2020 General Election

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Re: 2020 General Election

Postby RiverDog » Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:30 am

Most of the talking heads are saying that Biden is a slight favorite. He's extended his lead in WI to .7% and 20,000 votes with nearly everything counted and Trump's lead in MI is down to .2% and 12,000 votes with 83% of the ballots counted with most of what's left to come in expected to break towards Biden.

Once the election is over, we'll be treated to two weeks of court battles that could end up in SCOTUS even though no major problems have yet to be reported in any of the states.

In the Senate, it looks like the Republicans might retain control. If Biden wins the Presidency and the R's retain control of the Senate, I'll be as happy as a clam.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Postby c_hawkbob » Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:45 am

I had hoped for a landslide but in reality, other than Trump getting FLA. it's pretty much gone as I had expected.

- I never figure we'd know on election night.
- They've been telling us for weeks to expect Trump to look best Nov 3rd and that the mail in ballots would take longer to count and would favor Biden.
- I totally expected Trump to declare himself winner on election night, which he has.

I'm perfectly fine letting the process play itself out.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Postby RiverDog » Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:12 am

c_hawkbob wrote:I had hoped for a landslide but in reality, other than Trump getting FLA. it's pretty much gone as I had expected.

- I never figure we'd know on election night.
- They've been telling us for weeks to expect Trump to look best Nov 3rd and that the mail in ballots would take longer to count and would favor Biden.
- I totally expected Trump to declare himself winner on election night, which he has.

I'm perfectly fine letting the process play itself out.


I think we'll get a winner declared early today, pending recounts and provisional ballots. I've been watching the numbers come in since about 1:30am and the tide is definitely swinging towards Biden. Wisconsin is virtually all done and Biden still has a slim lead. Trump's had a 1.3%/64,000 vote lead in Michigan when I started watching it 3.5 hours ago and it's down to .2%/12,000 votes. Election officials in MI say that the bulk of the votes will be counted in a couple of hours. The AP called Arizona for Biden a couple hours ago. NV is still in play, but all that's left is mail in, the majority from Democratic Las Vegas.

And much to ASF's dismay, GA is still in play. Trump has a hefty lead of over 100k votes, but only 80% of the vote has been counted and there are a ton of mail in and absentee ballots from urban areas to be counted. GA has 16 electoral votes, same as MI.

The nation wide popular vote is Biden by a little less than 2%, and given that the final poll average was over 7%, it could be telling us that there are a lot of mail in Biden votes left to be counted.

I'm not sure what the recount laws are in MI. It says 2,000 votes which seems really small given the size of the state. It can't be a precinct requirement as what we learned in 2000 is that if you're going to do a recount, you have to recount the entire state. There is no automatic recount provision in Wisconsin law but a candidate can request one if the margin is 1% or less, so that will be a threshold to keep an eye on. Biden's current lead there is .7%. PA can accept mail in ballots postmarked 11/3 or earlier through this Friday.

The legal challenges will be interesting. Apparently PA's election law, unlike all other states with mail-in/drop off, doesn't accept ballots that are not in a security sleeve. Biden's team could challenge that part of the law. Security sleeves are there to protect the privacy of the voter, not of the vote itself.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Postby Hawktawk » Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:03 am

I woke up yesterday morning feeling anxious realizing we were about 5% short of being a banana republic with nukes. This morning its a razors edge from hopping off the cliff with the orange loon which will be utter chaos with a republican senate running interference for a lawless man who declared victory nd demanded voting be stopped with millions of legitimate votes still out. Its promising at the presidential level but I'm personally disgusted that the senate that should have voted this president out of power in jan, the senate that has shamelessly defended the indefensible for 4 years will likely return to power, ideology be damned, the sickening sleazy Lindsey graham winning in a blowout is just a testimony to the racist base in his state that would vote for adolf Hitler if he were a R. As for Trump I am incredulous he is even competitive in states overrun by a virus Trump claims is rounding the turn. White no college people in 6 or 7 states may be the difference along with Cubans and other latino minorities in Florida who have been pounded with spanish radio ads calling Biden a socialist for months.Never mind it's a lie. Low information voters are Trump's base.

Once again Biden has nearly a 2% lead nationally with 25 million votes out. If this country had a one person one vote system it would be all over and it would accurately reflect the wishes of a majority of americans without this continual headache every 4 years.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Postby RiverDog » Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:14 am

No sense crying about the electoral college. Love it or hate it, it is what it is and won't change in our lifetime.

Michigan just turned blue. After trailing all night, Biden has finally taken a 10,000 vote lead, or .2%. With so many mail in/drop off votes left in Democratic areas left to be counted, some of the talking heads are saying that MI might not be all that close, that Biden could end up winning the state by several percentage points. If Biden doesn't lose any ground in NV and WI, he wins.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Postby I-5 » Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:35 am

I went to bed last night trusting the process, whichever way it goes. Trump really outed himself with his strongman pronouncements at 1:30am about stopping the vote. He was right in a way, votes have stopped. But it's the counting he really wanted to stop, and from all I've seen, this is one of the smoothest and safest elections ever...thanks in part to mail in voting.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Postby RiverDog » Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:18 am

I-5 wrote:I went to bed last night trusting the process, whichever way it goes. Trump really outed himself with his strongman pronouncements at 1:30am about stopping the vote. He was right in a way, votes have stopped. But it's the counting he really wanted to stop, and from all I've seen, this is one of the smoothest and safest elections ever...thanks in part to mail in voting.


Yeah, for all the threats of intimidation at polling places, I didn't hear of any incidents.

There's still a huge number of ballots to be counted, but from the profiles of those left, if anything, they'll pad Biden's lead. There's a chance that PA could flip, but we probably won't find out for a couple more days. There will also be some recounts, but they're unlikely to change any outcomes, either. In the entire state of Florida in 2000, the recount shaved just 1247 votes off Bush's total, and most of those were due to the punch card ballots that are more difficult to process (the hanging chads) than the optical ballots being used nowadays.

We're also going to have some court challenges, although it's not clear to me what kind of argument they can make besides random incidents of people receiving ballots for dead people and such things. Plus if the electoral college count remains as it is today, 270 for Biden, the exact number needed to win, there's the possibility of a faithless elector going off the reservation.

There'll still be a lot of drama, but I'm relieved that the process has entered its final stage with the electoral college scheduled to vote on Dec. 8th.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Postby Aseahawkfan » Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:51 am

This is nuts. Haha. This election was everything it was hyped to be. Hate vs. Hate to the bitter end. With likely a fight in the courts for a recount.

This may yet be my ideal situation. Democratic House and President with Republican Senate. Please make that happen fate. That is what we need.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Postby RiverDog » Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:15 pm

Aseahawkfan wrote:This is nuts. Haha. This election was everything it was hyped to be. Hate vs. Hate to the bitter end. With likely a fight in the courts for a recount.


Trump has already requested a recount in Wisconsin, but he's not close enough in Michigan to request a recount there unless the court orders one. Pennsylvania is tightening up. Trump is demanding that the Supreme Court step in and stop the count. Good luck with that one.

Aseahawkfan wrote:This may yet be my ideal situation. Democratic House and President with Republican Senate. Please make that happen fate. That is what we need.


It would be my ideal situation, too. Give me gridlock or give me death!
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Re: 2020 General Election

Postby Aseahawkfan » Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:12 pm

Poisonous Personality vs. Poisonous Platform with the courts getting involved. Probably won't know for a few days. Courts should move quick on this.

After this year Riverdog, you should be able to believe in polls again. Trump has weird support. No one could really call it. His support seems to come from strange areas that make polling difficult.

Trump's people are too busy working blue collar jobs to be near phones for polling. haha.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Postby RiverDog » Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:55 pm

Aseahawkfan wrote:Poisonous Personality vs. Poisonous Platform with the courts getting involved. Probably won't know for a few days. Courts should move quick on this.

After this year Riverdog, you should be able to believe in polls again. Trump has weird support. No one could really call it. His support seems to come from strange areas that make polling difficult.

Trump's people are too busy working blue collar jobs to be near phones for polling. haha.


They definitely have their limitations, that's for sure. We still have to wait for all the votes to be counted to get a good handle on just how far off they were.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Postby I-5 » Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:11 pm

I bet some Kentucky coal mining families affected by black lung but who voted for Trump are secretly relieved that if Trump loses, they won't be in danger of losing ACA coverage anytime soon. I watched a depressing documentary on their situation.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Postby Hawktawk » Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:55 pm

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5245 ... on-results

This would be great. A very welcome byproduct of this weird election. GTFO Nancy and take Schumer with you.People like me didn't vote for you because of policy, we voted from you because of a wish for competence and dignified behavior at the top of the ticket. But the lack of coattails was telling. You need to pull to the center or you will have lots of election nights like this .

RIP to my departed parents, I finally voted for your party after 61 years. But honestly mom and Dad you wouldnt recognize it today, certainly not you mom being gone 17 years but even you dad gone for 7. Nor do I recognize my former GOP or the people who continue to support it no matter how bizarre and illegal and unhinged the man acts.There is plenty to quibble policy wise in both parties.I will be relieved if Biden is selected other than the loon will have nearly 3 months more to be disruptive, generally unamerican, pardon sleazebags etc. I hope he golfs all day every day.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Postby Aseahawkfan » Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:00 pm

I don't like Pelosi or Schumer. They come off elitists who feel they should be able to tell us what to do. A centrist Democrat would be a welcome change to the leadership. Then again after Trump is gone, I'd be ok with the Democrats going full looney left so a centrist Republican could easily take back the presidency.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Postby RiverDog » Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:45 pm

Hawktawk wrote:https://thehill.com/homenews/house/524503-centrist-democrats-talk-leadership-changes-after-negative-election-results

This would be great. A very welcome byproduct of this weird election. GTFO Nancy and take Schumer with you.People like me didn't vote for you because of policy, we voted from you because of a wish for competence and dignified behavior at the top of the ticket. But the lack of coattails was telling. You need to pull to the center or you will have lots of election nights like this.


I completely agree. The reason why Trump made it close was that Biden, whether he deserved it or not, was seen as being played by the liberal wing of the party. As John Kasich, a prominent Republican very opposed to Trump, said earlier that everyone needs to listen to what the nation is telling them. I'm almost as glad that the Dems got their ears clipped as I am that Trump went down to defeat.

Hawktawk wrote:RIP to my departed parents, I finally voted for your party after 61 years. But honestly mom and Dad you wouldnt recognize it today, certainly not you mom being gone 17 years but even you dad gone for 7. Nor do I recognize my former GOP or the people who continue to support it no matter how bizarre and illegal and unhinged the man acts.There is plenty to quibble policy wise in both parties.I will be relieved if Biden is selected other than the loon will have nearly 3 months more to be disruptive, generally unamerican, pardon sleazebags etc. I hope he golfs all day every day.


The next 2+ months will be interesting. I suspect that the lawsuits go nowhere. With the exception of ordering some recounts, I can't see any respectable judge making a ruling without some type of credible evidence. I doubt that the Supreme Court even takes it up.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Postby RiverDog » Thu Nov 05, 2020 6:02 am

It's looking more and more like Biden is going to flip Georgia. After mail in counting results from Wednesday were posted, Biden had narrowed the gap to about 21,000 votes, or .4%. According to the numbers I'm seeing, 96.9% of the Georgia vote has been counted, and with about 4.8 million cast, that leaves about 144,000 ballots remaining to be counted, all of which are mail-in/drop off and most of which are from the Atlanta, Savanah, and Columbus metro areas that favor Biden.

Winning Georgia and its 16 electoral votes would give Biden some insurance against an unexpected turn of events in AZ or NV, a successful legal challenge in any one of the other swing states, or a faithless elector when the Electoral College meets.

According to the reports I was seeing last night, the Trump people were mortified at the rate at which Trump's lead in Georgia was dwindling. One Trump campaign official was quoted that if Georgia falls to Biden, that Trump would be going from the White House to the outhouse.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Postby c_hawkbob » Thu Nov 05, 2020 6:27 am

Yeah, I know it's about over because someone ripped up the Biden/Harris sign I had in my yard! They left Amy McGrath alone because she lost though ... Gave the wife and I quite a grin this morning imagining the frustration building up in whichever of our neighbors did it! (we have a decent guess LOL! :)
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Re: 2020 General Election

Postby Hawktawk » Thu Nov 05, 2020 6:39 am

I've got a lot of Trump supporting friends, many more than not. Some of them are going absolutely off on FB about wild conspiracy theories involving manufactured votes. Political campaign professionals and media people were telling us for weeks this would likely be a red mirage election due to massive absentee balloting coupled with republican state officials refusing an early count of absentee ballets received and the inability to count them before counting same day votes leading to huge trump leads evaporating . Were these stupid rules not in place this would have been decided yesterday. Our election system is a mess no matter what happens here. Good luck getting the wolves guarding the chicken coop to enact any reforms to this rickety antiquated overwhelmed system.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Postby RiverDog » Thu Nov 05, 2020 7:20 am

Hawktawk wrote:I've got a lot of Trump supporting friends, many more than not. Some of them are going absolutely off on FB about wild conspiracy theories involving manufactured votes. Political campaign professionals and media people were telling us for weeks this would likely be a red mirage election due to massive absentee balloting coupled with republican state officials refusing an early count of absentee ballets received and the inability to count them before counting same day votes leading to huge trump leads evaporating . Were these stupid rules not in place this would have been decided yesterday. Our election system is a mess no matter what happens here. Good luck getting the wolves guarding the chicken coop to enact any reforms to this rickety antiquated overwhelmed system.


The system is working just fine. There have been no documented incidents of fraud or incompetence on a scale anywhere near big enough to influence a result. As Russell Wilson would say, don't pay attention to the noise.

Delayed results are a necessary evil if we are going to move away from in person voting. The way it used to work was that you signed a book, produced a signed voter registration card, and the election official could confirm your signature on the spot. You then step into the booth, made your selections, pulled the lever and your vote got tabulated immediately. With mail in/drop off, that process is way more complicated and takes time as ballots do not have a physical person associated with them, only a signature that has to match a pre-existing record.

In some states, there are some nonsensical election rules, such as in Pennsylvania, which doesn't let election officials touch a ballot until the morning of election day, so not only do they have to count the ballots, they first have to validate the signatures. Here in WA, our ballots are processed the day they are received, and if you're computer savvy, you can check to see if your ballot was accepted and if it wasn't, such as if we forgot to sign it, we have a chance to correct it.

We here in WA have the advantage of having had a 100% mail in/drop off balloting process in place for well over a decade. Most of these states where voting is slow had to throw together a system very quickly, which means acquiring equipment and hiring and training personnel. Personally I'm amazed that we haven't had more problems than we have as it seems to me like things are progressing very smoothly.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Postby curmudgeon » Thu Nov 05, 2020 7:56 am

We heard “Russia interfered with our election!” for four years yet “there’s nothing to see here” is now the battle cry. LMFAO!
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Re: 2020 General Election

Postby Aseahawkfan » Thu Nov 05, 2020 11:01 am

curmudgeon wrote:We heard “Russia interfered with our election!” for four years yet “there’s nothing to see here” is now the battle cry. LMFAO!


Did you expect any different from either Party? Republicans are mostly calm because a lot of them, especially Republicans like McConnell, don't like Trump. He's poison in the party to them. I believe a good portion of Republicans want to see Trump fall. He's a tiresome force of chaos and selfishness.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Postby RiverDog » Thu Nov 05, 2020 11:05 am

Nevada released some vote tallies and Biden increased his slim lead from under 7,000 votes to nearly 12,000. Trump's margin in Georgia continues to narrow, currently at around 13,500. A court in Pennsylvania ruled that Trump observers could stand closer to watch the ballot counting process but they did not find any wrongdoing.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Postby Aseahawkfan » Thu Nov 05, 2020 11:13 am

Apparently we won't know North Carolina until November 12th as they won't call until the limit on mail in ballots are done.

Likely won't be necessary. Trump looks like he's going to lose barring the courts interfering.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Postby RiverDog » Thu Nov 05, 2020 12:40 pm

Aseahawkfan wrote:Apparently we won't know North Carolina until November 12th as they won't call until the limit on mail in ballots are done.

Likely won't be necessary. Trump looks like he's going to lose barring the courts interfering.


They're saying that we should know about Pennsylvania tonight. I just saw PA Sen. Bob Casey, a man who has run in state wide elections in Pennsylvania, confidently predict that Biden will take the state. If Biden does take either PA or GA, it's over.

,
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Re: 2020 General Election

Postby Aseahawkfan » Thu Nov 05, 2020 4:13 pm

RiverDog wrote:They're saying that we should know about Pennsylvania tonight. I just saw PA Sen. Bob Casey, a man who has run in state wide elections in Pennsylvania, confidently predict that Biden will take the state. If Biden does take either PA or GA, it's over.

,


Almost everything I predicted came true. It is likely because I was the least affected by Trump, so could more clearly what was going on. People hated Trump so much, they had trouble seeing how bad the Democratic platform really is.

Now we'll see in 4 more years if it holds. Maybe Kamala is better than I think, but we shall see. The Republicans could field a bad candidate again.

My feeling is if the Republicans find a Latin Obama-like charisma conservative, they will crush the Democrats in the next election. People are really tired of the race-baiting, one-sided negative history, tax and spend economics, no law and order, cop hating, climate Armageddon politics, and all the far left pushing their agenda. If I lived in Oregon, I would be finding a way out as fast as I could. They are going to attract drug users like crazy there. I hope many of the Washington heroin addicts and shroom users head there. I have to start looking to move to a better state. This crap is terrible.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Postby I-5 » Thu Nov 05, 2020 4:48 pm

Almost everything I predicted came true.


What exactly did you predict that is different from anyone else? I certainly didn't predict a landslide, but I did mention Professor Lichtmans 13 keys to the White House formula predicting a Biden win, which looks like it's going to be accurate once again. As for finding an Obama-like figure in the republican party, that would be impressive....and who would that be? The closest I've seen is Romney in terms of someone who wants to find a common decency, but isn't the most charismatic guy. Anyone else?
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Re: 2020 General Election

Postby Aseahawkfan » Thu Nov 05, 2020 5:22 pm

I-5 wrote:What exactly did you predict that is different from anyone else? I certainly didn't predict a landslide, but I did mention that the 13 keys formula pointing to a change at the top, which looks like it's going to be accurate once again. As for finding an Obama-like figure in the republican party, that would be impressive....and who would that be? The closest I've seen is Romney in terms of someone who wants to find a common decency, but isn't the most charismatic guy. Anyone else?


I predicted a tight election due to the coronavirus or Trump wins. I predicted the Democratic platform was poisonous and this Blue Wave everyone was talking about was BS. I predicted only the coronavirus would stop Trump's re-election. That people don't like cop hating defunding the police, race-baiting politics, Armageddon climate politics, and all the other stuff I mentioned that is part of the Democratic platform. They are tired of that crap and getting more tired of it as the years go on. The only thing that saved the Dems this election cycle is a toxic personality like Trump and a completely idiotic handling of the coronavirus.

Now once again I am not saying all Democrats believe in everything the left is selling or even that you do as I don't know. But if you're not looking hard at the Democratic Party and the fact the Democrats almost got beat by the biggest jackass narcissist to ever win the presidency, then you're not interested in listening to the nation. Claiming to see what people are concerned with while not actually listening is not a great way to manage your party.

As far as who the Republicans I have no idea, I don't follow Republicans well enough. I watched a video the other day with Mitch McConnell. First time I ever heard him speak. He sounded pretty intelligent. I can see why he won re-election and why he is such a capable leader of the Senate. He chooses his words wisely and speaks like he governs for the people, not himself. I don't think he has the juice to carry a presidency as most people at this point are so tired of old men running the nation, they don't want another one next election.

If I were the Republicans, I would find some young Cuban from Florida with a lot of charisma and a centrist conservative belief and run him. No idea who that might be, but that would be my goal. That guy would likely win by such a huge margin that it would be tough to stop him from 8 years. They'll have to find him first.

I know more local politicians than national because the Democrats in Washington State are terrible to live under. They turned Seattle and Everett into homeless drug addict cesspools that were not there in my youth. It sickens me to see what they've done with this beautiful state. Our Governor protects 100% proven child killers from execution. I really dislike Jay Inslee. I get not using the death penalty when you're not sure about something. The governor should give a pardon or commute a sentence to life if you don't have 100% surety of the crime. We have a couple of felons on death row who killed some grandparents for drug money, then killed their 4 year old grandchildren because they saw their faces. Can you imagine having your parents and 4 year old children killed together then having some governor let that animal live? No. I could not tolerate. I try to kill him myself in that circumstance.

This case. These people should be put down like the sick animals they are. We kill wolves that come out of the forest and kill a child and I have more sympathy for the wolf because he just looking to eat. But sick human animals like this need to be put down. But not Jay Inslee, he's all about that acting humane with humans who gave up their humanity cards long ago. Suffice it to say I despise these type of people. I would put these sick animals down without of a second thought. Just like that Norwegian killer Brevik relaxing in a Norwegian prison with paid for friends. Norway's idea of justice is to let a man kill 70 children and then pay for him to have friends in prison, so they can let him out in 21 years. This is why if something like this happens to your family, you have to spend the energy to take care of it yourself because the legal system doesn't get it done even with 100% proof.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Carnation_murders
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Re: 2020 General Election

Postby RiverDog » Thu Nov 05, 2020 5:26 pm

Aseahawkfan wrote:Almost everything I predicted came true.


Oh, quit gloating! Who was it that told me: Georgia is not going to flip. So I would get that out of your head. I hate to pop your bubble, but currently Trump's lead is .1% and 3486 votes with one more 'dump' to come tonight and one more tomorrow morning.

I also recall you saying that Arizona would never vote for Biden, yet here we are.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Postby Aseahawkfan » Thu Nov 05, 2020 5:36 pm

RiverDog wrote:Oh, quit gloating! Who was it that told me that Georgia wasn't going to flip and to get that out of my head?


I can gloat all I want Mr. Landslide. Mr. Trump would have lost without the coronavirus. Mr. Posting of Polls. And I5 Trump would have still lost without the coronavirus. The Democrats are doing such great things and I'm asking lucid questions about why people think what they do is ok, while ignoring all the trash ideas the Democrats are pushing.

I was right. Oh well if Georgia flips. You guys don't want to admit I was right, go ahead and play like I didn't predict a bunch of this. I told my conservative buddies the same thing when they predicting landslides for Trump. Total BS.

I'd be taking money off you and anyone else on this forum pre-coronavirus with a Trump victory.

You end up being right, you get to gloat a little. Just like you would have done and I5 and the rest if Trump had lost in a landslide. So take that garbage elsewhere because you, I5, and the rest would have been gloating like crazy if you had been right.

Just like IDhawkman and the conservatives would have been gloating if then had been right.

But you weren't. It was a tight election just like I told you it would be.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Postby Aseahawkfan » Thu Nov 05, 2020 5:38 pm

RiverDog wrote:Oh, quit gloating! Who was it that told me: Georgia is not going to flip. So I would get that out of your head.

I also recall you saying that Arizona would never vote for Biden, yet here we are.


I don't recall saying that about Arizona. I do recall saying that about Texas. I don't know Arizona very well, but I do know Texas.

Whatever bud, I was right and you were wrong. Again. And now you don't want to admit it, even though your posts are all over this forum claiming a huge Trump landslide.

So you don't want to give credit where it is due. Typical.

I expect that from I5. He never changes his mind on anything I can recall even with evidence to the contrary. He ignores when he's wrong and moves on to something else or pretends he never said it. I'm used to that with him. He's tried and true leftist with an inability to see past his personal viewpoint and the liberal media sources he uses to reinforce that viewpoint. I don't know him and only loosely debate knowing he will never change his mind, never admit he is wrong, and never believe evidence against what he believes such as the Iran Deal being absolutely terrible, that Obama did the child separations and built the facilities attributed to Trump, that Obama has conducted more drone assassinations than Trump, and other evidence that clearly shows Obama was a centrist Democrat whose most left leaning ideas were healthcare and that Trump is a centrist Republican who is anti-war, pro-business, and whose biggest chink in the armor was the coronavirus and his inability control his stupid tweeting and mouth. He wasn't a Russian spy or any of that trash. I've come to the point where I kind of accept I5 is what he is and you won't get much more than liberal propaganda from reading his posts.

As far as you Riverdog, you always grab onto an idea and beat it like a deadhorse. Then when you're wrong, takes you a bit to finally admit it. I think you owe me something like 5 beers or something with our loose bets. I'll likely never collect as you live too far away and I'm not much of a traveler. It's not like we have written contracts on this.

I do like knowing that I can still see what's going on in the world and even sports pretty clearly, even when overly emotional or biased people try to tell me otherwise. Some things are clear as day if you look at the available evidence. It was clear as day that this would be a tight election.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Postby RiverDog » Thu Nov 05, 2020 5:42 pm

RiverDog wrote:Oh, quit gloating! Who was it that told me that Georgia wasn't going to flip and to get that out of my head?


Aseahawkfan wrote:I can gloat all I want Mr. Landslide. Mr. Trump would have lost without the coronavirus. Mr. Posting of Polls. And I5 Trump would have still lost without the coronavirus. The Democrats are doing such great things and I'm asking lucid questions about why people think what they do while ignoring all the trash ideas the Democrats puashing.

I was right. Oh well if Georgia flips. You guys don't want to admit I was right, go ahead and play like I didn't predict a bunch of this. I told my conservative buddies the same thing when they predicting landslides for Trump. Total BS.

I'd be taking money off you and anyone else on this forum pre-coronavirus with a Trump victory.

You end up being right, you get to gloat a little. Just like you would have done and I5 and the rest if Trump had lost in a landslide. So take that garbage elsewhere because you, I5, and the rest would have been gloating like crazy if you had been right.

Just like IDhawkman and the conservatives would have been gloating if you had been right.

But you weren't. It was a tight election just like I told you it would be.


Look, I fully admitted that I was wrong, and I'll do it again: I was way off base in my assessments.

But you're beginning to sound a lot like Donald Trump with your bragging. You've made your fair share of miscalculations. Did you not tell us that you knew people that lived in Arizona and how the state would never vote for Biden?
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Re: 2020 General Election

Postby Aseahawkfan » Thu Nov 05, 2020 6:01 pm

RiverDog wrote:Look, I fully admitted that I was wrong, and I'll do it again: I was way off base in my assessments.

But you're beginning to sound a lot like Donald Trump with your bragging. You've made your fair share of miscalculations. Did you not tell us that you knew people that lived in Arizona and how the state would never vote for Biden?


I remember saying this about Texas. I have people in Texas. They don't like Biden there. Arizona I don't know as well. But half my family is from Texas on my mom's side. Even half my dad's family is from Texas. I think I even told you to get back to me about the blue wave if they flip Texas. Find the quote and I'll admit to it.

At this point I don't care, all I know right now is all the crap talking Democrats and Republicans telling me this and that about landslides were wrong. I told everyone this Trump Hate vs. Trump love, which is nearly evenly split. The Democratic Platform is toxic and the Republican Presidential Candidate is Toxic. So you have two toxic sides going against each other, which is why you get this. The most contested election of our lifetimes.

I want this election done. Then I don't know if I'll even have the motivation to return to the forum anyway, so you can all have a rest from me. I came back when Donald Trump won the presidency to have a place to talk about The Narcissist Asshat in The White House. It got less fun to talk about once all the conservatives like Idhawkman and burrton left as all the other people were tried and true leftists and Trump haters besides you. The Trump Haters and leftists are mostly irrational and ridiculous and not much interested in evidence or Constitutional values, just buying whatever the left wing media selling much like the Fox News and Trump lovers do. But it's not very interesting to discuss at that point.

You're probably the only reason I kept coming to this forum as you least provide some modicum of interesting conversation the political forum compared to anyone else. At least you don't buy what both these sides are selling. But once Biden is president as it looks like will happen, politics should get boring again. No use hanging around to talk about a boring president.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Postby RiverDog » Thu Nov 05, 2020 7:43 pm

Aseahawkfan wrote:You're probably the only reason I kept coming to this forum as you least provide some modicum of interesting conversation the political forum compared to anyone else. At least you don't buy what both these sides are selling. But once Biden is president as it looks like will happen, politics should get boring again. No use hanging around to talk about a boring president.


I appreciate the complement. It's probably time to back down our own rhetoric, so I'll apologize. I just got a little tired of the self congratulations.

I also appreciate your sharing more of your parent's background and would be interested in hearing more. Lord knows I've spilled my guts about a lot of my parent's life experiences. It might make an interesting topic, a genealogy thread.

There's going to be plenty to talk about. There always is. If anything, there will be more diversity of opinions as I-5, Hawktalk, and Cbob are probably going to line up with Biden and you and me are likely to be on the opposite side. And who knows, maybe Mack, mykc, and North Hawk will pop their heads in here more often.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Postby I-5 » Thu Nov 05, 2020 9:26 pm

If you look at any post I made before the election, I wasn't supremely confident, which is why I was impressed with Riv's confidence. But you know what? When it's all said and done, if AZ, PA, GA, NV all go to Biden, then I think we will see that it wasn't really that close after all. I was definitely on the cautiously optimistic side, but did believe Biden would win.

I think a Biden presidency won't be boring (as much as we would all prefer it to be boring), just like an Obama presidency wasnt boring. If anything, Fox News is going to go even crazier and get Trump sycophants foaming at the mouth even more than they are now (if that's even possible).

Hopefully Trump just gave his last official press conference as president elect tonight, whatever you want to call that nonsense and treasonous speech. I've never seen a more pathetic display from anyone, let alone from the supposed leader of the free world.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Postby RiverDog » Fri Nov 06, 2020 4:58 am

I-5 wrote:If you look at any post I made before the election, I wasn't supremely confident, which is why I was impressed with Riv's confidence. But you know what? When it's all said and done, if AZ, PA, GA, NV all go to Biden, then I think we will see that it wasn't really that close after all. I was definitely on the cautiously optimistic side, but did believe Biden would win.


One analyst, relying on the math created by how the mail in/drop off votes are breaking in various counties in Pennsylvania, which has been very consistent, claims that Biden will eventually win the state by about 44,000 votes. He's currently behind by 18,000 with about 163,000 left to count. Georgia flipped last night by 1,000 votes with about 10,000 left to count. If all the current trends hold, and there's no reason to believe that they won't, Biden would win 306 electoral votes, or 56.9% of the electoral college. The nation wide popular vote shows Biden barely ahead with a little under 51%. Biden is likely to win the electoral college by 57%-43%, or 14%, nearly 5 times his current popular vote margin of less than 3%. So much for the electoral college always favoring the Republican.

I-5 wrote:I think a Biden presidency won't be boring (as much as we would all prefer it to be boring), just like an Obama presidency wasnt boring. If anything, Fox News is going to go even crazier and get Trump sycophants foaming at the mouth even more than they are now (if that's even possible).


We'll see. My hope is that someone from the younger generation of Republicans, perhaps Marco Rubio, steps into the void created when Trump leaves office and brings some sanity back to the party.

I-5 wrote:Hopefully Trump just gave his last official press conference as president elect tonight, whatever you want to call that nonsense and treasonous speech. I've never seen a more pathetic display from anyone, let alone from the supposed leader of the free world.


Well, you can't really call it a press conference because he didn't take any questions, and you arguably can't call it treasonous because he's not aiding an enemy during a time of war. But otherwise, I agree with your assessment as it was IMO outrageous and should have been an embarrassment to anyone that supported Trump as the man is simply in denial and can't accept defeat. Thankfully we have less than 3 more months to put up with him, at least in the Oval Office.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Postby c_hawkbob » Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:28 am

Biden is likely to win the electoral college by 57%-43%, or 14%, nearly 5 times his current popular vote margin of less than 3%. So much for the electoral college always favoring the Republican.


I don't care which party the electoral college favors, I am and have always been against it on purely philosophical grounds. I understand why it exists, but we no longer live in that world, today borders, especially state lines, are nearly irrelevant. The protections the electoral college was implemented for are no longer necessary. It's way past time for one person = one vote.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Postby RiverDog » Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:55 am

Biden is likely to win the electoral college by 57%-43%, or 14%, nearly 5 times his current popular vote margin of less than 3%. So much for the electoral college always favoring the Republican.


c_hawkbob wrote:I don't care which party the electoral college favors, I am and have always been against it on purely philosophical grounds. I understand why it exists, but we no longer live in that world, today borders, especially state lines, are nearly irrelevant. The protections the electoral college was implemented for are no longer necessary. It's way past time for one person = one vote.


One person one vote applies only in a pure democracy, of which we are not. We are a representative republic.

If you want to reform the country as a pure democracy, then we should be calling for a constitutional convention and throw away the entire document and start over again. The electoral college is not the only institution that does not conform to the pure democratic model. The way we apportion Senators, for example, is not based on one person, one vote. If we are to follow your logic, then we should just do away with state borders and vote for 100 Senators based on the nation wide popular vote. And while we're at it, let's hold a nation wide elections for the 435 House positions, too. Who cares about Congressional districts. After all, they aren't based on the actual population, either. They are apportioned by an estimate that's performed once every 10 years.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Postby RiverDog » Fri Nov 06, 2020 7:09 am

Pennsylvania just flipped. Biden is now leading there by 5500 votes. That's the dagger in the heart.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Postby c_hawkbob » Fri Nov 06, 2020 7:28 am

RiverDog wrote:One person one vote applies only in a pure democracy, of which we are not. We are a representative republic.

If you want to reform the country as a pure democracy, then we should be calling for a constitutional convention and throw away the entire document and start over again. The electoral college is not the only institution that does not conform to the pure democratic model. The way we apportion Senators, for example, is not based on one person, one vote. If we are to follow your logic, then we should just do away with state borders and vote for 100 Senators based on the nation wide popular vote. And while we're at it, let's hold a nation wide elections for the 435 House positions, too. Who cares about Congressional districts. After all, they aren't based on the actual population, either. They are apportioned by an estimate that's performed once every 10 years.

What a load of crap! The electoral college is NOT the cornerstone of the foundation of this country. We needn't "tear up the constitution" to do away with outdated conventions such as this.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Postby RiverDog » Fri Nov 06, 2020 7:50 am

c_hawkbob wrote:What a load of crap! The electoral college is NOT the cornerstone of the foundation of this country. We needn't "tear up the constitution" to do away with outdated conventions such as this.


If we are to elect our POTUS by virtue of a nation wide popular vote, then why not use the same method to elect Senators and Congressmen/women? One person, one vote. Right?

I'd argue that it's not outdated. Our country is so expansive and socially diverse that all areas of the country require representation. A pure popular vote would concentrate power exclusively in large urban areas with much different interests than those people that live in rural areas. There would be zero motivation for a POTUS candidate to appeal to less populated areas hundreds of miles from a large city.
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