Russell Wilson greatest 4th quarter QB

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Russell Wilson greatest 4th quarter QB

Postby HumanCockroach » Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:17 am

Russell Wilson is an absolutely great 4th quarter QB, amazing, HOF worthy.... problem is, he's a mediocre to below mediocre QB the other 75% of the time. 29 TD throws, 17 of which have come in the fourth quarter. That means 12tds and 10 interceptions in 39 quarters of football, and 17 and 1 in the other 13... unfortunately, expecting a banged up defense to carry a football team for 3 quarters week in and week out, simply isn't a winning recipe.

I wish it was an outlier performance, but the truth is, it's been this way since the NFC championship game against GB, making complete game performances the outlier. You can blame the injuries, the line, the FG kicker etc, they all have had bad games, and deserve their share of the blame, however week in and week out, there's ONE player struggling for 3/4s of the game to play well.

This isn't a Wilson bashing thread, I love the guy, but the truth is, with a banged up defense, an erratic running game, and slow developing line, Wilson simply HAS to be better, to be considered great. Great QBs raise the level of the players around them, and not just in the fourth quarter. Wilson has professed a desire to be one of the best to play the game, until he consistently performs at a level commiserate with those players regularly for entire games, he simply cannot be.

It's unfortunate, but true. 10 points or less every three quarters doesn't cut it, regardless of how good a defense is, and I think it's safe to say, while pretty good, this version isn't approaching that level. So with a 48-3 record when leading by 4 points at half time, it would be fantastic if he shook off the doldrums of the last two seasons ( unfortunately the norm for him now) and started playing football at the FIRST snap of the game. It's simply the only way he'll ever attain that status.

GO HAWKS?!?
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Re: Russell Wilson greatest 4th quarter QB

Postby RiverDog » Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:09 am

Nice to see you posting again, HC.

I couldn't agree more with your comments. I'll also add that on many occasions, the defense changes in the 4th quarter, either by design or by the player's mentality, if they are protecting a 2+ score lead as was the case last Sunday, making it easier to run up the offensive stats.

And of course, it's not just Russell that's a 25% player, it's a team problem as well.
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Re: Russell Wilson greatest 4th quarter QB

Postby Largent80 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:49 am

This team was built on the running game and strong defense.

Running game is just now starting to look like one with only 3 games to go.

The defense has so many key injuries that it is amazing we can even hang in games. But when you see a VERY average QB like Bortles have the kind of day he had, it's not a good sign and neither is the fact about RW.

Pete wants to keep trotting Bevell out as OC when he should have been long gone after the call in SB 49. The rest of the league has copied, and passed us, and Pete is so enamored with loyalty that he's blinded by it.

RW should NOT be the sole weapon but it is what it is.
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Re: Russell Wilson greatest 4th quarter QB

Postby RiverDog » Wed Dec 13, 2017 6:44 am

Largent80 wrote:This team was built on the running game and strong defense.

Running game is just now starting to look like one with only 3 games to go.

The defense has so many key injuries that it is amazing we can even hang in games. But when you see a VERY average QB like Bortles have the kind of day he had, it's not a good sign and neither is the fact about RW.

Pete wants to keep trotting Bevell out as OC when he should have been long gone after the call in SB 49. The rest of the league has copied, and passed us, and Pete is so enamored with loyalty that he's blinded by it.

RW should NOT be the sole weapon but it is what it is.


It's improved, but just by baby steps and not enough to make that improvement much more than a statistical anomaly. Our running game is still heavily dependent on Russell Wilson's scrambles and improvised runs. Take those yards out of the equation and we're still not breaking 100 yards rushing. Rushing yards minus Russell equaled 50 vs. the Falcons, 65 vs. the Niners, 70 vs. the Eagles, and 91 vs. the Jags.

I agree with you, that we should be so dependent on one player making Houdini like plays to sustain us. But for the time being, we're going to have to rely on Russell if we want to go anywhere, and he has to play better in the first 3 quarters.
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Re: Russell Wilson greatest 4th quarter QB

Postby idhawkman » Wed Dec 13, 2017 7:00 am

TOTALLY AGREE WITH THE OP.

I've been saying this for quite some time and have caught a lot of flak from other forums because I won't dub RW as "elite". In my mind, elite players play all 4 quarters of a game and not just one. We all know the PC mantra of "you can't win it in the 1st qtr, you can't win it in the 2nd qtr, you can't win it in the 3rd qtr but you sure can win it in the 4th qtr." Well, that is now how the team plays. They do NOT "compete" all the time.
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Re: Russell Wilson greatest 4th quarter QB

Postby Sox-n-hawks » Wed Dec 13, 2017 7:17 am

Because the OC could kill ANY scoring drive. Look at how we were gashing the Jax defense with Adams, then he pulls that halfback pass BS. PSSST if something works DO IT. Instead, we trick ourselves into not scoring... rely on the defense and boom.. next thing we know the defense is banged up, the offense is down by a score or two and RW HAS to comeback. Let the offense fly I say. Before RW ends up injured again.
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Re: Russell Wilson greatest 4th quarter QB

Postby Largent80 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 7:32 am

Sox-n-hawks wrote:Because the OC could kill ANY scoring drive. Look at how we were gashing the Jax defense with Adams, then he pulls that halfback pass BS. PSSST if something works DO IT. Instead, we trick ourselves into not scoring... rely on the defense and boom.. next thing we know the defense is banged up, the offense is down by a score or two and RW HAS to comeback. Let the offense fly I say. Before RW ends up injured again.


One GAZILLiON times this.
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Re: Russell Wilson greatest 4th quarter QB

Postby c_hawkbob » Wed Dec 13, 2017 7:55 am

I don't agree that Russ is "a mediocre to below mediocre QB the other 75% of the time". He's at least very good the other 75 percent of the time.
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Re: Russell Wilson greatest 4th quarter QB

Postby Hawktawk » Wed Dec 13, 2017 8:43 am

All the greats have great 4th quarters and lots of comebacks. "the drive" that cemented John Elway's legacy happened because they were trailing like all those stories of NFL lore.
Russ is that type of guy X100. Is it him? Bevell? combination? There's no way to know but both are clearly 4th quarter guys.

It bears noting Russ also broke the NFL record for wins in his first 6 years. with 3 to go and hopefully the postseason one would think Russ will pad those #s even more.
And he's the most efficient intelligent scrambling QB of all time, gashing teams over and over while absorbing almost no punishment unless the game is on the line in which case he will go head first.

Russ is elite. Id trade him for nobody. He had a bad game which for him is 271 yds , 3 TDs 3 picks and 65 yards rushing. He's still been involved in all but 1 offensive TD the entire season.
6 more years at this pace he's a first ballot HOF guy.

Maybe Carroll needs to quit kicking off to start the game all the time. I remeber vs Atlanta in the playoffs Seattle got the opening kick and stuffed it right down their throats. They took control of the game until the BS hold call on the 90 yd Hester return and the safety.
Why not change things up some?
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Re: Russell Wilson greatest 4th quarter QB

Postby mykc14 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:35 am

To me it is a team mentality for the first half of games. I've always called it Peteball and it is even more pronounced in road games. The teams philosophy is to test the waters so that they can make their half-time adjustments and not to make any big mistakes that can turn into points for the other team. RW does not make the throws he makes in the 4th quarter the other 2 or three quarters. He doesn't try to fit the ball into tight windows the play calling is clearly not nearly as aggressive.
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Re: Russell Wilson greatest 4th quarter QB

Postby mykc14 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:56 am

HumanCockroach wrote: unfortunately, expecting a banged up defense to carry a football team for 3 quarters week in and week out, simply isn't a winning recipe.


GO HAWKS?!?


I agree with this and I hope PC is beginning to see this but he believes in his system/philosophy and rarely goes against it. He wants to run the ball and control the game with TOP and and a D that doesn't give up big plays and makes you work for every yard. It is a good system and clearly works... if you have a run game and your D is stout. I do remember a few times he has changed his philosophy. There was a stretch when T-Jack was the starting QB (right after the browns game that we lost like 3-9) and PC admitted that we played better in the no-huddle and the team used that as their primary offense for a while. Another time was when RW went on that hot streak to end the 2015 season. The Hawks became a pass first team that resembled a West Coast quick passing offense. Then we played the FREEZING wild card game in Minnesota with very little offense and a terrible 3 quarters against the Panthers in the Divisional round that eventually led to a 1 score loss. The common denominator in those instances was the fact that Seattle's back was against the wall. They didn't have anymore time to figure it out. The instance with T-Jack we were 2-4 and couldn't really afford to lose another game. In 2015 we were 4-5 and were almost out of the playoff picture before winning 6 of 7.

With all of that being said I don't think PC changes anything at this point. He is exactly where the team wants to be, controlling their own destiny in week 15...
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Re: Russell Wilson greatest 4th quarter QB

Postby NorthHawk » Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:57 am

idhawkman wrote:TOTALLY AGREE WITH THE OP.

I've been saying this for quite some time and have caught a lot of flak from other forums because I won't dub RW as "elite". In my mind, elite players play all 4 quarters of a game and not just one. We all know the PC mantra of "you can't win it in the 1st qtr, you can't win it in the 2nd qtr, you can't win it in the 3rd qtr but you sure can win it in the 4th qtr." Well, that is now how the team plays. They do NOT "compete" all the time.


He does start slow, but I think a lot of that is the play calling which includes many scripted plays. I've heard the first 15 which would take us near the end of the 1st Quarter if the other team had a long drive and we had a couple of 3 and outs.
You would think they would practice the he!! out of those first plays so there are no mental errors and the timing is perfect, but it doesn't seem that's the case. At least the results don't show it.
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Re: Russell Wilson greatest 4th quarter QB

Postby mykc14 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:09 am

NorthHawk wrote:He does start slow, but I think a lot of that is the play calling which includes many scripted plays. I've heard the first 15 which would take us near the end of the 1st Quarter if the other team had a long drive and we had a couple of 3 and outs.
You would think they would practice the he!! out of those first plays so there are no mental errors and the timing is perfect, but it doesn't seem that's the case. At least the results don't show it.


I don't know how many plays they script, but there are different ways to script plays. A lot of people think a play caller watches film sees weakness and scripts plays that will/should work against the other teams Defense/weaknesses. This does happen and can be successful, but given our teams philosophy of 'probing' for the first half I feel like our plays are scripted for a different purpose. Put different things out there offensively and see how they react defensively. Formations/plays whatever. The goal is still to score (DUH!!) but the real focus is to set up plays for later in games and see how the defense is lining up against what you are doing offensively so that you can put in the plays that will work for the REST of the game. In other words you don't put out your 15 best plays that you are really excited about using during your script you actually save those for later. I don't know if this is the case for sure, just my guess based on what I have seen/hear/read about PC's overall philosophy.
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Re: Russell Wilson greatest 4th quarter QB

Postby NorthHawk » Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:37 am

Sounds probable that it's for probing and watching the Defense's reaction as early on they don't seem to do very well - except for a few occasions.
This could be a negative factor in early production expectations.
I would hope they would really practice these plays until they are almost perfect as a successful play will probably be better in setting up another play later on than one that is a negative.
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Re: Russell Wilson greatest 4th quarter QB

Postby Hawk Sista » Wed Dec 13, 2017 12:18 pm

I’m w/ Bob. RW is asked to do so much, and he does so much that claiming him mediocre for 3/4 of every game is a little much. I wouldn’t trade him for anyone. Not only does he have more wins in his 1st six years, or that he’s the fastest player to reach 50 wins, he’s 2nd all-time in passer rating. All-time! This team, w/ 5 pro-bowlers out, is just not as good as they once were. But w/ RW as our QB, we still have a shot at the post-season and a winning record. Remember the 90’s?

It’s nice to see you post, HC. Sorry for taking the other side on this one. ;)
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Re: Russell Wilson greatest 4th quarter QB

Postby idhawkman » Wed Dec 13, 2017 4:46 pm

c_hawkbob wrote:I don't agree that Russ is "a mediocre to below mediocre QB the other 75% of the time". He's at least very good the other 75 percent of the time.


He may well be but his numbers as the OP points out, don't bear that out.
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Re: Russell Wilson greatest 4th quarter QB

Postby c_hawkbob » Wed Dec 13, 2017 7:08 pm

idhawkman wrote:
He may well be but his numbers as the OP points out, don't bear that out.


Not buying that either, I'd have to see all of the numbers to believe that, not just TDs and INTs.
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Re: Russell Wilson greatest 4th quarter QB

Postby Sox-n-hawks » Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:28 pm

c_hawkbob wrote:
Not buying that either, I'd have to see all of the numbers to believe that, not just TDs and INTs.


Guess who holds the record for the most Interceptions in NFL history........
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Re: Russell Wilson greatest 4th quarter QB

Postby mykc14 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:04 pm

Sox-n-hawks wrote:
Guess who holds the record for the most Interceptions in NFL history........


Interceptions thrown? Gotta be HOFer Brett Favre, right?
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Re: Russell Wilson greatest 4th quarter QB

Postby Sox-n-hawks » Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:39 pm

mykc14 wrote:
Interceptions thrown? Gotta be HOFer Brett Favre, right?


Yup, and guess who was the QB/Ass-QB coach in Green Bay for a number of years? If you guessed Daryl Bevell... you’re correct.
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Re: Russell Wilson greatest 4th quarter QB

Postby RiverDog » Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:43 am

It might sound like an oxymoron, but I don't think RW is elite and would rank him somewhere between #4 and #10 of current NFL QB's. However, I wouldn't trade him for anyone, in part due to his play...in a tight game, his ability to scramble and improvise is priceless... and in part because he's such a great guy that I want him on our team.
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Re: Russell Wilson greatest 4th quarter QB

Postby Sox-n-hawks » Thu Dec 14, 2017 6:48 am

RiverDog wrote:It might sound like an oxymoron, but I don't think RW is elite and would rank him somewhere between #4 and #10 of current NFL QB's. However, I wouldn't trade him for anyone, in part due to his play...in a tight game, his ability to scramble and improvise is priceless... and in part because he's such a great guy that I want him on our team.



I would be able to agree with this if he was a flash in the pan. One season and done. However, we're going on 6 seasons of elite play (he set the single season FBS record in Wisconsin the only year he played there so I'll count that.) This past offseason was make or break for him. RW showed the work ethic of an elite QB by losing weight, improving mobility and getting rid of the injury bug. He did not go the route of guys like Michael Vick, RG3 or others who have a season with an injury and go from great to mediocre in the bat of an eye. Your reasons for not wanting to trade him are the exact reasons guys like Joe Montana, Brett Favre, John Elway (4q king) are elite. RW is a legitimate HOF contender if Bevell doesn't get him killed on the field through poor game plans and Tom Cable doesn't get him killed by a lack of O-Line development.

3 Pro Bowls in his first 4 years in the league and it would likely have been four if he wasn't injured.

Over 21,000 passing yards already

Every time I see a metric with his name, the guys around it are HOF caliber QBs

Let's see your Top Ten list of current QBs......My top QBs look like this

1. Tom Brady
2. Drew Brees
2. Russell Wilson
2. Aaron Rogers
5. Matt Ryan
6. Ben Roethlisberger
7. Eli Manning
8. Matt Stafford
9. Cam Newton
10. Carson Palmer
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Re: Russell Wilson greatest 4th quarter QB

Postby RiverDog » Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:42 am

Sox-n-hawks wrote:Let's see your Top Ten list of current QBs......My top QBs look like this

1. Tom Brady
2. Drew Brees
2. Russell Wilson
2. Aaron Rogers
5. Matt Ryan
6. Ben Roethlisberger
7. Eli Manning
8. Matt Stafford
9. Cam Newton
10. Carson Palmer


Just taking your names, I'll re-arrange them according to my ranking:

1. Brady
2. Rodgers
3. Brees
4. Worthlessburger
5. Russell
6. Ryan
7. Newton
8. Stafford
9. Manning
10. Palmer

However, if I considered the younger QB's and didn't consider longevity , I'd be tossing Watson and Wentz in there. I'd also put Palmer way, way down in the 20's simply due to his inabilit to stay on the field.
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Re: Russell Wilson greatest 4th quarter QB

Postby HumanCockroach » Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:09 pm

Sorry but a QBR sub 75, with a 12 to 10 TD to interception ratio, below 60% completion percentage, and a single TD every 3+ quarters of football, with an interception every 3- quarters of football is by definition, mediocre to below mediocre. In ANY objective football fans mind. Except perhaps a specific poster on this forum. It isn't good enough to be even discussed in elite, or great debates. Saying otherwise is simply dishonest and make believe.

I'm not saying Wilson isn't a good QB, his will to win is incredible, and right now there isn't a single QB in the league I would rather have, once age, and everything else is considered, problem is, that that in and of itself, doesn't make Wilson great or elite, it merely weighs all factors. Personally I prefer a QB that's solid, or even really good for three quarters, with a killer fourth quarter instinct, than EJ Manuel for three, followed by a single quarter of greatness.
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Re: Russell Wilson greatest 4th quarter QB

Postby HumanCockroach » Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:25 pm


I would be able to agree with this if he was a flash in the pan. One season and done. However, we're going on 6 seasons of elite play (he set the single season FBS record in Wisconsin the only year he played there so I'll count that.) This past offseason was make or break for him. RW showed the work ethic of an elite QB by losing weight, improving mobility and getting rid of the injury bug. He did not go the route of guys like Michael Vick, RG3 or others who have a season with an injury and go from great to mediocre in the bat of an eye. Your reasons for not wanting to trade him are the exact reasons guys like Joe Montana, Brett Favre, John Elway (4q king) are elite. RW is a legitimate HOF contender if Bevell doesn't get him killed on the field through poor game plans and Tom Cable doesn't get him killed by a lack of O-Line development. 

3 Pro Bowls in his first 4 years in the league and it would likely have been four if he wasn't injured.

Over 21,000 passing yards already

Every time I see a metric with his name, the guys around it are HOF caliber QBs

Let's see your Top Ten list of current QBs......My top QBs look like this

1. Tom Brady
2. Drew Brees
2. Russell Wilson
2. Aaron Rogers 
5. Matt Ryan
6. Ben Roethlisberger
7. Eli Manning 
8. Matt Stafford
9. Cam Newton
10. Carson Palmer


Sox-n-hawks 85 Fri Oct 13, 2017 5:27 am Pacific NW





The problem is, you seem to be missing that you haven't seen six seasons of elite play, you've seen 3, a rookie year, and the last two seasons of 75% mediocre to below play, with some 4th quarter magic. It is fantastic that he can play like that in the 4th, but I'm inclined to ask, how many points on average is Seattle losing by, and how many of those losses are a direct result of horrible turnovers, inability to find open receivers, continually looking for the big 50/50 plays down the field instead of taking the wide open first down staring him in the face, hell, generously 40% of those sacks are on Wilson and his desire to get a "bigger " play, leaving clean pockets, bypassing open receivers, refusing to throw the ball away....

You can look at all those stats, claim HOF, and there's a valid argument to be made, IF you aren't watching the games, and looking at stats alone. Ultimately, elite, bona fide HOF And are CONSISTENTLY great, CONSISTENTLY raising the level of play. They may have bad games here and there, happens to everybody, but what they don't do, is throw balls directly into DBs guts, they don't intentionally ground the ball while being sacked 5 out of 6 games, they don't only play one quarter of football week and week out for two FULL seasons....

currently, Wilson has played ONE game this season, well, through four quarters, do you really believe it's coincidence that that particular game is the only game Seattle has dominated from start to finish? Seattle has walked in to half trailing teams like the Colts, NYGs, tied with SF... truly the dregs of the NFL. Simply no way to believe that's good enough, or even remotely close to good enough.
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Re: Russell Wilson greatest 4th quarter QB

Postby Hawktawk » Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:58 pm

Russ needs 18 rushing yards and 1 td pass to be the first man in the history of the NFL to have 30 td passes and 500 yards rushing in 2 seasons. I trade him for nobody. He’s hall of fame bound imo and already holds numerous dual threat QB records like first man to rush for 100 and pass for 200 on MNF. First man to pass for 300 and rush for 100 in history.
The guy had one bad game and he’s suddenly bad to mediocre. He’s the greatest dual threat QB of all time.


You people are so spoiled. I remember guys like gelbaugh and McGuire and kemp. Even our second and third best ever Hass and Krieg can’t touch him. Aside from Wilson’s athletic ability it is his belief system that brings wins even with his D game. It’s why they almost never get blown out. When Hass and Krieg started slow you knew it was going to be a long day. Russ has a HOF attitude.
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Re: Russell Wilson greatest 4th quarter QB

Postby Sox-n-hawks » Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:21 pm

HumanCockroach wrote:
The problem is, you seem to be missing that you haven't seen six seasons of elite play, you've seen 3, a rookie year, and the last two seasons of 75% mediocre to below play, with some 4th quarter magic. It is fantastic that he can play like that in the 4th, but I'm inclined to ask, how many points on average is Seattle losing by, and how many of those losses are a direct result of horrible turnovers, inability to find open receivers, continually looking for the big 50/50 plays down the field instead of taking the wide open first down staring him in the face, hell, generously 40% of those sacks are on Wilson and his desire to get a "bigger " play, leaving clean pockets, bypassing open receivers, refusing to throw the ball away....

You can look at all those stats, claim HOF, and there's a valid argument to be made, IF you aren't watching the games, and looking at stats alone. Ultimately, elite, bona fide HOF And are CONSISTENTLY great, CONSISTENTLY raising the level of play. They may have bad games here and there, happens to everybody, but what they don't do, is throw balls directly into DBs guts, they don't intentionally ground the ball while being sacked 5 out of 6 games, they don't only play one quarter of football week and week out for two FULL seasons....

currently, Wilson has played ONE game this season, well, through four quarters, do you really believe it's coincidence that that particular game is the only game Seattle has dominated from start to finish? Seattle has walked in to half trailing teams like the Colts, NYGs, tied with SF... truly the dregs of the NFL. Simply no way to believe that's good enough, or even remotely close to good enough.


By that definition you're saying Favre and Elway aren't elite or HOF worthy. They spent entire SEASONs winning on 4th quarter guts. Favre was hindered by Bevell as well. F*** that guy. Give Russ a line that doesn't zone block and a play-caller with even half a brain and he looks good in all four quarters. He's a rockstar considering the situation he's in.
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Re: Russell Wilson greatest 4th quarter QB

Postby RiverDog » Thu Dec 14, 2017 6:12 pm

Hawktawk wrote:Russ needs 18 rushing yards and 1 td pass to be the first man in the history of the NFL to have 30 td passes and 500 yards rushing in 2 seasons. I trade him for nobody. He’s hall of fame bound imo and already holds numerous dual threat QB records like first man to rush for 100 and pass for 200 on MNF. First man to pass for 300 and rush for 100 in history.
The guy had one bad game and he’s suddenly bad to mediocre. He’s the greatest dual threat QB of all time.


You people are so spoiled. I remember guys like gelbaugh and McGuire and kemp. Even our second and third best ever Hass and Krieg can’t touch him. Aside from Wilson’s athletic ability it is his belief system that brings wins even with his D game. It’s why they almost never get blown out. When Hass and Krieg started slow you knew it was going to be a long day. Russ has a HOF attitude.


The running/passing stats are nice and says a lot about Russell's first few seasons, but they are a little deceptive when looked at long term. The read option is a relatively recent innovation, and there were plenty of QB's in the recent past that could have ran it, at least in their first 6-8 year as Russell has. John Elway and Joe Montana were very good athletes coming out of college, especially Elway, whom was a tremendous all around athlete when he hit the NFL. Heck, our own Dave Krieg and Jim Zorn might have flourished in today's read option offense.
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Re: Russell Wilson greatest 4th quarter QB

Postby HumanCockroach » Thu Dec 14, 2017 7:28 pm

If you think Favre and Elway played season upon season of 3 quarters of mediocrity for the entirety of their career, I'm not sure I can help you. They made their reputations there, they certainly didn't build HOF careers based on fourth quarter effectivness alone.
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Re: Russell Wilson greatest 4th quarter QB

Postby HumanCockroach » Thu Dec 14, 2017 7:35 pm

North where did I say I'd trade him? In fact I stated the opposite of that, however, to be one of the "greatest to ever play the game" , four quarters of good football is a necessity.... right now, he will be on NFL Networks " top ten clutch performers" lists, or "greatest 4th quarter quarterbacks" but he simply isn't gonna hold a gold jacket, or be "elite". Consistency matters. I'm not running him down, I'm being honest. If you didn't know the name, and I read you of the 75/57%/12 and 10 in 39 quarters, you would think I wad discussing a raw rookie, a veteran cast off, or an extremely mediocre quarterback. Imho if that's the case, there's not much of an argument for them being elite.
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Re: Russell Wilson greatest 4th quarter QB

Postby mykc14 » Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:01 pm

HumanCockroach wrote:The problem is, you seem to be missing that you haven't seen six seasons of elite play, you've seen 3, a rookie year, and the last two seasons of 75% mediocre to below play, with some 4th quarter magic.

Ultimately, elite, bona fide HOF And are CONSISTENTLY great, CONSISTENTLY raising the level of play. They may have bad games here and there, happens to everybody, but what they don't do, is throw balls directly into DBs guts, they don't intentionally ground the ball while being sacked 5 out of 6 games, they don't only play one quarter of football week and week out for two FULL seasons.


HC You are just wrong... let’s look at the stats. I don’t love Quarterback rating as a measure of a Quarterback’s effectiveness, but over time it is a stat that generally will create a gap between bad, average, good, and great QBs. The overall stats look HOF worthy over his first 6 seasons but because this thread is about his performance by quarter I have broken down his stats into these categories: QBR by attempt number, by half, and by quarter. Here’s his career numbers:

YEAR.....................12......13......14......15......16......17
Attempts 1-10.........109......98......88......99......99......72
Attempts 10-20.........91.....106......92....107......84......87
Attempts 21-30.........96.....104.....103....110......86....113
Attempts 30+..........113......78.....109....122.....115....119

1st Half.................106.....106......91....101.....97......78
2nd Half.................92.......96......95....111.....89......112

Q1.......................114.......86......80.....93.....96......78
Q2.......................100.....123.......99...106.....97......79
Q3........................86.......92.....100....109.....75......79
Q4........................98.....100.......90....113.....98.....123
OT.......................158......77......156.....95....119.....123

As you look at this, yes his numbers are Great. In fact, if you were to look at his career first half vs. second half numbers they are almost equal. This year is the anomaly as his number are well below his career average in the first half but we’ll abo his career average in the 2nd. A Quarterback as good as RW is just not going to consistently have a QBR above 100 every quarter. I would rather have a QB who heats up through out the game than one who gets much worse in clutch time!!!
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Re: Russell Wilson greatest 4th quarter QB

Postby Sox-n-hawks » Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:04 pm

HumanCockroach wrote:If you think Favre and Elway played season upon season of 3 quarters of mediocrity for the entirety of their career, I'm not sure I can help you. They made their reputations there, they certainly didn't build HOF careers based on fourth quarter effectivness alone.


And you realize his rating and completion percentage eclipses both Elway and Favre at this point in their career AND total career? RW is an effective and solid QB hindered by poor play calling in the first three quarters. JUST like Favre when he had Bevell as OC at Minnesota. I know a guy who trains seeing eye dogs if you're really that blind. Either way, go Hawks! Crush the Lambs!
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Re: Russell Wilson greatest 4th quarter QB

Postby mykc14 » Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:42 pm

To compare I looked at 2 of Tom Brady’s years. I picked his 5th season (04) because RW’s last full season as a starter was his 5th. I also picked a season in which his QBR is close to Wilson’s current QBR this season (Wilson’s currently is around 95.5 and the one I used for Brady, 2009 was 96.2)... I’m just going to do QBR by quarter because the other stuff would take too long:

YEAR...............04...........09
Q1..................81...........78
Q2................107..........108
Q3................106..........103
Q4.................75...........74
OT..................83..........N/A

I am sure that if you were to look at other years you might see something different, but the variation by quarter is similar. Looking at the 5th season RW is much more consistent and it’s not even close.
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Re: Russell Wilson greatest 4th quarter QB

Postby mykc14 » Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:18 pm

Dang it I’ve got too much time on my hands... ok I looked at around the 5th season of the career leaders in QBR besides Wilson, Brady, and Steve Young (couldn’t find his situational info and here are their numbers. I tried to pick their 5th season as a starter but towards the end I just looked at their 5th season so it might only be their 4th season starting but close enough some had really good years (Rodgers) and others were just ok, but that’s what you get with a random sample.
here they are:

PLAYER........ Rodgers......Romo......Brees
Q1.................98...........91..........106
Q2................105..........103..........99
Q3................105...........83..........83
Q4................113..........102..........60
OT.................73...........122.........122 (1 Attempt)

Again these are the career leaders in passer rating (including Brady) and 3 of the 4 (including Brady) are first ballot HOFers. At similar points in their careers RW was better and more consistent (his numbers by quarter last year... 96, 97, 75, 98, 118)
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Re: Russell Wilson greatest 4th quarter QB

Postby HumanCockroach » Fri Dec 15, 2017 8:47 pm

Since you seem interested in doing so, why not breakdown turnover to TD rate and completion percentage over a period of time, I recommend going back to the NFCCG and moving forward.

Nothing changes his performance for the last two years, and prior to starting a debate, if you would like to compare contemporary numbers please do, but spare me the first five years of Favre, and Elway ( both of whom played initially in a vastly different landscape, and both had detractors regarding their erratic play and unforced turnovers.)

No matter what numbers you ultimately throw out though, there is simply no way to wash those numbers. 12/10 under 60 completion percentage and almost a 1 to 1 td to interception ratio every every 3 quarters of football, isn't anything but mediocre to below mediocre.

Last season might have been merely two, to two and a half quarters of anemic play, but I assure you, after the better parts of two seasons, it isn't an outlier.
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Re: Russell Wilson greatest 4th quarter QB

Postby mykc14 » Fri Dec 15, 2017 10:23 pm

HumanCockroach wrote:Since you seem interested in doing so, why not breakdown turnover to TD rate and completion percentage over a period of time, I recommend going back to the NFCCG and moving forward.

Nothing changes his performance for the last two years, and prior to starting a debate, if you would like to compare contemporary numbers please do, but spare me the first five years of Favre, and Elway ( both of whom played initially in a vastly different landscape, and both had detractors regarding their erratic play and unforced turnovers.)

No matter what numbers you ultimately throw out though, there is simply no way to wash those numbers. 12/10 under 60 completion percentage and almost a 1 to 1 td to interception ratio every every 3 quarters of football, isn't anything but mediocre to below mediocre.

Last season might have been merely two, to two and a half quarters of anemic play, but I assure you, after the better parts of two seasons, it isn't an outlier.


All I did was look at QBR by quarter at similar points in these players careers and you might want to re-Check the players I looked at. I used guys who all played while RW has played: Brady, Rodgers, Brees, and Romo. I chose them because them RW and Steve Young are all the career leaders in QBR in NFL history. I didn’t look at Favre or Elway numbers. I don’t need to look at anything else other than what I have already shown. His numbers by half or by quarter measure up favorably to the greatest passers of this era based on QBR, which doesn’t take into account any of his rushing numbers or TD’s. There is no doubt he would look much better if those were included. Also QBR includes things like TDs turnovers and completion percentage so if you want to see what those are that seems like more cherry picking certain stats. You claim he is Great 25% of the time and mediocre the other 75%. I have shown that is simply not true over his career, in fact if you look at his career his first half and second half QBR are almost identical. Last season his numbers were more consistent than most of those other guys in their 5th season. This year has been the outlier so far. My guess (and I may be wrong) is that by the end of the year his 1st-3rd quarters will head back towards his average and his 4th quarter will do the same. It will still look like an outlier of a season but not as bad as it does now. His 1st-3rd numbers will climb into the low to mid 80’s and his 4th quarter will fall back to the mid teens...

I am sure anybody can cherry pick stats that will show what they want the numbers to say. I looked at the numbers and compared his to the greats and the numbers were what they were. I wasn’t cherry picking anything just looking at QBR because it is a broad, universal stat for QBs that give a decent picture of how a QB played over a certain amount of time. A stat, by the way, that doesn’t give credit to RW for a major part of his game, rushing the ball.
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Re: Russell Wilson greatest 4th quarter QB

Postby mykc14 » Fri Dec 15, 2017 10:50 pm

Ok I decided to look up completion percentage and TD/INTs. I only looked at 15 and 16 the two years after the Green Bay NFCCG.. you have already provided the 17’ numbers which we all agree are out of whack. Completion percentage shows pretty good consistency throughout. TD/INT ratio is a mixed bag, but I imagine you will see the same thing in other QBs when compared.
here they are:

YEAR:................15...........16
Completion percentage:
Q1....................65%.........71%
Q2....................67%.........62%
Q3....................69%.........61%
Q4....................66%.........64%

TD/INT:
Q1...................4/1.........1/0
Q2...................12/4.......11/6
Q3...................11/5.......2/2
Q4...................11/1.......11/5
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Re: Russell Wilson greatest 4th quarter QB

Postby mykc14 » Fri Dec 15, 2017 11:14 pm

mykc14 wrote:
YEAR:................15...........16
Completion percentage:
Q1....................65%.........71%
Q2....................67%.........62%
Q3....................69%.........61%
Q4....................66%.........64%

TD/INT:
Q1...................4/1.........1/0
Q2...................12/4.......11/6
Q3...................11/5.......2/2
Q4...................11/1.......11/5


I left RW’s stats up her so they are more easily compared. Here are the same guys I looked at last time in the same years. As you can see RWs numbers look very similar. All of these QBs had good quarters and bad quarters in their TD/INT ratio over this random season. I don’t know what other facts you want me to use. Your claim that RW has been great 25-50% of the time since the GB NFCCG just doesn’t t hold water. He has an anomaly THIS year in his stats, but I imagine if you went through all these QBs stats you would find anomalies at some point. Looking at these numbers helps me to realize that RW is elite and has been for a few years. Throw in his rushing TDs and yards and his numbers look even better. I think it’s time you started throwing stats up here to prove he has been a 25-50% QB over the past 3 years...

Quarter.............1...............2..........3........4

Brady
TD/INT.............5/7...........13/3......7/2......5/4
Completion %.....65.............66........69.......59

Rodgers
TD/INT............7/3.............10/2.....7/2.....11/2
Comp%.............63..............64.......69.......62

Romo
TD/INT............4/2.............10/2.....5/4......8/2
Comp %...........66..............63.........69.......64

Bree’s
TD/INT............7/0.............9/5......5/4......3/6
Comp%...........65...............70........64.......56
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Re: Russell Wilson greatest 4th quarter QB

Postby Zorn76 » Fri Dec 15, 2017 11:48 pm

Any way you cut it...RW is a great QB.
I get the stat break down, etc., but the kid won a SB in Year two,
and even with the benefit of That D and Beast, had A Lot to do with it.

That said, he's the main reason the team has their head above water,
even though he has an OC that can't pull his head out of his azz.
It's a pity that his prime yrs have never fully been realized, because they can't be
when you're being "coached' by an idiot.

RW is gonna have to run for at least 50 yds to beat the Rams on Sunday, with him hopefully getting
several 1st downs in the process. LA's D isn't what it used to be, but it's gonna require some kind of imagination
offensively to keep up if the scoring is early and often. For whatever reason, I see our special teams waking up
and creating either a couple of turnovers, or having Lockett take one back. Very little margin for error in this game.
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Re: Russell Wilson greatest 4th quarter QB

Postby HumanCockroach » Sat Dec 16, 2017 10:25 am

Nah, all he's gotta do is play quarters 1 through 3 at a slightly above average level, and have his amazing fourth quarter for the second time this season. No critical point sapping turnovers, good decisions, and take the first downs given.
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