OT: Is the Pac 12 Dead?

[RiverDog]

Colorado announced a few days ago that it is moving back to the Big 12 conference:

Colorado's move back to the Big 12 is the latest in a series of dominoes that look to spell the end - at least, as we know it - of the Pac-12.

The conference was already dealing with the impending loss of two major members in USC and UCLA, and now it has to figure out how to retain the rest of its schools. Rumors have emerged over the last few months that schools have been looking to leave the conference amid the uncertainty surrounding its media rights deal.

As the Pac-12 prepares to lose its third member school in the last year, one ESPN analyst believes this is only the beginning of the end. "You may as well administer the Pac-12's last rites. It's over." He mentioned that the departures of USC, UCLA and now a potentially emerging program in Colorado are simply too great to withstand. "There's really nothing left," Finebaum said. "This league no longer has any relevance on the national stage."

Finebaum went on to say that the conference could lose even more members as schools evaluate the changing college sports landscape.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/other/ ... f8b3&ei=24

There's now just 9 conference members, and some of them may be looking to move. Oregon and Washington have been rumored to be contemplating following USC and UCLA to the Big 10. If that happens, the entire conference will fold.

The Pac 12 has been teetering on irrelevance for the past decade, with the conference unable to field football and men's basketball teams that can compete for national championships.

It's too damn bad. It wasn't that long ago when the conference could honestly live up to their billing as "the conference of champions" and has accelerated my disinterest in college sports.

We'll end up with 3 or 4 super conferences, with teams like Washington State and Oregon State being forced to join mid-major conferences like the Mountain West.

[trents]

I think your prediction is probably correct. I'm thinking Oregon and Washington will pull out and join one of the super conferences soon as they have consistently good enough programs to more or less compete at that higher levels. Stanford is a question mark. And Stanford is in a coaching transition as well. The could go either way but I'm thinking they will wind up in a mid major conference. It's difficult for them to compete at the highest level with any consistency because of their lofty academic requirements.

The thing that's most distasteful to me about these super conferences is that it essentially dissolves natural geographic/regional rivalries. And it will also force teams to travel huge distances to play conference foes. Lots of travel fatigue is going to happen.

[c_hawkbob]

Why? A power 5 conference ticket to the playoffs just got easier. It'd take a lot of TV money to look past that.

[MackStrongIsMyHero]

It tracks why they are doing it, but I don’t like where it is headed. PAC 12 is dramatically changed. Big 12 lost TAMU and MiZZOU several years ago and are now losing UTx and OU; all four in the SEC now.

I’m a MS State grad, so at least I still see the SEC teams I always have, but I don’t like the loss of regional rivalries. Even the new SEC schedule coming is removing multiple long standing yearly matchups from future schedules in favor of a rotating schedule.

Wonder if we’ll see college football get organized into leagues instead of conferences with the way it is going.

[RiverDog]

.

[trents]

Why? A power 5 conference ticket to the playoffs just got easier. It'd take a lot of TV money to look past that.

Money talks. I don't know how long the current PAC 12's TV revenue sharing contract is good for but when it's expired the next contract won't be near as lucrative and make it even more difficult to recruit competitively with the super conferences. After all, that's why those four Big 12 schools fled to the SEC - more TV money.

[RiverDog]

Why? A power 5 conference ticket to the playoffs just got easier. It'd take a lot of TV money to look past that.

Money talks. I don't know how long the current PAC 12's TV revenue sharing contract is good for but when it's expired the next contract won't be near as lucrative and make it even more difficult to recruit competitively with the super conferences. After all, that's why those four Big 12 schools fled to the SEC - more TV money.

That be true. The west coast, in particular California, is not a football hotbed when compared to the southeast and midwest. Take a look at all the NFL teams that have relocated in and out of California. In addition, the SEC has a number of teams where their game is the only one in the state. Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi, MSU, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Clemson are all in states that not only have no NFL teams, but no MLB, NBA, or NHL franchises. They are the only game in town and will attract a higher percentage of viewers than teams in the Pac 12.

The Pac 12 blew it a few years ago when they might have been able to poach Texas and Oklahoma. Now they're playing catch up.

[RiverDog]

The problem for the Pac 12 now is uncertainty. Will Arizona and ASU bolt to the Big 12? Or maybe Utah? Will Oregon and Washington leave and become part of the Big 10?

I don't know what the TV contracts are like, either. But with that kind of uncertainty, who in their right mind would sign a big contract with a conference that doesn't know who their members will or won't be?

You snooze, you lose. They should have poached OK and TX when they had the chance.

[NorthHawk]

To answer the title question, it's looking like it's heading toward life support.
Maybe be relegated to minor or rather secondary college sports status like we think of for the NAIA or MAC division, not as we think of as top tier college sports.

Is it true that if the Football program ends up going to a lesser status, the rest of the sports teams have to as well? For instance the Basketball program, Soccer, Baseball, and the rest would also move?
For example if the Pac 12 moved to Conference USA or the MAC, would it mean all of the sports for those teams would also follow or could they have a dominating Basketball program for instance that competes against the major college teams?

[RiverDog]

Is it true that if the Football program ends up going to a lesser status, the rest of the sports teams have to as well? For instance the Basketball program, Soccer, Baseball, and the rest would also move?
For example if the Pac 12 moved to Conference USA or the MAC, would it mean all of the sports for those teams would also follow or could they have a dominating Basketball program for instance that competes against the major college teams?

Yep, it includes all programs, men's and women's. That's one of the reasons why the Big 10 was so willing to accept UCLA as it brings in a program with a storied history. But it all depends on each conference's bylaws. As far as I know, members of all of the Power 5 conferences, ie Big 10, Big 12, SEC, ACC, and Pac 12, have to field teams in each sport the conference sponsors, both men's and women's.

One of the things that could happen is that the Pac 12 brings in a basketball-only program, such as Gonzaga. The Zags were once rumored to be considering moving to the Big 12 as basketball-only. There's other schools that belong to a conference in just a single sport or multiple conferences in different sports. One such example is Georgetown. The Hoyas belong to the Big East in men's basketball and the Patriot League (FCS) in football.

The Pac 12 is going to have to start thinking outside the box if they want to save their conference. Bring in Gonzaga for men's basketball and Boise State for football but not men's basketball.

[RiverDog]

It looks like Arizona could be the next Pac 12 team to bolt:

Tucsony tells us that Arizona to the #Big12 is now a "done deal" and "this will happen on or before Tuesday", which is consistent with what three others who follow Wildcats have told us. #BearDown

https://twitter.com/GSwaim/status/1685564012665188353

That could mean that both Arizona and Arizona State might both be heading to the Big 12 as the two colleges may insist that the two be admitted as a pair in order to preserve their rivalry.

[RiverDog]

Well, now there's a rumor that Washington and Oregon will be heading to the Big 10 this week:

Rumor Swirling That Big Ten Will Be Adding 4 New Schools This Week

Jack McGuire of Barstool Sports shared on Sunday that he's hearing the Big Ten will add Clemson, Florida State, Oregon and Washington.

"Scoop City has received a serious rumor that the Big Ten will add Washington, Oregon, FSU, and Clemson this week," he reported.

https://thespun.com/college-football/ru ... -this-week

If that happens, expect Cal and Stanford to move to the ACC to replace FSU and Clemson, and with the likelihood that Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah jumping to the Big 12, all that will be left of the conference will be WSU and Oregon State. Of course, it's all just rumors, but the complete demise of the Pac 12 is just around the corner.

[trents]

If the Pac 12 goes belly up, there will be one blessing that accrues from it. Bill Walton will not be able to say (over and over and over and over) that it is "the conference of champions". That guy drives me nuts!

[RiverDog]

If the Pac 12 goes belly up, there will be one blessing that accrues from it. Bill Walton will not be able to say (over and over and over and over) that it is "the conference of champions". That guy drives me nuts!

Hehe. Walton isn't the first person to use that cliche. It's as old as I can remember, and I'm nearly as old as Walton.

[trents]

Hehe. Walton isn't the first person to use that cliche. It's as old as I can remember, and I'm nearly as old as Walton.

Yeah, but no one has come even close to saying it as often as Walton!

[RiverDog]

The final nail in the coffin appears to have been hammered in. It appears that Washington and Oregon are leaving the Pac 12 for the Big 10:

Washington appears to be on the verge of accepting an invitation to enter the Big Ten Conference.

Yahoo! reported Friday that “the Big Ten is in the final stages of adding Oregon and Washington as it expands to 18 teams,” and the Huskies and Ducks have informed other Pac-12 programs they intend to leave.”

According to ESPN, UW and Oregon are expected to formally apply for membership Friday, with a Big Ten vote to follow this evening. That vote is expected to be unanimous.

The University of Washington’s Board of Regents — who met for a 95-minute closed-door “special meeting” on Thursday night — would then have to vote to approve the move.

https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/uw- ... nvitation/

Stanford and Cal may join the Big 10 as well. It looks like Washington State and Oregon State will end up in the Mountain West Conference and lose their status as Power 5 schools.

[NorthHawk]

Too bad for the regional rivalries unless there are special accommodations for them.

[RiverDog]

Too bad for the regional rivalries unless there are special accommodations for them.

Oregon and Washington will still be playing the 'States' each season, ie the Apple Cup and the Civil War, but it might not occur on the traditional Thanksgiving Day weekend as it has for eons. Plus, it's not going to be a fair fight...as if it has been in the past...with UW and UO being in the Big 10 and Wazu and OSU in the Mountain West.

[RiverDog]

Utah, Arizona, and Arizona State are officially moving to the Big 12. That leaves just four schools in the Pac-12: Stanford, Cal, Oregon State, and Washington State.

There has been some talk of Stanford going independent ala Notre Dame, but that's going to be damn difficult as scheduling would be a nightmare, especially for a school on the west coast. Teams from the central and eastern time zones aren't going to want to come out west and play a late game, and the conference commitments of potential opponents will severely limit the available dates.

I've heard rumors that Stanford might join the Ivy League, but that would be way outside of the box. I can't imagine the Ivy League schools agreeing to such a proposal. Most of them are private and their athletic departments are already in the red.

Washington State and Oregon State are sure to join the MWC. From what I've heard, the conference is open to taking them in.

[NorthHawk]

It will be interesting to see what the Rose Bowl does for matchups with it traditionally being BIG10 vs PAC12 (now BIG18 and PAC4).
Maybe they will try to get the best teams in the BIG10 not in the playoffs or maybe BIG12 vs BIG10?

[RiverDog]

It will be interesting to see what the Rose Bowl does for matchups with it traditionally being BIG10 vs PAC12 (now BIG18 and PAC4).
Maybe they will try to get the best teams in the BIG10 not in the playoffs or maybe BIG12 vs BIG10?

My idea about the NYD bowls was that they incorporate them into the playoffs and make them quarterfinal games and allow the participant that is the highest seeded play as the home team in the nearest of the 4 bowls.

For example, assume that the top 4 seeds are LSU, Ohio State, USC, and Texas: LSU hosts the Sugar Bowl, USC hosts the Rose Bowl, Texas hosts the Fiesta Bowl, and Ohio State hosts the Orange Bowl.

[NorthHawk]

That sounds like a good idea.
I would think that the bowl committees are discussing different options on a regular basis now that things have changed so much.

[MackStrongIsMyHero]

Now Stanford, California, and SMU are going to the ACC.

https://www.espn.com/college-sports/sto ... rd-cal-smu

At least, they are being invited. I’m assuming they’ll all accept. You called, River. Oregon State and Washington State are the last ones standing and them moving to the MWC looks probable.

[RiverDog]

Now Stanford, California, and SMU are going to the ACC.

https://www.espn.com/college-sports/sto ... rd-cal-smu

At least, they are being invited. I’m assuming they’ll all accept. You called, River. Oregon State and Washington State are the last ones standing and them moving to the MWC looks probable.

WSU and OSU will end up in either the MWC or the AAC, but my bet is that they'll go with the MWC as they are closer geographically with teams like Boise State, Utah State, Colorado State, etc, plus having Hawaii in the conference might be a recruiting draw.

[trents]

What will the ACC call itself? Geographically speaking, it certainly makes no sense to retain the name Atlantic Coast Conference. How about Coast to Coast Conference (CCC)? Or, ATP (Atlantic To Pacific Conference)?

[RiverDog]

What will the ACC call itself? Geographically speaking, it certainly makes no sense to retain the name Atlantic Coast Conference. How about Coast to Coast Conference (CCC)? Or, ATP (Atlantic To Pacific Conference)?

No more oxymoronic than an 18-team conference calling itself the Big 10.

But how about the Poacher's Conference? Or maybe the Money Grubbers Association?

[trents]

My alma mater is Va Tech. Maybe I'll get more of their games televised here on the west coast since west coast teams are now in their conference.

[NorthHawk]

It's starting to make me think that some of these huge conferences might just collapse at some point.
From what I understand, at the moment, it's teams going after (or setting themselves up down the road) money from TV deals. But with streaming and such, the money might not be there or not be the same as expected.
We are in the middle of media change so lots of things can unexpectedly change the outcome down the road. It might be that the different schools are thinking there is some protection in numbers.

[Aseahawkfan]

Hard to believe the Pac-12 is just gone. What incredible mismanagement.

[jshawaii22]

Pac 12 May be dead, but it looks like the last year is going to be a wild way to go out. Penix is the real deal, at least for a good Husky team. Love to see him in a 'Hawks uniform next year. USC, Oregon and check out Colorado. Maybe 1 or 2 teams in the playoffs. You never know.

[MackStrongIsMyHero]

Pac 12 May be dead, but it looks like the last year is going to be a wild way to go out. Penix is the real deal, at least for a good Husky team. Love to see him in a 'Hawks uniform next year. USC, Oregon and check out Colorado. Maybe 1 or 2 teams in the playoffs. You never know.

Was talking to my wife about that yesterday. They weee eager to abandon the PAC12 and yet they look to be a very exciting confernece this year for the reasons you mentioned. It’s like they couldn’t wait for things to bounce back.

[TriCitySam]

Of course plenty of talk the Pac-12 will be reinvented - if WSU and OSU stay in the Pac-12, they get all the assets/liabilities and CFP playoff spot, so the restructuring of the Pac-12 by bringing the MWC into it may make sense. I've heard the Pac-12 has a $60MM cash reserve. So they would get that, if they leave to the MWC the $ is split 12 ways, not 2.