Anyone else buying stocks?

[Aseahawkfan]

This corona virus panic is really dropping some stocks into serious value territory. All information we have is this is little more than a very bad respiratory infection at worst and asymptomatic for most people, yet the world is treating this like the end times or ebola.

I hope some of you are taking advantage of the idiocy to purchase some quality companies at a bargain basement rate. I haven't seen prices like this in years.

I think I'm going to pick up some BAC tomorrow, maybe some more FB. This is unbelievable.

If this is how people react for a common type of virus that isn't even that potent, I can't imagine how they'll react if we get hit by something really bad.

[RiverDog]

Don't buy any Royal Caribbean stock.

I let my investment counselor make those decisions. Most of my money is in long term bonds and other stable investments, but we do play a certain amount on the stock market. I checked this morning and I'm down about 4-5% when compared to the end of the 4th quarter of 2019. I'm thankful that I'm in the boat that I'm in as if I were still working my 401K's/IRA's probably would have taken a 20-25% hit by now.

I'm no expert, but I don't think that we've seen this thing bottom out yet. This could push our economy into a recession if we're not there already, and it's going to take some time for consumers to get active again and for businesses to bounce back. People aren't going to start moving around and buying products and services for several months. MLB has already told their teams to be prepared for historically low attendance. The normally busy vacation season is going to take a big dip. Add to that the fact that it's an election year and there's a ton of uncertainty, particularly if Sanders wins the nomination. We could see the market drop another 10-15% before we start rebounding and it could take years before we recover all of the losses. I don't think there's any hurry to buy stocks but I do agree that it's going to be a once in a decade buying opportunity.

A lot of this is being driven by irrational fear and over reaction, but the government and other health officials are telling people to stay away from big crowds, particularly if you're over 60 like I am. So we'll see. I'm not at all panicked but I have changed a few of my plans. I was planning on driving to Seattle to watch the XFL Dragons and later to meet my brother for a Mariners game, but that's all on hold for now. I have a trip to Iceland planned for June which should go on as planned. You'd be challenged to find a country as isolated as Iceland and we only have one airport layover coming and going. So far, there hasn't been any confirmed cases within about a 75 mile radius of where I live.

My wife is thankful she's retired. Ironically, she worked for the same nursing home company, Life Care, that's the epicenter of the crisis in our area. I have a daughter that works as a charge nurse at an immediate care clinic but I haven't talked to her in the past couple of weeks.

[Aseahawkfan]

I heard Life Center was pretty terrible. Someone said they had their parents there, but removed them due to the poor conditions. It is smart to stay away from the sickness if elderly, though you sound like your health is good enough you'd likely be fine. Best not to court disaster.

I doubt a recession comes any time soon. This is a short-term correction driven by fear.

There is literally nowhere else to put your money but stocks or property given the low interest rates. Bonds are terrible. The low rate won't even match inflation which makes buying bonds barely better than keeping cash. If you put all your money into cash savings, you're basically costing yourself the rate of inflation as your cash savings drops in value due to inflation. Thus anyone looking for any type of real yield with the taxes and interest rates as low as they are has to push into stocks, which will inflate them after this temporary economic shock.

Right now you could borrow money and put it into stocks to make free money, which many traders are doing. If you borrow money at 2% and invest in a dividend stock for a 6% return you are making free money.

That's why I started jumping in. The entire stock market has been derisked due to the corona virus. No one can call a bottom, but the valuations right now are extremely attractive for many industries for anyone with even a year outlook looking for a swing trade. For long-term traders these valuations, especially in banks, airlines, and many associated stocks will be able to make a hefty sum if they have cash ready to deploy. Drops like this happen very rarely. I highly recommend anyone with cash on the sidelines hop into stocks after reading the corona virus data and realizing it is a short-term mild sickness with limited long-term danger and make some money off human stupidity and fear.

This is one of those once every 5 to 10 year opportunities to buy into a rising market in a low unemployment, low interest rate, and low tax rate environment due to a short-term risk environment.

[RiverDog]

I heard Life Center was pretty terrible. Someone said they had their parents there, but removed them due to the poor conditions. It is smart to stay away from the sickness if elderly, though you sound like your health is good enough you'd likely be fine. Best not to court disaster.

They're heavily regulated by the state and the results are published. The problem is that Medicare is paying for less and less and nursing homes are strapped so they are cutting corners where they can. As a nurse, my wife had 30 residents assigned to her to care for. That's an average of about 15 minutes per resident per shift, all of them requiring meds, being fed dinner, bathing, dressing, treating bedsores, et al, and charting all their activity. And if one of them fell, all hell broke loose as they had to notify the doctor, the family, their superiors, do an accident report, etc. Needless to say, she seldom got to take any breaks. Life Care quit making contributions to her 401K a few years before she retired. It's a bad business to be in.

I doubt a recession comes any time soon. This is a short-term correction driven by fear.

Whether or not this pushes us into a full scale recession is debatable. What's not debatable is that we're going to see a significant slow down and that it's going to take many months for the economy to recover. People quit traveling, they quit buying. My former business, processed potatoes (French fries) is going to suffer. Airlines are already cutting routes and warning of layoffs. That's why the Saudis were so quick to cut oil prices. They see this as an opportunity to deal a blow to domestic production here in the US.

This is one of those once every 5 to 10 year opportunities to buy into a rising market in a low unemployment, low interest rate, and low tax rate environment due to a short-term risk environment.

Agreed. But I don't think we've seen this thing bottom out yet. IMO the Dow will lose another 3,000 points before it turns around.

[Aseahawkfan]

Agreed. But I don't think we've seen this thing bottom out yet. IMO the Dow will lose another 3,000 points before it turns around.

3000 more points? You calling that bottom? I'm still sitting on a lot of powder. 3000 points would work for me. I got a lot of bargains now, 3000 more points would literally be a twice in a lifetime drop similar to 2008 without the extreme economic damage given it wouldn't be caused by a crap ton of bad mortgages. That would be the Dow back to late 2018 during that other big hit or back to 2017 levels. I missed that 2018 drop, so that would be extremely helpful if that happened.

I don't think it will get much lower myself unless the corona virus is way worse than current information indicates. There is not a real reason for a severe drop. The loss of earnings is already priced in for most companies with the current drop. It Business would have to held up for far longer to further erode earnings. This big sell off was due to the predicted loss of earnings.

I'll be watching close. 3000 more points would be a dream.

[RiverDog]

3000 more points? You calling that bottom? I'm still sitting on a lot of powder. 3000 points would work for me. I got a lot of bargains now, 3000 more points would literally be a twice in a lifetime drop similar to 2008 without the extreme economic damage given it wouldn't be caused by a crap ton of bad mortgages. That would be the Dow back to late 2018 during that other big hit or back to 2017 levels. I missed that 2018 drop, so that would be extremely helpful if that happened.

I don't think it will get much lower myself unless the corona virus is way worse than current information indicates. There is not a real reason for a severe drop. The loss of earnings is already priced in for most companies with the current drop. It Business would have to held up for far longer to further erode earnings. This big sell off was due to the predicted loss of earnings.

I'll be watching close. 3000 more points would be a dream.

I was being conservative. The point is that I don't think now is the time to buy. There's more values to be had this summer.

You're out of my league regarding stocks, but I do know that the Chiefs home is in Missouri.

[Aseahawkfan]

Your football knowledge is better than mine, RD. I freely admit it.

Here is a nice discussion of the disease by real professionals and not reporters looking for a story:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pnk8DuAly9Y

[RiverDog]

Your football knowledge is better than mine, RD. I freely admit it.

Here is a nice discussion of the disease by real professionals and not reporters looking for a story:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pnk8DuAly9Y

Actually knowing that Kansas City is in Missouri (acknowledging that across the river is a much smaller Kansas City KN) is as much about geography as it is football.

Good info in the link about the coronavirus. I chatted with my daughter last night. She's a nurse in an urgent care clinic in Spokane. They've had to adapt a whole new protocol in handling patients. Anyone that so much as coughs or reports a cough, they have to put a mask on them, hustle their ass out of the lobby and into an examining room, take their vitals, do a swab, and send them out the back door. They're doing a lot of overtime, working on their days off.

But getting back to the topic. This coronavirus scare has the potential of sending us into a recession. There's unquestionably a slow down that's going to last at least through the summer vacation season. Many companies that feed off of the travel and tourism industry can't ramp up production in a matter of weeks or in some cases, months, once demand starts to rise again. My former company, for example, that supplies products for resteraunts whose business is heavily dependent on travel, has a production timeline that is 2 years long. Plus toss in the uncertainty of an election year and many will be reluctant to start building an inventory in anticipation of a recovery that may or may not happen right away.

A lot of people in the financial world have been predicting a recession in 2020 anyway, so this could be the straw that breaks the camel's back.

[Aseahawkfan]

Actually knowing that Kansas City is in Missouri (acknowledging that across the river is a much smaller Kansas City KN) is as much about geography as it is football.

Good info in the link about the coronavirus. I chatted with my daughter last night. She's a nurse in an urgent care clinic in Spokane. They've had to adapt a whole new protocol in handling patients. Anyone that so much as coughs or reports a cough, they have to put a mask on them, hustle their ass out of the lobby and into an examining room, take their vitals, do a swab, and send them out the back door. They're doing a lot of overtime, working on their days off.

But getting back to the topic. This coronavirus scare has the potential of sending us into a recession. There's unquestionably a slow down that's going to last at least through the summer vacation season. Many companies that feed off of the travel and tourism industry can't ramp up production in a matter of weeks or in some cases, months, once demand starts to rise again. My former company, for example, that supplies products for resteraunts whose business is heavily dependent on travel, has a production timeline that is 2 years long. Plus toss in the uncertainty of an election year and many will be reluctant to start building an inventory in anticipation of a recovery that may or may not happen right away.

A lot of people in the financial world have been predicting a recession in 2020 anyway, so this could be the straw that breaks the camel's back.

I talked about this with a guy from Missouri a while back. There are two cities named Kansas City. One in Kansas and one in Missouri. So not a sure bet to know.

[RiverDog]

I talked about this with a guy from Missouri a while back. There are two cities named Kansas City. One in Kansas and one in Missouri. So not a sure bet to know.

That's true, and they're just across the river from each other. But KC Missouri is about 4 times bigger and has the lion's share of the metro area. When "Kansas City" is mention, most people automatically think Missouri as the stadiums, arenas, and airport are all in Missouri. It's similar to getting outside Washington and Oregon and telling people you're from Vancouver. They'll automatically think Canada as a default.

I don't want to belabor the point any further. I'll stand by my assertation that Trump is showing multiple and frequent signs of mental decline and his Kansas City blooper is one of many scores of examples. Do I think that alone disqualifies him of holding the office? No. Do I think it's a factor in an overall assessment of his being unfit for office? Yes.

[Aseahawkfan]

That's true, and they're just across the river from each other. But KC Missouri is about 4 times bigger and has the lion's share of the metro area. When "Kansas City" is mention, most people automatically think Missouri as the stadiums, arenas, and airport are all in Missouri. It's similar to getting outside Washington state and telling people you're from Vancouver and they'll automatically think Canada.

I don't want to belabor the point any further. I'll stand by my assertation that Trump is showing multiple and frequent signs of mental decline and his Kansas City blooper is one of many scores of examples. Do I think that alone disqualifies him of holding the office? No. Do I think it's something that's part of an overall assessment of his being unfit for office? Yes.

Trump seems like the same guy he's always been. Not sure why you buy into all the media noted gaffes, when he was just as likely to have them in his 40s as he is now because he doesn't care and probably never has.

[RiverDog]

Trump seems like the same guy he's always been. Not sure why you buy into all the media noted gaffes, when he was just as likely to have them in his 40s as he is now because he doesn't care and probably never has.

Do you have some examples of gaffes he made when he was in his 40's that are on par with putting Paris in Germany or Colorado on the Mexican border?

If you want to claim that he's not experiencing an age related mental decline, then there's only one other explanation: He's a moron.

[Hawktawk]

Good luck with this stock market. And its not realistic to say Trump hasn't experienced severe decline in his mental acuity compared to a couple of decades ago,. The guy was kind of witty, glib, verbally capable in the day. Compare any speech or comments on film for 20 years ago till today. The decline to about a 4th grade vocabulary and delivery is undeniable. The pathological lying and narcissism is indeed how its always been.

[RiverDog]

Back to the OP. Stock futures tanked after Trump's speech last night. Investors aren't reassured with the administration's response to the financial aspect of the crisis, with only a vague reference to the possibility of a payroll tax holiday, a measure that would surely not get out of the House. The beating Wall Street took yesterday will only continue until investors see some sort of positive measures being taken.

We're officially in bear market territory, with stocks down over 20% since the start of the quarter. Personally, I'm extremely lucky as I have very little in stocks. I just added up my losses in my IRA's and I'm down 6.5% since the first of the year. If I were still working, it would take 5 years to make up in a 401k that which we've lost over the past few weeks. The last time something like this happened was 9/11.

Although it seems pretty callous to be talking about money during a health crisis, we can't ignore the financial impact this event is having on the worldwide economy. At this point, I'm convinced that we're going into recession, if we're not already in one, and may take a year or longer to rebound.

[Aseahawkfan]

Good luck with this stock market. And its not realistic to say Trump hasn't experienced severe decline in his mental acuity compared to a couple of decades ago,. The guy was kind of witty, glib, verbally capable in the day. Compare any speech or comments on film for 20 years ago till today. The decline to about a 4th grade vocabulary and delivery is undeniable. The pathological lying and narcissism is indeed how its always been.

The reason this sickness starts off in a country seeming so terrible is because the worst cases are the first to be diagnosed because they are the most serious cases. All the mild cases aren't found until much later when people get scared and start getting tested for symptoms that they would not even usually go to the doctor for. Then you start to see a huge spike in cases as people get paranoid and the death rate starts to drop substantially. I still believe they aren't even close to the real number of cases because many are still walking around with it with mild to no symptoms.

This is the best time to buy if you have money. I"m dollar cost averaging down and building up positions in good stocks.After this is over, where do you have to go to make money investing? Nowhere. Bonds are terrible for the low interest rates. You can do property if you have the money, knowledge, and time to manage it. Savings? You know inflation kills savings.

Once this corona virus panic calms, this juiced economy will just run the market back up as the money has nowhere else to go. We'll probably take a quarter or two of terrible earnings, which is getting priced in right now. Then things will pick back up and the economy will run with super low interest rates, possibly a payroll cut, low corporate taxes, and a generally powerfully juiced economy looking to get back on track.

I want to see where the corona virus lands at this point. You have some of these infectious disease experts talking 50 to 100 million sick even with slowing cases in China at about 80,000 documented cases and some saying in the tens to hundreds of thousands and some not even believing its that big a deal. We'll see where it falls.

Given the available information, my feeling is its a mild virus that humans are panicking over because they always view this on an individual level feeling like they'll be the one to die even though it is highly unlikely. There are likely thousands or more of undocumented cases that have likely already recovered in America. That's why we saw some of those care centers in Washington and other places get hit because they were walking around with this mild virus that hits certain people worse. If we had been testing prior, we'd probably already be in the tens of thousands.

But we will see. I am moving very slowly buying into good companies in key sectors getting hammered like oil, travel, and finance.

[RiverDog]

Yesterday was the single largest point drop in the DJIA in over 30 years, dropping nearly 3,000 points, and that's despite the Fed's cutting interest rates to zero. The economy is a runaway train heading for a washed out bridge. I'm afraid that we haven't seen the bottom yet, either. I'd keep my money on the sidelines for at least another 6 months. It's going to take several years before we recover the losses we've absorbed in the past few months.

I'm down 13% in my IRA's, and I'm in the moderate risk category. I hate to think what others are seeing in their 401K's.

[Aseahawkfan]

Yesterday was the single largest point drop in the DJIA in over 30 years, dropping nearly 3,000 points, and that's despite the Fed's cutting interest rates to zero. The economy is a runaway train heading for a washed out bridge. I'm afraid that we haven't seen the bottom yet, either. I'd keep my money on the sidelines for at least another 6 months. It's going to take several years before we recover the losses we've absorbed in the past few months.

I'm down 13% in my IRA's, and I'm in the moderate risk category. I hate to think what others are seeing in their 401K's.

It will come back sooner than you think for many companies. I don't think it will take several years to get back with a juiced economy. There will be a quick snapback, a washout for companies that can't survive, then a choppy run up. It depends on what companies as well. Cell phone companies, internet companies, social media, oil, power, and similar types of companies will power back up. The financial sector will have a short-term hit, then a big boost as people borrow to get back on their feet.

Brick and stone retailers, grocery stores, restaurants, theaters, and anything heavily impacted by foot travel and social distancing will take a big hit. Cruise ships are an easy double of the company you pick survives. It could also be a huge loss if the company you pick does not. With cruise ships and hotels/casinos, you're gambling.

I've focused on internet companies, a few spec stocks I was already in, big oil, and I'm looking at phone/internet companies right now.

It is best to position in those companies that will see high use during a quarantine or that rev back up real quick because they are commodity based need like oil. You need to pick oil companies that will survive like Exxon, Shell, and Chevron, not shale oil producers that are going to go bankrupt like crazy due to the COVID drop and Saudi Arabia looking to destroy the domestic shale oil production in America.

[RiverDog]

The stock market has given up all the gains made during the Trump presidency. So much for campaigning on a strong economy. There is no doubt that we're in a recession, but it won't be official until we've had two quarters of negative growth something we won't see until this summer just as the Presidential campaign kicks into high gear.

I'm down about 13%, pretty rough considering I'm a moderate risk investor. I was about to file and pay my taxes as we don't have very much withheld from our income sources and I rolled over a bunch of money from a traditional IRA to a Roth. However, I saw where the IRS has extended by 3 months the deadline for paying taxes owed so I went ahead and filed without paying. There's also talk of the government sending out $1,000 checks to everyone. I'd rather see them target the money to individuals that need it, those making less than $100k a year, but it's better than nothing.

[Aseahawkfan]

I stopped buying stocks. I'm keeping more powder if another more serious drop happens. I'm position in companies that should survive this. I'm going to look at the investments as long-term bonds. I have a few gambles on dangerous stocks like Carnival Cruise Lines which may go under, but not a lot of money.

I'm going to build up more cash. This could either get real bad or slow down in a few months like China.