Breaking Down the 2020 Election

[RiverDog]

The numbers aren't quite final, but they're close enough to where we can have a good discussion on what this election is telling us. A quick review of the results:

Barring a major revolt by the electoral college, Joe Biden has been declared the winner and is likely to receive 306 electoral votes. There's still a couple of states in doubt, including Georgia and North Carolina. The popular vote as of this morning stands at 50.68% for Biden, 47.65% for Trump. These results contrast dramatically from the predictions from the polls and other indicators.

Turnout was historically high, with more people voting than ever before. More people voted for Biden in this election than for any one candidate in any election in our history. The 2nd most votes ever received was by Donald Trump in 2020. It was the highest voter turnout percentage in over 100 years.

In the Senate, the Republicans, despite having more seats to defend by over a 2-1 margin, appear to have defied expectations and control the chamber. The current declared races shows there being a 48-48 tie, but R candidates have a substantial lead in two uncalled races in AK and NC. There are two races in Georgia that due to GA law, appear to be going to a one-on-one runoff. The Republicans seem certain to win at least one of those. The Democrats were expected to flip the Senate.

In the House, where every seat is up for re-election every 2 years, the Democrats have unofficially claimed 215 seats and are leading in 7 other contests. The Republicans have won 196 and are leading in 17 uncalled races. If these numbers hold true, the Dems will suffer a net loss of 8-10 seats. That, too, is a major surprise as Democrats weren't expected to lose ground.

Of the 11 governorships that were up for grabs, the Republicans have won 7, 5 of those in very red states. The two Dem wins are in NC and DL. No big surprises in any of those races.

So what is this election telling us? Not to trust the polls? The media? How did the pandemic affect the results? What election laws need to be addressed? Should we be relying on the USPS to the degree that we did? And where in the hell did all those Trump votes come from?

[Hawktawk]

I've been scratching my head over this one as the polls unfold and I think Mitt Romney was pretty close when he said it reinforced conservative ideology but was a referendum on a person at the federal level.I think enough people had seen enough it drove the overwhelming anti Trump turnout. The Trump faithful also turned out en masse as well(motivated by polls? (Obama with a bullhorn for 2 weeks in the streets of a state that went big for Trump?) and their high participation in purple areas and red areas with votes on senate races etc put some of those races in the R column somewhat unexpectedly. Too many bought the streets aflame rhetoric without being able to process that without some policing reforms(which passed down ballot in several state) and removing the fascist driving the protests it will never improve.

But the split result tells me that lots of independents including me now simply wanted the man gone, we've waited literally since jan 20,2017 to vote against him and his idiots and his red hats and his MAGA cult and his proud boys waving TRUMP 2020 flags from their pickups.

But many Biden voters also didn't want the new green deal, reparations and diminished law enforcement etc so they split the ticket. It had to be the few crossover Rs and primarily independents splitting the ticket. I won't lie I voted either D or daffy duck right down the ticket and Ill go so far as to say I wouldnt cry if the 2 election runoffs in Georgia go D so the fat turkey jowl scumball enabler of lunacy and corruption McConnell is removed from the leadership of the senate. I know that's a rare view but Ill never blindly support the party ever again.I will be interesting to see how this unparalleled sour grapes campaign by Trump might play with turnout in Georgia. I've seen interviews with Trump supporters who say they are ready to move on since its over so maybe some of the issue Trump voters are waking up and smelling the coffee. Is another month of whining and complaining as Biden ignores him and assembles a team going to help Rs in these races? im sure they are polling and whatever that says thats what McConnel is going to do in terms of whether to say GTFO or fight on, not the american people.

[RiverDog]

It varies from region to region. As someone once said, all politics are local.

Biden was hurt in south Florida by aggressive ad campaigns that painted him as a socialist to many Cuban Americans. Whether or not they were fair or not is beside the point. And south Florida and the Cubans aren't the only region and demographic group that do not support socialism. Below is a quote from the NYT:

In Nebraska’s Second Congressional District, the Democrats nominated a Bernie Sanders-style candidate — Kara Eastman, who backs “Medicare for all” and was endorsed by progressive groups like the Justice Democrats — for a House seat. She lost her race by almost five percentage points, while Biden won the district by almost seven points.

FYI Nebraska's 2nd is Omaha-Council Bluffs metro area, by far the largest urban area in the state.

Here's another quote, this one from the Washington Post:

Centrists such as (Rep. Abigail) Spanberger (D-Va.) face the unpleasant fact that progressive views are held by either the majority or a strong minority of the party’s voters. Take the “defund the police” movement as an example. Polls taken this summer showed large majorities of voters opposed the idea. An Economist/YouGov poll from June found that 53 percent of voters opposed defunding the police while a Politico/Morning Consult poll found that 58 percent of registered voters opposed it. Both polls, however, showed the idea being supported by Democrats (44 percent and 48 percent, respectively). The fact that a majority of independents opposed defunding the police in both polls is beside the point to progressives. No party will suppress discussion of an idea that a plurality of its voters support, no matter what the potential consequences.

The same is true of socialism. Socialism polls poorly no matter what survey one looks at. But those polls also find that a majority of Democrats have a favorable view of the ideology. A summer Gallup analysis found that 65 percent of Democrats have a favorable view of socialism, while the 2020 primary exit polls found between 47 and 60 percent of Democratic primary voters viewed socialism favorably. Indeed, one poll even found that Democrats who viewed socialism favorably outnumbered those who said the same of capitalism. Socialism doesn’t play well with swing voters in Spanberger’s educated, affluent suburban district, but it’s what a majority of Democratic voters like.

For years, we've been told that the country is primed for a socialistic move, wants a single payer insurance system, and so on and so forth. But the elections do not support this argument as this trend was repeated nation wide. Undoubtedly one of the messages is that the nation is not ready for socialism.

[Hawktawk]

For one thing defunding police is bad wording as virtually nobody other than the utter lunatic fringe supports having no cops. They support a line item zero start budget coupled with reforms. If you say police reform my guess the polls are more neutral but it seems every side on the fringe overplayed their hand on every crisis. The mainstream of the democratic party made clear by elevating Biden they wanted a centrist party and if it is I might just keep supporting it.

As for "socialism" we are rife with socialism, just as Bernie Sanders says so well. "republicans believe in socialism, just for the very wealthy." The exchange of wealth during this pandemic looting the PPP fund by wealthy corporations is only the latest example of subsidies to rich constituents and supporters. The massive bailouts to the farmers, 4 times the previous administration to offset his dumb ass tariff war with china etc as they fly their trump flags is a great example of socialism for the rich. We've handed out 2 trillion in stimulus right out of our great great great grandkids future, pumped trillions in paper money from the Fed to bolster the markets which benefits overwhelmingly wealthy people and to which only 45% of americans have any benefit from whatsoever.. When did wall street become too big to fail? people get filthy rich off the market bubble and then get bailed out?
A good friend, a democrat shared a meme I found interesting that I've never heard it framed that way. Why is socialism such a bad word? what is wrong with wanting to be sure everyone has food and medical care? Thats being a good person". I've gone through life as a borderline upper middle class guy and staunch conservative republican clinging on to this supply side economics plan the republicans have preached word for word. I've worked my butt off for every employer and have been underpaid and underappreciated most of my career by people with plenty of means to do the right thing.I didn't see one dime of a pay raise after this huge 2017 tax cut. 98% was used by major corporations to buy back stock.Now they are getting bailed out again but socialism is a dirty word.
I'm tired of tax cuts for wealthy people.

Right now the wealthiest 54 people in America have as much money as all 327 million of the rest of us. Something needs to change.

[Hawktawk]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... d=msedgdhp
Looks like Im not the only one who does'nt like the current voting system but thats a stark admission from Trumps C#$kholster, This guy is being blackmailed by Trump IMO. What a sleazy swamp creature

[Hawktawk]

https://katu.com/news/local/gallery/pol ... st#photo-5

These guys dont look like left wing rioters.....Just saying. Don't fall for the left is the only bogeyman...Both sides are nuts on the lunatic fringe
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... -democrats
Then there's guys like this. For my friends in the 99.9% of cops are great crowd it just ain't true even if it wins votes. There's lots and lots of these people in law enforcement. Not nearly a majority but more than .1%