by monkey » Sat Jan 25, 2014 11:01 am
I've said this before in another thread, but it still holds true.
Had the Niners won instead of us, they'd be favored by at least two points right now, I guarantee it.
The Seahawks actually opened favored by 2, but then big Denver money came in and moved the line. What Vegas actually believes, along with the vast majority of experts is that Seattle will win.
What is going on here is, Seattle is disliked, actively disliked at least partly if not mostly because of what Sherm said after that win. Betters put money down basically saying, "I hope Manning shuts that fool up!"
Also, whenever someone as well known as Manning is involved, people who don't normally bet, people who don't know much about the game but want to make a fun Superbowl bet, those people are going to bet on the name they know and like. Peyton Manning. That is actually by far the biggest reason the Broncos are favored...rubes who don't know football betting on Manning just because they know him and like him.
Now, had the Niners won, the popularity of the Niners team, and the fact that they were in the Bowl just last year would offset much of Peyton's popularity. The size of San Fran's fan base nationally compared to Seattles would also help to tip the scales.
The truth is, as all the experts who REALLY know the game will tell you, the real Superbowl was the NFC championship. The two best teams in football played each other and Seattle won.
Now of course that does NOT mean that Seattle will win, there are a lot of reasons that might not happen, and as we all know, the best team doesn't always win...BUT the Seahawks ARE IN FACT the better team. Easily.
The Broncos are all about one thing, their passing game. That's really all they have is the best QB to ever play, and a group of very good receivers. In every other area (except possibly the Denver D-line vs Seattle's O-Line...that scares me a little actually), Seattle is much better.
Normally, even the betting public who aren't all that well informed would bet on the better team...but Manning is a household name, the Broncos are a more beloved team nationally by far, and the Seahawks have people now actively rooting against them.
They also have a media fed perception about their offense, that Wilson stinks all-of-a-sudden, and that the Seahawks aren't "hot" (whatever the hell that means!) The media also started IMMEDIATELY after the Seahawks won, telling everyone who would listen that the Broncos run Defense is awesome. Which of course, is a huge exaggeration; the Broncos have a fine run defense, but the run defense is good, at the expense of a good pass defense.
If San Fran and the Saints couldn't stop Lynch, then you can FORGET about the Broncos doing it!!! Both of those teams are much better defensively, but especially the Niners who have one of the games best defenses.
Point is, there are going to be a LOT of very dissapointed bettors after the Superbowl, but Vegas is going to (as always) make out BIG TIME!
I've heard now three different Vegas people, guys who do this stuff professionally say that if you have a clue, you're betting the Seahawks, but it seems no one is listening.