Has Biden Changed?

[RiverDog]

You can put whatever spin on the election you like, but it doesn't change the fact that there's a lot of indicators out there that are pointing to a substantial Biden win, the 2018 election being just one of them.

We won't have to wait much longer, although if it's close, it might take awhile to tabulate all the votes. Some of the states are unprepared to count all of these mail in and drop off ballots in a timely manner, which will only fuel Trump's speculation that the election is rigged.

[Hawktawk]

the 2018 senate was held on to by Repubs in part due to the Kavanaugh row, also the sheer numbers of seats dems had to defend.Nobody said they were favored, just that they had a shot. Beto in Texas losing by 2% when he was down 10 points for instance. Claire McCaskill in Missouri lost by a whisker strictly due to Kavanagh, polling showed.Across the nation it was a blue wave, the greatest midterm shellacking since watergate in the house by Dems, also statehouses and legislatures.Almost 9 million more people voted blue than red overall.

This is not a popular president. I'm in the camp that doesn't know minus coronavirus who would have won in a couple days. Its utterly terrifying that the covid 45 super spreader STILL has a sliver of a pathway to utterly finish off destroying America in spite of it. Only due to the apartheid election system known as the electoral college. Joe is gonna win a historic number of Blue votes across this country in certain states and could win the popular vote by 10 million. So maybe something's off and he squeaks out florida and Pennsylvania somehow with the voter suppression, mail delays, supreme court blocks ballots etc.and wins with maybe 9 or 10 million less votes? There will be pandemonium.

How he's at 1% support is sickening, saddening. this country is truly in a sick place between the ears when 40 something % will re hire this guy.

[RiverDog]

Another indicator is some of these states that Trump won by large margins in 2016 but are competitive in this election. Texas is a state that Trump won by 9 points, that the Dems haven't carried since before the days of VCR's, and that analysts routinely put in the solid red category, yet polls there are showing the race as a dead heat. Voter turnout there has already hit 94% of the total tally from the 2016 election. Neither Biden or Trump have paid much attention to it, but it's become so close that as we speak, the Dems are dispatching Kamala Harris to the Lone Star State, which is remarkable considering we're just 4 days away from the election.

Trump won in 2016 with a 36 electoral vote margin, and with virtually no chance of flipping a state won by HRC, the object for him will be to hold the line on those states he won the last time. Losing Texas would completely wipe out that 36 vote margin he needs to preserve, and the fact that the Dems think it's close enough to where they're sending their VP candidate in there with just 4 days left speaks volumes.

Iowa and Ohio are two states that have made a remarkable shift over the past 4 years. Trump won both by 10% in 2016, but today they're rated as toss ups. Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina are all teetering, with polls in all 3 states within 1%. Trump has been frantically trying to save Florida, another race that's a dead heat here in the final week and one with a big electoral prize that he has to win.

Biden has been leading outside the margin of error in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, the three states he won by the narrowest of margins, for months. Trump can afford to lose one of those, but not two...and that's if you assume he wins all 6 of the states rated as toss ups.

Voter turnout is another indicator, and all signs point to a historic number of people casting ballots. As a rule, a high voter turnout favors the Democratic candidate.

If you were paying attention in 2016, you could see a shift in Trump's direction over the last two months of the election. With just 4 days to go, I'm not seeing any kind of a shift. I don't see this election as being close.

[I-5]

Trump just cancelled an appearance at his own election party. My good friend started predicting a few weeks ago that after he loses, Trump will leave the country and head to Saudi Arabia, in part because of rich friends there, and in part because of their anti extradition laws. This is the week before Trump joked to one of his crowds that if he loses to Joe, he may have to leave the country.

[RiverDog]

Trump just cancelled an appearance at his own election party. My good friend started predicting a few weeks ago that after he loses, Trump will leave the country and head to Saudi Arabia, in part because of rich friends there, and in part because of their anti extradition laws. This is the week before Trump joked to one of his crowds that if he loses to Joe, he may have to leave the country.

Boy, that would be something, wouldn't it! Donald Trump living in exile and surrounded by Muslims.

[Aseahawkfan]

You can put whatever spin on the election you like, but it doesn't change the fact that there's a lot of indicators out there that are pointing to a substantial Biden win, the 2018 election being just one of them.

We won't have to wait much longer, although if it's close, it might take awhile to tabulate all the votes. Some of the states are unprepared to count all of these mail in and drop off ballots in a timely manner, which will only fuel Trump's speculation that the election is rigged.

I read that article you posted multiple times. It was nothing but spin. I don't know why you can't see it given it clearly provides information contradicting it's own assertion such as being the 4th most seats one, beating the Republican win 8.6 to 8.5. It was nothing but spin. The 2018 election was nothing special. The Democrats gain 40 net seats compared to the Republicans gaining 60 seats back in 2010. So you tell me what was more historical results? And Obama was a popular president as far as I remember.

You want to surprise me? Let me see Biden flip Texas. That would surprise me. And even then, it will still be primarily due to the Idiot in Chief's handling of COVID19 which has been so egregiously stupid that a writer likely couldn't have come up with the level of stupid by Trump.

As far as either one of us proving Trump would lose without COVID19, nowhere for us to prove that one way or the other. It doesn't matter. All that matters right now is November 3rd, barring any surprises the Trump Era ends. And good riddance to an Idiot whose ego was so huge he thought he could blow off a global pandemic and still win. If this moron pulls off a 1 in 20 chance of winning the polls currently show, then I don't even know what to think about polls any more.

I want a nice, smooth Biden victory as forecast. I don't expect Trump to fight it unless it is so close he has any chance of doing so. He can go back to banging pornstars or whatever he ends up doing and the Democrats can try to fix this COVID19 situation and the associated damage. And if they can't manage it, then I imagine the Republicans will get their chance again in 2022 or 2024. Back and forth they will go depending on how well they manage COVID19 and the usual factors influencing voters like the economy and general stability.

These things aren't that complicated. Humans as a group of herd animals aren't that hard to figure out. Keep them fed, entertained, and not feeling threatened, they'll let the intelligent herd leaders do mostly what they want.

[RiverDog]

You want to surprise me? Let me see Biden flip Texas. That would surprise me.

And that could very well happen. Kamala Harris is in the Lone Star state as we speak. The Democrats wouldn't be sending her in there if they didn't have a reasonable expectation to win it. There are other places she could be utilizing her 11th hour, like PA or FL.

As far as either one of us proving Trump would lose without COVID19, nowhere for us to prove that one way or the other. It doesn't matter.

You're the one that brought it up. I ought to shoot myself for following you down that rabbit hole.

I want a nice, smooth Biden victory as forecast. I don't expect Trump to fight it unless it is so close he has any chance of doing so. He can go back to banging pornstars or whatever he ends up doing and the Democrats can try to fix this COVID19 situation and the associated damage. And if they can't manage it, then I imagine the Republicans will get their chance again in 2022 or 2024. Back and forth they will go depending on how well they manage COVID19 and the usual factors influencing voters like the economy and general stability.

I want Trump gone, out of the headlines and into the history books. I'm a little different than my friend Hawktalk as I'm not out for blood and don't want to see him being prosecuted for any non violent crimes. Whether it be from Biden or one of the governors, I want to see him receive a pardon.

I'm looking forward to getting somewhat back to normal. 2020 has been the worst year I've gone through as an adult.

[Aseahawkfan]

I want Trump gone, out of the headlines and into the history books. I'm a little different than my friend Hawktalk as I'm not out for blood and don't want to see him being prosecuted for any non violent crimes. Whether it be from Biden or one of the governors, I want to see him receive a pardon.

I'm looking forward to getting somewhat back to normal. 2020 has been the worst year I've gone through as an adult.

It has been my worst year in recent memory. I've gained 30 lbs. I haven't been able to hit the gym at night like I usually do in months. I don't like going outside because of the BS. I don't like government leaders who make noise, especially someone as high up as the president. I hate Armageddon politics. I don't like petty and impolite people. I hate identity politics and mob justice. I've tried to buy weight equipment for my home, but finding 45 lb. plates has been super expensive. Lost a few people I cared about.

About the main good things is my investments have done well this year, though I missed out on the low point of the crash.

And I hate wearing masks everywhere. Its not comfortable and I don't like breathing through them.

Yeah. Terrible year. Hopefully it doesn't get worse.

[RiverDog]

I want Trump gone, out of the headlines and into the history books. I'm a little different than my friend Hawktalk as I'm not out for blood and don't want to see him being prosecuted for any non violent crimes. Whether it be from Biden or one of the governors, I want to see him receive a pardon.

I'm looking forward to getting somewhat back to normal. 2020 has been the worst year I've gone through as an adult.

It has been my worst year in recent memory. I've gained 30 lbs. I haven't been able to hit the gym at night like I usually do in months. I don't like going outside because of the BS. I don't like government leaders who make noise, especially someone as high up as the president. I hate Armageddon politics. I don't like petty and impolite people. I hate identity politics and mob justice. I've tried to buy weight equipment for my home, but finding 45 lb. plates has been super expensive. Lost a few people I cared about.

About the main good things is my investments have done well this year, though I missed out on the low point of the crash.

And I hate wearing masks everywhere. Its not comfortable and I don't like breathing through them.

Yeah. Terrible year. Hopefully it doesn't get worse.

Once again, I'm the oddball as I've lost 30 pounds since last March. I joke about it by telling others that there's nothing else to do, so I might as well lose some weight, but part of that is true. The highlight of my day was stepping on the scale in the evening after I've showered.

My IRA's also rebounded strongly. They're actually up about 5% since the start of the year. When the pandemic struck, I was afraid it would take several years for them to recoup their losses.

As far as mask wearing goes, I don't like them, either. I don't think anyone enjoys wearing them. But it's something you get used to. I used to have to wear particle masks all day when I worked in grain elevators as a kid, and doctors and nurses wear them all the time. My biggest problem is forgetting them when I get out of my truck and bound for a store.

I'm very thankful that I'm retired during all of this as had I been working, I would have had to been a policeman making everyone wear masks and breaking up groups in the lunch room. My wife worked as a nurse in nursing homes for 40 years so she would have really gotten slammed during this pandemic.