Sweden's Failed Experiment

[RiverDog]

Here’s a comparison I’ve been working on between 4 Scandinavian countries to argue with my friend that was advocating that rather than locking down our country that we should be pursuing herd immunity as a strategy. As you might have heard, Sweden chose not to shut down most businesses as nearly all other countries have. The results so far are striking:


Norway: Population: 5.37 million (2020) Population density: 17.0 per km. Median Age: 39.2 ICU beds: 8.0 per 100k. First confirmed case: February 26th.

Lockdown began on March 12th despite not having any recorded deaths. They closed all schools, resteraunts, personal care services, spas, gyms, swimming pools, and sporting events. Required a two week quarantine for all international arrivals.

Finland: Population: 5.52 million (2018) Population density: 16.6 per km. Median age: 42.5 ICU beds: 6.1 per 100k. First confirmed case: January 29th

Lockdown began on Wednesday, March 18th. Schools were closed. Parents in jobs critical to the functioning of society who had children in grades 1-3 were allowed to send their children to specially-arranged care. The country also banned all gatherings of more than ten people and closed museums, theatres, the national opera, libraries, mobile libraries, hobby facilities and swimming pools, youth clubs and other gathering points and recommended that third sector organizations and religious congregations do the same. Passenger traffic to Finland was suspended with the exception of returning Finnish citizens and residents. There were also a raft of measures affecting the public sector and healthcare providers, as the government prohibited visits to elderly care facilities. Visits to hospitals and other health care facilities were restricted on a case-by-case basis for critically-ill relatives in a hospice or at maternity wards.

Denmark Population: 5.83 million (2019) Population density: 137 per sq km. Median age: 42.2 ICU beds: 6.7 per 100k. First confirmed case: February 26th.

On March 13th, the country restricted public assembly to 10 or fewer people and ordered the closure of schools, universities, day cares, restaurants, cafes, libraries, gyms and hair salons.

Sweden: Population: 10.33 Million (2020) Population density: 22.5 per sq km. Median age: 41.2 ICU beds: 5.8 per 100k. First confirmed case: January 31st.

Banned gatherings of 50+. High schools and middle schools were closed while colleges and universities moved to online instruction. No other mandatory restrictions were in place. Museums, bars, restaurants, gyms, malls, elementary schools, and nightclubs all remained open while residents were encouraged to follow guidelines for personal hygiene and social distancing.

Score Card

Norway: Total deaths: 238 Deaths per million residents: 44.7
Finland: Total deaths: 322 Deaths per million residents: 58.35
Denmark: Total deaths: 582 Deaths per million residents: 100.39
Sweden: Total deaths: 4,562 Deaths per million residents: 447.99

United States: Total deaths: 108,058. Deaths per million residents: 330.28


https://www.statista.com/statistics/110 ... habitants/

https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Num ... _229013572

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_c ... median_age

[RiverDog]

All 4 countries are close neighbors and share relatively the same demographics and degree of hospital capacities, so they make for a good model as there's no glaring exception amongst the 4 as there would be if one were to include a country with an aged population, such as Japan or Italy or one from a different economic and social structure and a very limited ICU capability, such as Brazil. I only added the data on the United States so as to provide some contrast with the Scandinavian countries.

With the exception of Sweden, the death rate pretty much fits the differences in population density. Norway (17.0/km2) and Finland (16.6 km2) are both very sparsely populated and as you would expect, their death rates are relatively modest. Denmark, on the other hand, has a much higher population density than any of the other 3, and their death rate shows it, twice as high as Norway and Finland's.

But the real eye opener is Sweden. Their population density is just half of what it is in Denmark yet their death rate is 4.5 times as high. The difference has to be in their response, as they have imposed the least restrictive measures of any European country, relying instead on voluntary actions of their citizens.

And the bad thing about it is that experts say that Sweden isn't anywhere close to achieving herd immunity and their economy, due to its being linked to other countries in the European Union is expected to suffer right along with their neighbors that took much more drastic measures:

Sweden is still nowhere near 'herd immunity,' even though it didn't go into lockdown

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/21/health/s ... index.html

Sweden had no lockdown but its economy is expected to suffer just as badly as its European neighbors

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/coronav ... urope.html

To be fair, we're only about a third of the way through this pandemic as a vaccine is still many months away, so the final score card could change between now and this time next year. But at this point, the evidence is clear and the conclusions inescapable.

[Hawktawk]

Yes RD and lets remember it isnt exacly like the world is flocking to Sweden like they do America bringing in this virus. Also these numbers are generated in a highly socialist country with superb government health care. Ive been in the country as a child as the son of a Swedish immigrant and its an orderly peaceful compliant society. Their economy is basically export based and would suffer due to the economic downturn regardless. There is no excuse for many of these deaths in a country like Sweden.

[RiverDog]

Yes RD and lets remember it isnt exacly like the world is flocking to Sweden like they do America bringing in this virus. Also these numbers are generated in a highly socialist country with superb government health care. Ive been in the country as a child as the son of a Swedish immigrant and its an orderly peaceful compliant society. Their economy is basically export based and would suffer due to the economic downturn regardless. There is no excuse for many of these deaths in a country like Sweden.

I'm not sure how much of a factor the quality of health care is with regard to this current pandemic. Almost all of western Europe, including the UK, Spain, Italy, Belgium, France, Sweden, Ireland, and Holland, countries with what we have been told has the world's finest health care systems, all are recording more deaths per capita than we've had so far in this country.

The keys seems to be a country's preparedness and their response, and as you've just indicated in your comments about Sweden, they have a very good health care system so there's no reason why they should be in such bad shape vs. a country like Denmark.

But I do agree that there's no excuse for Sweden. They have an advantage over us in the form of their form of government. One of the things that's complicating the US response is our patchwork of 50 states all going in opposite directions. That's not the case in Europe.

There is some good news. The unemployment rate fell to just over 13% and the stock market has regained most of their initial losses. There's also been some promising vaccines that could be ready by as early as January, and if they are successful, we should be back to near normal by this time next year.

[Hawktawk]

I think asea is the one to ask WTH is going on with the markets but Ive read the Fed has pumped over 10 Trillion they got from the priniting press or whatever into it. They were already pumping it starting last Sept. If that's the case its immoral, screwing future generations to reward investors for our governmental incompetence. This bailout looks 10 times worse than any of the others Ive seen in my lifetime. Cramer has called it the greatest transfer of wealth in the history of the planet.Unemployment was calcualted wrong as well and is closer to 16 % right now. But signs are good . It stands to reason there will be economic activity increasing significantly minus a vicious return of this virus but hopefully that does not mask the need for change in the oval office. its dire.

[RiverDog]

I think asea is the one to ask WTH is going on with the markets but Ive read the Fed has pumped over 10 Trillion they got from the priniting press or whatever into it. They were already pumping it starting last Sept. If that's the case its immoral, screwing future generations to reward investors for our governmental incompetence. This bailout looks 10 times worse than any of the others Ive seen in my lifetime. Cramer has called it the greatest transfer of wealth in the history of the planet.Unemployment was calcualted wrong as well and is closer to 16 % right now. But signs are good . It stands to reason there will be economic activity increasing significantly minus a vicious return of this virus but hopefully that does not mask the need for change in the oval office. its dire.

The markets don't necessarily jive with the economy. They are speculative and a leading indicator of the economy of the future. In this case, unemployment was artificially high as many, perhaps even most, of those that were unemployed were obviously going to get their jobs back. My dental hygienist was unemployed. I suspect that in the coming months, we'll settle in with around 6-8% unemployed, or about what it was in the early 80's (part of Jimmy Carter's misery index). That's still horrendous compared to what it was pre-coronavirus.

The bailout, as imperfect as it was, was absolutely critical. There's a lot of businesses that wouldn't have been able to survive the 3 month shut down and the reduced business/increased costs involved in the rolling start-up. The government had to act and do so quickly. They didn't have time to craft legislation that would pass both Houses and get signed into law by the POTUS, so they used the shotgun approach.

[RiverDog]

There's now a debate going on as to whether or not COVID-19 is losing its potency. Apparently the head of intensive care at a hospital in Lombardy, Italy, the region which bore the brunt of the crisis back in March, has claimed that "clinically the virus no longer exists". Apparently there's a difference in those that are being infected now vs. those that fell ill back in March. But a number of other experts on the disease say that the claim is not supported with evidence and warn of the dangers of falling for fool's gold.

https://news.yahoo.com/no-evidence-pote ... 09274.html

[Aseahawkfan]

I see you posting articles from CNN. A news agency that was going out of it's way to attack Sweden and it's decision to not lock down. I see you posted articles that don't post real data, merely speculation. Which we'll see if it is true soon. I don't trust CNN or any of these liberal rags that attacked every nation not engaging in lock downs as they believed was correct.

We have different ideas of "failed." I would much rather have followed the Swedish model. Their healthcare system was not even close to overloaded. I see you skewing the numbers by per 1 million rather than just raw numbers. They lost around 4600 people so far. That is not even close to 1 percent or any of this trash talk of 3 or 4%. It is pure speculation that they have anywhere near the economic damage those articles state. They did not have to engage in the same stimulus levels. They were able to weather the storm relatively unscathed.

Sweden loses about 90 to 100,000 per year. How many of the people that passed would have passed regardless of COVID19? Will Sweden's death rate exceed their normal death rate due to COVID19 or did COVID19 accelerate the demise of people that were already going to die? I will look at their numbers at the end of the year.

If Sweden's number of yearly deaths remains constant even with COVID19 and they lost mainly folk that were likely to pass regardless, then I will consider their model more successful.

I have followed Sweden's handling of this virus. Their main concern was that they did not prevent the virus from entering retirement homes. They plan to take stronger measures if this should occur again to prevent entry into the homes of older Swedes.

I will not support a full lock down again. The Swedish model is much more intelligent, well thought out, and can be improved upon to prevent the insane amount of economic damage that occurred and we have not recovered from on a worldwide scale yet.

And Sweden suffering from the moves of the international community is nothing they could have controlled. We shall see how things go. I love how you joined in the skewed numbers rather than the raw numbers indicating this virus was far, far, far less lethal than originally sold.

So let's just say I don't agree that the evidence is as strong as you are leading people to believe with the skewed numbers. I'll support the Swedish model over what we did that lead to severe economic damage, a juiced economy, the acceleration of the national debt, and protests and riots on a level we haven't seen in decades. Sweden should work on improving on what they did, not following what the rest of the world did so that this kind of trash doesn't happen again.

As far as the data I will be looking at when the year wraps up:
1. Did the overall death rate fall for nations who locked down? I want to know if we lower the overall death toll or COVID19 accelerated the death of people who were already going to die.

2. Did the healthcare system get overloaded? Or did we underload the healthcare system causing death, unemployment, and associated problems by not caring for non-COVID patients.

3. Was the economic damage worth the life savings? As in did we reduce the death rate to lower than the common death rate for a year by locking down making the economic cost worth the lives saved in lock down?

I'm glad Sweden did what they did. If Sweden had not, we would not have a nation to study that shows the differences in economic damage and lives lost by not locking down versus economic damage and lives lost by locking down. We needed that marker to measure if locking down is a good idea that prevents deaths not just from COVID19, but the overall death rate versus the economic damage done by locking down. If there is little proof that the overall death rate is reduced to justify the economic damage, then in the future the Swedish model is the better model.