Is Trump Starting to Wear Down?

[Aseahawkfan]

The guys is an accomplished historian, so he might have some insight - but what do I know?

I think if Trump loses, he will try to use the courts that he's stacked to extend his reign as long as possible
and possibly steal the election. This could get real ugly for a long time.

Trump's lawsuit may last as long as Gore's lawsuit. But the party will talk him down and he'll be out soon enough. He doesn't have enough friends in Washington, just enough money and lawyers to keep him from any real charges.

[RiverDog]

The guys is an accomplished historian, so he might have some insight - but what do I know?

I think if Trump loses, he will try to use the courts that he's stacked to extend his reign as long as possible
and possibly steal the election. This could get real ugly for a long time.

Trump's lawsuit may last as long as Gore's lawsuit. But the party will talk him down and he'll be out soon enough. He doesn't have enough friends in Washington, just enough money and lawyers to keep him from any real charges.

Gore isn't the one who sued. Bush sued to stop the recount, successfully arguing that it violated the Equal Protection Clause of the US Constitution because it treated votes in some counties differently than others.

But I get what you're saying. Trump's influence over the R pols does not extend to helping him remain in power if he loses the election. Once the electoral college casts their votes, he'll be out, and the slickest lawyer won't do him any good. That was the reason why the Supreme Court expedited the Bush lawsuit, because they were bumping up against federal law governing when the electoral college was seated and when they were to cast their votes.

[I-5]

Biden is not capable intellectually and cognitively to handle the job.

This is a common refrain I hear about Biden from almost every Trump supporter, but I don't understand where the narrative comes from. Is there evidence for this statement and how does it reflect on the current president's many gaffe's (to put gross innacuracies, inability to pronounce simple words, in the mildest way possible).

[I-5]

It should be obvious to anyone watching over the years that wealthy and powerful people run by a different set of rules around the world.

They do run by different rules, but there always examples to the opposite: Bernie Madoff,Jeffrey Epstein, Martha Stewart to name a few. If anyone could get away scot-free, it would be Trump who has spent his life doing just that.

[Aseahawkfan]

They do run by different rules, but there always examples to the opposite: Bernie Madoff,Jeffrey Epstein, Martha Stewart to name a few. If anyone could get away scot-free, it would be Trump who has spent his life doing just that.

Madoff went to jail in 70s. Still has hundreds of millions.

Epstein abused women for 30 plus years? And was killed by other wealthy people.

Martha Stewart's empire is still intact and she's back to making millions. Not even sure she paid a bigger fine than she made.

I'm still not sure whatever they find with Trump will be enough to take him down, but we shall see. Sure seems to me like he can argue this is a political hit job considering he seemed to avoid legal tax troubles for 40 plus years until the Democrats decided it was legal to crawl up his backside after he turned against them. I wonder if he has any dirt on them with payoffs and the like. Should be interesting to see, since he has contacts in New York. I imagine he can play some real hardball if they push him to it taking other people down with him. I feel bad for the next Democratic president when the Republicans have full power in Congress. Republicans will be looking for payback and the next Democratic president will have a big old target on his back. Then again this is the game both sides play. You embarrass and harass us, we embarrass and harass you. No one seems bulletproof enough to withstand the attacks, though Trump is wealthier than most and putting up a better fight for an inexperienced politician. These are shark waters filled with lawyer politicians who can pin some kind of crime on almost anyone using our byzantine legal system. No regular person can withstand that kind of legal assault.

[RiverDog]

It should be obvious to anyone watching over the years that wealthy and powerful people run by a different set of rules around the world.

They do run by different rules, but there always examples to the opposite: Bernie Madoff,Jeffrey Epstein, Martha Stewart to name a few. If anyone could get away scot-free, it would be Trump who has spent his life doing just that.

I'm not sure if the wealthy and powerful get away with fraud at a higher rate than the little guys do or not. I'm sure that enhanced computerization has changed things nowadays, but back in the early 90's, I had an IRS agent tell me that they had just one agent to cover all of eastern Washington and that they didn't even bother with individual returns under $50k. I remember Michael Dukakis making it a campaign issue in '88, that he wanted to hire more IRS agents because there were so many people cheating on their taxes that it represented a huge loss of income for the government.

[Hawktawk]

Although I'm not going to join you in your over the top rhetoric or accept your premise that every Trump voter is essentially possessed by the Devil, I agree in principle with most of what you've said.

But in relation to your fears of the military having to intervene, here's a comment from the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff that hopefully alleviates some of your fears:

“I foresee no role for the U.S armed forces in this process,” Gen. Mark Milley stated in written responses released Friday to questions from two Democrats on the House Armed Services Committee.

“In the event of a dispute over some aspect of the elections, by law U.S. courts and the U.S. Congress are required to resolve any disputes, not the U.S. military ... We will not turn our backs on the Constitution of the United States.”

Asked if the military would refuse an order from the president if Trump was attempting to use military action for political gain rather than for national security, Milley responded: “I will not follow an unlawful order.”

Like I said earlier, every person that has entered the military has a sworn duty to uphold the Constitution, and as numerous military tribunals have shown, military officers and enlisted personnel are legally and morally obligated NOT to follow an illegal order, even one from the Commander-in-Chief.



https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/29/top-us- ... -vote.html

Additionally, any resistance to a peaceful transition would have to include the cooperation of a large number of cabinet members. Even William Barr wouldn't go to that extreme so as to resist a peaceful transition. None of them are going to take a bullet for Trump.

Milley's comments were several weeks ago. Things have changed a lot. Trumps chief of staff Mark Meadows doubled down on it today in an interview. He may not leave.

There is no such thing as over the top rhetoric regarding Trump. Sickening, disgusting. The man is an evil madman.

As for his voters his base is who I say they are. There are issue voters, ideology voters that dont like the tactics but like the policies. They are my family and friends and i will always love them but i will always see them in a bit different light. In the america I remember faintly the guy wouldnt sniff the WH.

[RiverDog]

Milley's comments were several weeks ago. Things have changed a lot. Trumps chief of staff Mark Meadows doubled down on it today in an interview. He may not leave.

Trump is simply shaking guys like you up, taunting you in order to create as much chaos and uncertainty as possible, and you're taking the bait.

It doesn't matter whether Milley's comments were this morning, two weeks ago, or two years ago. They are still what he believes. Even Biden is saying that he believes that Trump will leave peacefully and that he's just stirring things up. Here's what he had to say:

Still, Biden said Wednesday, he believes if Trump has lost the election, military leaders would not allow him to refuse to leave office.
Saying he was "so damn proud" of the military leaders who have recently criticized Trump, Biden continued, "you have so many rank and file military personnel saying, well, we're not a military state, this is not who we are. I promise you, I'm absolutely convinced, they will escort him from the White House in a dispatch."

And here's what Moscow Mitch had to say about the issue:

“The winner of the November 3rd election will be inaugurated on January 20th. There will be an orderly transition just as there has been every four years since 1792,” McConnell (R-Ky.) tweeted.

As for his voters his base is who I say they are. There are issue voters, ideology voters that dont like the tactics but like the policies. They are my family and friends and i will always love them but i will always see them in a bit different light. In the america I remember faintly the guy wouldnt sniff the WH.

That sounds a little better than calling Trump supporters 'deplorables' like you did in your previous comments. People have different criteria they use to make their decisions on who to vote for. Many people simply vote a straight ticket no matter what. Others are single issue voters, like abortion or defense. Some people think that character matters, others will say that we're electing a President, not a Pope. I may not agree with them but I'm not going to let my political differences affect my personal relationship with them. And btw, I have at least one family member that voted for Trump in 2016 but is hedging this time around.

Hang in there, buddy! We're less than 6 weeks away from the election. Biden is going to win by several states. Trust me.

[MackStrongIsMyHero]

I only see Trump not going quietly if there is legitimate evidence that mail-in voting had issues that swung the election. I think it can be done right, but it is also unprecedented. No presidential election has been held with mail-in voting available on this scale. That it has been done for limited cases is encouraging, but it does leave the possibility for issues. If he wins with mass mail-in voting I could even see the Dems calling into question.

[Aseahawkfan]

I'm not sure if the wealthy and powerful get away with fraud at a higher rate than the little guys do or not. I'm sure that enhanced computerization has changed things nowadays, but back in the early 90's, I had an IRS agent tell me that they had just one agent to cover all of eastern Washington and that they didn't even bother with individual returns under $50k. I remember Michael Dukakis making it a campaign issue in '88, that he wanted to hire more IRS agents because there were so many people cheating on their taxes that it represented a huge loss of income for the government.

The crime itself may be at similar rates as we see from welfare fraud and tax fraud, but the scale is usually much bigger for wealthier people.

[Aseahawkfan]

Milley's comments were several weeks ago. Things have changed a lot. Trumps chief of staff Mark Meadows doubled down on it today in an interview. He may not leave.

There is no such thing as over the top rhetoric regarding Trump. Sickening, disgusting. The man is an evil madman.

As for his voters his base is who I say they are. There are issue voters, ideology voters that dont like the tactics but like the policies. They are my family and friends and i will always love them but i will always see them in a bit different light. In the america I remember faintly the guy wouldnt sniff the WH.

You are nuts. Evil madman, boy, even our bar for evil madmen has dropped substantially.

We'll see who is right. I say if Trump loses in November, he leaves the White House after perhaps a short fight over recounts if it is close and disappears from public life for a while other than showing up at talking events to inflate his ego.

And don't worry, Riverdog looks right. Barring a terrible performance in the debates or some other surprise, Biden looks on track to win easily. You can become a big Biden fan for beating Trump after November.

[I-5]

The point about Madoff isn’t that he still has his millions...it’s that he did go to jail.

I find Hawktalk’s description of who his base is 100% accurate in describing my family members and friends who support him. How do I know? Because that’s exactly what they say. They detest his tweets and his personal behaviour, but they love stacking the court with conservative judges who want to outlaw abortion (as if that will actually stop abortion).

[RiverDog]

I'm not sure if the wealthy and powerful get away with fraud at a higher rate than the little guys do or not. I'm sure that enhanced computerization has changed things nowadays, but back in the early 90's, I had an IRS agent tell me that they had just one agent to cover all of eastern Washington and that they didn't even bother with individual returns under $50k. I remember Michael Dukakis making it a campaign issue in '88, that he wanted to hire more IRS agents because there were so many people cheating on their taxes that it represented a huge loss of income for the government.

The crime itself may be at similar rates as we see from welfare fraud and tax fraud, but the scale is usually much bigger for wealthier people.

That's absolutely true, and you can strike the word 'usually'. The scale is always much bigger with the wealthier people.

My comments were regarding the premise that there are two standards of justice, the implication being that the little guy is held to a higher standard than the multi millionaires. As a matter of practicality, the IRS and law enforcement aren't going to waste their limited resources fishing for little minnows. They'll go after the big fish.

[RiverDog]

I find Hawktalk’s description of who his base is 100% accurate in describing my family members and friends who support him. How do I know? Because that’s exactly what they say. They detest his tweets and his personal behaviour, but they love stacking the court with conservative judges who want to outlaw abortion (as if that will actually stop abortion).

I've seen both. We have a neighbor that we've been friends with for years. She's 70 years old, white, no college. With the exception of her gender, she fits Trump's base perfectly. She thinks she's not a racist, but every time you give her an opportunity, she rants about illegals being responsible for every problem we face. According to her, Obama was a frigging Muslim. You can't rationalize with her as she'll answer every retort with something like "you just wait, it will all come out!" She's very religious but overlooks Trump's obvious transgressions. She's gotten progressively more political since Trump took office and can't hold a discussion for more than a couple of minutes before she turns the conversation to politics. As a result, I usually don't spend a lot of time with her, leaving the room and allowing my wife to entertain her.

Then there are people like one of my brothers in law. He voted for Trump but he did so because he hated Hillary, sees Democrats as being bad for business. But he's not racist or anti immigration, indeed, he married a Thai national and brought her and her daughter to the country. I can talk to him and have a good discussion, usually over a beer.

I live in a semi rural neighborhood, large lots, many with horse pastures, nearly all white and older. I see A LOT of Trump/Pence signs and flags. Although I don't know many of them personally, I have a hard time believing that they're all mindless, racist Trumpbots.

[RiverDog]

I only see Trump not going quietly if there is legitimate evidence that mail-in voting had issues that swung the election. I think it can be done right, but it is also unprecedented. No presidential election has been held with mail-in voting available on this scale. That it has been done for limited cases is encouraging, but it does leave the possibility for issues. If he wins with mass mail-in voting I could even see the Dems calling into question.

That's true. Although there is no evidence of voter fraud associated with mail in balloting on a large enough scale so as to affect the outcome, a lot of these states have had to throw together a system in a matter of months, so there could be some very large issues involving an incompetent or poorly handled system. Pennsylvania recently had a problem with a handful of ballots that were found in the garbage. Even though those incidents are rare and don't involve a scale anywhere near large enough to influence a result, given how much of an issue that Trump has made out of it, it won't take too many of these types of incidents to undermine the confidence in the system.

The other problem is that many voters aren't used to the protocol of mail in or absentee balloting, things like being sure to put the ballot in the security envelope and signing and dating it, and it's a bigger problem for the Dems than it is for the R's:

Those who use mail-in voting for the first time — especially young, Black and Latino voters — are more likely to have their ballots rejected because of errors, said Charles Stewart, a political scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who studies election administration.

https://www.npr.org/2020/07/13/88975109 ... -tardiness

The error rates can be as high as 5%, which could be huge in a close election in places like Pennsylvania.

The good news is that there are enough states that have had all mail in balloting for some time, like here in WA, to where they can provide a good template for others to follow, and that many voters have already voted by mail in the Presidential primary so it won't be foreign to them.

[c_hawkbob]

I live in a semi rural neighborhood, large lots, many with horse pastures, nearly all white and older. I see A LOT of Trump/Pence signs and flags. Although I don't know many of them personally, I have a hard time believing that they're all mindless, racist Trumpbots.

Me too, and I do know many of them and while of course they're not all mindless they all have much in common with each other, I'd break it down like this:

80% racist. Most at least have and were raised with a white supremecist mindset. They believe whites are superior and even refer to other races as "the" (The blacks, the Mexicans, the Japs etc). They've spent most of their lives felling more infringed upon as the world around them has become more liberal and now they finally have their guy in and are willing to let anything slide as long as it's OK for the to feel comfortable being a racist again.

80% anti abortion. (obviously these are overlapping circles, not a linear equation) As above, these are people willing to accept anything (treason, sexism, covid body count, whatever) to get a win on getting abortion made illegal again.

30% mindless Trumpbots. Seriously, just simple minded people that don't bother devoting any thought to anything, just going along with their circle of friends, family and parishioners.

20% 1 percenters and wanna be 1 percenters I guess I should acknowledge that ther are also just rich and corporate types that are concerned only with the stock market and their own bottom line even though I don't know any of those personally.

[NorthHawk]

MackStrongIsMyHero wrote:
I only see Trump not going quietly if there is legitimate evidence that mail-in voting had issues that swung the election. I think it can be done right, but it is also unprecedented. No presidential election has been held with mail-in voting available on this scale. That it has been done for limited cases is encouraging, but it does leave the possibility for issues. If he wins with mass mail-in voting I could even see the Dems calling into question.

I think that if Trump loses even in a landslide he will not go quietly. I think he will be whining and tweeting his but off because he's a supreme narcissist and can't fathom losing fairly, so
the vote must have been unfair. If he loses it will not be considered a Presidential finest hour.

[RiverDog]

MackStrongIsMyHero wrote:
I only see Trump not going quietly if there is legitimate evidence that mail-in voting had issues that swung the election. I think it can be done right, but it is also unprecedented. No presidential election has been held with mail-in voting available on this scale. That it has been done for limited cases is encouraging, but it does leave the possibility for issues. If he wins with mass mail-in voting I could even see the Dems calling into question.

I think that if Trump loses even in a landslide he will not go quietly. I think he will be whining and tweeting his but off because he's a supreme narcissist and can't fathom losing fairly, so the vote must have been unfair. If he loses it will not be considered a Presidential finest hour.

I don't think too many people are worried about whether or not Trump goes quietly. You know he's going to go kicking and screaming. What some are worried about is whether or not any of the chit he's throwing on the wall sticks.

The latest news is that he wants Biden to take a drug test before or right after the debate and has said that he'd take one as well.

[I-5]

The latest news is that he wants Biden to take a drug test before or right after the debate and has said that he'd take one as well.

I like it, but that's hilarious...besides maybe Geritol or another multivitamin, what drug would Biden take? I really hope they both do take a drug test.

[Aseahawkfan]

The point about Madoff isn’t that he still has his millions...it’s that he did go to jail.

I find Hawktalk’s description of who his base is 100% accurate in describing my family members and friends who support him. How do I know? Because that’s exactly what they say. They detest his tweets and his personal behaviour, but they love stacking the court with conservative judges who want to outlaw abortion (as if that will actually stop abortion).

I don't see Hawktawk thinkin that way at all. He thinks Trump voter are some group that loves him and supports him, when they really just hate the Democrats and what they stand for.

[Aseahawkfan]

I've seen both. We have a neighbor that we've been friends with for years. She's 70 years old, white, no college. With the exception of her gender, she fits Trump's base perfectly. She thinks she's not a racist, but every time you give her an opportunity, she rants about illegals being responsible for every problem we face. According to her, Obama was a frigging Muslim. You can't rationalize with her as she'll answer every retort with something like "you just wait, it will all come out!" She's very religious but overlooks Trump's obvious transgressions. She's gotten progressively more political since Trump took office and can't hold a discussion for more than a couple of minutes before she turns the conversation to politics. As a result, I usually don't spend a lot of time with her, leaving the room and allowing my wife to entertain her.

Then there are people like one of my brothers in law. He voted for Trump but he did so because he hated Hillary, sees Democrats as being bad for business. But he's not racist or anti immigration, indeed, he married a Thai national and brought her and her daughter to the country. I can talk to him and have a good discussion, usually over a beer.

I live in a semi rural neighborhood, large lots, many with horse pastures, nearly all white and older. I see A LOT of Trump/Pence signs and flags. Although I don't know many of them personally, I have a hard time believing that they're all mindless, racist Trumpbots.

I have a few of these in the family. I have the opposite too. The smug liberal who thinks every Trump voter is some idiot and believes every single thing from the left whether the wealth gap, the white privilege every white person is racist view, the anti-cop view, and all the rubbish pushed by leftist academia that is what I call "the dressed up in nice clothes" version of propaganda. Lots of pseudoscience, carefully worded statistics that support a false viewpoint, no sense of accountability, and always looking to stir up the usual suspects into a frenzy over the other side and barely know any people who they claim to be protecting as other than casual co-workers or some charity case they feel bad for.

That crap is just annoying. I have a lot of trouble keeping my temper with these various people. I hate the racists first as I definitely know they are bad for the world. I don't know that I like the leftist racists much better who want to see everything through the lense of race even if it is nonsensical.

I don't see a better future with these two parties remaining in power. The GOP seems to be stuck in the 80s with Reagan and that era and the Democrats seem to be stuck in the 60s with the counter-culture movement extended all the new weird stuff they get to push as normal in the modern day. We need a 3rd Party of people who want to run a modern nation in a modern fashion, not overly interested in these pathetic social and business agendas of these two terrible parties.

[RiverDog]

I have a few of these in the family. I have the opposite too. The smug liberal who thinks every Trump voter is some idiot and believes every single thing from the left whether the wealth gap, the white privilege every white person is racist view, the anti-cop view, and all the rubbish pushed by leftist academia that is what I call "the dressed up in nice clothes" version of propaganda. Lots of pseudoscience, carefully worded statistics that support a false viewpoint, no sense of accountability, and always looking to stir up the usual suspects into a frenzy over the other side and barely know any people who they claim to be protecting as other than casual co-workers or some charity case they feel bad for.

That crap is just annoying. I have a lot of trouble keeping my temper with these various people. I hate the racists first as I definitely know they are bad for the world. I don't know that I like the leftist racists much better who want to see everything through the lense of race even if it is nonsensical.

I don't see a better future with these two parties remaining in power. The GOP seems to be stuck in the 80s with Reagan and that era and the Democrats seem to be stuck in the 60s with the counter-culture movement extended all the new weird stuff they get to push as normal in the modern day. We need a 3rd Party of people who want to run a modern nation in a modern fashion, not overly interested in these pathetic social and business agendas of these two terrible parties.

One of my best friends, a former racquetball partner and current golfing buddy, very well educated with a PhD, is a bedwetting liberal, a term I use on him quite frequently. He reads nothing but the New York Times or the Washington Post, and listens to NPR Radio. If the TV doesn't have a sporting event on, it's always tuned to either CNN or MSNBC. He's the polar opposite to someone like Idahawkman, also a highly intelligent person, who gets nearly all of his news from right wing sources. Although I find his habits incredibly narrow minded, those types don't bother me nearly as much as the babbling idiots that couldn't tell you who the sitting vice president is.

I'm ripe for a 3rd party, too. I'm more of a Libertarian than I am anything else, which is one of the reasons why I voted for Gary Johnson in 2016. But the Constitution is not set up for a 3rd party.