Afghanistan

[Hawktawk]

Next to the utter fiasco on the border this is the biggest black eye on this adminstration so far . Of course the trumplicans are screaming bloody murder but forget trump wanted to sign the deal with the Taliban at camp David on 911 a year ago. Biden came out and blamed trumps agreement , said he inherited it. I don’t like that . Many vets are furious . It’s a slaughter . Now we are trying to rush 5 k troops to Kabul with Taliban in the city . Biden’s comments yesterday were actually quite true and profound but the implementation of this withdrawal is a disaster , a black eye for America again . It has the potential to create another bin laden , another Nichols and McVeigh too. Maybe Blackhawk down . When will we learn

[Aseahawkfan]

Trump is a Demopublican, which is why I find it so strange how many Republicans voted for him. He was anti-war. He was pro spending. He doesn't give a crap about deficit spending. He's done that his whole life. He was publicly anti illegal immigration, while not really slowing it down. He could care less about things like banging women and the sanctity of marriage. The Democrats certainly can't support a continued occupation of Afghanistan which goes against their base. Afghanistan really had no allies other than Bush-type of Republicans which have lost power in the Republican Party.

The fact is Afghanistan was 20 wasted years. Another money, life, and time pit. Unless America takes over running these countries we invade like we did Japan and Germany removing their military capacity and govern for multiple generations providing them protection, we're not going to be successful in turning these nations around. They're drunk on religion and dreams of the Muslim Crusade. And Muslim ruled nations violently enforce their belief system on the public. If you don't plan on using violence back, then you're going to lose.

Islamic Theocracy has a certain way of doing things. If you're not willing to violently disrupt it, then you have little chance of beating it. They call the spread of Islam the Islamic Conquest for a reason because Islam was spread by armed conquest where the believers took over other nations to spread the word of The Prophet. They had clear rules and ways they encouraged the entire population to convert to Islam. They feel no compunctions whatsoever about violently enforcing Islamic Rule as that is the will of Allah. The only way to disrupt it is to kill the Muslim Theocrats enforcing this paradigm on the rest of the population.

America don't have the stones or will for that type of warfare any longer. That is why they should stop interfering with other areas of the world if they don't have the will to do what is necessary to reshape another nation. The era of nation building is over. The European Powers who used to have the will of their people to reshape and build new nations or change existing nations is gone. And we can't be acting as the muscle for local conflicts as all that does is prop up weak leadership like we've seen in Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran, and Latin America over the last 50 years.

We need to stay out of these nations and conflicts. Let those people sort out what kind of future nation they want. It's not our business if we can't do the things necessary to win as was done at the apex of America's power. We don't have leadership or people in charge anymore capable of making those cruel and efficient decisions with a focus on winning. We lost that ability during Vietnam when the American people as a group became anti-war and no longer wanted to participate in world changing wars.

Leadership needs to accept the change in the attitude of the American people and not get us involved in any more of these garbage wars that accomplish nothing. If you don't have the will of your people to enact permanent change using harsh violent means against armed resistance that doesn't want you there, you shouldn't be involving yourself in the conflict.

[Aseahawkfan]

You watching this hawktawk? Looks like Vietnam all over again with people running for the door before the Taliban gets in there.

Another example of the American people allowing their nation to go to war, winning the military battle, then losing their will to continue fighting just like Vietnam. We absolutely crushed the North Vietnamese on the battlefield during The Tet Offensive, but the American people lost the will to fight and abandoned Vietnam. Now here we are doing it again in Afghanistan.

We really need to stop getting in these foreign wars we don't plan to finish. We just leave with a new administration due to people viewing the war as "unpopular" with some new administration abandoning the people who backed us and expected us to back them as we leave them to fall to their enemies.

It makes you sick to be an American right now and watch yet another abandonment of our ally due to the fickle nature of American politics. Ever since Vietnam the American people learned to quit fighting rather than finish the job.

[MackStrongIsMyHero]

Some of you guys are old enough to remember these things first hand, but both Vietnam and Afghanistan have always seemed to be black holes for foreign occupation. It seems like North Vietnam had a very “threaten me with a good time” attitude towards US involvement. They had already showed their resolve in dealing with French before WWII, the Japanese during, and then the French again. I think I remember Giap being quoted about giving the US 20 years of war if that what it took. Afghanistan ran the British out of town and then became Russia’s own personal version of Vietnam. I don’t know what is in the water there or honestly what it is that allows their leaders to mobilize their people so well, but these two nations have not been willing to lay down for anybody for a long time.

[RiverDog]

The fall of Saigon is exactly what this current situation in Kabul reminds me of. I saw images this morning of people rushing passenger jets in an attempt to board and leave the country, and it reminded me of people hanging off helicopters on the roof of the American embassy in Saigon.

This is going very badly for Biden. It's apparent that we were not ready for a complete withdrawal, and whether it was his fault or not, he's going to have to take the blame. His only two choices now are to bring armed troops back into Kabul and restore order and stay for another year or so, or just bail and leave like we did in Vietnam. Neither option is a very good choice.

We've had a decidedly mixed record at nation building. We were wildly successful following the conclusion of WW2 and the Korean War as all the countries we occupied, ie Germany, Italy, Japan, and South Korea, are all functioning democracies with vibrant economies and are grateful allies of ours. But since then, particularly in Vietnam and now Afghanistan, it's gone very badly. I suppose you could say that the jury is still out in the case of Iraq, but from what I've heard, it's worse off now than it was during Saddam's regime.

It sucks being the world's policeman, but I don't really know what the alternative is. Pull back and don't get involved in any international dispute? If we disengage, then who fills the void? The Chinese? The Russians? Or do you put your faith into the UN? NATO in some instances? I honestly don't have a good answer.

[NorthHawk]

The difference in WWII is we knew the culture in Europe and the Japanese people would do anything the Emperor said so they
were both primed to accept help and a new way. As well with Germany they just had to look at the Soviet side to see which was
better for them. S. Korea was interesting in that they didn't have the same challenges as Japan, but did have the same fear of
the communists. This is a simplistic explanation for the end of WWII and the Korean war, but it does set the stage for comparisons
to Afghanistan which is a completely different culture and tradition. One of our blind spots in the west is thinking everyone wants
to be "Free", but we see freedom differently than others might. It's a terrible thing for the generation that grew up without the
Taliban and were educated with western ideals, but the population as a whole (outside of major cities at least)did not embrace
the changes offered by America and its allies. So what we see are a people that are divided and easily conquered by the returning
Taliban forces. Again, a simplistic and incomplete explanation that will in time be studied and fuller and better explanations will
be offered by scholars and historians.

[RiverDog]

The difference in WWII is we knew the culture in Europe and the Japanese people would do anything the Emperor said so they
were both primed to accept help and a new way. As well with Germany they just had to look at the Soviet side to see which was
better for them. S. Korea was interesting in that they didn't have the same challenges as Japan, but did have the same fear of
the communists. This is a simplistic explanation for the end of WWII and the Korean war, but it does set the stage for
to Afghanistan which is a completely different culture and tradition. One of our blind spots in the west is thinking everyone wants
to be "Free", but we see freedom differently than others might. It's a terrible thing for the generation that grew up without the
Taliban and were educated with western ideals, but the population as a whole (outside of major cities at least)did not embrace
the changes offered by America and its allies. So what we see are a people that are divided and easily conquered by the returning
Taliban forces. Again, a simplistic and incomplete explanation that will in time be studied and fuller and better explanations will
be offered by scholars and historians.

That was the problem in Vietnam. LBJ was a wheeler dealer, negotiator type of politician who thought he could make some sort of "I'll scratch your back and you scratch mine" type of arrangement, build them schools, hospitals, dams, et al in exchange for an accommodation and didn't understand the mindset of a revolutionary like Ho Chi Minh, that there was no bargaining with him, that the only satisfactory conclusion for him was an immediate and complete American withdrawal and a unified Vietnam under his rule, which is exactly what happened.

Both this war and the one in Iraq were started during what in retrospect was fear and hysteria following 9/11, that the terrorist attack was just the beginning of an all out war against us by Islamic extremists. Both had the support of the American people and all the major politicians on both sides of the aisle, including Hilary, Kerry, et al. It's pretty clear now that it was a mistake, but we have the advantage of 20/20 hindsight.

[Aseahawkfan]

Some of you guys are old enough to remember these things first hand, but both Vietnam and Afghanistan have always seemed to be black holes for foreign occupation. It seems like North Vietnam had a very “threaten me with a good time” attitude towards US involvement. They had already showed their resolve in dealing with French before WWII, the Japanese during, and then the French again. I think I remember Giap being quoted about giving the US 20 years of war if that what it took. Afghanistan ran the British out of town and then became Russia’s own personal version of Vietnam. I don’t know what is in the water there or honestly what it is that allows their leaders to mobilize their people so well, but these two nations have not been willing to lay down for anybody for a long time.

America really had no plan with Vietnam. The only reason we were there was to help the French, though publicly the American people were sold we were fighting Communism. But we started out as advisers assisting the stabilization of a French colony after World War 2. The French and English had been pummeled after World War 2. France wanted to hold its Vietnam colony. America agreed to help. There is even evidence Ho Chi Minh came to America first to push out the French, but America refused to provide the help due to its alliance with France. So we ended up taking over in Vietnam with China funding the North Vietnamese. We beat them militarily, but the American people did not want to continue. So just like Afghanistan, we organized a pull out and left the South Vietnamese to suffer like we are leaving the Afghans that supported us to suffer.

You will notice in both Vietnam and Afghanistan, we made a withdrawal agreement. Neither Vietnam nor Afghanistan forced us out militarily contrary to what some want to purport. We could have kept fighting in both instances and the enemy had little chance of beating us militarily. The casualties for the enemy in both wars was many times higher than our own. Their defeats were numerous and well documented. But a war is less about the power of your military and more about the will of your people to carry that war on. If the people don't feel there is a good reason to carry it on, then you get what you're seeing now which is how we do things after Vietnam. We start a war under the pretense of some threat, hammer the enemy, sell our people we're making progress, have no real plan for what we do with the land, get bored and tired of the war, and pull out screwing over our allies. It's become the American Way of War.

In America the people have power. They grow weary of war in foreign nations. They elect new administrations that agree to end the war. When your administrations and people change their minds like ours do and get sold going to war under false pretenses, you don't have a very committed war will.

We really need to stop having these foreign wars. We don't have the type of government or people that like going to foreign wars. All we do is go in, tear apart their house, prop up some weak leader, then leave after our people decide they've been there too long and it's no longer worthwhile to invest in the war. It would have been better had we not gone at all.

I work with Afghans and know quite a few. They are devastated right now and worried about their families. The Taliban are cruel and treat women as badly as a regime can treat them. Afghanistan is about to be tossed back to the dark ages yet again.

[MackStrongIsMyHero]

No, the US was never defeated militarily, but North Vietnam was also never really beaten. Their resolve to fight and wait it out was nigh unshakeable. The Taliban never defeated the US but they also weren’t beaten. And neither regime cares what their people think. But you’re right, I don’t think our citizens will ever be okay with the amount of effort it would really take to have changed those nations, but whatever that effort actually would be.

My brother was over there as protection detail for an agriculture mission. We were providing a people who aren’t used to mechanization and don’t have the infrastructure to maintain it with tractors and other powered equipment. Seems like you miss the mark when you can’t provide help that is sustainable.

[RiverDog]

Yea, lots of parallels between Afghanistan and Vietnam. We didn't expect the Afghans to cave like they did, just as we thought that South Vietnam could manage the country on their own. I just read an article where the Taliban has already rewarded a number of their fighters by giving them pre-arranged marriages with teenage girls. Over 50% of the Afghan population is 19 or younger and essentially grew up in a free world. Now they're going to be subjected to a repressive regime. No wonder there was a near riot at the Kabul airport.

Sad, sad situation. I agree with Biden on removing troops, but the human tragedy is going to be awful.

[Aseahawkfan]

No, the US was never defeated militarily, but North Vietnam was also never really beaten. Their resolve to fight and wait it out was nigh unshakeable. The Taliban never defeated the US but they also weren’t beaten. And neither regime cares what their people think. But you’re right, I don’t think our citizens will ever be okay with the amount of effort it would really take to have changed those nations, but whatever that effort actually would be.

My brother was over there as protection detail for an agriculture mission. We were providing a people who aren’t used to mechanization and don’t have the infrastructure to maintain it with tractors and other powered equipment. Seems like you miss the mark when you can’t provide help that is sustainable.

The same could be said of the Germans, Japanese, or Koreans. They could have held out if they chose to, but we did things to them to break them that we cannot do now and that Americans lost their stomach for during Vietnam. We have fought far stronger nations than Vietnam or Afghanistan. People don't understand war requires extremely cruel methods to win. We used to do those things. People don't think about how Americans have won wars whether the firebombing and nuking of Japan or what the Russians did entering Germany. Or taking such control of a region that you settle things through killing the opponent, not negotiating.

We very much could have broken the North Vietnamese and Taliban, but the methods to do were no longer palatable to the American people. British people felt the same way as time went on as well. I was reading that Winston Churchill was very pro the use the poisonous gas because of its effectiveness in warfare, but the British people and many opposing British politicians did not want to use it. It is similar in Vietnam. Once the film came back of us using weapons like napalm, mustard gas, and the new weapons of war, the American people felt like that was not in line with their values. But that is how you break enemies like the Taliban and North Vietnamese, you outlaw their existence and destroy them nearly to a man. We don't have that kind of war will in the modern day.

The world has changed. The European based civilizations are no longer insane conquerors and colonists who murder an entire people to take control of a land if necessary. Even the American military isn't as cruel as it once was when they were driving natives off their land, Sherman's march to the sea during The Civil War, bombing the living crap out of the Japanese including using nukes, and the like. We're not those people willing to do those things to win.

But the Taliban and North Vietnamese are still those people. The NVA would kill without mercy people assisting the U.S. They would hang or murder traitors. Wipe out villages. Engage in human bombs within civilian areas. The Taliban is the same.

It's time for America to admit it is no longer that military that could do the stomach churning acts to beat a force like the Vietnamese or Taliban and stay out of their areas. I read up on Iraq even and the insurgent would use their own women and children as human shields. This isn't me painting these folks in a bad light, this is documented reality of fighting in these nations. If someone is willing to sacrifice their women and children to win, then what must you do to beat them?

America needs to mind its business unless it is doing something small like pushing Saddam out of Kuwait or opening the Strait of Hormuz. No more of these foreign wars with these half-hearted attempts at nation building. If the people are fully committed to fighting against you, you can't enter that war with a half-hearted plan to nation build. You'll lose your war will every time if you do things that way.

[Aseahawkfan]

Yea, lots of parallels between Afghanistan and Vietnam. We didn't expect the Afghans to cave like they did, just as we thought that South Vietnam could manage the country on their own. I just read an article where the Taliban has already rewarded a number of their fighters by giving them pre-arranged marriages with teenage girls. Over 50% of the Afghan population is 19 or younger and essentially grew up in a free world. Now they're going to be subjected to a repressive regime. No wonder there was a near riot at the Kabul airport.

Sad, sad situation. I agree with Biden on removing troops, but the human tragedy is going to be awful.

It was never going to be anything other than awful unless we stayed there forever. Americans would never commit to such a course of action.

[RiverDog]

It was never going to be anything other than awful unless we stayed there forever. Americans would never commit to such a course of action.

With 70% of the population 25 and younger, 20 years is "forever" for a lot of people. But I agree that there probably wasn't a good time to leave, just some that weren't as bad as others. We probably should have bailed after we killed OBL as that would have given us a little more of a moral reason to pull out, but again, that's hindsight.

Biden chose to do it now as this is not an election year and I suspect that one of his reasons for sticking to his guns rather than going back and re-securing the country to make a more orderly withdrawal is because he wants to keep the issue from spilling over into the midterms. Get the political damage over with so they have a year to recover from it and to hell with all those innocent people that are scared out of their minds. The next thing we'll get treated to is the execution of the thousands of Afghans that cooperated with the Americans.

The human tragedy is going to hurt Biden big time. Combine Afghanistan with the situation on the southern border and the problems in the Caribbean, the resurgence of the coronavirus/vaccine hesitancy and he's pretty overwhelmed at the moment. Even though a lot of those problems, if not all of them, aren't his fault, he is the leader of the country and people are going to hold him accountable. He's going to have to make one heck of a rebound over the next 14 months if he doesn't want to get his ass kicked in the midterms.

[NorthHawk]

The thing about Afghanistan is they've never had a real strong central Gov't. Even when the Taliban was in place prior to 911, there were warring factions within the country.
What we did was try to set up a central Gov't and Armed Forces without taking into account the historical, cultural, and political realities of that country in favor of trying to
set up a system that was similar to us. It was then looked upon in many areas as an occupying force and with the Afghani peoples fierce desire to be autonomous it's only
natural that they wouldn't fully commit. Add in the Taliban presence that never left and the peoples of the region would never be fully on board with a corrupt federal Gov't.

[RiverDog]

The thing about Afghanistan is they've never had a real strong central Gov't. Even when the Taliban was in place prior to 911, there were warring factions within the country.
What we did was try to set up a central Gov't and Armed Forces without taking into account the historical, cultural, and political realities of that country in favor of trying to
set up a system that was similar to us. It was then looked upon in many areas as an occupying force and with the Afghani peoples fierce desire to be autonomous it's only
natural that they wouldn't fully commit. Add in the Taliban presence that never left and the peoples of the region would never be fully on board with a corrupt federal Gov't.

That's very similar to the situation in Vietnam. The South Vietnamese army wasn't fighting just the NVA, they were fighting the Viet Cong.

It's too bad that we don't have a strong international organization so the US didn't have to be the world's policeman. The United Nations is nothing more than a glorified debating society.

[Hawktawk]

Biden stayed on Trumps timetable but made the decision to wait and see how the power struggle went before beginning mass withdrawals . His comments were profound and recognized that the existing govt did not want to spread panic. A miscalculation that will forever be another stain on our legacy . But point being a trillion in our grandkids money , many billions in state of the art equipment , developing and training a 300K army (larger than many allied forces . And they rolled over in many cases without firing a shot , accepted massive bribes , handed over us weaponry . This is a bipartisan f up of biblical proportions and it’s on Biden’s watch . His decision to stay in Delaware on summer vacation was a bad look and his slow decision making cost precious time . But make no mistake of assuming Cheeto would have fared any better based on his track record of destabilizing the Middle East . No more nation building .

[NorthHawk]

I think Biden's mistake was not getting people out earlier - and notifying the other nations of that intent. They knew America was withdrawing, but I'm sure not the timetable
and with some reports of the Afghans waking up the next morning and all of the Americans gone without their knowledge suggests that the allies in this probably didn't know
either. Now we have a situation where all other nations are scrambling to get not only their citizens out but also those Afghans who helped them the last 20 years. Had Biden
extended the timetable another month, I think there would be less chaos with internationals documenting and confirming who those people are which would also be better for
the US amidst the chaos that would inevitably happen from ordinary citizens wanting to escape.

[NorthHawk]

It's too bad that we don't have a strong international organization so the US didn't have to be the world's policeman. The United Nations is nothing more than a glorified debating society.

True, but what's also true is the most powerful nations by default become the worlds leader and policemen. The most powerful gets to shape or influence the shape of the world into their image of
a proper society and lesser nations that basically agree with that direction follow and others with competing agendas oppose in many ways.

[RiverDog]

I think Biden's mistake was not getting people out earlier - and notifying the other nations of that intent. They knew America was withdrawing, but I'm sure not the timetable
and with some reports of the Afghans waking up the next morning and all of the Americans gone without their knowledge suggests that the allies in this probably didn't know
either. Now we have a situation where all other nations are scrambling to get not only their citizens out but also those Afghans who helped them the last 20 years. Had Biden
extended the timetable another month, I think there would be less chaos with internationals documenting and confirming who those people are which would also be better for
the US amidst the chaos that would inevitably happen from ordinary citizens wanting to escape.

Notifying other nations of our timetable would be notifying the Taliban as well. Their mistake wasn't in failing to notify our allies, the mistake was in over estimating the Afghan's resistance to the Taliban.

Biden is being faced with the same problem Jimmy Carter was when the American embassy in Tehran was overrun and hostages taken. Should Carter have read the writing on the wall and evacuated the embassy sooner? Of course, he should have. Carter looked horribly inept during the crisis and it cost him his job, just like Biden is looking incompetent in the current situation and it may end up costing him a 2nd term.

The one difference between Iran in 1979 and Afghanistan in 2021 is that we did not have hardly any intelligence resources in Iran whereas we had an entire network of them in Afghanistan. It's hard to believe that they would misjudge the resistance to the Taliban that badly. This is an intelligence failure as much as it is a political one. Biden was relying on the CIA to give him an accurate estimation of how big of a window he had.

[Hawktawk]

The fact that so many are saying we should have evacuated sooner makes clear we knew the Taliban would eventually win. The speed of the takeover was what was stunning , the greatest miscalculation by Biden .Sounds to me the only difference with Trumps plan was an earlier withdrawal of civilians but remember his plan left 2500 US troops, inadequate to hold off the Taliban while freeing over twice as many Taliban from prison, ,5500 who are all on the battlefield now Im sure....those were unforced concessions with obviously no concrete agreements as we now see.

And it was only possible against 300K security forces carrying superior weapons and training due to mass defections and surrender without fighting at all. They responded a lot worse than Biden. I dont like like his response but Afghans who have allowed terrorists to have safe harbor for decades need to look squarely in the mirror. The cancer that is the most radical form of Islam is why we had to go there in the first place, the reason we stayed as long as we did. The cowardice of the Afghan citizens and their inability to fight for themselves is why we should never go back to any nation to build it in our image. As much as I didn't support Obama his strategy of pulling boots off the ground and droning the worst terrorists might have worked the best,

[NorthHawk]

My understanding is that American forces were providing logistics for the Afghan Army. When that capability was removed, they went into disarray and lost
their morale. Add into it the Gov't fleeing Afghanistan and you can see how the soldiers might be wondering why they should fight.

Regarding the Taliban knowing when the US was leaving, it wouldn't matter. They would never take on the American forces or Afghan Army until that support
was removed so when it happened they were emboldened. Biden should have known how many Afghan people helped the Allies and worked hard to remove them
before pulling out thus lessening the chaos and political fallout at home.

[Hawktawk]

My bottom line it wasn’t gonna be pretty . It was a stroke of accidental genius for Trump to wind up kicking the can into 2021 cause this is on Biden but I rather doubt it would have gone a lot better with trumps middle eastern track record . Don’t forget his snap decision to abandon northern Syria which created a slaughter of Kurds who had helped in a much more recent fight with isis . It created such a power vacuum we wound up having to quietly sneak a mechanized division back in .how is that much different ?

How about droning an Iranian general leading to a ballistic missile strike on our troops , nuclear armed B52s locked and loaded in Diego Garcia and the Middle East on the brink of war .

I really dislike this response by Biden , by America , by politician now on their soap box . But to say it would have been better is not knowable . What is knowable is coronavirus would have gone far better had Biden (or Hilary ) been president then …

[Aseahawkfan]

The fact that we had to negotiate with The Taliban to begin with was a clear sign that things we're going to go badly no matter when we left. If you can't say The Taliban is destroyed and you have to negotiate a ceasefire with the main enemy in the country, then the Afghan Army doesn't have much control.

I learned a lot about Afghanistan from my coworkers. That nation has too many foreign interests in their yard and too much internal fighting to hope to have stability any time soon. They are an example of when tribal identity becoming greater than national identity leads to major problems within a nation.

[RiverDog]

Wow, did I have it wrong about it being an intelligence failure:

Classified assessments by American spy agencies over the summer painted an increasingly grim picture of the prospect of a Taliban takeover of Afghanistan and warned of the rapid collapse of the Afghan military, even as President Biden and his advisers said publicly that was unlikely to happen as quickly, according to current and former American government officials.

By July, many intelligence reports grew more pessimistic, questioning whether any Afghan security forces would muster serious resistance and whether the government could hold on in Kabul, the capital. President Biden said on July 8 that the Afghan government was unlikely to fall and that there would be no chaotic evacuations of Americans similar to the end of the Vietnam War.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/in ... cid=msnews

If that's correct, that Biden and his advisors had been told by our intelligence community that something like we're seeing today was likely to happen, then it's going to give him a huge black eye, perhaps carry through to the next election. Again, assuming the article is correct, the man is truly incompetent.

This is something that I would expect out of Donald Trump, a man known for not even reading intelligence briefings and doing things by the seat of the pants.

[Aseahawkfan]

Wow, did I have it wrong about it being an intelligence failure:

Classified assessments by American spy agencies over the summer painted an increasingly grim picture of the prospect of a Taliban takeover of Afghanistan and warned of the rapid collapse of the Afghan military, even as President Biden and his advisers said publicly that was unlikely to happen as quickly, according to current and former American government officials.

By July, many intelligence reports grew more pessimistic, questioning whether any Afghan security forces would muster serious resistance and whether the government could hold on in Kabul, the capital. President Biden said on July 8 that the Afghan government was unlikely to fall and that there would be no chaotic evacuations of Americans similar to the end of the Vietnam War.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/in ... cid=msnews

If that's correct, that Biden and his advisors had been told by our intelligence community that something like we're seeing today was likely to happen, then it's going to give him a huge black eye, perhaps carry through to the next election. Again, assuming the article is correct, the man is truly incompetent.

This is something that I would expect out of Donald Trump, a man known for not even reading intelligence briefings and doing things by the seat of the pants.

I heard this from the Afghans I work with. I knew this was going to go bad. One of my coworkers got his family to India well over a year ago. Most knew the security in Afghanistan was terrible. The Taliban was just sitting in the mountains waiting us out conducting the usual low intensity guerilla war the Vietnamese used to make us leave by simply waiting us out.

Vietnam pretty much set the blueprint for beating the United States.

1. You won't beat them in a straight up military fight. Their military is too powerful, well trained, and well equipped.

2. Find a good location to hide or build up.

3. Start a low intensity guerilla conflict.

4. Wait until the American people grow weary of the war, the presidency changes, when they leave take out the weak leadership they left behind.

5. Profit.

Pretty much the book for how to beat America written by Ho Chi Minh and Giap. Read by small nations everywhere to learn how to beat the big guy.

[RiverDog]

I heard this from the Afghans I work with. I knew this was going to go bad. One of my coworkers got his family to India well over a year ago. Most knew the security in Afghanistan was terrible. The Taliban was just sitting in the mountains waiting us out conducting the usual low intensity guerilla war the Vietnamese used to make us leave by simply waiting us out.

Vietnam pretty much set the blueprint for beating the United States.

1. You won't beat them in a straight up military fight. Their military is too powerful, well trained, and well equipped.

2. Find a good location to hide or build up.

3. Start a low intensity guerilla conflict.

4. Wait until the American people grow weary of the war, the presidency changes, when they leave take out the weak leadership they left behind.

5. Profit.

Pretty much the book for how to beat America written by Ho Chi Minh and Giap. Read by small nations everywhere to learn how to beat the big guy.

I'm not sure if Vietnam/Ho Chi Minh wrote the blueprint. The American Revolution against the British could be characterized in much the same fashion. We didn't beat the Brits as much as they conceded, didn't have the stomach to continue the fight. Their army wanted to go home and their government didn't want to keep pouring money into a war that was over a month's sailing time away. That's always going to be the case when you're fighting an enemy on their home turf. They are better at guerilla warfare because the know the land and can wait out their enemy. Afghanistan is similar to Vietnam in that it's difficult terrain to fight in, ie mountainous country in Afghanistan and the triple canopy jungle of Vietnam.

I'm seeing a lot of complaints on social media regarding how Biden is handling the situation. This could be a watershed event for him, the silver bullet that takes him out. He obviously wanted to do it now for political reasons, to get it over with now and try not to let it be an election issue. The Republicans are licking their chops, having been handed a club with which to beat the Dems with.

[Aseahawkfan]

I'm not sure if Vietnam/Ho Chi Minh wrote the blueprint. The American Revolution against the British could be characterized in much the same fashion. We didn't beat the Brits as much as they conceded, didn't have the stomach to continue the fight. Their army wanted to go home and their government didn't want to keep pouring money into a war that was over a month's sailing time away. That's always going to be the case when you're fighting an enemy on their home turf. They are better at guerilla warfare because the know the land and can wait out their enemy. Afghanistan is similar to Vietnam in that it's difficult terrain to fight in, ie mountainous country in Afghanistan and the triple canopy jungle of Vietnam.

I'm seeing a lot of complaints on social media regarding how Biden is handling the situation. This could be a watershed event for him, the silver bullet that takes him out. He obviously wanted to do it now for political reasons, to get it over with now and try not to let it be an election issue. The Republicans are licking their chops, having been handed a club with which to beat the Dems with.

If Trump turns this into election gold in 2024, it's really going to suck. The only plus is he can only do 4 more years. If Trump were in office right now with us pulling out of Afghanistan, the press could be hammering him far worse than Biden.

It was British vs British back then. Now we're the losing British like them at the end of their empire, eh. We're on our way to that great fall from power that Great Britain had when they were the super power of the world who could truly brag "the sun never set on the British Empire." Perhaps that is the case and we are but the foil for the inevitable rise to power of China.

[Hawktawk]

Just released comments from chairman of the joint chiefs of staff Mark Milley saying there was no intelligence that predicted an 11 day takeover . Not even close . He said there were 3 potential scenarios . Civil war, negotiated settlement or governmental collapse . That scenario was predicted to be weeks to months or perhaps years. I can’t link from my phone .


But it’s really stunning to imagine 300k trained equipped troops just quitting en masse. It’s interesting China and Russia are leaving their diplomats . I think Russia’s hand in particular may be all over this . It’s a horrible look. The German defense minister called it the worst nato disaster ever .

[RiverDog]

Just released comments from chairman of the joint chiefs of staff Mark Milley saying there was no intelligence that predicted an 11 day takeover . Not even close . He said there were 3 potential scenarios . Civil war, negotiated settlement or governmental collapse . That scenario was predicted to be weeks to months or perhaps years. I can’t link from my phone .


But it’s really stunning to imagine 300k trained equipped troops just quitting en masse. It’s interesting China and Russia are leaving their diplomats . I think Russia’s hand in particular may be all over this . It’s a horrible look. The German defense minister called it the worst nato disaster ever .

There's just as much information out there that claims that the intelligence community warned of a very quick collapse. Here's one that notes that there are differences between the DOD (Milley) and the intelligence community:

“There is an old gallows humor line in intelligence. There are only two conditions in life: policy success or intel failure,” said James Clapper, former director of national intelligence (DNI) under the Obama administration.

“During the six-plus years I was DNI, the IC [intelligence community] consistently assessed the Afghan government and the Afghan military and security forces with a much more pessimistic outlook than did DOD generally, and [the International Security Assistance Force] specifically. Invariably, we were criticized for being too negative, uninformed or both,” he said.

https://thehill.com/policy/national-sec ... r-scrutiny

[Aseahawkfan]

Why was I literally expecting this without the help of expensive military intelligence agencies? I've been expecting this. It must be because I work with people from Afghanistan and know quite a few Afghans and they kept me apprised of the situation there. They even told me if America leaves, The Taliban is coming back. If I'm getting that kind of intelligence directly from Afghans I work with months prior to this happening, then I'm not sure how our intel and military community could have expected any other outcome.

There was never any positive attitude by the Afghans I work with that things were going to go well if America left, zero. Not a one of the seven guys I know and worked with were happy with America leaving, not one of them said, "Yeah, we'll be fine when America leaves." Every one of them was telling me as soon as America leaves, The Taliban is returning.

If they all knew that, how could we not know that? C'mon now. We knew what was going to happen. We knew it the moment we decided to leave. It was never going to be otherwise if after 20 years the Afghans were not confident holding their nation.

[RiverDog]

Why was I literally expecting this without the help of expensive military intelligence agencies? I've been expecting this. It must be because I work with people from Afghanistan and know quite a few Afghans and they kept me apprised of the situation there. They even told me if America leaves, The Taliban is coming back. If I'm getting that kind of intelligence directly from Afghans I work with months prior to this happening, then I'm not sure how our intel and military community could have expected any other outcome.

There was never any positive attitude by the Afghans I work with that things were going to go well if America left, zero. Not a one of the seven guys I know and worked with were happy with America leaving, not one of them said, "Yeah, we'll be fine when America leaves." Every one of them was telling me as soon as America leaves, The Taliban is returning.

If they all knew that, how could we not know that? C'mon now. We knew what was going to happen. We knew it the moment we decided to leave. It was never going to be otherwise if after 20 years the Afghans were not confident holding their nation.

The question wasn't if the Taliban was going to take over, the question was how long would it take. Biden and Company are saying that they thought it would take 6-9 months, the intelligence community was much more pessimistic.

As with everything else, we'll see Congress taking very predictable sides, the Republicans taking the side of the intelligence community, the Democrats on the side of the DOD/Biden. But the bottom line is that this happened on Biden's watch and he's ultimately responsible.

[Aseahawkfan]

The question wasn't if the Taliban was going to take over, the question was how long would it take. Biden and Company are saying that they thought it would take 6-9 months, the intelligence community was much more pessimistic.

As with everything else, we'll see Congress taking very predictable sides, the Republicans taking the side of the intelligence community, the Democrats on the side of the DOD/Biden. But the bottom line is that this happened on Biden's watch and he's ultimately responsible.

All I know is the Afghan guys I know were trying to get their family out of Afghanistan long before this because they knew The Taliban wasn't beaten. They were hiding in the mountains because America doesn't do what it needs to do to take out forces of this kind any more. If we had, the same whining American civilians and liberals who cry about how The Taliban is going to treat women don't have the will to beat a force like The Taliban. They think they can just talk them into giving up their violent ways or like Hanoi Jane they'll believe some guy taking them on a tour to show them what they want. People who know these types of forces know what needs to be done and it's not pretty.

So 6 to 9 months or days it don't matter, they were going to take over.

Now Trump gets to beat on Joe Biden in 2024 over Afghanistan if they don't stick something to him and right now Trump would be the one taking the hits for it if he were still in office. The gall of Fox News and the Republicans going after Biden and the Democrats when it was their guy Trump that had planned to leave anyway.

This is just another example of what I've been talking about in regards to these two parties putting on political theater when neither one of them had any plans to do anything differently that would have led to a different outcome.

Why do Americans tolerate this trash behavior by these political parties I don't know.

[Hawktawk]

Yeah but what about a nation that enjoyed 20 years of freedom , advancement of women , improved education and infrastructure , a trained and equipped 300K security force that folded like a cheap suit. That’s the story nobody is talking about . Can anyone convince me this would have been better with trump in charge ? Or Obama who probably should have declared victory and pulled the plug after bin laden was killed.Biden has said some things I agree with such as saying why should our troops fight and die for a nation whose people refuse to fight . I also agree with his statement today that there was no way to have a complete withdrawal without chaos. It’s an explanation but not an excuse . I feel in a way this doddering old man has shown some remorse , some empathy but stuck by the plan .he’s the 4th president to inherit this occupation and the first to have the nuts to actually pull the plug. I hate seeing this but one thing is for sure . There will be parents who won’t get a knock on their door . Kids who won’t get a leg blown off. He took the political hit and I think his comments have been resolute but remorseful about underestimating the talibans reach .

[Aseahawkfan]

Yeah but what about a nation that enjoyed 20 years of freedom , advancement of women , improved education and infrastructure , a trained and equipped 300K security force that folded like a cheap suit. That’s the story nobody is talking about . Can anyone convince me this would have been better with trump in charge ? Or Obama who probably should have declared victory and pulled the plug after bin laden was killed.Biden has said some things I agree with such as saying why should our troops fight and die for a nation whose people refuse to fight . I also agree with his statement today that there was no way to have a complete withdrawal without chaos. It’s an explanation but not an excuse . I feel in a way this doddering old man has shown some remorse , some empathy but stuck by the plan .he’s the 4th president to inherit this occupation and the first to have the nuts to actually pull the plug. I hate seeing this but one thing is for sure . There will be parents who won’t get a knock on their door . Kids who won’t get a leg blown off. He took the political hit and I think his comments have been resolute but remorseful about underestimating the talibans reach .

It wouldn't have been any different if Trump was in office except he would have been taking the political hits rather than Biden.

[RiverDog]

Yeah but what about a nation that enjoyed 20 years of freedom , advancement of women , improved education and infrastructure , a trained and equipped 300K security force that folded like a cheap suit. That’s the story nobody is talking about . Can anyone convince me this would have been better with trump in charge ? Or Obama who probably should have declared victory and pulled the plug after bin laden was killed.Biden has said some things I agree with such as saying why should our troops fight and die for a nation whose people refuse to fight . I also agree with his statement today that there was no way to have a complete withdrawal without chaos. It’s an explanation but not an excuse . I feel in a way this doddering old man has shown some remorse , some empathy but stuck by the plan .he’s the 4th president to inherit this occupation and the first to have the nuts to actually pull the plug. I hate seeing this but one thing is for sure . There will be parents who won’t get a knock on their door . Kids who won’t get a leg blown off. He took the political hit and I think his comments have been resolute but remorseful about underestimating the talibans reach .

It wouldn't have been any different if Trump was in office except he would have been taking the political hits rather than Biden.

It was the longest war in the history of our nation and have couldn't have gone on indefinitely. At some point, the Afghan people were going to have to stand on their own two feet. But the obvious question is could there have been a better, more rational withdrawal than this free for all that occurred?

Would the outcome been any different under Trump, Obama, Bush 43? Probably not. Who ever pulled the trigger would have stood a good chance of being blindsided by the collapse just like Biden was. But nevertheless, Biden is the man behind the desk and he has to take the blame. Combined with other events, some of his doing, some not, this makes Biden appear weak and incompetent. That's why he chose to do it now rather than a year from now, so as to get the political damage over with before next year's midterms.

I don't buy the JCS/Administrations' line about not being able to anticipate this. There's a lot of evidence out there that indicates that they knew or should have known that the Afghans would collapse very rapidly and should have prepared for the worst case scenario. It's not investigating as it's water under the bridge and we're not going back, but for sure the R's are going to want to squeeze this story for all its worth.

[Hawktawk]

I’m not sure how much traction Trump in particular will get out of this 3 years from now . It’s been repeated ad nauseum about his own actions with the withdrawal of all but 2500 troops and a may 21 deadline hamstrung Biden . I read about it at the time and there was bipartisan opposition . Biden has currently got 5 k troops there , twice what he inherited and said today they will stay longer than the deadline if needed to restore order . Hindsight will dictate whether this is a political graveyard for Biden or not . Imo
It’s kind of irrelevant because he’s not running again and my guess kamelto will have a primary challenge or 2.

I’m with Asea on this . It would not have gone different with Trump or anyone else . This is a nation of dirt poor illiterate tribes in many regions . There is no way to install western democracy . I’m curious where the massive amounts of money the Taliban used to bribe corrupt politicians and military commanders to fold came from .

It’s looking more and more like an Okey Doke, an impossible damned if you do damned if you don’t trap to utterly humiliate nato , America and Biden . It’s worked brilliantly.

[RiverDog]

I’m not sure how much traction Trump in particular will get out of this 3 years from now . It’s been repeated ad nauseum about his own actions with the withdrawal of all but 2500 troops and a may 21 deadline hamstrung Biden . I read about it at the time and there was bipartisan opposition . Biden has currently got 5 k troops there , twice what he inherited and said today they will stay longer than the deadline if needed to restore order . Hindsight will dictate whether this is a political graveyard for Biden or not . Imo
It’s kind of irrelevant because he’s not running again and my guess kamelto will have a primary challenge or 2.

Biden's job approval has slipped below 50%, which for an incumbent POTUS, is never a good sign. You're right, 3 years from now people will likely have forgotten about Afghanistan, which is why he chose to do it now during his first year in office. But if he doesn't turn things around soon, he's going to get his ass kicked in the midterms.

I’m with Asea on this . It would not have gone different with Trump or anyone else . This is a nation of dirt poor illiterate tribes in many regions . There is no way to install western democracy . I’m curious where the massive amounts of money the Taliban used to bribe corrupt politicians and military commanders to fold came from.

Probably true, but we don't know that for sure. It seems that Biden was getting bad information relayed to him if Miley and others in the DOD were feeding him the most optimistic of scenarios. It sounds like a typical government screw up, not too unlike not being prepared for the Capitol riot.

Good point about the Taliban's money, but there's lots of it float around in the Arab world. I wouldn't be shocked if it were revealed that Saudi Arabia has ties to them. They seem to like to burn the candle at both ends.

[Hawktawk]

Dont forget about the credible reports from our intelligence that surfaced about bounties being paid to the Taliban for killing Americans . Of course Putin’s c@ckkhstr denied it. He called as many penalties on Russia in 4 years as Bill Leavy called on Pittsburgh the last 38 minutes of super bowl XLl. If they did that and I believe they did as 28 us servicemen were killed in that period of time why not give the Taliban money to bribe on their own . There are some interesting developments though . Some protests have broken out with gunfire in return . There is also indications that the northern tribes may go to war against the Taliban lending some credibility to the civil war scenario . The most reassuring thing regarding maintaining order is that we have jets screaming over Kabul 24-7 and twice as many at night . Looks like America took a standing 8 count but they aren’t counted out in terms of a more orderly withdrawal . We will see. It’s a terrible loss for NATO and Biden either way but if it’s a bloodbath with mass casualties it’s much worse . Last the Taliban are claiming more moderate governance . Early results are mixed but not promising . We will see. They are in charge because 300 afghan soldiers took the payoff or just laid down.

[RiverDog]

Dont forget about the credible reports from our intelligence that surfaced about bounties being paid to the Taliban for killing Americans . Of course Putin’s c@ckkhstr denied it. He called as many penalties on Russia in 4 years as Bill Leavy called on Pittsburgh the last 38 minutes of super bowl XLl. If they did that and I believe they did as 28 us servicemen were killed in that period of time why not give the Taliban money to bribe on their own . There are some interesting developments though . Some protests have broken out with gunfire in return . There is also indications that the northern tribes may go to war against the Taliban lending some credibility to the civil war scenario . The most reassuring thing regarding maintaining order is that we have jets screaming over Kabul 24-7 and twice as many at night . Looks like America took a standing 8 count but they aren’t counted out in terms of a more orderly withdrawal . We will see. It’s a terrible loss for NATO and Biden either way but if it’s a bloodbath with mass casualties it’s much worse . Last the Taliban are claiming more moderate governance . Early results are mixed but not promising . We will see. They are in charge because 300 afghan soldiers took the payoff or just laid down.

Yeah, and China has been buddying up to the Taliban as well. Anything to be a pain in the butt for us.

[Aseahawkfan]

It was the longest war in the history of our nation and have couldn't have gone on indefinitely. At some point, the Afghan people were going to have to stand on their own two feet. But the obvious question is could there have been a better, more rational withdrawal than this free for all that occurred?

Would the outcome been any different under Trump, Obama, Bush 43? Probably not. Who ever pulled the trigger would have stood a good chance of being blindsided by the collapse just like Biden was. But nevertheless, Biden is the man behind the desk and he has to take the blame. Combined with other events, some of his doing, some not, this makes Biden appear weak and incompetent. That's why he chose to do it now rather than a year from now, so as to get the political damage over with before next year's midterms.

I don't buy the JCS/Administrations' line about not being able to anticipate this. There's a lot of evidence out there that indicates that they knew or should have known that the Afghans would collapse very rapidly and should have prepared for the worst case scenario. It's not investigating as it's water under the bridge and we're not going back, but for sure the R's are going to want to squeeze this story for all its worth.

How long did we govern Japan? How long did we keep troops in Japan, Germany, and South Korea? So not sure why you think we would have had to bring them home. You know the answer to those questions: we still have troops in Japan, Germany, and South Korea.

The fact is we don't have the war will we had back during those wars against even stronger enemies. Vietnam killed America's ability to wage war and nation build. We could well have set up a similar situation to South Korea in Vietnam if the American population didn't demand our removal from Vietnam. It's been the same with any war we've had since then. We should have been able to establish a base and partition Afghanistan if necessary to hold the nation, but Americans don't have that kind of war will any more.

People who don't study warfare just like to make it seem like America lost the Vietnam War as in we were beaten militarily, but that wasn't the case. I used to believe that garbage when I was younger. Once you study American military policy, it was Vietnam that changed everything. The American people started protesting wars and painting the American military as the bad guys same as they're doing with the cops right now. It made American politicians change the policy of how we do things.

Americans don't want to nation build any longer. They sent the message loud and clear during Vietnam. Which is why I'm not sure why politicians like Bush Jr aren't getting the message and why they won't stop sending us into foreign wars they know the American people will not sustain long enough to finish off opponents like the Taliban. You have to establish a base and control the region for multiple generations until you breed out the insurgents or at the very least establish a clear border where they know that crossing it will cost them everything.

It's absolutely obvious this is what happened, but people want to debate it like it's something else. It's very clear the American people do not want us building bases and maintaining a presence in other regions of the world to establish military dominance unless it's low cost and we're invited. You probably watched this change in the American people while you were growing up just like you're watching the anti-police movement now with similar vilification of the police.