2016 NFL Official Hawk Draft Day Thread.

[monkey]

There's an inherent difference between football and baseball. Baseball has a very specific set of goals that lead to success- reaching first base after putting a ball into play, etc.

Football has no such well-defined criteria beyond "possessing the ball in the endzone" (or "beyond the first-down marker", etc) (the analog of which would be "touching your foot on home plate").

"Sibermetrics" have no use in football.

Sure, fine, succinctly sum up exactly what I just said without all the wordiness and fumbling attempts at clarity. See if I care!

Good post Burrton, you nailed it exactly.

[monkey]

Holy cow, we did it again!
Absolutely NAILED the eighth round. https://twitter.com/DavisHsuSeattle/status/726569073996234752/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Here's a more readable summary from Field Gulls. http://www.fieldgulls.com/2016/4/30/11545772/2016-nfl-undrafted-free-agent-tracker-seahawks-edition
There's NO ONE doing the UDFA better!

[burrrton]

Sure, fine, succinctly sum up exactly what I just said without all the wordiness and fumbling attempts at clarity. See if I care!

Hehe- I'm not sure I realized I wasn't adding anything to your point. Next time I'll just say "++".

[obiken]

Why do teams take the whole 10 minutes to draft a guy like Goff. Come on, they know in the 1st who they are going to take.

[monkey]

Hehe- I'm not sure I realized I wasn't adding anything to your point. Next time I'll just say "++".

LOL!
No, don't take it that way, just take it as, you said a LOT BETTER what I was trying to say.

[NorthHawk]

Why do teams take the whole 10 minutes to draft a guy like Goff. Come on, they know in the 1st who they are going to take.

I think it's an NFL thing. Stalling to create some sort of extra suspense, and maybe slip another couple of commercials in to boot.

[c_hawkbob]

Nah, there's just no reason not to give yourself all the time they allow to field any last minute offers.

[NorthHawk]

That doesn't make sense. They gave up a boatload of picks to get to #1, so why would they consider trading down?

[c_hawkbob]

What's so hard to understand about 'there's no reason not to'?

I don't think they would consider trading down, but maybe at the last minute someone channels their inner Mike Ditka and offers their entire draft ... the league says the time is yours, take it if you want it.

[NorthHawk]

So you're telling me that you would give up 1sts and 2nds in 2 future drafts + more picks to get to the top spot and get the guy you think will be the key to your future success, then not select him, but trade down at the last minute?
It's just not logical to do that, and I can't imagine any Front Office who put so much stake in getting the top pick and planning their picks in this draft around supporting that player, changing the plan they had in place for weeks in the last 10 minutes.
How would they explain that change of direction to the owner who in all probability had given the OK to get where they were?

[HumanCockroach]

And you're saying that if someone came in with an offer of the next three firsts and multiple second and thirds you wouldn't listen? There's always "more" North, in fact Philly gave up more for the second overall pick than St. Louis did for the first... Go figure.

[curmudgeon]

Why do teams take the whole 10 minutes to draft a guy like Goff. Come on, they know in the 1st who they are going to take.

League edict in order to manufacture suspense and drama for the talking heads at NFLN, ESPN, the TV crowd and all those in attendance.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SUXhca0_sI8

[c_hawkbob]

So you're telling me that you would give up 1sts and 2nds in 2 future drafts + more picks to get to the top spot and get the guy you think will be the key to your future success, then not select him, but trade down at the last minute?
It's just not logical to do that, and I can't imagine any Front Office who put so much stake in getting the top pick and planning their picks in this draft around supporting that player, changing the plan they had in place for weeks in the last 10 minutes.
How would they explain that change of direction to the owner who in all probability had given the OK to get where they were?

Oh god can we please stop this kinda sh!t? If that's what I was trying to tell you that's what I would have said fer chrissakes.

What I said, and ALL I was trying to tell you was that there is no reason NOT to take all the time you're allowed.

[NorthHawk]

And all I'm saying is it's not necessary after weeks or months of planning, then making a blockbuster trade to get to the top to get your man.
I can guarantee you very few owners would stand for that after going through the justifications of how they are going to spend his $150 million or thereabouts only to make a change in direction in 10 minutes.

[burrrton]

North, up until the exact moment your pick is officially submitted, the possibility still exists that someone could make you an offer you couldn't refuse- how is that so incomprehensible??

Of course we all knew who they were going to pick, but if you're allowed the time to wait, you take it- as someone else said, maybe someone more desperate than you gives you the world for your pick, or hell, maybe the news breaks that he beat the crap out of his girlfriend or something surprising like that that you didn't know about.

There are endless reasons to wait and none not to.

[HumanCockroach]

North what 150 million are you talking about? There is no 150 million dollar investment in rookies I'm aware about.

The truth is, even IF the guy you are planning on, that you gave up so much to position yourself to get, is worth a ton to you, he ISN'T worth everything, every player no matter how accomplished ( including guys like Brady, Wilson, Rodgers, etc) have a "value", much less a guy you're really high on, but has never taken a snap. The cost to pry those guys away may be insane or prohibitive, but there IS a price, why would it be different for some rookie that has never played a down? Safe bet that he won't be better than the others, yet every player has a value to their perspective clubs, why would a rookie be any different?

[NorthHawk]

The 150 million is the roster cost.
How you manage it is what the owner looks at.
It's his business and I'm sure every owner is watching how his staff manages his business.
I'm not sure many owners would stand for someone who makes plans, convinces him that the QB they are targeting will take them to a championship, then at the last minute changes their mind because they get more picks than they gave up and not get a player who they described as the missing piece of a championship team.

If a team had the first pick, and nobody has made an offer in the 3 months, it's improbable that they would do so at the last minute - but it's a small possibility. I'll concede that it would be far more probable if there were no consensus #1, or if the team at the top was loaded at that position. Those last minute trades rarely happen in the last few minutes and I can't ever remember a team in the modern era who traded up to the number 1 overall pick, then traded back down.

However, in this draft, the Rams gave up a lot of draft capital to move up to the first pick and they did so with the owner being on board.
As well, other teams had weeks to consider what it would cost to move up to #1, but did not make that move. With so much at stake, and after convincing the owner that they needed that QB to take the next step, they couldn't then turn around and say to the owner that we changed our mind, and someone else will have to do. As an owner how could he have confidence in how his staff is running his business? It plants a seed of doubt about how his business is being run.
This doesn't even take into account that if they did trade out, their entire draft strategy for the Rams would have to be changed to add in the new picks. In less than 10 minutes, they would have to recreate their draft board, review the scouting reports and decide on who to target in each new round.
It increases the fuster cluck potential exponentially.

I don't see any way the Rams would have traded out of #1 after all the work they did to trade up short of being offered someone like an Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, or Cam Newton quality QB and we all know that isn't going to happen. Therefore, they could have handed in their card within the first minute of the draft.
Maybe they did, and the NFL held onto it to try to add some more drama - and another commercial break. We know that the NFL told the Rams they didn't want them to tell who they were picking so as to create some drama, so why not stretch it out a few minutes longer to help the advertisers and maybe get more money next year?

[c_hawkbob]

We know that the NFL told the Rams they didn't want them to tell who they were picking so as to create some drama, so why not stretch it out a few minutes longer to help the advertisers and maybe get more money next year?

Do we know that? It's news to me.

[NorthHawk]

It was all over the news I was reading on multiple sources.

http://www.turfshowtimes.com/2016/4/26/ ... jared-goff
http://www.thescore.com/nfl/news/1015114
http://cover32.com/2016/04/26/can-rams- ... nfl-wants/

[c_hawkbob]

As usual those reports all trace back to the same single source (Sam Farmer), not that I don't buy it (not that I do either), but if it happened it's a new wrinkle. Teams traditionally (including last year, Winston was signed by the time the draft was over) disclose the pick early and begin contract negotiations well before the draft.

[HumanCockroach]

I don't see any way the Rams would have traded out of #1 after all the work they did to trade up

And I don't see how you can't see so I guess we're on equal footing.

As an analogy, let's say you needed a brand new car, you scrimped and saved, worked extra hours, penny pinched, read all the consumer reports etc, etc. The day finally comes and you go and buy your car, right after you get your keys someone offers you enough money for four of your cars, plus a new home, boat and multiple other luxuries. Would you take it? Would you at least listen? Despite the work spent on getting the car you wanted? If you claim you wouldn't even listen you're being dishonest with yourself... The claim that the "work" prohibits at least listening to offers its ridiculous.

[NorthHawk]

The better analogy would be planning with your boss for a car that is the only one that would make his business the best in the world, then just before signing the bill of sale you get an offer that you have to decide to take or not in 10 minutes or less. It's not your car, it's his, and you've convinced him it was the best chance to make his business the best. I think it inconceivable that a boss would be convinced in 10 minutes to wait another year or more to find another car that could do the same.
If it was an option, there would have by now been a number of trades back out of the #1 after trading up, but it rarely or has never happened in the modern era. I don't know of any team that has done that, and there must be a reason for it.

[HumanCockroach]

I suppose, if you throw in the new warehouse he needs, computers, added staff costs, and a car that is the same but a different color...

[HumanCockroach]

The better analogy would be planning with your boss for a car that is the only one that would make his business the best in the world, then just before signing the bill of sale you get an offer that you have to decide to take or not in 10 minutes or less. It's not your car, it's his, and you've convinced him it was the best chance to make his business the best. I think it inconceivable that a boss would be convinced in 10 minutes to wait another year or more to find another car that could do the same.
If it was an option, there would have by now been a number of trades back out of the #1 after trading up, but it rarely or has never happened in the modern era. I don't know of any team that has done that, and there must be a reason for it.

And yet the same amount ( if any) have ever been successful selections... So I'll ask, is it better to make a selection that has about a 1% chance of actually being worth that work invested, or possible 5 -7 choices? Isn't at least reasonable to LISTEN to offers? The idea that because of work invested, to not LISTEN to offers its incredibly naive. Do you personally think that the owner of an NFL franchise isn't intelligent enough to realize this is a last gasp at success from a coach and GM that have failed for the better part of a decade? Nah, the owner isn't completely lost on what they've accomplished, however I have little doubt that he would have been at least willing to listen to an offer. Who knows maybe the Saints throw a one year signed Brees at them and a couple firsts, no sense killing opportunities before you even know what they might be. Billionaires don't become billionaires by refusing to listen to offers.

[NorthHawk]

The point I'm not making clear is the Rams (or any team that pays a kings ransom to get the first pick) has hitched their wagon to only 1 player.
They have convinced the owner that the player they want at #1 is the messiah and is worth giving up future options for a couple of years. After all that work planning and getting the owner on board, there will be little chance they would trade out in the last 10 minutes. After all, they have convinced themselves and others this is the right path for the team.

If they give up on that player in the last 10 minutes to get a bunch of players that are considered lesser picks, the first questions from the owner would be something along the lines of "You convinced me weeks and months this player was the best for our team and is the only one who can take us to the championship. How are we going to get him now and what else are you lying to me about as you don't really believe he's the one to take us to the top?"
It's not only about the picks, it's about losing the confidence of the owner that you really have a solid and viable plan that you believe in and are willing to follow through with.

[obiken]

I agree, but Fischer is under the gun. He is not great coach but not a bad one either. He is however on his last leg, he needed this move. Moreover, they wanted to give the fans of LA some new excitement. I don't see Goff as having franchise written all over him. He was good not great QB. He was not Aaron Rogers at Cal, but he had more hype. This class of QB's was one of the worst I have seen in years. Now no one knows how they will transition to the NFL, everybody has a plan, till they get hit in the mouth. They will both get hit harder than they have ever been hit in their lives.
What I wonder NorthH, is IF this they would have made this move had they not moved to LA and stayed in STlous?

[NorthHawk]

I agree, but Fischer is under the gun. He is not great coach but not a bad one either. He is however on his last leg, he needed this move. Moreover, they wanted to give the fans of LA some new excitement. I don't see Goff as having franchise written all over him. He was good not great QB. He was not Aaron Rogers at Cal, but he had more hype. This class of QB's was one of the worst I have seen in years. Now no one knows how they will transition to the NFL, everybody has a plan, till they get hit in the mouth. They will both get hit harder than they have ever been hit in their lives.
What I wonder NorthH, is IF this they would have made this move had they not moved to LA and stayed in STlous?

That's a good question. I wonder if they would have done the same if Fisher was a new coach to the team and just signed a lucrative 5 year contract?
Owners would have more patience in that case, I would think.

[c_hawkbob]

The point I'm not making clear is the Rams (or any team that pays a kings ransom to get the first pick) has hitched their wagon to only 1 player.
They have convinced the owner that the player they want at #1 is the messiah and is worth giving up future options for a couple of years. After all that work planning and getting the owner on board, there will be little chance they would trade out in the last 10 minutes. After all, they have convinced themselves and others this is the right path for the team.

If they give up on that player in the last 10 minutes to get a bunch of players that are considered lesser picks, the first questions from the owner would be something along the lines of "You convinced me weeks and months this player was the best for our team and is the only one who can take us to the championship. How are we going to get him now and what else are you lying to me about as you don't really believe he's the one to take us to the top?"
It's not only about the picks, it's about losing the confidence of the owner that you really have a solid and viable plan that you believe in and are willing to follow through with.

I think you're making that perfectly clear, and it's not as though anyone is questioning that. But what you seem not to want to understand is that it doesn't impact one bit the fact that there is still no reason not to take all of the time you're allotted. None.

[NorthHawk]

I think you're making that perfectly clear, and it's not as though anyone is questioning that. But what you seem not to want to understand is that it doesn't impact one bit the fact that there is still no reason not to take all of the time you're allotted. None.

It impacts it greatly. It would mean another year without the player you are certain you really need to win.

To change your mind would show you doubt your own strategy and aren't committed to your beliefs in your scouting procedures and staff. The owner may doubt your commitment to winning considering you convinced him that single player will get you there.
There's no need to wait - unless the NFL asks you, presumably on my part for an added commercial break.

If you have the 1st pick because of a prior year incompetence, and not because you have given away future 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round picks, then it makes perfect sense to wait and hope for an offer. Look what the Browns did and how they gathered some real good talent to fill a lot of holes. The Rams, with their Defense might seriously consider they are only a QB away from challenging for the Division and Conference crown. Looking back at their last few years of QB play, they may be right.

[burrrton]

This has to be the most bizarre argument I've ever seen...

[mykc14]

This has to be the most bizarre argument I've ever seen...

Yeah, no kidding. Why Northhawk is choosing this hill to stand on is beyond me... It doesn't hurt at all to take the full allotment of time. Maybe they were waiting to see if a video of Goff smoking weed in a gas mask was going to be leaked onto social media... The worst case scenario in taking the full allotment of time is that you get the guy you traded up for. The best case scenario is that some body does something really really really stupid and offers you the world and then you at least get to consider it.

[NorthHawk]

It's about making a commitment and sticking with it.

How many teams have traded a lot of picks to get the 1st overall when targeting a single player then traded back out in the last 10 minutes to get more picks?
It's not going to happen, so waiting is a waste of time.

[HumanCockroach]

How many teams have traded a ton of picks, selected the player, and then had that player succeed?

[NorthHawk]

How many teams have traded a ton of picks, selected the player, and then had that player succeed?

We're talking about the process in selecting a player, not whether that player succeeds.

[burrrton]

We're talking about the process in selecting a player, not whether that player succeeds.

Yes, and that process is fallible no matter how much of a commitment you've made to selecting that player. You don't *know* whether you're getting a Russell Wilson or a Ryan Leaf.

As such, unless you think there's nothing that could be offered that would be of greater value to your franchise than that single draft pick (nor any news that could possibly come out about that player that would reflect negatively on him), there's no reason to not wait to announce your pick until you're required.

It's about making a commitment and sticking with it.

You're not "not sticking with it" if you use all of your allotted time.

[NorthHawk]

Yes, and that process is fallible no matter how much of a commitment you've made to selecting that player. You don't *know* whether you're getting a Russell Wilson or a Ryan Leaf.

As such, unless you think there's nothing that could be offered that would be of greater value to your franchise than that single draft pick (nor any news that could possibly come out about that player that would reflect negatively on him), there's no reason to not wait to announce your pick until you're required.

Hopefully they know if he's a flake like Leaf or a stud like Wilson, but I know what you are saying. Either way it's not germane to the discussion as they have decided who they want.
They decided on 1 QB. If there was a doubt, they would have traded up to #2 and probably paid less to mitigate the impact of a mistake.
The only thing that would be an option is if they were offered someone like Wilson, Newton, or Luck - and that's not going to happen.
There's no reason to wait.

You're not "not sticking with it" if you use all of your allotted time.

Yes, you are but you are wasting everyone's time. If you did trade out then you are not sticking with it.

[burrrton]

Either way it's not germane to the discussion as they have decided who they want.

It *is* germane because them "deciding who they want" doesn't mean there's no possibility something better could come along (or bad news could come to light, etc).

There's no reason to wait.

To honestly believe this, you'd have to think there's nothing better that even *could* be offered than some 21yo QB from Cal.

Them believing he's the best available option doesn't mean they must also think there is no better option that ever could become available.

If you did trade out then you are not sticking with it.

What honor would there be in "sticking with it" if someone offered you, say, their entire draft for the next 3 years for the pick?

[HumanCockroach]

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/15280 ... five-picks

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/15201 ... geles-rams

They decided on 1 QB. If there was a doubt, they would have traded up to #2 and probably paid less to mitigate the impact of a mistake

And yet it was Philly that sacrificed more to aquire the second pick. Why you're so hell bent on insisting that another team might not be more foolish than the Rams is beyond me. We aren't talking about trading the pick, simply LISTENING to offers, and protecting your investment ( ie some scandal that makes the guy you WERE going to select, undesirable. Is that really crazy in your mind? Didn't Tunsil plummet just this year? How about the lineman the Cowboys signed that fell from the "top player" to OUT of the draft entirely? It happens EVERY year. Why?)

Literally dozens of examples of foolish last minute trades during the course of NFL drafts ( ala Ricky Williams etc) a GM and owner would have to be an imbecile not to recognise that, and at least listen to what is offered.

[NorthHawk]

It's not about being more foolish. It's about locking into only 1 player.
That's what they did - they locked into Goff and had no intention of moving off that position.
Therefore why wait 10 minutes.

[c_hawkbob]

It's not about being more foolish. It's about locking into only 1 player.
That's what they did - they locked into Goff and had no intention of moving off that position.
Therefore why wait 10 minutes.

I have no idea how you can be so certain of that. Seems to me if that were the case they would have declared it so and begun negotiations to have a deal in place as is usually the case when a team actually has decided 100% on a player.