Metcalf's Reception vs. Targets Percentage

[RiverDog]

I got into an argument with a friend of mine which caused me to do some research on DK Metcalf's catches vs. targets percentage. So I wouldn't be accused of cherry picking, I simply went to the total receiving yards leaders, eliminated the tight ends, and recorded every one that ranked ahead of Metcalf (he's ranked 28th in receiving yards), the only exception being that I elevated Tyler Lockett for the comparison. I rounded to the nearest whole percentage except for the bottom two, which I carried out two decimal points. Here's my results:

Hill 72%
Allen 75%
Lamb 75
AJ Brown 70%
Moore 75%
St. Brown 75%
Diggs 69%
Nacua 66%
Chase 67%
Aiyuk 69%
Evans 59%
Adams 58%
Collins 68%
Pittman 68%
Olave 61%
Cooper 56%
Kirk 67%
DV Smith 72%
Thielen 77%
Dell 63%
Hopkins 54.22%
G. Wilson 57%
McLaurin 62%
Waddle 69%
Addison 66%
Lockett 68%
Metcalf 53.75%

As you can see, Metcalf has the worst receptions to targets percentage amongst the league's top wide receivers, beating out DeAndre Hopkins for the booby prize by .5%.

So who's to blame? Metcalf? Geno? Waldron? All of the above? Or is it completely irrelevant?

[NorthHawk]

Is that stat balls thrown in the Receivers direction or is it drops/defended plays?
It's hard for me to imagine Lockett dropping 1/3 of the throws his way.

If it's balls thrown in the Receivers direction then a number of things could be in play with some of them being throwing the ball away, poor route running, bad throws, good defensive play, predictable play calling, unimaginative route trees, and more.

[c_hawkbob]

Yeah, still need drops to complete the picture.

[RiverDog]

Is that stat balls thrown in the Receivers direction or is it drops/defended plays?
It's hard for me to imagine Lockett dropping 1/3 of the throws his way.

If it's balls thrown in the Receivers direction then a number of things could be in play with some of them being throwing the ball away, poor route running, bad throws, good defensive play, predictable play calling, unimaginative route trees, and more.

All I did was take the total number of targets and divide it by the total number of receptions. It's a pretty simple calculation.

[RiverDog]

Yeah, still need drops to complete the picture.

Drops wouldn't necessarily complete the picture if we're looking to see if it was the receiver that was primarily at fault. It wouldn't account for poorly run routes, not being able to stay in bounds, etc.

However, since I have all sorts of time on my hands, I'll do a little more homework and see what I can come up with. This is going to take a while.

[mykc14]

The reality is this is a huge issue. It's a major symptom of a broken passing game. Is it Geno? Is it DK? is it the offensive design, play calling, etc? Is it PC's turnover adverse philosophy? Whatever the reason it needs to be fixed. Our offense has been TERRIBLE and there isn't a good reason for it, unless you want to focus on the injuries upfront. At any rate both Geno and Waldren look like they will be looking for employment elsewhere next year. FWIW- It's not drops (DK and Tyler both have less than 3).

[RiverDog]

OK, here's a little more information. Next to each receiver after their target:reception percentage, I've included their receptions/targets/catchable passes/drops. Getting columns to line up is problematic in this format, but I've double spaced it to make it a little easier to read:

Hill 72% 88/120/97/9

Allen 75% 97/129/103/5

Lamb 75% 78/104/80/2

AJ Brown 70% 73/105/76/4

Moore 75% 70/93/72/2

St. Brown 75% 82/109/86/4

Diggs 69% 83/121/89/6

Nacua 66% 73/111/80/7

Chase 67% 75/112/79/4

Aiyuk 69% 45/47/2/4

Evans 59% 54/91/61/7

Adams 58% 69/118/73/4

Collins 68% 50/73/51/1

Pittman 68% 76/111/78/1

Olave 61% 63/103/65/2

Cooper 56% 47/86/51/4

Kirk 67% 56/84/60/4

DV Smith 72% 76/58/2

Thielen 77% 77/100/81/4

Dell 63% 47/75/51/4

Hopkins 54.22% 45/83/49/3

G. Wilson 57% 64/113/69/5

McLaurin 62% 60/97/65/5

Waddle 69% 52/79/55/3

Addison 66% 54/82/57/3

Lockett 68% 54/79/56/2

Metcalf 53.75% 43/80/46/2

I'm not sure what all that means, but there's the raw data if anyone wants to take a shot at interpreting it. As I stated above, there's more to a receiver's responsibility besides catching catchable passes. Route running is something that can't be easily factored in, although I imagine that PFF has figured out a way to incorporate it in their player grades and rankings.

[4XPIPS]

Nearly half of DK's passes are uncatchable... goodness. Look at Keenan Allen catchable passes, pretty damn good accuracy. I hope we get Bo Nix next year

[RiverDog]

Nearly half of DK's passes are uncatchable... goodness. Look at Keenan Allen catchable passes, pretty damn good accuracy. I hope we get Bo Nix next year

That's not necessarily on the QB. Many of Metcalf's routes are low percentage passes 20-30 yards up the sideline and into tight windows. I'm sure that Keenan Allen's targets are a little higher percentage.

[RiverDog]

My take on this information is that we're either targeting Metcalf too often, we're not utilizing him properly, or that he's limited in his route running capability.

Take Metcalf out of the equation and Geno's completion percentage goes up from 65.4% to 68.7%. That doesn't sound like a lot but would move Geno from his current 17th in the league to 5th in completion percentage. So whether it's Metcalf, Geno, or Waldron, that's a big problem with our passing game.

Toss that in with the fact that we're not targeting our tight ends very often, receivers that generally have a little higher reception/target ratios.

Having said that, I understand that it's necessary to throw those low percentage passes from time to time just to keep defenses honest.

[NorthHawk]

We aren’t seeing many passes in the middle of the field like we did early last year.
It’s much like we saw with Wilson under Bevel and Schottenheimer and the common denominator is Pete Carroll. It makes it easier for the Defense to plan and defend because they don’t have to worry much about the middle of the field. When we do throw up the middle, it’s often for a good gain.

[RiverDog]

We aren’t seeing many passes in the middle of the field like we did early last year.
It’s much like we saw with Wilson under Bevel and Schottenheimer and the common denominator is Pete Carroll. It makes it easier for the Defense to plan and defend because they don’t have to worry much about the middle of the field. When we do throw up the middle, it’s often for a good gain.

It would be helpful to see a target chart showing exactly what areas of the field we're throwing to compared to last season, but I'm under the same impression that you are, that we're not utilizing the middle of the field.

I'm not quite ready to put the blame all on Pete, although I am holding him accountable for this offense. No more throwing his coordinators under the bus. At some point, the buck has to stop with him, and I think we've reached that point.

[4XPIPS]

That's not necessarily on the QB. Many of Metcalf's routes are low percentage passes 20-30 yards up the sideline and into tight windows. I'm sure that Keenan Allen's targets are a little higher percentage.

I do think Geno has some culpability with uncatchable balls. I have seen plenty of deep passes from Geno to DK where the ball is floated at our right out of bounds, and there have been a handful of times where DK does come down with it but it's out of bounds. Not putting this all on Geno, and most likely not poor route running, but more like limited route running skills. I think Geno to DK is just a poor combination to warrant a vertical passing threat.

[4XPIPS]

Follow the Money, according to Spotrac, and yes this is about Receptions vs Targets, but since we are comparing top WRs in the league, might as well make your eyes water as to how much the Hawk's banked on DK.

2023 WR Top Guaranteed Money Rankings.

This is just the guaranteed money, and the rest of the contract are usually small bonuses, or structured money to alleviate cap space which then become dead money when a player is waived or traded away. The guaranteed money is by far the most important part of any player's contract whether it be signing bonus and/or salary.

1) Cooper Kupp $75m

2) Tyreek Hill $72.2m

3) Stefon Diggs $70m

4) Davante Adams $65.67m

5) Amari Cooper $60m

6) Dk Metcalf $58.2m

7) Deebo Samuel $58.1m

8) A.J. Brown $57.22m

9) Mike Evans $55m

10) Terry McLaurin $53.15m

tied at 15th) Lockett $37m

Of course Chase and Jefferson are rookie contracts, and will most likely crush those numbers when they are ready to contract up.

[RiverDog]

That's not necessarily on the QB. Many of Metcalf's routes are low percentage passes 20-30 yards up the sideline and into tight windows. I'm sure that Keenan Allen's targets are a little higher percentage.

I do think Geno has some culpability with uncatchable balls. I have seen plenty of deep passes from Geno to DK where the ball is floated at our right out of bounds, and there have been a handful of times where DK does come down with it but it's out of bounds. Not putting this all on Geno, and most likely not poor route running, but more like limited route running skills. I think Geno to DK is just a poor combination to warrant a vertical passing threat.

Oh, I agree. My only objection to your comments was the comparison to Keenan Allen.

The lack of coming down in bounds could be on the receiver, too. Metcalf is a physical specimen and IMO is so muscle bound that he doesn't have that gymnastic-like flexibility and body control that someone like Lockett has that would allow him to toe tap on the sidelines. But that's just an impression. To confirm it, we'd have to go back to each catch and analyze it to see if he could have stayed in bounds.

[RiverDog]

Just for the hell of it, I decided to check out Geno and Metcalf's current PFF player grades.

Geno is ranked 16th in his overall positional ranking and 15th in his passing ranking. Metcalf is ranked 28th in his overall positional ranking and 26th in his receiving ranking. I'm not sure if that means anything or not.

[RiverDog]

Follow the Money, according to Spotrac, and yes this is about Receptions vs Targets, but since we are comparing top WRs in the league, might as well make your eyes water as to how much the Hawk's banked on DK.

2023 WR Top Guaranteed Money Rankings.

This is just the guaranteed money, and the rest of the contract are usually small bonuses, or structured money to alleviate cap space which then become dead money when a player is waived or traded away. The guaranteed money is by far the most important part of any player's contract whether it be signing bonus and/or salary.

1) Cooper Kupp $75m

2) Tyreek Hill $72.2m

3) Stefon Diggs $70m

4) Davante Adams $65.67m

5) Amari Cooper $60m

6) Dk Metcalf $58.2m

7) Deebo Samuel $58.1m

8) A.J. Brown $57.22m

9) Mike Evans $55m

10) Terry McLaurin $53.15m

tied at 15th) Lockett $37m

Of course Chase and Jefferson are rookie contracts, and will most likely crush those numbers when they are ready to contract up.

Yeah, that's the really ugly part of this story. Whether it's Metcalf's fault or not, we're not getting our money's worth. His receiving numbers are all in the mid to lower 20's while his salary is in the top 10.

[4XPIPS]

Yeah, that's the really ugly part of this story. Whether it's Metcalf's fault or not, we're not getting our money's worth. His receiving numbers are all in the mid to lower 20's while his salary is in the top 10.

I agree 100% when you posted awhile back we should have never paid DK that kind of money. I believe his highlight play of running down All-Pro Safety Buddha Baker on a goaline INT boosted his perpetual value greatly that day. It was a heck of highlight play that will always live on as long as he wears the Hawk's uni.

[NorthHawk]

We have a history under Carroll whereby we get a good player (usually on Offense), then don't know how to use them or they don't fit what we are doing.
Graham is the biggest example, but add in Metcalf and have him run mainly deep routes into double coverage, and now we have JSN and aren't doing much of what he was really good at in College. Fant was brought in because he's a good receiving TE but we don't throw it much to TEs in a Peteball Offense. Waldron was brought in to give us a modern day Offense and Pete has apparently cut him off at the knees and put in a similar Offense as to what we had during Wilson's tenure.
Pete wants to throw to the sidelines because the sideline gives less opportunity for a turnover. Most of the passes are thrown such that either the receiver gets it or it falls harmlessly out of bounds.
Metcalf would do much better on another team that knows or permits the WRs to use the entire field along with deception and expanded route trees. As it is this Offense limits him to largely being a one trick pony.

[4XPIPS]

We have a history under Carroll whereby we get a good player (usually on Offense), then don't know how to use them or they don't fit what we are doing.
Graham is the biggest example, but add in Metcalf and have him run mainly deep routes into double coverage, and now we have JSN and aren't doing much of what he was really good at in College. Fant was brought in because he's a good receiving TE but we don't throw it much to TEs in a Peteball Offense. Waldron was brought in to give us a modern day Offense and Pete has apparently cut him off at the knees and put in a similar Offense as to what we had during Wilson's tenure.
Pete wants to throw to the sidelines because the sideline gives less opportunity for a turnover. Most of the passes are thrown such that either the receiver gets it or it falls harmlessly out of bounds.
Metcalf would do much better on another team that knows or permits the WRs to use the entire field along with deception and expanded route trees. As it is this Offense limits him to largely being a one trick pony.

Couldn't agree more. Name the last time DK's ran a jet sweep, or took an inside handoff between the tackles? These are the plays that Deebo Samuel makes all the time. I have even seen C. Lamb, a much smaller built WR, take inside handoffs on misdirection to create mismatches. DK is purely an X wide receiver.

[RiverDog]

We have a history under Carroll whereby we get a good player (usually on Offense), then don't know how to use them or they don't fit what we are doing.
Graham is the biggest example, but add in Metcalf and have him run mainly deep routes into double coverage, and now we have JSN and aren't doing much of what he was really good at in College. Fant was brought in because he's a good receiving TE but we don't throw it much to TEs in a Peteball Offense. Waldron was brought in to give us a modern day Offense and Pete has apparently cut him off at the knees and put in a similar Offense as to what we had during Wilson's tenure.
Pete wants to throw to the sidelines because the sideline gives less opportunity for a turnover. Most of the passes are thrown such that either the receiver gets it or it falls harmlessly out of bounds.
Metcalf would do much better on another team that knows or permits the WRs to use the entire field along with deception and expanded route trees. As it is this Offense limits him to largely being a one trick pony.

Couldn't agree more. Name the last time DK's ran a jet sweep, or took an inside handoff between the tackles? These are the plays that Deebo Samuel makes all the time. I have even seen C. Lamb, a much smaller built WR, take inside handoffs on misdirection to create mismatches. DK is purely an X wide receiver.

Metcalf also doesn't run back punts and kickoffs like Lockett did earlier in his career and like so many other wide receivers have done. He's not a great open field runner, and because of that, it limits the routes and roles he can be utilized in. His speed is straight ahead, like that play you referenced where he chased down Budda Baker. That's one of my beefs about him and the contract we gave him, that he's one dimensional. And I suspect that's one of the things that's hurting his efficiency as per this discussion. He can't be utilized on very many bubble screens, so it takes away those short, high percentage passes that other receivers can excel at and makes his reception/target ratio look bad.

[NorthHawk]

When was the last time DK ran a deep post or post corner route? If he's just running down the sideline, it's easy for defenders to predict and prepare for. We saw him in square in types of routes at the end of games doing well, but where are those routes earlier in the game when we aren't in desperation mode?

[RiverDog]

When was the last time DK ran a deep post or post corner route? If he's just running down the sideline, it's easy for defenders to predict and prepare for. We saw him in square in types of routes at the end of games doing well, but where are those routes earlier in the game when we aren't in desperation mode?

He's made some nice catches on shallow posts 10-15 yards deep where he can use his big frame to screen out a defender, but yeah, it's my impression that most of his routes tend to be of the sideline variety. Like I said earlier, what we need is a scatter chart that plots the area of the field where his targets are going rather than depending on our impressions which can be subject to our own personal biases.