The Trump Legacy

[c_hawkbob]

I agree with North. We have seriously got to quit measuring the health of the economy by how the rich are doing. The markets are at most maybe a third of the equation. It's like measuring employment by how many people have jobs when at the bottom of the scale people are working 2 or 3 jobs to maintain one functional wage and still not getting any benefits. These measurements are illusions intended to keep us feeling good enough about the status quo that they can keep migrating all the wealth of the country to the top.

[RiverDog]

I agree with North. We have seriously got to quit measuring the health of the economy by how the rich are doing. The markets are at most maybe a third of the equation. It's like measuring employment by how many people have jobs when at the bottom of the scale people are working 2 or 3 jobs to maintain one functional wage and still not getting any benefits. These measurements are illusions intended to keep us feeling good enough about the status quo that they can keep migrating all the wealth of the country to the top.

So what's your measure of the health of the economy?

[c_hawkbob]

Strong middle class, union memberships, inner city employment statistics including benefits, small business viability, overall wealth distribution. Not saying these things only, but they deserve much more attention than just the markets and GDP.

[I-5]

Agree with Bob. Can’t measure the economy health in any useful way unless the middle class and those trying to get to the middle class are able to survive.

[NorthHawk]

The middle class has been hollowed out to a large degree over the last 40 years. That means there are some at the top, a few in the middle, and a lot at the bottom hoping for a chance to get a better life.

[RiverDog]

Strong middle class, union memberships, inner city employment statistics including benefits, small business viability, overall wealth distribution. Not saying these things only, but they deserve much more attention than just the markets and GDP.

Well, then excuse me all to hell for using such obviously inadequete terms such as GDP and unemployment to measure economic health.

So can you tell me how the economy has fared according to your criteria? Is it better or worse since the 2nd quarter of 2020?

[c_hawkbob]

Oh my, looks as though I've struck a nerve!

First, by all means you're excused. Second, I believe you know as well as I do that "my" criteria are a bit more difficult to gather, and even measure in the short term, than that. It's not like following the daily stock report for inner city jobs with benefits. There's nothing to bet on in those kinds of statistics. And third, relax, I didn't mean to personally insult you.

[Aseahawkfan]

By that logic, you should be in favor of Biden’s Covid relief plan...getting the money out of the gov’t’s hands and into average americans’ hands, especially households with less than $150k annual income. Right?

The 1.9 trillion plan? Yes. I am in favor of it. I'm glad they capped the 1400 dollar checks at 80000 too. I don't get a check and shouldn't get a check. I'm doing absolutely fine right now.

The government implemented the lockdowns and destroyed any business not able to operate remotely, they should be stepping in big to pick up the slack and sustain those people displaced from jobs and businesses hurt by their measures.

The Republicans are being extremely dumb not being generous with those displaced by this terrible crisis. I would be lending a huge helping hand to the aviation industry, restaurants, hospitality, and the like. I strongly support pushing more money to those in need.

The economy is not healthy right now. The extent of the damage is currently unknown and won't be knowable until we re-open and the stimulus is turned off with money re-allocated to see what returns and what does not.

The complexity of how this event has reshaped our economy and the damage are wild cards. That is why The Fed keeps pushing money in and the government as well. They know any of these positive characteristics are false signals of economic health, when we have pockets of devastation that haven't yet been realized like mortgage and rent deferrals, debt taken out to sustain ailing businesses, a 10% or so unemployment rate, and the like. Gotta feel that out before we see where to go next.

On a side note, I've always been of the mind that tax cuts to the middle class would be more effective than corporate tax cuts. I wish they would try it for once. Cut middle classes taxes by about 3% across the board and boost taxes on wealth and business by about 3%, see what happens. The middle class drives consumption the most in the GDP equation. Putting more money in middle class hands will hugely boost the economy in my opinion.

[Aseahawkfan]

The economy is fine. GDP rose by over 4% and unemployment dropped sharply last quarter, so the economy doesn't need the stimulus, at least not now.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets ... uxbndlbing

My wife and I are both retired. Filing jointly our AGI was around $75K. We're empty nesters, our house is paid off, and we have no other debts, so we live quite well on that income. We also have a hefty amount saved up in our IRA's, of which only our taxable withdrawals count against the stimulus. The government giving us another $2800 isn't going to cause us to spend anymore money than we otherwise would have. I don't know how typical our situation is, but it's a complete waste of taxpayer money to give us a stimulus.

I understand that there are people out there that are still suffering due to the pandemic and I am not opposed to giving them some assistance. But the economy doesn't need it and at least from my point of view, it is very poorly targeted. I was for the first stimulus last spring as the country was in much worse shape, both in terms of the economy and unemployment, and I could understand pushing through a poorly targeted stimulus as crafting the perfect piece of legislation would have taken many months and there were people out there suffering, so it's understandable that some undeserving people received a payment. But the situation is much different now than it was in the 2nd quarter of 2020.

Growing by 4% when you're coming back from a deficit like we had is not a healthy economy. You are really clueless about the level of economic damage that still exists. We're not fine. Once the stimulus is pulled, you'll find out just how not fine we are. It's why the market keeps dropping hard when the stimulus is pulled. Smart investors know that when the stimulus stops and The Fed stops printing money, all the economic damage they are delaying happens to the economy.

No one has summarised all the economic damage, but people like Yellen and Jerome Powell aren't doing what they are doing and telling the government to keep the stimulus coming because things are ok.

1. We're still 10 million jobs away from where we were pre-pandemic. https://www.epi.org/press/the-u-s-labor-market-remains-9-9-million-jobs-below-pre-pandemic-levels/

2. Certain industries are devastated. Hospitality, aviation being the hardest hit.

3. Rent and mortgage deferrals are going to come due. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/02/16/fact-sheet-biden-administration-announces-extension-of-covid-19-forbearance-and-foreclosure-protections-for-homeowners/ Part of the reason for the housing shortage is that people have been deferring mortgages and remaining in their houses, while others will jobs have been looking which has created a housing shortage. Once these eviction moratoriums are lifted, then we'll see if we see a sudden influx of homes on the market from evictions which will boost supply.

4. Government shortfalls are immense as well. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/09/24/how-much-is-covid-19-hurting-state-and-local-revenues/ Fortunately, economic activity in the stock market has helped offset some of the other losses, but not completely.

We are not out of trouble yet. People like Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell remain highly concerned because they are seeing the real numbers and the real economic damage the have been delaying for a year. They are both wondering what's going to happen when the stimulus stops?

I don't know where you're getting this pie in the sky view of the U.S. economy, but we ain't out of the deep water yet. We got a ways to go.

[I-5]

On a side note, I've always been of the mind that tax cuts to the middle class would be more effective than corporate tax cuts. I wish they would try it for once. Cut middle classes taxes by about 3% across the board and boost taxes on wealth and business by about 3%, see what happens. The middle class drives consumption the most in the GDP equation. Putting more money in middle class hands will hugely boost the economy in my opinion.

Asf, I could not agree more.

[RiverDog]

Oh my, looks as though I've struck a nerve!

First, by all means you're excused. Second, I believe you know as well as I do that "my" criteria are a bit more difficult to gather, and even measure in the short term, than that. It's not like following the daily stock report for inner city jobs with benefits. There's nothing to bet on in those kinds of statistics. And third, relax, I didn't mean to personally insult you.

You didn't strike a nerve. I was just surprised that you would object to my using such common terms, ones that every economist in the country uses to measure economic health. And no, I didn't take anything personal.

As you noted, most of the criteria you're using cannot be accurately and periodically measured. I'm also not convinced that all are strictly economic in nature or if they aren't intertwined with social issues like education. Unemployment claims and GDP are both much more precise and can be tracked over a course of decades. One of the problems with the 'real' unemployment that North Hawk mentioned is that it can only be estimated and is not tracked over fixed periods of time. The reported unemployment uses hard data and is mathematically correct.

And lastly, you didn't answer my question. According to your measures, how is the economy doing? Is it better or worse now than it was in the 2nd quarter of 2020? After all, that's my basis for my objection to this current stimulus plan, that at least as it applies to the health of the overall economy, that it is not necessary.

[c_hawkbob]

I didn't 'object' to a single thing. Nothing I said was pointed in any way at you or what you had written. I offered my opinion and you asked me to get more specific so I did, in my own words without reference or even specific mindfulness of anything you'd said. It may come as a surprise but I don't pore over every word you guys say when you're talking economics, most of it makes my eyes glaze over and roll up in the back of my head... I'd have to spend half my time googling "what did he just say?" to actually follow along, and you write volumes on it!

And stop asking a question I've told you (and you've agreed) cannot be answered. It's gonna take a lot longer than a couple months to repair this economy. It's been rigged to take from the middle and lower classes to enrich corporations since the 80's. Reversing Trump's trillion dollar tax cuts for the rich will be a good start, but it's gonna take more than that.

[RiverDog]

I didn't 'object' to a single thing. Nothing I said was pointed in any way at you or what you had written. I offered my opinion and you asked me to get more specific so I did, in my own words without reference or even specific mindfulness of anything you'd said. It may come as a surprise but I don't pore over every word you guys say when you're talking economics, most of it makes my eyes glaze over and roll up in the back of my head... I'd have to spend half my time googling "what did he just say?" to actually follow along, and you write volumes on it!

And stop asking a question I've told you (and you've agreed) cannot be answered. It's gonna take a lot longer than a couple months to repair this economy. It's been rigged to take from the middle and lower classes to enrich corporations since the 80's. Reversing Trump's trillion dollar tax cuts for the rich will be a good start, but it's gonna take more than that.

When you said " We have seriously got to quit measuring the health of the economy by how the rich are doing. The markets are at most maybe a third of the equation. it sure sounded to me like you were objecting to the terms I was using, otherwise I don't see the need for the word "seriously". I wasn't clear where you were getting the other 2/3's of your equation measuring economic health, which is why I was pressing you. IMO unemployment rates and to a lesser degree the GDP are not measures of how the rich are doing. And not once did I mention the word "markets". That was introduced into the discussion by North Hawk, not by me. But be that as it may.

Although the discussion was about the stimulus, I agree with you regarding reversing at least part of the Trump tax cuts. I never saw the need for them in the first place. I regard tax cuts in much the same way that I view a stimulus payment, that it is a tool to help revitalize the economy as it puts money back in the hands of consumers. We were doing just fine without a tax cut. We can't just keep printing money and running up the deficit, and the tax cuts contributed to that.

[Hawktawk]

Sorry, both of these parties look crazy to me. I want something new soon. I'll never vote for these two parties as they are now. They are bad for America. They don't seem to have any idea of what American values are. The Democrats are more interested in turning us into Europe than being America. I don't want to be Europe. I would move there If I wanted America to be Europe.

And Trump is stupid, crazy, and vulgar. I want nothing more to do with the guy. He shouldn't be near the White House. He's a selfish, narcissistic idiot who is out of touch with reality to the point he himself believes the election was taken from him. No one who has had that type of psychotic break from reality should be president.

It's a bad time to be an American. I feel bad for this younger generation who has to grow up in this garbage time where mainly the technology is good, but the social environment is nutty.

I agree 100% with your take on the parties. But I said Biden Harris look normal "in comparison". Liberalism is a belief system of cradle to grave nanny state. let's say they care too much about people who nobody else cares about. Socialism is a political and economic system embraced in parts of the world including way more here than those who decry socialism want to admit. My point is these are political positions however extreme and the left would say the right has equally draconian policies favoring wealthy and balancing the books on the backs of the poor, ignoring the environment and the needs of the downtrodden. Hillary Im sure felt the same way.

The biggest difference is that Hillary after seeing Michigan called by 10 K votes she conceded graciously at 1 AM night of election. The former Cheeto of course started sowing the seeds of conspiracy months before the election and right up to a riot and even Jan 20 it was unsure he would leave. As you recall it was he and my pillow guy in the oval office talking about martial law. Then he goes to Cpac and tells the same lies about a stolen election.

Afterwards McConnell who said famously " a mob was fed lies by the president" And again" this isn't a particularly close election"(2 months late on that one) was asked if he would support Trump if he were the party's nominee in 24 and he smiled and said "of course". At least Bill Cassidy had the nuts to say "he wont be the nominee". Its incredible to me that anyone would want 4 more years of orange seditionist especially with the potentially bright stars in the mainstream of the party.

I hate both these parties Asea but there is a discernable difference between the parties right now in terms of the damage they can do to america in the ways that matter most. When 50 million dont trust the election strictly due to a lie from a cult figure we have a big problem.

[RiverDog]

I agree 100% with your take on the parties. But I said Biden Harris look normal "in comparison". Liberalism is a belief system of cradle to grave nanny state. let's say they care too much about people who nobody else cares about. Socialism is a political and economic system embraced in parts of the world including way more here than those who decry socialism want to admit. My point is these are political positions however extreme and the left would say the right has equally draconian policies favoring wealthy and balancing the books on the backs of the poor, ignoring the environment and the needs of the downtrodden. Hillary Im sure felt the same way.

The biggest difference is that Hillary after seeing Michigan called by 10 K votes she conceded graciously at 1 AM night of election. The former Cheeto of course started sowing the seeds of conspiracy months before the election and right up to a riot and even Jan 20 it was unsure he would leave. As you recall it was he and my pillow guy in the oval office talking about martial law. Then he goes to Cpac and tells the same lies about a stolen election.

Afterwards McConnell who said famously " a mob was fed lies by the president" And again" this isn't a particularly close election"(2 months late on that one) was asked if he would support Trump if he were the party's nominee in 24 and he smiled and said "of course". At least Bill Cassidy had the nuts to say "he wont be the nominee". Its incredible to me that anyone would want 4 more years of orange seditionist especially with the potentially bright stars in the mainstream of the party.

I hate both these parties Asea but there is a discernable difference between the parties right now in terms of the damage they can do to america in the ways that matter most. When 50 million dont trust the election strictly due to a lie from a cult figure we have a big problem.

Agreed about Biden and Harris. They are more normal in comparison to DJT. I am relatively pleased with them at this point.

Both extremes are dangerous, and in my opinion, they are feeding off each other. I am convinced that at least part of the reason for the post election violence was in response to the months long violence of this summer. There were times when I found myself in an argument with those on the far right about the Capitol riot their usual response was "what about the BLM riots?" "Two wrongs don't make a right" was my response.

It's been a crazy, crazy year, and I can only hope that things return to somewhat of a normal once this pandemic is over.

[Hawktawk]

I have a bit different response to those who attempt to justify Jan 6 with Antifa and BLM protests . Tucker Carlson had the gall to call QAanon supporters “ confused but they aren’t burning down Burger King”. The only similarity is rioting . One is protesting the oppression of blacks and the prescence of fascism . One could at least say they have a point although nobody including Biden or Harris support their methods . Stopping the counting of votes to elect the man who drubbed you by inciting a riot after 2.5 months of the most disgraceful political arson in history is in its own category . It wasn’t antifa

[Aseahawkfan]

I agree 100% with your take on the parties. But I said Biden Harris look normal "in comparison". Liberalism is a belief system of cradle to grave nanny state. let's say they care too much about people who nobody else cares about. Socialism is a political and economic system embraced in parts of the world including way more here than those who decry socialism want to admit. My point is these are political positions however extreme and the left would say the right has equally draconian policies favoring wealthy and balancing the books on the backs of the poor, ignoring the environment and the needs of the downtrodden. Hillary Im sure felt the same way.

The biggest difference is that Hillary after seeing Michigan called by 10 K votes she conceded graciously at 1 AM night of election. The former Cheeto of course started sowing the seeds of conspiracy months before the election and right up to a riot and even Jan 20 it was unsure he would leave. As you recall it was he and my pillow guy in the oval office talking about martial law. Then he goes to Cpac and tells the same lies about a stolen election.

Afterwards McConnell who said famously " a mob was fed lies by the president" And again" this isn't a particularly close election"(2 months late on that one) was asked if he would support Trump if he were the party's nominee in 24 and he smiled and said "of course". At least Bill Cassidy had the nuts to say "he wont be the nominee". Its incredible to me that anyone would want 4 more years of orange seditionist especially with the potentially bright stars in the mainstream of the party.

I hate both these parties Asea but there is a discernable difference between the parties right now in terms of the damage they can do to america in the ways that matter most. When 50 million dont trust the election strictly due to a lie from a cult figure we have a big problem.

Glad you see this. We are all a blend of socialism and capitalism, we almost always have been. Anyone reading history books or even The Bible or Quran knows merchants have been around for time immemorial and are never going away. People who know how to own and manage resources for profit and economic growth will always be something humanity needs. At the same time any system that doesn't allow the majority to prosper and improve their lives thinking that telling people "survival of the fittest, buddy. make better decisions" will somehow work is pretty clueless. If the system is driving too much prosperity to too small a group, you're going to have problems. Socialism is economically an idea that incorporates taking care of the community. We've always had this element within societies whether through churches, community centers, food banks, or government initiating programs to improve community prosperity. The main thing is to avoid the extremes of idiots who think in absolutes like Marxists on the left and capitalism works for everything all the time on the right.

Markets and societies need to adjust to changing economic circumstances. Therein lies the debates. I'm strongly supportive of a medical system that removes employer healthcare and moves to a single-payer system where the consumer can purchase quality health insurance at an affordable price separated from the job. I don't want this for the Democrat reasons of "we have the help the poor" reasoning. There are plenty of programs for the poor. I'm tired as a worker of having to find a job immediately just to maintain healthcare because it isn't affordable unless provided by an employer. That is wrong to me. I manage my money well enough where I could take long periods of time off if I felt like it, but affordable healthcare is always an issue. If we had a nice socialized system or service like Canada or England, it would be very easy for people to take time off to do other things. Start a business, take care of a relative, have a baby, start a different career. It would lead to greater economic freedom and mobility for people as it has done in various markets where socialized or single-payer, employer decoupled medicine exists. People are resistant to it because of the tax implications on companies and wealthier people, but places like Canada, Germany, and Sweden have such services while still having robust capitalism that allows for plenty of wealth building and allows working folk more freedom than being constantly forced to work for affordable healthcare.

We need to adjust our economy where working folk have more freedom and flexibility to live well because it is absolutely clear not everyone or even a majority is going to be in the 1%. You don't need a nanny state providing subsistence benefits to balance things. You need a system that allows the worker to benefit from the prosperity they help generate within the economy with increased freedom, flexibility, and less of their money concentrated into medical and property maintenance.

[Aseahawkfan]

I have a bit different response to those who attempt to justify Jan 6 with Antifa and BLM protests . Tucker Carlson had the gall to call QAanon supporters “ confused but they aren’t burning down Burger King”. The only similarity is rioting . One is protesting the oppression of blacks and the prescence of fascism . One could at least say they have a point although nobody including Biden or Harris support their methods . Stopping the counting of votes to elect the man who drubbed you by inciting a riot after 2.5 months of the most disgraceful political arson in history is in its own category . It wasn’t antifa

I don't even know who antifa are. Seems likes a name applied to a large group of people with varying interests who seem to cause trouble. They don't seem to have any central leadership or known organizational standards. Just seems like a name tossed out any time a left-leaning protest goes off the rails.

It's like white supremacy on the right. They pretty much attach it to any right wing group that causes trouble even if it has nothing to do with their goals and their members aren't involved in any type of racial supremacy.

I guess it is just an easy way to put groups in boxes and vilify them.

[Hawktawk]

I don't even know who antifa are. Seems likes a name applied to a large group of people with varying interests who seem to cause trouble. They don't seem to have any central leadership or known organizational standards. Just seems like a name tossed out any time a left-leaning protest goes off the rails.

It's like white supremacy on the right. They pretty much attach it to any right wing group that causes trouble even if it has nothing to do with their goals and their members aren't involved in any type of racial supremacy.

I guess it is just an easy way to put groups in boxes and vilify them.

Antifa is by their own definition anti fascist. They are largely whites . However in my opinion trying to make your point violently is fascism in itself . They all suck. If proud boys and antifa beat each other to death it would be a good thing.