The Way Too Early Prediction Thread

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Re: The Way Too Early Prediction Thread

Postby RiverDog » Sun Jun 11, 2023 11:22 am

c_hawkbob wrote:Blah Blah Blah, same old same old. If it was that easy there would be more teams doing it every year. Getting to the playoffs is job one, nothing good happens if you don't at least get to the dance. Once there anything can happen and being single elimination the better team does not always win, but under any and all circumstances it all starts with getting there.


No one said making the playoffs was easy, particularly for teams like the Browns, Texans, Jets, and Lions who go there once in a blue moon. But they don't hoist banners into the rafters celebrating making the playoffs in 3 out of the past 5 years, 5 out of the last 7 years, or whatever period of time you want to cite. All it means is that you were better than 43% of the rest of the league, or slightly above average. It's like celebrating a C+.

And yes, getting to the dance is an initial first step. But at some point, those second and third steps need to be taken. If all you want out of your team is to not be like the Lions, Texans, Browns, and Jets and be perfectly content with saying to yourself "gee, that was great, anything could have happened!" then I guess simply going to the playoffs is fine and dandy. But I want more.
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Re: The Way Too Early Prediction Thread

Postby tarlhawk » Sun Jun 11, 2023 3:55 pm

Last year was a very good season...all things considered...only 3 of our 9 losses were by 10 or more points (KC once and 49ers twice *incl playoffs) while we won 5 times by 10 or more...so we win and lose by close margins. Our belabored defense finished the season holding our last 3 opponents to 300 or less yards...including our loss to KC in which our defense held KC to its lowest total yards (297) of the season. 49ers crushed us and stomped on the burning embers of our playoff hopes so they remain a real thorn in us getting any real respect but 10 wins in 2023 are there for the taking even with a tougher batch of scheduled opponents. Go Hawks
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Re: The Way Too Early Prediction Thread

Postby RiverDog » Mon Jun 12, 2023 4:10 am

tarlhawk wrote:Last year was a very good season...all things considered...only 3 of our 9 losses were by 10 or more points (KC once and 49ers twice *incl playoffs) while we won 5 times by 10 or more...so we win and lose by close margins. Our belabored defense finished the season holding our last 3 opponents to 300 or less yards...including our loss to KC in which our defense held KC to its lowest total yards (297) of the season. 49ers crushed us and stomped on the burning embers of our playoff hopes so they remain a real thorn in us getting any real respect but 10 wins in 2023 are there for the taking even with a tougher batch of scheduled opponents. Go Hawks


A "very good" season? Given the expectations, I'd call it a good season, but unless you're the Lions, Browns, Texans, or Jets, I wouldn't consider a 9-8, back into the playoffs then one-and-done season as being 'very' good. It was a good building block for what is hopefully better seasons.

The 2022 season was a typical glass half full or glass half empty dilemma. You've chosen to look at the glass half full portion, but there is a glass half empty portion, too.

IMO 10 wins is a reasonable expectation. I have us duplicating our 9 wins from last season, so we're not too far apart. It remains to be seen just how tough our schedule is. We are in a relatively weak division, with both the Rams and Cards shaping up to be weaklings, but then again, the Rams, with nothing on the line for them, took us to OT in our last regular season game last year, so who knows.
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Re: The Way Too Early Prediction Thread

Postby tarlhawk » Mon Jun 12, 2023 6:05 am

I labeled it "very good" in the context of our 2021 season putting our team at a cross roads. We allowed our respected starting QB to "seek" greener pastures even though we were still left financially hamstrung by the "dead money" impacting our available cap money (forcing a release of Wags who unlike RW wanted to stay). Limited in free agency John Schneider still hit pay dirt with Uchenna Nwosu's signing being a big reason our defense didn't implode as it got caught in the flux of transforming to a newer way of meshing our coverage and pass rush together. The 2022 season can set the mark of recovery in the right direction since 2021 definitely had us floundering. Go Hawks
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Re: The Way Too Early Prediction Thread

Postby NorthHawk » Mon Jun 12, 2023 7:08 am

It was good in the sense that it showed that the team was beginning to chart a new course. The change in drafting philosophy and the good fortune of players being there when our selection came up was a real bonus in that change.
The Offense was allowed to slip the shackles of the Peteball philosophy of the past and show that a modern day attack is needed in today's NFL.
Those were the good parts of last year.
The Defense was again a disappointment but the team as a whole showed overall improvement. We were also lucky that we caught some teams before they really got going and that Denver never really did although they played better after dumping Hackett. One more loss would be giving us a completely different look on last year so fortune did smile upon us. Let's hope that luck continues this year.
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Re: The Way Too Early Prediction Thread

Postby RiverDog » Mon Jun 12, 2023 7:49 am

In retrospect, we did catch a few breaks the way our schedule fell last year. We caught the Lions early when they were in the middle of a stretch where they went 1-6 and their defense was allowing an average of 30+ ppg before they turned it around to go 8-3 and when their defense played much better, and we caught the Jets late after they had gone 6-3 and when they were in the middle of a 1-7 face plant.

This season, our schedule would seem to be backloaded as in our last 7 games, we play the Niners twice along with the Eagles and Cowboys. Of course, that's all on paper.
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Re: The Way Too Early Prediction Thread

Postby NorthHawk » Mon Jun 12, 2023 8:50 am

Speaking for myself, I would feel the same if we had an 8-9 record as we did 9-8 as for me, last year was about getting better and improving the talent level. So it was a success from that viewpoint.
I'm hoping that this years draft will provide more optimism as I think there are 3 or 4 players that could start or at least be very competent backups should the starter be injured. The needle is pointing in the right direction for the first time in about 6 or 7 years, but I think we are about 2 years away (maybe less) from really being trouble for the rest of the league.
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Re: The Way Too Early Prediction Thread

Postby RiverDog » Mon Jun 12, 2023 9:35 am

NorthHawk wrote:Speaking for myself, I would feel the same if we had an 8-9 record as we did 9-8 as for me, last year was about getting better and improving the talent level. So it was a success from that viewpoint.
I'm hoping that this years draft will provide more optimism as I think there are 3 or 4 players that could start or at least be very competent backups should the starter be injured. The needle is pointing in the right direction for the first time in about 6 or 7 years, but I think we are about 2 years away (maybe less) from really being trouble for the rest of the league.


I'm not putting a numerical value on my ultimate satisfaction. I want to see this defense improve, something like in the top half of the league, something that we haven't seen in eons. It's simply not acceptable to have a HC that is supposedly the top defensive mind of his era turning out garbage like he has for the better part of a decade. I'm tired of all the lip service and excuses.
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Re: The Way Too Early Prediction Thread

Postby tarlhawk » Mon Jun 12, 2023 11:13 am

RiverDog wrote:I'm not putting a numerical value on my ultimate satisfaction. I want to see this defense improve, something like in the top half of the league, something that we haven't seen in eons. It's simply not acceptable to have a HC that is supposedly the top defensive mind of his era turning out garbage like he has for the better part of a decade. I'm tired of all the lip service and excuses.


You are almost at times like a politician who needs fact checked. Since I know you're fixated on yds and not pts allowed...I still see your "Eons" as being from 2019 thru 2022 ( a long stretch of 4 seasons) yet somehow in 2019 and 2020 RW must have carried our "garbage" defense kicking and screaming to 11-5 (2019) and 12-4(2020) records. As for "garbage...the better part of a decade" ...let's see 2022-10 yrs (decade) takes us back to 2012...def ranking beginning in 2012 (again...yds only) 4th (2012)/1rst/1rst/2nd/5th/11th/16th/26th/22nd/28th/26th (2022). First 5 yrs of your "decade of garbage football" our defense finished top 5 all 5 yrs and tops in 2013/2014...so your decade must be a "prediction" going forward from 2019...so 2029??

I apologize ahead of time for my sarcasm knowing you couldn't possibly mean literally speaking...but answered with your "dig" on Pete "supposedly" being recognized and respected as a defensive minded coach. I respect your opinion I just differ with the "essence" of your expression. Go Hawks
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Re: The Way Too Early Prediction Thread

Postby RiverDog » Wed Jun 14, 2023 10:00 am

RiverDog wrote:I'm not putting a numerical value on my ultimate satisfaction. I want to see this defense improve, something like in the top half of the league, something that we haven't seen in eons. It's simply not acceptable to have a HC that is supposedly the top defensive mind of his era turning out garbage like he has for the better part of a decade. I'm tired of all the lip service and excuses.


tarlhawk wrote:You are almost at times like a politician who needs fact checked. Since I know you're fixated on yds and not pts allowed...I still see your "Eons" as being from 2019 thru 2022 ( a long stretch of 4 seasons) yet somehow in 2019 and 2020 RW must have carried our "garbage" defense kicking and screaming to 11-5 (2019) and 12-4(2020) records. As for "garbage...the better part of a decade" ...let's see 2022-10 yrs (decade) takes us back to 2012...def ranking beginning in 2012 (again...yds only) 4th (2012)/1rst/1rst/2nd/5th/11th/16th/26th/22nd/28th/26th (2022). First 5 yrs of your "decade of garbage football" our defense finished top 5 all 5 yrs and tops in 2013/2014...so your decade must be a "prediction" going forward from 2019...so 2029??

I apologize ahead of time for my sarcasm knowing you couldn't possibly mean literally speaking...but answered with your "dig" on Pete "supposedly" being recognized and respected as a defensive minded coach. I respect your opinion I just differ with the "essence" of your expression. Go Hawks


Every stat has its weakness, and certainly total yards isn't a complete, 100% accurate assessment of offense and defense performance. But most analysts use this metric to rank both offensive and defensive performance over other stats. The problem with using points scored/allowed is that all three units, offense, defense, and special teams, can score points. Offenses and special teams can give up field position via a turnover, 3-and-out inside the 10, etc., putting the opposing offense in immediate scoring position, in some cases not requiring so much as a single yard gained/allowed by the defense. The total yards metric has a similar weakness in this regard, but not to nearly the same degree as points scored. And unlike points, with yards, they're all owned 100% by the offense and/or defense.

Bottom line when an analyst says something like "The Chiefs have the #1 offense in the league", they are referring to total yards. If they use another measure, they'll qualify it by say something like "The 49'ers have the #1 points defense in the league."

No need to offer any apologies. I fully expect people that are in Pete's corner to rise to his defense when I use somewhat corrosive terms to describe his performance. I'd like to think that my ego isn't that delicate. But thanks for your consideration anyway. :D
Last edited by RiverDog on Wed Jun 14, 2023 3:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Way Too Early Prediction Thread

Postby MackStrongIsMyHero » Wed Jun 14, 2023 11:00 am

More damning than anything else is the inability to stop the run and get off the field on 3rd downs.

It has been several (5+) years since this defense was playing at a high level, so I get the sentiment.

To beat my dead horse, I have cautious faith in Pete turning the defense around based on the last two drafts only because he's getting back to youth and competition.
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Re: The Way Too Early Prediction Thread

Postby tarlhawk » Fri Jun 16, 2023 11:37 am

MackStrongIsMyHero wrote:More damning than anything else is the inability to stop the run and get off the field on 3rd downs.

It has been several (5+) years since this defense was playing at a high level, so I get the sentiment.

To beat my dead horse, I have cautious faith in Pete turning the defense around based on the last two drafts only because he's getting back to youth and competition.


Your concerns are shared by many fans. It isn't always about personnel ...as many "factors" can influence our vulnerability to an opponents rushing attack.

300 lb "active" guards play a bigger role as more offenses shift to a zone blocking scheme and less power/gap sets. 325 lb plus Nose tackles are key to 3-4 fronts to occupy double teams keeping that "2nd man" from shedding off into your attacking LB (washing him out of the play)...keeping both parties of a double team engaged is selfless but essential to keeping your gap filling LB "clean" to make the tackle head on...instead of from behind.

Another big factor is a "slow" offense (slow to find its rhythm) that's forced to catch up after half time...when your team falls behind early your opponent makes it harder for you to catch up by mixing in more rushing plays to eat up the clock (our infamous TOP problems) to minimize the time available to obtain a lead. Our offense is now geared to being more dynamic in picking up first downs which should allow our offense to find its rhythm earlier in games vice later. We've made some defensive personnel changes as well but if our offense continues to push/pull ahead that will be a big "help" to keep our opponents from "dialing up" their rushing attack.

As a team we need to stop keeping the game close and open up our scoring mixing in longer sustained drives (balanced run support) with quick strike delivery to keep our opponents guessing...this will reflect the burden in Shane Waldron being even more bolder/creative in his play calling...especially later in the year as our opponents film study starts to spot our "tendencies". It should be a good year! Go Hawks
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Re: The Way Too Early Prediction Thread

Postby NorthHawk » Sat Jun 17, 2023 6:38 am

The 'slow start' is part of the Peteball philosophy.
That is to keep the game close and win at the end. When asked about how they thought the game should go, Pete responded he would like to win a 23-17 game with a score at the end. Russel Wilson's reply was why don't we score 23 in the first half?
It showed the split in philosophies and how it can frustrate a very good QB.
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Re: The Way Too Early Prediction Thread

Postby Old but Slow » Sat Jun 17, 2023 8:16 am

It has never made sense to me what advantage there is to the slow start, strong finish approach. For a team that wants to focus on the running game, it would seem best to get in front and then wear down the opponent with the backs. Playing from behind tends to lead to more passing.
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Re: The Way Too Early Prediction Thread

Postby NorthHawk » Sat Jun 17, 2023 9:49 am

Old but Slow wrote:It has never made sense to me what advantage there is to the slow start, strong finish approach. For a team that wants to focus on the running game, it would seem best to get in front and then wear down the opponent with the backs. Playing from behind tends to lead to more passing.


Most likely the reason Wilson had the most comeback wins during a stretch of his career.
And it probably cost a few wins, too.
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Re: The Way Too Early Prediction Thread

Postby Aseahawkfan » Sat Jun 17, 2023 1:13 pm

I don't think there was any intent to start slow, it's what happened quite a bit.
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Re: The Way Too Early Prediction Thread

Postby RiverDog » Sun Jun 18, 2023 4:04 am

Aseahawkfan wrote:I don't think there was any intent to start slow, it's what happened quite a bit.


I don't think so, either. There's a difference between playing conservative football by running the ball to reduce the risk of turnovers, punting on 4th and short to avoid putting the defense in bad spots, taking the points by kicking a FG when in scoring position vs. playing football's version of the 4-corner offense, designed not to score but to keep the ball away from the opposing offense.
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Re: The Way Too Early Prediction Thread

Postby NorthHawk » Sun Jun 18, 2023 9:16 am

I've heard different former players and sports people say in effect the philosophy with Wilson was to keep it close then in the 4th Quarter give him the ball and say go win it for us.
By those kinds of statements we can deduce that (at least) the perception was to not be aggressive offensively until the 2nd half and the games played out many times in that type of fashion. It's notable that when we went off script was when the Defense was having one of it's worst seasons. Then we started out fast and tried to keep ahead and won the first 5 games. We had no other choice at that point if we wanted a chance to win.
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Re: The Way Too Early Prediction Thread

Postby RiverDog » Sun Jun 18, 2023 11:49 am

NorthHawk wrote:I've heard different former players and sports people say in effect the philosophy with Wilson was to keep it close then in the 4th Quarter give him the ball and say go win it for us.
By those kinds of statements we can deduce that (at least) the perception was to not be aggressive offensively until the 2nd half and the games played out many times in that type of fashion. It's notable that when we went off script was when the Defense was having one of it's worst seasons. Then we started out fast and tried to keep ahead and won the first 5 games. We had no other choice at that point if we wanted a chance to win.


I'm not sure how a statement like "keep games close," equates to an intentional slow start, which suggests that the objective for the offense is something other than scoring points.

In my view, keeping games close translates to a ball control, move the chains, win the TOP battle, reduce the risk of turnovers, and avoid plays that may result in large losses. It doesn't necessarily mean that you hand off on third and 3 or that you don't take the occasional deep shot,
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Re: The Way Too Early Prediction Thread

Postby tarlhawk » Sun Jun 18, 2023 2:45 pm

Philosophy?? Sounds absurd to have your team "intentionally" keep a game close...keeping the other team in striking distance...someone's "reaching" here to get that idea when a coach is asked what kind of game would you like to win...Pete favors a competitive game which required your team to overcome adversity...not an easy win where the game was decided before half time. The NFL also favors close games undecided till the 4th quarter for tv ratings purposes. The object is to win...he desires low risk balanced effort vice quick strike risk averse shootouts with an opponent ...but that's not dictating we allow a close scoring game if we can run up the score with longer drives that eat up the clock. Dan Marino and Dan Fouts in the 80's scored quickly and often...but their defenses suffered in the long run always being ranked in the lower 3rd or worse rankings. Bob Griese before Marino's arrival had a balanced attack of running (Csonka/Mercury Morris/Jim Kiick) and sudden strike capability to Paul Warfield and the Dolphin defense had a better reputation during Griese's time. Pete is not "forcing" his QB to "hold back"...but you better not be throwing picks and /or causing 3 and outs when the game isn't dictating the need to abandon the run. The whole team offense and defense benefits from low turnovers and longer drives. Go Hawks
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Re: The Way Too Early Prediction Thread

Postby NorthHawk » Sun Jun 18, 2023 2:51 pm

Well, it’s what he said, so…
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Re: The Way Too Early Prediction Thread

Postby tarlhawk » Sun Jun 18, 2023 4:04 pm

Here's an article from 2018 after a ridiculous Monday Night Football game between KC Chiefs and the Rams that gives more insight of Pete's philosophy and why...


Nov 20, 2018 at 06:12 PM
John Boyle Seahawks.com Senior Reporter
Like everyone else watching Monday night's high-scoring showdown between the Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City Chiefs, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll was entertained by what he saw on his television.

Monday's "amazing" shootout, which the Rams won 54-51, featured not just 105 points, but also 56 first downs, 1,001 total yards, nine lead changes and 18 plays of 20 or more yards. It was unambiguously entertaining, but that doesn't mean, even in today's NFL, it's the only way to succeed.

The way Carroll—and plenty of other accomplished coaches, for that matter—views it, there is still a lot of value in having a running game that can help control the clock, and in playing good defense and taking care of the ball on offense. As fun as those back and forth quick scoring drives are, they can put stress on a defense—in Monday's game, only one possession took more than five minutes off the clock, and the teams combined for 30 possessions. And as impressive as both offenses were, they also combined to turn the ball over seven times, including five by the Chiefs, who very well could have won if they had avoided even one of those turnovers, two of which were defensive touchdowns for the Rams defense.

Carroll has a lot of respect for the offensive minds leading teams like the Rams, Chiefs and Saints—he has raved about Rams coach Sean McVay's influence on the team prior to both meetings this season—he just prefers to coach a little bit different style of football, one that has produced a lot of sustained success at the college and NFL levels. Relying on a strong running game, efficient quarterback play and a great defense, the Seahawks won 10 or more games for five straight seasons from 2012-2016, advancing to at least the divisional round of the playoffs each year and reaching the Super Bowl twice, winning it once, and they allowed the fewest points in the NFL in four of those seasons. That stretch was highlighted by a Super Bowl-winning season that was capped off by Seattle holding a historically great Broncos offense to 8 points in Super Bowl XLVIII.

"You know, I don't mind being different at all," Carroll said. "I didn't mind it when we were in college either. We weren't spreading out and doing all the stuff that other people were doing. We were running a pretty balanced attack back in the day and ran for a lot of yards with a lot of big time running backs. I think it's a great way to play. When I look at—in college football and to look back, I look at the way that Nick (Saban) is doing his stuff (at Alabama)—they are still a very formidable running attack always. And in that when you're playing all-spread teams week and week out, it's a big transition for you, and being unique is OK, particularly when you're being aggressive and tough."

And don't take Carroll's desire to still have a balanced, turnover-averse offense for a willingness to sacrifice production. The Seahawks have their own way of doing things, but they still expect to be explosive and score points. And since Week 4 when they started a streak of seven straight games with more than 150 rushing yards, the Seahawks rank 11th in scoring (25.9), eighth in points per drive (2.48), second in quarterback rating (118.1), ninth in explosive plays (61), ninth in red-zone touchdown percentage (68 percent), all while committing only four turnovers, which is tied for the fewest in the NFL over that span.

And when you factor in how Seattle's running game and lack of turnovers can help take pressure off of the defense, it's easy to understand why Carroll likes his team's style, even if it might not quite move the needle in the same way two teams trading touchdowns on Monday night does for a casual fan.
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Re: The Way Too Early Prediction Thread

Postby Old but Slow » Sun Jun 18, 2023 10:50 pm

It is hard to argue against that, and I agree with the approach to the offense. What I question is the initial part of the game. Pete seems to like to use the time to spar with the opponent and assess where weaknesses may be, while I would like to see that as the time to try for a quick strike, get a lead and then control the clock.

Granted, it is easier said than done to just go out and score, but that is the part of the game when a risk can be taken with time remaining to make up for any mistakes (pick 6?). Later in the game a mistake can be fatal.

I have been vocal about Pete and have said I would like to see him retire. I am backing off. Partly because I can not think of a good replacement, but mainly because I am sensing some kind of tidal change. Maybe he is a wizard after all. I will be watching to see if there is any magic.
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Re: The Way Too Early Prediction Thread

Postby NorthHawk » Sun Jun 18, 2023 11:36 pm

We’ll see if he continues to let the Offense evolve or if he again pulls the rug out from it.
As well it’s been hinted that he might be wavering on the 3-4 Defense in favor of his old 4-3.
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Re: The Way Too Early Prediction Thread

Postby RiverDog » Mon Jun 19, 2023 3:16 am

tarlhawk wrote:Philosophy?? Sounds absurd to have your team "intentionally" keep a game close...keeping the other team in striking distance...someone's "reaching" here to get that idea when a coach is asked what kind of game would you like to win...Pete favors a competitive game which required your team to overcome adversity...not an easy win where the game was decided before half time. The NFL also favors close games undecided till the 4th quarter for tv ratings purposes. The object is to win...he desires low risk balanced effort vice quick strike risk averse shootouts with an opponent ...but that's not dictating we allow a close scoring game if we can run up the score with longer drives that eat up the clock. Dan Marino and Dan Fouts in the 80's scored quickly and often...but their defenses suffered in the long run always being ranked in the lower 3rd or worse rankings. Bob Griese before Marino's arrival had a balanced attack of running (Csonka/Mercury Morris/Jim Kiick) and sudden strike capability to Paul Warfield and the Dolphin defense had a better reputation during Griese's time. Pete is not "forcing" his QB to "hold back"...but you better not be throwing picks and /or causing 3 and outs when the game isn't dictating the need to abandon the run. The whole team offense and defense benefits from low turnovers and longer drives. Go Hawks


I tend to come down on tarlhawk's side on this debate. I don't have any problem with Pete's overall philosophy of "keeping games close". As has been noted in other threads, our demise over the past few years hasn't been due to our offensive performance as much as it has been the decline of our defense.

Apologizing in advance for my stats monkey analysis, I have to point out that our current offense is in relatively good shape (ranked 13th overall in 2022), and that our biggest problems lie on the defensive side of the ball (ranked 26th overall), in particular, our ability to stop the run (ranked 30th).
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Re: The Way Too Early Prediction Thread

Postby tarlhawk » Mon Jun 19, 2023 6:18 am

Riv I know you're not a big advocate of using high draft capital on WR...but DK, Tyler and now JSN all are a step above most of the recent "flood" of athletes all using the WR position as their "ticket" to the NFL. A rush defense ranked that low would be more worrisome if it was consistently the result of poor athletes at the position.

I really think our offense holds the key to limiting the impact of an opponents rush attack. JSN is actually a rare talent at his position (Texas is known as football country in American culture and in high school its no small accomplishment for a WR to end his high school career challenging to be one of the best in Texas history). Geno needs that "safety valve" to go to when the chips are down and with DK and Tyler roaming the field your opponents best shutdown corner will already be occupied...win/win.

Our evolving defense is a mesh of "3-4" and "4-3 under" schemes to create enough post snap surprises to make the QB hesitate in the passing game. Running plays are more straight forward so your LB/Safety gap responsibility has to be solid/understood for the various schemes being employed as "disguise". Our "simpler" defenses from just a few years back made it easier for our defense to "process" their individual responsibility for a given play...but gave an edge to making it easier for the QB to "read" our called defense based on what he saw "pre-snap". Linebackers and safeties are still the key to stopping explosive runs...tackling corners that are willing to get dirty are a big help as well when being forced to "set the edge" on outside zone runs. Go Hawks
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Re: The Way Too Early Prediction Thread

Postby NorthHawk » Mon Jun 19, 2023 6:50 am

I tend to come down on tarlhawk's side on this debate. I don't have any problem with Pete's overall philosophy of "keeping games close". As has been noted in other threads, our demise over the past few years hasn't been due to our offensive performance as much as it has been the decline of our defense.

Apologizing in advance for my stats monkey analysis, I have to point out that our current offense is in relatively good shape (ranked 13th overall in 2022), and that our biggest problems lie on the defensive side of the ball (ranked 26th overall), in particular, our ability to stop the run (ranked 30th).


We've been lamenting the Offenses slow starts for a decade or more under more than one OC and numerous Offensive personnel changes and additions. Pete has said he would rather keep it close and win at the end, so what is it?
Would it be that his you can't win in the first quarter but you can win in the 4th philosophy and his it's not how you start but how you finish mantra keeping the Offense suppressed early? It's interesting to note that when we did start fast for those games we did, the Defense wasn't playing very well. It's almost like he knew we couldn't keep the score close so he let the Offense start fast, but once the Defense improved, we went back to slow starts. It will be interesting to see if the same pattern happens once this Defense gets going.
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Re: The Way Too Early Prediction Thread

Postby RiverDog » Mon Jun 19, 2023 9:54 am

RiverDog wrote:I tend to come down on tarlhawk's side on this debate. I don't have any problem with Pete's overall philosophy of "keeping games close". As has been noted in other threads, our demise over the past few years hasn't been due to our offensive performance as much as it has been the decline of our defense.

Apologizing in advance for my stats monkey analysis, I have to point out that our current offense is in relatively good shape (ranked 13th overall in 2022), and that our biggest problems lie on the defensive side of the ball (ranked 26th overall), in particular, our ability to stop the run (ranked 30th).


NorthHawk wrote:We've been lamenting the Offenses slow starts for a decade or more under more than one OC and numerous Offensive personnel changes and additions. Pete has said he would rather keep it close and win at the end, so what is it?
Would it be that his you can't win in the first quarter but you can win in the 4th philosophy and his it's not how you start but how you finish mantra keeping the Offense suppressed early? It's interesting to note that when we did start fast for those games we did, the Defense wasn't playing very well. It's almost like he knew we couldn't keep the score close so he let the Offense start fast, but once the Defense improved, we went back to slow starts. It will be interesting to see if the same pattern happens once this Defense gets going.


An expressed preference doesn't mean that he goes into every game with the same philosophy. It's simply a statement meaning that all things being equal, that's how he figures his best chance of winning is, especially against a superior opponent.

IMO our problems haven't been due to faulty game planning. We simply don't have quality players on the roster like we did during the LOB years.
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Re: The Way Too Early Prediction Thread

Postby NorthHawk » Mon Jun 19, 2023 10:15 am

But the same slow starts continued with lesser opponents as well over the years.
Teams we should have thumped early were often in the game from the start.
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Re: The Way Too Early Prediction Thread

Postby tarlhawk » Mon Jun 19, 2023 11:57 am

All the lamenting of late starts and playing to the level of our opponent are now speculated to be a thing of the past. JSN is the key to unlocking real dilemma for our opponents defense and Walker III will be able to exploit more light boxes as the opponents 2nd safety and nickel guy will be hard pressed to double up DK and Tyler with JSN working the middle. JSN is already the type of receiver who improves his QB accuracy since even a less accurate QB can throw to an open receiver...so Geno already has great accuracy and range so less frustration for Geno.

Our slow starts are more a reflection of very conservative "scripted" plays...which most NFL teams (maybe all?) use for their first couple of series...to kinda gauge how "ready" the opponents defense is for what we want to do...once the "gloves" come off. This is where Pete's "influence" on what Shane sets up is actually felt by Waldron...but if JSN convinces Pete that Geno can safely open up the playbook early...then it should be win/win. Some teams use the 1rst quarter to "feel out" the opponents defensive reaction to scripted plays while some more daring teams might invite more risk into their scripted plays hoping to catch a defense unaware. If we can "take more shots" without sacrificing for a ratcheted risk chance ...we could be moving past a cross-roads. Go Hawks
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Re: The Way Too Early Prediction Thread

Postby RiverDog » Mon Jun 19, 2023 1:40 pm

NorthHawk wrote:But the same slow starts continued with lesser opponents as well over the years.
Teams we should have thumped early were often in the game from the start.


I'm still not convinced. The 'slow starts' you're referring to are simply an unintended consequence of a conservative game plan whose intention is to reduce the number of plays ran by the opposing offense by controlling the ball and running time off the clock. It's the opposite philosophy of Chip Kelly's "Quack Attack", a continual hurry-up offense whose intent was to maximize the number of offensive plays by essentially expanding the game clock and was by all accounts a dismal failure as it frequently put their defense back on the field with little rest.
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Re: The Way Too Early Prediction Thread

Postby NorthHawk » Mon Jun 19, 2023 2:15 pm

As stated before, Pete said his preferred type of game is to keep it close and win it at the end.
Combine the two happenings of his statement and how we've played and there may very well be a correlation. It's been evident over the course of a decade but an exception when the Defense was playing poorly and points were needed.

A couple of years back when told how Pete wanted to play and win a 23 - 17 game with a flurry at the end, Wilson said why not score 23 in the first half? So it would appear that the philosophy was suppressing the Offense early from the QBs PoV by being overly conservative.

But maybe with the Offense playing well last year and the Defense still suspect, Pete will have abandoned that philosophy along with the 4-3 Under Defense he relied on for so long. It will be welcome news if he has.
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Re: The Way Too Early Prediction Thread

Postby tarlhawk » Mon Jun 19, 2023 4:41 pm

NorthHawk wrote:As stated before, Pete said his preferred type of game is to keep it close and win it at the end.
Combine the two happenings of his statement and how we've played and there may very well be a correlation. It's been evident over the course of a decade but an exception when the Defense was playing poorly and points were needed.

A couple of years back when told how Pete wanted to play and win a 23 - 17 game with a flurry at the end, Wilson said why not score 23 in the first half? So it would appear that the philosophy was suppressing the Offense early from the QBs PoV by being overly conservative.

But maybe with the Offense playing well last year and the Defense still suspect, Pete will have abandoned that philosophy along with the 4-3 Under Defense he relied on for so long. It will be welcome news if he has.


This "view" isn't "supported" by any comments...its too absurd and how would you get "total team Buy-in" to accept such an extreme idea when these guys come from winning programs in college that often run up scores to become higher ranked? Russell heard Pete favors the feeling of winning a close game in the 4th quarter and expresses a counter view if he had been asked the question...nothing said implies that Pete "restrains the team forcefully" in its approach to game planning.

How come you don't understand Pete was giving the type of game he would get satisfaction out of...not any "instruction" to the QB to "keep it close until the end"...that's not a coaching "philosophy" that's an expression of what he finds personally satisfying...his philosophy is your team is given its best chance to win by a strong running game that eats up the clock allowing the defense to rest...and an efficient QB (one who blends in the passing game to keep the chains moving with longer sustained drives so if you don't score you at least are giving your opponent starting field position closer to their end zone instead of ours) less stress on your defense and lowers the risk of turnovers.
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Re: The Way Too Early Prediction Thread

Postby RiverDog » Mon Jun 19, 2023 6:15 pm

NorthHawk wrote:As stated before, Pete said his preferred type of game is to keep it close and win it at the end.
Combine the two happenings of his statement and how we've played and there may very well be a correlation. It's been evident over the course of a decade but an exception when the Defense was playing poorly and points were needed.

A couple of years back when told how Pete wanted to play and win a 23 - 17 game with a flurry at the end, Wilson said why not score 23 in the first half? So it would appear that the philosophy was suppressing the Offense early from the QBs PoV by being overly conservative.

But maybe with the Offense playing well last year and the Defense still suspect, Pete will have abandoned that philosophy along with the 4-3 Under Defense he relied on for so long. It will be welcome news if he has.


I don't see any evidence of this.

Last season, we were ranked 9th in points scored. In our horrible 2021 season, we were ranked 16th. In 2020, we were ranked 8th in scoring. In 2019, we were ranked 9th. In 2018, we were ranked 8th. In 2017, we were ranked 11th.

So, over the past 6 seasons, we have not had one single team ranked in the bottom half of the league in scoring. If Pete's trying to limit scoring to keep games close so he can win it in the 4th quarter, he hasn't been doing a very good job of it.
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Re: The Way Too Early Prediction Thread

Postby NorthHawk » Tue Jun 20, 2023 6:53 am

How are we ranked in the first half for scoring? I've never seen stats like that. We've had many discussions about the Offense not performing until the 2nd half and wondering where that was in the first half.
It wasn't simply adjustments at half time, it was a more open Offense as we often trailed going into the 2nd half and Wilson had the most comeback wins over the course of years on teams that were very good that included our SB years and a few years after.
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Re: The Way Too Early Prediction Thread

Postby tarlhawk » Tue Jun 20, 2023 8:00 am

In 2022 the Seahawks held 11 half time leads winning all but 3 of them. The 7 games we were losing at half time we only managed to win one. So out of 18 games played (including our playoff loss) we won 8 of our games while leading at half time but only once when fallen behind at half time...its a slow emergence from falling behind early but moving in the right direction.


Half time leads and finishes:
Den (17-13) W17-16/...ATL (20-17) L23-27/...Det (24-15) W48-45/...N.O. (19-17) L32-39/...ARZ (9-3) W19-9/...LACh (24-14) W37-23/...NYG (10-7) W27-13/...ARZ (10-7) W31-21/...LAR (14-13) W27-23/...NYJ (17-6) W23-6/...49ers *playoffs* (17-16) L23-41.


Half time behind and finishes:
49ers (0-20) L7-27/...Tam (0-14) L16-21/...LVR (20-24) L34-40/...CAR (14-20) L24-30/...49ers (3-14) L13-21/...KC (3-17) L10-24/...LAR (6-13) W19-16.
Losing at half time we only overcame the LA Rams in our final game so getting an "early" lead plays a big role as we head into 2023. Go Hawks
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Re: The Way Too Early Prediction Thread

Postby NorthHawk » Tue Jun 20, 2023 8:14 am

That was last year with a much more progressive Offense. I was thinking years past during the Peteball era.
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Re: The Way Too Early Prediction Thread

Postby RiverDog » Tue Jun 20, 2023 9:24 am

NorthHawk wrote:How are we ranked in the first half for scoring? I've never seen stats like that. We've had many discussions about the Offense not performing until the 2nd half and wondering where that was in the first half.
It wasn't simply adjustments at half time, it was a more open Offense as we often trailed going into the 2nd half and Wilson had the most comeback wins over the course of years on teams that were very good that included our SB years and a few years after.


I can't answer that question. All I am saying is that I see no evidence that supports your intentional slow start theory. If you feel that the bulk of our scoring occurred in the 2nd half, then do some homework as I have done and present it for inspection.
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Re: The Way Too Early Prediction Thread

Postby Aseahawkfan » Tue Jun 20, 2023 3:18 pm

There was never any intent to start slow or score less. Pete wants to score all the time. In the NFL, scoring is up and down for every single team. Sometimes you roll strong and put up 50 as we have done, sometimes you're in a defensive dog fight, sometimes an offense shootout, it all just depends on the opponent and how well your clicking. No one decides to start slow or score slow or want to win only in the fourth quarter.
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Re: The Way Too Early Prediction Thread

Postby Old but Slow » Tue Jun 20, 2023 6:10 pm

Starting slow is maybe the wrong way of talking about it. What I see is that Pete likes to feel out the opponent, making conservative calls until he has a grip on what the other team is doing. For me, I would prefer to force the other team to be adapting to us rather than us adapting to them. It reminds me of a boxer who goes easy early to find the other fighters weak spots before turning up the attack. It is a conservative approach, smart, and has been successful much of the time. But, it is an approach for a team that fears it is over matched. If you are confident, you do not worry about what the other team can do, because you know you can handle it, so no need to take a soft introduction.

Maybe we are not yet good enough for an aggressive game plan, but I would like to see the team become that good.
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