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MackStrongIsMyHero wrote:The comp pick isn’t a given. This trade was a win now move that required the 2nd rounder to get him in under the cap. If he happens to sign an extension or nets a comp pick next offseason, that’s lagniappe for me.

My comments were based on former GM Randy Mueller's tweet: that if they fail to resign him "it put's them in line for a 3rd round compensatory pick, so this is basically a pick swap (minus the 5th)."

MackStrongIsMyHero wrote:The comp pick isn’t a given. This trade was a win now move that required the 2nd rounder to get him in under the cap. If he happens to sign an extension or nets a comp pick next offseason, that’s lagniappe for me.

My comments were based upon former GM Randy Mueller's tweet, stating that if Seattle is unable to sign him (and he signs elsewhere), "It puts them in line for a compensatory 3rd round pick. So this is basically a pick sway (minus the 5th rounder)." I assume based on his comments that is what teams would expect.

Pioli said pretty much the same thing on GMFB.

RiverDog wrote:Stay in the race between the Eagles and Cowboys? If that's what they're thinking, they'd better wake up and smell the roses. They're behind us in the race for the division title.

And as far as desperation goes, they're still a very legitimate contender with a 5-3 record. They would be completely unjustified to be taking unnecessary risks to right their ship.

4XPIPS wrote:Regardless of the current records and where we sit, I still feel the 49ers are a better team than us until proven otherwise. As you have mentioned many times previously are schedule is about to get real tough and we still have two games against 49ers. I would be shocked if we can maintain this position in the conference standings after we play them twice in a short period. It seems like Purdy and Geno are going down the same path, but the 49ers just have way more talent on both sides of the ball and they are getting Deebo back soon.

Oh, I agree that the 49'ers are still the favorites to win the division. I'm just saying that they'd better forget about the power rankings and start worrying about beating us, of whom they play twice in three weeks.

Looking at the Niners remaining schedule, they're going to have to get their act together really quick. This Sunday, they play a very good Jacksonville team then starting on Thanksgiving Day, go into a stretch where they'll be playing us twice along with the Eagles and Ravens. That's where the division is going to be won or lost for both of us.

As far as Brock Purdy goes, he hasn't been playing all that badly, at least statistically. He still has a 12:5 TD:INT ratio, is completing over 68% of his passes, and is ranked 3rd in the league in passer rating. I haven't seen every play of the Niners season like I have with ours, but after watching Geno for the past few games, I can't imagine Purdy not outperforming him. Geno has gotten away with a lot of bad decisions. As my dad would say, he's been luckier than a 3-peckered billy goat in a herd of sheep.

There's a good possibility that we go 0-4 in these next games, but I think we will squeak out 1 win and if the cards fall just right maybe 2. Injuries for all teams will be a big factor the outcomes.

Assuming the Seahawks don't sign other FAs that offset Williams, then, yeah, he should let a 3rd round compensatory, but that's why it's not a given, and why I don't consider it a factor that offsets the compensation to get him.

RiverDog wrote:Oh, I agree that the 49'ers are still the favorites to win the division. I'm just saying that they'd better forget about the power rankings and start worrying about beating us, of whom they play twice in three weeks.

Looking at the Niners remaining schedule, they're going to have to get their act together really quick. This Sunday, they play a very good Jacksonville team then starting on Thanksgiving Day, go into a stretch where they'll be playing us twice along with the Eagles and Ravens. That's where the division is going to be won or lost for both of us.

As far as Brock Purdy goes, he hasn't been playing all that badly, at least statistically. He still has a 12:5 TD:INT ratio, is completing over 68% of his passes, and is ranked 3rd in the league in passer rating. I haven't seen every play of the Niners season like I have with ours, but after watching Geno for the past few games, I can't imagine Purdy not outperforming him. Geno has gotten away with a lot of bad decisions. As my dad would say, he's been luckier than a 3-peckered billy goat in a herd of sheep.

Brock is showing some issues; throwing some really killer interceptions in these last three games. I don't think that means he's done; it just means that after 16 or 17 games, defenses are able to account for him better. It was going to happen to some degree. They are still far better with him than without him.

More concerning for the 49ers is their defense. Cousins and Burrow tore them up in the passing game, and Joe Mixon had 5.4 yards per carry for 87 yards. They aren't cooked as a team, but they are still human and beatable.

MackStrongIsMyHero wrote:Assuming the Seahawks don't sign other FAs that offset Williams, then, yeah, he should let a 3rd round compensatory, but that's why it's not a given, and why I don't consider it a factor that offsets the compensation to get him.

Not correct.
He would have to sign a contract with another team that is one of the top contracts for his position. Can you see him signing a contract worth more than $21M/year which is more than what SF gave Hargrave?
As well, we would have to re-sign our FAs and no FA's from other teams. So it looks like a 10 game rental for Williams because we are so tight on our Cap. OvertheCap has us having about $6M in Cap space next year and maybe $12 if we cut Mone, who may never play again because of injury. With that $12M we have to decide if we want to pay Geno $35-$40M, and re-sign our essential FA's.

Here's a formula from overthecap.com

Basic explanation
https://overthecap.com/the-basics-and-m ... raft-picks
Formula
https://overthecap.com/compensatory-formula

NorthHawk wrote:
Not correct.
He would have to sign a contract with another team that is one of the top contracts for his position. Can you see him signing a contract worth more than $21M/year which is more than what SF gave Hargrave?
As well, we would have to re-sign our FAs and no FA's from other teams. So it looks like a 10 game rental for Williams because we are so tight on our Cap. OvertheCap has us having about $6M in Cap space next year and maybe $12 if we cut Mone, who may never play again because of injury. With that $12M we have to decide if we want to pay Geno $35-$40M, and re-sign our essential FA's.

Here's a formula from overthecap.com

Basic explanation
https://overthecap.com/the-basics-and-m ... raft-picks
Formula
https://overthecap.com/compensatory-formula

That’s the site I went to, and it would be incorrect for me to use the current ranking for what the comp pick would be. Im could be misinterpreting, but as long as he ranks in the top 5% of comp scoring, he’d warrant a 3rd round comp. He may not have to get $21 million, but it would probably need to be high.

Rob Staton compared Williams to other DL that got contracts recently and thinks Williams is more likely to sign a contract that nets the Hawks a 4th or 5th rounder. This is obviously speculation and it all depends on how well he plays, but based on age (he'll be 30 in June) and recent production Staton doesn't see Williams getting a huge contract in the offseason.

https://seahawksdraftblog.com/the-truth ... d-williams

Basically in order to get a 3rd round comp pick, he would have to sign a contract that equals Bosa or Garrett or some other DE of that level of play. That would put him in the top 5%.
However, he's been traded twice - once for a 3rd round pick and now to Seattle for a 2nd and 5th, so we can infer his value from those trades and a top 5% contract seems highly unlikely.

Could we get a 4th? Doubtful again because he's only had a couple of sacks this year and isn't rated very high against the run (so far) but if he lights the world on fire then, maybe he might get a contract.
This would mean that we did not sign any FAs of note ourselves, but we have about 12 players on the list of FA's that we will have to replace either by re-signing or by other players replacing them. If we sign other players it will probably negate any compensation we might have received from Williams signing with another team.

From where it stands today, it's highly unlikely we get anything more than a 5th or 6th and probably nothing should he decide to sign elsewhere because we need to fill so many holes ourselves in FA.

NorthHawk wrote:Basically in order to get a 3rd round comp pick, he would have to sign a contract that equals Bosa or Garrett or some other DE of that level of play. That would put him in the top 5%.
However, he's been traded twice - once for a 3rd round pick and now to Seattle for a 2nd and 5th, so we can infer his value from those trades and a top 5% contract seems highly unlikely.

Could we get a 4th? Doubtful again because he's only had a couple of sacks this year and isn't rated very high against the run (so far) but if he lights the world on fire then, maybe he might get a contract.
This would mean that we did not sign any FAs of note ourselves, but we have about 12 players on the list of FA's that we will have to replace either by re-signing or by other players replacing them. If we sign other players it will probably negate any compensation we might have received from Williams signing with another team.

From where it stands today, it's highly unlikely we get anything more than a 5th or 6th and probably nothing should he decide to sign elsewhere because we need to fill so many holes ourselves in FA.

I don't think it's strictly contract value that needs to put him in the top 5%; it's the total scoring for comp picks. The list in the second link has multiple guys beyond the 3rd Run cutoff that are making as much or more in APY but their score is lower because of lack of snaps and honors. It may still be possible, if unlikely, for him to qualify for a 3rd.

Regardless, any comp pick from him is just extra. The primary pay off of this deal was the $10 million cap hit to the Giants and 10 games (and hopefully playoffs) of bolstering our DL. I am more than happy with that.

True.
And that brings us back to value for the trade. Will it be worth it to spend 2 draft picks for a player that will play maybe 10 games (if he doesn't get injured)?
Is Pete back in the 'We can win it all if we just get one player' mode and not thinking about the future? Are they now going to abandon building through the draft and instead mortgage the future for a long shot this year?
It might be that's what's going on in his head, but we will see come draft time.

I definitely get the uneasiness about making this move; it has shades of the "one player away" mentality of years past. The main things that stand out to me that make me a less apprehensive about it are:

1. The team is 5-2 and now leading the division. There's a chance to be competitive and possibly make a run. They aren't waiting for the next year or three to take a shot. They can do this because...
2. ...they crushed the last two drafts. Very different from the previous seasons where they tried to hold an aging team together while trading way pivotal players (like Unger) and high draft picks for short term gain.
3. The draft capital given up isn't near as debilitating as previous trades. They can afford that 2nd round pick and they aren't tied to a giant contract nor tied to having to give one (like Adams).
4. They had to make a move on the DL; they needed a quality guy to get in the rotation if they intend to go the distance. Reed and Jones could use a few less snaps per game.
5. The old adage "good, quick, and cheap; pick two" holds true. Williams is good and quick so he didn't come cheap, even for just the remainder of this season.

Uncharacteristically, my glass is half full. I think this team does have a shot to make some noise in the post season, so I approve of the move. I am also hoping Young and now Faoliu (who practiced fully this week and can come off the PUP) can meaningfully contribute on the DL as the season goes on.

I am still optimistic they won't make one of those debilitating trades again after seeing the last two drafts; the only major move I want to see is packaging multiple picks to move up for the QBOTF in next draft, if he in fact is there.

Have we beat a team with a good QB yet this year? I don't think we have as most of our wins have been against backups.
This week against the Ravens should tell us how we stand amongst the better teams. If we get beaten badly, the trade will (IMO) show that it was probably a poor decision.
We should win against Washington, but then we hit the real difficult part of the season with the 9ers twice, Dallas, and the Eagles.
This year could fall apart pretty quickly and we won't have the draft capital to add.
As well, next year we have about $6M in Cap space - $12 if we cut Mone, so upgrading the team will be tough unless we make some major cuts to existing contracts and maybe cut Geno.
Draft picks are the inexpensive way to upgrade the team, but trading away for a shot at success when we really haven't beat a good team might be our long term downfall.

NorthHawk wrote:Have we beat a team with a good QB yet this year? I don't think we have as most of our wins have been against backups.

Would Goff and Burrow qualify as good?

NorthHawk wrote:Have we beat a team with a good QB yet this year? I don't think we have as most of our wins have been against backups.

I-5 wrote:Would Goff and Burrow qualify as good?

We beat the Lions, but we lost to the Bengals.

We lost to Burrow, but maybe Goff would be considered good. He's playing pretty well, so we beat 1 team with their starting QB.
If Baltimore plays like they have been, it will be a good test to see where we stand.

I think blowing draft picks to acquire players now can be detrimental if done to excess; I don't consider that to be the case in acquiring Williams. It's not lost on me that the schedule is about to get rough. I think that's a big reason why this move was made. There's no point in doing it after things go downhill. They got him so they'd have the help through this stretch. Remains to be seen if it pays off, but it's a move that make sense if they believe they can do something.

Burrow wasn't why we lost that game; offense had several wasted red zone trips, and Burrow wasn't at 100%. Should have pulled that one out.

Baltimore will tell us a lot about what we have. Early start on the East Coast against a tough team.

NorthHawk wrote:We lost to Burrow, but maybe Goff would be considered good. He's playing pretty well, so we beat 1 team with their starting QB.
If Baltimore plays like they have been, it will be a good test to see where we stand.

We lost to Burrow for lack of red zone ability. Defensively, we were lights out; Burrow was shut out the entire second half.

NorthHawk wrote:Have we beat a team with a good QB yet this year? I don't think we have as most of our wins have been against backups.
This week against the Ravens should tell us how we stand amongst the better teams. If we get beaten badly, the trade will (IMO) show that it was probably a poor decision.
We should win against Washington, but then we hit the real difficult part of the season with the 9ers twice, Dallas, and the Eagles.
This year could fall apart pretty quickly and we won't have the draft capital to add.
As well, next year we have about $6M in Cap space - $12 if we cut Mone, so upgrading the team will be tough unless we make some major cuts to existing contracts and maybe cut Geno.
Draft picks are the inexpensive way to upgrade the team, but trading away for a shot at success when we really haven't beat a good team might be our long term downfall.

Well considering our QB is playing like a back up as-is I think it all evens out with the competition we have played to this point

Nice trade, Pete. We need more young talent and you trade it away for 10 games this year ('I'll gladly pay you Tuesday for a Hamburger today').

https://www.profootballrumors.com/2023/ ... ms-in-2023