GDP 2nd Quarter Worst in History

[Aseahawkfan]

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/07/30/896714437/3-months-of-hell-u-s-economys-worst-quarter-ever

https://www.barrons.com/articles/for-the-first-time-ever-uncle-sams-aid-to-u-s-tops-quarterly-gdp-51596244795

As discussed earlier the 2nd quarter of 2020 was the worst in history. And it was the first time government aid topped GDP. If these numbers don't clearly show this lock down is unsustainable, I don't know what will.

Money is being heavily concentrated into tech companies, delivery, and those companies that can still operate during COVID19. Every business the government is locking down is being slowly but surely destroyed. The economic damage is continuing to mount. Unemployment rate is terrible and likely to get worse before better. The unemployment rate is listed at 11.1 percent, but is likely much higher.

The hard reality of the situation is the lock down is unsustainable. It has reeked economic damage that isn't easy to recover from. If it continues, we will dig a hole where you will only be able to work for certain companies or certain businesses to have any chance of economic success.

The government basically picked and chose winners according to an arbitrary idea of what was a necessity and what wasn't. They picked winners and losers in the economy. This will likely have long-term affects on a variety of business models and investment choices in the future.

I have mostly been sitting on cash at this point as I don't believe we have yet seen the long-term effects on the stock market. The government juiced has caused the market to sustain with a massive amount of money concentrated into companies who are able to survive lock downs and thrive during a virus. While companies that can't are being sustained government stimulus and are laying off people in droves as they try to adjust to the COVID19 environment. The government can't sustain this level of stimulus, once it shuts off then we will see the real and dramatic economic damage we have to recover from. I believe it's going to be terrible, but an opportunity for the patient and intelligent investor who was disciplined enough to wait for the government spigot to turn off until so the real economic damage and re-alignment can occur.

[RiverDog]

I agree with most of what you've said. We cannot sustain a lockdown forever, both economically and psychologically. We have to learn how to live with it: Wear masks, wash your hands, avoid large crowds, don't carpool.

One of the things that needs to happen after this is all behind us is to write a playbook on how to respond to a pandemic. Shutting down initially makes a lot of sense. It gives people a strong slap in the face. But after a period of time, there has to be some common sense applied to the restrictions. You can't do crap like ban all non essential construction EXCEPT that which is government related or tell people that they can't go fishing or camping.