by Agent 86 » Thu Jan 04, 2024 11:12 am
Well now, if this article doesn't reflect what the majority of us have said and feel right about now, I don't know what does. Michael-Shawn Dugar does a fantastic job covering the Hawks at The Athletic!
Dugar: Seahawks need a drastic change, no matter how this season ends
By Michael-Shawn Dugar
Jan 4, 2024
Five days after Seattle’s wild-card loss to the San Francisco 49ers in the 2022 playoffs, general manager John Schneider appeared on Seattle Sports radio and brought up a recent conversation with coach Pete Carroll in which the two Seahawks shot-callers agreed that their season ended at the hands of the biggest, fastest and most physical team in the NFL.
“And we gotta get back to that,” Schneider recalled saying. “No questions asked.”
Schneider was asked during that interview if he viewed the season as a success. The host prefaced the question by saying he believed it was, when viewed through the context of parting with Russell Wilson and Bobby Wagner, acquiring immediately impactful players in the 2022 NFL Draft and getting Pro Bowl quarterback play out of a guy once perceived as the worst starter in the NFL. In that context, Schneider agreed with the premise that Seattle had succeeded in what was a “transition season.”
“Probably a little bit too close to it yet to say, ‘Yes, that was amazing,’ but a lot of people did a lot of great things, so, yes, I’m proud of that,” Schneider said. “But we know we have a lot of work to do here.”
Schneider and Carroll were not satisfied with being a feisty seventh seed in the playoffs. They got a kick out of proving their detractors wrong, but internally, they believed they fell well short of their expectations. They dedicated the offseason to meeting those expectations.
One year later, the Seahawks are on track to not only fall short of their expectations but perhaps not even match last year’s results. For the second straight year, the Seahawks enter Week 18 with an 8-8 record. And just like last season, they need a win and a Green Bay Packers loss to sneak into the playoffs. The model created by The Athletic’s Austin Mock gives Seattle a 22.2 percent chance of making the postseason (the same model has the Packers’ odds at 70.7 percent).
But no matter what happens Sunday, the fact that Seattle finds itself in this same position reflects poorly on the entire operation, from the front office to the coaches and players. If last season was a success only when viewed through a certain lens, then this season is setting up to be an abject failure. It doesn’t require a crystal ball to foresee a scenario in which Schneider is soon on that same radio station lamenting a season that ended without a playoff berth, or with another first-round exit.
Either scenario would reveal a harsh truth about the state of the franchise: Barring drastic change, the Seahawks are set up to be perpetually mediocre, jogging in place while other teams — some of which are in their division — are much closer to the finish line.
In fairness, there’s a plausible path for Seattle to advance further than it did last season. The Seahawks are three-point favorites over the Arizona Cardinals. The Packers are identical favorites against a Chicago team that has been eliminated from the postseason. But the Bears are similar to the 2022 Detroit Lions — who beat Green Bay in the finale to put Seattle into the postseason — in that they’re playing well and will likely be motivated to finish the season strong.
And if the Seahawks get into the playoffs, they’ll face either the Lions, a team they’ve beaten in Detroit each of the last two seasons; the Dallas Cowboys, a team they just went toe-to-toe with at AT&T Stadium; or the Philadelphia Eagles, who have lost four of five games, including a Week 15 defeat in Seattle. Reaching the divisional round isn’t entirely out of the question.
But all that would do is set up another trip to Levi’s Stadium, a place where the Seahawks haven’t kept pace with Kyle Shanahan’s San Francisco 49ers, who are every bit the juggernaut they were last season. Seattle has lost five straight to San Francisco and has been outscored by 50 points in the three road games. In those games, the Seahawks have averaged 1.26 points per drive, the same mark as this year’s Carolina Panthers, and they’ve allowed the 49ers to average 3.0 points per drive. For context, that would rank as the fourth-best offense of the 21st century, trailing only the 2007 New England Patriots, 2018 Kansas City Chiefs and 2020 Packers.
There’s no reason to believe another trip to Santa Clara would produce a positive outcome for Seattle.
The Seahawks put in the work to avoid this situation. It just wasn’t enough.
On offense, the Seahawks re-upped with Geno Smith, a guy they felt could lead them to the promised land with another year in the system and a supporting cast playing well around him. They signed veteran center Evan Brown, drafted receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the first round and added running back Zach Charbonnet in the second. They even stumbled upon an undrafted gem in rookie wideout Jake Bobo.
Seattle hoped to not only have another year of efficient offense — the Seahawks were ninth in points per drive and 15th in EPA per play — but it anticipated being much better situationally, both on third down and in the red zone. In 2022, Seattle ranked 20th in third-down conversion rate (37.8 percent) and 28th in red zone efficiency (47.3 percent). This year, the Seahawks are 25th on third down (35.4 percent) and 24th in the red zone (49 percent). The Seahawks do have an efficient offense — 12th in points per drive, 10th in EPA per play — but they’re deficient in the same critical areas. Offensive line injuries played a significant role this season, but the results are what they are.
On defense, the only notable holdovers up front were Uchenna Nwosu, Boye Mafe and Darrell Taylor. Wagner returned to replace Cody Barton. Julian Love was signed as insurance for the injured Jamal Adams, and Devon Witherspoon was drafted at No. 5 to elevate the secondary, either as an outside cornerback or a nickel. Defensive tackle Leonard Williams was acquired midseason in exchange for a second-round pick. Quandre Diggs and Riq Woolen are Pro Bowlers. On paper, the talent was there.
After ranking 26th and 25th, respectively, in points per drive and EPA per play in 2022, the Seahawks rank 29th in both categories this season. They’ve improved at limiting explosive plays — 11.9 percent last year compared to 10.5 this season — but the Seahawks are once again among the worst in the league doing what they consider priority No. 1: stopping the run.
Seattle hired new assistant coaches, swapped players in and out and tweaked the scheme. However the on-field product, on both sides of the ball, is just as flawed as it was last season. The offense once again struggled to find an identity for much of the season. The defense is regressing.
It’s nearly impossible to assess the Seahawks through that lens and view Sunday’s outcome as anything other than irrelevant in the grand scheme, at least as it pertains to getting back to being one of the biggest, fastest and most physical teams in the league.
This team feels even less competitive than previous Seahawks squads that weren’t championship contenders. Barring a 39-point win over Arizona on Sunday, Seattle will finish the season with a negative point differential for only the second time in the Carroll-Schneider era. In 2010, Carroll and Schneider’s first season, the Seahawks won the division with a 7-9 record and a minus-97 point differential. That team upset the defending champs in the “Beast Quake” game but was no match for the Bears in the divisional round.
If the 2023 Seahawks follow a similar path, it will mark nine straight seasons falling short of the conference championship round. For some franchises, consistently having something to play for in Weeks 17 and 18 is worth commending. It’s just enough to generate offseason optimism, keep fans engaged year-round and keep butts in seats throughout the season.
But if the Seahawks exist in that space for the better part of a decade despite working toward and aspiring for more, how much longer should this status quo be accepted? And how can they get out of this funk? Is it time to tear down the roster? Should Carroll’s or Schneider’s jobs be at stake? Is there another way?
Those are the questions Seattle must answer, regardless of the results this weekend.