Next up: the draft

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Next up: the draft

Postby TriCitySam » Thu Feb 16, 2023 3:13 pm

I've heard a couple of times that this '23 draft is a bad draft talent wise. Basically, the top end is rs out - Kiper said he only had 14 that graded out as #1 picks. I get a lot of folks don't like Kiper, but I bought his draft books for years on end, and while he wasn't the best at the mock draft, his talent evaluation was generally pretty good - as it goes in that business. So a good year for us to have, hang on to, #5 if that's true. And, even if it is a "bad draft", there is still talent to be found in there, so looking forward to how JS approaches it.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby RiverDog » Thu Feb 16, 2023 3:35 pm

In the history of our franchise, there's been three drafts where we've had two picks as high as the ones we have this season, and in all 3 drafts, one of them ended up (or will end up) in the HOF:

In 1997, we selected Shawn Springs with our #3 overall and Walter Jones with our #6 overall.

In 2001, we selected Koren Robinson with our #9 overall and Steve Hutchinson with the #17 overall.

In 2010, we selected Russell Okung with our #6 overall and Earl Thomas with our #14 overall.

The only other draft where we had 2-first round picks was in 2000 when we took Shawn Alexander at #19 and Chris McIntosh at #22, so if history is any kind of a predictor of what this draft might yield, one of our two top picks should turn out to be really good.

Going off my memory, and you old timers correct me if I'm wrong, the '97 draft we ended up with a 2nd #1 pick due to trading Rick Mirer to the Bears, in '00 we swindled the Cowboys out of their #1 by trading them Joey Galloway, and in 2010, in Tim Ruskell's gift to Pete and John, we got an extra pick by trading our 2009 2nd rounder to the Broncos for a player they drafted that turned out to be a bust (last name Smith?).
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby mykc14 » Thu Feb 16, 2023 4:25 pm

RiverDog wrote:
Going off my memory, and you old timers correct me if I'm wrong, the '97 draft we ended up with a 2nd #1 pick due to trading Rick Mirer to the Bears, in '00 we swindled the Cowboys out of their #1 by trading them Joey Galloway, and in 2010, in Tim Ruskell's gift to Pete and John, we got an extra pick by trading our 2009 2nd rounder to the Broncos for a player they drafted that turned out to be a bust (last name Smith?).


That sounds about right to me. Man we really have screwed over other teams when we get that second first round pick. Joey Galloway wasn't terrible for the Cowboys, although he wasn't worth a 1st but Mirer, Smith (can't remember his last name for sure but I'm pretty sure he was a DB), and Wilson were all fleece jobs by our FO.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby Old but Slow » Thu Feb 16, 2023 4:59 pm

This draft is not strong in the first round, but there is strength in the middle rounds. It is a pretty good year for defensive linemen, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends. It does not seem to be a deep linebacker draft, but the ones at the top are very good. Schneider seems to like players with special qualities, and there are a number of those. Dewand Jones is an offensive tackle with rare qualities, like 375 pounds, 6' 8", with room to add weight in his lower body and he can move. J L Skinner is a safety from Boise State who is big (215 #) and has speed, coverage ability, and hits hard. Calijah Kancey is a DT who is undersized at #280, but may be the best penetrating interior lineman to come along for awhile. Josh Downs and Zay Flowers are both small, very quick, fast, and have a Tyler Lockett feel. Bijan Robinson can be a great running back, he is big, fast, can catch the ball and run routes like a WR, and has been described as the best pass blocking RB in some time (he will be a top pick, however).

I even saw a suggestion that we draft Dewand Jones and move Lucas to RG. That would be a reach, but watching Jones throw defensive linemen around during Senior Bowl practices was eye opening. Another idea is to take Bijan Robinson with our #20 pick (running backs rarely go in the first half of the first round). He is every bit the runner Walker or Penny is, but is a much better receiver and blocker than either. Walker, especially would have some trade value, and Penny might, as well.

The Combine is in two weeks, which will cause players to lose or gain favor, and some times there is a player who simply forces himself into a top position with an explosive workout.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby RiverDog » Thu Feb 16, 2023 5:14 pm

RiverDog wrote:
Going off my memory, and you old timers correct me if I'm wrong, the '97 draft we ended up with a 2nd #1 pick due to trading Rick Mirer to the Bears, in '00 we swindled the Cowboys out of their #1 by trading them Joey Galloway, and in 2010, in Tim Ruskell's gift to Pete and John, we got an extra pick by trading our 2009 2nd rounder to the Broncos for a player they drafted that turned out to be a bust (last name Smith?).


mykc14 wrote:That sounds about right to me. Man we really have screwed over other teams when we get that second first round pick. Joey Galloway wasn't terrible for the Cowboys, although he wasn't worth a 1st but Mirer, Smith (can't remember his last name for sure but I'm pretty sure he was a DB), and Wilson were all fleece jobs by our FO.


Come to think of it, we actually harpooned Jerry Jones for not one, but two first round picks in exchange for Galloway, almost as bad as the Jets swindled PC/JS for Jamal Adams. The first of those two picks, in 2000, we used to draft Shawn Alexander, the 2nd one, in 2001 Koren Robinson, a.k.a. K-Drop.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby NorthHawk » Fri Feb 17, 2023 8:23 am

From what I can figure out this draft looks like there are a hand full of players that are top 1st round picks, but there are also a whole bunch that have very high ceilings but might have very low floors.
Basically controversial picks. I like the 4 QBs and think in the right situations they could all thrive. Houston might be the worst situation for any of them, but the Colts might be the right fit for any of them.
I've been looking at Jalen Carter and he's a mystery player. Some times he absolutely looks like the best player ever, but other times he gets dominated, and then there's the issue of him on the sidelines as
much as he is even on important downs and critical situations. Some media scouts have said there are character concerns. I wouldn't know that but if his play is any indication that might indicate he's not
completely absorbed in football like the top picks have to be to be worthy of a top 5 pick. I would wonder about his diet or other health related issue if he's constantly getting tired early in the games. Maybe
he just doesn't have a big motor - all the talent in the world but no consistency, or maybe he's just one of those people that can't work hard. I don't know what it is, but to me he has a very high ceiling and
a very low floor.
Will Anderson's stats fell off this year but it seems he was used a little differently. He might be the best pass rusher of this draft, but I don't know if he would fit in our version of a 3-4.
One of the best talents in this draft if Bijan Robinson, RB Texas who is a real stud, but RBs don't go as early as 5 and I think we could get another real good RB later, like Zach Charbonnet from UCLA who isn't
as naturally talented, but is an all round RB both in rushing and pass catching. I wonder if that could be another dimension to the Offense adding a good route running RB with good hands into the mix.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby Hawktawk » Sun Feb 19, 2023 10:04 am

Lol K-drop , blind lemon Melon. SA was an excellent back but I had heard we left Kearse the freak on the board . We traded Aman Green , a very good back for some DB who got hurt and never played . But cannibas Koren a 1 eyed reciever in the first round ? Holmgren the GM screwed Holmgren the coach , as pure a disciple of the Walsh WCO as there was . Our one great year Ruskell brought in Jurivicios and drafted Hill and Lofa. I was amazed there were those clamoring for Holmy to return as Gm after Ruskell was fired . When I look back I have more respect for the personell management of John and Pete . Hopefully they have one more great draft in them .
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby TriCitySam » Tue Feb 21, 2023 11:35 am

From the guys I trust reading, there likely are 3 blue chip defensive players: Carter, Anderson and Wilson. Seems a fair bet we will have a shot at one of those. I kind favor an Edge, not that I don't like Carter, but historically that is the more valuable position in the draft. I'd be thrilled with any.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby RiverDog » Tue Feb 21, 2023 12:16 pm

TriCitySam wrote:From the guys I trust reading, there likely are 3 blue chip defensive players: Carter, Anderson and Wilson. Seems a fair bet we will have a shot at one of those. I kind favor an Edge, not that I don't like Carter, but historically that is the more valuable position in the draft. I'd be thrilled with any.


I wasn't impressed with Carter during the CFB playoffs, and my opinion seemed to fit the consensus in the other forum that I frequent. He doesn't seem to have that motor that you like to see in defensive linemen. But all I saw was a virtual snap shot, so who knows.

I'm still hoping that we'll have a shot at CJ Stroud, but from what I've been reading, his stock has been rising and that he might be the first QB off the board, probably ends up with the Texans.

If someone is willing to give us a decent haul for that #5 overall, a couple firsts and a second, I'd jump all over it. This year's draft looks a little thin, at least at the top end.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby c_hawkbob » Tue Feb 21, 2023 12:40 pm

If we had the #1 pick in the draft I'd want it to be Carter. If he's still there at 5 I'll be shocked, I'll also hoping we don't trade back. Almost any other player and I'd be OK trading down.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby TriCitySam » Tue Feb 21, 2023 5:59 pm

Wilson is intriguing, later on I'd like to see John Michael Schmitz and I was impressed watching Jack Campbell in some games.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby Old but Slow » Tue Feb 21, 2023 6:58 pm

Whether through the draft or free agency, we need to see improvement at linebacker. Brooks and Barton had big tackle numbers, largely because the defense was on the field so much. I just read a post on another site that quoted something called SIS (?) which collected stats on average tackle depth. In other words, how much yardage is the tackler giving up past the line of scrimmage.

Barton was the worst in the top 40 linebackers. He gave up 3.7 yards a tackle. Next worst was 3.3. Again some blame goes to the defensive front overall, as Brooks was 5th worst at 2.7 yards per.

There are few linebackers rated very high in this draft, but there are 2-3 that would warrant a first or 2d round pick (not #5). Drew sanders is projected as a first rounder, and would be a great pick at 20, if he is there. Nolan Smith and Trenton Simpson are also looking good.

I don't have a handle on free agents.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby govandals » Tue Feb 21, 2023 8:18 pm

I don't get the love for Tyree Wilson. I see him mocked to us at #5 a lot, which feels too rich for me. Watch him in a 3 point stance, he is often the last guy off the snap. I don't see explosiveness or great change of direction. When rushing the passer, if he does not win with power he really doesn't have another move, he is not "bendy". He is a rare physical specimen, though, and I'm really curious to see how he tests at the combine.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby RiverDog » Wed Feb 22, 2023 4:30 am

Old but Slow wrote:Whether through the draft or free agency, we need to see improvement at linebacker. Brooks and Barton had big tackle numbers, largely because the defense was on the field so much. I just read a post on another site that quoted something called SIS (?) which collected stats on average tackle depth. In other words, how much yardage is the tackler giving up past the line of scrimmage.

Barton was the worst in the top 40 linebackers. He gave up 3.7 yards a tackle. Next worst was 3.3. Again some blame goes to the defensive front overall, as Brooks was 5th worst at 2.7 yards per.

There are few linebackers rated very high in this draft, but there are 2-3 that would warrant a first or 2d round pick (not #5). Drew sanders is projected as a first rounder, and would be a great pick at 20, if he is there. Nolan Smith and Trenton Simpson are also looking good.

I don't have a handle on free agents.


Total tackles is one of the most misleading stat that they keep as it is directly proportional to time of possession. I have no idea why they don't track a tackles per play and use it as a gauge for defenders. But that SIS stat seems intriguing, too, as it is an average rather than a number that's largely a function of the number of opportunities.

I've been reading quite a bit about John Michael Schmitz, a center from Minnesota. He might be an option for one of our two 2nd round picks. According to PFF, the center class is very strong this year, and Schmitz is at or near the top in most rankings.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby Hawktawk » Wed Feb 22, 2023 8:44 am

Heard a little on Seattle sports tho morning about Hendon Hooker as a possible second round qb out of Tennessee. I’ve proved I’m no draft guru but the guy sounded interesting , big accurate arm , mobile , low turnovers . The conventional wisdom was sign Geno and Lock and draft defense etc . With the departure of Dave Canales to Tampa as OC it creates intrigue for Geno as a guy who loved Canales. But Tampa is in cap hell making Geno unlikely but Drew Lock at around 3 mil very likely . I recently heard an analyst call the difference between Geno and Drew the size of the Grand Canyon for those of us delusional to think Drew could step right in .

Drafting a potential upgrade makes sense at that point doesn’t it ?Anyway just a few things I was wondering about .
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby NorthHawk » Wed Feb 22, 2023 9:35 am

Schmitz seems to be fairly athletic and able to get to the 2nd level, but I get the impression he is a step below some of the other Centers from previous years that went high in the draft.
For me, along with the quickness, it's important that he have some sand in his pants to at least delay a bull rush up the middle. We can't expect him to nullify Donald, or other top interior DL, so delaying them is the best we can hope.
At least he shouldn't be a turnstile like we've seen since Unger was traded.

QB? I hope one of the better ones is still there at 5. Hooker is injured (ACL) so he probably won't be ready to even practice at a high rate until mid season, and he has a lot to learn about the Pro game, unlike some of the others in
this class. He might have some talent but he has a much lower floor than the top 4.
I think that the plan after trading away Wilson was clearly to take our lumps and draft a QB high in this draft and I hope they don't now stray from that plan. If we re-sign Geno, it should be to a short term deal with an easy out in a couple
of years with a low first year Cap hit. We don't want to be back in the Cap situation we had with Wilson when we don't have to and miss out on top FA's that can really help especially along the DL. We currently have around $31M in Cap space but the expected cost of signing the Rookies should be around $15 -$16 Million leaving us with about $16M to spend on re-signing Geno and any FA + having a reserve to account for signing players due to injury to some starters.

On the other note, we are scheduled to pay $36M for Adams and Diggs at S. That has to change in some manner so maybe there can be some room to restructure or a tough decision to make a post June 1st cut and spread the
Cap hit over 2 years. The bottom line is there's too much money tied up in that group.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby RiverDog » Wed Feb 22, 2023 10:24 am

NorthHawk wrote:Schmitz seems to be fairly athletic and able to get to the 2nd level, but I get the impression he is a step below some of the other Centers from previous years that went high in the draft.

For me, along with the quickness, it's important that he have some sand in his pants to at least delay a bull rush up the middle. We can't expect him to nullify Donald, or other top interior DL, so delaying them is the best we can hope.
At least he shouldn't be a turnstile like we've seen since Unger was traded.


Here's a pretty good scouting report from PFF on Schmitz. I really like a lot of the stuff I'm reading about him:

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/john ... port-2023/

NorthHawk wrote:QB? I hope one of the better ones is still there at 5. Hooker is injured (ACL) so he probably won't be ready to even practice at a high rate until mid season, and he has a lot to learn about the Pro game, unlike some of the others in
this class. He might have some talent but he has a much lower floor than the top 4.
I think that the plan after trading away Wilson was clearly to take our lumps and draft a QB high in this draft and I hope they don't now stray from that plan. If we re-sign Geno, it should be to a short term deal with an easy out in a couple
of years with a low first year Cap hit. We don't want to be back in the Cap situation we had with Wilson when we don't have to and miss out on top FA's that can really help especially along the DL. We currently have around $31M in Cap space but the expected cost of signing the Rookies should be around $15 -$16 Million leaving us with about $16M to spend on re-signing Geno and any FA + having a reserve to account for signing players due to injury to some starters.


I know that Cbob is big on Hooker, but he's likely a Day Two pick simply due to his injury. I'm hesitant about Young as I'd like to see a little taller QB back there. Despite all the talk about Russell's breaking the height barrier, there were times when I think that it really affected his vision which could account for his reluctance to throw over the middle. I'd rather see us go with either Stroud or Levis, with my preference being the former.

NorthHawk wrote:On the other note, we are scheduled to pay $36M for Adams and Diggs at S. That has to change in some manner so maybe there can be some room to restructure or a tough decision to make a post June 1st cut and spread the Cap hit over 2 years. The bottom line is there's too much money tied up in that group.


I've made my position on Adams pretty clear. I actually think that we're a better overall defense without him. But it would be a tough pill to swallow for Pete and John to do the right thing and cut him as they'd be admitting to having made one of the worst trades in franchise history. It's hard for anyone to admit when they're wrong, let alone when you consider that all NFL HC's got to where they are because they have an unbridled confidence in their ability.

We've got a ton of money tied up in two position groups: Safety and wide receiver.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby NorthHawk » Wed Feb 22, 2023 10:54 am

I'm not as concerned about WR because Lockett is still performing at a high level and after this year there is a chance to re-negotiate his contract. DK is in his prime and probably worth it.
The Safeties on the other hand haven't been as effective.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby Old but Slow » Wed Feb 22, 2023 12:13 pm

First I wonder why I need to sign in to post. And, yes, I check the "remember me" box. This has happened 2-3 times now, and it is tiresome because I have to look up what password I am using here. Hope someone fixes it.

The more I get into this draft class, the more I am seeing the fluid nature of the beast. Earlier, I thought that this was a good group of centers, but after Pran decided to stay in school, it looks to me as though there is no worthy pick before round 3. The guard crop is a little better, but none likely before round 2, and that may be a stretch. Blythe was not a good signing for us, as the team tried the Rams approach of smaller, more maneuverable centers, but he simply got pushed around too much. I would do the same thing this year, signing a free agent vet, but one with more beef. Paired with a 3d round guard it could work out, maybe Steve Avila or Cody Mauch.

If, for some demented reason, we don't take a QB at #5, I would hope that the team would sign 2 QBs later. Having 2 competing would increase the odds of finding a winner. I am not a Hooker fan, partly because after he recovers from his injury he will be 28 years old, which is late for a rookie. He has talent, though, and he has huge hands, which I see as a positive.

While WR is not our greatest need, there is a pretty sizable group of middle round guys who could fill the 3d receiver spot and maybe be able to replace Lockett in the future. And there is variety. Big, fast: Quentin Johnston, Jonathan Mingo, Cedric Tillman. Small, shifty, fast: Zay Flowers, Josh Downs, Tank Dell, Tyler Scott. Possession, routes, hands: Jake Bobo, Jordan Addison, Marvin Mims.

On the other side, there are some players that I see as much overrated, like O'Cyrus Torrence G, who is big, slow, and fat and often mocked in the first round. Peter Skoronski is another guard that is being rated too high. Not a bad player, but not first round and maybe not second. Defensive end Myles Murphy has been mocked to us by some, which is ridiculous, although he would be decent second rounder. Similarly, I don't see Tyree Wilson in the top 10.

The Combine starts on the 28th, and some of this will come out in the wash. A player I have hopes for if his arms are long enough to satisfy our FO, is Mazi Smith, a big (337#) defensive tackle who moves well and is a run stopper with some pass rush moves. We would likely need to use our #20 on him if his arms are over 33".

I reserve the right to change my mind at any moment.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby RiverDog » Wed Feb 22, 2023 2:05 pm

Old but Slow wrote:First I wonder why I need to sign in to post. And, yes, I check the "remember me" box. This has happened 2-3 times now, and it is tiresome because I have to look up what password I am using here. Hope someone fixes it.


That happens to me occasionally, but my browser saves my user name and password so I don't have to actually look it up. Certain times of the day, the page takes an incredibly long time to load. Right now, the page loads just fine, but earlier this morning, it was as slow as molasses.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby NorthHawk » Wed Feb 22, 2023 3:45 pm

Old but Slow wrote:First I wonder why I need to sign in to post. And, yes, I check the "remember me" box. This has happened 2-3 times now, and it is tiresome because I have to look up what password I am using here. Hope someone fixes it.

The more I get into this draft class, the more I am seeing the fluid nature of the beast. Earlier, I thought that this was a good group of centers, but after Pran decided to stay in school, it looks to me as though there is no worthy pick before round 3. The guard crop is a little better, but none likely before round 2, and that may be a stretch. Blythe was not a good signing for us, as the team tried the Rams approach of smaller, more maneuverable centers, but he simply got pushed around too much. I would do the same thing this year, signing a free agent vet, but one with more beef. Paired with a 3d round guard it could work out, maybe Steve Avila or Cody Mauch.

If, for some demented reason, we don't take a QB at #5, I would hope that the team would sign 2 QBs later. Having 2 competing would increase the odds of finding a winner. I am not a Hooker fan, partly because after he recovers from his injury he will be 28 years old, which is late for a rookie. He has talent, though, and he has huge hands, which I see as a positive.

While WR is not our greatest need, there is a pretty sizable group of middle round guys who could fill the 3d receiver spot and maybe be able to replace Lockett in the future. And there is variety. Big, fast: Quentin Johnston, Jonathan Mingo, Cedric Tillman. Small, shifty, fast: Zay Flowers, Josh Downs, Tank Dell, Tyler Scott. Possession, routes, hands: Jake Bobo, Jordan Addison, Marvin Mims.

On the other side, there are some players that I see as much overrated, like O'Cyrus Torrence G, who is big, slow, and fat and often mocked in the first round. Peter Skoronski is another guard that is being rated too high. Not a bad player, but not first round and maybe not second. Defensive end Myles Murphy has been mocked to us by some, which is ridiculous, although he would be decent second rounder. Similarly, I don't see Tyree Wilson in the top 10.

The Combine starts on the 28th, and some of this will come out in the wash. A player I have hopes for if his arms are long enough to satisfy our FO, is Mazi Smith, a big (337#) defensive tackle who moves well and is a run stopper with some pass rush moves. We would likely need to use our #20 on him if his arms are over 33".

I reserve the right to change my mind at any moment.


Outside of defensive upgrades amongst the front 7, we still need a true #3 WR.
JS has implied (or maybe I inferred) that he intends to approach this draft similar to last year meaning it's accumulating talent as the primary purpose.
With that in mind, a good WR early in the 2nd might be a possibility.
LB looks a little thin this year, but we should be able to improve the talent at RB and maybe score another one like we did with Walker. The talent looks like it might extend into the middle or late 3rd round.
DT is a big need and it's easy to hope for the 5th pick to be one, but who knows if one is there when we select. I love Carter's talent, but in my mind I keep seeing Aaron Curry as the comparison with regards to
desire to be the best and his being out of shape in College for 2 years is also a worry.
So I'm hoping for a QB at #5 and addressing the DL after and in FA.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby NorthHawk » Wed Feb 22, 2023 3:53 pm

govandals wrote:I don't get the love for Tyree Wilson. I see him mocked to us at #5 a lot, which feels too rich for me. Watch him in a 3 point stance, he is often the last guy off the snap. I don't see explosiveness or great change of direction. When rushing the passer, if he does not win with power he really doesn't have another move, he is not "bendy". He is a rare physical specimen, though, and I'm really curious to see how he tests at the combine.


From reading comments and evaluations along with hearing some of the media evaluators talk, it seems they like his huge wingspan, quickness off the ball and proven ability to play both inside and outside.
I don't think he has the upside of Carter, but I also don't think he will be limited to playing only 40% of the defensive snaps because he's winded. I expect him to play all 3 downs and 75% of the snaps or more after
his first year. But I could be reading something into what I've heard that's influenced by my own biases.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby RiverDog » Wed Feb 22, 2023 7:00 pm

NorthHawk wrote:Outside of defensive upgrades amongst the front 7, we still need a true #3 WR. JS has implied (or maybe I inferred) that he intends to approach this draft similar to last year meaning it's accumulating talent as the primary purpose. With that in mind, a good WR early in the 2nd might be a possibility.


Not only no, but hell no! We made a decision to draft a WR in the 2nd round, Dee Eskridge, and in the process, pass over Creed Humphrey. We just signed Marquise Goodwin, who is an excellent WR, to a 3 year, $19M contract. We're set at WR, at least for the next couple of years. The focus needs to be on the defense and the interior OL. If none are available that are worth the picks, then trade out of it if we can, maybe put a couple draft picks in our pocket for next season.

NorthHawk wrote:LB looks a little thin this year, but we should be able to improve the talent at RB and maybe score another one like we did with Walker. The talent looks like it might extend into the middle or late 3rd round.
DT is a big need and it's easy to hope for the 5th pick to be one, but who knows if one is there when we select. I love Carter's talent, but in my mind I keep seeing Aaron Curry as the comparison with regards to
desire to be the best and his being out of shape in College for 2 years is also a worry.
So I'm hoping for a QB at #5 and addressing the DL after and in FA.


I could be talked into spending a 3rd rounder on an RB, but not one of our top 4 picks and only if we have decided to cut bait with Penny.

But the rest of that statement I agree with. I'm really hesitant about Jalen Carter. He doesn't look like he's ready for Prime Time. I'm crossing my fingers that Stroud will be there at #5.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby govandals » Wed Feb 22, 2023 9:22 pm

RiverDog wrote: We just signed Marquise Goodwin, who is an excellent WR, to a 3 year, $19M contract. We're set at WR, at least for the next couple of years.


Goodwin is a UFA, he played for 1.2 million last year. WR3 is absolutely a need this year. I would be OK if they used the second 2nd or a 3rd round pick on a WR. Penny Hart, Dee Eskridge, Cade Johnson and Dareke Young (I think) are JAGS. I'd guess they will bring in another veteran again, maybe Goodwin comes back on a cheap deal. I see Robert Woods was released today, he knows the Rams system so he may be an option.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby RiverDog » Thu Feb 23, 2023 1:48 am

RiverDog wrote: We just signed Marquise Goodwin, who is an excellent WR, to a 3 year, $19M contract. We're set at WR, at least for the next couple of years.


govandals wrote:Goodwin is a UFA, he played for 1.2 million last year. WR3 is absolutely a need this year. I would be OK if they used the second 2nd or a 3rd round pick on a WR. Penny Hart, Dee Eskridge, Cade Johnson and Dareke Young (I think) are JAGS. I'd guess they will bring in another veteran again, maybe Goodwin comes back on a cheap deal. I see Robert Woods was released today, he knows the Rams system so he may be an option.


Yeah, my bad on Goodwin. I must have gotten mixed up reading wiki. Thanks for the correction.

Dee Eskridge is still on his rookie contract with us and won't be a UFA until 2025. Same with Dareke Young, his doesn't expire until 2026.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/seattle-seahawks/contracts/

I just get this adverse reaction when I think about spending high draft picks on WR's. Every time I see Creed Humphrey, I think about how we passed him over for Eskridge, who has been a huge disappointment.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby NorthHawk » Thu Feb 23, 2023 7:29 am

With 4 picks in the first 52, we could get 4 of our needs including a WR and still improve the team.
I liked Eskridge, but he's never been healthy and hasn't produced to date. There should still be some good WRs into the 3rd round - if the Big Boards and Mock drafts are anywhere near close to the value they set on players.
Maybe Young has a future. He didn't show a lot last year and WRs arrive readier than most positions, but maybe it's taken him a while to get the Pro game straight.
We might also go TE considering Dissly is again getting surgery and the others are nearing contract renegotiate time. Michael Mayer from ND is a name that keeps popping up on Mocks and in discussions as a future star.

But if JS was being honest in one of his later interviews, and this draft is all about adding talent, we could be in for some surprising selections with players we might not seem to need this year. I also heard him say a few years
back that they don't draft for this year, but for 2 or 3 years down the road - and most teams do the same. So a TE or WR might be in the mix of possibilities in the first 2 rounds.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby Old but Slow » Thu Feb 23, 2023 9:19 am

I agree, NorthHawk. There could be some late (6th-7th round) value in the WR class if they opt for a one-dimensional type player. Perhaps an undersized route runner or something. That kind of pick can lead to an high upside with little risk.

There could be some late running backs, too. Devon Archane, for instance, is small (185) but has inhuman burst and world class speed. He is tough and can find the holes. Probably go in the 5th. Deuce Vaughn is similar, even smaller, but is exciting. Rob Staton lists 20 running backs that he projects to go in the draft, as well as 21 wide receivers. The only position group with that kind of depth is edge rushers (25).

This draft and offseason process is addicting. I find myself prowling around low joints seeking info. Getting into conspiracy theories, medical recovery rates, salary structures and the cap. It is all consuming. And then the Combine, the great body sale, the underwear olympics and (gasp) more conspiracies. And the Draft. The Holy coven and the largesse is distributed far and wide, and we celebrate, or commiserate (each to his own), and it is over. It is over. Withdrawal. It is painful, soul wrenching and never ending...until Training Camp!.

I will see myself out.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby NorthHawk » Thu Feb 23, 2023 9:34 am

Old but Slow wrote:I agree, NorthHawk. There could be some late (6th-7th round) value in the WR class if they opt for a one-dimensional type player. Perhaps an undersized route runner or something. That kind of pick can lead to an high upside with little risk.

There could be some late running backs, too. Devon Archane, for instance, is small (185) but has inhuman burst and world class speed. He is tough and can find the holes. Probably go in the 5th. Deuce Vaughn is similar, even smaller, but is exciting. Rob Staton lists 20 running backs that he projects to go in the draft, as well as 21 wide receivers. The only position group with that kind of depth is edge rushers (25).

This draft and offseason process is addicting. I find myself prowling around low joints seeking info. Getting into conspiracy theories, medical recovery rates, salary structures and the cap. It is all consuming. And then the Combine, the great body sale, the underwear olympics and (gasp) more conspiracies. And the Draft. The Holy coven and the largesse is distributed far and wide, and we celebrate, or commiserate (each to his own), and it is over. It is over. Withdrawal. It is painful, soul wrenching and never ending...until Training Camp!.

I will see myself out.


I hear you about the after draft hangover. I experience it, too.
I didn't realize the RB and WR class was so deep - nor the DE's, but how many DE's fit what we are trying to do?
If we get a RB, I would want one that has good receiving skills as that could add another dimension to our game plan and opposing Defenses would have to account for it, too. Charbonnet (sp) from UCLA looked to me like one of the best
combinations of pass catchers/route runners and ball carriers. He reminded me of Alvin Kamara of the Saints to some degree.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby Hawktawk » Thu Feb 23, 2023 9:43 am

Goodwin was injured and missed several games last year although he was very good when he played . Eskridge seemed like a serious reach and it didn’t help he got his brain scrambled with a vicious pile up early his rookie year . He had blurred vision for a couple months . He battled injury’s last year as well . He’s shown some flashes but looks like a 3rd down guy maybe , definitely a bad pick .
We need to talk about Tyler . He’s starting to slide like a qb to avoid contact , having nagging injuries and even a couple drops . I love Tyler and I’ll take what he’s still got but we better think ahead .
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby govandals » Thu Feb 23, 2023 10:07 am

NorthHawk wrote:With 4 picks in the first 52, we could get 4 of our needs including a WR and still improve the team.
I liked Eskridge, but he's never been healthy and hasn't produced to date. There should still be some good WRs into the 3rd round - if the Big Boards and Mock drafts are anywhere near close to the value they set on players.
Maybe Young has a future. He didn't show a lot last year and WRs arrive readier than most positions, but maybe it's taken him a while to get the Pro game straight.


I really liked Eskridge coming out. I thought he would be part Tyler Lockett and part Golden Tate. HIs time is running out to show he can stay healthy and produce.
I'm rooting for Dareke Young to show something this year. My son and I spoke with him for a few minutes at training camp last year. Nice kid, humble and well spoken, he became a favorite of ours. He came from a small school so maybe there is a steeper learning curve for him.

Crazy how people still talk about missing out on Creed Humphrey. He has turned out great while Eskridge obviously has not. But lets not forget that most teams passed on him not once but TWICE and he was not even the first center drafted that year. Pete and John were not the only ones who passed on him. I wonder if other fan bases talk of DK Metcalf like we talk of Creed Humphrey.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby NorthHawk » Thu Feb 23, 2023 12:54 pm

The difference with Humphrey is not all teams needed to upgrade their IOL and Center in particular.
We, after about 7 years still do. That's what annoys a lot of fans. Maybe this year it will be addressed, but I'm not holding my breath.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby RiverDog » Thu Feb 23, 2023 1:47 pm

Hawktawk wrote:Goodwin was injured and missed several games last year although he was very good when he played . Eskridge seemed like a serious reach and it didn’t help he got his brain scrambled with a vicious pile up early his rookie year . He had blurred vision for a couple months . He battled injury’s last year as well . He’s shown some flashes but looks like a 3rd down guy maybe , definitely a bad pick .
We need to talk about Tyler . He’s starting to slide like a qb to avoid contact , having nagging injuries and even a couple drops . I love Tyler and I’ll take what he’s still got but we better think ahead .


I didn't like the Eskridge pick because of the position. The 2nd round is awfully high for a #3 receiver especially given our needs.

I agree about Lockett. We might want to re-visit his contract, especially if we're going to overpay for Geno.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby NorthHawk » Thu Feb 23, 2023 4:33 pm

Teams often draft a WR as a #3 but move them up the ladder as they develop and the starters age out of the system or head to Free Agency if their price is more than the team wants to pay.
So let’s say we draft Josh Downs for example. He might start out as a #3, but replace Lockett in a couple of years.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby RiverDog » Thu Feb 23, 2023 7:25 pm

NorthHawk wrote:Teams often draft a WR as a #3 but move them up the ladder as they develop and the starters age out of the system or head to Free Agency if their price is more than the team wants to pay.
So let’s say we draft Josh Downs for example. He might start out as a #3, but replace Lockett in a couple of years.


That logic might be applicable this draft, but in 2021 a month before we drafted Eskridge, we signed Lockett to a 4 year, $69M contract. That's a long time for a high draft pick to stand around waiting for an opportunity to start. Don't forget, thanks to the Adams trade, we didn't have a first round pick that season, so Eskridge was the first player we drafted.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby NorthHawk » Thu Feb 23, 2023 8:15 pm

We needed a #3 WR that year, so it filled a hole on the roster.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby Aseahawkfan » Thu Feb 23, 2023 9:25 pm

Herndon Hooker looks like a Pete type of QB. I can see us drafting him. His TD-int ratio is exactly what Pete loves.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby mykc14 » Fri Feb 24, 2023 10:43 am

RiverDog wrote:I didn't like the Eskridge pick because of the position. The 2nd round is awfully high for a #3 receiver especially given our needs.

I agree about Lockett. We might want to re-visit his contract, especially if we're going to overpay for Geno.


I think Eskridge was more than a #3 receiver to us as he was a scheme fit in a new system. The McVay system loves that Jet motion guy who can run the Jet sweep and that is exactly what he brought. With him (if he turned out to be the player they hoped he would be) they could run a lot of 3 receiver 11 personnel (they were in this personnel 67% of their offensive plays Waldron's first year) essentially making him a starter and really he had the perfect physical profile for that Jet sweep slot receiver. In McVay's last year with the Rams they ran the Jet motion on almost 25% of their offensive plays! That's a huge number and I believe that is the main reason they drafted Eskridge. I think the biggest problem is that Lockett works so well out of the slot that we went away from the Jet motion, obviously not completely, but we don't run it as much as Waldron probably planned on running it when he was hired. Having Lockett's exceptional route running wasted on a Jet fake just isn't worth it and if you combine that with Eskridge's injury history it really looks like a bad pick, but if he could have stayed healthy I don't have a problem drafting a guy in the second round who is going to play almost 70% of our offensive snaps.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby mykc14 » Fri Feb 24, 2023 10:44 am

Aseahawkfan wrote:Herndon Hooker looks like a Pete type of QB. I can see us drafting him. His TD-int ratio is exactly what Pete loves.


If we don't draft a QB early I wouldn't have an issue at all with us drafting Hooker.
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby TriCitySam » Sat Feb 25, 2023 9:42 am

I like Hooker. Accurate and good deep ball thrower. On the mock simulators I normally get him in the 75-90 range. It normally goes DE, DI, C, LB, QB
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Re: Next up: the draft

Postby NorthHawk » Sat Feb 25, 2023 10:58 am

The Mock Draft simulators are fun to play, but they are dependent upon who is deciding the team needs and it seems to me that not many really look at Seattle at all except for a cursory look and deciding that they have a need at a position so they plug in the next player on their board regardless of scheme fit or the history of what we look for at that spot. For instance we've only drafted a couple of WR's that have run slower than 4.4 and yet we sometimes see players selected for us that are slower than that. And over the years I've seen OL/DL with short arms as picks as well.
But what they are good for is getting an idea of the overall talent and where they might be ranked by other teams from a talent perspective and not team fit.
We can then sharpen the focus on players and maybe decide that a candidate would fit our usual pattern for being drafted by us.
As well, the rankings are all over the map at this point and don't usually solidify until a couple of weeks after the Combine.
But it is fun to do to different simulators and see the varied drafts from each.
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