Kamala vs Pence

[Hawktawk]

Im drooling at the mouth for this debate after watching some footage of Harris questioning Trump officials, Brett Kavanaugh, Bob Barr. As the former Atty Gen of the largest state in the nation she is very adept in her speaking ability and ability to be subtle, humorous and coy while still making devastating points against her opponents. A crowded stage was not her forte but one on one Pence has a lot of material out there to attack.

Like his transition from homophobic lily white professed christian, pios and moral, so moral he cancelled his campaign appearances when the pussy grabber tape came out. Now he is running interference for the most amoral corrupt president in history, slathering him with sappy praise for his great job as a thousand plus people a day die.

Getcha popcorn, The debates are really Trumps last chance IMO.But I think this is the most important VP debate in history by quite a lot because reality either of the 2 could be president sometime in the next 4 years.

[Aseahawkfan]

I think Kamala will be dangerous in debates. She's not just a politician lawyer, she's argued in the trenches and she's not shy. I'd rather see her against Trump honestly. Hilary looked weak against Trump in my opinion many times. I think Kamala would hammer Trump.

[Hawktawk]

I think Kamala will be dangerous in debates. She's not just a politician lawyer, she's argued in the trenches and she's not shy. I'd rather see her against Trump honestly. Hilary looked weak against Trump in my opinion many times. I think Kamala would hammer Trump.

I agree although i think sleepy Joe might surprise. Kamala will hammer Trump on the way through Pence. Trump got away with bluster and being rude constantly 4 years ago. Its not going to be nearly the same this time around. he's got 4 years of BS to defend including embracing Quanon conspiracy from the podium in the white house yesterday.Lets see how Pence defends trump....

[RiverDog]

Agreed about Harris. She's as tough as nails and hails from the perfect occupation, ie a prosecuting attorney, from which to hone her debating skills. I do expect Pence to land some blows, particularly on their attempts to expose her liberalism, but she'll destroy him on moral and ethical subjects. The only danger is that she can easily out-shine Biden to the point where voters could question his competency when he's contrasted with her. You never want to make your boss look stupid.

But the election won't be decided by the second position on the ticket. Unless it's a controversial choice, like a Quayle or Palin, voters don't give a rip about the VP. I'll bet that 80%+ of voters can't tell you who Hillary's running mate was 4 years ago. Heck, I consider myself well informed and I even had to look it up. The only thing that any VP can do is keep from hurting the ticket. The key in this election will be Biden's ability to keep from sticking his foot in his mouth and from looking confused, which would reinforce the "Sleepy Joe" tag. Even though Trump lies his ass off and has such a poor command of the facts, he still looks confident when he argues. Biden has a tendency to stutter and is often times at a loss for words.

That's why I'm so concerned about a traditional one-on-one debate. Trump will throw out some bullcrap statement filled with lies and Biden won't be able to challenge him on it with a well articulated response. I don't see any way that Biden can win a debate. I'm just hoping that he keeps his losses to a minimum.

Looking at the race from Trump's side, you're exactly right that it's going to be much more difficult for Trump this time around. He can't just run on his outsider appeal, drain the swamp, make America great again theme this time around. He's going to have to defend his record, and with the #1 topic being the coronavirus, Trump's going to have to defend his actions/inactions. The public is well informed on this subject and he's not going to be able to get away with his revisionist statements or hide from some of his hideous comments about it being nothing but a hoax to embarrass him or wondering if injecting disinfectant into a human body could kill it. Even Sleepy Joe will be able to destroy him whenever that subject comes up.

[MackStrongIsMyHero]

Pence is definitely the better option to go up against Harris. Trump would no doubt get flustered and defensive pretty quick.

Sleepy Joe isn’t they only thing he has to worry about. Creepy Joe will also be on the table. He has backed off of that behavior, but Trump is most definitely going to bring it up.

[NorthHawk]

Trump, the Pu**y grabber calling out Biden?
I think that's an easy deflection.

[MackStrongIsMyHero]

I figured that was coming, but no one actually has photos of Trump doing that. Photos of Creepy Joe abound.

[c_hawkbob]

I figured that was coming, but no one actually has photos of Trump doing that. Photos of Creepy Joe abound.

And every one of them could be nothing more than whispering in someone's ear. And yes the are worse photos of Trump, pawing and ogling "his" teenage pageant contestants, girls at that Epstein party and even his own daughter, on more than one occasion.

Joe is undoubtedly a space invader and on the weird side, but no where near as creepy as Trump.

[MackStrongIsMyHero]

Not stumping for Trump on this; I am just equally turned off from Joe Biden because of both the sleepiness and the creepiness. And now is an even worse time for a 3rd party candidate.

[RiverDog]

Pence is definitely the better option to go up against Harris. Trump would no doubt get flustered and defensive pretty quick.

Sleepy Joe isn’t they only thing he has to worry about. Creepy Joe will also be on the table. He has backed off of that behavior, but Trump is most definitely going to bring it up.

Trump would be well advised to leave that sleeping dog lay, and he and his campaign know it. The only thing they'll touch will be Kamala Harris's hypocrisy in grilling Bret Kavanaugh while giving Biden a pass.

Trump has paid 6 figure hush money to two pornstars, an act that has led to the legal problems he's currently facing in SDNY, he's been videotaped rubbing elbows with a former buddy of his Jeffery Epstein, has just in the past couple months given comforting words to Epstein's pimp that is currently awaiting trial on sex trafficking charges, and no less than 16 women have formally charged Trump of various forms of sexual assault over the past 3 decades. If Trump were going to bring up Creepy Joe, he and his campaign would have done so long ago.

If Biden's opponent was anyone else this side of Harvey Weinstein, Creepy Joe would be a huge problem for him. But not when it's Donald Trump.

[RiverDog]

Not stumping for Trump on this; I am just equally turned off from Joe Biden because of both the sleepiness and the creepiness. And now is an even worse time for a 3rd party candidate.

"Equally" turned off? No way in hell is Biden's indiscretions anywhere near those of Donald Trump's. But I do agree with you that Biden is a lousy candidate. There's a reason why his Presidential aspirations didn't go anywhere for 30 years.

BTW, glad to see you dipping your toes in here again. You're a knowledgeable guy, a good debater, and I enjoy hearing your opinions. Don't let us scare you off over our disagreement with your take on this subject. As Hawktalk noted, this forum has become decidedly anti Trump.

[MackStrongIsMyHero]

The degrees that people are turned off of each candidate is obviously subjective, so I don’t expect everybody to see this as a toss up. The creepy Joe isn’t nearly the issue for me as the sleepy Joe is. For me Trump’s bluster and shooting off at the mouth seems like something he is fully aware that he is doing, though his inability to shut it off is problematic. I don’t know that is a cognitive decline issue or just a perpetual a-hole issue. Biden just seems lost to me like he’s not sure what is going on.

And I appreciate your comments River. I am always lurking but not commenting very often. I get to listen to older and wiser heads debate and reflect on y’all’s past and present experiences.

[RiverDog]

The degrees that people are turned off of each candidate is obviously subjective, so I don’t expect everybody to see this as a toss up. The creepy Joe isn’t nearly the issue for me as the sleepy Joe is.

OK, fair enough. But I'll bet you a tall cold one that the Creepy Joe issue isn't raised by the Trump campaign unless it's somehow related to Kamala Harris's scathing remarks she directed at Bret Kavanaugh during the confirmation hearings, which IMO is a very legitimate point.

For me Trump’s bluster and shooting off at the mouth seems like something he is fully aware that he is doing, though his inability to shut it off is problematic. I don’t know that is a cognitive decline issue or just a perpetual a-hole issue. Biden just seems lost to me like he’s not sure what is going on.

I'm not as concerned with cognitive decline in either candidate as others might be. I've witnessed my mother's slow decline into confusion and IMO neither Trump or Biden are at the point where you can't trust them with important decisions. Besides, Biden's been making silly gaffes throughout his entire career, so it's debatable as to whether or not what we are seeing today is age related.

As far as Trump goes, I'm more concerned with his poor work ethic and his overall intelligence than I am with any age related cognitive decline. Here we have a POTUS who told the PM of India that "it's not like you've got China on your border" when in fact the two countries share the 9th longest border in the world. As an American, that's an utter embarrassment that my President would say something like that and tells me two things: Trump is so stupid that he couldn't pass a 6th grade geography quiz and he's so lazy that he doesn't prepare for an important summit meeting with the leader of the 2nd most populous nation on the planet by simply looking at a map. If that were the only mistake he's made, it wouldn't be so concerning. But his head-up-a$$ comments have become a trademark of his presidency.

And I appreciate your comments River. I am always lurking but not commenting very often. I get to listen to older and wiser heads debate and reflect on y’all’s past and present experiences.

No sweat, my friend. I just wanted to encourage you to keep throwing in your two cents worth.

[Aseahawkfan]

Trump would be well advised to leave that sleeping dog lay, and he and his campaign know it. The only thing they'll touch will be Kamala Harris's hypocrisy in grilling Bret Kavanaugh while giving Biden a pass.

Trump has paid 6 figure hush money to two pornstars, an act that has led to the legal problems he's currently facing in SDNY, he's been videotaped rubbing elbows with a former buddy of his Jeffery Epstein, has just in the past couple months given comforting words to Epstein's pimp that is currently awaiting trial on sex trafficking charges, and no less than 16 women have formally charged Trump of various forms of sexual assault over the past 3 decades. If Trump were going to bring up Creepy Joe, he and his campaign would have done so long ago.

If Biden's opponent was anyone else this side of Harvey Weinstein, Creepy Joe would be a huge problem for him. But not when it's Donald Trump.

Or Bill Clinton, who spent more time with Epstein than Trump.

[Aseahawkfan]

OK, fair enough. But I'll bet you a tall cold one that the Creepy Joe issue isn't raised by the Trump campaign unless it's somehow related to Kamala Harris's scathing remarks she directed at Bret Kavanaugh during the confirmation hearings, which IMO is a very legitimate point.

Even if Trump's campaign doesn't use it, don't worry some group supporting Trump will. Just like group supporting Biden will push all the Trump material.

Trump supporters don't seem to care about his indiscretions or associations. We'll see if Biden supporters feel the same way.

The Creepy/Sleepy Joe videos are already dropping. My buddy sent me some video making Biden look like a stuttering idiot and the worst person to be in the White House. The dirt bombs are starting. Prepare to avoid incoming dirt bombs looking to spread dis and misinformation.

*air attack sirens going off* Incoming, incoming. Prepare for the mudslinging.

[RiverDog]

Even if Trump's campaign doesn't use it ("Creepy Joe"), don't worry some group supporting Trump will. Just like group supporting Biden will push all the Trump material.

Sure, somewhere someone will push it. But it won't have legs. They have a lot better chance making "Sleepy Joe" stick.

Trump supporters don't seem to care about his indiscretions or associations. We'll see if Biden supporters feel the same way.

Unless some new accusation surfaces, Biden's supporters, if they did care, seem to have put it aside. "Creepy Joe" has weathered the storm.

Biden's lead, currently at 7.6% in the nation wide RCP average, has held steady for the past several weeks between 6 and 8 percent, an indication that he didn't get much, if any, bump from his VP selection, which supports my contention that people don't give a rip about the #2 on the ticket. It will take another week to see if he gets a bump out of the convention, but my guess is that he doesn't get much from that, either. There just aren't that many people that are undecided, which is one of the big things that differentiates this election from 2016. Most people seem to have their minds made up, and it's going to take something pretty significant to change them.

The other thing that's different from the last election is that there isn't a viable 3rd party or independent. In 2016, the Libertarians had a well known former Governor on their ticket, Gary Johnson, that was polling between 8% and 10% at this time in 2016. Johnson eventually saw his support dwindle in half as the election approached, the implication being that his support went to either Trump or Clinton, a key factor in a close election. This year, the Libertarians are running a virtual unknown that hasn't won an election in her life and doesn't even register a blip on the radar.

Given that there's so few undecideds and no significant 3rd party or independent candidate, there's no place for Trump to go to mine voters. He's going to have to flip Biden voters, a much tougher proposition than convincing a non Biden voter to switch.

[Aseahawkfan]

Sure, somewhere someone will push it. But it won't have legs. They have a lot better chance making "Sleepy Joe" stick.

We'll see.

Unless some new accusation surfaces, Biden's supporters, if they did care, seem to have put it aside. "Creepy Joe" has weathered the storm.

Biden's lead, currently at 7.6% in the nation wide RCP average, has held steady for the past several weeks between 6 and 8 percent, an indication that he didn't get much, if any, bump from his VP selection, which supports my contention that people don't give a rip about the #2 on the ticket. It will take another week to see if he gets a bump out of the convention, but my guess is that he doesn't get much from that, either. There just aren't that many people that are undecided, which is one of the big things that differentiates this election from 2016. Most people seem to have their minds made up, and it's going to take something pretty significant to change them.

The other thing that's different from the last election is that there isn't a viable 3rd party or independent. In 2016, the Libertarians had a well known former Governor on their ticket, Gary Johnson, that was polling between 8% and 10% at this time in 2016. Johnson eventually saw his support dwindle in half as the election approached, the implication being that his support went to either Trump or Clinton, a key factor in a close election. This year, the Libertarians are running a virtual unknown that hasn't won an election in her life and doesn't even register a blip on the radar.

Given that there's so few undecideds and no significant 3rd party or independent candidate, there's no place for Trump to go to mine voters. He's going to have to flip Biden voters, a much tougher proposition than convincing a non Biden voter to switch.

A good VP pick wasn't for a bump, but the negative effect of a bad VP pick would have impacted him greatly. Kamala was a smart, safe pick. That is what the polls show and I'd bet you a lot of money the Democrats spent time with internal polling to see who was a safe pick unlikely to move the polls in a negative direction. With Biden the VP pick was extremely important as he is a weak candidate by himself. If he made a weak VP pick, he would get hammered and weaken his chances. You are way too confident. I know there has been near zero change in the people I talk to that supported Trump last election. They hate the left and they are going to vote hard.

And I do believe in the quiet Trump vote. It's become too much of a danger to speak openly of supporting Trump. The left hates him and attacks anyone that supports him publically. I have seen almost anyone that publically supports Trump vilified and attacked by the left. None of these people are changing their minds, they're just shutting up and waiting to cast their rage votes at the left. The left has literally forced Trump supporters and conservatives into hiding or to areas where they can be safe, but they haven't changed their minds at all.

This thing is just getting started as far as the campaigning and mudslinging. Biden just picked his VP. You act like the campaigning won't change anything. It most assuredly will. DNC just finished and your touting these polls like the next 3 months won't change anything. Ridiculous. Any polls now will not tell you who will win in November.

These two weak candidates are about to go to war. Biden picked himself a good person to go to battle with, so that helps. But this thing is pretty far from over. The sides hate each other. The Anti-Trump side is filled with rage and hate toward the pro-Trump side and is looking to punish and destroy anyone that supports him. The right hates the left thinking of them as repressive Nazis looking to take their guns, punish them for being white, pushing LGBT philosophy on them, and generally trying to ruin and destroy the nation with their moral turpitude and hate of America. And you think this is decided? Hah.

I don't share your confidence. I'm waiting for the body blows to start flying. Last election in 2016 you may have forgotten, but I have not. The election came down to the day of the election. And the news stations were still dropping bombs like additional Hilary investigations and grab them by the P sounds snippets up to the day people voted. It was swaying voters up to that moment. I expect the same this time around. I know Crazy Trump will be thumping in the states he needs to win up to the last day to get them votes. We'll see if Biden has the energy to match him. You say Trump is lazy, but Trump can put in huge amounts of work when he needs to, foregoing sleep, and selling like his life depends on it.

So we'll revisit this polling come Mid October. See where this is at. That will at least be more accurate. And we'll have seen the debates and see if any more craziness happens like secret tapes. I'm still waiting for the Dems to release the racial slur tape of Trump. That will be a real killer for him with swing voters. I know the Dems gotta be sitting on that waiting for just the right time. We'll see if the Republicans are sitting on any bombshells about Biden to release the last few weeks before the election.

I'm not even sure who the police unions usually go for, but I'm betting a lot of police and pro-police people will be casting their votes for Trump without giving Biden a second thought. The left hasn't given them much of a choice in that matter. No one is buying Biden doesn't support defunding the police when so many cities and Democrats obviously support it.

Then there is Kanye West. That will be interesting if he even pulls a small percentage of the Americans of African descent vote from Biden.

Crazy time is just getting started and you're making it seem like November is a few weeks away.

[RiverDog]

A good VP pick wasn't for a bump, but the negative effect of a bad VP pick would have impacted him greatly. Kamala was a smart, safe pick.

Precisely.

And I do believe in the quiet Trump vote. It's become too much of a danger to speak openly of supporting Trump. The left hates him and attacks anyone that supports him publically. I have seen almost anyone that publically supports Trump vilified and attacked by the left. None of these people are changing their minds, they're just shutting up and waiting to cast their rage votes at the left. The left has literally forced Trump supporters and conservatives into hiding or to areas where they can be safe, but they haven't changed their minds at all.

That's certainly possible and is a phenomena that pollsters worry about, particularly if the polling is done face to face. A lot of people will tell an interviewer what they think they want to hear. But most polling is done via the phone and anonymously, so it doesn't happen as often. There's also a factor known as response bias, where certain voters are more likely than others to answer a phone call and take the time to give their opinion. I fit into that category as I never take unsolicited phone calls. But good pollsters can identify that bias and put a percentage to it so they can account for it in their results.

This thing is just getting started as far as the campaigning and mudslinging. Biden just picked his VP. You act like the campaigning won't change anything. It most assuredly will. DNC just finished and your touting these polls like the next 3 months won't change anything. Ridiculous. Any polls now will not tell you who will win in November.

First off, the election is a few weeks less than 3 months away. More like 75 days. Additionally, with increased vote by mail this cycle, people will be making their decisions earlier than they have in the past, which further shrinks the window Trump has to narrow the gap. In 2016, Trump was still a virtual unknown, and as a challenger that had no political track record, he was free to make promises and proposals, saying anything he thought that would appeal to voters, like "we're going to build a wall and Mexico is going to pay for it!", or "drain the swamp!" He was able to use that rhetoric to narrow the gap between him and HRC. That's not going to fly this time around. He's going to be playing a lot of defense and not nearly as much offense.

Additionally, if you look at Trump's job approval ratings, they've remained remarkedly consistent, more so than any POTUS since they started doing the surveys, never dropping below 40% yet never going above 50%. That's another indication that good, bad, or indifferent and no matter what kind of news breaks, people's opinions are set in stone.

And lastly, the coronavirus pandemic is going to affect both campaigns. No more huge, chanting crowds, or at least not as many or as big as we're used to, and less of an opportunity to build the momentum needed to turn things around. Another reason why I think that this election will be less dynamic than in the past.

Anyhow, that's my rationale. I'm not asking you to join me in my opinion, just understand how I've come to my conclusion. It's more than just wishful thinking.

So we'll revisit this polling come Mid October. See where this is at. That will at least be more accurate. And we'll have seen the debates and see if any more craziness happens like secret tapes. I'm still waiting for the Dems to release the racial slur tape of Trump. That will be a real killer for him with swing voters. I know the Dems gotta be sitting on that waiting for just the right time. We'll see if the Republicans are sitting on any bombshells about Biden to release the last few weeks before the election.

I'm not even sure who the police unions usually go for, but I'm betting a lot of police and pro-police people will be casting their votes for Trump without giving Biden a second thought. The left hasn't given them much of a choice in that matter. No one is buying Biden doesn't support defunding the police when so many cities and Democrats obviously support it.

Then there is Kanye West. That will be interesting if he even pulls a small percentage of the Americans of African descent vote from Biden.

Crazy time is just getting started and you're making it seem like November is a few weeks away.

If something unknown happens, like the release of some previously unknown phone conversation as you have indicated happens, then all bets are off. That's been part of my argument: That unless something new happens to change the paradigm, we're looking at a Biden win.

FYI the NY police union has already come out in support of Trump and I would expect others to do the same. That's not a surprise. HRC didn't even seek their support in 2016, the first candidate in recent memory to do so. Besides, this year, the support of police unions could be a double edged sword.

[Hawktawk]

Neither Biden nor Harris supports defunding police which takes that hammer away from the trumpanzees for the most part. Biden raced to the center in his remarks like any smart politician as has Harris. Short of massive russian interference somehow changing votes or a collapse of the mail system, Biden passing away or something Biden Harris are winning in Nov.

Trump winning was a perfect storm, hes clearly been the worst president in history and hes never made a single attempt to broaden his base. As James Carville said a few months ago when Trump was daily becoming more of an incompetent fool and ass clown regarding the virus and racial unrest" The american people are not signing up for another 4 years of this". They won't and somewhere around 40% can go have their TDS as we sanitize the swamp Trump filled up full.Its really sad he has 1% support by now. It's a cult. Its the only way to explain it.

[RiverDog]

Neither Biden nor Harris supports defunding police which takes that hammer away from the trumpanzees for the most part.

For the most part, that's true, especially of Biden. But he's been wishy washy about it. When asked if he supports defunding the police, he answered and unequivocal "No". But when the question was re-phrased by asking if money should be re-directed away from cops, Sleepy Joe answered "Yes, absolutely."

https://nypost.com/2020/08/09/joe-biden ... he-police/

Harris has danced around the subject quite a bit. When asked by Megan McCain if she supported defunding the police, Harris did not give a yes or no answer, and instead, gave a much more confusing response by talking about "reimaging policing," ie re-allocating funds more towards drug abuse, homelessness, mental health, etc, in other words, to pander to every liberal's pet peeve project.

Trump owns the law and order issue, which is why the New York police union is backing him. It is not Biden's strong suit.

[Aseahawkfan]

Neither Biden nor Harris supports defunding police which takes that hammer away from the trumpanzees for the most part. Biden raced to the center in his remarks like any smart politician as has Harris. Short of massive russian interference somehow changing votes or a collapse of the mail system, Biden passing away or something Biden Harris are winning in Nov.

Trump winning was a perfect storm, hes clearly been the worst president in history and hes never made a single attempt to broaden his base. As James Carville said a few months ago when Trump was daily becoming more of an incompetent fool and ass clown regarding the virus and racial unrest" The american people are not signing up for another 4 years of this". They won't and somewhere around 40% can go have their TDS as we sanitize the swamp Trump filled up full.Its really sad he has 1% support by now. It's a cult. Its the only way to explain it.

Doesn't take that hammer away at all since Biden and Harris represent the Democrats, not just themselves. You don't get it do you? The defund the police movement may divide the Democrats and minority vote. If Biden and Harris come out too strong for defunding the police, then it may hurt them. If they don't support some radical defund the police agendas, they may drive off some Democrats.

And it's a non-issue to the Republicans.

Step off the Trump hate wagon for a minute and analyze this movement among the Dems from a purely political standpoint. They have a strong number of Democrats in highly liberal cities backing defund the police all over America. You have a strong movement among minority voters pushing some kind of radical police reform. The risk for defund the police has nothing to do with Trumpanzees who are firmly against it. But if you believe it's not a minefield of division among the Democrats the Trump team will push, you're not paying attention.

[RiverDog]

Doesn't take that hammer away at all since Biden and Harris represent the Democrats, not just themselves. You don't get it do you? The defund the police movement may divide the Democrats and minority vote. If Biden and Harris come out too strong for defunding the police, then it may hurt them. If they don't support some radical defund the police agendas, they may drive off some Democrats.

..analyze this movement among the Dems from a purely political standpoint. They have a strong number of Democrats in highly liberal cities backing defund the police all over America. You have a strong movement among minority voters pushing some kind of radical police reform. The risk for defund the police has nothing to do with Trumpanzees who are firmly against it. But if you believe it's not a minefield of division among the Democrats the Trump team will push, you're not paying attention.

That's essentially how I see the issue. Law and order is an almost exclusively Republican domain ever since Richard Nixon made it the centerpiece of his campaign in 1968. The only Dem in recent memory to garner any support from police unions was Bill Clinton, and that was mainly on his 100,000 more cops proposal, not on overall policy. Biden can't take the hammer away from Trump on this issue. The only thing he can do is change it from a sledge hammer to a rubber mallet by ducking the subject. Biden has to walk a tightrope as he needs to get blacks and other libs to the polls but he doesn't want to hurt his standing with moderates, either. Trump is firmly on one side of the issue as are most conservatives (not just "Trumpanzees") and has no balancing act to perform.

And you're damn right that the Trump team will push law and order during the campaign. It's the one issue out of the top 4 or 5...the others being the economy, health care, and the coronavirus...where they have a decided advantage.

[NorthHawk]

What the Democrats have to do to ensure the left wing voters do vote is to remind them that
if they don't vote and Trump gets back in their cause will suffer multiple steps back but if they
vote and Biden gets in they might get a small step forward. Some of their higher profile left wing
members should take the lead on that - and stress it to that side of the party. It's up to Sanders,
AOC, Warren and others to do that job.

[Aseahawkfan]

If I were the Democrats, I would focus the entire campaign on Trump's terrible Federal COVID19 response, his idiotic tweets, and when speaking in front of minority voters his push to protect Confederate Statues and obvious desire to protect racist history. If I were speaking to big businesses leaders, I would focus on selling a less steep tax hike, a return to normalcy in the White House, and focus on companies that do heavy business in China ensuring business knows that the hostility towards China would not be continued.

As much as I lash out at China, here's the reality: they are 1.4 billion consumers. Them growing into a prosperous nation is good for the entire world and especially good for us. If their economy becomes an economic power, they will be a market for American goods that will drive increases in manufacturing jobs in America because we will become a lower cost option. They are the main market for growth as India has yet to show they have the culture and focus to build into an economic powerhouse like China leveraging their manpower and consumer base into a desirable market to invest in.

I would also court the Latino vote as they are a strong, growing, financially potent, and varied voting block with a lot of conservatives waiting to support the Republican Party if they can show themselves to be more friendly to those of Latin ancestry.

That would get a lot of support across a wide spectrum.

[RiverDog]

If I were the Democrats, I would focus the entire campaign on Trump's terrible Federal COVID19 response, his idiotic tweets, and when speaking in front of minority voters his push to protect Confederate Statues and obvious desire to protect racist history. If I were speaking to big businesses leaders, I would focus on selling a less steep tax hike, a return to normalcy in the White House, and focus on companies that do heavy business in China ensuring business knows that the hostility towards China would not be continued.

Agreed about the COVID response. That's the topic that Biden can make the most headway on as it's Trump's biggest weakness. As far as the 'cancel culture' subject goes, he'd be best to avoid it as much as he can or at least play it down the middle. He already has the support he needs to win, he just has to keep those that currently support him in the fold and not give them a reason to stay at home. Agreed about China policy as Trump didn't achieve anything. The entire economy is now in the dumps due to the COVID crisis. I'd argue that the unnecessary infections and deaths have retarded our economic rebound by undermining consumer confidence and continuing lock downs, travel restrictions, etc.

As much as I lash out at China, here's the reality: they are 1.4 billion consumers. Them growing into a prosperous nation is good for the entire world and especially good for us. If their economy becomes an economic power, they will be a market for American goods that will drive increases in manufacturing jobs in America because we will become a lower cost option. They are the main market for growth as India has yet to show they have the culture and focus to build into an economic powerhouse like China leveraging their manpower and consumer base into a desirable market to invest in.

Agreed. Enabling the Chinese people to acquire more wealth by working to manufacture cheap products for Walmart and Target will give them more buying power and create a market for our own goods and services. The days of us making and selling everything to each other have long disappeared. There are going to be some things that make more sense for one country to produce than another. And making the Chinese dependent on us economically reduces the chance of a military confrontation from happening.

I would also court the Latino vote as they are a strong, growing, financially potent, and varied voting block with a lot of conservatives waiting to support the Republican Party if they can show themselves to be more friendly to those of Latin ancestry.

That would get a lot of support across a wide spectrum.

I don't think that Biden needs to do a lot of work on that group. Most, if not all Latinos I know or have spoken with can't stand Trump. And it's not just the Latinos. All of the minority immigrant communities are scared or confused with Trump's rhetoric.

Donald Trump has a very narrow core of supporters, the largest of which are white males over 50 w/o a college degree, but they will turn out and vote for him no matter what. Biden needs to get his supporters to the polls, especially in the swing states. It's that simple.

[RiverDog]

As expected, Biden didn't get a very big bump in the polls due to the Democratic national convention. He basically has the same margin, about 7-10% nationally, coming out of the convention as he had going in. Most people already knew enough about him to form an opinion on his politics. But where he did make some headway in is his favorability ratings, which can be attributed to the impassioned acceptance speech he gave, which most agree was his best of his career and one of the best acceptance speeches in recent history.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-e ... d=72544897

The significance of this favorability bounce is that it could make his supporters less likely to sit it out. Hillary's huge unfavorability ratings was one of the biggest, if not the deciding factor in the 2016 election, and she did next to nothing during the campaign to nullify that disadvantage as all she did was rail about Trump's personality flaws.

But we'll see this week how bullet proof this new found favorability rating is. Trump and the Republicans move to center stage this week, and you can count on them to try to drudge up any kind of muck and shake out of the closet as many skeletons they can. Trump and the Republicans will put into practice the philosophy of "throw enough chit on the wall and some of it is bound to stick." As Trump well knows, the 'chit' doesn't have to be true to be effective. Personally, I don't think it's going to change much as people have already heard about Biden's negatives...Hunter, Creepy, Sleepy, et al, unless the R's can be creative and come up with something new.

At this point, I'm still expecting Biden to win the popular vote by 5-8% and the electoral college by 120-150 votes. That would mean Biden winning in MI, WI, PA, FL, AZ, and OH, all states Trump won in 2016. Assuming every other state remains the same color as 2016, those 6 would give Biden a 338-200 electoral college advantage. There's also a couple of other states, namely TX and GA, that could break Biden's way, which would turn the election into a landslide that even Obama or Slick Willy could match.

We'll see how good my forecasting is in a little over 2 months.

[NorthHawk]

You're right. Turning out the vote this time is paramount for the Dems if they want to win.
That means Bernie supporters who sat out last time and those who couldn't find it in themselves
to vote for Hillary along with now disaffected Republicans.
Trump knows it, too and that's why he's (and the GOP) trying to make it as difficult as possible to
cast a ballot in critical areas.

[I-5]

I agree with asf that his absolute disastrous response to Covid-19 is going to be the culmination of everything that is wrong about Trump, and he'll be playing defense the entire time, so that's where Joe should keep attacking him. We've heard every spin he has for how he has handled it great, including two separate interviews that he fell apart in, and it doesn't sound or look good.

He's going to paint Biden as a president who will create the darkest moments of the country...unfortunately for Trump, I would venture to say for americans on both left and even some right, the darkest times are right now. So his promise to be the guy to pull us out of the darkness just rings empty.

[RiverDog]

I agree with asf that his absolute disastrous response to Covid-19 is going to be the culmination of everything that is wrong about Trump, and he'll be playing defense the entire time, so that's where Joe should keep attacking him. We've heard every spin he has for how he has handled it great, including two separate interviews that he fell apart in, and it doesn't sound or look good.

He's going to paint Biden as a president who will create the darkest moments of the country...unfortunately for Trump, I would venture to say for americans on both left and even some right, the darkest times are right now. So his promise to be the guy to pull us out of the darkness just rings empty.

Trump won't be playing defense the entire time. He's already made law and order his main campaign theme, and IMO will score some points with moderate swing voters. He can attack both Biden and Harris on their inconsistent answers to the defund the police movement.

Biden needs to keep the focus on the coronavirus response and keep his mouth shut about what he'd do to quell the violence. For the most part, it's not his decision anyway, so all he has to do is say that he'll support whatever actions the cities and states request of him to do.

[Aseahawkfan]

I don't think that Biden needs to do a lot of work on that group. Most, if not all Latinos I know or have spoken with can't stand Trump. And it's not just the Latinos. All of the minority immigrant communities are scared or confused with Trump's rhetoric.

Donald Trump has a very narrow core of supporters, the largest of which are white males over 50 w/o a college degree, but they will turn out and vote for him no matter what. Biden needs to get his supporters to the polls, especially in the swing states. It's that simple.

We'll see how the Latino vote goes for Biden. He should be able to do better than Hilary. I think Biden being a Catholic might help him with the Latino vote. Latinos aren't as slanted towards the Democrats as folks of African descent. They definitely have more independents that can be swayed one way or the other. I wonder if Trump will keep his immigration rhetoric quiet this time around and actually court the Latin vote? Wouldn't that be funny.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/29/hillary-clinton-wins-latino-vote-but-falls-below-2012-support-for-obama/

Florida: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/15/unlike-other-latinos-about-half-of-cuban-voters-in-florida-backed-trump/

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/2016/11/09/hispanic-vote-election-2016-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/93540772/

[RiverDog]

We'll see how the Latino vote goes for Biden. He should be able to do better than Hilary. I think Biden being a Catholic might help him with the Latino vote. Latinos aren't as slanted towards the Democrats as folks of African descent. They definitely have more independents that can be swayed one way or the other. I wonder if Trump will keep his immigration rhetoric quiet this time around and actually court the Latin vote? Wouldn't that be funny.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/29/hillary-clinton-wins-latino-vote-but-falls-below-2012-support-for-obama/

Florida: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/15/unlike-other-latinos-about-half-of-cuban-voters-in-florida-backed-trump/

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/2016/11/09/hispanic-vote-election-2016-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/93540772/

I agree that Latinos aren't as committed to Democrats as blacks are. Bush 43 got quite a bit of support from Latinos when they found out that he speaks fluent Spanish and that one of his brothers married a Hispanic. And I can see why Cubans aren't as put off by Trump as Mexicans or those from Central America. They didn't take offense to his border wall and being called thugs, drug runners, and rapists like he labeled the Mexican immigrants. I have friends from Peru that do not take nearly as much offense to Trump as do those from Mexico.

But Hispanics have been hit disproportionally hard by the coronavirus, especially in this neck of the woods. Agriculture is considered an 'essential' job, many of the jobs they hold, such as in meat packing plants, were shoulder-to-shoulder, they live in denser neighborhoods with typically large families, etc. Many have a friend or loved one they lost to the virus. My guess is that they'll see Trump as the villain in the pandemic response and they'll break towards Biden. Remember, Trump was telling companies like Tyson to stay open when the pandemic first broke out.

[Aseahawkfan]

I agree that Latinos aren't as committed to Democrats as blacks are. Bush 43 got quite a bit of support from Latinos when they found out that he speaks fluent Spanish and that one of his brothers married a Hispanic. And I can see why Cubans aren't as put off by Trump as Mexicans or those from Central America. They didn't take offense to his border wall and being called thugs, drug runners, and rapists like he labeled the Mexican immigrants. I have friends from Peru that do not take nearly as much offense to Trump as do those from Mexico.

But Hispanics have been hit disproportionally hard by the coronavirus, especially in this neck of the woods. Agriculture is considered an 'essential' job, many of the jobs they hold, such as in meat packing plants, were shoulder-to-shoulder, they live in denser neighborhoods with typically large families, etc. Many have a friend or loved one they lost to the virus. My guess is that they'll see Trump as the villain in the pandemic response and they'll break towards Biden. Remember, Trump was telling companies like Tyson to stay open when the pandemic first broke out.

This doesn't surprise me. Other Latin groups are kind of hard on each other. I know a lot of groups don't love Mexicans. They like people to know they are distinctly different from Mexicans. If you confuse a Argentinians or Colombians with Mexicans, they will give you the stinkeye. Cubans are are a whole other group. They are very conservative. Many are very light-skinned and feel more European than other groups.

Should be interesting to watch how the various Latin groups vote.

[I-5]

Most latinos I know, and especially the older generation, tend to be conservatives. Trump again effed up by picking on latinos over the years. There are still a lot of latino conservatives who will vote for him I’m sure, but he needlessly pissed off a sizeable chunk of the latino voters, even if many of them are not mexican or puerto rican (two of the more visible groups he has said things about).

[NorthHawk]

It makes me wonder if some or many Latinos will follow the lead of some of the leading traditional Republicans and
vote for Biden just to get rid of Trump. It may be a factor if they don't.

[RiverDog]

Most latinos I know, and especially the older generation, tend to be conservatives. Trump again effed up by picking on latinos over the years. There are still a lot of latino conservatives who will vote for him I’m sure, but he needlessly pissed off a sizeable chunk of the latino voters, even if many of them are not mexican or puerto rican (two of the more visible groups he has said things about).

You have to think that Trump's full scale assault on immigrants coming in and having come from the southern border has some in the Republican establishment upset. There was a move that culminated in George W. Bush receiving 40% Latino support of the Republicans courting the Latin vote as they are the largest growing minority group and have displaced blacks in their numbers. It would appear that Trump has reversed that trend, but we'll see. They're a little more difficult to poll due to some language barriers and that they don't have cell phones to the same degree that other groups have.

[Aseahawkfan]

Most latinos I know, and especially the older generation, tend to be conservatives. Trump again effed up by picking on latinos over the years. There are still a lot of latino conservatives who will vote for him I’m sure, but he needlessly pissed off a sizeable chunk of the latino voters, even if many of them are not mexican or puerto rican (two of the more visible groups he has said things about).

Yep, dumb. Then again Bush Jr. was one of the few smart Republicans to court the growing Latin vote realizing they are extremely conservative as a group. If Republicans could get the racist moniker off their neck, they would find the vast majority of minority and immigrant groups are conservative. Whenever I chat with immigrants from other nations other than Europe and some Asian nations, they make American religious conservatives look like liberals.

[RiverDog]

Most latinos I know, and especially the older generation, tend to be conservatives. Trump again effed up by picking on latinos over the years. There are still a lot of latino conservatives who will vote for him I’m sure, but he needlessly pissed off a sizeable chunk of the latino voters, even if many of them are not mexican or puerto rican (two of the more visible groups he has said things about).

Yep, dumb. Then again Bush Jr. was one of the few smart Republicans to court the growing Latin vote realizing they are extremely conservative as a group. If Republicans could get the racist moniker off their neck, they would find the vast majority of minority and immigrant groups are conservative. Whenever I chat with immigrants from other nations other than Europe and some Asian nations, they make American religious conservatives look like liberals.

Not to be picky, but it's not Bush Jr. George Walker Bush is the son of George Herbert Walker Bush. If he were "Junior", he'd have exactly the same full name as his father.

The main reason Bush 43 was able to connect with Latios wasn't so much because of his politics as it was his persona. He speaks fluent Spanish and his brother married a Hispanic. Latinos are big into family, and Bush literally spoke their language.

But I do agree that most immigrants can be more easily bought, politically, than other demographical groups such as women and blacks. They are a blank slate and are relatively naïve of of the history and traditions of American politics. That is, if Trump hasn't already poisoned the well with his ignorance and outright bigotry.

[I-5]

But I do agree that most immigrants can be more easily bought, politically, than other demographical groups such as women and blacks. They are a blank slate and are relatively naïve of of the history and traditions of American politics.

Talk about gross generalizations. That's assuming immigrants don't pay attention to what's happening in the world outside of the countries grew up in. I get your point, but no one is truly a blank slate unless they willfully ignore the news of the world.

[Aseahawkfan]

Talk about gross generalizations. That's assuming immigrants don't pay attention to what's happening in the world outside of the countries grew up in. I get your point, but no one is truly a blank slate unless they willfully ignore the news of the world.

And immigrants bring their values here from their culture. Many have definite political opinions like we do here about their nations. I've learned a ton talking politics with immigrant folk. You learn the divisions within their nations. Their concerns. Their stance on certain issues. What they were raised with in terms of a political and economic environment. And so much more about how they view the world and what influences their values.

I believe immigrants will push us socialist at some point. America is the main hold out on socialized medicine. Almost every other nation has some form of socialized medicine other than America, even places like Afghanistan and Iraq. Middle Eastern immigrants definitely prefer socialized medicine. As does almost every immigrant from every other nation. They really worry about not being able to medically cover their children. It's a big issue. If the Democrats offer socialized medicine with care for children, the vast majority of immigrants will vote Democrat on that issue alone. Immigrant cultures are far more family oriented than the majority of American culture. They like bigger families. They are close to even their uncles, aunts, and cousins. They would not like their families not taken care of by the medical system. That would turn them against any political party not in support of medicine for all, so they can care for their families. Family is first in most other places, before economics or politics. People may say that here, but it's not true. It is true in many other nations and they will put their families over economics or politics if they are not being cared for.

[RiverDog]

But I do agree that most immigrants can be more easily bought, politically, than other demographical groups such as women and blacks. They are a blank slate and are relatively naïve of of the history and traditions of American politics.

Talk about gross generalizations. That's assuming immigrants don't pay attention to what's happening in the world outside of the countries grew up in. I get your point, but no one is truly a blank slate unless they willfully ignore the news of the world.

Of course, it's a generalization. Saying that most men over 50 are Trump supporters is a generalization, too, but it doesn't make the statement false. And I don't think it says that immigrants don't pay attention at all. What it says is that they are not influence by past events or be aware of voting practices as others might be. Ignorance of past events or stereotypes doesn't mean that they're ignorant of current events.

I've spent my entire supervisory career working with immigrants. In general, they are more trusting of authority than their native born counterparts. I don't have to spend a lot of time rationalizing why it is that I want something done. I tell them to do it and that's good enough for them. Their naivety can be taken advantage of, too. One supervisor told a group of Hispanics that they couldn't talk to each other in any language other than English, so they obeyed him...that is, until I found out what he had told them.

That same 'blank slate' or naivety can taken advantage of politically as well.