Hawk's Red Zone Conundrum

[4XPIPS]

I wanted to bring some light to what seems to be a unfixable week to week issue with this offense. We seem to have a top tier offense between the 20's, but almost dead last when we get into the redzone. So what's the deal, is it lack of creativity?... is it Geno? or is it something else? I mean we have moved the ball quite effectively each week, but how do we get to 1st and goal from within the 3 yard line and not come out with TDs?

My theory is that I think we are using K9 wrong with short yardage. He has great balance and seems to be more effective when bouncing outside of the tackles. However, running up the middle is something I think he struggles with, or could be a combo poor interior push and he isn't stout enough to push for a yard or two. I would rather see a pitch to the outside have him out run the defender or take a DB on for short yardage. I know this isn't the only issue at hand, but this many trips to the Redzone and to be coming up this short time after time isn't just bad luck, its bad execution.

[RiverDog]

I wanted to bring some light to what seems to be a unfixable week to week issue with this offense. We seem to have a top tier offense between the 20's, but almost dead last when we get into the redzone. So what's the deal, is it lack of creativity?... is it Geno? or is it something else? I mean we have moved the ball quite effectively each week, but how do we get to 1st and goal from within the 3 yard line and not come out with TDs?

My theory is that I think we are using K9 wrong with short yardage. He has great balance and seems to be more effective when bouncing outside of the tackles. However, running up the middle is something I think he struggles with, or could be a combo poor interior push and he isn't stout enough to push for a yard or two. I would rather see a pitch to the outside have him out run the defender or take a DB on for short yardage. I know this isn't the only issue at hand, but this many trips to the Redzone and to be coming up this short time after time isn't just bad luck, its bad execution.

Charbonnet is a harder runner than Walker and might be a better option in the red zone. We also have two really big, strong WR's in Metcalf and Bobo that we should be able to take advantage of mismatches.

That inability to get the ball into the end zone is going to come back to haunt us in close games.

[c_hawkbob]

I wanted to bring some light to what seems to be a unfixable week to week issue with this offense. We seem to have a top tier offense between the 20's, but almost dead last when we get into the redzone. So what's the deal, is it lack of creativity?... is it Geno? or is it something else? I mean we have moved the ball quite effectively each week, but how do we get to 1st and goal from within the 3 yard line and not come out with TDs?

My theory is that I think we are using K9 wrong with short yardage. He has great balance and seems to be more effective when bouncing outside of the tackles. However, running up the middle is something I think he struggles with, or could be a combo poor interior push and he isn't stout enough to push for a yard or two. I would rather see a pitch to the outside have him out run the defender or take a DB on for short yardage. I know this isn't the only issue at hand, but this many trips to the Redzone and to be coming up this short time after time isn't just bad luck, its bad execution.

Charbonnet is a harder runner than Walker and might be a better option in the red zone. We also have two really big, strong WR's in Metcalf and Bobo that we should be able to take advantage of mismatches.

That inability to get the ball into the end zone is going to come back to haunt us in close games.

We've sucked in the red zone for a long time, I don't think it's a personnel issue, I think Pete tries to outsmart himself in those situations.

[NorthHawk]

What's the difference in the Offense from this year to last?
I see a less imaginative Offense, we aren't using the TEs as much and there is less pre snap motion. I think that now that the Defense has begun to recover, Pete has put his thumb down on the Offense and we've started to revert to Peteball.
The last two games, I've rarely noticed receivers being schemed open, which gave us a lot of success last year and Waldron is starting to take some heat, much like Schottenheimer and Bevell before him.

So, what does that have to do with the Red Zone? Simply put, teams know what we are going to do. Just like in previous years. Last year at the beginning, nobody knew what we were going to run with a lot of deception pre snap.
This year, it's much less.

[4XPIPS]

Charbonnet is a harder runner than Walker and might be a better option in the red zone. We also have two really big, strong WR's in Metcalf and Bobo that we should be able to take advantage of mismatches.

That inability to get the ball into the end zone is going to come back to haunt us in close games.

Totally agree with ZC is a more physical north to south runner, and maybe in the short yardage runs he would have punched it in better than slamming K9 up the middle.

We've sucked in the red zone for a long time, I don't think it's a personnel issue, I think Pete tries to outsmart himself in those situations.

I can't remember our Redzone offense this bad for a long time. I don't recall last year being this bad, but I don't disagree with you, it's not like we were the Eagles where Jalen who can squat a pick up truck and literally get 1 to 2 yards almost 99% of the time with farmer's strength Jason Kelce in the middle.

What's the difference in the Offense from this year to last?
I see a less imaginative Offense, we aren't using the TEs as much and there is less pre snap motion. I think that now that the Defense has begun to recover, Pete has put his thumb down on the Offense and we've started to revert to Peteball.
The last two games, I've rarely noticed receivers being schemed open, which gave us a lot of success last year and Waldron is starting to take some heat, much like Schottenheimer and Bevell before him.

So, what does that have to do with the Red Zone? Simply put, teams know what we are going to do. Just like in previous years. Last year at the beginning, nobody knew what we were going to run with a lot of deception pre snap.
This year, it's much less.

NorthHawk

You make an interesting analysis that we have a less imaginative offense. I find that intriguing considering this is +1 more year for Geno, + 1 more year for the same TE group, + 1 more year for the OL (with exception of injuries) and + 1 more year with K9, + 1 more year with DK and Lock. So why are we regressing when Shane has been with this offense for another + 1 more year? Does Pete have that much influence on play calls when it comes to Redzone offense? It would be truly nice to know how much of the offense that Shane operates with or without the input of Pete.

[RiverDog]

We've sucked in the red zone for a long time, I don't think it's a personnel issue, I think Pete tries to outsmart himself in those situations.

I can't remember our Redzone offense this bad for a long time. I don't recall last year being this bad, but I don't disagree with you, it's not like we were the Eagles where Jalen who can squat a pick up truck and literally get 1 to 2 yards almost 99% of the time with farmer's strength Jason Kelce in the middle.

Just for the hell of it, I went back and looked at our red zone performance all the way back to 2010, Pete's first year:

2023 (as of Week 7) 48.0%, 21st
2022 48.2%, 27th
2021 64.58%, 3rd
2020 73.68%, 3rd
2019 64.2%, 5th
2018 65.5%, 7th
2017 55.6, 12th
2016 47.6%, 25th
2015 55.6%, 16th
2014 51.6%, 20th
2013 53.2%, 13th
2012 53.9%, 16th
2011 47.8%, 22nd
2010 45.6%, 26th

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/r ... 2023-10-26

Our 5 best years were all in succession, from 2017-2021, when Russell was our QB. Now with Geno as the man, we've plummeted. Coincidence?

[4XPIPS]

2023 (as of Week 7) 48.0%, 21st
2022 48.2%, 27th
2021 64.58%, 3rd
2020 73.68%, 3rd
2019 64.2%, 5th
2018 65.5%, 7th
2017 55.6, 12th
2016 47.6%, 25th
2015 55.6%, 16th
2014 51.6%, 20th
2013 53.2%, 13th
2012 53.9%, 16th
2011 47.8%, 22nd
2010 45.6%, 26th

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/r ... 2023-10-26

Our 5 best years were all in succession, from 2017-2021, when Russell was our QB. Now with Geno as the man, we've plummeted. Coincidence?

oof, numbers don't lie do they. If there is a common factor in this, it probably is Geno then. I guess my expectation wasn't very high last year for Geno so any win overshadowed the lack luster Red Zone success.

[Aseahawkfan]

I don't think Geno is more than a bridge QB. I think he is the bigger problem with the red zone as well as Russ's fall off years. I don't believe in this Pete Ball stuff. He doesn't like turnovers which may lead to a QB like Geno not wanting to throw red zone interceptions, but prime Russ we did well. We're not doing as well because our QB situation isn't as good. That's why I'd prefer a better QB with more zip and speed with decision making. You don't have time in the red zone with everything compressed and crowded. You have to hit quick and zip it in. That ain't Geno. Geno is careful because he knows keeping Pete happy means not turning the ball over. Red zone turnovers are killers. Geno don't trust himself there.

We need a QB upgrade. Young, cocky, confident, and can zip that ball in and blow off the coach yelling at him when we win enough.

[4XPIPS]

I don't think Geno is more than a bridge QB. I think he is the bigger problem with the red zone as well as Russ's fall off years. I don't believe in this Pete Ball stuff. He doesn't like turnovers which may lead to a QB like Geno not wanting to throw red zone interceptions, but prime Russ we did well. We're not doing as well because our QB situation isn't as good. That's why I'd prefer a better QB with more zip and speed with decision making. You don't have time in the red zone with everything compressed and crowded. You have to hit quick and zip it in. That ain't Geno. Geno is careful because he knows keeping Pete happy means not turning the ball over. Red zone turnovers are killers. Geno don't trust himself there.

We need a QB upgrade. Young, cocky, confident, and can zip that ball in and blow off the coach yelling at him when we win enough.

Well I wouldn't want Caleb Williams, doubt we would get him anyways considering how high he would go in the draft. I would take a shot on a mobile QB with a strong arm that offers the dual threat, but not toooooooo much running as the risk of injury always seems to doom the QBs that are dual threats. To improve Red Zone I would take a shot at Bo Nix, or JJ McCarthy.

[RiverDog]

It's not just in the red zone where we're failing to convert. We're ranked 24th on 3rd down.

And in that stat, we can't just blame Geno. Russell's Seahawks were ranked 23rd in 2021, 27th in 2020, so our failures likely have multiple causes, like our scheme, offensive line, receiving corps, etc.

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/t ... 2023-10-26

[NorthHawk]

You make an interesting analysis that we have a less imaginative offense. I find that intriguing considering this is +1 more year for Geno, + 1 more year for the same TE group, + 1 more year for the OL (with exception of injuries) and + 1 more year with K9, + 1 more year with DK and Lock. So why are we regressing when Shane has been with this offense for another + 1 more year? Does Pete have that much influence on play calls when it comes to Redzone offense? It would be truly nice to know how much of the offense that Shane operates with or without the input of Pete.

Well, remember when Pete first got here? He said something like we are going to pound the rock and throw for chunk plays.
Now move to when we were on pace to have the worst Defense in NFL history and the Offense was let loose. Wilson and the Offense won us the first 5 games or thereabouts. Then the Defense turned the corner and suddenly the Offense was shut down to the same old thing. Now look at this year from last. The Defense was terrible but now that they have seemingly got their act together, the Offense is no longer playing like it did when you would expect with added weapons the creativitiy
would be expanding. But what we seem to be seeing is it is in fact shrinking. Less pre snap motion, less deception, less use of the TEs, fewer passes beyond the LoS to RBs and a more predictable pattern. This happened with Bevell, Schottenheimer, and now Waldron. So what is the common denominator? Pete Carroll. Maybe I'm wrong, and it's just an aberration and we will return to last years style of scheming players open, but history shows us that it's a good possibility that the Offense is being held back. Remember what Pete said after our 5 game win streak to start the year came to an end: 'This is football that I don't understand'. With the Defense in a free fall at the time one would expect he was talking about them, but he was talking about the Offense, which was then scaled back.

[4XPIPS]

Well, remember when Pete first got here? He said something like we are going to pound the rock and throw for chunk plays.
Now move to when we were on pace to have the worst Defense in NFL history and the Offense was let loose. Wilson and the Offense won us the first 5 games or thereabouts. Then the Defense turned the corner and suddenly the Offense was shut down to the same old thing. Now look at this year from last. The Defense was terrible but now that they have seemingly got their act together, the Offense is no longer playing like it did when you would expect with added weapons the creativitiy
would be expanding. But what we seem to be seeing is it is in fact shrinking. Less pre snap motion, less deception, less use of the TEs, fewer passes beyond the LoS to RBs and a more predictable pattern. This happened with Bevell, Schottenheimer, and now Waldron. So what is the common denominator? Pete Carroll. Maybe I'm wrong, and it's just an aberration and we will return to last years style of scheming players open, but history shows us that it's a good possibility that the Offense is being held back. Remember what Pete said after our 5 game win streak to start the year came to an end: 'This is football that I don't understand'. With the Defense in a free fall at the time one would expect he was talking about them, but he was talking about the Offense, which was then scaled back.

I don't think you are wrong by pointing out the offensive scheme being handcuff'd by Pete. I will agree with running the ball and sustaining long drives and calling plays at the peak end of the play clock helps the defense out. Defense has more time to rest, and more time to make in game adjustments. Teams that score fast and often tend to hamper their defense, look at Lincoln Riley and his offense for all the years he has coached college. High Scoring offense, but his defense can't keep up and his team's have historically given up massive points against.

In Pete's perfect world he would own time of poss. by 65%+ of the game, and this gives the defense the ability to go out and fire off with high energy and shut down opposing defense. Problem I see is that Pete still believes he has a run dominant offense and a suffocating defense, which neither have been able to get back to the days when we had Beastmode with our LOB. So I totally agree Pete has not changed and isn't willing to see any other way.

[4XPIPS]

A play for Jake Bobo

Most my think this is silly, but here is my thought on a play that I feel will work.

Before I start this is purely a twist on the Eagles 1 Yard Rugby Scrum. If you think of that play it's purely based on brute strength, no trickery, no flash, but just pure strength and push. It's highly successful and almost unstoppable. If the Eagles need 1 to 2 yards, they pretty much will get it whenever they need it.

Back to Bobo, and this would be a play for 5 yards or less with in the redzone where speed isn't required.

Bring out our 3 TEs and DJ Dallas and of course Bobo. Line Bobo up on the far side and have the TEs covering each tackle, and one TE with Dallas lined just outside each TE to complete the formation. Basically forming a 9 man front protection bunker.

Send Bobo only, and Bobo straight out and let him win the high jump battle one vs two or three with whomever is defending him and let him win the high point of the pass. Leave all 9 back to pass protect, this should give Geno the required time to throw a high point pass to Bobo. He shouldn't get sacked with 9 people blocking for him. He is either going to get PI call or he will jump up and catch the ball at the high point. I have 100% confidence he has great hand skills to win that high point jump.

It sounds silly, but sometimes it just takes a simple play and just use the abilities we have.

[RiverDog]

I don't think you are wrong by pointing out the offensive scheme being handcuff'd by Pete. I will agree with running the ball and sustaining long drives and calling plays at the peak end of the play clock helps the defense out. Defense has more time to rest, and more time to make in game adjustments. Teams that score fast and often tend to hamper their defense, look at Lincoln Riley and his offense for all the years he has coached college. High Scoring offense, but his defense can't keep up and his team's have historically given up massive points against.

I have a better example than that. Do you remember Chip Kelly's Quack Attack offense in Philly? Their defense barely had time to take their helmets off and get a drink of water.

[4XPIPS]

I have a better example than that. Do you remember Chip Kelly's Quack Attack offense in Philly? Their defense barely had time to take their helmets off and get a drink of water.

I forgot that about, yes that was a topic for a hot minute. I think I watched an interview with Mark Sanchez few years back when he became a NFL commentator and he mentioned how frustrated the defense was in the locker room with the offense because they knew it wasn't sustainable.3

I almost feel that coaches like Lincoln Riley, Chip Kelly, Kliff Kingsbury prefer their defense to suck so they can have more opportunities to show case their offense.

How many Heisman Winners or candidates are tide to Riley and Kingsbury?

[NorthHawk]

Waldron is a disciple of McVay and we saw the real start of that transition last year. Then he suddenly tones it down and becomes more like the Offense we had during the Bevell years. It's not that Offense, yet but we are missing out
on using JSN and the abilities of the RBs in the pass game. Why would Pete want to poach Waldron if he doesn't want to fully use that Offensive system? It's like trading for Jimmy Graham and shut down the side of his game that made him different.
Maybe things will change beginning this week or maybe it's just a phase, but I'm concerned we are regressing on Offense.

[Aseahawkfan]

Waldron is a disciple of McVay and we saw the real start of that transition last year. Then he suddenly tones it down and becomes more like the Offense we had during the Bevell years. It's not that Offense, yet but we are missing out
on using JSN and the abilities of the RBs in the pass game. Why would Pete want to poach Waldron if he doesn't want to fully use that Offensive system? It's like trading for Jimmy Graham and shut down the side of his game that made him different.
Maybe things will change beginning this week or maybe it's just a phase, but I'm concerned we are regressing on Offense.

Can Geno run that type of offense? That is the question.

McVay is not a risk averse coached focused on keeping turnovers to a minimum. The only part of Pete Ball I believe in is Pete's commitment to the run and his aversion to turnovers. He doesn't want turnovers. So every QB he develops in Seattle is practically bludgeoned with a protect the ball mentality. Do not turn the ball over. How much does this limit Waldron's play calling? I don't know. In McVay style offenses, the QB is allowed to throw, even if a risky play. He wants offensive production and scoring. Pete wants ball control first and foremost followed by scoring and production. He believes not turning the ball over is more important than what can be gained by risky play calling or passing plays.

Then you have to wonder how much of this is Geno not able to do all that Waldron wants to do consistently.

[NorthHawk]

Geno ran it pretty well last year.
And McVay's Offense isn't risky. It schemes players open which in many ways can be considered conservative. It's easier to throw to open receivers than it is to throw into double coverage.
Again, maybe it's just a few games, but for me it's something to keep an eye on.

[RiverDog]

Geno ran it pretty well last year.
And McVay's Offense isn't risky. It schemes players open which in many ways can be considered conservative. It's easier to throw to open receivers than it is to throw into double coverage.
Again, maybe it's just a few games, but for me it's something to keep an eye on.

For not being a risky offense, Mathew Stafford led the league in interceptions in 2021.

[NorthHawk]

Every QB is different.

[Aseahawkfan]

Geno ran it pretty well last year.
And McVay's Offense isn't risky. It schemes players open which in many ways can be considered conservative. It's easier to throw to open receivers than it is to throw into double coverage.
Again, maybe it's just a few games, but for me it's something to keep an eye on.

We were 27th in red zone last year, so not sure Geno ran it very well. Or maybe you consider red zone scoring not that important. Geno still had good stats not producing very well in the red zone or on third down.

McVay does run a riskier offense and let's his QBs throw even if they get ints. We all know when Pete tamps downs: when turnovers rise. The year Russ was cooking as it was called, his turnovers rose as expected when you throw more and Pete tamped it down.

Fact is very few QBs are as good as Mahomes or Rodgers in high volume passing offenses. So you have to expect higher turnovers the more you throw. Coaches like McVay understand and accept this since they cannot be 100 percent sure they have a QB like Rodgers, Mahomes, or Brees. Pete will not accept this and as soon as the turnovers rise, the command to reduce them will come which usually leads to more run plays and more careful throwing by the QB.

[RiverDog]

Every QB is different.

Stafford's league leading 17 interceptions in 2021 was the most he'd thrown in 8 seasons, so you just can't blame it on the quarterback.