Off Season Anxiety

[tarlhawk]

Off season is the time many fans relish for optimism and the anxiety of who leaves the team and who arrives...and how those moves improve or add worries. All of this post is my opinion and is shared as such. As a fan with no inside knowledge my emotions sometimes ebb and flow with viewing the "expertise" of "outside" pundits. I enjoy listening to "Top Billin'" and "Matty F.Brown" podcasts myself.

I always look forward to the NFL draft for high risk drama rewarded by enough draft "feedback" to last my off season blues. My source of optimism is our coaching and front office. Talent acquired via draft or free agency needs nurtured and motivated to max out their production. I feel we have the coaching and schemes (offensively and defensively) to "trust" our coaching and our GM (who seems to continue to shape his decisions on self-reflection of his past failures and successes).

Bringing Bobby back seems to have shaped the sudden releasing of Al Woods. Adding Dre' Jones "cost" us Q-Jeff and Shelby Harris...and perhaps Poona Ford. An "opinion" I heard somewhere else that the addition of Jones/Reed/Bush and Love gave us a group who combined last year to only miss 4 tackles. If that's true...then the effort to lock down some tackling machines seems to be the motivation during this off season.

Was our inability to "shut down" the run a lack of effort/poor tackling technique ...or a reflection of scheme fit for often performing from a "light box" 3-3-5/2-4-5 and a "two high shell" with both safeties deep(out of the box)...or merely having lighter sized off linebackers who are quick to react/cover but vulnerable to a punishing full back/pulling guard mauler?

Was our defensive shift experiencing growing pains? Was our defensive architect the Big"Hurtt" or Sean Desai (who was just lured away recently)? The draft may give an early "tell" for our own teams version of going "all-in" for 2023. I am excited by what Schneider is capable of as a GM...my biggest question for the defense is "WHO" will be playing Nose Tackle (to keep our off-ball Linebackers "clean") and what will be the "fate" of Ryan Neal?

Reasons of excitement/concern:
Excited:
1) Geno re-signing a "team friendly" contract

2)potential impact on QB pressure adding Dre Jones to a trifecta of edge rushers DT/Nwosu/ and an emerging Boye Mafe

3)Emerging complimentary safety/corners secondary with options still not locked down with the addition of Julian Love and a healthy Tre Brown added to the mix

4) great expectations of a youthful solid offensive line(will our draft add another?)

5) DK and Lockett didn't "suffer" from the loss of RW.

Concerns:
1)Will the mix of Wags/Bush provide solid play till the healthy return of Jordyn Brooks?

2)The 49ers have re-emerged as neighborhood bullies

3)Can our D-Line get defensive penetration to stop more running plays in the backfield

4) Modern NFL film study ability puts pressure on Shane Waldron (Offensive Co-ordinator) and Clint Hurtt (Defensive Co-ordinator) to make constant effective adapting/responses

5) lingering key injuries to Jamal Adams/Jordyn Brooks/Bryan Mone

[NorthHawk]

I've heard a few comments that Mone has a serious injury and his career might be threatened so I'm not counting on him returning. If he does, great but I'm not planning for it to happen.

Last years Defense had a number of issues including bad tackling, young players learning, personnel playing out of their natural position (scheme fit) and general lack of cohesion. This year should be better, but the fundamentals need to be addressed.

I'm concerned about Cap space. Have we squandered the advantage of trading Wilson already? We are currently at almost full Cap spent and don't have any room for signing rookies without some big restructuring of contracts and players.

I think the cutting of Woods, Harris, and Jefferson was $ motivated. Woods is a great fit for NT in a 3-4 and Harris played well in Denver in a 3-4. I don't believe Wagner had anything to do with the DL, just no depth at ILB.

We have a lot of holes to fill in the draft and won't fill them all this year. We are another 2 years away from our expected window for going deep into the playoffs IF we have another good draft and find a QB that can be developed for that time frame. Last year was a big anomaly with 2 OTs starting and playing well - that rarely happens with 1 OT, but 2 is a real achievement. Hats off to the OL coaches for getting them ready.

This draft will tell us if Pete thinks we are just a couple of players away from a championship run. If they think so then we are going back to the same old mediocrity we've seen since 2015 and bad drafts. If we do the same as last year then we should be OK in the future and for a number of years.

[c_hawkbob]

I've got the least anxiety this of the last 4 or 5 anyway. I think we're absolutely killing free agency and I can't wait for the draft!

[mykc14]

I'm concerned about Cap space. Have we squandered the advantage of trading Wilson already? We are currently at almost full Cap spent and don't have any room for signing rookies without some big restructuring of contracts and players.

I think the cutting of Woods, Harris, and Jefferson was $ motivated. Woods is a great fit for NT in a 3-4 and Harris played well in Denver in a 3-4.

We are actually doing OK in cap space, our only real cap issues surround our Safety position- which has nothing to do with RW. I mean we have 36 mil in cap hits to two safeties, that is ridiculous. Imagine what we could have signed with that money. We also look really good next year and beyond as long as we can avoid a stupid contract like Adams at a non-premium position. Next year, if we decide to get rid of Adams we should have another 50+ million and if we can get a cheaper QB we could have closer to $70. Getting rid of Diggs could get us $80. The point is we are enjoying not having RW on our roster. If he was still here we would be cutting a lot more than Al Woods, Harris, and Jefferson. Besides, it's not like there are a ton of team's knocking down their doors. Obviously it was a combination of money and production that caused us to release those players.

[NorthHawk]

We currently are $746,000 over in effective Cap space according to overthecap.com.
Effective Cap space takes into account the expected cost of the rookie class.
So we are right on the edge and can’t afford any more FA signings without changes. Teams also keep about $5M free for filling holes when the inevitable injuries happen.

[Hawktawk]

We’re close . Front 7 is still a concern but less so . Wags may be more effective in a 3/4. We have the franchise back and excellent skill people , a motivated incentivized qb chip still squarely on shoulder . Almost certainly our draft will yield greater strengths .

And HT didn’t see us as quite as far away last year as many . Run defense? Absolutely I’m sure some of our worst in team history . But still some interesting things happened , encouraging . Lost in the loss to KC was holding a healthy lead in time of posession and first downs 17 to 14. There was a wall at the 30. But we held them to 24 at home with a defense I expect to be better this year .

The jets came in as road favorites still in contention and we beat them pretty easily .

And in the WC our offense went blow for blow with the 9ers , holding a halftime lead and being in the red zone late in the 3rd with a chance to tie before the strip sack . Is the glass half full or empty ? We’re a playoff team . Will Geno be Blake Bortles ? Can our defense be worse against the run ?
I don’t think so . Really looking forward to the draft .

[NorthHawk]

Every year is different of course, but last year we had a real string of good luck in the opponents we played.
Nobody thought the Broncos would be in as much disarray as they were and we caught a number of teams either going downhill or not playing like they did near the end of the year.
Maybe it will happen again, but maybe our luck will turn and be the opposite of last year and we are the team that disappoints for part of the season. We may have a team capable of squeaking into the playoffs, but we aren't a good team yet. That's a couple of years away as we have too many holes to fill even if we get another 4 starters in the draft. The current DL is very thin and the interior of the OL is likewise. Putting rookies in those positions can lead to big trouble and at the moment signing veteran FA's will be a struggle with almost no Cap space. It's possible we do well, but the probability that we luck out 2 years in a row is small.

[obiken]

I've got the least anxiety this of the last 4 or 5 anyway. I think we're absolutely killing free agency and I can't wait for the draft!

Long term I have anxiety over the ownership Bob.

[c_hawkbob]

I've got the least anxiety this of the last 4 or 5 anyway. I think we're absolutely killing free agency and I can't wait for the draft!

Long term I have anxiety over the ownership Bob.

Yeah that one can be a serious one. We've gone from the Nordstrom's to The Evil Ken Behring to The Allen's, that's really hitting both ends of the scale right there ... hopefully we break the pattern and get another good one.

That's an easy one for me to turn the heat way down on and put on the back burner though. I'm fixin to enjoy myself a couple years of 'till then' first.

[NorthHawk]

Yah, we have to live in the moment from an ownership PoV. There's not much we can do about it even when the team goes on the block.

[RiverDog]

Long term I have anxiety over the ownership Bob.

Yeah that one can be a serious one. We've gone from the Nordstrom's to The Evil Ken Behring to The Allen's, that's really hitting both ends of the scale right there ... hopefully we break the pattern and get another good one.

That's an easy one for me to turn the heat way down on and put on the back burner though. I'm fixin to enjoy myself a couple years of 'till then' first.

Yah, we have to live in the moment from an ownership PoV. There's not much we can do about it even when the team goes on the block.

I'm not too concerned with the future of our ownership, at least as far as franchise relocation goes. Now that LA has two teams, there isn't near the attraction there was back in the '90's when Behring attempted to move the team. As far as who we end up with as an owner, we won't know how good or bad they might be until they actually take over the team and start making decisions. Hopefully, we don't end up with a meddlesome owner like Jerry Jones.