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NorthHawk wrote:Here's an interview with a long time GOP operative. In 2011 he predicted that the Republicans would descend into some type of violence.
His perspective is interesting as to how to proceed with impeachment trials as well as other things.

https://www.salon.com/2021/01/16/longti ... -not-work/

Aseahawkfan wrote:Not sure 17 Republicans will turn, but who knows. Impeaching him would be nice just to prevent him from running again, though I think he's done anyway.

Trump will be 78 by 2024. I think he's lost a lot of support with the capitol riot stunt. I think he will be more strongly opposed by Republicans next time around. I think Trump was overlooked the first time. It won't happen again.

I don't think the mainstream Republicans want this clown near the party leadership any longer.

Hawktawk wrote:Rand Paul is nuts. I could care less. He said yesterday anyone who's had a shot or had coronavirus should "throw away their mask" in absolute conflict with the medical community's warnings. His slavish devotion to DJT is nauseating. Back during Watergate the republicans knew they were gonna get hammered but they still were willing to do the right thing and in the end so was Nixon. Those days of county over party are done.

Hawktawk wrote:I really dont care what these republicans do. I had a feeling when Trump started the holdout it could be bad for the party. When Jan 6 happened it definitely got really bad for the party. Our Rep Newhouse, all the people who crossed over have known since Feb of 2017 they were supporting a madman. Not a lot of sympathy.

Hawktawk wrote:Joe Manchin, easily the most moderate centrist Democrat in the Senate has called for removing Cruz and Hawley under the 14th amendment for insurrection. And they have the votes. i'd love this. If the party ever wants people like me to support them again they gotta start here.https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... /ar-BB1cOW

Hawktawk wrote:If the swing vote says “ they should look at it” it’s a polite way of saying let’s do it.

Hawktawk wrote:I wrote Newhouse an email laying out his desertion of America for political expediency but also thanking him for finally doing the right thing. I told him I’d pray for his safety . But it’s way too late when America’s locked down . My hero is Mitt Romney who said within days of the big steal lie “ I cannot imagine anything more Undemocratic or DANGEROUS . He’s facing probably more hatred than any other Republican.

This guy's narrative is pretty ridiculous and not well-supported. The measures after World War 1 were extremely harsh, completely destroyed the Germany economy, and put them in unsustainable debt. Yet he describes the Treaty after World War 1 with Germany as soft? The theory I have heard is that the extreme nature of the World War 1 sanctions on Germany drove them into an economically unsustainable situation that lead to the rise of Hitler and Fascism because Germans felt they were being exploited by their neighbors post-war. Inflation was out of control. Germany was being bankrupted paying back the nations they invaded. It gave rise to anti-Semitism because there were many Jewish bankers and business people who seemed to be profiting off Germany's misery, while Germans suffered creating great hostility towards Jewish people.

RiverDog wrote:Rand Paul is saying that if the Republicans impeach Trump, they'll lose 1/3 of their voters, which could be true.

“Look, I didn’t agree with the [Capitol] fight that happened last week, and I voted against overturning the election, but at the same time, the impeachment is a wrongheaded, partisan notion, [and] if Republicans go along with it, it’ll destroy the party,” Paul said during the interview.

“A third of the Republicans will leave the party,” Paul continued. “This isn’t about, anymore, the Electoral College, this is about the future of the party, and whether you’re going to ostracize and excommunicate President Trump from the party. Well, guess what,? Millions of his fans will leave as well.”

While a majority of Americans believe Trump should be removed from office immediately, just 17 percent of Republicans support expelling Trump from the presidency, according to an Axios–Ipsos poll released on Thursday. Support for Trump among Republicans has fallen since the Capitol riots, however 60 percent believe the party should continue to follow Trump once he leaves office, an ABC News/Washington Post poll found.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... uxbndlbing

This is not unlike the dilemma the Democratic party faced in 1964. At that time, Sen. Richard Russell told LBJ that if they approved the civil rights bill as Johnson and a coalition of Republicans and liberal Democrats were advocating, that the Democrats would lose the south for 50 years. That prediction didn't quite come true as a Democrat, Jimmy Carter, won the presidency 12 years later primarily on the back of a solid Democratic south.

NorthHawk wrote:He's saying they were soft on them politically as he mentions the Beer Hall Putsch where Hitler attempted a coup d'etat. There was no real punishment for that and Germany was left alone to do politically what they wanted.
The economic conditions left them ripe for authoritarianism, but had Hitler and his henchmen been jailed for 20 years or life, history would be quite different.

Your argument that putting them in jail would give them nothing to lose is countered by his observations that any sort of weakness will be exploited by them in their quest for dominance and emboldens them.

He's in a unique position in that he operated in the GOP boiler room for years and knows how they think and operate as well as he's a political historian so I think he should be listened to seriously before dismissing his PoV.

Hawktawk wrote:That’s a profound well written essay . I agree with most of that . I don’t think the democrats need to do much to hurt the republicans right now. Trump is the guy who attacked and destroyed them . Wh 2/3 believe in made up stories and 1/3 don’t what kind of chance do you have at the polls? The party is a mess . As an example I responded to an op Ed on Facebook written by Bill Bryant , former Gubernatorial candidate. He was mostly positive and the subject was the transfer of power . He pointed out all the examples in both parties of people setting aside their differences for the good of America . I responded that it was beautifully written , that it separated him from the majority of his party . I was immediately attacked by several Trumpanzees including a guy who wrote that I should suck his .... it’s amazing how tough they are on social media . I’d say 2/3 of the responses to a moderate Republican high quality candidate were about the same as they were to me. If 2/3 of the party have this attitude they will never win another fair election. This is beyond a political discussion at this point

I read his supporting ideas. They are not in line with history that I know. He's taking a single event like this Beer Hall Putsch and extrapolating that to apply to the GOP? Really? No one saw Hitler coming as much as revisionist history likes to look back and pretend they did. The conditions for the rise of the Third Reich were set up by punishing sanctions both economic and political.

Treaty of Versailles: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Versailles Give it a read, see if it was "easy on them."

Bear Hall Putsch: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beer_Hall_Putsch. This doesn't sound like "easy on them" treatment of Hitler either. He was tried for treason, jailed, and he wrote Mein Kampf in prison. So are you advocating that we jail the leaders of this capitol riot, let them sit in jail dictating the next Mein Kampf? Or are you advocating that we execute these people? Where you at? Did you read on the Beer Hall Putsch before you believed what this guy postulated? A bunch of the people killed at this event were martyred? You want to martyr members of the GOP and capitol rioters so they can build up their resistance further?

This guy is flat out wrong. When you attempt to politically destroy groups of people such as the GOP, you are going to find that it backfires on you more often than not giving them a rallying cry rather than neutering them.

The reason we were able to pacify Japan and Germany post-World War 2 is because we rebuilt both nations and fostered excellent relations with them. The more extreme members of the Nazi Party were pursued, but they had committed insane war crimes on a level not seen historically. I think comparing The GOP to the Nazi Party is ridiculous. They are not there or even close.

We need to get America built up again, prosperous, and busy. That is the way out of this. Not engaging in further divisiveness, punishing groups of people for voting or supporting Trump, and making it seem like the Democratic Party is on some kind of pogrom against Republicans or Trump Supporters. Humans work a certain way. You want to defang them, allow them to prosper, work, and stay busy with the ability to advance and improve themselves. Nations that are prospering, busy, and productive rarely have time to revolt and/or make war unless someone tries to do something stupid to upset the well-being of the nation like excessive taxes, denial of freedom, or the like.

I'm not in agreement with this man at all. I think history clearly shows that when you attack a movement, you elevate it substantially. Same as what fueled Russia for years during the Cold War. Give people an enemy to fight and they will have the motivation to stay the course for much longer than they otherwise would had you not made an enemy and instead focused on the well being of all the people in your nation.

The only idea I agree with is that Trump himself needs to be burned down. But after he is out of office and in an intelligent way that doesn't make him a martyr. But going after the entire G.O.P. would be foolish, unsuccessful, and unnecessarily divisive. Just make Trump pay for his narcissistic lunacy and focus the efforts there. Once Trump is destroyed, those that supported him will change or wither away.

NorthHawk wrote:There's no question the Treaty of Versailles was a punishing document, but he's talking about the political penalties for an attempted coup d'etat. In most of the world, treason is still considered either a Capital Offense meaning up to death but usually a long term prison sentence. Hitler was given 1 year in prison in a private cell with a writing desk and the freedom to have guests. Here he wrote his manifesto and plotted his next political moves while serving his time. That's hardly harsh punishment and should he have been given 20 years, how different would the world be today? Japan was pacified at the end of the war when Hirohito told the country it was over and they had lost. There was a political negotiation, but that was decided before the restructure of that economy was implemented.

The author is right, though and we know that any sign of weakness will be pounced on by the extremists as proof they are right and they will continue to push for more and get more extreme. And he's talking about the extreme members that
are driving today's discord, not about the whole GOP and nobody is comparing them to the German Nazi party. Right now the far right has too much influence, but I read it that his contention is to go after those on the far right aggressively. We haven't done that and they are getting bolder and bolder all the time.

I-5 wrote:Back to the OP, as each day passes, I get the feeling some GOP senators are feeling more free to speak their mind for whatever reasons they may have, and the probably of having enough for a supermajority to convict Trump seems pretty high - I’d put it above 50%. It all starts with McConnell, and if he votes to convict, then I think the dam will break. Said Mitch:

"The mob was fed lies. They were provoked by the President and other powerful people. And they tried to use fear and violence to stop a specific proceeding of the first branch of the federal government which they did not like. But we pressed on."

I think the writing is on the wall, and won’t be surprised if he’s convicted. As for the second part, whether he could be banned from pursuing future office, I think it’s less likely but might not even need to be necessary. I see Trump dumping the GOP by tomorrow anyway. He’s no republican, not by a long shot.

RiverDog wrote:I agree. There is no need to rush the impeachment trial. Time is on the side of the prosecution. They need to wait until they feel that they have enough votes.

There is a legitimate argument in that impeachment will continue to divide the country, but at this point, I think it needs to proceed. The good thing about impeachment is that there is an end. Once there's a verdict, that's it. No appeals. It's not like a criminal prosecution that can go on for years. I also feel that there needs to be a historical marker laid down that counterbalances the insurgency as well as a final slamming of the door on the Trump presidency.

RiverDog wrote:Trump's impeachment trial has been delayed until Feb. 9th, a good move IMO. There is more pressing business for the Senate to attend to, such as the coronavirus response and cabinet appointment confirmations. Now that the Chief Moron has exited, he's yesterday's news. Besides, time is on the side of the prosecution. So if you are of the mindset that wants to see him impeached, it's better to wait a couple of weeks for the momentum to build than rush it through haphazardly and have it fail.

RiverDog wrote:Trump's impeachment trial has been delayed until Feb. 9th, a good move IMO. There is more pressing business for the Senate to attend to, such as the coronavirus response and cabinet appointment confirmations. Now that the Chief Moron has exited, he's yesterday's news. Besides, time is on the side of the prosecution. So if you are of the mindset that wants to see him impeached, it's better to wait a couple of weeks for the momentum to build than rush it through haphazardly and have it fail.

Aseahawkfan wrote:I'm not worried about the impeachment. If this lockdown doesn't end soon, this country is going to explode. Period. Americans can't even take another year of this garbage. There needs to be an end game on this lockdown crap, in every state and all over America. This crap has reached the end of the road point as to what people are going to tolerate as a whole. All it will take is one more explosive incident to push the madness to an even higher level.

Aseahawkfan wrote:Right now Jay Inslee has no plan. He just keeps extending his lockdown order like people can live like this forever. It's getting ridiculous.

RiverDog wrote:My wife and I got our vaccination yesterday, 5 days after Inslee expanded those eligible to include 65-69 year olds where we fall. We were commenting that even though the previous admin. had recommended 65+, had Biden not given the same recommendation, Inslee would not have followed a Republican's advice.

Inslee also told hospitals and clinics to distribute 95% of their vaccines within a week, something I've been clamoring about for weeks, and suddenly, all these clinics are popping up and people are getting poked. Funny how that works.

Those on this side of the state are getting pretty fed up. I'm even beginning to see the logic in at least loosening the grip on some of these business closures.

Aseahawkfan wrote:This whole environment is stifling. You don't know what you can and can't do outside. If your neighbors will report you for walking alone outside with no mask to get some fresh air. What is open and what isn't. On top of worrying the virus itself and if you're one of the unlucky ones with the right combination of factors to end up on a ventilator dying alone. I imagine the flu pandemic of 1918 was worse, but this is pretty bad for modern times. Never seen such a limitation on personal freedoms in my lifetime. I can see why a group of people raised on the idea of liberty would be going stir crazy having the government mandate how to live their lives up to and including when they can go to the doctor or if their business can stay open are going nutso. It feels like we live in a totalitarian state right now no matter how nice Jay Inslee sounds on the TV.

Imagine if the government had this level of control over your life all the time. I'm sitting there imagining what life would be like in a world where the government exerted this level of control over so much of your daily life. I'd lose my fricking mind.

I'm trying to stay somewhat sane by focusing on the science and imagining the other end of this. This kind of government control is exactly what Americans normally would revolt against if not for the public health crisis. It's a terrible, oppressive feeling to live like this. If there is no end in sight sometime soon, not sure how long we can all hold out living like this.

NorthHawk wrote:It's why they are trying to get as many people vaccinated as possible. The return to normalcy is the most important thing as it will springboard the economic recovery as well. It's also why the previous administration was on such a wrong track in not going all in on vaccinating the population. I don't find wearing a mask is such a hardship, though. It's part of our responsibilities as a decent citizen and human being to not infect others (in the event we unknowingly have contracted the virus). It's a small price to pay to possibly protect others including friends and family and others to protect us.

The frustrating part is staying home as much as possible and it will make me more appreciative of being able to wander aimlessly in markets or stores when it's over.

NorthHawk wrote:Some of the problems with requiring a 2nd dose is that if you inoculate 100,000 people in one week, 28 days later you have to inoculate those same 100,000 people plus the extra 100,000 people that haven't yet had any vaccinations. It's almost like a snowball and the coordination could be difficult with some that have difficulty getting to vaccination areas, others forgetting, people losing their notice that they have had their 1st shot, have moved out of State or city, etc. If it's not done right it could turn into a real mess.

The thinking is that in order to end the pandemic quickly to get as many needles into arms as possible and depend on a constant or increasing supply of vaccine for people to get their 2nd shot on time, a proposal I'm in favor of. As far as extending the time between doses, that suggestion has been strongly discouraged by the manufacturers and experts in the field like Fauci.

NorthHawk wrote:That was your comment in another thread and I heard just last night that Pfizer doesn't recommend the 2nd shot past 21 days as they have no data to show if it's effectiveness is limited or nullified. It seems to me that they are concerned that the 94 -95% efficacy might be in doubt and from a company's PoV, if it drops precipitously after that date, it would tarnish their image and the value of that vaccine. Basically we're heading into the unknown by extending the time for the 2nd dose as it hasn't been studied.

RiverDog wrote:Sometimes a totalitarian state is a necessary evil. My friend who is working in Argentina tells me that he's not even allowed to leave his apartment unless he has some sort of permission. And here we are in America complaining about a silly mask or not being able to go into our favorite bar. We've been spoiled by our freedom and independence to such a point that it overrides our common sense.

Hopefully people willingly get this vaccine and we can get back to normal by this summer. I'm as anxious as the next guy to see the lockdowns end. Yesterday after we received our 1st vaccine, my wife was happier than I've seen her in a long time.

Aseahawkfan wrote:I don't agree with this at all. A totalitarian state with no end is a completely totalitarian state. There has to be some end in site. No one should be thinking a totalitarian state is in anyway ok.

Aseahawkfan wrote:I don't want to hear about Argentina. They are not comparable to us.

Aseahawkfan wrote:No one is spoiled by freedom. It should be the expectation of any human to be free. If this continues too long, I will certainly join a revolt against this at some point. I am not like you. I would never tolerate a real totalitarian state if I believed this what was the government was attempting to do. I would rather risk death from the virus than accept this environment indefinitely. I would be willing to fight against the government to end it.

Aseahawkfan wrote:So it has to end at some point or more and more people will reach their point of not tolerating any longer. People who casually think they can do this indefinitely are ridiculous. This is a terrible life.

RiverDog wrote:Those folks that stormed the Capitol were sure spoiled by their freedom. The problem is that too people in this country assume that freedom means free in every sense of the word, which is why we're having such a problem getting people to wear masks. Your freedom does not include the freedom to make someone else sick.

I am beginning to lean that way myself. I don't think our state government is working hard enough to help some of these businesses open back up. There's data to suggest that most of the infections are occurring in private gatherings, so it would make sense to allow people to gather in some public locations where they can be made to wear masks and socially distance. At least you have some degree of control over their behavior whereas in private homes you don't.

Aseahawkfan wrote:Those people were not spoiled by their freedom in my opinion anymore than the BLM protesters.

Aseahawkfan wrote:They were driven to an action by a lying president into believing an election had been stolen. There's way too many reasons to discuss as to why so many Americans would allow themselves to be pushed in such a direction. These people truly believed they had to act to prevent what they considered a massive act of election fraud by the Democrats. I believe there is real hatred for the Democrats on the right. I don't know if it will get any better considering any trust between these two sides seems pretty much gone and it's starting to get more divisive.

I am beginning to lean that way myself. I don't think our state government is working hard enough to help some of these businesses open back up. There's data to suggest that most of the infections are occurring in private gatherings, so it would make sense to allow people to gather in some public locations where they can be made to wear masks and socially distance. At least you have some degree of control over their behavior whereas in private homes you don't.

Aseahawkfan wrote:I hope the vaccine works and we can get some normalcy. I am reading on Texas and Florida. Both states have kept more open and made more sensible decisions and have a death rate about the same as California and New York.

Even Andrew Cuomo is starting to realize his city may not ever be open again if they don't reopen soon. I know Seattle is a ghost town. Specialties gone. So many restaurants near me gone or barely hanging on. Buildings closed. Big tech and companies moving their operations out of the city with no interest in returning. I think cities will be more decimated than many Americans realize even after we re-open.

RiverDog wrote:IMO both groups were. What other country would have allowed what happened in those two situations to happen? What other industrialized country would have it even have taken place?

All true. But I still say that they were spoiled in the sense that we enjoy freedoms that no other country in the world enjoys, and it was due to those freedoms that allowed both of those groups to engage in the activities that they did.

The vaccine works. So long as we can get enough people to take it, we'll defeat the pandemic and end the shutdowns. We still have several tough months ahead, but once we get other vaccines on the market and fill the pipeline with product, we'll get back to normal. Neither the stock market or housing market has fallen, a strong indication that the economy will bounce back.

RiverDog wrote:Back to the OP.

The Democrats announced that rather than the Chief Justice of SCOTUS, that fellow Dem Senator Patrick Leahy will preside over Trump's impeachment trial.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/25/us/p ... a099143f1e

This is a really bad move. Although the judge in an impeachment trial is mostly ceremonial, the graphics are horrible. How could any politician receive a fair trial if it is officiated by political opponent from the opposite party?

There's been a lot of push back amongst Republicans, and I am getting the sense that this impeachment trial is slipping away, that they won't get near enough votes to convict, and this latest move seems certain to doom any chance they might have had.

Aseahawkfan wrote:So Trump might come back in 2024? With the coronavirus clear, an 82 year old Biden to go against, and the ability to go to work at his rallies? I hope Trump starts to slow down. I don't know how a 74 year old has that much energy. He must take TRT or something. If they don't impeach this guy, he's gonna be attacking Biden, riling up his base, and going after Biden like crazy in preparation for another run. Trump is highly vindictive, doesn't like to give up, and will take a fight to the next level if he is able to. If they can't impeach Trump, he's going to feel empowered. He'll use these other lawsuits against him to fuel the idea the Democrats are out to get him and they are. He'll start hammering on the Democrats from now until 2024. Sheesh. A failure to impeach could bring this monster back.

Aseahawkfan wrote:Don't feed me any worthless polls any more RD. Trump has clearly proven the polls don't mean jack crap when it comes voting time. Popularity polls are useless pablum for people to take false comfort in. Trump has a huge following willing to go strong to help him. If he doesn't have the coronavirus to contend with, he's even more dangerous at his rallies.

Now you're telling me impeachment is unlikely. They better get some goods on him with the lawsuits or the Trump monster may be back in 2024.