Geno Smith regression?? Not likely

[tarlhawk]

The excitement of our quarterback room seems very apparent to me as a fan. Touting Geno Smith does not rely on throwing dirt on RW or even making that contrast of skills. Geno has impressed me very much by removing two of my doubts about his makeup as a QB. I bought into the labeling of Geno as a "dink and dunk" QB who would hurt the opportunities of DK and Tyler to continue to terrorize our opponents secondary. Geno actually was the best in the NFL in the Deep Pass (according to Next Generation Stats). As the season progressed it became apparent that Geno has the tools to excell using the entire field and range of throws.

In his first season as a starter in Seattle, the fourth-year Seahawk led the NFL with a 69.8 completion percentage and set franchise records in completions (399) and yards (4,282). He led the league with ten games in which he had a passer rating of 100-plus.


The second area of concern I had was his "rep" for throwing picks. As a QB who throws into tight windows the opportunity for throwing actual picks as well as many "just missed" picks are going to be part of any high performing NFL QB.

According to Player Profiler, Smith was third in “Money Throws” last season, which are passes requiring exceptional skill or athleticism as well as critical throws executed in clutch moments. He was third in Deep Ball Accuracy Rating and fourth in True Completion Percentage.

His support was outstanding with Tyler Lockett/DK Metcalf/Noah Fant/Ken Walker III all playing major roles as play makers...and a young developing line with rookie bookend tackles in Charles Cross/Abraham Lucas and a pair of young guards in Damien Lewis and Phil Haynes.

The "surprises" Geno showed were a blend of moxy and athleticism complementing his ability to recognize coverage and find his "Go To" mismatch. Experience and devotion to taking care of his body are strong reasons to not expect regression...he's not a "developing" rookie nor a "flash" back up QB for a few games...he's the real deal.

Even if we only maintained the same support players from 2022 he could still project well for 2023...but we added greater depth in our RB room which narrows the drop off when Walker gets "nicked" and needs a few plays off. As a team we "toyed" with throwing to K-9 with some good "flash" results...Zack Charbonnet and Kenny McIntosh offer even more expansion of RB flat/curl...even slot routes with McIntosh.

Even more telling for feeding Geno more targets is the drafting of Jaxon Smith-Njigba as a WR3. His only "knock" is lacking elite speed to "threaten" a defenses structure (ie taking off the top). DK and Tyler have that "threat" covered...but JSN doesn't need elite speed to get "chunk" plays and YAC (Yards after catch) in bunches...due to precise routes and cuts into and out of his routes with excellent body control (hips) which defenders rely on as keys in "man" coverage...no wasted motion. Speed is great with precision... but lacking precision the speed doesn't shake your better NFL corners. JSN explodes into and out of his cuts creating space that makes him so "QB friendly". No team can assign their best man coverage corner on JSN while allowing DK and Tyler to run wild...LB/safeties/nickel corners offer a consistent mismatch for Geno and JSN to explore.

Smith-Njiba is coming into an offensive scheme that was ranked ninth in the NFL for points scored per game (23.9) and will be learning off Pro Bowl receivers in D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Go Geno...Go Hawks

[RiverDog]

I honestly have no idea how Geno will play this season as there were two distinct parts to his performance last year. If he plays like he did in the first nine games, then the sky's the limit. But if he plays like he did in the last nine games, we'll have a top 10 draft pick in 2024.

You can look at Geno's performance from several different POV's. Did he sense in the last nine games that his running game, with Penny out for the season, was suspect and that he had to do more to carry his team, hence he took more chances? Or, did defenses get a book on him over the course of the first 9 games, learned of his tendencies, and made adjustments to take away what he did best?

[Aseahawkfan]

I have no idea what Geno will do. Play Pete-ball making sure to be careful with the ball. If our defense can keep leads and the run game can grind yards and clock so winning the game isn't on Geno, then I think we can get to 10 to 12 wins. If either of those is like last year, it will be another 7 to 9 win season.

[NorthHawk]

Geno won’t be playing Peteball because we dumped that Offense last year.
He has been given a good chance at improving from last year with the addition of talented players and with the OTs a year older and experienced. So in theory he should do better. But if he throws the league average of INTs when he makes mistakes it could become a regression in productivity.
It’s going to be fun to see how he does along with the rest of the team.

[tarlhawk]

No one "knows" what Geno will do in 2023...or why "2nd half" Geno is characterized by Riv and many others as if all the final games of the season can be lumped together as indicative of Gino's potential failures...even as an expected "4 win" team we weren't blown out by each of the final 9 games of the season.

Lumping statistics to create contrasts are not a true indication of a regression. The NFL on the whole is not so simplistic to have stats be indicative of anything as dynamic as the game. In college anyone who takes a course in statistics is made aware that the same statistics used as a "source" can be "shaped" to represent even contrary ideas of a given point. The necessary contrast is lumping several games that include a few that far exceeded the "mean" with a grouping of games that include a few that finished well below the average. Did our rookies tire? Did Geno finally get "attention" from opponents film study? Did Shane Waldon's play book not have enough variance to keep opponents from "identifying" trends? Was Geno flustered as the games became more meaningful? Did injuries play a role? The speculation is almost endless...did the teams we faced later in the season have better secondaries than our earlier teams fielded?

As a skilled QB who performs well in a spread type offense ...Geno can have high expectations of playing at a high level barring injury! We had no "key" personnel losses and instead gained some additional weapons that can change the dynamics of our offense...so its not a "stretch" to imagine an even stronger offensive performance. Go Hawks

[RiverDog]

Lumping statistics to create contrasts are not a true indication of a regression.

I'm not just using statistics to separate the good Geno from the bad Geno. In the 2nd half of the season, he was taking a lot more chances and got away with some really bad decisions that weren't reflected in the stats. I think it was North Hawk who showed a graphic that Geno was the beneficiary of more dropped interceptions than any QB in the league, and most of those, at least from my recollection, were in the 2nd half of the season.

Plus, we were a losing team in those last 9 games, going 3-6 down the stretch, with two of those 3 wins being over the 5-12 Rams and the other against the Jets, who were in the middle of a 6 game losing streak and ended up losing 8 of their last 10. Our team's performance in those last 9 games is a reflection on Geno's play as much as our winning in the first half was.

Geno's 2nd half of the 2022 season regression was real, and not something that was made up by some stats monkey.

[tarlhawk]

First half Geno 5 games without a pick 4 picks total compared to 2nd half Geno only 3 games without a pick 8 picks total so yes he doubled his picks 2nd half for whatever reasons. The difference in passing stats first half Geno 207/283 73% with 15 TD ...Top 3: DK (4 TD)/Tyler (4)/Dissly (3) while 2nd half Geno was 217/324 67% with 17 TD ...Top 3 Tyler (5 TD)/DK (4)/Fant (3).

Production wise Geno was consistent keeping us close in games with TD and distribution of TD both season halfs...Geno is not so much a tale of "two" Geno's but all teams play sharper 2nd half as playoffs are approached. If Defense can execute more 3 and outs then Geno has even more weapons to work with in making a difference in not wasting Time of Possession and keeping those chains moving...Go Hawks

[Aseahawkfan]

Geno won’t be playing Peteball because we dumped that Offense last year.
He has been given a good chance at improving from last year with the addition of talented players and with the OTs a year older and experienced. So in theory he should do better. But if he throws the league average of INTs when he makes mistakes it could become a regression in productivity.
It’s going to be fun to see how he does along with the rest of the team.

I don't think we dropped Pete-ball. Pete-ball is mainly about keeping turnovers down. Geno will be expected to run a low turnover offense Pete expects every year. As long as the turnovers stay down, then Pete opens up for his OCs. The current OC has uses some TEs and such more. Not sure if that is because of the QB or his design. For all I know Russ was weak in certain areas using TEs because most TEs run short to medium routes and Russ was often looking for the long ball.

[jshawaii22]

Geno's downhill slide in the second half... I believe is the issue of the offensive line breaking down, both from injuries and the rookies running into the wall.
If the offseason that rookies don't get last year allowed them to build-up and prepare for a 17 game year, I think we'll be OK. Hopefully the new center, whomever that is, can perform. It's the biggest hole on the offense. We could of had any of the top centers in the 2nd round of the draft... just sayin'.

[RiverDog]

First half Geno 5 games without a pick 4 picks total compared to 2nd half Geno only 3 games without a pick 8 picks total so yes he doubled his picks 2nd half for whatever reasons. The difference in passing stats first half Geno 207/283 73% with 15 TD ...Top 3: DK (4 TD)/Tyler (4)/Dissly (3) while 2nd half Geno was 217/324 67% with 17 TD ...Top 3 Tyler (5 TD)/DK (4)/Fant (3).

Production wise Geno was consistent keeping us close in games with TD and distribution of TD both season halfs...Geno is not so much a tale of "two" Geno's but all teams play sharper 2nd half as playoffs are approached. If Defense can execute more 3 and outs then Geno has even more weapons to work with in making a difference in not wasting Time of Possession and keeping those chains moving...Go Hawks

Wasn't it you that said Lumping statistics to create contrasts are not a true indication of a regression? Now, you're lumping statistics to show that there wasn't a regression.

All teams do not play sharper in the 2nd half of the season. For whatever reason, in many cases injuries, some teams will wax and wane throughout the season. The 2022 Jets are a prime example of a team that was not sharper in the 2nd half of the year.

It remains to be seen how much of a difference Geno's new weapons will make. You can't count on a receiver, or any player for that matter, to step right in and start contributing immediately. We still have issues on the interior OL that need to be addressed that can have a significant effect on the quarterback's performance. Same goes for the defense.

You're taking the optimistic POV, and I can appreciate that. If you haven't noticed by now, I tend to look at things from a slightly pessimistic perspective. Over the decades of watching Seahawk football, I've gotten tired of getting all jacked up by listening to all the talking heads, the beat reporters in training camp, the college highlight reels, and so on, only to suffer a major letdown when my team does a belly flop. If we lose, it's not such a big deal as it's what I expected. But if we win, then I'm more exited as it's like having a surprise birthday party.

[RiverDog]

Geno's downhill slide in the second half... I believe is the issue of the offensive line breaking down, both from injuries and the rookies running into the wall.
If the offseason that rookies don't get last year allowed them to build-up and prepare for a 17 game year, I think we'll be OK. Hopefully the new center, whomever that is, can perform. It's the biggest hole on the offense. We could of had any of the top centers in the 2nd round of the draft... just sayin'.

That's a fair point. Abe Lucas, for example, started out the season not allowing a sack for a very long time, then as the games wore on, started having problems. Was it the 17 game schedule? Or was it defenses getting a book on them, understanding their weaknesses and vulnerabilities?

And you're preaching to the choir when it comes to the centers we could have had in the 2nd round. It was just two years ago that we did the same damn thing, bypassed a very good center, Creed Humphrey, for a skill position player in Dee Eskridge. Wasted opportunity.

[NorthHawk]

I don't think we dropped Pete-ball. Pete-ball is mainly about keeping turnovers down. Geno will be expected to run a low turnover offense Pete expects every year. As long as the turnovers stay down, then Pete opens up for his OCs. The current OC has uses some TEs and such more. Not sure if that is because of the QB or his design. For all I know Russ was weak in certain areas using TEs because most TEs run short to medium routes and Russ was often looking for the long ball.

Peteball is a simple Offense where you pound the rock between the Tackles then throw - or vice versa, keeping the game close to try to win at the end. No imagination required.
We didn't do that much at all last year with the addition of pre snap motion and the horizontal run game along with runs to the edges. The pass patterns were designed to take advantage of that motion and put receivers in the places the defenders vacated because of the motion.
All Offenses try to limit turnovers with the possible exception of Air Coryell of the past.

[NorthHawk]

Geno's downhill slide in the second half... I believe is the issue of the offensive line breaking down, both from injuries and the rookies running into the wall.
If the offseason that rookies don't get last year allowed them to build-up and prepare for a 17 game year, I think we'll be OK. Hopefully the new center, whomever that is, can perform. It's the biggest hole on the offense. We could of had any of the top centers in the 2nd round of the draft... just sayin'.

I think it had a minor part in Geno's productivity decline, and another part was opposing defenses figuring out what our Offense was doing or trying to do along with its situational tendencies.
But that doesn't mean his productivity was because of other issues. He benefited from the 2nd most turnover worthy plays in the NFL that didn't result in an INT. Had his passes been intercepted at the league average he would have had about 7 more INTs than he actually did and our season would probably have looked a lot different. Maybe it would have been a bunch of comeback wins for Geno, or maybe it would have been 2 or 3 extra losses. If the good luck from last year turns into bad luck this year, we could do much worse from a win perspective.
But it's why we watch the games. Nobody knows what will happen.

[tarlhawk]

Wasn't it you that said Lumping statistics to create contrasts are not a true indication of a regression? Now, you're lumping statistics to show that there wasn't a regression.

You're taking the optimistic POV, and I can appreciate that. If you haven't noticed by now, I tend to look at things from a slightly pessimistic perspective. Over the decades of watching Seahawk football, I've gotten tired of getting all jacked up by listening to all the talking heads, the beat reporters in training camp, the college highlight reels, and so on, only to suffer a major letdown when my team does a belly flop. If we lose, it's not such a big deal as it's what I expected. But if we win, then I'm more exited as it's like having a surprise birthday party.

You quoted me right on statistics but not quite the right idea...Statistics alone are not revealing but can be used in the right context to support an idea...just don't count on a use of statistics alone without the context. To be fair I carry a favorable outlook on the Seahawks latest developments but my fan rationale is game to game excitement and since 2010 I've enjoyed our teams energy level on the field and watching many cardiac close games. I understand your own perspective of lowered expectations for a higher feeling of euphoria when the team "surprises" you with better in game results. If I'm going to invest time in entertainment I like to become fully engaged where as if I had negative preconceptions before watching I would feel more detached from any benefits. Go Hawks

[RiverDog]

Wasn't it you that said Lumping statistics to create contrasts are not a true indication of a regression? Now, you're lumping statistics to show that there wasn't a regression.

You're taking the optimistic POV, and I can appreciate that. If you haven't noticed by now, I tend to look at things from a slightly pessimistic perspective. Over the decades of watching Seahawk football, I've gotten tired of getting all jacked up by listening to all the talking heads, the beat reporters in training camp, the college highlight reels, and so on, only to suffer a major letdown when my team does a belly flop. If we lose, it's not such a big deal as it's what I expected. But if we win, then I'm more exited as it's like having a surprise birthday party.

You quoted me right on statistics but not quite the right idea...Statistics alone are not revealing but can be used in the right context to support an idea...just don't count on a use of statistics alone without the context.

Fair enough. I remember taking statistics class a long time ago in college. The prof gave us two completely opposite arguments about the same topic. Argument 1 was that the highways were getting more dangerous, and he showed us a stat where the total highway deaths had steadily increased over a period of years. Argument 2 was that the highways were getting safer, and produced a stat showing that the death rate per mile driven had decreased over the same period. You can make almost any reasonable argument and find a stat to support it, a fact that politicians have taken advantage of for centuries.

To be fair I carry a favorable outlook on the Seahawks latest developments but my fan rationale is game to game excitement and since 2010 I've enjoyed our teams energy level on the field and watching many cardiac close games. I understand your own perspective of lowered expectations for a higher feeling of euphoria when the team "surprises" you with better in game results. If I'm going to invest time in entertainment I like to become fully engaged where as if I had negative preconceptions before watching I would feel more detached from any benefits. Go Hawks

One of the problems with being overly optimistic...and I'm not necessarily saying that you are...is that it can lead to a significant bias. Love is blind, and it can cause us to overlook or rationalize problems that are readily apparent to the objective observer.

[c_hawkbob]

One of the problems with being overly optimistic...and I'm not necessarily saying that you are...is that it can lead to a significant bias. Love is blind, and it can cause us to overlook or rationalize problems that are readily apparent to the objective observer.

The exact same thing can be said of being overly pessimistic. The operative differentiator is "overly", not optimistic.

[RiverDog]

One of the problems with being overly optimistic...and I'm not necessarily saying that you are...is that it can lead to a significant bias. Love is blind, and it can cause us to overlook or rationalize problems that are readily apparent to the objective observer.

The exact same thing can be said of being overly pessimistic. The operative differentiator is "overly", not optimistic.

Absolutely true. There's definitely a balance.

[obiken]

River I disagree, I just think its more likely that Geno had a bubble year last year and returns to normal. I hope I am wrong, but we have seen this before pal.

[tarlhawk]

Geno doesn't have to be a top 5 QB...he just needs to be a quality starter who can execute Shane Waldrons playbook. Our offense as a whole can be a top 5 offense...that's the value of having Geno. His support has gotten even better in the RB and WR rooms. We didn't draft RBs to replace Walker III...we added quality RBs to insure the BALANCE provided from the RB position sees little to no drop off when Walker III isn't lined up beside Geno...Charbonnet and McIntosh even add quality threats in the passing game.
The O-line interior is strengthened if not improved with a vet youth/rookie mix allowing Andy Dickerson to field the best 5 man line for 2023 with Damien Lewis and Phil Haynes fighting for extensions to play in 2024 going forward. Our TE room allows our 12 personnel formations to be a continued threat...Dissly had 3 TD in the first 4 games in 2022 then suffered an injury knocking him out...but not resulting in surgery...while Noah Fant was a threat down the stretch. Our 13 personnel has been the "spear" of our offense...and Jaxon Smith-Njigba creates dynamic juice whether passing ...or running (his lower body is built like a LB/Pass Rushing edge) as another 200 lb WR with DK to either lure safeties away from a run or with solid run blocking that can seal off an attacking LB/SS. Geno should thrive whether our offense is using either 12 or 13 personnel. Go Geno Go Hawks

[RiverDog]

Geno doesn't have to be a top 5 QB...he just needs to be a quality starter who can execute Shane Waldrons playbook. Our offense as a whole can be a top 5 offense...that's the value of having Geno. His support has gotten even better in the RB and WR rooms. We didn't draft RBs to replace Walker III...we added quality RBs to insure the BALANCE provided from the RB position sees little to no drop off when Walker III isn't lined up beside Geno...Charbonnet and McIntosh even add quality threats in the passing game.

I think that the same thing can be said about a lot of teams, that if their QB plays 'underneath his shoulder pads' and doesn't try to play beyond his capability, that the team can succeed. Certainly, it can be said about the 49'ers, where it doesn't seem like it matters who's hurling the rock.

But it's going to take more than just a game manager type quarterback to win games for our Hawks. The defense needs to be stout enough so that Geno doesn't feel the pressure to score and keep up with the opponent.

The O-line interior is strengthened if not improved with a vet youth/rookie mix allowing Andy Dickerson to field the best 5 man line for 2023 with Damien Lewis and Phil Haynes fighting for extensions to play in 2024 going forward. Our TE room allows our 12 personnel formations to be a continued threat...Dissly had 3 TD in the first 4 games in 2022 then suffered an injury knocking him out...but not resulting in surgery...while Noah Fant was a threat down the stretch. Our 13 personnel has been the "spear" of our offense...and Jaxon Smith-Njigba creates dynamic juice whether passing ...or running (his lower body is built like a LB/Pass Rushing edge) as another 200 lb WR with DK to either lure safeties away from a run or with solid run blocking that can seal off an attacking LB/SS. Geno should thrive whether our offense is using either 12 or 13 personnel. Go Geno Go Hawks

Now there's an optimist! Lewis is a decent guard, but Phil Haynes did not perform well in 2022, so he's going to have to come to the party if we are to count on his presence to improve our OL. And, of course, we have a huge unknown at the center position. Our offensive line, specifically our interior OL, is the weak link of our team, at least on paper.

Like you, I would expect to see a lot of 12 personnel groupings next fall. Our tackles, while performing above average for rookies, are still going to need some support in passing situations, and having what is essentially a 3rd tackle in Will Dissly will help take some pressure off of them. Fant is more one dimensional, is not nearly as good of a blocker as Dissly as he's ranked near the bottom of the league in both run and pass blocking. This will be one of those 'fork in the road' seasons for Colby Parkinson. After turning in two underwhelming performances in 2020 and 2021, he had a very good season last year. This is the final year of his rookie contract, so his play will determine whether we cut bait or fish with him.

[RiverDog]

River I disagree, I just think its more likely that Geno had a bubble year last year and returns to normal. I hope I am wrong, but we have seen this before pal.

Yeah, that's one of the concerns about Geno, especially in light of his 2nd half of the season backslide and his adjusted turnover rate, that is, being the beneficiary of dropped interceptions. But if our defense can improve to the point where Geno's not being expected to put up 4 TD's a game and keeps us in the contest, he has the proven ability to win games. We don't need a gunslinging quarterback, we need someone that's going to play within the limits of the offense. I'm not worried about Geno as much as I am our offensive line.

In any event, it's going to be a fun season, and I'm looking forward to it.

[NorthHawk]

It's going to be fun to see how the team progresses.
Geno should have a good year with the Offense now settled and more talent added, but maybe last year was a bubble year.
We'll find out at the season unfolds.

[RiverDog]

It's going to be fun to see how the team progresses.
Geno should have a good year with the Offense now settled and more talent added, but maybe last year was a bubble year.
We'll find out at the season unfolds.

Geno is in a better position to succeed this year than he was last year at this time. He knows going into training camp that he's the undisputed starting quarterback and will be getting the lion's share of reps with the first unit. He's also had more time to develop a rapport with his receivers, and they with him.

As in every season, one of the big unknowns is how well our opposition has improved or adjusted. The Rams were an epic face plant last year, and the Cards look to be a dysfunctional lot with a franchise QB that may not be ready for the start of the season. The Niners are looking pretty good as Brock Purdy looks like he'll be ready for training camp.

Despite my perceived pessimism, I'm very anxious to see how this team turns out.

[tarlhawk]

I think that the same thing can be said about a lot of teams, that if their QB plays 'underneath his shoulder pads' and doesn't try to play beyond his capability, that the team can succeed. Certainly, it can be said about the 49'ers, where it doesn't seem like it matters who's hurling the rock.

But it's going to take more than just a game manager type quarterback to win games for our Hawks. The defense needs to be stout enough so that Geno doesn't feel the pressure to score and keep up with the opponent.

I know you didn't compare Geno and Purdy as "equals"...you were referencing the dangers of a creative Kyle Shanahan. Geno is hardly confused as a "game manager" except in the context he has earned Pete's trust. High accuracy coupled with many deep strikes is taking full advantage of an "uncorked" offense that is balanced yet full of daggers if slept on. Go Hawks

[RiverDog]

I think that the same thing can be said about a lot of teams, that if their QB plays 'underneath his shoulder pads' and doesn't try to play beyond his capability, that the team can succeed. Certainly, it can be said about the 49'ers, where it doesn't seem like it matters who's hurling the rock.

But it's going to take more than just a game manager type quarterback to win games for our Hawks. The defense needs to be stout enough so that Geno doesn't feel the pressure to score and keep up with the opponent.

I know you didn't compare Geno and Purdy as "equals"...you were referencing the dangers of a creative Kyle Shanahan. Geno is hardly confused as a "game manager" except in the context he has earned Pete's trust. High accuracy coupled with many deep strikes is taking full advantage of an "uncorked" offense that is balanced yet full of daggers if slept on. Go Hawks

I didn't compare Geno and Purdy at all, as equals or otherwise. I was simply noting that it appears that Purdy will be ready to go by training camp, which is one of the biggest offseason question marks in the league. If he plays in the preseason, the Niners will obviously be the clear favorite to win the division and one of the favorites to go to the SB.

[tarlhawk]

If he plays in the preseason, the Niners will obviously be the clear favorite to win the division and one of the favorites to go to the SB.

The 49ers will definitely be the measuring stick for our true return to respect in the NFL. Many outsiders still darken the Seahawks chances by saying Geno doesn't inspire confidence in being able to "repeat". I didn't give Geno a ringing vote of confidence myself last year for I was actually hoping Drew Lock was going to take the helm. I knew our offense had the core of a top ten offense to support whoever won...but Geno was able to gather the clubhouse together at a time when we were being viewed as real underdogs and showed true leadership by example. I think Geno is an example of a talented QB who shows that College laurels don't translate to NFL success without maturity and an offensive structure that features their strengths. The "marriage" of a mature Geno and the spread offense installed by Shane Waldron with even more play makers coupled with an improving O-Line (well coached by Andy Dickerson) offers much hope. I also think Drew is more than capable in the "next man up" role which allowed us to have back to back strong drafts without "reaching" for that elusive QBOTF. Go Geno Go Hawks

[obiken]

In any event, it's going to be a fun season, and I'm looking forward to it.

I agree! IF the Niners dont get a QB we could win this division. Don't go to sleep on the Rams, they still have a lot of weapons and a more motivated coach.

[RiverDog]

If he plays in the preseason, the Niners will obviously be the clear favorite to win the division and one of the favorites to go to the SB.

The 49ers will definitely be the measuring stick for our true return to respect in the NFL. Many outsiders still darken the Seahawks chances by saying Geno doesn't inspire confidence in being able to "repeat". I didn't give Geno a ringing vote of confidence myself last year for I was actually hoping Drew Lock was going to take the helm. I knew our offense had the core of a top ten offense to support whoever won...but Geno was able to gather the clubhouse together at a time when we were being viewed as real underdogs and showed true leadership by example. I think Geno is an example of a talented QB who shows that College laurels don't translate to NFL success without maturity and an offensive structure that features their strengths. The "marriage" of a mature Geno and the spread offense installed by Shane Waldron with even more play makers coupled with an improving O-Line (well coached by Andy Dickerson) offers much hope. I also think Drew is more than capable in the "next man up" role which allowed us to have back to back strong drafts without "reaching" for that elusive QBOTF. Go Geno Go Hawks

Agree about everything you said except for Drew Lock. He's a backup, and unless Geno gets injured, that's the role he'll be asked to fill. We brought him back because he was cheap and he knew the system. I do not think he is a capable starter as he's done nothing to show us that he has that potential. IMO PC/JS didn't see their QBOTF in the 2023 draft, or if they did, he was too expensive, ie they didn't want to spend what it would have taken to trade up and draft one of the top 3. I don't think having Lock on the roster made any difference in their approach to the draft.

[NorthHawk]

They want to upgrade the QB position. They made that clear in last years run up to the draft and Lock isn't in their future if they can replace him with an equivalent at a lower cost or young QB on a first contract who they think is the future.
Shanahan has shown that he can produce on Offense with a mediocre or young QB. He's done it in the past multiple times and there's no reason to think he can't do it again with all of the talent around the QB and a QB friendly Offense.

[tarlhawk]

Well both of you (Riv and NH) have made your opinions known concerning Drew Lock...its kinda hard to counter with unproven speculation on my part. I see Lock as akin to being drafted in 2022...(in the form of a trade of course). Geno had similar college skills as Lock with both being labeled as "gunslingers" due to excellent arm talent. John Schneider knows the importance of not throwing a young guy into an immediate baptism under fire...so Drew is only getting sharper and more familiar with our offense...my opinion on that value.

[Aseahawkfan]

This will be Drew Lock's fifth year in the NFL. I do not recall many fifth year and going QBs suddenly becoming "the man." I don't expect much from Drew Lock at all. He had his chance and lost to Geno. John and Pete will bring in competition at QB probably in the next draft. Drew's time is drawing near to be gone.

[MackStrongIsMyHero]

Geno became the man after 8 seasons, but small sample size nonetheless.

I think the FO will let Lock test FA and gladly bring him back as backup if he doesn’t see anything worth leaving for. Even if Lock stays, there’s no reason a QB can’t be drafted. Not a bad situation to have a starter, a backup, and a rookie with no pressure to produce in his first season.

[tarlhawk]

He came in as a 21 yr old rookie whose scouting reports identified him as a gifted QB needing some sound structure and coaching to clean up some poor mechanics and specially unsound footwork ...who suffered from team chaos amid changes (a switching of his college offensive coordinators ...losing a man (whose schemes fit the strengths of Drew Locks arm talent) and struggled thru various receiving drops affecting his composure. Drew is 26 this year still young for having spent 5 yrs in the NFL with mixed results...as a point of reference Kenny Pickett with 1 yr of rookie experience is only a year younger than Drew. 2nd round or later drafted QB often get shuffled as back-ups depending on the team drafting them if they don't have immediate success...it's 1rst rounders often given 2nd chances. Naysayers abound ...identifying themselves as realists ...and back-ups like Geno are often doubted until given real opportunity...hence the definition of good luck as being when hard work meets with opportunity...such windows are narrow and limited in the NFL.

[NorthHawk]

Of course it’s possible that he blossoms but the odds are heavily stacked against him.
By our FOs actions we know they don’t think he’s the future otherwise they would have signed him immediately to a long term contract at a very team friendly price. But they took their time, told both QBs that they might take a QB at 5 and signed them both to short term contracts. The writing is pretty much on the wall.

But who knows what will happen this year.

[obiken]

Sorry Geno had a temperament problem, that is fixable. Drew has an accuracy and judgement problem that is not fixable. IMHO, I think they threw him in the package trade for RW just to get rid of him.

[tarlhawk]

Writing on the wall...hmmm. Both Geno and Drew had contracts due and we made big free agent signings this time around so what's realistic of signing Drew to an unproven long contract...and Geno to almost a one year "prove it again" deal? Just like Geno had to bide his time behind RW being strung along with one year contracts...Drew is also getting single year payouts.

It's smart business for John Schneider to hit all his free agency "targets" which allowed him to make full use of rare draft capital to get best Seahawky players available. These contracts show a reluctance of JS to engage in long QB contracts that bind his hands to getting scraps from late in free agency ...RW (and probably Jamal) " lessons learned". 3 year deals seem to be his standard of investment worthy contracts lately. I also think he's trying to help Pete get another shot in the SB hunt...sooner than later.

JS has made many "snippets" of info concerning his "view" of what goes into the making of a good QB and he likes his currently signed pair...without "tipping" his hand in both recent "drafts"(2022/2023). Pete even espoused the idea that if Drew was available in the 2022 draft...he would have been the first QB drafted. This fan expects big things out of Geno with an incentive driven contract intact. Drew is content to carry Geno's clip board but that one year deal shows some JS respect knowing he was scraping cap money to give Wags a proper return home...just saying

[Aseahawkfan]

Geno became the man after 8 seasons, but small sample size nonetheless.

I think the FO will let Lock test FA and gladly bring him back as backup if he doesn’t see anything worth leaving for. Even if Lock stays, there’s no reason a QB can’t be drafted. Not a bad situation to have a starter, a backup, and a rookie with no pressure to produce in his first season.

I don't personally consider Geno "The Man" yet. Better than expected and a good bridge QB, sure. "The Man" like Russell when he came in 2012? Not yet.

I feel like Pete would drop Geno in a heartbeat if John drafts "The Man" in the next year or two. But we'll see how Geno does this year with hopefully an improved defense.

You gotta be a playoff competitive QB until you're "The Man." Geno will hopefully get that chance next year again.

[NorthHawk]

Writing on the wall...hmmm. Both Geno and Drew had contracts due and we made big free agent signings this time around so what's realistic of signing Drew to an unproven long contract...and Geno to almost a one year "prove it again" deal? Just like Geno had to bide his time behind RW being strung along with one year contracts...Drew is also getting single year payouts.

It's smart business for John Schneider to hit all his free agency "targets" which allowed him to make full use of rare draft capital to get best Seahawky players available. These contracts show a reluctance of JS to engage in long QB contracts that bind his hands to getting scraps from late in free agency ...RW (and probably Jamal) " lessons learned". 3 year deals seem to be his standard of investment worthy contracts lately. I also think he's trying to help Pete get another shot in the SB hunt...sooner than later.

JS has made many "snippets" of info concerning his "view" of what goes into the making of a good QB and he likes his currently signed pair...without "tipping" his hand in both recent "drafts"(2022/2023). Pete even espoused the idea that if Drew was available in the 2022 draft...he would have been the first QB drafted. This fan expects big things out of Geno with an incentive driven contract intact. Drew is content to carry Geno's clip board but that one year deal shows some JS respect knowing he was scraping cap money to give Wags a proper return home...just saying

Oh, we're really counting on Lock to be the longer term answer? Let's risk losing him by letting him dangle in FA until mid march then only sign him to a one year team friendly deal and call it a big FA signing. Riiiiight.
It also doesn't sound like someone they are counting on for anything more than a stop gap backup. A 4 year contract would have stated something else, but a late 1 year contract then telling both QBs that they want to draft a QB early screams backup status and a short stay here if they can find a QB to replace him. The writing is clearly spelled out on the wall for those who want to read it.

As far as Pete talking about Lock being the top QB in the 2022 class if he was in it? He was referring to how poor that draft class was, not how good Lock is and it is probably true because 2022 was an almost historically bad QB class.

Geno got a 3 year deal with some easy outs for little money (relative to the QB salaries) and he was told they wanted to draft a QB early as well.
Those actions of our FO are telling the NFL world that they want a young QB and aren't satisfied or don't trust long term who we have at the moment either starting or as a backup.

[MackStrongIsMyHero]

I don't personally consider Geno "The Man" yet. Better than expected and a good bridge QB, sure. "The Man" like Russell when he came in 2012? Not yet.

I feel like Pete would drop Geno in a heartbeat if John drafts "The Man" in the next year or two. But we'll see how Geno does this year with hopefully an improved defense.

You gotta be a playoff competitive QB until you're "The Man." Geno will hopefully get that chance next year again.

Won't they not know he's "The Man" until he's "The Man"? Geno became "The Man" for Seattle after last season; FO see him that way until they draft or sign someone who proves otherwise or he completely runs off the rails.

Like I said with small sample size, It's not lost on me that it's the exception not the rule for a guy like Geno and, similarly, a guy like Lock to turn the corner after spot starting duty and backup duty.

[Aseahawkfan]

Won't they not know he's "The Man" until he's "The Man"? Geno became "The Man" for Seattle after last season; FO see him that way until they draft or sign someone who proves otherwise or he completely runs off the rails.

Like I said with small sample size, It's not lost on me that it's the exception not the rule for a guy like Geno and, similarly, a guy like Lock to turn the corner after spot starting duty and backup duty.

I look at Geno more like I see a Rich Gannon or Brad Johnson. He can win if the team around him is really great.

Starting QB and "The Man" have a different meaning to me. I don't think Geno inspires much fear in other teams or anyone believes he's going to do crazy amazing things on the field to win tight games going to the Super Bowl. If all you mean by "The Man" is a starting QB who plays as competent game manager, then he's "The Man." The price of a starting QB has gone way, way up, which is why we have to pay what we have to pay for someone who is about as good as Kirk Cousins, who also looks way overpaid and replaceable to me.

I don't personally feel much attachment to Geno. He doesn't excite me. I don't go into next season thinking, "Geno's going to ball out and carry us to a Super Bowl." When I go into next season my thinking is, "I hope he can maintain a decent level of play and with an improved defense show some ability to compete in the playoffs and maybe vie for HFA in this weak NFC. I sure hope we can find our next great starting QB in the next draft because if Geno don't make some progress this year, watching him play is going to get real tiresome." That's how I see Geno.

I haven't warmed up to Geno. I feel about him about like Riverdog feels about Pete Carroll at this point in Carroll's career. I'm glad we have a competent QB who is outperforming expectations, but he isn't very exciting and I don't think he's on the same level as a Mahomes, Allen, or the other great current QBs.