PFF Rankings

[RiverDog]

I've signed up for access to PFF so I thought I'd start sharing some interesting information about some of their analysis, so occasionally, I'll post some information in this thread.

Today's topic is PFF's 2023 quarterback rankings. Geno is ranked #15 out of 32 starting quarterbacks. Here's what they had to say about him:

15. GENO SMITH, SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Another difficult quarterback to rank, Smith improbably ranked as a top-five quarterback for much of last season before the wheels fell off a little late in the year. Was that the inevitable regression back to the mean, or was it a product of his pass protection suffering a similar late-season collapse? Smith had flashed before in his NFL career, but we hadn’t seen the heights he hit last season. He earned three single-game PFF grades north of 90.0 and posted a 5.4% big-time throw rate.

Here's the complete rankings minus the commentary:

1. PATRICK MAHOMES, KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 2. JOSH ALLEN, BUFFALO BILLS 3. JOE BURROW, CINCINNATI BENGALS 4. JUSTIN HERBERT, LOS ANGELES CHARGERS 5. AARON RODGERS, NEW YORK JETS 6. LAMAR JACKSON, BALTIMORE RAVENS 7. JALEN HURTS, PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
8. TREVOR LAWRENCE, JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 9. KIRK COUSINS, MINNESOTA VIKINGS 10. DAK PRESCOTT, DALLAS COWBOYS 11. TUA TAGOVAILOA, MIAMI DOLPHINS 12. MATTHEW STAFFORD, LOS ANGELES RAMS 13. DESHAUN WATSON, CLEVELAND BROWNS 14. DEREK CARR, NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 15. GENO SMITH, SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 16. JARED GOFF, DETROIT LIONS 17. DANIEL JONES, NEW YORK GIANTS 18. JUSTIN FIELDS, CHICAGO BEARS 19. RYAN TANNEHILL, TENNESSEE TITANS 20. RUSSELL WILSON, DENVER BRONCOS 21. MAC JONES, NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 22. KENNY PICKETT, PITTSBURGH STEELERS 23. BROCK PURDY, SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 24. JIMMY GAROPPOLO, LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
25. BRYCE YOUNG, CAROLINA PANTHERS 26. JORDAN LOVE, GREEN BAY PACKERS 27. SAM HOWELL, WASHINGTON COMMANDERS 28. BAKER MAYFIELD, TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 29. COLT MCCOY, ARIZONA CARDINALS 30. C.J. STROUD, HOUSTON TEXANS 31. DESMOND RIDDER, ATLANTA FALCONS 32. ANTHONY RICHARDSON, INDIANAPOLIS COLTS.

Obviously, this ranking is almost all subjective and not done by any kind of statistical or performance analysis as it's impossible to rank the rookie quarterbacks like Young, Stroud, and Richardson, and it's very difficult to rank quarterbacks with new teams, like Rodgers, Carr, and Garoppolo. But if we just take a look at returning starters, there's a couple of observations I'd like to make:

Russell Wilson, ranked at #20, gets no respect at all. The only returning full time starter from their 2022 teams that ranked below him are Mac Jones and Kenny Pickett. I suppose that given his 2022 performance that he deserves it, but I would have thought that they would have anticipated an improvement given that he's now being coached by Sean Payton.

I'd probably have ranked Geno a tad bit higher, above Derek Carr, Deshaun Watson, and Dak Prescott, who led the league in interceptions.

Aaron Rodgers, in my opinion, is ranked way ahead of where he should be. Jared Goff at #16 is ranked too low, should be top 10.

Comments?

[jshawaii22]

If they were only looking at last year, then Geno's ranking seems about right. I think the one QB that might be very low is Brock Purdy. He looked really good until he got hurt in the NFL championship game. Aaron Rodgers actually had a good year, but by midway he just went south and didn't care any more. Hard to rate that type of personality issue as a QB. If the media perception of his short time with the J-E-T-S is any indication, he might be the #6.
Since they seem to have taken the crystal ball out for this ranking, who knows at this point. They obviously don't think Geno or the Seahawks will show much improvement. We can all hope they're wrong!

[RiverDog]

If they were only looking at last year, then Geno's ranking seems about right. I think the one QB that might be very low is Brock Purdy. He looked really good until he got hurt in the NFL championship game. Aaron Rodgers actually had a good year, but by midway he just went south and didn't care any more. Hard to rate that type of personality issue as a QB. If the media perception of his short time with the J-E-T-S is any indication, he might be the #6.
Since they seem to have taken the crystal ball out for this ranking, who knows at this point. They obviously don't think Geno or the Seahawks will show much improvement. We can all hope they're wrong!

Agreed about Purdy, although he is coming off a serious injury which no doubt affected their ranking. I also think that Hebert might be a little over rated. He's not the running threat that Mahomes, Allen, Hurts, et al and he hasn't done anything noteworthy in the playoffs.

[tarlhawk]

I've already made known my thoughts on Geno in other posts so I see reasons to feel confident Geno can be even better in 2023. Things that normally cause a regression in a QB are many : Change in Offensive Coordinators/loss of significant play makers who played key roles/loss or injury of key O-line/change in coach/personal injury suffered with lasting results/outside the NFL events that have direct bearing on the QB/QB becomes satisfied and no longer has ambition or drive. None of these concerns have appeared in Geno's preparation for this year.

In camp Pete noted Geno did some upper body work and looked physically better. His team mates in camp have echoed the sentiment that Geno has looked sharp and confident...and most importantly...happy with his contract. No signs of discord as the season approaches with more offensive improvements going forward. Our O-line continues to add youth and promise to building a solid "home grown" line. Evan Brown will compete at center to be that "outsider" who wins a starting spot. The additions of Zach Charbonnet, Kenny McIntosh and Jaxon Smith Njigba with rejuvenated early outlooks on Dee Eskridge and Dareke Young all point to the seeds are there to have an even more explosive offense that is capable of early leads and sustained long drives. This optimism is with our TE group not adding to their accomplishments from last year. Go Hawks

[NorthHawk]

Another difficult quarterback to rank, Smith improbably ranked as a top-five quarterback for much of last season before the wheels fell off a little late in the year. Was that the inevitable regression back to the mean, or was it a product of his pass protection suffering a similar late-season collapse

It's pretty much what I've been saying about Geno. I think it's a 50/50 chance that he's the better Geno all year because the Offense should add another dimension to its game.
He SHOULD do well. We'll see.

[RiverDog]

I've already made known my thoughts on Geno in other posts so I see reasons to feel confident Geno can be even better in 2023. Things that normally cause a regression in a QB are many : Change in Offensive Coordinators/loss of significant play makers who played key roles/loss or injury of key O-line/change in coach/personal injury suffered with lasting results/outside the NFL events that have direct bearing on the QB/QB becomes satisfied and no longer has ambition or drive. None of these concerns have appeared in Geno's preparation for this year.

In camp Pete noted Geno did some upper body work and looked physically better. His team mates in camp have echoed the sentiment that Geno has looked sharp and confident...and most importantly...happy with his contract. No signs of discord as the season approaches with more offensive improvements going forward. Our O-line continues to add youth and promise to building a solid "home grown" line. Evan Brown will compete at center to be that "outsider" who wins a starting spot. The additions of Zach Charbonnet, Kenny McIntosh and Jaxon Smith Njigba with rejuvenated early outlooks on Dee Eskridge and Dareke Young all point to the seeds are there to have an even more explosive offense that is capable of early leads and sustained long drives. This optimism is with our TE group not adding to their accomplishments from last year. Go Hawks

I appreciate your thoughts on Geno, but they don't exactly relate to the theme of the thread, which is a subjective ranking of the 32 starting quarterbacks.

So, with that in mind, do you think that a #15 overall rating for Geno is accurate? And what about the other quarterbacks around the league? Do you think that a #5 ranking for Aaron Rodgers is fair? And what do you make about the disrespect shown towards Russell Wilson?

[Oly]

I'd probably have ranked Geno a tad bit higher, above Derek Carr, Deshaun Watson, and Dak Prescott, who led the league in interceptions.

Aaron Rodgers, in my opinion, is ranked way ahead of where he should be. Jared Goff at #16 is ranked too low, should be top 10.

Comments?

Those are my thoughts on Geno exactly. We really had a bimodal distribution with Geno last year—either top 5 or middle of the pack—so right around #10 splits the difference. It's like the person who made the list recognized that fact but then threw out the great games when placing him. I think that his tackles hitting the rookie wall was a bigger factor in his decline than anything else, but I still have that nagging stat about dropped interceptions keeping me from being 100% on the Geno-as-top-tier train.

Also agreed on the others you mentioned, except Goff. I think Goff is a good game manager, but guys in the top 10 are ones that you think "we're winning because of this player" and I don't know that Goff puts teams on his back. I know his stats last year were good and I'll admit I haven't seen enough of his play with the Lions to judge him fairly, but until I do I'll trust my memory of his resume with the Rams. Rodgers is too high, but I'm not ready to drop him below #8 quite yet. That's where I see a gap in tiers, and I respect his play too much to drop him down a tier before I see a few games.

Other thoughts:
-Cousins is too high. I'd kick him and Prescott out of the top 10 and have Tua, Stafford, and Geno as 9-11 in some order.
-I'd have Russ a little higher (probably 16 or 17) because I think Payton will get more out of him, but I saw enough bad decision making even in his twilight with the Hawks to think he'll ever recover to top 10-12.
-The bottom 10 is really bad. It seems that the level of play you usually find in the bottom 5 has spread to more teams.
-I feel for Richardson, but I agree with this ranking. I would have been happy if the Hawks drafted him because I think he can be very good, but the Colts don't have weapons for him and I think he's going to be ruined in Indy. I live in Indiana so it will be interesting to see how long my friends take to sour on him.

[RiverDog]

I'd probably have ranked Geno a tad bit higher, above Derek Carr, Deshaun Watson, and Dak Prescott, who led the league in interceptions.

Aaron Rodgers, in my opinion, is ranked way ahead of where he should be. Jared Goff at #16 is ranked too low, should be top 10.

Comments?

Those are my thoughts on Geno exactly. We really had a bimodal distribution with Geno last year—either top 5 or middle of the pack—so right around #10 splits the difference. It's like the person who made the list recognized that fact but then threw out the great games when placing him. I think that his tackles hitting the rookie wall was a bigger factor in his decline than anything else, but I still have that nagging stat about dropped interceptions keeping me from being 100% on the Geno-as-top-tier train.

Also agreed on the others you mentioned, except Goff. I think Goff is a good game manager, but guys in the top 10 are ones that you think "we're winning because of this player" and I don't know that Goff puts teams on his back. I know his stats last year were good and I'll admit I haven't seen enough of his play with the Lions to judge him fairly, but until I do I'll trust my memory of his resume with the Rams. Rodgers is too high, but I'm not ready to drop him below #8 quite yet. That's where I see a gap in tiers, and I respect his play too much to drop him down a tier before I see a few games.

The Lions did amazingly well considering how horrid their defense was. Goff had a heck of a season, and not just statistically. One of the dramas to play out this season will be if he can repeat his success.

Rodgers is playing for a different team and is coming off his worst season in years, if not his entire career.

Other thoughts:
-Cousins is too high. I'd kick him and Prescott out of the top 10 and have Tua, Stafford, and Geno as 9-11 in some order.
-I'd have Russ a little higher (probably 16 or 17) because I think Payton will get more out of him, but I saw enough bad decision making even in his twilight with the Hawks to think he'll ever recover to top 10-12.
-The bottom 10 is really bad. It seems that the level of play you usually find in the bottom 5 has spread to more teams.
-I feel for Richardson, but I agree with this ranking. I would have been happy if the Hawks drafted him because I think he can be very good, but the Colts don't have weapons for him and I think he's going to be ruined in Indy. I live in Indiana so it will be interesting to see how long my friends take to sour on him.

I agree. Indy has been a quarterback's graveyard ever since Manning left.

[tarlhawk]

I appreciate your thoughts on Geno, but they don't exactly relate to the theme of the thread, which is a subjective ranking of the 32 starting quarterbacks.

So, with that in mind, do you think that a #15 overall rating for Geno is accurate? And what about the other quarterbacks around the league? Do you think that a #5 ranking for Aaron Rodgers is fair? And what do you make about the disrespect shown towards Russell Wilson?

I understand the subject matter of your post. This listing of QB without basis or standard for its compilation seems nothing more than a paid opinion of "ranking" at the QB position. Its fun to banter with our own views using the list as a structured source but as a fan I look for more context. What knowledge of the various teams led to the ranking? I know I invest a lot of time and effort just understanding the dynamics of our own offensive structure and how Geno can or should improve...so it would take exhaustive research to hone an accurate placement of each QB individually which is why lumping a QB in tiers is easier with the tiers based on current expectations of the QB to perform well in the system his team is scheming for.


The QBs that consistently draw MVP votes should be at the top...Aaron Rodgers/Patrick Mahomes/Josh Allen/Joe Burrows and Jalen Hurts come to mind. Next I would lump those whose teams have made changes expected to boost their QBs impact. Tua Tagovailoa/Russell Wilson/Lamar Jackson/DeShaun Watson and of course Geno Smith.


Finally the rest would be highlighted by Justin Hebert/Derek Carr/Zak Prescott/Kirk Cousins and Justin Fields. These QBs and their respected teams should be in the hunt to represent the best of the NFL in 2023. Rookies and injured QB (Bryce Young/CJ Stroud/Matthew Stafford/Brock Purdy) too early to "lump" anywhere meaningfully. I see Jared Goff and Daniel Jones as rogues being a bit harder to place. Go Hawks

[NorthHawk]

As said above, these rankings are subjective, and outside of Mahomes, it's quite possible to see a number of QBs ranked differently. Some people I hear and read suggest that Lamar Jackson should be around the 3 or 4 range and some will think Josh Allen should be much lower because of his turnover rate. These ranking will look much different in December than today. That much is pretty a given.
My list would be:
Mahomes
Burrow
Rodgers
Allen
Jackson
Hurts

But in the end it's just another opinion.

[TriCitySam]

https://www.theplayerstribune.com/posts ... e-seahawks

[RiverDog]

As said above, these rankings are subjective, and outside of Mahomes, it's quite possible to see a number of QBs ranked differently. Some people I hear and read suggest that Lamar Jackson should be around the 3 or 4 range and some will think Josh Allen should be much lower because of his turnover rate. These ranking will look much different in December than today. That much is pretty a given.
My list would be:
Mahomes
Burrow
Rodgers
Allen
Jackson
Hurts

But in the end it's just another opinion.

It is completely subjective and highly opinionated. It's a 'just for fun' exercise to keep us entertained during the offseason.

I do have to admit to a personal dislike for Aaron Rodgers and that there's the potential for a bias in my opinion. Nevertheless, I keep looking at his performance from last season and the fact that he'll be having to play in a new system with completely different teammates and can't justify ranking him as high as you have him.

I also don't get the love for Jackson. In my book, he's down a peg or two from Mahomes, Allen, and Burrow. He certainly doesn't have much of a playoff record. IMO he's 2nd tier.

[MackStrongIsMyHero]

I also don't get the love for Jackson. In my book, he's down a peg or two from Mahomes, Allen, and Burrow. He certainly doesn't have much of a playoff record. IMO he's 2nd tier.

Seconded. I don't care about his athleticism (no one has said anything about it, but that seems to be the mainstream draw to him), Jackson doesn't belong in the conversation with top guys. I'd take Geno over him any day.

[RiverDog]

I also don't get the love for Jackson. In my book, he's down a peg or two from Mahomes, Allen, and Burrow. He certainly doesn't have much of a playoff record. IMO he's 2nd tier.

Seconded. I don't care about his athleticism (no one has said anything about it, but that seems to be the mainstream draw to him), Jackson doesn't belong in the conversation with top guys. I'd take Geno over him any day.

Especially considering that Jackson made such a stink about his contract and requested a trade. As many negative things as I've said about Geno, I really liked the way he approached his contract negotiations, seemed to be thinking more about the team than himself.

[NorthHawk]

I think he's underrated a little as a passer. With the new OC, we will see a different style of play from them so it will show if he is in fact a good QB and not just a huge threat in the run game.

[RiverDog]

I think he's underrated a little as a passer. With the new OC, we will see a different style of play from them so it will show if he is in fact a good QB and not just a huge threat in the run game.

Jackson reminds me too much of Michael Vick, a primarily running quarterback whose career started out with a bang and ended on a whimper.

[obiken]

[quote="RiverDog"] Yeah Wilson will be way better this year, I am not hoping for it but I think its a reality.

[obiken]

Yeah River, Wilson will be way better this year, I am not hoping for it but I think its a reality.

[RiverDog]

Yeah River, Wilson will be way better this year, I am not hoping for it but I think its a reality.

"Way" better might not happen, but it's inevitable that the Broncos will fare better this season than last. They have a solid, top 10 defense. Even a marginal improvement on offense should be enough to get them into the playoffs.

Since we don't have any draft picks at stake this season, it won't be as captivating as it was last year, but how Russell performs under Payton will be one of those interesting dramas to watch.

[tarlhawk]

Since we don't have any draft picks at stake this season,

We traded down in the 3rd round in this years 2023 draft with Denver giving them our 3rd rd pick while getting their 4th rd pick ...AND a 2024 3rd Round pick as well...so no high 1rst or 2nd rd selections at play...but a bad Bronco season would elevate the 3rd rd pick they "owe us". Go Hawks

[RiverDog]

Since we don't have any draft picks at stake this season,

We traded down in the 3rd round in this years 2023 draft with Denver giving them our 3rd rd pick while getting their 4th rd pick ...AND a 2024 3rd Round pick as well...so no high 1rst or 2nd rd selections at play...but a bad Bronco season would elevate the 3rd rd pick they "owe us". Go Hawks

That's the second time in recent weeks that I've misspoke, so I stand corrected...again. But the status of a 3rd round pick doesn't hold enough interest for me to follow them like I did last season, hence my continual oversight about the 2024 3rd rounder.

[obiken]

"Way" better might not happen, but it's inevitable that the Broncos will fare better this season than last. They have a solid, top 10 defense. Even a marginal improvement on offense should be enough to get them into the playoffs.

Since we don't have any draft picks at stake this season, it won't be as captivating as it was last year, but how Russell performs under Payton will be one of those interesting dramas to watch.

Right I just think 9 games is the floor for them and 12 is the ceiling.