Labor Shortage

[RiverDog]

I just got through reading an article in my local newspaper. Apparently there are a number of restaurants that want to open but they can't find enough waiters and cooks. Some have offered a $500 sign up bonus but to no avail.

The other day, I had a text chat with my former boss. When I told him that there were plans for a new milk dehydration plant in close proximity to his facility that will employ around 1K workers, he lamented that "Jezus, that's going to make crewing even more difficult!". Every day on my Facebook page, my employer has an announcement of a hiring event.

Last week, I had a personal check that a friend of me had written that I wanted to deposit at my bank. When I arrived, the drive up window was closed and the bank lobby had about 8-10 people in line waiting to make deposit with just one teller on duty. A person came by with a tablet computer and took my deposit. When I asked him why the shortage, he said that most of his employees had either called in sick or were off due to "the covid thing", which I took to mean that they were not returning off unemployment. Currently in this state, you don't even have to be actively seeking work to remain on unemployment insurance.

A liberal fried of mine feels that the solution to our labor problems is simple: Just raise the minimum wage. But Washington state already has the highest minimum wage of any state in the nation yet everywhere I drive, I'm seeing help wanted signs, more so than I've ever seen in my life.

Nation wide, one of the major reasons for the high gas prices is that there aren't enough truck drivers to transport the gas from the refineries to distributors. I just saw an item on my morning TV news that Uber and Lyft are having major problems hiring drivers.

Some of the problems are related to what IMO was a very unwise $300/week supplement to unemployment insurance. But job openings outnumbered the total of unemployed by a large amount, to the tune of several hundred thousand.

So what's your solution? Simply raising wages isn't going to fix a shortage. Raising the price on something forces people to conserve, but how do you conserve on labor besides cutting back on hours or services?

[c_hawkbob]

So what's your solution? Simply raising wages isn't going to fix a shortage. Raising the price on something forces people to conserve, but how do you conserve on labor besides cutting back on hours or services?

Well at least you're up front about it; you only want to hear answers you agree with.

Higher wages and benefits will absolutely solve thr problem. That's why lower paying places worry over higher paying businesses moving into the area.

At the corporate level decisions have to be made to devote more to the lower end of the pay scale. It's time for that particular pendulum to swing back the other direction, the current model is unsustainable.

[RiverDog]

So what's your solution? Simply raising wages isn't going to fix a shortage. Raising the price on something forces people to conserve, but how do you conserve on labor besides cutting back on hours or services?

Well at least you're up front about it; you only want to hear answers you agree with.

Higher wages and benefits will absolutely solve thr problem. That's why lower paying places worry over higher paying businesses moving into the area.

At the corporate level decisions have to be made to devote more to the lower end of the pay scale. It's time for that particular pendulum to swing back the other direction, the current model is unsustainable.

Higher wages is not the answer. All that's going to do is drive up prices and re-ignite inflation. Price is a reaction to changes in supply and demand.

With other commodities, say like gasoline, increasing the price (the equivalent to raising wages) has the effect of encouraging more production, which increases supply and drives the price back down. It also has the effect of making other, more expensive modes, such as EV's, more economically viable. But that won't work with labor. If there is a shortage of labor, all raising wages does...which, btw, has already been occurring as average wages have gone up over the past year...is to make things more expensive.

The other part of the equation is that with the changing demographics, with birth rates and school enrollment in decline, the continuing retirement of the baby boomer generation, and increases in life expectancy, is that the worker to retire ratio will continue to get worse.

There are more job openings than there are unemployed. The only two answers are to increase supply, ie more workers...get the homeless jobs, increase the retirement age, hire more children, etc...or decrease demand, ie more robotics, economic contraction, etc.

My solution is to admit more immigrants.

[NorthHawk]

I think there are many facets to a fix and not a single one will solve it.
Part of it is the Covid subsidy, part is low wages, part is immigration needs, and I'm sure there are other factors.
There have also been a lot of people who have been affected by Covid that aren't ready physically to return to work and
others who have lost their lives. This has caused some people to re-evaluate their lives and what they want to do. Set
their priorities might be a description. Whatever the solution is, it might be a while before it settles into a consistent
level where we can see better what is really needed and that's going to be hard on brick and mortar businesses.

[Aseahawkfan]

I doubt it is any single reason. There's a lot of going on with the re-opening. I imagine jobs will be filled as demand and supply meet. Right now people are probably able to snap up jobs that pay better, so those are going first.

My employer is having trouble finding people as well even paying well above minimum wage and paying as much or more than the COVID unemployment.

The reality is that we just re-opened. It's going to take some time for all this to get figured out. Just as the inflation is likely transitory, though maybe not given all the money circulating.

Suffice it to say Supply-Demand is going to be out of whack for a bit as things normalize. The amount of money circulating is immense. We'll have to see how well cities recover and how many businesses bring workers back to their headquarters in the city.

Many things are still up in the air. I don't expect a return to normal supply-demand and the like for 6 months to a year.

There is just so much to sort out after a year plus of lockdown. I wouldn't buy into any singular reason for labor or inflation and the like when there are a multitude of factors to consider. It's why I'm not going in heavy on stocks even with the market rising. I feel like there's going to be some nasty surprise in the economy coming from all the COVID measures that isn't being accounted for.

[RiverDog]

I doubt it is any single reason. There's a lot of going on with the re-opening. I imagine jobs will be filled as demand and supply meet. Right now people are probably able to snap up jobs that pay better, so those are going first.

My employer is having trouble finding people as well even paying well above minimum wage and paying as much or more than the COVID unemployment.

The reality is that we just re-opened. It's going to take some time for all this to get figured out. Just as the inflation is likely transitory, though maybe not given all the money circulating.

Suffice it to say Supply-Demand is going to be out of whack for a bit as things normalize. The amount of money circulating is immense. We'll have to see how well cities recover and how many businesses bring workers back to their headquarters in the city.

Many things are still up in the air. I don't expect a return to normal supply-demand and the like for 6 months to a year.

There is just so much to sort out after a year plus of lockdown. I wouldn't buy into any singular reason for labor or inflation and the like when there are a multitude of factors to consider. It's why I'm not going in heavy on stocks even with the market rising. I feel like there's going to be some nasty surprise in the economy coming from all the COVID measures that isn't being accounted for.

I agree that there are multiple reasons for this particular labor shortage. It is more severe as a lot of people, like restaurant workers, took other jobs, left town, etc, and it will take some time for things to re-balance. But as I stated, we had a labor shortage BEFORE the pandemic, with several hundred thousand more job openings than unemployed. And not just jobs at the lower end of the wage scale. There were lots of good paying jobs, like truck drivers, construction workers, and electricians, that were having difficulty hiring new employees.

My point is that a simple raising of wages isn't going to fix the labor supply issue. All we will be doing is forcing employers to compete with each other for a fixed number of employees, robbing Peter to pay Paul, with no one to back fill positions that are vacated. Unless we somehow supplement the labor pool, either with those that are long term unemployed, encourage people to work longer before retiring, allow teenagers to do more work, etc, we will have to address the issue, or rather, the issue will address itself, on the demand side of the equation.

Although I haven't researched it lately, I saw a couple years ago, prior to the pandemic, where the average age of a licensed electrician in the United States was 56 years old. It doesn't take a brain surgeon to look at the demographical data and see the trend where those leaving the work force aren't being replaced by an equivalent number entering the labor pool.

[Aseahawkfan]

I agree that there are multiple reasons for this particular labor shortage. It is more severe as a lot of people, like restaurant workers, took other jobs, left town, etc, and it will take some time for things to re-balance. But as I stated, we had a labor shortage BEFORE the pandemic, with several hundred thousand more job openings than unemployed. And not just jobs at the lower end of the wage scale. There were lots of good paying jobs, like truck drivers, construction workers, and electricians, that were having difficulty hiring new employees.

My point is that a simple raising of wages isn't going to fix the labor supply issue. All we will be doing is forcing employers to compete with each other for a fixed number of employees, robbing Peter to pay Paul, with no one to back fill positions that are vacated. Unless we somehow supplement the labor pool, either with those that are long term unemployed, encourage people to work longer before retiring, allow teenagers to do more work, etc, we will have to address the issue, or rather, the issue will address itself, on the demand side of the equation.

Although I haven't researched it lately, I saw a couple years ago, prior to the pandemic, where the average age of a licensed electrician in the United States was 56 years old. It doesn't take a brain surgeon to look at the demographical data and see the trend where those leaving the work force aren't being replaced by an equivalent number entering the labor pool.

I disagree that raising wages isn't a major part of the issue. Wages have been stagnant for years compared to the standard of living. I think even welfare is often more desirable than working at some restaurant to barely get by. There is a steep divide between jobs that pay a living wage and those that don't creating a massive underclass and a divide in income that is leading to this wealth inequality which I don't even consider caused by billionaires and millionaires competing with working class, but more with high paid tech workers competing with average to low paid working class people.

It isn't millionaires and billionaires living in the suburbs and country paying 600,000 for a house that used to cost half that much. It's high paid tech workers and finance workers making big money driving restaurant workers and working class people out of the housing market. The wage gap within the middle class is becoming more extreme than it was. It used to be you could work some middling position and make good money and live a good life. But now you have these tech workers who make in that 100k plus range easily competing in the same market as minimum mage restaurant workers with a price stratification that is pretty insane.

If your option is some 15 an hour job like people are touting as some kind of improvement which is 31200 a year pre-tax and your competing for houses and services with people making 80 to 100k a year or more in tech or some higher value industry, then how does that work?

I definitely think wage stagnation is the problem, not a shortage of people. We have a lot of people, 330 million plus. What we don't have is jobs that pay enough to keep people in them very long and an environment that doesn't cater very well to lower income people.

Imagine your a minimum wage worker who spends all they have to buy a 300,000 crap condo and then you gotta pay 6000 a year in property tax on top of your mortgage. 20% of your pre-tax income is going to your property tax on a yearly basis. Then you gotta pay all the other fees associated with property ownership and homeowner dues and the like. Not going to do well. That 15 an hour is the current boost to the minimum wage.

We have a lot of issues with the current economy. Even rent prices are rising substantially so that even people who I work with who are paid well above minimum wage on average aren't able to afford to live alone.

So I have to heavily disagree with. Wages rising would help immensely with the labor shortage. When your options are working 40 hours to barely survive and getting welfare to barely survive, your going to take the welfare or some other option like Uber. That's another thing I noticed with my employees is they will work and do Uber to make money or some similar part time job.

All that being said it will always come down to how much am I earning and what I am doing to to earn it. Unions have made it so electricians have good wages, but you have to jump through a lot of hoops to make that good money as an electrician full time. Non-union electrician jobs don't make near as much as union.

There's lots of little problems in our economy like this that lead to labor shortages. People don't want to spend 10 years plus to get union seniority to make a decent full time wage when they can go into tech and make more money. But it's all going to come down to money, wages, and ease of obtaining that money that will drive what people want to do for money.

As an aside, remember some of the following?

Union grocery jobs used to pay a good living wage and considered a decent job, but now they're on the low end of the wage scale for hard work.

Union butchers used to make a good living wage. My aunt used to work as a union butcher at a grocery store making a good wage. That wage hasn't kept up.

My uncle used to work as a machinist. He's making good money still, but his job has become heavily automated where he spends much of his time watching machines. Automation is definitely driving down wages as well.


No matter how you cut it, it comes down to wages and what companies do to cut them or limit their growth. You remember when MIcrosoft was sued because they employed so many part time contract workers so they didn't have to pay benefits? What are you going to do when companies view labor as something to manipulate to keep costs as low as possible, yet labor needs to make a decent living wage to build wealth and lead a good life? You're going to have a problem there.

[RiverDog]

I disagree that raising wages isn't a major part of the issue. Wages have been stagnant for years compared to the standard of living. I think even welfare is often more desirable than working at some restaurant to barely get by. There is a steep divide between jobs that pay a living wage and those that don't creating a massive underclass and a divide in income that is leading to this wealth inequality which I don't even consider caused by billionaires and millionaires competing with working class, but more with high paid tech workers competing with average to low paid working class people.

It isn't millionaires and billionaires living in the suburbs and country paying 600,000 for a house that used to cost half that much. It's high paid tech workers and finance workers making big money driving restaurant workers and working class people out of the housing market. The wage gap within the middle class is becoming more extreme than it was. It used to be you could work some middling position and make good money and live a good life. But now you have these tech workers who make in that 100k plus range easily competing in the same market as minimum mage restaurant workers with a price stratification that is pretty insane.

You're talking about a different, unrelated problem. Resolving an income inequity does not address a labor shortage. Unless there is a large pool of long term unemployed that a raising of wages might motivate to enter the work force, simply raising wages doesn't add workers to the work force. Although I don't necessarily disagree that income inequity is a problem that should be addressed, the issue of a labor shortage is a purely economic one.

I definitely think wage stagnation is the problem, not a shortage of people. We have a lot of people, 330 million plus. What we don't have is jobs that pay enough to keep people in them very long and an environment that doesn't cater very well to lower income people.

It is an undeniable fact that we have a labor shortage. As of April 2021, there were 9.29 million unfilled job openings, and it's been steadily increasing. In May of 2021, the total number of unemployed was 2.0 million. That's a difference of some 7 million. Even if you factor in the long term unemployed, which is roughly twice that of those 'newly' unemployed, that's still a difference of some 3 million job openings.

https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2021/numbe ... y-2021.htm

https://www.statista.com/statistics/217 ... %20rows%20

So I have to heavily disagree with. Wages rising would help immensely with the labor shortage. .

How? Is the information I have presented wrong or unreliable? Do you have any facts that you can show that will support your assertations?

[c_hawkbob]

Holy oversimplification Batman!

"You're talking about a different, unrelated problem?!!"

I'm truly flabbergasted. If you can't see the relationship of the skyrocketing wealth growth of the uber-rich vs the decades long stagnation of the income of the working poor (the people you seem to be wanting to blame) despite huge cost of living increases across the board I can't even have this discussion with you.

You want to ascribe all of the blame for a hugely complex issue to your own single favorite scapegoat and disallow any other obviously contributing factors. That just not how the world really works. So you have at it.

[Aseahawkfan]

Holy oversimplification Batman!

"You're talking about a different, unrelated problem?!!"

I'm truly flabbergasted. If you can't see the relationship of the skyrocketing wealth growth of the uber-rich vs the decades long stagnation of the income of the working poor (the people you seem to be wanting to blame) despite huge cost of living increases across the board I can't even have this discussion with you.

You want to ascribe all of the blame for a hugely complex issue to your own single favorite scapegoat and disallow any other obviously contributing factors. That just not how the world really works. So you have at it.

I don't see that relationship unless you mean the methods used by company owners to crush wages aka labor costs, not the wealth itself. The rise of the uber rich can be explained by companies taking a large share of the pie worldwide as well as the increased money in the stock market by investors from the uber rich to the middle class which increases the price of company shares and thus the paper wealth of the owners. But that's an entire topic that doesn't get discussed well enough for most Americans to even understand the difference between wealth as a share of company ownership and real wealth held in liquid assets.

Here are some of the methods companies to use to break wages:

1. Union breaking. Unions negotiate higher wages and benefits for workers. Big Tech has been very aggressive in keeping unions out, paying certain workers well enough to keep unions out, and using advertising to make unions look bad. Then again unions do have some issues.

2. Globalization of the Labor Force. Rising wages in favor of the worker occur when a labor shortage occurs, which will cause employers to have to pay more money to workers without being able to raise the price of goods and services. If companies can outsource moving jobs to another country to cut costs and reduce regulation or bring in more workers to increase the supply of labor via immigration and H1B visa programs, then they put downward pressure on wages in their favor.

Americans having to compete for jobs with everyone around the world is not a great position to be in for American workers.

3. Automation. Automation to reduce the reliance on human labor for production is going to obviously crush the ability of workers to negotiate higher wages as they are competing against machines.

4. Questionable Business Practices. Employing as many part time workers as possible on contract so they don't have to pay benefits, manage retirement, and can terminate their contract if they need to quickly reduce the labor force.

Lots of underhanded tactics to undermine the working the class leverage in a capitalist system that you don't see many Republican voters acknowledge because they're too busy being baited into being angry at something else stupid. But at the same time you see the Democrats selling their followers that immigration isn't a problem even though they know full well that economically speaking increased immigration expands the labor pool which reduces labor shortages and works in favor of big companies keeping wages low because there is never a shortage in the labor supply. If a Democrat were to ever say, "But isn't it a problem to allow companies to keep bringing in more workers we have to compete against if we're trying to raise our wages?" Never see it happen just as you likely won't see a Republican say, "Don't unions allow workers to create leverage against companies who employ hundreds of thousands of workers so that no single worker is powerful enough alone to have enough leverage to negotiate a substantial wage increase?"

But we'll see if Biden's competition committee can improve some things. Maybe it will offer something new.

[Aseahawkfan]

You're talking about a different, unrelated problem. Resolving an income inequity does not address a labor shortage. Unless there is a large pool of long term unemployed that a raising of wages might motivate to enter the work force, simply raising wages doesn't add workers to the work force. Although I don't necessarily disagree that income inequity is a problem that should be addressed, the issue of a labor shortage is a purely economic one.

Labor shortages are necessary to drive up wages in favor of employees. So a labor shortage is not a bad thing for workers at all.

It is an undeniable fact that we have a labor shortage. As of April 2021, there were 9.29 million unfilled job openings, and it's been steadily increasing. In May of 2021, the total number of unemployed was 2.0 million. That's a difference of some 7 million. Even if you factor in the long term unemployed, which is roughly twice that of those 'newly' unemployed, that's still a difference of some 3 million job openings.

https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2021/numbe ... y-2021.htm

https://www.statista.com/statistics/217 ... %20rows%20

We need one so that workers can negotiate higher wages from a position of leverage. They will return to work when wages are attractive enough to cause them to return.

How? Is the information I have presented wrong or unreliable? Do you have any facts that you can show that will support your assertations?

Do I have facts that support my assertions? Yes. Hundreds of years of capitalism. If workers are not returning to work, then they are not doing so because wages and circumstances are not attractive enough for them to return.

That's how it works. Nothing you post changes that.

On top of that, we just re-opened. These are strange circumstances, so nothing is going to respond as expected. Give the re-opening some time. Not like even if people were applying for jobs in droves that these guys would all be able to hire everyone that quickly to start with.

Sheesh. I can't stand both of these sides looking to ascribe these stupid reasons to something that is simply a matter of ,"We just re-opened fully. It will take some time to get this all reversed."

[RiverDog]

Labor shortages are necessary to drive up wages in favor of employees. So a labor shortage is not a bad thing for workers at all.

It's great from a worker's POV, and I'd love to be a college grad in today's employment market. It seems like every sector is looking for workers. It's quite a bit different than when I graduated in the late 70's, with unemployment rates from 8-12%.

But it's not so great when you look at the overall economy. If the labor shortage isn't fixed, then we can expect the economy to shrink. It's already happening, with so many restaurants that have gone out of business since the pandemic. How can anyone open a low to medium cost restaurant when they can't find workers willing to work for $15/hr? Say goodbye to places like Applebee's and TGI Friday's. Only the high end, white table cloth restaurants that charge $75/plate will be able to afford to pay their staff $25/hr. Middle class families aren't going to spend $150 to take a family of 4 to dinner.

It is an undeniable fact that we have a labor shortage. As of April 2021, there were 9.29 million unfilled job openings, and it's been steadily increasing. In May of 2021, the total number of unemployed was 2.0 million. That's a difference of some 7 million. Even if you factor in the long term unemployed, which is roughly twice that of those 'newly' unemployed, that's still a difference of some 3 million job openings.

https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2021/numbe ... y-2021.htm

https://www.statista.com/statistics/217 ... %20rows%20

How? Is the information I have presented wrong or unreliable? Do you have any facts that you can show that will support your assertations?

Do I have facts that support my assertions? Yes. Hundreds of years of capitalism. If workers are not returning to work, then they are not doing so because wages and circumstances are not attractive enough for them to return.

That's not a fact and you know it. You're not that stupid. Where are all these people that will be returning to work once wages are attractive enough for them? How many of them are there? Will there be enough to fill the available job openings? Those are the facts that I'm talking about that is necessary for you to qualify your argument, not some philosophical statement about capitalism.

On top of that, we just re-opened. These are strange circumstances, so nothing is going to respond as expected. Give the re-opening some time. Not like even if people were applying for jobs in droves that these guys would all be able to hire everyone that quickly to start with.

Sheesh. I can't stand both of these sides looking to ascribe these stupid reasons to something that is simply a matter of ,"We just re-opened fully. It will take some time to get this all reversed."

For the umpteenth time: WE HAD A LABOR SHORTAGE BEFORE THE PANDEMIC!

Since 2009, the ratio of unemployed people per job opening has ranged from 0.8 during 2018 and 2019 to 6.4 in July 2009, a month after the end of the most recent recession.

https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2019/numbe ... %20rows%20

.8 unemployed people per job opening in 2018 and 2019. That means that there were 20% more job openings than there were unemployed. Simply ending the pandemic isn't going to fix the problem.

[Aseahawkfan]

That's not a fact and you know it. You're not that stupid. Where are all these people that will be returning to work once wages are attractive enough for them? How many of them are there? Will there be enough to fill the available job openings? Those are the facts that I'm talking about that is necessary for you to qualify your argument, not some philosophical statement about capitalism.

It is an absolute fact that wages drive workers to take jobs. Better wages and you are more likely to attract more people.

For the umpteenth time: WE HAD A LABOR SHORTAGE BEFORE THE PANDEMIC!

Since 2009, the ratio of unemployed people per job opening has ranged from 0.8 during 2018 and 2019 to 6.4 in July 2009, a month after the end of the most recent recession.

https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2019/numbe ... %20rows%20

.8 unemployed people per job opening in 2018 and 2019. That means that there were 20% more job openings than there were unemployed. Simply ending the pandemic isn't going to fix the problem.

For the UMPTEENTH time analyzing a labor shortage absent information like what are they paying and what jobs are open isn't good information.

You can post again and again and again that there is a labor shortage. It won't change that if this labor shortage is because restaurants are paying 10 bucks and hour and it is making those jobs highly unattractive because they don't pay a living wage, then those jobs won't be filled.

You keep talking about plates of food at $75 bucks, but that only occurs if people are willing to pay $75 for a plate of food. You will still have downward price pressure if people are unwilling or unable to pay that price.

You want a labor shortage that causes a rise in wages that occurs faster than a rise in prices. That is when real wages rise. Real wages as in wages compared to inflation don't rise without a labor shortage advantaging workers so that their wages rise faster than the cost of living. It causes a profit margin compression in favor of workers.

It's why a labor shortage is better than a minimum wage because it allows the market to determine wages by supply-demand and also continues downward pressure on prices due to competition between companies causing the kind of real wage growth we want to see in the economy.

How am I supposed to explain this element of capitalism unless you naturally have studied it and understand what real wages are compared to inflation and labor shortages highly favor workers and margin compression that leads to growth in real wages? We want labor shortages. It will do the job of shrinking wealth inequality without the government becoming involved.

Whereas if you're implying that we need to bring more people in, that's just BS. You don't want to reduce the labor shortage so that the labor supply is constantly expanded in favor of businesses. Sometimes you have to let the workers gain an advantage in the negotiations to force real wage growth and margin compression.

[RiverDog]

For the UMPTEENTH time analyzing a labor shortage absent information like what are they paying and what jobs are open isn't good information.

Sigh...I really wish you'd do your own homework instead of me doing it for you. All you want to do is use this forum as a place to rant, not to exchange information.

Nevertheless, here's the answer to your question.

https://www.bls.gov/charts/job-openings ... dustry.htm

Pick your category, nearly all of them have 5% of their positions unfilled. Professional and business services, 7.1%. Health care and social assistance: 6.9%. Retail trade: 5.6%. Take a look at those graphs and note the increase over the past few years.

Wages are going up, more so than prices. According to the Bureau of Labor and Statistics, in the first quarter of 2021, wages went up 40% higher than prices:

Median weekly earnings of the nation's 112.1 million full-time wage and salary workers were $989 in the first quarter of 2021 (not seasonally adjusted), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This was 3.3 percent higher than a year earlier, compared with a gain of 1.9 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) over the same period.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/wkyeng.pdf

There needs to be a balance between supply and demand in order for the economy to remain healthy. At this point, demand for labor is far outpacing supply.

[Aseahawkfan]

Sigh...I really wish you'd do your own homework instead of me doing it for you. All you want to do is use this forum as a place to rant, not to exchange information.

Nevertheless, here's the answer to your question.

https://www.bls.gov/charts/job-openings ... dustry.htm

Pick your category, nearly all of them have 5% of their positions unfilled. Professional and business services, 7.1%. Health care and social assistance: 6.9%. Retail trade: 5.6%. Take a look at those graphs and note the increase over the past few years.

Wages are going up, more so than prices. According to the Bureau of Labor and Statistics, in the first quarter of 2021, wages went up 40% higher than prices:

Median weekly earnings of the nation's 112.1 million full-time wage and salary workers were $989 in the first quarter of 2021 (not seasonally adjusted), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This was 3.3 percent higher than a year earlier, compared with a gain of 1.9 percent in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) over the same period.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/wkyeng.pdf

There needs to be a balance between supply and demand in order for the economy to remain healthy. At this point, demand for labor is far outpacing supply.

This is another example of you being so invested in your idea that you can't see or admit when you're wrong. This is why it is difficult to have a discussion with you. You can't even see when the very information you're posting proves you wrong. The articles you posted are proving my point, not yours. That point being labor shortages are good for workers and are due to wages. They will drive up real wages. And that workers will return to work as the wages rise and attract more workers as the wages rise. They are a better mechanism for boosting wealth for working people than minimum wage, taxes, and the like. You posted some garbage to start this thread about wages not being the reason for labor shortages in complete contradiction to the way labor supply-demand lines work. It was a total BS idea that is in contradiction to how capitalism and free markets work.

Even if you show that the unemployment benefits are keeping people at home, that is still a wage issue because the unemployment benefits are paying more than the wages of a given job thus causing a worker to stay at home due to the job market not providing competitive wages to the boosted unemployment.

Even when when we import workers via immigration it is due to wages as they are coming here because competing sources of income are lower where they live.

You just posted an article that wages are rising because of the labor shortage because business have to pay more to get people to come back to work. This is in contradiction to your original assertion that wages aren't the main cause of this labor shortage.

Stop trying to sell BS about labor shortages not being due to wages. Sure, you can have skill labor shortages too, but as your chart shows the labor shortages are across the board, which means it is not due to a skill shortage like Big Tech likes to constantly sell us to keep the government H1B visa program going strong.

This is a general widespread labor shortage which should lead to increased real wages and finally provide workers with some leverage to push for higher wages. It will be good for the economy and good for working people. The government should let it last for a while as it will do a far better job of driving up real wages without concomitant price increases than their usual methods. So be happy workers are finally getting leverage to push up real wages that businesses cannot easily pass on to consumers.

And once again, I will reiterate that we have just reopened and a lot of what is going on is due to the temporary COVID restrictions. We will see how things pan out. I'm not talking just the labor shortage, but the COVID unemployment, sky-high housing prices, rising rents, decimation of cities, and the like. So we won't get a good snapshot of the economy until we get further away from full lockdown and with this Delta variant spreading we could lockdown again if it gets bad or at least have localized lockdowns. There are a lot of moving parts right now and a lot of risks and factors in this economy.

I watch the stock market every day. I get a few newsletters on it. I watch tons of informational videos on the economy and stock market every day. I would advise you not to believe anyone telling you there is some singular factor causing any particular event in the current economy because this is far and away not a normal economy at all and won't be for probably a few years. I haven't putting near as much money in the market because valuations are pretty crazy right now. There is a lot going on from changing business practices, work environments, consumer choices, and no one is quite sure where it will land.

And to answer your original question, keep boosting the wages. First time in a long time real wages are rising across the board rather than just in some limited high tech jobs that only a few people can learn. Don't let these companies kill the labor shortage with their usual methods. Give workers some leverage and force these companies to compress margins and pay more for labor. Wages rising faster than inflation is what we want. In the long run, it will lead to a better economy.

[Aseahawkfan]

Another interesting question is can we even return to the previous wage levels?

Rents are rising: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/07/09/rent-prices-rising/

Inflation is up: https://www.vox.com/the-goods/22549250/inflation-consumer-prices-lumber-used-cars-gas

Housing prices are obviously insane. Do a general search and you will see the craziest housing market since 2006 from what I have heard.

Gas prices are on the rise. You can do a search on gas prices they are rising everywhere.

We printed 35% of all money in circulation in the last year. https://techstartups.com/2021/05/22/40-us-dollars-existence-printed-last-12-months-america-repeating-mistake-1921-weimar-germany/

That begs the question is this temporary or is this a long-term change? Would workers who come back for even the $15 minimum wage be able to pay their bills?

The above is just the tip of the iceberg as far as what's occurring in the economy. It's why we need to tread carefully and be patient. The Fed Bank and Government used unprecedented measures to bolster the economy during the COVID lockdowns. It has to be sorted out carefully of we could have a crazy crash or some other issue with the economy that is unforeseen.

Wages may need to rise quite a bit to absorb the money printing and inflation that is coming and still allow people to live at even a similar level to pre-COVID. The hope is this inflation is temporary, but no one knows for sure yet how this strange mix of economic circumstances is going to play out long-term in the economy. I would be hesitant to buy into any one factor as the reason for any of this given all the factors currently affected the economy.

Best hope we have is to pray, wish, or just hope this all turns out well and we can recover quickly without some serious setbacks from all the crazy of the last year.

[RiverDog]

Another interesting question is can we even return to the previous wage levels?

Rents are rising: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/07/09/rent-prices-rising/

Inflation is up: https://www.vox.com/the-goods/22549250/inflation-consumer-prices-lumber-used-cars-gas

Housing prices are obviously insane. Do a general search and you will see the craziest housing market since 2006 from what I have heard.

Gas prices are on the rise. You can do a search on gas prices they are rising everywhere.

We printed 35% of all money in circulation in the last year. https://techstartups.com/2021/05/22/40-us-dollars-existence-printed-last-12-months-america-repeating-mistake-1921-weimar-germany/

That begs the question is this temporary or is this a long-term change? Would workers who come back for even the $15 minimum wage be able to pay their bills?

The above is just the tip of the iceberg as far as what's occurring in the economy. It's why we need to tread carefully and be patient. The Fed Bank and Government used unprecedented measures to bolster the economy during the COVID lockdowns. It has to be sorted out carefully of we could have a crazy crash or some other issue with the economy that is unforeseen.

Wages may need to rise quite a bit to absorb the money printing and inflation that is coming and still allow people to live at even a similar level to pre-COVID. The hope is this inflation is temporary, but no one knows for sure yet how this strange mix of economic circumstances is going to play out long-term in the economy. I would be hesitant to buy into any one factor as the reason for any of this given all the factors currently affected the economy.

Best hope we have is to pray, wish, or just hope this all turns out well and we can recover quickly without some serious setbacks from all the crazy of the last year.

Wages won't return to pre-Covid levels, not even close. As I've posted, they've gone up over 3% in one year and we're in a shortage. The only way they'd drop would be if market conditions change dramatically, such as if we were to slip into recession, which I don't see happening.

It's ironic that you mention gas prices. Why are they so high? Well, it seems as due to the labor shortage, we don't have enough truck drivers to transport refined gas from the refineries to the distributors:

https://www.businessinsider.com/gas-pri ... ars-2021-6

"It used to be an afterthought for station owners to schedule truck deliveries. Now it's job No. 1," Kloza told CNN. "What I'm worried about for July is the increased demand works out to about 2,500 to 3,000 more deliveries needed every day. There just aren't the drivers to do that."

De Hann said the demand for oil is still the same, so the lack of gas at stations is simply due to the shortage of drivers.

Hays has been driving trucks for decades. He said he understands why there’s a shortage of truck drivers across the country.

“One of the reasons: all the baby boomer truckers, they’re all retiring, so they can’t fill their seats fast enough, so I’m one of them. I’ll be retiring soon,” he said.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/news/ga ... r-BB1gch6D

These are good paying jobs I'm talking about, not flipping hamburgers at McDonald's:

The average salary for a tanker truck driver is around $60,000 ($30/hr) but can range from around $40,000 on the low end ($20/hr) to as much as $84,000 ($42/hr) for certain tanker jobs.

https://www.cdl.com/trucking-resources/ ... uck-driver

This exact scenario is playing out in other industries as well. Do you know what the average age of a licensed electrician in the US is? 55 years old, and the industry is expected to grow by 8% in the coming years. Simply raising wages isn't going to put more drivers behind the wheel of a big rig or more hands to twist screw drivers.

[RiverDog]

And as we speak, I just came across this article in my news feed:

New home construction and improvement are surging, thanks to the lack of inventory in a red-hot housing market and more people working from home. In an industry already short on workers before the pandemic, construction businesses will need to hire 430,000 workers this year and 1 million more over the next two years in order to keep up, according to Associated Builders and Contractors.

Pay is not the issue

When Matthew Messer started noticing a shortage of workers, he realized he quickly had to raise wages to remain competitive. His remaining employees were being poached by other companies. In the last four months, he's raised entry level wages by 40%. That's on top of rising costs of materials including steel and wood which he says get passed down to the customer.

"I was offering $18-$22 an hour and I got no applications. I increased it to $23 and I got none. I increased it to $25 and they're starting to trickle in right now," said Messer. "It was a dramatic increase, but in order to grow the business, I need technicians."

But unlike other industries facing labor shortages, such as restaurants and hospitality, construction pays nearly double the average hourly rate. A restaurant or hotel worker can make $18.23 per hour on average, compared to $32.86 an hour for a construction worker, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/ameri ... cid=msnews

Another interesting tidbit in the article is that one of the things that's hurting the construction industry is that they don't teach shop in schools anymore so kids don't get exposed to blue collar type work, so they don't even know the basics, like "righty tighty, lefty loosey." It was mandatory for all boys when I was in jr. high, while home economics was mandatory for the girls. Kids don't get their fingers dirty anymore.

[MackStrongIsMyHero]

That last paragraph is really real. I have two great uncles that became welders by trade, actually built and fished their own shrimp boat and they went in together to buy used construction equipment (a small back hoe.) if they wanted a shed, they just built it. They didn’t take stuff to mechanics or hire tradesmen unless they were absolutely certain they couldn’t learn it themselves first. Projects were just another hobby. My two uncles (their nephews) can do the same thing; they used that backhoe to help my brother change out his cracked and broke main drain pipe from this house. Saved him a bundle. Makes me feel like a turd sandwich when I feel accomplished for changing out the plumbing in my commode. And, no, didn’t have shop when I came through school. I did learn to type 60 words a minute though, lol.

But to your topic, I most certainly believe trades are hurting for the reasons you mentioned. It just isn’t considered a primary career choice. I never considered it.

[RiverDog]

That last paragraph is really real. I have two great uncles that became welders by trade, actually built and fished their own shrimp boat and they went in together to buy used construction equipment (a small back hoe.) if they wanted a shed, they just built it. They didn’t take stuff to mechanics or hire tradesmen unless they were absolutely certain they couldn’t learn it themselves first. Projects were just another hobby. My two uncles (their nephews) can do the same thing; they used that backhoe to help my brother change out his cracked and broke main drain pipe from this house. Saved him a bundle. Makes me feel like a turd sandwich when I feel accomplished for changing out the plumbing in my commode. And, no, didn’t have shop when I came through school. I did learn to type 60 words a minute though, lol.

But to your topic, I most certainly believe trades are hurting for the reasons you mentioned. It just isn’t considered a primary career choice. I never considered it.

Hey, Mack, glad you poked your head in here!

I never gave anything more than a passing thought to vocational occupations. College was relatively cheap and you could easily pay your own way without incurring any debt or benefiting from scholarships or grants. I chose to go to college because I could afford it exclusively through my own means and I yearned for the social life. I didn't decide on a career path or major, business administration, until well into my sophomore year. I calculated that I spent about $10k-$12k on 4+ years at a liberal arts college, cheap even when you factor in inflation.

What many people, particularly those on the far left that want to make college free, cancel student loan debt, and so on, don't appreciate is that there are some very viable alternatives (and always has been) for a young person to set themselves up with a very good paying job with multiple career paths without having to spend, as in some cases, over $100K on an education. Today's generation, in general, tends to consider only college and related occupations and don't give a second thought about working in the trade industry. That's why I don't have a lot of sympathy for kids that run up such high student debt. They had some very viable options that they chose not to consider.

Back to the OP. There is a labor shortage, it was with us before the pandemic, it will be with us when the pandemic is over, raising wages will not fix it, and with the demographical change in this country, it's only going to get worse.

[NorthHawk]

Germany has an interesting model in that they stream people from an early age into occupations they have an interest in.
It wouldn't have worked for me, though as I didn't really know what I wanted to do and after starting in economics and working towards
an Accounting degree, I ended up in IT on the infrastructure and security side.

However, the vocational types of educational institutes have lost out in the PR game to the Universities and Colleges, but I don't know
how much demand there is for someone with a Geography degree or General Studies. On a side note before I retired 7 years ago, we
would hire people with any type of degree, but no aptitude for the job and left out people that didn't have that piece of paper but knew
a lot more about how things fit together and would be able to take courses to supplement their gaps in knowledge. That part always
baffled me. By the end of my tenure we were asking for Masters degrees and 3 or more years of experience for an entry level position.
Of course that led to a revolving door for people who would start then move on when another or better job came up.

Today we have a situation where we need Plumbers, Carpenters, Electricians, and so forth but the educational system isn't set up to
produce these types of graduates in the quantities needed. I think there has to be more emphasis on the trades in High School like
their used to be but with more advanced studies than we had. Along with adding more positions in the trade schools, this might
help give a boost to those that want to go into that type of work and help alleviate the lack of skilled workers. Companies would
love to take on an Apprentice who already knows the work and can fit in quickly and move to Journeyman status as they progress.

[RiverDog]

Germany has an interesting model in that they stream people from an early age into occupations they have an interest in.
It wouldn't have worked for me, though as I didn't really know what I wanted to do and after starting in economics and working towards
an Accounting degree, I ended up in IT on the infrastructure and security side.

However, the vocational types of educational institutes have lost out in the PR game to the Universities and Colleges, but I don't know
how much demand there is for someone with a Geography degree or General Studies. On a side note before I retired 7 years ago, we
would hire people with any type of degree, but no aptitude for the job and left out people that didn't have that piece of paper but knew
a lot more about how things fit together and would be able to take courses to supplement their gaps in knowledge. That part always
baffled me. By the end of my tenure we were asking for Masters degrees and 3 or more years of experience for an entry level position.
Of course that led to a revolving door for people who would start then move on when another or better job came up.

Today we have a situation where we need Plumbers, Carpenters, Electricians, and so forth but the educational system isn't set up to
produce these types of graduates in the quantities needed. I think there has to be more emphasis on the trades in High School like
their used to be but with more advanced studies than we had. Along with adding more positions in the trade schools, this might
help give a boost to those that want to go into that type of work and help alleviate the lack of skilled workers. Companies would
love to take on an Apprentice who already knows the work and can fit in quickly and move to Journeyman status as they progress.

This is a subject that I'd like to hear from mykc on as he's an educator, but my sense is that we don't do a good job of counseling students in high school, taking into consideration a student's strengths and weaknesses and offering them some good advice on what kind of occupation and post secondary education that they'd be most likely to succeed at. I'm also with you on re-instituting vocational studies in high school, and teaming up with construction companies to form some sort of apprenticeship program is a great idea.

The other thing that needs to happen is that they need to encourage more women to consider the blue collar types of jobs we've been discussing. I used to be a fleet supervisor, and although women tended to lag behind the men when it came to trouble shooting their rigs, they had an advantage in that they tended to be more safety conscious and easier on the equipment than their male counterparts that suffered from their precious male egos.

One of my biggest beefs about these various proposals to make college free is that it's going to encourage young students that either don't have the academic ability to succeed at the college level and sets them up for failure or those that only want to go there for social reasons. It would make things worse for the serious students. If they're going to make anything free or inexpensive, it should be the technical/vocational schools and community colleges as that's where our needs are.

Back to the OP. We still don't have enough people to fill all the job openings that exist in today's economy. All we would be doing by implementing what we've discussed would be to take students out of one program and put them into another, robbing Peter to pay Paul. The labor pool needs to be expanded, either by rehabilitating those that are chronically unemployed, extending the retirement age, or allowing more immigrants, particularly younger ones that would help offset the demographical trend of our aging society.

[Hawktawk]

One thing about employees is more teens are working. Having not held jobs they weren't eligible for the bailouts and income replacement modifications to unemployment. On the downside they have never worked in many instances, are notoriously unreliable, especially Monday, Friday and weekends. Its why HT has been working 16 hour days trying to keep turf alive in 117% heat and then a month of 100 with water restrictions in place, working every day and still losing ground. Doesn't look promising in the near future either.

As for the current labor situation I'm torn. I think its kind of ironic when the little guys and gals, blue collar, service industry etc. get a bailout finally everyone's up in arms. Up is down these days and down is up. I care more about bailing out airlines, pumping the stock market with my great great grandkids money. I dont care if the industrious hard working people covering for labor shortages are suddenly in a sellers market and their millionaire owners with their yachts and house on a hill have to pay a little or even a lot more. Ill pay more for goods and services as my patriotic duty to keep people above poverty and keep my businesses open.

[NorthHawk]

ASF was probably right in that we don't know how this will all shake out and the real reasons why there is a labor shortage today.
One of the factors up here is people nearing retirement age are now pulling the plug earlier at a larger rate than normal at the
current time. Whether this is a trend or just a blip remains to be seen, but it does worry some businesses who will lose some
very experienced employees and mentors to younger workers. It creates good opportunities for those wanting to move up but
hiring at the bottom is a concern.
This might be a transitional moment in economic history - or it might just be a rough patch and things will continue as they
have for the last few years. We'll just have to wait and see.

[RiverDog]

One thing about employees is more teens are working. Having not held jobs they weren't eligible for the bailouts and income replacement modifications to unemployment. On the downside they have never worked in many instances, are notoriously unreliable, especially Monday, Friday and weekends. Its why HT has been working 16 hour days trying to keep turf alive in 117% heat and then a month of 100 with water restrictions in place, working every day and still losing ground. Doesn't look promising in the near future either.

As for the current labor situation I'm torn. I think its kind of ironic when the little guys and gals, blue collar, service industry etc. get a bailout finally everyone's up in arms. Up is down these days and down is up. I care more about bailing out airlines, pumping the stock market with my great great grandkids money. I dont care if the industrious hard working people covering for labor shortages are suddenly in a sellers market and their millionaire owners with their yachts and house on a hill have to pay a little or even a lot more. Ill pay more for goods and services as my patriotic duty to keep people above poverty and keep my businesses open.

My heart goes out to you, HT. I don't envy the predicament that you're in as I can visualize your situation. Your participation in this forum has been missed.

I agree wholeheartedly with your observation about the work habits of today's teenagers, but I would extend it to apply to a good many of our native born adults. They feel that physical labor is below them, and it's one of the major causes of the shortage of blue collar laborers. That's why I've said on multiple occasions that I'd take a crew of immigrants over their native born counterparts any day of the week and twice on Sundays.

Some states need to take a look at their child labor laws. In this state, they have so many stupid ass requirements, such as limiting minors to 48 hours in a non school week, can only work from 5am-midnight, and so on. Although they were written with the best of intentions, they are, in some cases, denying those kids with a good work ethic the same opportunity that I had when I was growing up. I was working 12 hour days 7 days a week when I was 16 years old, often times driving a pea swather or combine on a night shift from 6pm-6am, and I wouldn't have had it any other way. My parents were fully behind me, with my dad lining up the jobs for me. It's one of the things that allowed me to save for my education. If a young kid wants to work those kind of hours, I see no reason why they should be restricted from doing so.

At the other end of the age spectrum, they need to eliminate Social Security's early retirement option. Not only is it cutting out a good portion of our available labor force, an experienced and valuable portion at that, it's one of the things that's bankrupting our SS system. But no one wants to talk about Social Security reform as a solution because it's considered the 3rd rail of politics: Touch it and you're dead.

This labor shortage issue needs national attention.

[RiverDog]

Over the past couple of weeks, I've received two cards in the mail from the USPS saying that they're hiring. Never in my life have I ever received even one card from any government agency, outside of the military, that were advertising for employees.

I tried to call a ticket vendor to ask how to download some electronic tickets I bought and was having difficulty getting them to transfer to my phone. I got a recorded message saying that due to a shortage of personnel, that they were not fielding any calls about tickets until 3 business days prior to the event.

My former employer is now offering $1,000 sign on bonuses for entry level positions. I spent 40 years in the business, and never have I seen anyone in the industry offer sign on bonuses for any position, salaried or hourly.

The economy may be slowing down some due to the rise of the Delta variant, but this current labor market is something that I've never witnessed in my life.

[c_hawkbob]

Over the past couple of weeks, I've received two cards in the mail from the USPS saying that they're hiring. Never in my life have I ever received even one card from any government agency, outside of the military, that were advertising for employees.

I tried to call a ticket vendor to ask how to download some electronic tickets I bought and was having difficulty getting them to transfer to my phone. I got a recorded message saying that due to a shortage of personnel, that they were not fielding any calls about tickets until 3 business days prior to the event.

My former employer is now offering $1,000 sign on bonuses for entry level positions. I spent 40 years in the business, and never have I seen anyone in the industry offer sign on bonuses for any position, salaried or hourly.

The economy may be slowing down some due to the rise of the Delta variant, but this current labor market is something that I've never witnessed in my life.

The bottom of the labor market, sub minimum wage farm and service jobs, as well as reasonably well paying but distasteful jobs like meat processing plants (jobs many white entry level applicants are "too good for"), is also being gutted by the immigration crackdown.

[Aseahawkfan]

As far as discussions in the business world, the labor shortage will take months to correct for the short-term COVID caused shortage and years for the long-term general labor shortage. Hiring and training is a slow process. Jobs will be chosen by wage and capability.

I really can't even begin to explain all the factors being discussed, but I'll toss out a few:

1. No one is sure if big companies will return to the office. That means it is hard to determine if you want to re-open or maintain stores in urban areas that will no longer have the same number of employees present.

2. No one is sure the COVID restrictions are over. If we lockdown again, a bunch of hired people will have to be laid off.

3. Hiring and training takes time. You can't just quickly hire a bunch of people and toss them into the mix unless the job is extremely easy.

4. There is a tremendous amount of competition for workers right now as they move back into the work force. Best companies paying the best wage will snap people up first and it will filter down.

There are a lot of unknowns and reevaluation going on in business. For a lot of jobs that employ High Schoolers part time, their parents may not want them to work and risk COVID. So that part of he work force may be out for some time regardless of pay or unemployment. If you have older parents at home, you don't want to work in some fast food restaurant around people then bring home the bad nasty to your parents.

Until we get surety on COVID and see what the urban market demographics look like, I think it will be slow going.

Even in my buddy's industry of high paying white collar jobs in aviation, they are not hiring at a rapid pace. He still hasn't been able to get a job. For all the talk of companies looking for workers, they are moving slow about hiring and training unless it's an Amazon warehouse or something similar that is booming right now. Even they might start to slow down and lay off people if the environment normalizes and people return to normal shopping at stores.

I know trying to attribute why this is happening right now is extremely hard to do.

They just renewed the eviction ban. They don't have a clear picture of how that is affecting things and how many people are not paying rent or owe a lot of back rent.

This is going to be one crazy ride for the next year or two.

[RiverDog]

The bottom of the labor market, sub minimum wage farm and service jobs, as well as reasonably well paying but distasteful jobs like meat processing plants (jobs many white entry level applicants are "too good for"), is also being gutted by the immigration crackdown.

The problem goes way beyond the low paying, minimum wage, distasteful jobs, which is why I cited the USPS actively recruiting employees by sending out postcards in our mail. As long as I can remember, I've never seen them doing that.

There are very good, well paying jobs that are actively recruiting workers like never before. Driving around the countryside, the wife and I lament at how many places we see that have "Now Hiring" signs in front of their business. More so than before, nearly every truck that we see on the highway has a placard on their van with a 1-800 number saying that they're hiring. There's a huge shortage of construction related work, like electricians, plumbers, carpenters etc. Those aren't minimum wage jobs.

I do agree that some of it is caused by the immigration "crackdown", if you want to call it that. As with everything else, the pandemic has forced a border closure, and even as much of a pro immigration advocate that I am, I understand and agree with the temporary closing of our borders. But I really think that our economy is in for a re-order of some sort, with services becoming very expensive and hard to find and inflation rearing its ugly head.

[RiverDog]

As far as discussions in the business world, the labor shortage will take months to correct for the short-term COVID caused shortage and years for the long-term general labor shortage. Hiring and training is a slow process. Jobs will be chosen by wage and capability.

I really can't even begin to explain all the factors being discussed, but I'll toss out a few:

1. No one is sure if big companies will return to the office. That means it is hard to determine if you want to re-open or maintain stores in urban areas that will no longer have the same number of employees present.

2. No one is sure the COVID restrictions are over. If we lockdown again, a bunch of hired people will have to be laid off.

3. Hiring and training takes time. You can't just quickly hire a bunch of people and toss them into the mix unless the job is extremely easy.

4. There is a tremendous amount of competition for workers right now as they move back into the work force. Best companies paying the best wage will snap people up first and it will filter down.

There are a lot of unknowns and reevaluation going on in business. For a lot of jobs that employ High Schoolers part time, their parents may not want them to work and risk COVID. So that part of he work force may be out for some time regardless of pay or unemployment. If you have older parents at home, you don't want to work in some fast food restaurant around people then bring home the bad nasty to your parents.

Until we get surety on COVID and see what the urban market demographics look like, I think it will be slow going.

Even in my buddy's industry of high paying white collar jobs in aviation, they are not hiring at a rapid pace. He still hasn't been able to get a job. For all the talk of companies looking for workers, they are moving slow about hiring and training unless it's an Amazon warehouse or something similar that is booming right now. Even they might start to slow down and lay off people if the environment normalizes and people return to normal shopping at stores.

I know trying to attribute why this is happening right now is extremely hard to do.

They just renewed the eviction ban. They don't have a clear picture of how that is affecting things and how many people are not paying rent or owe a lot of back rent.

This is going to be one crazy ride for the next year or two.

That's a pretty good summation that I mostly agree with.

But I do want to point out in the underlined portion of your comments that labor shortages will always work from the bottom up so it isn't surprising that your friend's business is relatively unaffected by the labor shortage. People at the lower end of the wage scale will migrate to the more desirable, higher paying jobs. There will always be a lot of applicants for the types of jobs that you are referring to. It's backfilling the jobs they left where the shortages will occur, and that's working its way up from the lower end into the middle income type of jobs, ie construction, truck drivers, et al.

Another part of the problem is there's a lot of single moms that can't go to work because their kids are not in school and having to attend remotely. I have several friends that I know of that are in that situation.

[c_hawkbob]

I said the bottom of the labor market was being also being gutted (a thing that had been absent from this discussion) not that it was the entire issue.

[RiverDog]

I said the bottom of the labor market was being also being gutted (a thing that had been absent from this discussion) not that it was the entire issue.

Ahh, OK. I stand corrected.

I'll have to admit to a bias. I have a good fried, a "bedwetting liberal", of whom I've debated frequently with and who thinks that the solution to the labor shortage problem is simply to raise wages, in particular, the minimum wage. I have a tendency to lump you in with him, which isn't a bad thing as I have a great deal of respect for my "bedwetting" friend.

Hopefully this labor shortage is only a temporary situation of which most of pandemic related, but I have a feeling that it's going to be a problem that causes our economy to make some major re-adjustments. Fast food restaurants, unable to pay high enough to attract workers and still sell meals for under $10, might be harder to come by. Or they might be forced to invest in labor saving devices, no more human hamburger flippers, which would also cause the industry to shrink as only the high volume outlets would be able to afford such devices. If restaurants have to start paying $20/hr, then the mid range restaurants like Appleby's and Chili's might not be able to survive as instead of competing with McDonald's, they'd be competing with Red Lobster. Not too many people are going to want to pay $50 a plate for a kid's meal.

One obvious solution, obvious to me at least, would be to liberalize our immigration policy. That's the biggest single issue I had with Trump, that he demonized immigrants, characterizing them as nothing but a bunch of drug running criminals out to rape our women. That doesn't mean that I'm for open borders or abolishing ICE. We learned that lesson as a result of 9/11.

But I do think that our government should work with private industry to identify their needs then help them in procuring foreign, law abiding and preferably younger immigrants, to fill positions when there are not enough native born applicants as an option to engaging in bidding wars with other employers. Most countries have been teaching English in their schools for some time and it's becoming more the exception than the rule where an immigrant doesn't know any English, so I'm not necessarily talking about minimum wage type jobs that don't require interaction with the public.

Anyhow, we'll see how it works out.

[Aseahawkfan]

That's a pretty good summation that I mostly agree with.

But I do want to point out in the underlined portion of your comments that labor shortages will always work from the bottom up so it isn't surprising that your friend's business is relatively unaffected by the labor shortage. People at the lower end of the wage scale will migrate to the more desirable, higher paying jobs. There will always be a lot of applicants for the types of jobs that you are referring to. It's backfilling the jobs they left where the shortages will occur, and that's working its way up from the lower end into the middle income type of jobs, ie construction, truck drivers, et al.

Another part of the problem is there's a lot of single moms that can't go to work because their kids are not in school and having to attend remotely. I have several friends that I know of that are in that situation.

My buddy's job is not moving fast to hire because aviation is very specialized and cyclical and travel is vital to the industry. My buddy's job is not hiring because they are not sure if COVID is done. The aviation industry will get hammered again if we lock down again. He's in aviation and even aviation is hiring back people slowly because they have to be sure this is over or their industry will get destroyed again. It does absolutely nothing to hire back a ton of people in aviation, have the government shut down again, then have to furlough or lay them off. It's just added expense they don't need right now.

Other nations are locking down again even if the United States is not doing so yet. The United Kingdom is locking down again even with one of the highest vaccination rates in the world. If the death rate rises here, people are concerned we may lockdown here. Even though the market is rising, recovery stocks have dropped due to this fear and investor are rotating into safe tech stocks to protect themselves from future lockdowns. It's a very unsure environment for business with some benefitting and some not and a lot of unknowns.

[Aseahawkfan]

Ahh, OK. I stand corrected.

I'll have to admit to a bias. I have a good fried, a "bedwetting liberal", of whom I've debated frequently with and who thinks that the solution to the labor shortage problem is simply to raise wages, in particular, the minimum wage. I have a tendency to lump you in with him, which isn't a bad thing as I have a great deal of respect for my "bedwetting" friend.

Hopefully this labor shortage is only a temporary situation of which most of pandemic related, but I have a feeling that it's going to be a problem that causes our economy to make some major re-adjustments. Fast food restaurants, unable to pay high enough to attract workers and still sell meals for under $10, might be harder to come by. Or they might be forced to invest in labor saving devices, no more human hamburger flippers, which would also cause the industry to shrink as only the high volume outlets would be able to afford such devices. If restaurants have to start paying $20/hr, then the mid range restaurants like Appleby's and Chili's might not be able to survive as instead of competing with McDonald's, they'd be competing with Red Lobster. Not too many people are going to want to pay $50 a plate for a kid's meal.

One obvious solution, obvious to me at least, would be to liberalize our immigration policy. That's the biggest single issue I had with Trump, that he demonized immigrants, characterizing them as nothing but a bunch of drug running criminals out to rape our women. That doesn't mean that I'm for open borders or abolishing ICE. We learned that lesson as a result of 9/11.

But I do think that our government should work with private industry to identify their needs then help them in procuring foreign, law abiding and preferably younger immigrants, to fill positions when there are not enough native born applicants as an option to engaging in bidding wars with other employers. Most countries have been teaching English in their schools for some time and it's becoming more the exception than the rule where an immigrant doesn't know any English, so I'm not necessarily talking about minimum wage type jobs that don't require interaction with the public.

Anyhow, we'll see how it works out.

We already do this. I'm not sure why you think we have low immigration or need liberalization. We average a million plus immigrants a year even under Trump. That is why Ann Coulter hates Trump, because he didn't do anything. His wall did nothing. His rhetoric did nothing. He did nothing to slow immigration.

Businesses already sponsor a lot of immigrants coming over to work. It's not going to change. Big business benefits from diluting the labor pool with foreign labor whether immigration or outsourcing to drive down labor costs. It's why they do it.

They literally used immigration to union break and drive down real wages for decades, which is why it is laughable that Democrat supporters think immigration is good for workers and good for their standard of living when it is heavily supported by big business because of how much they benefit from expanding the labor force to make hiring favorable for them. They complain about low taxes from Republicans, while never bothering to understand how labor works. They also complain about outsourcing, while immigration is insourcing to expand the labor pool.

It's why demonizing immigrants is stupid and distracts from what the problem is with immigration, jobs, and wages. Immigrants in general work harder for less money and buy more houses and act as better Americans than Americans in pursuing what we call the American dream. It makes life harder for lazy Americans who live here. An immigrant will work a crap job for a low wage, while working a second full time job or going to school or doing Uber to better their life while Americans complain they work too many hours for low pay.

It's a no brainer that immigrants make better workers than Americans much of the time. They come from poor countries without the opportunities they have here, so of course they're often going to outwork Americans who have grown lazy.

Immigration is a win-win-win for Big Business. And it's a lose for American workers wanting higher wages.

[RiverDog]

We already do this. I'm not sure why you think we have low immigration or need liberalization. We average a million plus immigrants a year even under Trump. That is why Ann Coulter hates Trump, because he didn't do anything. His wall did nothing. His rhetoric did nothing. He did nothing to slow immigration.

Businesses already sponsor a lot of immigrants coming over to work. It's not going to change. Big business benefits from diluting the labor pool with foreign labor whether immigration or outsourcing to drive down labor costs. It's why they do it.

They literally used immigration to union break and drive down real wages for decades, which is why it is laughable that Democrat supporters think immigration is good for workers and good for their standard of living when it is heavily supported by big business because of how much they benefit from expanding the labor force to make hiring favorable for them. They complain about low taxes from Republicans, while never bothering to understand how labor works. They also complain about outsourcing, while immigration is insourcing to expand the labor pool.

It's why demonizing immigrants is stupid and distracts from what the problem is with immigration, jobs, and wages. Immigrants in general work harder for less money and buy more houses and act as better Americans than Americans in pursuing what we call the American dream. It makes life harder for lazy Americans who live here. An immigrant will work a crap job for a low wage, while working a second full time job or going to school or doing Uber to better their life while Americans complain they work too many hours for low pay.

It's a no brainer that immigrants make better workers than Americans much of the time. They come from poor countries without the opportunities they have here, so of course they're often going to outwork Americans who have grown lazy.

Immigration is a win-win-win for Big Business. And it's a lose for American workers wanting higher wages.

Oh, I can attest to big business bringing in immigrants to break strikes and such. But that was a practice made popular back in the 60's and 70's when a rich E. Washington farmer could go down to Texas and haul up a couple hundred migrants to work as scabs at his processing plant, something I witnessed first hand. Those type of practices don't happen anymore. Furthermore, I'm not talking about bringing up immigrants to pick apples or cut asparagus. I'm talking about businesses, with the aid of the Federal Government and after having proven that they've exhausted the domestic labor pool, going on recruiting trips, putting on job fairs in foreign countries, etc.

One of the problems with our work force is that it is old and with the continuing decline in the birth rate in this country, will continue to age for at least the next twenty years. That does not bode well for socialized systems, everything from health insurance to pensions to SS and Medicare, that depends on active workers contributing to the welfare of the older and retired ones. On the other end of the scale, life expectancy (with the exception of this year and the Covid deaths) has been on a steady increase. If something isn't done to reverse the trend, but 2034, there will be two workers to every one that's drawing Social Security. Something will have to give, either a massive tax increase to support SS/Medicare or a major cut in benefits, two very unpopular choices.

Immigrants tend to be younger, mostly in their 20's and 30's, more likely to pay into insurance plans and less likely to need medical care than a 50 something year old worker. I don't see any viable solution other than just let the economy shrink, let inflation run rampant, and watch those wage increases get wiped out by higher prices.

[Aseahawkfan]

Oh, I can attest to big business bringing in immigrants to break strikes and such. But that was a practice made popular back in the 60's and 70's when a rich E. Washington farmer could go down to Texas and haul up a couple hundred migrants to work as scabs at his processing plant, something I witnessed first hand. Those type of practices don't happen anymore. Furthermore, I'm not talking about bringing up immigrants to pick apples or cut asparagus. I'm talking about businesses, with the aid of the Federal Government and after having proven that they've exhausted the domestic labor pool, going on recruiting trips, putting on job fairs in foreign countries, etc.

One of the problems with our work force is that it is old and with the continuing decline in the birth rate in this country, will continue to age for at least the next twenty years. That does not bode well for socialized systems, everything from health insurance to pensions to SS and Medicare, that depends on active workers contributing to the welfare of the older and retired ones. On the other end of the scale, life expectancy (with the exception of this year and the Covid deaths) has been on a steady increase. If something isn't done to reverse the trend, but 2034, there will be two workers to every one that's drawing Social Security. Something will have to give, either a massive tax increase to support SS/Medicare or a major cut in benefits, two very unpopular choices.

Immigrants tend to be younger, mostly in their 20's and 30's, more likely to pay into insurance plans and less likely to need medical care than a 50 something year old worker. I don't see any viable solution other than just let the economy shrink, let inflation run rampant, and watch those wage increases get wiped out by higher prices.

And they aren't as electronically addicted and lazy as younger Americans today. I've never seen a group of people so electronically addicted and lazy than modern young Americans. The smartphone is basically The Matrix to them. They're like drooling electronically connected zombies who can use any of their portable games anywhere on their phone or using a wifi connection so their video games, talking, and texting can be done anywhere at any time. They have so little discipline to shut it off and do their job. I walk into fast food places and see these people on their phone. Where if you have more immigrants working, many of them are actually working and doing the job.

I remember when the T.V. was viewed as this thing turning everyone into zombies, but the TV is marijuana and the Smartphone is heroin. Smartphone definitely zombifying this generation and all future generations. Electronic addiction is real.

[RiverDog]

And they aren't as electronically addicted and lazy as younger Americans today. I've never seen a group of people so electronically addicted and lazy than modern young Americans. The smartphone is basically The Matrix to them. They're like drooling electronically connected zombies who can use any of their portable games anywhere on their phone or using a wifi connection so their video games, talking, and texting can be done anywhere at any time. They have so little discipline to shut it off and do their job. I walk into fast food places and see these people on their phone. Where if you have more immigrants working, many of them are actually working and doing the job.

10-4 on electronic addiction. We caught a guy multiple times watching movies on his cell phone at his work station (they're not even supposed to have them inside the plant). We suspended him, he returned to work, was told explicitly that the next time he was caught he'd be fired. Two days later, he was caught again and we canned him. He was literally in tears, begging us not to fire him. He was so addicted to his phone that he couldn't leave it in his locker even though he knew quite clearly that he'd lose his job if he got caught again.

But the electronic thing I can deal with. My biggest beef with native born Americans is their sense of entitlement. Of course, that's a generalization, but there's a dramatic difference between immigrants and native born with regards to their attitudes and work ethic. They're also more trusting of authority, and that combined with a general unawareness of their rights, they can be taken advantage of.

I remember when the T.V. was viewed as this thing turning everyone into zombies, but the TV is marijuana and the Smartphone is heroin. Smartphone definitely zombifying this generation and all future generations. Electronic addiction is real.

IMO there's a very close relationship between being addicted to the television for my generation and various electronic devices for the succeeding ones. I remember my mom having to tape a piece of paper over the wall clock as at 6:00pm, it didn't matter if we were finished with our dinner or not, we made a beeline for the TV so we could watch Huckleberry Hound. They couldn't get us to do our homework, couldn't get us out of the house to do our chores, etc. A friend of mine, despite being a very good player, quit the jr. high baseball team so he could come home after school and watch Dark Shadows. Hell, even in college, I remember dumping a date off early so I could get back to my apartment in time to watch SNL. The girls in my generation were just as bad, except their vice was the telephone.

Each generation has a big complaint about the habits and addictions of the succeeding ones. With my parents generation, with them growing up in the late 20's and 30's, it was the radio, us baby boomers it was the TV, Gen X video games/arcades, Millennials cell phones.

[Aseahawkfan]

IMO there's a very close relationship between being addicted to the television for my generation and various electronic devices for the succeeding ones. I remember my mom having to tape a piece of paper over the wall clock as at 6:00pm, it didn't matter if we were finished with our dinner or not, we made a beeline for the TV so we could watch Huckleberry Hound. They couldn't get us to do our homework, couldn't get us out of the house to do our chores, etc. A friend of mine, despite being a very good player, quit the jr. high baseball team so he could come home after school and watch Dark Shadows. Hell, even in college, I remember dumping a date off early so I could get back to my apartment in time to watch SNL. The girls in my generation were just as bad, except their vice was the telephone.

Each generation has a big complaint about the habits and addictions of the succeeding ones. With my parents generation, with them growing up in the late 20's and 30's, it was the radio, us baby boomers it was the TV, Gen X video games/arcades, Millennials cell phones.

It's the portability and access everywhere via wifi that makes the smartphone worse.

At least you couldn't carry your TV and girls couldn't carry their phone everywhere. Now they can. Imagine being able to watch Dark Shadows anywhere at any time or SNL clips all day long.

Now they're working brain implants. We're literally building ourselves a matrix. Humans are always looking at external enemies to fight, but they are their own worst enemy. We're literally screwing ourselves over. A movie about the real problem with humanity would consist of one group of humans doing things to screw over other humans while making it look like it is a good idea.

[RiverDog]

It's the portability and access everywhere via wifi that makes the smartphone worse.

At least you couldn't carry your TV and girls couldn't carry their phone everywhere. Now they can. Imagine being able to watch Dark Shadows anywhere at any time or SNL clips all day long.

Now they're working brain implants. We're literally building ourselves a matrix. Humans are always looking at external enemies to fight, but they are their own worst enemy. We're literally screwing ourselves over. A movie about the real problem with humanity would consist of one group of humans doing things to screw over other humans while making it look like it is a good idea.

The radio was pretty damn portable, but I tend to agree. TV never caused any distracted driving deaths.

However, I'm a little less worried about it than you are. Chronic homelessness and drug addiction/substance abuse are much more serious problems IMO, Heck, that right there could help address our labor shortage.

[RiverDog]

I thought that this subject was worth another look.

The labor shortage is real and beginning to affect our everyday lives. The other day, I had to get my blood drawn ahead of my annual physical. There is a lab in the same building as my dr.'s office and close to my home that I've used for years. I never had to get an appointment, just walk in and out in 10-15 minutes. When I arrived, there was a piece of paper on the door saying that due to a staffing issue, the lab was closed and referred me to another one about 7-8 miles away. After arriving at the alternate clinic, I had to sit in the parking lot and wait 1.5 hours it was so busy.

My favorite bar where I often meet friends is closed on Tuesdays and Wednesdays. The deli in the supermarket I shop at is closed about half of my trips. My former employer is offering $1500 sign on bonuses and still can't get enough workers to run all their lines. I see complaints on my neighborhood blogs of not being able to get services, like a cable TV tech, a plumber, or an electrician, in a timely manner. Gas prices are high in part due to a nation wide shortage of truck drivers.

And worse, we don't have enough ICU units in our local hospitals, due not to available beds, but not enough trained personnel to staff them. We're having to ship patients, in one case, 600 miles to find an open ICU bed. Russell Wilson was able to get his hand xrayed, get in to see a specialist, and had surgery on it within 24 hours of his injury. How long do you think it would take one of us to have a non emergency procedure like that done?

I have never seen so many help wanted signs. If you're a functioning person and can't not only find a job, but a good, well paying job in this economy, you either don't want to work or there is something seriously wrong with you. I don't see it getting better anytime soon. We had a labor shortage before the pandemic began. I'm afraid that we're going to have to get used to this new world where we're having to pay more money for fewer services.