the worst best record in football and I would take that with pride just like the Panthers should.

I'm not saying they don't have any claim to excellence- I'm just saying if we come around like I think we can (and have been doing the last couple weeks), I have *no* fear of Carolina at 17-0 or whatever they'd be if we faced them again (and I bet Vegas odds would favor us come that point assuming both teams win out).

[edit- Cam, not Kam.

Posted: **Tue Dec 01, 2015 10:25 pm**

RiverDog wrote:
A handful of plays? We have 5 losses, sis. Just how big is your handful? How many other teams can make a similar argument? The Patriots could say that in the singular.

We lost those games because we were not the better team, at least not on that given day. We lost for more reasons than just a 'handful' of plays.

How many fingers are on a hand RD? How many losses with leads in the 4th quarter? Exactly...................

Sis is absolutely right. One big play on either side of the ball in the 4th quarter probably wins 4 of those 5 and the only question mark is Green Bay. It could have been such a different year but it could still be very good if we get in the tournament. I wouldn't be afraid of playing anyone anywhere if this team is tough enough to get in.

Posted: **Wed Dec 02, 2015 5:01 am**

RiverDog wrote:
A handful of plays? We have 5 losses, sis. Just how big is your handful? How many other teams can make a similar argument? The Patriots could say that in the singular.

We lost those games because we were not the better team, at least not on that given day. We lost for more reasons than just a 'handful' of plays.

And how many of those losses were not within reach very late in the game? We had the lead in every one of them in the 4th quarter and nearly all could easily have been won if we'd made one more 3rd down conversion or hadn't given up another damn long pass because our LOB seem to have lost it ability to communicate the way they used to. Sis don't need big hands to hold the number of plays that could have our record looking like it has the last couple years ... hell Jason Pierre Paul could do it in what's left of his right hand.

Posted: **Wed Dec 02, 2015 9:17 am**

c_hawkbob wrote:And how many of those losses were not within reach very late in the game? We had the lead in every one of them in the 4th quarter and nearly all could easily have been won if we'd made one more 3rd down conversion or hadn't given up another damn long pass because our LOB seem to have lost it ability to communicate the way they used to. Sis don't need big hands to hold the number of plays that could have our record looking like it has the last couple years ... hell Jason Pierre Paul could do it in what's left of his right hand.

I read a stat somewhere that 46% of all NFL games are decided by one score or less. A quick check of Week 12 scores revealed that there were 7 of the 14 games decided by 8 or fewer points, Week 11 8 games, so being within reach late in the game isn't very novel or impressive. As the saying goes, close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.

My point is that there are several teams that can claim that they are just a handful of plays away from being 11-0. Certainly the Patriots can, as their only loss came last week in overtime. The Bengals have lost just two games this season, by a total of 7 points, the Cards have lost two by a total of 10. I would venture to say that they are just a "couple" of plays vs. our "handful" of being 11-0. Heck, even the 5-6 Giants have lost all but one of their 6 losses by a touchdown or less and the 6-5 Jets lost 4 of their 5 by one score. Our being close in a handful of games isn't very impressive when you look at the big picture.

The first half of this season has been a huge disappointment, at least to me. We've blown 4th quarter leads in all 5 of our losses this season, 6 games if you want to count the Lions game that by all rights we should have lost and 7 if you want to go all the way back to SB 49. IMO that's not acceptable, and I'm not going to trivialize our problems by claiming that we're just that close to being 11-0. Hopefully that trend was reversed last Sunday.

Posted: **Wed Dec 02, 2015 12:37 pm**

What can be said about other teams has no bearing whatsoever on the veracity of Sis' statement. None.

She was talking about the Seahawks and what she said was true, you reacted as though it were not.

That the same thing could be said for other teams, and to what greater or lesser degree it might be applicable is just not relevant. The point is that everyone that is whining so much about how much worse we are this year could benefit from the realization the the drop off doesn't need to be huge to have the effect on our overall record that we're seeing this year. We are not that far from the team we were last year and there is still the opportunity for us to round into that same level of competence come playoff time.

Because a thing is also true for someone else does not make it less true for us.

Posted: **Wed Dec 02, 2015 5:08 pm**

c_hawkbob wrote:What can be said about other teams has no bearing whatsoever on the veracity of Sis' statement. None.

She was talking about the Seahawks and what she said was true, you reacted as though it were not.

That the same thing could be said for other teams, and to what greater or lesser degree it might be applicable is just not relevant. The point is that everyone that is whining so much about how much worse we are this year could benefit from the realization the the drop off doesn't need to be huge to have the effect on our overall record that we're seeing this year. We are not that far from the team we were last year and there is still the opportunity for us to round into that same level of competence come playoff time.

Because a thing is also true for someone else does not make it less true for us.

What can be said about other teams may not have any bearing to sis's statement the way you are looking at it, but not the way I am. I was looking at her statement in comparison to the larger picture of the rest of the league, not in the microcosm of 1/32 of the league that you, and I assume she, is looking at.

I never said her statement was untrue, and I'm not sure how you could have come to the conclusion that I did. I was expressing my own opinion and disagreeing with hers, ie that the troubles of the first half of our season can be defined by a 'handful' of plays or that we are just that close to being 11-0. That's too simplistic IMO.

We were 4-5 in those first 9 games for a number of reasons, not just due to the bum luck of not having a handful of plays break our way. You make your own luck, and IMO the reason those handful of plays didn't break our way was because we weren't playing very good football. The last two games are encouraging, especially last Sunday, but I'm not completely convinced that we've turned the corner. We'll see.

Posted: **Wed Dec 02, 2015 9:53 pm**

http://www.fieldgulls.com/2015/12/2/983 ... easy-steps

Posted: **Thu Dec 03, 2015 12:52 am**

The Panthers are playing good football no matter how you look at it.
They are not the most talented team, but I would hardly dismiss them as some kind of fluke.
The team mojo is there.

Carolina's in a place where the collective focus and confidence is going strong, and trusting their instincts and decision making is at near peak.

Will it continue? Who knows. Their remaining schedule isn't that difficult, considering how well they've done so far.

That said, going undefeated heading into the playoffs is the worst thing they could do. That kind of pressure is too much for anybody to handle - the most recent example being the '07 Pats - who fell to the Giants straight up despite being double digit favorites in that SB.

Ideally for them, they drop a game to bring them back to earth, then start over.

So here's to the Panthers going 16-0.
It will end up being the kiss of death for the postseason.

Posted: **Thu Dec 03, 2015 6:16 am**

HumanCockroach wrote:http://www.fieldgulls.com/2015/12/2/9833246/how-the-seahawks-can-catch-the-cardinals-in-6-easy-steps

I read somewhere that the Cards chances of winning the division are at 93%, but I'm pretty sure that it assumes that all teams and all games are equal. Nevertheless, it illustrates how long the odds of catching them are. It's stating the obvious to say that we have to take care of business in Minnesota or else everything else is moot, so I'm not going start biting my fingernails while watching the scoreboard. Beat the Vikings and let everything else take care of itself.

Posted: **Thu Dec 03, 2015 9:08 am**

Yeah, I'm just planning on the WC at this point- too much ground to make up on ARI after they rolled and mocked us in our own stadium.

That it's at least mathematically possible to catch them keeps me optimistic, but it's the wildcard teams I'm watching most closely, not Zona.

Posted: **Thu Dec 03, 2015 9:50 am**

AZ lost both their running backs and they barely beat the 9ers.MOF if it weren't for a terrible roughing call they would likely have gone to overtime tied 13 all. AZ has made bank off a good running attack setting up Palmer on the deep routes off play action. I think their offense is going to suffer if they don't have a good run attack. Rams have been dreadful lately but this is a division game. If Seattle should win this Sunday and AZ loses I think it would really turn up the heat on AZ.

Lots of ball left.

Posted: **Thu Dec 03, 2015 12:20 pm**

Just posting the link. It isn't as farfetched as you might think. That said I don't think they'll catch them, but not out of the realm of possibilities either.

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