When Can Businesses Open Up?

[RiverDog]

It appears as if we're at or very close to the peak of the crisis, particularly in our area here in WA. Additionally, they've backed off their forecasted total deaths in the US through July, to 60,000, down from just over 80,000 a week or so ago:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

There are some businesses, particularly those that have very few employees per square foot of business space, that should be allowed to re-open. One that comes to mind is residential home construction, another being auto repair shops. So long as those businesses are following the same social distancing guidelines that other businesses that are open and doing business, not allowing workers to be within 6 feet of each other, immediately sending any employee that displays symptoms to get tested, I see no problem with them re-opening. However, large gatherings like movie theatres, churches, restaurants, sporting events, still need to be prohibited.

Testing is going to be a key component in any successful attempt to re-start businesses. The one thing we don't want to have happen is for this thing to pop up again a couple months for now and have to go through this entire process again. There's a limit to the public's acceptance of these rather extreme measures we've been forced to endure. We need to be proactive and test healthy individuals at random to determine if the disease is spreading and the risk of infection acceptable. It's something that should have happened back in January and February.

IMO Memorial Day seems like a realistic goal to get all businesses back up and running. Hopefully the warmer temperatures will help slow down the spread and make it not as communicable.

[c_hawkbob]

If, as it sounds may be the case, Trump jumps the gun and tries to put the economy back in service too soon we're looking at a second peak down the road. We absolutely need more and better testing before trying to get most businesses going again and a working vaccine before getting things all the way back to normal.

[RiverDog]

If, as it sounds may be the case, Trump jumps the gun and tries to put the economy back in service too soon we're looking at a second peak down the road. We absolutely need more and better testing before trying to get most businesses going again and a working vaccine before getting things all the way back to normal.

Although he's obviously influential, Trump doesn't have a lot of authority regarding when businesses open back up. That responsibility, for the most part, lies with the individual state governors (thank God).

As far as a working vaccine goes, it's not likely that we'll have one before January. There may be some ways to have businesses, like the NFL, open up business as usual without a vaccine, such as more effective treatment and as a consequence, a lowered death rate, quicker recovery times, and less of a need for ICU's, respirators, etc. After all, it's not so much the disease itself that's a threat, it's the overwhelming of our health care infrastructure that's the biggest issue. And you're right, it's going to be critical that we have a good, proactive testing program in place.

Point is that any decision be based on the best judgment of our medical community.

[Aseahawkfan]

Yep. State sovereignty over-rides The Fed for now. Trump knows the States have rights. He can rail against them, but he can't force them to return to normal operations.

Most businesses where you can drop off the item like an auto shop or residential construction if working outside and not near you or on a housing project should be good to go.

The quick tests are available now. We should be able to get testing up to a standard needed to get at least somethings going again.

I would still keep theaters, sports, and large gatherings closed into the end of June, possibly longer. I would allow games to be played and televised if the sports leagues want to do it as long as they have on-site testing and plenty of precautions in place.

I would allow restaurants to open dining rooms on a limited basis as long as they can show tables are far enough apart with limits on who can be in the dining room. Wait staff and kitchen staff should work with masks and gloves.

Maybe require masks for travel on mass transit. That bus driver who got coughed on and died was unnecessary. No mask, no travel on mass transit.

Getting the economy operational with methods to slow or prevent infection in place is not only necessary for our quality of life, but also to test measures on how to maintain your economy during a pandemic. it's very important that we not pass on the future this idea of social distancing and hiding as the only means of combating this, but also how to maintain a modern economy during a global pandemic. This is a giant real world experiment we hopefully won't have for another 100 years. We need to make sure we take advantage of it to test and pass on information to our descendants, so they can do better next time. We can't think of just telling the future to hide in their homes, but give them quality information to ensure they handle this far better than we did. Then again in a 100 years, they'll probably be able to produce a usable vaccine in days if not just modify the DNA/RNA to make viruses and bacteria harmless with CRISPR tech.

[RiverDog]

I would allow restaurants to open dining rooms on a limited basis as long as they can show tables are far enough apart with limits on who can be in the dining room. Wait staff and kitchen staff should work with masks and gloves.

The problem with restaurants and bars is the amount of time individuals remain within contact of each other. It's unlikely a casual passing within 6' of an infected person is going to result in acquiring the virus, but if you're with an infected individual for hours, like the Mt.Vernon choir, then the odds go way up. IMO restaurants, bars, movie theatres, playhouses, sporting events, any place with over 50 people with average stays being over 30 minutes should be the last to open.

Maybe require masks for travel on mass transit. That bus driver who got coughed on and died was unnecessary. No mask, no travel on mass transit.

Good idea. There's no reason why bus drivers can't have a nearly climate controlled personal atmosphere inside a plexiglass cab. I wouldn't think it would be terribly expensive to retrofit buses with such a feature.

Getting the economy operational with methods to slow or prevent infection in place is not only necessary for our quality of life, but also to test measures on how to maintain your economy during a pandemic. it's very important that we not pass on the future this idea of social distancing and hiding as the only means of combating this, but also how to maintain a modern economy during a global pandemic. This is a giant real world experiment we hopefully won't have for another 100 years. We need to make sure we take advantage of it to test and pass on information to our descendants, so they can do better next time. We can't think of just telling the future to hide in their homes, but give them quality information to ensure they handle this far better than we did. Then again in a 100 years, they'll probably be able to produce a usable vaccine in days if not just modify the DNA/RNA to make viruses and bacteria harmless with CRISPR tech.

Hopefully we learn a lot of things as a result of this crisis, including having a reserve of PPE's, ventilators, and other cheap to make, long shelf life items. State and federal governments need to come up with a better thought out contingency plan, which businesses should close, which ones remain open, shutting down mass transit, etc. I also want to see a shake-up at the CDC. Some of the mistakes they made were unforgivable. We also need to pressure closed societies like China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, et al to be more open and honest when it comes to communicable diseases.

[Aseahawkfan]

The problem with restaurants and bars is the amount of time individuals remain within contact of each other. It's unlikely a casual passing within 6' of an infected person is going to result in acquiring the virus, but if you're with an individual for hours, like the Mt.Vernon choir, then the odds go way up. IMO restaurants, bars, movie theatres, playhouses, sporting events, any place with over 50 people with average stays being over 30 minutes should be the last to open.

I wouldn't do bars. Just restaurants with good-sized dining areas, smaller restaurants with cramped dining can stick to take out. If you can spread tables, then you should be ok. Bars full of drunk people, no go.

Hopefully we learn a lot of things as a result of this crisis, including having a reserve of PPE's, ventilators, and other cheap to make, long shelf life items. State and federal governments need to come up with a better thought out contingency plan, which businesses should close, which ones remain open, shutting down mass transit, etc. I also want to see a shake-up at the CDC. Some of the mistakes they made were unforgivable. We also need to pressure closed societies like China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, et al to be more open and honest when it comes to communicable diseases.

Maybe a national stockpile of ventilators, but not a lot for each state. We're not overwhelmed on ventilators right now. I tend to agree with how The Fed is doing it right now. States and areas should marshal the resources of their state first with The Fed supporting as needed, so we don't build up a pile of items where they are not needed doing nothing but waiting for a problem that never happens. You deploy The Fed ventilator supply to support the states that need back up. Ventilators don't get used much outside of a situation like this. We don't need this massive investment in ventilators only to sell them after nothing like this occurs again for decades if not a century.

PPE we should have at least some stored up, especially medical masks. They can be used in any outbreak.

I think what I would rather see is a national plan to ramp production of these items quickly rather than a stockpile sitting around. We can make things fast if we need to. No use having tons of stuff sitting around in mothballs when technology and everything else can change. Better to analyze which companies can ramp up production of needed items quickly, maintain a constant list of the companies that can do it, and ramp them up quicker if something similar should happen. Then we're ready to ramp up with current tech items for battling future pandemics with states also having a plan in place backed up by The Fed since state and local leaders often better know how to coordinate their states and cities than The Fed who doesn't have much knowledge or coordination with state and local level government on a day to day basis.

[RiverDog]

I wouldn't do bars. Just restaurants with good-sized dining areas, smaller restaurants with cramped dining can stick to take out. If you can spread tables, then you should be ok. Bars full of drunk people, no go.

The problem is that bars and restaurants are more times than not one and the same. Years ago, they didn't allow anyone under 21 to enter any area where alcohol is served so it would have been relatively easy, but nowadays, it's almost a free-for-all. You can't allow one to open and keep the other closed.

I think what I would rather see is a national plan to ramp production of these items quickly rather than a stockpile sitting around. We can make things fast if we need to. No use having tons of stuff sitting around in mothballs when technology and everything else can change. Better to analyze which companies can ramp up production of needed items quickly, maintain a constant list of the companies that can do it, and ramp them up quicker if something similar should happen. Then we're ready to ramp up with current tech items for battling future pandemics with states also having a plan in place backed up by The Fed since state and local leaders often better know how to coordinate their states and cities than The Fed who doesn't have much knowledge or coordination with state and local level government on a day to day basis.

I suppose that if you could guarantee that a business that makes PPE's could immediately drop what they're doing, re-tool, then start producing quantities of PPE's at 10 times their normal usage, it could take the place of an inventory.

Also, maintaining an inventory of PPE doesn't mean letting it sit around. They can rotate the inventory, move older goods out and replace them with newer, improved models as they become available. Current models are cheap enough that even if it were to suddenly become obsolete, you're not losing all that much money.

One of the issues we haven't talked about is airlines. Should airlines have to provide masks to their passengers and insist that they wear them? Is that a practical solution or would such a requirement unreasonable and unenforceable, like the 55 mph speed limit?

[Aseahawkfan]

I suppose that if you could guarantee that a business that makes PPE's could immediately drop what they're doing, re-tool, then start producing quantities of PPE's at 10 times their normal usage, it could take the place of an inventory.

They won't have to retool much if you know which companies can do it best. You don't need an insane amount of ventilators as we are finding out.

Also, maintaining an inventory of PPE doesn't mean letting it sit around. They can rotate the inventory, move older goods out and replace them with newer, improved models as they become available. Current models are cheap enough that even if it were to suddenly become obsolete, you're not losing all that much money.

We'll have some stockpile. That's just smart. But not enough for a global pandemic this size. If this is happening every few years or even every few decades, we're screwed as a world. I'd rather just have companies like 3M have an immediate plan for ramping up production including supply chains and the like that is maintained as part of a pandemic plan.

One of the issues we haven't talked about is airlines. Should airlines have to provide masks to their passengers and insist that they wear them? Is that a practical solution or would such a requirement unreasonable and unenforceable, like the 55 mph speed limit?

Airlines should be able to require masks for flight. They are public companies and can require things like masks just like you can't smoke on planes or bring certain items.

[RiverDog]

They won't have to retool much if you know which companies can do it best. You don't need an insane amount of ventilators as we are finding out.

I don't know enough about the business to be able to give an informed opinion, but I'd be surprised if they can ramp up production to such a volume to handle a crisis like this one. It might require extra machinery that they don't have, require them to hire and train workers, etc. Keep in mind that there were shortages being reported even in the first couple weeks of this crisis.

Airlines should be able to require masks for flight. They are public companies and can require things like masks just like you can't smoke on planes or bring certain items.

That's where the government can help. The FAA can issue rules for wearing masks just like they do not smoking in the aircraft. The airlines don't even have to enforce it. Make passengers aware that they are being videotaped and can be levied a fine by the FAA. No different than traffic cameras at intersections. All the airlines have to do is make them available and remind passengers of the rules if they aren't in compliance.

Of course, this would apply only during an extreme crisis such as we have now. I have no desire to live in a "Big Brother Is Watching" police state society.

[Aseahawkfan]

I don't know enough about the business to be able to give an informed opinion, but I'd be surprised if they can ramp up production to such a volume to handle a crisis like this one. It might require extra machinery that they don't have, require them to hire and train workers, etc. Keep in mind that there were shortages being reported even in the first couple weeks of this crisis.

3M would have to ramp up hiring and/or automation. We have the capacity to produce PPE, but as Trump mentioned in his press conference it's the contracting that takes time which is why he learned you don't waste time haggling in situations like this, just use the Defense Production Act and get it going. Companies will always be haggling for more money, when they need to get moving. That act was created for just this reason. As much as some companies are stepping up in this crisis, they are still for profit companies that will look to protect themselves. The Defense Protection Act was specifically created to convert private industry into emergency manufacturing. You just use it and don't screw around waiting for companies to negotiate a reasonable contract. I imagine the businessman in Trump wanted to negotiate first, but finally realized he had to get things going when he ordered GM to get it ramped.

That's how I think we do it. If we need it, the president uses the Defense Protection Act to convert private manufacturing to needed supplies. We have the manufacturing capacity, just takes a minute to get people on board.

That's where the government can help. The FAA can issue rules for wearing masks just like they do not smoking in the aircraft. The airlines don't even have to enforce it. Make passengers aware that they are being videotaped and can be levied a fine by the FAA. No different than traffic cameras at intersections. All the airlines have to do is make them available and remind passengers of the rules if they aren't in compliance.

Of course, this would apply only during an extreme crisis such as we have now. I have no desire to live in a "Big Brother Is Watching" police state society.

Yep. That's the line we walk isn't it. Knowing when to limit Civil Liberties for the greater good and for how long. The Patriot Act is still going supported by both Dems and Repubs with no end in site as long as the terrorist threat is still there. We overlook it as long as it doesn't become invasive to too many people. So far The Fed hasn't infringed upon our rights too much and the state and local governments seemed to have put shelter-in-place orders without excessive enforcement even though I'm sure some business and working folk are frightened as hell about not having a business or job after this is done. So there is a line being walked there that I'm sure the governments are watching.

Their coffers have to be as bare as some businesses right now with the need for cash at an all time high. We could see some local government bankruptcies after this. We will see.

[RiverDog]

The Defense Protection Act was specifically created to convert private industry into emergency manufacturing. You just use it and don't screw around waiting for companies to negotiate a reasonable contract.

Except that this POTUS won't use the Defense Production Act for manufacture of PPE's. He invoked it on March 18th for ventilators, but despite calls to do so, has yet to do it for PPE's. The states need something they can draw on without the approval of a POTUS, particularly one like the current office holder, that is driven by political reasons not to invoke the DPA.

Trump has faced pressure from Democrats for weeks to use the DPA to help address the shortages, but has resisted using the legislation for the purpose of manufacturing PPE while bowing to pressure last week on its use to direct companies to manufacture ventilators.

The states need a national repository where they can draw needed PPE supplies without the consent of the federal government, perhaps in a per capita amount, and if they need more, request permission from one of the other 49 states to obtain what they need from their share. Remember, this is the same POTUS that emphatically told governors that "I'm not a supply clerk!" The feds clearly don't want to have anything to do with supplying states with needed materials.

One thing that did tick me off is that, at least in this state, about the shutdown is that the government conveniently exempted themselves from shutting down. They demanded that all non essential construction work stop UNLESS they were working on a state or federally funded project. Talk about hypocrisy! It was the same way when they first banned unsolicited phone calls. They excluded politicians and "non profits" from the law.

[Aseahawkfan]

Except that this POTUS won't use the Defense Production Act for manufacture of PPE's. He invoked it on March 18th for ventilators, but despite calls to do so, has yet to do it for PPE's. The states need something they can draw on without the approval of a POTUS, particularly one like the current office holder, that is driven by political reasons not to invoke the DPA.

Trump has faced pressure from Democrats for weeks to use the DPA to help address the shortages, but has resisted using the legislation for the purpose of manufacturing PPE while bowing to pressure last week on its use to direct companies to manufacture ventilators.

The states need a national repository where they can draw needed PPE supplies without the consent of the federal government, perhaps in a per capita amount, and if they need more, request permission from one of the other 49 states to obtain what they need from their share. Remember, this is the same POTUS that emphatically told governors that "I'm not a supply clerk!" The feds clearly don't want to have anything to do with supplying states with needed materials.

Trump made it clear he wants to be the second line, not the first. I'm not sure how real the shortage is. Hopefully we will have some guidance on that other than news stories of some single doctor or nurse screaming about supply shortages. I'd prefer to see actual numbers. If it's something like supplies are not being delivered on the weekend because hospital administrators did not order them until Monday, I don't want to see The Fed getting blamed for that. Or some journalist finding the one hospital short on supplies and making that seem like it's everyone. Cases and deaths are fairly tame in all but three cities. Washington State and California should not be short on supplies, but New York, New Jersey, and Michigan maybe. We will see.

Yeah. The way Trump addresses it in public is pretty lame. The man doesn't know how to be political. He's like a business owner where you don't give a crap about niceties, you just tell people bluntly what you're going to do. That's not real great for the face of the nation.

One thing that did tick me off is that, at least in this state, about the shutdown is that the government conveniently exempted themselves from shutting down. They demanded that all non essential construction work stop UNLESS they were working on a state or federally funded project. Talk about hypocrisy! It was the same way when they first banned unsolicited phone calls. They excluded politicians and "non profits" from the law.

You and I both know that the government will always exempt themselves or give themselves special favors. That's why you and I don't like big government. For all the talk by socialist supporters, governments are much like businesses in that they favor themselves.

[RiverDog]

I'm not sure how real the shortage is. Hopefully we will have some guidance on that other than news stories of some single doctor or nurse screaming about supply shortages. I'd prefer to see actual numbers. If it's something like supplies are not being delivered on the weekend because hospital administrators did not order them until Monday, I don't want to see The Fed getting blamed for that. Or some journalist finding the one hospital short on supplies and making that seem like it's everyone. Cases and deaths are fairly tame in all but three cities. Washington State and California should not be short on supplies, but New York, New Jersey, and Michigan maybe. We will see.

As I have told you, my daughter is a charge nurse at an urgent care in Spokane. Here's a copy of my chat with her from back on March 10th: I do the ordering for my urgent care and I cant even get 1 box of masks...Yeah I have a feeling I will get covid before too long. Our managers are saying that it is ok to screen people with just masks and gloves since we are getting low on gowns....I dont believe that is true at all

Governors from all across the nation, from both parties, have been lamenting a PPE shortage. Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds (R): Gov. Kim Reynolds asked Iowans to pitch in Monday as the nation's health care professionals deal with a shortage of protective equipment during the COVID-19 pandemic. Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R): DeWine updated Ohio on the personal protective equipment shortage for healthcare workers. He said that one lab has developed a new technology that would sterilize masks so that they can be reused. Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker (R): The governor's frustration on the state's inability to get medical equipment in the middle of the novel coronavirus pandemic spilled over at the end of a 40-minute long news conference on Thursday. The state has found itself bidding against other states as well as the federal government in trying to find materials, particularly personal protective equipment desperately needed by medical facilities and first-responders. "The biggest thing I would say is that we are doing everything we can, through an incredibly messy thicket that is enormously frustrating for all of us to try to get them the gear that they deserve and they need," Gov. Charlie Baker said at a press conference live-streamed from Boston. "There are a lot of very compassionate and very brave people here in the commonwealth, who are doing what they can to serve people recognizing and understanding that in this particular area, the entire country is struggling to deliver."


I can find a lot more quotes like those if you like. It's not just a few bitchy doctors or nurses complaining about it. There's reports of PPE shortages all across the nation, including states like ours and California that are in relatively good shape. The shortage is real. Period.

PPE's may become cheaper and easier to make, but except perhaps with masks, which could change or improve their filters, they don't often become functionally obsolete. A gown is a gown and a face shield is a face shield. They haven't changed in decades. The PPE shortage is one of the easiest things to rectify when it comes time to fix everything that went wrong in our response. We need to keep an inventory of them.

[Aseahawkfan]

As I have told you, my daughter is a charge nurse at an urgent care in Spokane. Here's a copy of my chat with her from back on March 10th: I do the ordering for my urgent care and I cant even get 1 box of masks...Yeah I have a feeling I will get covid before too long. Our managers are saying that it is ok to screen people with just masks and gloves since we are getting low on gowns....I dont believe that is true at all

Governors from all across the nation, from both parties, have been lamenting a PPE shortage. Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds (R): Gov. Kim Reynolds asked Iowans to pitch in Monday as the nation's health care professionals deal with a shortage of protective equipment during the COVID-19 pandemic. Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine (R): DeWine updated Ohio on the personal protective equipment shortage for healthcare workers. He said that one lab has developed a new technology that would sterilize masks so that they can be reused. Massachusetts Gov. Charlie Baker (R): The governor's frustration on the state's inability to get medical equipment in the middle of the novel coronavirus pandemic spilled over at the end of a 40-minute long news conference on Thursday. The state has found itself bidding against other states as well as the federal government in trying to find materials, particularly personal protective equipment desperately needed by medical facilities and first-responders. "The biggest thing I would say is that we are doing everything we can, through an incredibly messy thicket that is enormously frustrating for all of us to try to get them the gear that they deserve and they need," Gov. Charlie Baker said at a press conference live-streamed from Boston. "There are a lot of very compassionate and very brave people here in the commonwealth, who are doing what they can to serve people recognizing and understanding that in this particular area, the entire country is struggling to deliver."


I can find a lot more quotes like those if you like. It's not just a few bitchy doctors or nurses complaining about it. There's reports of PPE shortages all across the nation, including states like ours and California that are in relatively good shape. The shortage is real. Period.

PPE's may become cheaper and easier to make, but except perhaps with masks, which could change or improve their filters, they don't often become functionally obsolete. A gown is a gown and a face shield is a face shield. They haven't changed in decades. The PPE shortage is one of the easiest things to rectify when it comes time to fix everything that went wrong in our response. We need to keep an inventory of them.

Once again, no numbers, just quotes from various times form people like stressed out by the situation. I want numbers. I could find you quotes on ventilators from panicked people and yet we were not short on ventilators. They were estimating ventilator needs. PPE was being focused where it was needed initially, which was New York and New Jersey, not states who wanted to get ahead of things. If you have some numbers, shoot them to me.

As far as I know 3M is manufacturing as much as they can, though shipping some out of the country which The Fed stepped in about. I'd rather see the numbers. What is being produced? What is being used? What is being monitored? Where is it going? There is not an unlimited supply of PPE even if The Fed jumps in and if everyone is ordering at once, then we have a problem. This idea that The Fed can just say produce and all shortages are magically done is not going to happen. It takes some time to ramp up the production and as far as I know that is being done. The Fed will not and should not keep PPE on hand for national pandemic on this scale because we had better not be having them every few years or we're going to have to learn to deal with a lot of death and continue working. We cannot shut down the nation like this even once a decade and be fine.

I'm sorry. I still don't consider it what went "wrong." Once in a century pandemics are once in a century pandemics. You don't prepare for them, you learn from them and get ramped up as fast as you can.

That's the difference between us. You think we can prepare for once in a century pandemics, while I don't think you can. We've been prepared for standard pandemics. We've dealt with them all fine to date. Now we get hit with a once in a century pandemic and the hindsight is 20/20 crowd are using this time to grind their political axes on Trump or whoever their favorite blame victim is whether China or the former president. It's all dumb. The cost of preparing for something like this is exorbitant, unexpected, and unforeseeable no matter how many media stories claim otherwise. I don't care how many doctors were saying "This might happen." They been saying that for decades and it didn't happen. So we're not going to prepare for some insane global pandemic like it's going to happen every few years or every decade.

All I see now is the hindsight is 20/20 crowd piling on The Fed expecting them to magically make everything work perfectly. I've never seen government work that way in the entire time I've been alive no matter who is president. I doubt you have either.

I could create a huge list of how "wrong" we were time and time again from Pearl Harbor to 9/11 to the 1918 Flu to The Great Recession to The Great Depression to The Civil War and nearly ever major problem. We always have these hindsight is 20/20 people blaming someone for some "wrong" thing that we should have done better. Yet none of these presidents or leaders whether they were accounted good or bad has managed it.

Hopefully this PPE shortage and supply logistics gets worked out quickly as companies like 3M get going. Besides 3M, I'm not even sure who produces PPE. I'm hearing we still have a lot of PPE production outside the nation like IV bags in Puerto Rico. Given world demand just went up enormously, they likely don't have the facilities in place to handle a global pandemic with nearly every nation on earth suddenly increasing supply orders exponentially. Fortunately, some entrepreneurs seem to be stepping in.

Do you even know who produces what PPE and where? Do we have a lot of domestic production of PPE? Most of our textiles are produced outside the nation in cheap labor areas like Pakistan, China, and Southeast Asia or India. That would be gowns and maybe masks. Plastic gloves are probably produced outside the nation as well. We may as a nation be competing with other nations for PPE because they are supplied internationally by a handful of companies. Which may lead to even more calls to bring more production back to America.

[Aseahawkfan]

Here is an article on PPE. https://www.aamc.org/news-insights/where-all-ppe\

It does indeed indicate that much of our PPE is produced outside the country and China is a major supplier. So the United States is competing globally for PPE from international producers.

If The Fed is smart they will work on legislation to supplement PPE production like we do steel. For defense purposes, you should always a good production base for needed items you can ramp up. A global supply chain is great for costs, bad when you need the items right now inside the country.

Some other info on regulations on PPE: https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/personal-protective-equipment-infection-control/faqs-shortages-surgical-masks-and-gowns

[RiverDog]

Once again, no numbers, just quotes from various times form people like stressed out by the situation. I want numbers.

I don't need a number from the thermometer to tell me it's cold outside. One step outside the door is all I need to make that determination. I only need the number off the thermometer to tell me how cold it is.

There is a shortage of PPE's at the end user, ie doctors and nurses like my daughter. It's so obvious that a blind man could see it. I haven't a clue why you are doubting it.

[Aseahawkfan]

I don't need a number from the thermometer to tell me it's cold outside. One step outside the door is all I need to make that determination. I only need the number off the thermometer to tell me how cold it is.

There is a shortage of PPE's at the end user, ie doctors and nurses like my daughter. It's so obvious that a blind man could see it. I haven't a clue why you are doubting it.

Because it is so obviously being used by people to attack someone politically than to fix a problem. When you use something to attack someone politically, I will question it. Period. Which is why casting blame is such a bad idea during a major emergency as it causes one to wonder if the complaints are politically motivated or are real.

Now that I have researched it myself, I see it is not The Fed causing the shortage, but a problem with international supply chains overloaded by a global pandemic because we don't have strong domestic production for PPE. And from what I am reading, we don't even have the capacity for domestic production because we have relied on international supply chains due to cheaper costs.

It also sounds like we have been deploying emergency stockpiles to areas of greater need. The stockpile build ups were recommended by experts over the course of many administrations, not just the current one.

So that i why I have to first stop and look to see if the poster is engaging in a political attack or discussing an actual problem.

[RiverDog]

So that i why I have to first stop and look to see if the poster is engaging in a political attack or discussing an actual problem.

So my quote from my daughter constitutes a political attack? Quoting Republican governors noting PPE shortages is a political attack against a Republican POTUS?

Lord, you can take me now, I've seen everything!

[Aseahawkfan]

So my quote from my daughter constitutes a political attack? Quoting Republican governors noting PPE shortages is a political attack against a Republican POTUS?

Lord, you can take me now, I've seen everything!

Due to your previous desire to blame Trump for this situation, yes, I see you pushing an attack on Trump. Once you start to blame someone for something with nothing more than conjecture based on agenda-driven articles you've been consuming on a leftist rag like the New York Times or leftist news station like CNN, then yes, I look at it is furthering a political attack.

Just like if IDhawkman started posting articles from Fox News or a right wing rag to further his opinion as he has done many times.

I'm always going to instead look at the raw data. Just as I thought with the PPE issue, it is a supply shock issue rather than the rubbish "Trump should have done things sooner" or "He got rid of the pandemic team" or what not articles I've seen. The evidence clearly shows that we have a global distribution system for PPE like with everything else and it is unable to meet demand currently and is catching up. Not anyone's fault, just a matter of time to ramp up for a global pandemic when nearly every nation in the world suddenly lit up their order web sites and lines.

I avoid news like CNN, Fox, and MSNBC as well as newspapers for a reason. They are trash written by agenda-driven journalists looking to make hay out of anything they possibly can.

You can feign agony call you want, but your line of attack on Trump to blame him for a once in a century pandemic has been clear. I'm sorry if I'm as tired of Trump being blamed for every little thing as I was of the right wing blaming Obama for every little thing. The blame game is tiresome and doesn't do much except fuel the small minds on the extreme of each side into even more extreme positions.

[RiverDog]

I went back and looked through my comments in this thread and the only part I can find where I specifically was critical of Trump's was in his failure to evoke the DPA regarding the production of PPE's and his statement that "I'm not a supply clerk", which are FACTS and indicates that he does not want the federal government involved in managing a PPE reserve. The reason I mentioned it was as a counter argument to your claim that rather than maintaining an inventory of PPE that we could rely on the activation of the DPA to meet an unexpected demand.

I don't know what is in you that causes you to get so defensive of Trump. ANY President, in a situation like this, is going to face criticism. It comes with the territory. It's no different than if you were to get all worked up if complaints arise of Pete Carroll's game management. Rather than defending why Pete decided to go for it on 4th and one on his own 45 instead of punting, you're obsessed with protecting him from criticism by diverting the discussion away from the message (Pete's decision) and concentrating it on the motives of the messenger (obiken, for example).

It's virtually impossible to have an intelligent discussion about any related topic without such criticism.

[c_hawkbob]

It's virtually impossible to have an intelligent discussion about any related topic without such criticism

I find it totally impossible, which is what has led me to keep Asea on mute ... for a guy that claims to be anti-Trump he sure does carry his water, with extreme prejudice. He gets angry and mean if you say anything remotely disparaging of him ... And he calls me a hypocrite.

[RiverDog]

It's virtually impossible to have an intelligent discussion about any related topic without such criticism

I find it totally impossible, which is what has led me to keep Asea on mute ... for a guy that claims to be anti-Trump he sure does carry his water, with extreme prejudice. He gets angry and mean if you say anything remotely disparaging of him ... And he calls me a hypocrite.

Unfortunately that's mostly true. He's certainly not pro-Trump in the same manner that Idahawkman is, but there have been a number of occasions where he's proven himself to be an apologist that seeks excuses for DJT's actions/behavior, especially on this topic. Doubting that there is a PPE shortage is about the same as calling the coronavirus a hoax.

[Aseahawkfan]

That's horsecrap. I just prefer accuracy. When it's Trump's fault, I call it Trump's fault.

And c-bob is a hypocrite because he spent five years hammering on George Bush Jr. for starting an illegal war that killed hundreds of thousands of people, then he says he'd rather have Bush Jr. than Trump? Really? A narcissistic jackass that mostly anti-war over a guy you claimed illegally started a war that murdered hundreds thousands of people? How does that work? It's more propaganda versus reality that C-bob buys into every time there is a Republican president at least since I've been interacting with him.

[Aseahawkfan]

Unfortunately that's mostly true. He's certainly not pro-Trump in the same manner that Idahawkman is, but there have been a number of occasions where he's proven himself to be an apologist that seeks excuses for DJT's actions/behavior, especially on this topic. Doubting that there is a PPE shortage is about the same as calling the coronavirus a hoax.

Oh really? That's why I've called out IDhawkman on his BS Trump claims, likely more vociferously than anyone else on the forum. I'm fairly certain if you asked IDhawkman he'd be of the opposite opinion.

I guess it is difficult to tell when someone is anti-lying BS no matter who it comes from.

I looked up the PPE shortage and saw that it was real. I also found the real reason rather than it's Trump's fault. Which it wasn't, just a supply shock.

You have completely ignored the evidence I provided you showing that Trump's lateness compared to Italy was nothing but a media driven narrative and lie. A bunch of cases were diagnosed about the same time and spreading at the same time. Italy did not blow up and then we had two weeks to do things. Our cases were diagnosed and building at the same time back in late January. This whole media narrative that Trump's the one that held things up is total BS. If you do the research you find the real narrative which is the CDC pursued the creation of an American produced test because that is what they usually do in these situations, not because Trump decided not accept tests from a foreign agency.

Trump doesn't know crap about pandemics. He had a room full of doctors and advisers giving him different takes on this and went with the consensus. Now hindsight is 20/20 media trying to pin this crap on him? C'mon, I'm not buying this trash anymore than I'm buying that it is Obama's fault. None of you seem to notice when I don't go around blaming Obama for some of the dumb crap Trump claims. The only deal I did not like Obama did was the Iran deal. Otherwise, we was pretty much business as usual.

I guess it's too much ask people to remember when I hammer on the pro-Trump crowd or neo-Cons like burrton when they make a weak or false argument. I guess most only recall when I call them out for BS.

If you were to parse my posts with a variety of posters, you would find I'm one of the most direct, no BS posters on this forum. I pretty much call it as it is with lots of information to back it including remembering things like c-bob referring to Bush Jr. as Shrub and calling Bush Jr. and Cheney war criminals. I guess it's good to know C-bob would rather have a war criminal in office than a narcissistic jackass like Trump. Yeah. I'm being sarcastic. I know c-bob just hates Republican presidents in general because he doesn't like the modern Republican Party. I have no idea what he thought about past Republicans like Reagan or what not. Never interacted with him on politics then.

But me being a Trump supporter or apologist is BS. I'm just not going to pile on the guy for a global pandemic because he's made some missteps in his speeches. I wouldn't have done it to Obama either or any president for that matter. Just like I didn't blame Obama for The Great Recession. Things happen. The government is usually reactionary and not proactive. Just the nature of government. Some are better than others for various reasons. I figured we'd be somewhere between Italy and South Korea/Germany. That's about where we are. Our people are unruly, our population huge, and it's hard to coordinate fast like South Korea or Germany.

[RiverDog]

Unfortunately that's mostly true. He's (ASF) certainly not pro-Trump in the same manner that Idahawkman is, but there have been a number of occasions where he's proven himself to be an apologist that seeks excuses for DJT's actions/behavior, especially on this topic. Doubting that there is a PPE shortage is about the same as calling the coronavirus a hoax.

Oh really? That's why I've called out IDhawkman on his BS Trump claims, likely more vociferously than anyone else on the forum. I'm fairly certain if you asked IDhawkman he'd be of the opposite opinion.

Re-read what I said above. I said that you "certainly not pro-Trump in the same manner that Idahawkman is". Once again, you are mis-characterizing my remarks.

I looked up the PPE shortage and saw that it was real. I also found the real reason rather than it's Trump's fault. Which it wasn't, just a supply shock.

It's good to have you amongst the 95%+ of people that can see that there's a shortage. To continue to question it would have put you out there with the Flat Earthers. And I never said that the PPE shortage was Trump's fault, at least not initially. But he hasn't done enough to rectify it. As you yourself stated, the DPA is one tool that the POTUS can use to address the shortage, something of which he has failed to do. Heck, he's made comments that he hasn't even heard of any shortages.

But me being a Trump supporter or apologist is BS.

You're not a supporter, and now that you're finally admitting that there truly is a PPE shortage, you can put a little daylight between yourself and the Hannity's and Limbaugh's of the world that absolves him of everything. But in my view, there are times when you make excuses for Trump's actions or inactions, and your attempt to rationalize his response to this crisis is one such occasion.

Now I see where Trump insists that he has "total authority" to overrule states with stay at home orders and re-start the economy. This ought to be interesting. He's going to turn this thing into a political tug-of-war as there will be states out there that will charge at the red cape he's waving in front of them. There will be Democratic governors that will refuse to rescind their orders simply to let Trump stub his toes, then we'll have a whole bunch of Deplorables defying the state orders because of Trump's stance.

Here's an interesting piece from the National Review, a conservative publication, regarding Trump's "total authority" to re-start the economy:

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/ ... to-reopen/

[RiverDog]

The Governors in 7 states in the Northeast have drawn up a plan to re-start the economy. NY, NJ, RI, PA, CT, MA and DL have all formed a pact while the 3 Pacific coast states of WA,OR, and CA have come to a similar agreement.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/13/politics ... index.html

This is a smart move as it makes things a little less complicated. The 3 Pacific coast states all have liberal Democrats for governors while the Northeast group has just one Republican. This pretty much throws down the gauntlet for Trump if he wants to test their authority.

[MackStrongIsMyHero]

Yeah, Trump needs to back off this one and quick. States will do and need to do what is best for them right now. Trump is all too concerned about the economy; in an election year, any president would be, but his personality won't let him sit back and let this run its course properly. The economy was going to take a hit regardless so why not comport yourself in a way that is supportive and understanding and non-self aggrandizing? I think most voters would be understanding of a slack in the economy over this, but they'll have a hard time forgetting acting like a jackass.

Also, speaking of governors, I am really impressed with Jon Bel Edwards here in Louisiana. He's made it about leading, and, while he undoubtedly isn't happy with the federal response and Trump, he's refrained from making it political, and I think people will notice.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... story.html

[RiverDog]

Yeah, Trump needs to back off this one and quick. States will do and need to do what is best for them right now. Trump is all too concerned about the economy; in an election year, any president would be, but his personality won't let him sit back and let this run its course properly. The economy was going to take a hit regardless so why not comport yourself in a way that is supportive and understanding and non-self aggrandizing? I think most voters would be understanding of a slack in the economy over this, but they'll have a hard time forgetting acting like a jackass.

Also, speaking of governors, I am really impressed with Jon Bel Edwards here in Louisiana. He's made it about leading, and, while he undoubtedly isn't happy with the federal response and Trump, he's refrained from making it political, and I think people will notice.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... story.html

Hey, Mack, it's always a pleasure to see you poke your head in here. Nice post, and I'm in complete agreement with your first paragraph.

But I have to ask you about your 2nd paragraph. New Orleans is one of the coronavirus hot spots, and it's almost certainly a lot worse due to the Mardi Gras celebration that was allowed to take place in February. How much information did the Governor/NOLA Mayor have available when they made the decision to allow it to proceed? Did the Trump Administration's failure to issue any warnings affect any decisions that were made?

The fact that NOLA popped up so quickly is a bit of a concern. Most viruses don't like hot, humid climates, and it doesn't get a lot hotter and humid than it does in your neck of the woods.

[MackStrongIsMyHero]

The mayor and the governor stated there was no warning about shutting it down from federal agencies. Also, at the time, it was business as usual in most parts of the country. Edwards didn’t issue his emergency proclamation until March 11. Hind sight definitely says they should not have allowed it, but, barring police/NG intervention, those revelers probably would have done it anyway. I hate to say, it but there was probably some reluctance solely based on losing all that income from the event; I wonder about that double edged sword aspect. Shut it all down and you have a significant amount of service workers losing major income from that event but way fewer sick people. Keep it open so they at least get that shot of income before going dormant but exposure increases significantly. Hard to say if firm guidance prior to the event would have moved them to cancel. Such a big economic event for the state and city.

The mayor of NOLA did officially cancel St. Patrick’s day parades much to the dismay of the populace who proceeded to do it anyway but in reduced numbers. None of the bars and restaurants down there wanted to close.

It actually hasn’t been that hot. A lot of rain during that time and cool temperatures. It will be more telling come May if hot humid temperatures mean anything to this virus.

A link regarding the CDC on Mardi Gras:

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/ ... mm6915e4_w

In the second and third paragraphs in the Discussion section may explain some of it.

"Mardi Gras, which concluded on February 25, occurred at a time when cancelling mass gatherings (e.g., festivals, conferences, and sporting events) was not yet common in the United States."

So who dropped the ball? Trump, NOLA Mayor, Edwards, or CDC?

[RiverDog]

The mayor and the governor stated there was no warning about shutting it down from federal agencies. Also, at the time, it was business as usual in most parts of the country. Edwards didn’t issue his emergency proclamation until March 11. Hind sight definitely says they should not have allowed it, but, barring police/NG intervention, those revelers probably would have done it anyway. I hate to say, it but there was probably some reluctance solely based on losing all that income from the event; I wonder about that double edged sword aspect. Shut it all down and you have a significant amount of service workers losing major income from that event but way fewer sick people. Keep it open so they at least get that shot of income before going dormant but exposure increases significantly. Hard to say if firm guidance prior to the event would have moved them to cancel. Such a big economic event for the state and city.

The mayor of NOLA did officially cancel St. Patrick’s day parades much to the dismay of the populace who proceeded to do it anyway but in reduced numbers. None of the bars and restaurants down there wanted to close.

It actually hasn’t been that hot. A lot of rain during that time and cool temperatures. It will be more telling come May if hot humid temperatures mean anything to this virus.

A link regarding the CDC on Mardi Gras:

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/ ... mm6915e4_w

In the second and third paragraphs in the Discussion section may explain some of it.

"Mardi Gras, which concluded on February 25, occurred at a time when cancelling mass gatherings (e.g., festivals, conferences, and sporting events) was not yet common in the United States."

So who dropped the ball? Trump, NOLA Mayor, Edwards, or CDC?

Yea, that pretty much aligns with what I've been hearing. Although the buck stops with the governor and mayor, it sure would have helped to have had a recommendation from the federal government, either the Administration or the CDC. They had more information available to them than any state or city. Our governor here in WA didn't shut down events of 250+ in the 3 Puget Sound counties until March 11th, and we had the first reported cases in the nation, so it's pretty hard to blame Louisiana for not shutting down Mardi Gras in February. Hindsight is 20/20.

I know that ASF doesn't like hearing this, but IMO based on what we know now, the two most accountable for not getting ahead of it further than we did are Donald Trump and the CDC. We probably won't know exactly who knew what, when they knew it, and what options they had until after the investigation into the federal government's response that's sure to come, probably beginning sometime next year when the new Congress is seated. But based on Trump's continued trivialization of the crisis and what we already know about the CDC's bungling of the tests, that's my guess as to what will end up in the final analysis.

Interesting about your weather. I never really checked to see exactly what the conditions were, just repeating what I heard from my sources. Hopefully this virus is like influenza in that it doesn't like the heat and humidity.