Russell VS. Luck, redux

[monkey]

http://espn.go.com/blog/seattle-seahawks/post/_/id/20644/russell-wilson-versus-andrew-luck-breaking-down-numbers
A superb article following up another superb article
http://espn.go.com/blog/seattle-seahawks/post/_/id/20605/russell-wilson-has-edge-over-andrew-luck-through-first-four-seasons

Sheil Kapaedia at ESPN is a breath of fresh air. He really is. Every so often we get lucky, and we get a beat reporter who is just outstanding.

[RiverDog]

Good articles, monkey.

You don't have to talk me into who's the better QB, Luck or Wilson, by using a bunch of stats. I'll go by Futureite's eye test.

[burrrton]

Nice follow-up- thanks for posting, monkey!

[EmeraldBullet]

I have never really been impressed with Luck (NFL, he was great in college). If I was colts GM I would've considered using some of that money on a new OL.

[RiverDog]

I have never really been impressed with Luck (NFL, he was great in college). If I was colts GM I would've considered using some of that money on a new OL.

Actually I have been impressed by Luck. IMO he's a solid, Pro Bowl quality QB that 20+ teams would love to get their hands on, and Indy was wise to lock him up. But he's not a top 5 QB, at least not yet.

[monkey]

I've always been impressed by Luck, just not as impressed as most media members seem to be.
I think Luck's ceiling is as high as any QB I've ever seen, but he's not there yet, not close.
Wilson is HANDS DOWN the better QB, and most likely, always will be, as he's getting better every season, and on a team with a wide open window for a long time.
Luck...well he's getting paid. He's getting paid a lot, but the team around him isn't good and won't be, because he's getting paid.
First it was suck for Luck, now it's suck WITH Luck.

[EmeraldBullet]

He seems like a huge injury risk. For as tough as he is supposed to be I've seen a lot of missed games. You can blame much of that on the OL, but like I said, if I was GM I would figure out the OL issue before signing a "top" qb to be a sitting duck again.

[RiverDog]

He seems like a huge injury risk. For as tough as he is supposed to be I've seen a lot of missed games. You can blame much of that on the OL, but like I said, if I was GM I would figure out the OL issue before signing a "top" qb to be a sitting duck again.

That I agree with. I do think that Wilson's being "vertically challenged' is an advantage compared to someone like the 6'5" Andrew Luck when it comes to injury risk. Russell isn't as exposed as Luck is, doesn't put the same degree of stress on his knees as Luck does, his short height allows him to elude hits.

I think about some of the short quarterbacks, guys like Tarkenton, Doug Flutie, Drew Brees, and none of them seemed to be particularly injury prone.

[Hawktawk]

Russ is twice as smart as Luck too. With his body and his decision making. Its not a close comparison. Luck is extremely solid and a top half of the league QB but he isn't top 5 in my opinion and I just don't see this magical high ceiling. He is as good as hes going to get.

[monkey]

Russ is twice as smart as Luck too. With his body and his decision making. Its not a close comparison. Luck is extremely solid and a top half of the league QB but he isn't top 5 in my opinion and I just don't see this magical high ceiling. He is as good as hes going to get.

Not sure I agree with that actually, I don't think Luck has come close to being as good as he can be. I do think that he might never reach his potential, in part because of the team around him. I wouldn't underestimate hi, though, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him have a big time bounce back season this year. I sort of expect it actually.

Still, no matter what Luck does this season, he's got as long ways to catch up to where Russell Wilson is right now, and what worse is, if Luck has his best season this year (very possible), it won't be enough to catch Wilson, who I DEFINITELY think is about to have his best season.
Like I said, I think this year Wilson wins the MVP award. I truly believe that. If I were a betting man, I'd plop a lot of money down on that bet.

[Zorn76]

Among other things, RW has a Clear advantage over Luck ( and any number of other starting QB's), by being much tougher mentally. Wilson's psyche, determination, and focus has as much to do with his success as anything else, IMO.

[obiken]

No doubt as a passer Luck has more pure untapped talent. RW however, is the better QB. No I wouldnt trade Luck for RW. He's our guy and we love him!

[burrrton]

No doubt as a passer Luck has more pure untapped talent.

Not to argue with you specifically about this, obi, but is there really any support for this bit of conventional wisdom anymore?

RW has been better than Luck in virtually every statistical category that doesn't rely on raw attempts every year they've been in the NFL- hell, he was even better than him when he was at Wisconsin.

So if Wilson has been better than Luck in every statistic that would measure "passing talent" (completion pct, YDS/A, TDs, INTs, passer rating, etc) at every level they've played at, how is there no doubt Luck has more pure talent?

Again, this isn't attacking you- you're not the only one that holds that opinion. I just think that statement is something that's been shown to have been incorrect from the start.

[RiverDog]

Russell's passing attempts have gone up steadily for his first 4 years yet his interceptions ratio, rating, and so forth have either remained the same or increased, so this "only a game manager" argument ala Futureite is losing more and more statistical ground by which to base an argument on. It would be extremely difficult to keep him out of a Top 5, if not a Top 3 discussion.

[obiken]

Russell's passing attempts have gone up steadily for his first 4 years yet his interceptions ratio, rating, and so forth have either remained the same or increased, so this "only a game manager" argument ala Futureite is losing more and more statistical ground by which to base an argument on. It would be extremely difficult to keep him out of a Top 5, if not a Top 3 discussion.

Then why dont the analyst see that?? ESPN, FOX, NBC, etc etc?

[jshawaii22]

You'd be surprised at how many on NFL Network view Russell as top 5, with Mike Rob and a few other former players all being Russell followers. ESPN is based on the East Coast... what do you expect? One exception is Coach and soon to be HOF'er Herm Edwards, but most of the talking heads probably didn't see the team's last 8 games as closely as we did nor do they follow the overall stats as closely. They have 'stat' departments to feed them what to say.