Rebuilding The Hawks: Trade Metcalf?

[RiverDog]

Interesting article by Mike Salk of Brock and Salk. He's saying EXACTLY what I've been harping on for the past several years: Quit dumping resources into wide receivers and running backs. Trade DK Metcalf. Here's the guts of the article:

How did they (Chiefs) do it? By drastically limiting their expenses at the offensive skill positions.

New ESPN Radio morning host Evan Cohen had this observation following the game, posting this on X:

"I totally get the sentiment that the Chiefs won in a down year for them but I would argue they are built exactly the right way. HOF QB, HOF TE, elite defense. No $ spent on WR's / RB's. Perfectly done IMO."

He’s right. Essentially, the Chiefs built around their star quarterback by eschewing the traditional wisdom of finding him top-tier weaponry and instead spent their resources on the parts of the game he can’t affect: the defense and the offensive line. They counted on Mahomes’s skill to make the “pedestrian” skill position players better. Obviously, it worked.

The Seahawks are built very differently. They have spent their resources on the exact positions KC ignored. Both teams have the quarterback at the top of their spending list, but that’s where things change.

Offensively, the Seahawks are spending more than $40 million a year on their two starting receivers, not to mention used a first-round pick on Jaxon Smith-Njigba and two second-round selections on running backs. (Edit: And don't forget about our first pick in the 2021draft, Dee Eskridge) DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are the highest paid non-quarterbacks on the offensive side of the ball.

By contrast, the two most expensive Chiefs after Patrick Mahomes are guard Joe Thuney and tackle Jawaan Taylor. And they invested heavily on defense in the past two drafts.

So what should Seahawks general manager John Schneider and new coach Mike Macdonald do? Certainly, they can stick with their current approach and try to make small changes along the margins. This would make sense especially if they believe the new coaching staff can optimize some of the players they already have on the line of scrimmage.

But what if they want to shake things up? What if they want to really rejigger the construction of this roster? My suggestion is that it would work best if they traded DK Metcalf.

Remember, the Chiefs had a decision to make just two seasons ago with Tyreek Hill, a receiver generally believed to be superior to Metcalf. Rather than pay him, they traded him to Miami for five draft picks. They’ve turned that trade into cornerback Trent McDuffie, receivers Skyy Moore and Rashee Rice, tackle Darian Kinnard, and defensive tackle Keondre Coburn, and they still have one more pick to go.

Since that trade, they have won two Super Bowls while going 7-0 in the playoffs.

The Seahawks’ roster has some major needs. With the No. 16 pick in this year’s draft, they could certainly use help on the offensive line, on the defensive edge, at linebacker, and – depending on your point of view – at quarterback. They currently don’t select a second time until No. 78 in the third round.

I don’t know exactly what Metcalf would be worth, but the A.J. Brown trade would be a good starting point. During the 2022 offseason, he went from Tennessee to Philly for the No. 18 and No. 101 picks (a first- and third-rounder). Metcalf might not be quite the player Brown is, but he has already gotten his money, which means the acquiring team wouldn’t need to pay his signing bonus nor risk a situation in which he walks away after one year. Could that make his value something akin to a first- and second-round pick?

The Seahawks’ roster has some major needs. With the No. 16 pick in this year’s draft, they could certainly use help on the offensive line, on the defensive edge, at linebacker, and – depending on your point of view – at quarterback. They currently don’t select a second time until No. 78 in the third round.

I don’t know exactly what Metcalf would be worth, but the A.J. Brown trade would be a good starting point. During the 2022 offseason, he went from Tennessee to Philly for the No. 18 and No. 101 picks (a first- and third-rounder). Metcalf might not be quite the player Brown is, but he has already gotten his money, which means the acquiring team wouldn’t need to pay his signing bonus nor risk a situation in which he walks away after one year. Could that make his value something akin to a first- and second-round pick?

I think DK Metcalf is a phenomenal talent and a joy to watch. But he plays a position that is replenished seemingly every season in the draft – wide receivers are everywhere! And it would help them go after the positions where its harder to find top talent and which would arguably help them win more games.

The Seahawks are a good team with a good roster. If they want to be a great team with a great roster, they might need to take some chances to make it happen. Trading Metcalf would certainly be risky, but the rewards could certainly justify the gamble.

https://sports.mynorthwest.com/1772695/ ... ks-roster/

[Aseahawkfan]

I wouldn't trade Metcalf myself. Given JSN is good and Tyler has some years left, he is expendable for the right price. We are missing a 2nd round pick. I'm thinking John wants to ensure MacDonald has what he needs to implement his defense.

[RiverDog]

I wouldn't trade Metcalf myself. Given JSN is good and Tyler has some years left, he is expendable for the right price. We are missing a 2nd round pick. I'm thinking John wants to ensure MacDonald has what he needs to implement his defense.

If we get a good offer, ie a 1st round pick plus, then by all means, I'd trade Metcalf. Not because he isn't productive or because he's a penalty machine or that I have a personal dislike of the man, but because of the position he plays. And as you said, we have JSN on board, who still has 3 more seasons on his rookie contract, and we have Lockett that still has a little tread on him, and we have Jake Bobo. We're top heavy at that position while we have bigger fish to fry at others. We need to improve our offensive line and we need to rebuild our defense.

[TriCitySam]

Because of accelerated bonuses, a trade costs, not saves, cap space in '24. To save cap $, it should be Lockett (age 32) and Dissley. plus with a big WR draft, value is questionable.

[MackStrongIsMyHero]

The team needs LB, DL, and OL help (especially if Lucas can't get right) and are also looking for a QBotF, so I'm thinking they'll pull the trigger for the right offer. Hopefully it's just a one step back, two steps forward type of deal.

I would think a team that missed the playoffs but thinks it will compete soon would be ideal. The bears hold the no. 1 and no. 9 pick. Maybe they think Fields needs a legit target. Metcalf for No. 9 would be hard to turn down.

EtA: that might not be realistic. A.J. Brown went to the eagles for No. 18 and No. 101. Maybe a team like the Jaguars, though they are light on cap space. or the Colts; they have plenty of cap space to take on Metcalf and hold the No. 15 pick.

[RiverDog]

The team needs LB, DL, and OL help (especially if Lucas can't get right) and are also looking for a QBotF, so I'm thinking they'll pull the trigger for the right offer. Hopefully it's just a one step back, two steps forward type of deal.

I would think a team that missed the playoffs but thinks it will compete soon would be ideal. The bears hold the no. 1 and no. 9 pick. Maybe they think Fields needs a legit target. Metcalf for No. 9 would be hard to turn down.

If the Bears offered us the #9 overall for Metcalf, I'd jump on it like a chicken on a June bug. Coupled with our #16 overall, we'd have some firepower to move up and grab one of the top QB prospects.

But here's another thought: As you said, the Bears have the #1 overall pick in this year's draft and there's talk that they may move away from Fields, so how about a swap, Metcalf for Fields? I'm not necessarily advocating it, but it does suggest an interesting possibility.

[MackStrongIsMyHero]

If the Bears offered us the #9 overall for Metcalf, I'd jump on it like a chicken on a June bug. Coupled with our #16 overall, we'd have some firepower to move up and grab one of the top QB prospects.

But here's another thought: As you said, the Bears have the #1 overall pick in this year's draft and there's talk that they may move away from Fields, so how about a swap, Metcalf for Fields? I'm not necessarily advocating it, but it does suggest an interesting possibility.

I'm guessing they'll get what they can for Fields from another team and use No. 1 or No. 9 for a QB. I'd much rather get draft capital for Metcalf.

I also edited my post; I was researching draft picks vs cap space for what I considered close to competing teams while you made your post. If A.J. Brown only brough a No. 18 and No. 101, I'm not hopeful the Bears offer up No. 9.

[c_hawkbob]

We just informed Geno that we're keeping him and his salary becomes guaranteed today. Macdonald has said it's a priority to keep our QB comfortable. We aren't going to trade away his best target. Besides, with Geno's guarantee being so (relatively) cap friendly for a starting QB I don't think we'll need DK's cap savings.

[MackStrongIsMyHero]

Devil's advocate in me says that keeping Geno instead of cutting him means other teams have to offer a trade to get Geno. Geno has value as a starter in a league where there aren't 32 starting caliber QBs. Not saying they are aiming to trade him, just that they wanted to be prepared to entertain offers. Should none come, they are really no worse off.

My guess is both Geno and DK will be Seahawks this coming season.

[RiverDog]

We just informed Geno that we're keeping him and his salary becomes guaranteed today. Macdonald has said it's a priority to keep our QB comfortable. We aren't going to trade away his best target. Besides, with Geno's guarantee being so (relatively) cap friendly for a starting QB I don't think we'll need DK's cap savings.

Devil's advocate in me says that keeping Geno instead of cutting him means other teams have to offer a trade to get Geno. Geno has value as a starter in a league where there aren't 32 starting caliber QBs. Not saying they are aiming to trade him, just that they wanted to be prepared to entertain offers. Should none come, they are really no worse off.

My guess is both Geno and DK will be Seahawks this coming season.

I agree with Mack. Letting Geno collect his $12.7M, although an indication, doesn't directly translate into him being on the roster come September.

As far as Metcalf goes, I don't see anything in this development with Geno that would make a trade less likely. But like Mack, I think that the odds are that both will be on the roster on opening day.

[NorthHawk]

I'm not so sure about Geno making it to the start of the season. We are already over the Cap and he will cost $31M or thereabouts so the question that management has to decide is do we pay that for an aging QB or do we cut our losses and go with another, cheaper QB? With any decision, comes with the determination of whether they think that the difference between say Lock at about $10 to $14 M and Geno at $31M is worth any increase in productivity. As well, we may draft a QB and if that is the plan then a cheaper veteran QB to start might be in the cards as the rookie learns of the NFL and how this game is played.
Teams that might trade for Geno include Pittsburgh, Raiders, Falcons, and maybe Vikings if they don't re-sign Cousins.

Regarding trading Metcalf? Not when we are going to bring in an Offense that isn't hamstrung by Pete's conservative philosophies.
With Lockett in the twilight of his career we would suddenly be down 2 WRs in what is expected to be more of a passing type of Offense. Not a wise move.

[c_hawkbob]

Actually I believe we've got $5m+ in cap room presently. After the post June 1 cuts we'll have a much clearer picture of our actual cap situation.

[NorthHawk]

Actually I believe we've got $5m+ in cap room presently. After the post June 1 cuts we'll have a much clearer picture of our actual cap situation.

OvertheCap and Spotrac disagree. One says we have $5M in Cap room and the other says we are $11M or something near that over. Regardless it's very tight.

Maybe trade Geno instead and cut Adams and Diggs to start the process of clearing Cap space.

[c_hawkbob]

Actually I believe we've got $5m+ in cap room presently. After the post June 1 cuts we'll have a much clearer picture of our actual cap situation.

OvertheCap and Spotrac disagree. One says we have $5M in Cap room and the other says we are $11M or something near that over. Regardless it's very tight.

Maybe trade Geno instead and cut Adams and Diggs to start the process of clearing Cap space.

I'm guessing that one is as of June 1 and the other is not. Like I said, I'll wait till then to even think about it. They're all looking at the same numbers, just calculating differently.

Besides, I don't bother with cap cutting scenarios anymore, they always seem to get the cap room they need by other means than I ever come up with anyway. It's just not something I sweat now.

[NorthHawk]

I find the Cap stuff interesting as it materially affects what we can do in FA or with re-signing our own players.
I think the difference is because one of them is taking into account the expected cost of the draft class which would be about $16M.

[River_Dog]

This rumor about Metcalf just won't go away. At some point, you have to wonder if there's any truth to it. We dismissed similar rumors about a Russell Wilson trade, many of us rationalizing them as nothing but a bunch sports writers looking for hits on their sites so they could sell more advertising, until it actually happened. Where there's smoke, there's fire?

Analyst Examines Potential Steelers Trade Package for DK Metcalf

John Buhler of FanSided through out a wild trade scenario for DK Metcalf that has the Steelers giving up George Pickens, a 2025 first-round pick, a 2025 third-round pick, a 2026 second-round pick and a 2026 fourth-round pick.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/an ... 88a6&ei=28

Although I doubt that anyone would pony up that much, if someone were to offer us that kind of capital or something similar, I'd take it in a heartbeat. It's much like what the Chiefs got for Tyreek Hill, and you can't say that they fared too badly after that deal went down. A trade like this one could land us that QBOTF we've been dreaming about.

[c_hawkbob]

That's not even a rumor. That's a fan 'what if' fantasy trade scenario. Those will never go away with a talent like DK.

[Oly]

The Hawks need more star playmakers, not fewer. RD, I know your views on WR value, but it's a passing league and unless you have a head coach who can ensure stability of scheming guys open, I think teams need elite pass catchers to be elite. If we had the luxury of having a star QB on the roster and money was tight, you obviously prioritize paying the QB over the WR (like NE did for years...although they did get Moss for a time). But unless you know that the draft pick gets you on the board to pick your favorite elite QB, I don't think trading star playmakers for draft potential is a good idea.

[River_Dog]

That's not even a rumor. That's a fan 'what if' fantasy trade scenario. Those will never go away with a talent like DK.

You can dismiss it if you like just as you did the Russell Wilson trade rumors, but IMO it's a little more than just a fan 'what if' fantasy trade scenario. From the article:

According to Benjamin Allbright of KOA Radio in Colorado, the Steelers have made calls to multiple teams in hopes of prying away a No. 1 receiver. Those players reportedly include DK Metcalf of the Seattle Seahawks, Brandon Aiyuk of the San Francisco 49ers and Courtland Sutton of the Denver Broncos.

I don't know how much truth there is to these rumors, but they don't just pop up out of nowhere, and this isn't one of those "sources close to the..." type of article. It actually attributes it to a named person. My guess is that there are at least some discussions going on that involves Metcalf.

If we get an offer anywhere near what the Chiefs got for Tyreek Hill, I'd jump on it like a chicken on a June bug. At some point, we're going to need a QBOTF, and we won't have the draft capital to get one unless we do something bold such as a trade like this one. The Chiefs were no worse off without Hill than they were with him.

[River_Dog]

The Hawks need more star playmakers, not fewer. RD, I know your views on WR value, but it's a passing league and unless you have a head coach who can ensure stability of scheming guys open, I think teams need elite pass catchers to be elite. If we had the luxury of having a star QB on the roster and money was tight, you obviously prioritize paying the QB over the WR (like NE did for years...although they did get Moss for a time). But unless you know that the draft pick gets you on the board to pick your favorite elite QB, I don't think trading star playmakers for draft potential is a good idea.

So tell me how the Chiefs made out after they traded their star playmaker? Tyreek Hill was a helluva lot more of a playmaker than DK Metcalf.

As I said above, we're going to need a QBOTF at some point. We can't just keep kicking the can down the road and expect to break out of this .500ish one-and-done mediocre teams that has defined our franchise for the past 8 years. Even without Metcalf, we're still very strong at that position, with JSN, Jake Bobo, and a few more years of tread on the tires with Tyler Lockett. Metcalf is one of the few players on our roster that could fetch that kind of draft capital and would be the least painful to lose.

[Aseahawkfan]

I'd take some more picks for DK right now. I like DK. But right now I feel bad his best years are being wasted in Seattle during a rebuild when we could mutually benefit by trading him for some draft capital to another team farther along in the process. And extra first round pick would set us up well for going after a QB in future drafts and give some trading ammo should we need it or just set us up for more quality prospects.

[Oly]

So tell me how the Chiefs made out after they traded their star playmaker? Tyreek Hill was a helluva lot more of a playmaker than DK Metcalf.

That's why I emphasized this part:

I think teams need elite pass catchers to be elite. If we had the luxury of having a star QB on the roster and money was tight, you obviously prioritize paying the QB over the WR.

When you have Mahomes, you can get away with that. But it's important to note that even this isn't always true, as Montana had Rice, Manning had Harrison, Brady had Gronk, and even Mahomes has Kelce. The greats often had one elite pass catcher. That could be a WR or TE, but as the Hawks don't have a great TE we should look at the WRs. And as I note below, we disagree about whether we have another WR on the roster near as good as DK.

Next:

As I said above, we're going to need a QBOTF at some point. We can't just keep kicking the can down the road and expect to break out of this .500ish one-and-done mediocre teams that has defined our franchise for the past 8 years.

On the QB part, I 100% agree. That's why I carved out an exception if DK gets the Hawks their QBOTF:

But unless you know that the draft pick gets you on the board to pick your favorite elite QB, I don't think trading star playmakers for draft potential is a good idea.

On our receivers you said:

Even without Metcalf, we're still very strong at that position, with JSN, Jake Bobo, and a few more years of tread on the tires with Tyler Lockett. Metcalf is one of the few players on our roster that could fetch that kind of draft capital and would be the least painful to lose.

I don't quite agree on the quality of the WR room outside of DK. Lockett's elite days are over. Bobo's career line is 19 catches for less than 200 yards. JSN has shown legit flashes, but (1) he was a rookie, and the sophomore slump is real so I don't want to count on him yet, and (2) he works in the slot and hasn't shown that he can reliably win contested 1-on-1s. That's what DK can do, and what I expect from an elite pass catcher.

With DK, I think the WR corps is elite and can cover up for mediocre QB play. But I don't think Lockett, JSN, and Bobo are going to scare any DCs, certainly not with Geno throwing to them.

The only way I think the Hawks would be justified in trading their best offensive weapon is if it gets an equal talent at the more important position: QB. If trading DK is needed to make that happen, then I'd be for it. Otherwise, I think he should stay. I can see the Hawks being good in 2-3 years, and pairing our QBOTF with DK (behind a solid OL) is the right way to build the offense.