So Where Do We Go From Here?

[RiverDog]

From my perspective from where I live in the Tri-Cities, my area is not ready to re-open. We are seeing an increase in ER visits, in hospitalizations, and in confirmed cases. We're the biggest hotspot in the state. And to make matters worse, there are 95 cases and one death that is attributed to a local meat packing plant. This plant has 1400 employees, mostly low income folks that live in close quarters, ride to/from work in cramped car pools, and work shoulder-to-shoulder with one another. Just yesterday, they announced that they are shutting down and testing their entire workforce. Needless to say, if the wife and I have to go anywhere, we'll be limiting our trips, wearing our masks, and staying at least 6' away from others for quite some time.

But I can see the logic of re-opening some low risk businesses and allowing some recreational activities, at least in some areas of the country that are showing positive signs that they have it under control. What I would like to see happening is for the states/counties to reach out to all low risk businesses like construction, auto repair, low volume retailers, gyms, etc, and tell them that they can re-open on the condition that they closely monitor all their employees and patrons for compliance with established social distancing guidelines and that they are subject to being shut down if they receive complaints that they're not following the guidelines. This could include requiring all employees and customers wear a face covering. I'm sure that after having been just down for weeks, that businesses would be more than willing to support any conditions that the state may want to place as a requirement for resuming operations.

I'm not sure if we have adequate monitoring measures in place to permit a large scale re-opening. There seems to be a difference of opinion as to our current testing capability. Of course, the POTUS swears that it's more than ample, but many others disagree. There's also a need to put in place contact chasers, so when a patient tests positive that they find those they had contact with and advise them to get in to be tested. These contact chasers could come from various groups, including the National Guard, census takers, and laid off workers.

Comments?

[MackStrongIsMyHero]

I want to say leave it up to the governors, but some governors want to push for re-opening before it is safe to do so, in my opinion.

All I can speak for is Louisiana, and the governor is maintaining the stay-at-home order through April 30 and will reassess Phase I of re-opening then. It is contingent on case curve breaking the plateau in the downward direction. Even with that, he's already stated that wearing masks is the new normal right now, so I don't expect him to want to relax PPE and social distancing measures even with a limited re-opening. The state has also been doing as much as they can to ramp up testing capacity which along with building the contacting tracing infrastructure will be key to re-opening.

You last statement is the answer. Have ample testing capacity and the resources to trace contact. I don't think you can consider reopening with out those two measures in place.

[curmudgeon]

I haven’t gone out more than three times over the last month. Yesterday I went to a “local” grocery store close to my neighborhood. Unfortunately, only about 50% of people in the store (including employees) were wearing masks. As I left the store I asked the cart attendant what percentage of people were masked up. He indicated that is was a wide variance based on time of day and demographic of shoppers. To top it off, as I left the store I heard some hacking and coughing and observed from a distance a woman loading her groceries into car than hocking up junk and spitting in the parking lot. Darwin always wins......think I’ll stay home for the near future.....

[RiverDog]

I haven’t gone out more than three times over the last month. Yesterday I went to a “local” grocery store close to my neighborhood. Unfortunately, only about 50% of people in the store (including employees) were wearing masks. As I left the store I asked the cart attendant what percentage of people were masked up. He indicated that is was a wide variance based on time of day and demographic of shoppers. To top it off, as I left the store I heard some hacking and coughing and observed from a distance a woman loading her groceries into car than hocking up junk and spitting in the parking lot. Darwin always wins......think I’ll stay home for the near future.....

Wow, nice to see you dip your toe in here, curmudgeon!

Your observation on the percentage of people wearing masks coincides with that if my own. I went into Costco two days ago and less than half were wearing a face covering, including their checkers.

The woman you saw coughing might not have COVID. Although I'm sure that the types of symptoms vary from person to person, they say that COVID involves a dry cough, not the typical bronchitis type of symptoms that lady was showing. But that shouldn't take away from the point you were making.

I'm glad that you're taking this seriously. Stay safe, my friend!

[RiverDog]

I want to say leave it up to the governors, but some governors want to push for re-opening before it is safe to do so, in my opinion.

All I can speak for is Louisiana, and the governor is maintaining the stay-at-home order through April 30 and will reassess Phase I of re-opening then. It is contingent on case curve breaking the plateau in the downward direction. Even with that, he's already stated that wearing masks is the new normal right now, so I don't expect him to want to relax PPE and social distancing measures even with a limited re-opening. The state has also been doing as much as they can to ramp up testing capacity which along with building the contacting tracing infrastructure will be key to re-opening.

You last statement is the answer. Have ample testing capacity and the resources to trace contact. I don't think you can consider reopening with out those two measures in place.

IMO one of the mistakes the south is making is that they're not working together on re-opening businesses. WA, OR, and CA have all agreed to make decisions in conjunction with one another. They're doing the same in areas in the Northeast and Midwest. You can't have the gov in LA not knowing or caring what the Gov in MS is doing and expect to be effective in combating the virus. Certainly it helps us here on the left coast to have all 3 of our governors hail from the same political party, but from what I've heard, the governors in the south, even those within the same party, aren't so much as talking with one another.

But to be fair, we have our own political idiots out here, too. Two days ago, in Franklin County here in the Tri Cities, home to the majority of workers at the meat packing plant I mentioned earlier, the county commissioners, not caring that all the evidence points to a rise in COVID cases in our area and without talking with any of their legal counselors, decided that the governor's stay at home order was unconstitutional, which of course, it's not. So without the issue being on their agenda, which in itself is a violation of state law, they voted on and approved a measure they drew up to re-open all businesses within the county even though it didn't cover the two incorporated cities and not having talked to their mayors or city councilmen. Nor did they consult with the other county across the river, Benton, that's home to the majority of Tri Citians.

[Aseahawkfan]

As I stated in another thread, I don't think we have much choice but to get going again or we're going to have so much economic damage that we won't see a return to normal for an unpredictable number of years. In about a month and a half of lockdown, we've seen unemployment shoot up to 18%, the debt likely to shoot up 3.8 trillion in a single year, the decimation of the airline industry, the oil industry, the entertainment industry, retail, restaurants, the car industry, and almost anything deemed non-essential. For those that follow the economy it's like watching dominoes falling or someone knocking out cards from a house of cards.

The local, state, and federal governments are now expected to pay for these huge testing programs, massive stimulus programs, and absolute gigantic number of unemployment claims while their tax revenues have dropped like rocks. Their source of revenue is gone. They are having to furlough government employees which is continuing the cascading effect of unemployment claims going up while tax revenues are going down.

Then we're printing dollars while Saudi Arabia and Russia take advantage of the situation by starting an oil war, which is killing the American oil industry. I also hear China, Russia, and Saudi Arabia are working together to bring about taking payment for oil in something other than dollars, which would topple our position as the world reserve currency, put downward demand on the dollar while we are printing money to boost supply to loan to stimulate the economy, and the end result of Saudi Arabia taking payment for oil in other than dollars would be a drop in world demand for US dollars during a time of excessive supply which would devalue our dollar substantially reducing our buying power both inside and outside the nation.

I think a lot regular folks really don't get all the economic forces coming down on us right now. Now all the governments are pretty much seeing that their disorganized, not well thought out lock down is about to utterly gut the American economy including threatening social security and medicate in a way it's never been threatened before because social security and medicare taxes are also having huge downward pressure that if we don't get this going soon, I think we might even see cuts to social security and medicare like you've never seen before as an austerity measure for the government to continue operations.

It may be wiser to let states go bankrupt at this point and restart the economy than force them to pay back the enormous loans they are going to have to take out to continue operations and pay back what they already owe in the coming years.

The economic damage building right now is the worst I've ever seen in my life. I believe it is the worst on record in modern history. It only took a month and a half of a lock down to do unprecedented economic damage. If we remain shutdown, it's just going to keep getting worse while people are yelling for the government to pay for it all and fix it with tax revenues that fell through the floor. So basically the government will have to print funny money and increase debt to insane levels to pay for all this that future generations will have to pay back at some point or declare bankruptcy. 1200 a month isn't going to cut it for the vast majority of Americans. Nor is 2000. No jobs, no businesses operating, no tax revenues to pay for all this stuff we need done to get back to operating normally.

If they don't start to open again and find a way to operate with this virus spreading while accepting the level of death that comes, I don't see us remaining a world power for much longer. It's that bad right now. I've even read articles where hospitals are cutting pay just to remain open to treat COVID19 because their primary revenue streams from other procedures and medical services are cut off right now. That's how bad it is. These governors literally don't have much choice but to get this economy going or face a level of economic damage they won't likely recover from in over a decade that makes The Great Recession look like minor bump. And even once we get going again, it will be slow and still highly damaging economically because this virus is worse for the airline and entertainment industry than 9/11.

[Aseahawkfan]

I read a quote I found interesting that I'd like to see too. The poster said, "All the people wanting to continue the lock down were people that still had a job or a retirement check." I would like to see a poll of people who are at risk of losing everything during shutdown.

26 million unemployment claims filed in 5 weeks of the approximate workforce of 156 million. That is a 16.7% unemployment rate in only five weeks of lock down from a roughly 3 to 4% prior to the lock down. The highest the unemployment rate went during The Great Recession was 10%. This is the highest number of unemployment claims filed within this time frame in recorded history. The highest unemployment got during The Great Depression was 24.9%. If this lock down continues, we will beat that.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/23/coronavirus-unemployment-claims-numbers-203455

[RiverDog]

I read a quote I found interesting that I'd like to see too. The poster said, "All the people wanting to continue the lock down were people that still had a job or a retirement check." I would like to see a poll of people who are at risk of losing everything during shutdown.

26 million unemployment claims filed in 5 weeks of the approximate workforce of 156 million. That is a 16.7% unemployment rate in only five weeks of lock down from a roughly 3 to 4% prior to the lock down. The highest the unemployment rate went during The Great Recession was 10%. This is the highest number of unemployment claims filed within this time frame in recorded history. The highest unemployment got during The Great Depression was 24.9%. If this lock down continues, we will beat that.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/23/coronavirus-unemployment-claims-numbers-203455

I think that's probably accurate. And I'll add to that observation that those that are most strongly against re-opening are those that would suffer the greatest harm, ie health care workers, or relatives thereof, that still have problems with adequate PPE's and test kits that would pay the price should we re-open prematurely and experience another breakout. I saw two competing protests, angry unemployed, mostly Trump supporters standing shoulder-to-shoulder w/o masks in defiance of the guidelines against heath care workers in their work garb with masks.

I'm not against re-opening businesses so long as we're smart about it. As I stated above, there are hot spots like where I live where it wouldn't be wise to re-open, especially since we're still not testing enough people. But so long as we're smart about it, that businesses act in a responsible manner and put their hearts into complying with the guidelines, I see no problems with them re-opening.

The problem I have is that not enough people are taking this seriously. Heck, even the POTUS, even though he's been all over the board on this, is currently advocating a slow roll out of business, even took to criticizing a fellow Republican Governor from Georgia.

[RiverDog]

And speaking of the POTUS, did you see where that moonbat suggested that doctors inject infected patients with lights and disinfectants?

"So supposing we hit the body with a tremendous — whether it's ultraviolet or just a very powerful light — and I think you said that hasn't been checked because of the testing," Trump said, speaking to Bryan during the briefing. "And then I said, supposing you brought the light inside the body, which you can do either through the skin or some other way, and I think you said you're going to test that, too."

He added: "I see the disinfectant that knocks it out in a minute, one minute. And is there a way we can do something like that by injection inside or almost a cleaning? As you see, it gets in the lungs, it does a tremendous number on the lungs, so it would be interesting to check that."

Too bad Hawk Talk is no longer posting regularly. I'd love to be a fly on the wall with all the superlatives he'd be tossing out about now.

[c_hawkbob]

What a far right viewpoint ... what I see are a bunch of people that are already millionaires and billionaires asking us paycheck to paycheck hourly folk to risk our lives so they don't lose everything (or to stay in the administration's favor).

Obviously there is some truth to both viewpoints, as always, but I only see one side being represented on this particular topic.

[RiverDog]

The coronavirus couldn't have exposed the current social and political divide in our country any better had it been designed to do such. On the one side, you have the mostly liberal urban folks that are more trusting of science (see global warming debate), more pro government, and due to the difference in population density, more prone to being struck by the virus.

On the other side, we have the mostly conservative, blue collar, largely rural and suburban folks that doubt scientists, think that colleges are a cess pool promoting liberal thought and behavior, are largely anti government, and due to their much lower population density, much less susceptible to falling ill to the virus.

It makes you wonder if some other crisis had struck the country, say a disease-carrying mosquito infestation that struck mostly rural areas but left urban areas relatively untouched. Would the liberals be clamoring to start the country back up and the conservatives wanting everyone to stay home?

[Aseahawkfan]

My job will be fine. So this isn't me unemployed wanting to get back to work. I work for a company that is benefiting from these circumstances. It also isn't my stock investments. I pulled back on buying stocks a while back and am sitting on a huge amount of powder to purchase when the collapse that is building happens during the second or third quarter of this year.

I'm not trying pump the administration. I don't care if Trump loses or wins in November. Guys mostly a moron staying moronic things. He doesn't even seem able to help himself at this point as he gave the left wing media another incredibly stupid quote to hammer him with with the disinfectants. I wish the various levels of governments would get their heads out of their behinds from the top down president included and get a Federal, State, and Local plan to get this economy going again. Not because I want my money as I know what to by when this collapse hits. I'm already positioned in some of these companies.

What I don't want to see is my brother and friends who aren't working for a company doing fine to lose all they have for a virus that likely won't kill them, but a destroyed economy that might lower their life by a number of years by making them unemployed for an unknown amount of time, destroy their health insurance, shut down the medical system to anything but COVID19 treatment, and generally turning America into a Depression Era America with modern drugs thrown into the mix of crowded shelters, streets, and food banks.

It's no joke that our unemployment rate of 16.7% is historically high. It's heading towards Depression Era unemployment. I'm pretty sure we've all seen the films of the Depression Era and don't want to see that in America again.

These government idgits need to get things in place and get this going. Their bickering and positioning for election and blaming each other is helping the working people of America not at all. And all the billionaires and millionaires may want the economy going, but the reality is if it doesn't get going they will take their money and be fine able to support themselves and their families for years. The people most getting hurt by this lock down are the working people who can't survive more than a few paychecks to maintain even their mediocre lifestyle.

I know some of you may not believe me and I don't care. My job is fine, well paid, and I'm stacking a lot of cash right now. I'm also sitting on a pile of cash waiting to buy the huge coming drop in the stock market. But I don't care about that. This is threatening to wipe out my brother's job and a few of my friends. And they are just a small number of the people that will get ripped apart by a cascading unemployment that will start cascading bankruptcy for small business which will start a cascading drop in the stock market which will destroy pensions and tax revenues.

So yeah, I could be selfish because I have a job and a lot of money encouraging the lock down to continue, but I don't want to live in a third world America where I'm part of the money class while I'm watching working people standing in food lines and forced out of their homes as I already watched that during the 2008 Recession and this is going to make 2008 look like a light rain compared to the economic storm that is coming. I can't emphasize enough that this is going to happen, to what degree depends on how soon we get this thing going again.

[RiverDog]

I'm not trying pump the administration. I don't care if Trump loses or wins in November. Guys mostly a moron staying moronic things. He doesn't even seem able to help himself at this point as he gave the left wing media another incredibly stupid quote to hammer him with with the disinfectants. I wish the various levels of governments would get their heads out of their behinds from the top down president included and get a Federal, State, and Local plan to get this economy going again. Not because I want my money as I know what to by when this collapse hits. I'm already positioned in some of these companies.

You don't care if Trump wins or loses in November? I thought that you had a preference for Biden and wanted Trump off stage.

So yeah, I could be selfish because I have a job and a lot of money encouraging the lock down to continue, but I don't want to live in a third world America where I'm part of the money class while I'm watching working people standing in food lines and forced out of their homes as I already watched that during the 2008 Recession and this is going to make 2008 look like a light rain compared to the economic storm that is coming. I can't emphasize enough that this is going to happen, to what degree depends on how soon we get this thing going again.

I'm not hurting, either, but I do have to admit to a personal bias in that I have a daughter that works as a provider that could very well end up being infected if we restart things prematurely and don't get our act together regarding PPE's and testing.

If it's going to require that we wait another 2-6 weeks in order to get our act together regarding testing, contact tracing, and PPE's, then that's what we need to do. It's hard for me to believe that waiting another few weeks is going to do that much more damage to the economy that hasn't been done already. Certainly the folks on Wall Street aren't all that concerned.

[Aseahawkfan]

What a far right viewpoint ... what I see are a bunch of people that are already millionaires and billionaires asking us paycheck to paycheck hourly folk to risk our lives so they don't lose everything (or to stay in the administration's favor).

Obviously there is some truth to both viewpoints, as always, but I only see one side being represented on this particular topic.

Who was hurt worse during The Great Recession: millionaires and billionaires or working people? Who lost their jobs, homes, and ended up in huge debt trying to survive that took years to recover from?

The highest unemployment rate during the 2008 Great Recession was 10% and it took months if not over a year to get there. The unemployment rate we're sitting at right now is 16.7% and rising in five weeks.

People should have the choice with effectively communicated risk mitigation to risk their lives or risk their financial life. I don't mind giving folks the choice, but they should have that choice. Do you want to be poor for the next five plus years, lose your house, lose your job with no idea when or if it will come back or risk dying of this virus? Your option.

That is where we're at right now. As the job losses and bankruptcies rise as more and more businesses run out of money to sustain this lock down, then this economy heads closer and closer to a collapse so deep and profound that no one can foresee when it will be healthy again. If the American economy goes in the trash, it often takes the world economy with it.

[Aseahawkfan]

You don't care if Trump wins or loses in November? I thought that you had a preference for Biden and wanted Trump off stage.

I would prefer Trump gone even if it were Sanders as Sanders would have at least been interesting, but I don't care enough to freak out either way if that's a better way to put it. If Trump wins, I won't be ripping my hair and crying like the world is going to end like say a Hawktawk. If Biden wins,I won't be ripping my hair out waiting for our guns to be taken and us to change to socialists like say an Idhawkman.

It's hard to nuance that statement each time you state it. Suffice it to say whoever is president isn't going send me into a tizzy one way or the other.

Yeah. I'm tired of the environment Trump creates with his combative pettiness and the reactions to it.

I'm not hurting, either, but I do have to admit to a personal bias in that I have a daughter that works as a provider that could very well end up being infected if we restart things prematurely and don't get our act together regarding PPE's and testing

If it's going to require that we wait another 2-6 weeks in order to get our act together regarding testing, contact tracing, and PPE's, then that's what we need to do. It's hard for me to believe that waiting another few weeks is going to do that much more damage to the economy that hasn't been done already. Certainly the folks on Wall Street aren't all that concerned.

A few weeks would probably be ok. I"m of the mind the warning bells need to be ringing and our government from the top down needs to stop politicizing a global pandemic to forward their various worldviews and get to the business of the nation up and running. I mean from the top down. A president fighting with his governors and Congress and them taking shots back is about the last thing we need right now. I can't believe these group of idgits are spending time doing this during a global pandemic and economic disaster of historical proportions airing their grievances against each other in public.

Like we all said before Trump was elected other than I guess Idhawkmen and other Trump supporters, this is the weakest leadership I can recall in my lifetime. Trump is a bully. And Pelosi and McConnell don't seem up to the task of putting the bully back in line. Our leadership from the top down seems pretty weak right now and need a lot better and quick. I wish I had a better person to vote for than BIden next election because I have definitely grown weary of Trump, but Biden seems equally weak.

[RiverDog]

I would prefer Trump gone even if it were Sanders as Sanders would have at least been interesting, but I don't care enough to freak out either way if that's a better way to put it. If Trump wins, I won't be ripping my hair and crying like the world is going to end like say a Hawktawk. If Biden wins,I won't be ripping my hair out waiting for our guns to be taken and us to change to socialists like say an Idhawkman. It's hard to nuance that statement each time you state it. Suffice it to say whoever is president isn't going send me into a tizzy one way or the other. Yeah. I'm tired of the environment Trump creates with his combative pettiness and the reactions to it.

I can handle that. In other words, you do care, just that there's a limit to your passion.

A few weeks would probably be ok.

Waiting until mid May vs. May 3rd could make a huge difference.

I see where Boeing is going back to work, but they'll be testing their employees and will hire their own contact chasers if one of them test positive. I like that option, put the responsibility of contact chasing on the company. It seems like a fair compromise. You want to re-open your business? Fine. You help us out by taking care of all this extra stuff like tests and contact chasing.

Like we all said before Trump was elected other than I guess Idhawkmen and other Trump supporters, this is the weakest leadership I can recall in my lifetime. Trump is a bully. And Pelosi and McConnell don't seem up to the task of putting the bully back in line. Our leadership from the top down seems pretty weak right now and need a lot better and quick. I wish I had a better person to vote for than BIden next election because I have definitely grown weary of Trump, but Biden seems equally weak.

Biden is, indeed, is a weak candidate, but he's a lot better option than HRC. Hillary was/is way too caustic. Biden is a ground smoother, the type of personality we need to heal some of the scars that Trump has inflicted.

[Aseahawkfan]

I can handle that. In other words, you do care, just that there's a limit to your passion.

When Trump was first elected, the reactions to it were just ridiculous. A virus has done more to change our lives than Trump. I have never understood freaking out over who is president. The president is limited and controlled by design. The leader of a powerful nation, but not a king or dictator able to do what he wants.

I can't react to politicians like my life is going to end or the world. It seems out of line with their power.

Waiting until mid May vs. May 3rd could make a huge difference.

The May 4th day seems good enough. We need companies to have enough juice in the tank to restart and reemploy the furloughed people.

I see where Boeing is going back to work, but they'll be testing their employees and will hire their own contact chasers if one of them test positive. I like that option, put the responsibility of contact chasing on the company. It seems like a fair compromise. You want to re-open your business? Fine. You help us out by taking care of all this extra stuff like tests and contact chasing.

Companies need to share the cost with clear guidelines. If they are not willing to share the cost, they'll end up sharing it with higher taxes, which are likely already coming to pay for all the lost tax revenue the various levels of government will require to recover.

[RiverDog]

When Trump was first elected, the reactions to it were just ridiculous. A virus has done more to change our lives than Trump. I have never understood freaking out over who is president. The president is limited and controlled by design. The leader of a powerful nation, but not a king or dictator able to do what he wants.

I can't react to politicians like my life is going to end or the world. It seems out of line with their power.

For the most part, I'm in agreement. Nearly all the damage that Trump has done, at least to this point, can be repaired.

I see where Boeing is going back to work, but they'll be testing their employees and will hire their own contact chasers if one of them test positive. I like that option, put the responsibility of contact chasing on the company. It seems like a fair compromise. You want to re-open your business? Fine. You help us out by taking care of all this extra stuff like tests and contact chasing.

Companies need to share the cost with clear guidelines. If they are not willing to share the cost, they'll end up sharing it with higher taxes, which are likely already coming to pay for all the lost tax revenue the various levels of government will require to recover.

And they will, at least the big ones with 50+ employees, providing that they are given the opportunity. It is in their best interest to keep their employees healthy. Most are self insured, so a test and a contact tracer is cheaper than paying for a hospitalization. Plus they'll be getting a very tangible PR benefit for their efforts. They can also help change the paradigm by insisting that their employees wear face coverings at all times while on company property, including office workers, management, vendors, visitors, etc. They can give away masks with their logo on them like they do tee shirts and baseball caps.

I don't think we'll be able to get completely back to normal for several years to come. I sincerely doubt that we'll see football games with packed stadiums this season. The travel industry is going to get slammed hard no matter what politicians do with regards to getting the economy restarted. Many restaurants will never re-open, choosing to go out of business instead. And to the chagrin of AOC, who obviously hasn't thought things out, the oil crash will make renewable energy less attractive as the cost differential will be much more dramatic. Mass transit will be a less popular form of commuting as the cost of gas is going to be incredibly cheap while the risk of contracting a communicable disease on a train will weigh on the minds of many.

[Aseahawkfan]

For the most part, I'm in agreement. Nearly all the damage that Trump has done, at least to this point, can be repaired.

Most of the damage he has done is to his own name and family legacy. Fortunately for him, he hasn't got much longer to go. As far as his policies, America was fine, unemployment low, business thriving, and the economics of the nation in good shape. If you mean his virus response, who can say at the moment.

And they will, at least the big ones with 50+ employees, providing that they are given the opportunity. It is in their best interest to keep their employees healthy. Most are self insured, so a test and a contact tracer is cheaper than paying for a hospitalization. Plus they'll be getting a very tangible PR benefit for their efforts. They can also help change the paradigm by insisting that their employees wear face coverings at all times while on company property, including office workers, management, vendors, visitors, etc. They can give away masks with their logo on them like they do tee shirts and baseball caps.

I don't think we'll be able to get completely back to normal for several years to come. I sincerely doubt that we'll see football games with packed stadiums this season. The travel industry is going to get slammed hard no matter what politicians do with regards to getting the economy restarted. Many restaurants will never re-open, choosing to go out of business instead. And to the chagrin of AOC, who obviously hasn't thought things out, the oil crash will make renewable energy less attractive as the cost differential will be much more dramatic. Mass transit will be a less popular form of commuting as the cost of gas is going to be incredibly cheap while the risk of contracting a communicable disease on a train will weigh on the minds of many.

I don't think it will take several years as I think they will have a vaccine by early next year. Once the vaccine is in place, the media will stop pushing the scare tactics. Americans are quick to forget and move on when the media isn't blaring it in their ear. I think we will recover fairly quickly, at least before several years. I'm figuring 2022 by the latest and likely in early 2021. If a Democrat is in office, the left wing media will blast the efficacy of a vaccine and the safeness far and wide to cement their control of the White House. If Trump is in office, they will continue the non-stop fear mongering and likely marginalize the effectiveness of a vaccine leading to a longer return to normalcy. I don't expect Trump wins in November unless he magically gets the economy going and has a vaccine before November.

A vaccine is really the key to a quick return to normalcy. I expect that by September or October or perhaps early 2021 they will roll something out.

[RiverDog]

I don't think it will take several years as I think they will have a vaccine by early next year. Once the vaccine is in place, the media will stop pushing the scare tactics. Americans are quick to forget and move on when the media isn't blaring it in their ear. I think we will recover fairly quickly, at least before several years. I'm figuring 2022 by the latest and likely in early 2021. If a Democrat is in office, the left wing media will blast the efficacy of a vaccine and the safeness far and wide to cement their control of the White House. If Trump is in office, they will continue the non-stop fear mongering and likely marginalize the effectiveness of a vaccine leading to a longer return to normalcy.

A vaccine is really the key to a quick return to normalcy. I expect that by September or October or perhaps early 2021 they will roll something out.

I wouldn't hold my breath on a vaccine being available by this fall, and even if they do, it's going to take months to manufacture and distribute it. And there's always the chance that it won't be as effective as the clinical trials. Only about 6% of all vaccines ever make it to market. And despite what the POTUS says, the virus is highly likely to return this fall, before a vaccine is available. I agree with those that point out that we'll be more prepared this time around, but if it's coupled with a bad outbreak of the flu, the combination could easily overwhelm hospitals this fall like it did a few weeks ago. That's why I think it would be unwise to allow football games to be played in front of 50,000-100,000 fans this fall. That change alone would have a significant effect on the economy. Mass transit systems may be closed or severely limited, forcing businesses to curtail operations.

There are going to be certain industries that will take several years to recover. I doubt that the cruise ship industry recovers very fast. They've projected that 20% of all restaurants will close permanently. With the oil crash, there's a lot of domestic producers that have gone or will go out of business. Many companies, like my former employer, are going to have to come up with a better response plan to a pandemic, re-orientate their work spaces to permit social distancing. Places that serve food will be forced to re-evaluate how they serve it. You can kiss goodbye the free samples at Costco, the continental breakfast at the Holiday Inn, and the salad bar at Pizza Hut. Buffets will be required to have a server rather than help yourself, like at a cafeteria, rather than everyone putting their meat hooks on something then changing their minds and returning it to the counter. Those changes aren't going to be cheap, and costs will be passed onto the consumer. I fully expect Congress to make such changes mandatory as part of their own response.

I'm not trying to match your Debbie Downerism, but I don't think the economy is going to quickly return to the levels it was just prior to the crisis. It's going to be similar to the end of a war where the economy goes into recession for several years, like it did after Vietnam, the Gulf War, and 9/11.

[RiverDog]

I don't expect Trump wins in November unless he magically gets the economy going and has a vaccine before November.

I agree, but then again, I didn't expect him to win in 2016, either, so what do I know?

Trump has really been stubbing his toes lately as his poor work habits, his not preparing for news briefings, his seat-of-the-pants, go-by-gut-feel management style, not running things past his advisors before he goes out to the podium, his love affair with Twitter, his insatiable ego that won't permit him sharing the spotlight with others, and susceptibility to wrap his arms around any snake oil remedy are all coming back to bite him in the arse.

He has been pushing his most popular and respected advisor into the background. Dr. Anthony Fauci has been present at Trump's daily briefings just once in the past 7 days, was not on any of the weekend news outlets last weekend and not scheduled for any appearances this weekend. Polls show that just 23% of the public have a high level of trust of what Trump tells us of the virus. Even amongst his Republican supporters, only about half trust what he says about the virus crisis as accurate, and 22% of them say they have little or no trust in his musings on the virus.

Trump hasn't been helping his cause. The liberal media, Gov. Coumo, and the Congressional Democrats pale in comparison to the self inflicted damage he's been doing to himself. He's his own worst enemy.

[Aseahawkfan]

I wouldn't hold my breath on a vaccine being available by this fall, and even if they do, it's going to take months to manufacture and distribute it. And there's always the chance that it won't be as effective as the clinical trials. Only about 6% of all vaccines ever make it to market. And despite what the POTUS says, the virus is highly likely to return this fall, before a vaccine is available. I agree with those that point out that we'll be more prepared this time around, but if it's coupled with a bad outbreak of the flu, the combination could easily overwhelm hospitals this fall like it did a few weeks ago. That's why I think it would be unwise to allow football games to be played in front of 50,000-100,000 fans this fall. That change alone would have a significant effect on the economy. Mass transit systems may be closed or severely limited, forcing businesses to curtail operations.

Needed vaccines make it to market. Vaccines that were pipe dreams like against cancer or for outbreaks that are not widespread and suddenly disappear like MERS or the original SARS lose momentum. This will not lose momentum. We will have a vaccine unless this one magically disappears and does not return. Which as you stated is unlikely.

Full stadiums won't be back until we have a vaccine or this thing disappears (that would be lucky). Mass transit will likely not shut down. It hasn't yet. People have to be able to travel and not everyone has cars or money for Uber.

There are going to be certain industries that will take several years to recover. I doubt that the cruise ship industry recovers very fast.

With a vaccine cruise ships will recover.

They've projected that 20% of all restaurants will close permanently.

And new restaurants will take their place quickly. Restaurant business is remarkably fluid. They key is getting people employed again.

With the oil crash, there's a lot of domestic producers that have gone or will go out of business.

Oil will not be the same again for a while. Saudi Arabia and Russia really did the job on us at the right time. Once oil rises again of course some players will come back as there is always money to start up a new oil business quickly as they did when shale was first developed, but it will take some time.

Many companies, like my former employer, are going to have to come up with a better response plan to a pandemic, re-orientate their work spaces to permit social distancing. Places that serve food will be forced to re-evaluate how they serve it. You can kiss goodbye the free samples at Costco, the continental breakfast at the Holiday Inn, and the salad bar at Pizza Hut. Buffets will be required to have a server rather than help yourself, like at a cafeteria, rather than everyone putting their meat hooks on something then changing their minds and returning it to the counter. Those changes aren't going to be cheap, and costs will be passed onto the consumer. I fully expect Congress to make such changes mandatory as part of their own response.

For a while at least, until a vaccine. Once the death rate is low enough, people, especially younger people, are going to forget. Hell, they wouldn't even care right now if they weren't forced to. The mortality rate is far lower than it was originally thought and people in general only care about death if it is them. Humans have shown a remarkable propensity to ignore suffering and death when it is not them at all levels of income. The main thing driving them to stay home at the moment is the stay at home orders. Once those are lifted, most younger people will go about their business. Just as they did after the 1918 flu or any other pandemic or war. People are strangely resilient.

What we have to have is places for them to be employed at and that can't happen while forcibly shutdown.

I'm not trying to match your Debbie Downerism, but I don't think the economy is going to quickly return to the levels it was just prior to the crisis. It's going to be similar to the end of a war where the economy goes into recession for several years, like it did after Vietnam, the Gulf War, and 9/11.

It will take a while to get back to pre-crisis levels. And there will be changes, just like after 9/11.

The depth of our recession will depend on how long we remain shutdown. I don't think the economy will remain down for several years. There were different factors affecting the economy during those wars that aren't there now. No situation reacts the same. It wasn't because of those events that economy went down. They just happened to occur when the economy went down. Whereas the shut down orders in response to the corona virus is the direct cause of this economic downturn. Other than the price war in oil, you could reverse a great deal of the damage by lifting the shutdown order. That is what makes this situation very different from the ones you mentioned. We are in essence committing economic suicide to save lives.

[RiverDog]

Needed vaccines make it to market. Vaccines that were pipe dreams like against cancer or for outbreaks that are not widespread and suddenly disappear like MERS or the original SARS lose momentum. This will not lose momentum. We will have a vaccine unless this one magically disappears and does not return. Which as you stated is unlikely.

There's a reason why vaccines take so long to get to market. If they start cutting corners and rush one to market that hasn't been fully vetted, there's a good possibility that it could not be as effective, unanticipated side effects, etc.

Full stadiums won't be back until we have a vaccine or this thing disappears (that would be lucky). Mass transit will likely not shut down. It hasn't yet. People have to be able to travel and not everyone has cars or money for Uber.

Agreed about full stadiums. I can see mass transit cutting back on the number passengers they allow on the platform at one time, only allowing advance tickets with assigned times, etc, if there's another outbreak this fall.

With a vaccine cruise ships will recover.

This isn't the first time cruise ships have had health problems. In the past, they've had health issues with everything from their food supply, their ventilation systems, pest control, even the water quality of their spas. Many of them don't even have a doctor on board, and even if they do, they don't have very much in the way of medical equipment or facilities. Some of those ships carry over 5,000 passengers of all ages and medical needs and are out to sea for weeks. Diseases spread rapidly. There's also complaints about their damaging the environment. This could very well be a business that Congress looks to regulate in the aftermath of the pandemic.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/inv ... 047508002/

They've projected that 20% of all restaurants will close permanently.

And new restaurants will take their place quickly. Restaurant business is remarkably fluid. They key is getting people employed again.

Eventually, yes. But this crisis has scared potential owners, too. It's going to take some time for them to regain enough confidence to quit the day job and take on a small business.

The depth of our recession will depend on how long we remain shutdown.

It's a given that the shutdown isn't going to last more than a couple more weeks. There's no way you can keep people in a country like ours that's used to individual freedoms like we have respecting stay at home orders forever. What's going to determine the depth of the recession is what this virus looks like and how well we react to its resurgence this fall. If it comes back and kills a couple hundred thousand people, the recession will be a deep and lasting one.

[Aseahawkfan]

A resurgence due to a mutation would really suck and be terrible. I hope the government has in place a clear plan and more information on how to function during a pandemic. Economic suicide is a bad way to do this.

We're almost always late to the party throughout our history. Maybe price of being a free nation. It seems to take extreme events to get people at least somewhat unified. I think all our wars had an event that galvanized us to war. Pandemics made people adjust. Economic recessions and depressions. When things are going well Americans tend to be the "leave me alone" type of people. Freedom and an individualistic, open society can be costly in these situations. Unfortunate you can't change your culture when needed like say a Singapore or South Korea. They are far more organized with strong cultural underpinnings encouraging people to trust and obey their government and work in an orderly, unified manner. Americans aren't like that at all. We're an unruly bunch of cusses that seem to walk to the beat of our own drum as the saying goes.

I hope for the sake of our nation we don't have a serious resurgence or we're going to have a real bad few years at least. I do believe that we'll have a vaccine by late this year or early next year and will likely fast track the solution for vulnerable groups if it shows a six month or so efficacy.

[RiverDog]

We're almost always late to the party throughout our history. Maybe price of being a free nation. It seems to take extreme events to get people at least somewhat unified. I think all our wars had an event that galvanized us to war. Pandemics made people adjust. Economic recessions and depressions. When things are going well Americans tend to be the "leave me alone" type of people. Freedom and an individualistic, open society can be costly in these situations. Unfortunate you can't change your culture when needed like say a Singapore or South Korea. They are far more organized with strong cultural underpinnings encouraging people to trust and obey their government and work in an orderly, unified manner. Americans aren't like that at all. We're an unruly bunch of cusses that seem to walk to the beat of our own drum as the saying goes.

I hope for the sake of our nation we don't have a serious resurgence or we're going to have a real bad few years at least. I do believe that we'll have a vaccine by late this year or early next year and will likely fast track the solution for vulnerable groups if it shows a six month or so efficacy.

IMO we still suffer from the isolationism that existed in the 1930's. We have this underlying, subliminal thought that the oceans will protect us, that what happens in Europe and Asia is in some far away place that has no bearing on our lives.

I agree with your analysis of the differences in culture compared to other countries that has hindered our response, but I'll add that one of the biggest reasons for our uncoordinated efforts is the current political and social divide that has separated our country into two different camps. It's as big of a split as I've seen during my lifetime, with the only possible exception being the late 60's. The pandemic was perfectly designed to expose this divide.

I expect a lot of changes, some of them much needed and others superficial, to come down the pike once they've come up with a vaccine and we can safely put this crisis behind us. I mentioned one, which will be heavier regulation of the cruise ship industry. If Biden wins the presidency and the Dems control Congress, you'll see a lot of government involvement, perhaps the creation of a separate, cabinet level department to deal specifically with communicable diseases. We did the same thing in response to the energy crisis in the 70's, created the Department of Energy.

[Hawktawk]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mnuchin- ... 00583.html
Talk about bad budgeting Steve. A 1.7 trillion giveaway to the rich leading to trillion dollar deficits every year of this administration. Bullying Powell into keeping interest rates in the basement in a good economy. Now we are where exactly? Major crisis with no hay in the barn. Where all these Trillions are coming from to bail out big business I have no idea. Nor do I understand why tens of trillions are flowing into purchase of securities by the FED to prop up the markets. Arent they supposed to be high risk? when did they become too big to fail?

Well done goldman sachs guy. Your priorities are well in order.
In other news this awesome administtration Trump tells you every day is doing a great job allowed this https://sports.yahoo.com/lakers-got-fed ... 15027.html
Testing capability is awful still, a fraction of what's needed per capita to open safely. https://news.yahoo.com/the-coronavirus- ... 22804.html

Still I've come to see it Aseas way. We have to open up even though it will cost more lives than waiting for sure. We have to rely on us.
Its becuase government of the united states of america has been worse than belarus in handling this . Utterly inept. No nation has done less with more. They cannot bail us out with these willy nilly rescue packages where the loan site crashes in an hour and publicly traded companies siphon up the money. People are desperate, starving waiting on aid.1 in 4 American families is on the brink. People are missing mortgage and car payments Wall street is getting the bail out again.People are waiting over a month for unemployment . Today i heard he is going to order meat packing plants to remain open even though they are cauldrons of infection due to a lack of PPE and testing . Infected food supply chains, aircraft carriers etc. Yes its an awesome job they are doing.

We have to go to work now or face total collapse and it didn't have to be this way. If we come out of the other side of this we the people better sure as hell do a better job of choosing our leaders and not just our president. This has been ridiculous. Made America great again alright . Greatest number of Coronavirus cases and deaths on earth by a mile and climbing and TRUMP WANTS SOME CREDIT FOR HIS GREAT JOB . He dared tweet the other day that the death toll is artificially elevated to make him look bad. He went there . A more despicable person does not exist .

Thankfully the majority of the country is beginning to see it now.Hes killing himself with independents and some republicans every time he gets up at one of these briefing/campaign appearances. Keep talking Trump. If you kill off a few of your idiot followers with your quack remedies so much the bette r.

[Aseahawkfan]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mnuchin-says-no-bailout-states-131400583.html
Talk about bad budgeting Steve. A 1.7 trillion giveaway to the rich leading to trillion dollar deficits every year of this administration. Bullying Powell into keeping interest rates in the basement in a good economy. Now we are where exactly? Major crisis with no hay in the barn. Where all these Trillions are coming from to bail out big business I have no idea. Nor do I understand why tens of trillions are flowing into purchase of securities by the FED to prop up the markets. Arent they supposed to be high risk? when did they become too big to fail?

Well done goldman sachs guy. Your priorities are well in order.
In other news this awesome administtration Trump tells you every day is doing a great job allowed this https://sports.yahoo.com/lakers-got-fed ... 15027.html
Testing capability is awful still, a fraction of what's needed per capita to open safely. https://news.yahoo.com/the-coronavirus- ... 22804.html

Still I've come to see it Aseas way. We have to open up even though it will cost more lives than waiting for sure. We have to rely on us.
Its becuase government of the united states of america has been worse than belarus in handling this . Utterly inept. No nation has done less with more. They cannot bail us out with these willy nilly rescue packages where the loan site crashes in an hour and publicly traded companies siphon up the money. People are desperate, starving waiting on aid.1 in 4 American families is on the brink. People are missing mortgage and car payments Wall street is getting the bail out again.People are waiting over a month for unemployment . Today i heard he is going to order meat packing plants to remain open even though they are cauldrons of infection due to a lack of PPE and testing . Infected food supply chains, aircraft carriers etc. Yes its an awesome job they are doing.

We have to go to work now or face total collapse and it didn't have to be this way. If we come out of the other side of this we the people better sure as hell do a better job of choosing our leaders and not just our president. This has been ridiculous. Made America great again alright . Greatest number of Coronavirus cases and deaths on earth by a mile and climbing and TRUMP WANTS SOME CREDIT FOR HIS GREAT JOB . He dared tweet the other day that the death toll is artificially elevated to make him look bad. He went there . A more despicable person does not exist .

Thankfully the majority of the country is beginning to see it now.Hes killing himself with independents and some republicans every time he gets up at one of these briefing/campaign appearances. Keep talking Trump. If you kill off a few of your idiot followers with your quack remedies so much the bette r.

They are doing a poor job in my opinion from the top down. The fact we can't look at how South Korea is doing things and implement that is beyond me. We're literally the home of Apple, Google, Facebook, and the biggest tech companies the world as well as the biggest biotechs and many other companies, yet these people can't coordinate with those companies because the idgit president doesn't want to use the Defense Production Act during a global pandemic. A global pandemic is one of the few times when the Defense Production Act should be used. You should be using it to martial all those powerful corporations you have built up with American capitalism to defeat this virus. It's pretty indefensible not to use it at this point.

If he had used it, we probably would have a put in place a system faster to re-open. But Idgit is busy giving briefings and arguing with governors.

This is not how I would do things. I would be martialing our private sector to get our nation operational again, but he's busy yapping and listening to the corporate handout crowd.

[Hawktawk]

First off Asea Id like to say I've become more and more fond of your writings as you are very up to snuff on matters financial far beyond my understanding as well as many other things. I've been educated and your analysis of this pandemic such as predicting months ago we were having infections far earlier than known on the west coast was spot on .

As for our response I agree with you. We had it all. The most advance warning other than China itself due to our intelligence capabilities. We have the best medical system in the world, the best doctors, scientists, digital age geniuses and giants. The biggest economy, the most wealthy nation on the planet.

And we just look ridiculous. We truly have no clue how many are infected or dead 4 months after our first heads up due to the lack of antibody and virus tests.Opening the door now is the great unknown without testing or a single of the states opening having reached the WHs task force criteria of declines for 14 days. Some of the states are still seeing an increase as other countries who opened too early are locked back down now but I dont think it would happen here even if they are dropping like flies.I dont think this administration wants everyone tested and certainly not the huge number of spikes in death rates just before the first case reported.Im certain my 40 year old healthy ex son in law was one dying of a violent bout with pneumonia in western washington in mid Jan.
Trump told business leaders today that "the worst of this is behind us" as he issued a 5 page executive order to meat plants to basically expose their workers to potential death due to the lack of testing capability and PPE.

This is so novel nobody knows what it's eventually going to do.My own MD told me so in a video conference since the clinic is closed. The CDC just issued social distancing guidelines for pets...Tigers, cats, farts etc . I feel so safe knowing there's a stable genius watching over us

Its a sad deal.

[Aseahawkfan]

I gave the dork a break and I won't blame him for a global pandemic. But at this point how can I defend this idiotic response that isn't coming close to using the immense resources of America in an intelligent fashion when you have clear models from other nations for how to do this. I really get the feeling Old Man Trump doesn't understand all of this, so he's listening to his business crony economic people rather than the scientists trying to get this done. It's super tiresome.

Somebody needs to shake the idiot and say, "Use the Defense Production Act, moron. Force tech companies to build contact tracing cross platform into the phones. Force various labs to get out quick testing. Come up with a relief bill paying for quarantined people for a few weeks, then follow up testing to ensure they are clear of the virus. How hard is this to understand you fricking moron? And do it on a Federal level coordinating with the states as this is a threat to our entire nation, not individual states."

This is just stupid at this point. You don't need a blanket policy that shuts everyone down, but Federal guidelines for testing, travel, border control, and an overall Federally coordinated plan is intelligent on a national level.

[RiverDog]

I see now where Trump is using the DPA to force meat and poultry packers to remain open. We have a Tyson Foods meat processing facility in our area, and they just shut it down due to a large outbreak, over 110 positive tests and one death. Although I've never been inside the plant, I know a lot of people that have worked there. They work shoulder to shoulder. It's low paying work, meaning that most workers are immigrants and/or minorities. The plant is about 20 miles out of town, so most carpool, sometimes 4 or 5 per carload. Breaks are taken in a crowded cafeteria and hallways are jam packed, especially at shift changes. It's a perfect incubator for a virus.

We are no where near a situation where our food supply is being threatened. Yes, we may see some shortages this summer, but it's only 2 or 3 basic products, red meat and poultry. But now that Trump has suggested that the problem is this serious, it's sure to trigger more panic buying.

I'm not sure of the legality of this EO. Harry Truman tried to evoke the DPA to force the end of a strike in the steel industry during the Korean War and failed. It sounds to me that Trump is just giving employers like Tyson cover in the event that a lawsuit is filed, so they can say to a family that had a loved one die that the President ordered them to remain open. And of course, you can't sue the federal government.

[Aseahawkfan]

I see now where Trump is using the DPA to force meat and poultry packers to remain open. We have a Tyson Foods meat processing facility in our area, and they just shut it down due to a large outbreak, over 110 positive tests and one death. Although I've never been inside the plant, I know a lot of people that have worked there. They work shoulder to shoulder. It's low paying work, meaning that most workers are immigrants and/or minorities. The plant is about 20 miles out of town, so most carpool, sometimes 4 or 5 per carload. Breaks are taken in a crowded cafeteria and hallways are jam packed, especially at shift changes. It's a perfect incubator for a virus.

We are no where near a situation where our food supply is being threatened. Yes, we may see some shortages this summer, but it's only 2 or 3 basic products, red meat and poultry. But now that Trump has suggested that the problem is this serious, it's sure to trigger more panic buying.

I'm not sure of the legality of this EO. Harry Truman tried to evoke the DPA to force the end of a strike in the steel industry during the Korean War and failed. It sounds to me that Trump is just giving employers like Tyson cover in the event that a lawsuit is filed, so they can say to a family that had a loved one die that the President ordered them to remain open. And of course, you can't sue the federal government.

You don't think the president can use the DPA legally to force private industry to create what we need to make this work? I thought you said earlier he did in regards to PPE.

[RiverDog]

You don't think the president can use the DPA legally to force private industry to create what we need to make this work? I thought you said earlier he did in regards to PPE.

Several differences: There was an identifiable, urgent need for PPE's. There is no such need for meat and poultry products, at least not yet. Hell, we'd probably be better off health-wise if we had to eat vegetables and grains instead of meat.

Secondly, in the case of PPE production, there was no imminent threat to the health of the workers or their contacts. That is obviously not the case with the current EO and the meat and poultry workers.

I don't think that Trump would have a snowball's chance in hell of sustaining this order if it were to be taken to court, and I think that even he knows that. What it does do is gives employers like Tyson legal cover if they were to be sued over the decision to resume production.

[Aseahawkfan]

Several differences: There was an identifiable, urgent need for PPE's. There is no such need for meat and poultry products, at least not yet. Hell, we'd probably be better off health-wise if we had to eat vegetables and grains instead of meat.

Most people could use more fruits and vegetables, grains not as much, though animal protein is a very good source of nutrients people to do eat too much.

Food is pretty essential. If meat was short, people would panic buy certain vegetables likely causing shortages there. I imagine there are agricultural shortages out there as well. One of my co-workers just told me Dick's Burgers stopped selling French Fries because fresh potatoes are hard to find right now. I'm surprised as I heard nothing about it, but a business wouldn't stop one of their key selling items unless there was supply problem. I know I've seen lots of empty potato sections. So a shortage of food in one area may cause panic buying in another area creating further shortages.

Secondly, in the case of PPE production, there was no imminent threat to the health of the workers or their contacts. That is obviously not the case with the current EO and the meat and poultry workers.

That we know of. What we found out during the PPE shortage is that much of the manufacturing for PPE is outside the nation. You can't order a company to order another country to manufacture more of the items you need as the Defense Production Act only applies to domestic production and is unenforceable for companies with oversea production like 3M. Just another one of the many problems we've found with our current economic structure when it comes to national security that needs to be fixed after this, since our leaders obviously weren't thinking this one through too well when they allowed PPE production to go overseas to start with.

In essence given production of PPEs is outside the nation, that nation could use a similar act to force those companies to produce for their nation why we're looking from the outside window wondering why we have no domestic PPE production. Wouldn't that be something? You know as much as you don't like Trump, he's right about the amount of manufacturing we've let leave the nation, especially finding out our PPE and drug material production is done outside the nation.

I don't think that Trump would have a snowball's chance in hell of sustaining this order if it were to be taken to court, and I think that even he knows that. What it does do is gives employers like Tyson legal cover if they were to be sued over the decision to resume production.

I think it would depend if he could show a supply shock in other food areas afterwards and then other major suppliers followed suit shutting down agricultural production for the same reason as meat causing a cascading effect that hammered the food supply.

I don't know if you've done much reading on this, but they are killing thousands of chickens and pigs because of these plants shutting down. It's no joke how much pork and poultry they are destroying right now. Where do you think all those panic buyers will go if chicken and pork are gone from the shelves? Do you want to compete for beans, beef, and potatoes if the pork and chicken are gone in grocery stores?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-livestock-insight/piglets-aborted-chickens-gassed-as-pandemic-slams-meat-sector-idUSKCN2292YS

So I'm not sure I agree with you on this one. I think any aspect of the food supply shutting down making it legally possible for food suppliers to shutdown due to coronavirus outbreaks could lead to a huge supply shock in the food supply chain causing a cascading effect which would be devastating to our nation and the world food supply. I think the White House could make this one stick.

[RiverDog]

Food is pretty essential. If meat was short, people would panic buy certain vegetables likely causing shortages there. I imagine there are agricultural shortages out there as well. One of my co-workers just told me Dick's Burgers stopped selling French Fries because fresh potatoes are hard to find right now. I'm surprised as I heard nothing about it, but a business wouldn't stop one of their key selling items unless there was supply problem. I know I've seen lots of empty potato sections. So a shortage of food in one area may cause panic buying in another area creating further shortages.

I doubt you'll see too much of a run on fresh fruits and vegetables. With the exception of tree fruits like apples and cherries, they can't be hoarded like meat and poultry can as unless you process them, they can't be preserved beyond a few weeks so you can't buy more than what you can eat in that amount of time. Most fruit and vegetables found on our shelves in the winter, save a few that are produced in greenhouses, are grown in Mexico and Central/South America, and so far, those areas haven't been hit by the virus, either due to the hot and humid climate or reporting issues. As far as potatoes go, fresh potatoes, onions, and other root vegetables have a longer shelf life, but you have to keep them cool, and this time of year, they'll sprout unless you keep them in your fridge. Storing them under the sink or in the garage won't work in the summer.

Back to meat and poultry. I've read where we still have a quite large supply of those products but they're in frozen warehouses. Sometimes panic buying will cause stores to temporarily run out as the transportation pipeline is timed to match demand.

I don't think that Trump would have a snowball's chance in hell of sustaining this order if it were to be taken to court, and I think that even he knows that. What it does do is gives employers like Tyson legal cover if they were to be sued over the decision to resume production.

I think it would depend if he could show a supply shock in other food areas afterwards and then other major suppliers followed suit shutting down agricultural production for the same reason as meat causing a cascading effect that hammered the food supply.

I've worked in the vegetable processing industry for 40 years and worked with many friends and former employees that have worked at a nearby meat packing plant that I've referenced. Meat and poultry processing are a lot different in that they employ 2-3 times the numbers we do and work in much more confined spaces closer to other workers. My former employer reports that they've been able to keep operating but have had to shut some plants down occasionally when they've had an employee test positive. One of my friends from work is under quarantine at this time. It's a challenge for them to operate, but they're doing it. The meat packing plant, on the other hand, has had 126 positive tests and counting. They've shut down and vowed to test every one of their 1400 employees.

https://www.tri-cityherald.com/news/cor ... 30131.html

I don't know if you've done much reading on this, but they are killing thousands of chickens and pigs because of these plants shutting down. It's no joke how much pork and poultry they are destroying right now. Where do you think all those panic buyers will go if chicken and pork are gone from the shelves? Do you want to compete for beans, beef, and potatoes if the pork and chicken are gone in grocery stores?

You're right, I haven't heard of that. Thanks for the link, I'll check it out.

Canned, packaged, frozen, and other processed foods have much higher inventories and can absorb the added demand, at least for a period of time. We may see shortages of certain types of food in certain locations, but we're not going to go hungry. Hoarders are a bigger threat. They may have to go to a rationing system like they did during WW2, but we're not going to starve.

So I'm not sure I agree with you on this one. I think any aspect of the food supply shutting down making it legally possible for food suppliers to shutdown due to coronavirus outbreaks could lead to a huge supply shock in the food supply chain causing a cascading effect which would be devastating to our nation and the world food supply. I think the White House could make this one stick.

A lot depends on the employees at these facilities. Their unions are dead set against it. If they refuse to go back in, I have a hard time seeing the courts siding with the POTUS. It's going to be up to him to show that there's a need, and at least at this point, we're not there yet. There is a precedent he would have to overcome. Harry Truman lost a 6-3 decision in SCOTUS when he tried to take over steel mills during the Korean War under the very same DPA.

I find it ironic that the POTUS considers these workers so essential that he's using the DPA to order them back to work. Most of these workers are low paid, entry level immigrants and minorities. If you read the article I liked, there are 11 different languages spoken in that one plant. Some may be undocumented. Agricultural work is even more heavily laden with immigrants and have a higher percentage of illegals amongst the workforce. If we do have a genuine food shortage, the plight of those workers and how they are treated will come to light, and it's not going to favor the POTUS as he's spent the past 4 years demonizing them. He's opening up a can of worms that Biden can exploit in the fall.

[RiverDog]

We had it all. The most advance warning other than China itself due to our intelligence capabilities. We have the best medical system in the world, the best doctors, scientists, digital age geniuses and giants. The biggest economy, the most wealthy nation on the planet.

And we just look ridiculous. We truly have no clue how many are infected or dead 4 months after our first heads up due to the lack of antibody and virus tests.Opening the door now is the great unknown without testing or a single of the states opening having reached the WHs task force criteria of declines for 14 days. Some of the states are still seeing an increase as other countries who opened too early are locked back down now but I dont think it would happen here even if they are dropping like flies.I dont think this administration wants everyone tested and certainly not the huge number of spikes in death rates just before the first case reported.Im certain my 40 year old healthy ex son in law was one dying of a violent bout with pneumonia in western washington in mid Jan.

I agree with you that Trump responded horribly. I don't think there's much doubt about it as he continues to demonstrate the same ignorance that he no doubt did back in January and February. This virus is like a fire. Time counts. Two weeks is a lifetime when you consider how fast this thing spreads.

But he is far from the only villain. The CDC in particular was extremely incompetent, violating their own protocols, and screwed up the testing so badly that it created weeks long backlogs in processing tests and acting on those results. You can't hang that on Trump.

[Hawktawk]

I gave the dork a break and I won't blame him for a global pandemic. But at this point how can I defend this idiotic response that isn't coming close to using the immense resources of America in an intelligent fashion when you have clear models from other nations for how to do this. I really get the feeling Old Man Trump doesn't understand all of this, so he's listening to his business crony economic people rather than the scientists trying to get this done. It's super tiresome.

Somebody needs to shake the idiot and say, "Use the Defense Production Act, moron. Force tech companies to build contact tracing cross platform into the phones. Force various labs to get out quick testing. Come up with a relief bill paying for quarantined people for a few weeks, then follow up testing to ensure they are clear of the virus. How hard is this to understand you fricking moron? And do it on a Federal level coordinating with the states as this is a threat to our entire nation, not individual states."

This is just stupid at this point. You don't need a blanket policy that shuts everyone down, but Federal guidelines for testing, travel, border control, and an overall Federally coordinated plan is intelligent on a national level.

Nothing to disagree with here. Nobody blames Trump for this virus being in America. I blame him for how damn much of it is in america as states that went out even week or 2 ahead slowed their infection rate much quicker. Its learned he had 11 separate warnings in his intelligence briefs from Jan 3 on and only discounted them, called them alarmist . ZERO preparations.

And as you say this result has been abysmal. There was clearly no plan whatsoever, a mad scramble after trump basically gave a one day about face from a hoax and said shelter or lose 250K lives. In the meantime he dithered for months before somewhat invoking the DPA that's still not fully deployed. After first activating it Trump said something to the effect "we dont force american companies to build things".It was several weeks before he ordered anyone to do anything and US PPE manufacturers were being allowed to sell 40% of their masks abroad at 4X inflated prices till early march as Medical responders were wearing scarfs and garbage bags for weeks.

It's been a disorganized joke from the top down. As opposed to the pandemic model in many european countries that was turnkey, in place for a long time that compensates workers and businesses nearly 100% for up to a year. No billionaire bailouts or propping up the financial markets. Of course this type of plan requires socking away a lot of money and business and citizens need to pay more taxes for that.

[c_hawkbob]

The level of culpability between Trump and the CDC is not even remotely comparable. The CDC started issuing warnings and taking actions (like having representative in airports to screen travelers from China) in January, while Trump was still in full denial mode. If he'd followed their lead, as would have been appropriate, we wouldn't near the crisis we're facing now. He is personally responsible for thousands of lives. Stop trying to minimize his impact with false equivalencies. The CDC isn't without some blame in this situation but they weren't the malignancy he is.

[RiverDog]

The level of culpability between Trump and the CDC is not even remotely comparable. The CDC started issuing warnings and taking actions (like having representative in airports to screen travelers from China) in January, while Trump was still in full denial mode. If he'd followed their lead, as would have been appropriate, we wouldn't near the crisis we're facing now. He is personally responsible for thousands of lives. Stop trying to minimize his impact with false equivalencies. The CDC isn't without some blame in this situation but they weren't the malignancy he is.

Do you guys remember when my brother-in-law was tested for COVID-19? That was in early March. It took 10 days for them to get the results back. Why? Because the CDC f&ucked up the test kits when they violated their own protocols by testing the units in their own lab rather than at the production facilities and contaminated them, causing false positive results. They were late getting the kits out in the first place because they insisted on developing their own rather than using the ones Europe offered us then caused a backlog that lasted well into March. We're STILL behind the curve regarding testing.

I'm not going to say that their transgressions were worse than those of the Trump administration, but there is no doubt that their screw ups cost hundreds if not thousands of lives and set back our effort by weeks.

[c_hawkbob]

Sure there were defective tests and much time was lost trying to get effective tests, but Trump can share in that as well as he refused to use the WHO testing protocol they had developed in favor of starting from scratch for ourselves. Even that though isn't what I'm talking about with Trump. Mistakes are one thing, we're all human and we all make mistakes, and it's not unusual for the US to decline known procedures in favor of developing our own. It certainly didn't help, but it pales in comparison to Trump's willful actions against the advise of his own experts for 2 full months before finally admitting there was something to it and his constant twitter nonsense touting miracle cures and inciting resistance in, and refusing to help states or or cities based on the political parties by which they are lead.

[RiverDog]

Sure there were defective tests and much time was lost trying to get effective tests, but Trump can share in that as well as he refused to use the WHO testing protocol they had developed in favor of starting from scratch for ourselves. Even that though isn't what I'm talking about with Trump.

I haven't read anything that indicates that Trump had a hand in the CDC's decision to not use the WHO's test kits. As a matter of fact, the CDC typically develops its own tests:

As the United States struggled to launch testing for the novel coronavirus using kits developed by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the World Health Organization shipped hundreds of thousands of tests to countries around the world.

No discussions occurred between WHO and the CDC about providing tests to the United States, WHO spokesperson Tarik Jasarevic told CNN on Tuesday, and WHO did not offer coronavirus tests to the CDC.

The United States, Jasarevic confirmed, doesn't ordinarily rely on WHO for tests because the US typically has the capacity to manufacture its own diagnostics.

"We actually do have laboratory diagnostics here at CDC that are stood up," said Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases."

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/18/health/w ... index.html

It's pretty clear that it was the CDC's institutionalized insistence on manufacturing their own test kits rather than relying on others. If you have information to the contrary, ie that Trump somehow intervened and was responsible for the delays, I'd be delighted to read it.

Mistakes are one thing, we're all human and we all make mistakes, and it's not unusual for the US to decline known procedures in favor of developing our own. It certainly didn't help,but it pales in comparison to Trump's willful actions against the advise of his own experts for 2 full months before finally admitting there was something to it and his constant twitter nonsense touting miracle cures and inciting resistance in, and refusing to help states or or cities based on the political parties by which they are lead.

Saying that the mistakes "certainly didn't help" is a gross understatement, and I never characterized the CDC's mistakes as being anything more than human or unintentional. But they were mistakes, perhaps based on ego or a certain smugness that we HAVE to have OUR OWN tests rather than relying on some other inferior organization's work. Time was of the essence, and at least in hindsight, the CDC should have recognized that fact when they saw how fast this disease had spread throughout Italy and other countries and broke with tradition and used the WHO/European tests.

Given the CDC's failures, I'm not sure how much of a difference it would have made had Trump behaved in a responsible manner. As so many have said and continue to say, the key to stopping this virus is testing, and our government blew it big time.

Please do not interpret my statements as defending Donald Trump or excusing his complete ineptness in handling this crisis, which continues as we speak.