NorthHawk wrote:The difference in WWII is we knew the culture in Europe and the Japanese people would do anything the Emperor said so they
were both primed to accept help and a new way. As well with Germany they just had to look at the Soviet side to see which was
better for them. S. Korea was interesting in that they didn't have the same challenges as Japan, but did have the same fear of
the communists. This is a simplistic explanation for the end of WWII and the Korean war, but it does set the stage for
to Afghanistan which is a completely different culture and tradition. One of our blind spots in the west is thinking everyone wants
to be "Free", but we see freedom differently than others might. It's a terrible thing for the generation that grew up without the
Taliban and were educated with western ideals, but the population as a whole (outside of major cities at least)did not embrace
the changes offered by America and its allies. So what we see are a people that are divided and easily conquered by the returning
Taliban forces. Again, a simplistic and incomplete explanation that will in time be studied and fuller and better explanations will
be offered by scholars and historians.
MackStrongIsMyHero wrote:Some of you guys are old enough to remember these things first hand, but both Vietnam and Afghanistan have always seemed to be black holes for foreign occupation. It seems like North Vietnam had a very “threaten me with a good time” attitude towards US involvement. They had already showed their resolve in dealing with French before WWII, the Japanese during, and then the French again. I think I remember Giap being quoted about giving the US 20 years of war if that what it took. Afghanistan ran the British out of town and then became Russia’s own personal version of Vietnam. I don’t know what is in the water there or honestly what it is that allows their leaders to mobilize their people so well, but these two nations have not been willing to lay down for anybody for a long time.
MackStrongIsMyHero wrote:No, the US was never defeated militarily, but North Vietnam was also never really beaten. Their resolve to fight and wait it out was nigh unshakeable. The Taliban never defeated the US but they also weren’t beaten. And neither regime cares what their people think. But you’re right, I don’t think our citizens will ever be okay with the amount of effort it would really take to have changed those nations, but whatever that effort actually would be.
My brother was over there as protection detail for an agriculture mission. We were providing a people who aren’t used to mechanization and don’t have the infrastructure to maintain it with tractors and other powered equipment. Seems like you miss the mark when you can’t provide help that is sustainable.
RiverDog wrote:Yea, lots of parallels between Afghanistan and Vietnam. We didn't expect the Afghans to cave like they did, just as we thought that South Vietnam could manage the country on their own. I just read an article where the Taliban has already rewarded a number of their fighters by giving them pre-arranged marriages with teenage girls. Over 50% of the Afghan population is 19 or younger and essentially grew up in a free world. Now they're going to be subjected to a repressive regime. No wonder there was a near riot at the Kabul airport.
Sad, sad situation. I agree with Biden on removing troops, but the human tragedy is going to be awful.
Aseahawkfan wrote:It was never going to be anything other than awful unless we stayed there forever. Americans would never commit to such a course of action.
NorthHawk wrote:The thing about Afghanistan is they've never had a real strong central Gov't. Even when the Taliban was in place prior to 911, there were warring factions within the country.
What we did was try to set up a central Gov't and Armed Forces without taking into account the historical, cultural, and political realities of that country in favor of trying to
set up a system that was similar to us. It was then looked upon in many areas as an occupying force and with the Afghani peoples fierce desire to be autonomous it's only
natural that they wouldn't fully commit. Add in the Taliban presence that never left and the peoples of the region would never be fully on board with a corrupt federal Gov't.
It's too bad that we don't have a strong international organization so the US didn't have to be the world's policeman. The United Nations is nothing more than a glorified debating society.
NorthHawk wrote:I think Biden's mistake was not getting people out earlier - and notifying the other nations of that intent. They knew America was withdrawing, but I'm sure not the timetable
and with some reports of the Afghans waking up the next morning and all of the Americans gone without their knowledge suggests that the allies in this probably didn't know
either. Now we have a situation where all other nations are scrambling to get not only their citizens out but also those Afghans who helped them the last 20 years. Had Biden
extended the timetable another month, I think there would be less chaos with internationals documenting and confirming who those people are which would also be better for
the US amidst the chaos that would inevitably happen from ordinary citizens wanting to escape.
RiverDog wrote:Wow, did I have it wrong about it being an intelligence failure:
Classified assessments by American spy agencies over the summer painted an increasingly grim picture of the prospect of a Taliban takeover of Afghanistan and warned of the rapid collapse of the Afghan military, even as President Biden and his advisers said publicly that was unlikely to happen as quickly, according to current and former American government officials.
By July, many intelligence reports grew more pessimistic, questioning whether any Afghan security forces would muster serious resistance and whether the government could hold on in Kabul, the capital. President Biden said on July 8 that the Afghan government was unlikely to fall and that there would be no chaotic evacuations of Americans similar to the end of the Vietnam War.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/in ... cid=msnews
If that's correct, that Biden and his advisors had been told by our intelligence community that something like we're seeing today was likely to happen, then it's going to give him a huge black eye, perhaps carry through to the next election. Again, assuming the article is correct, the man is truly incompetent.
This is something that I would expect out of Donald Trump, a man known for not even reading intelligence briefings and doing things by the seat of the pants.
Aseahawkfan wrote:I heard this from the Afghans I work with. I knew this was going to go bad. One of my coworkers got his family to India well over a year ago. Most knew the security in Afghanistan was terrible. The Taliban was just sitting in the mountains waiting us out conducting the usual low intensity guerilla war the Vietnamese used to make us leave by simply waiting us out.
Vietnam pretty much set the blueprint for beating the United States.
1. You won't beat them in a straight up military fight. Their military is too powerful, well trained, and well equipped.
2. Find a good location to hide or build up.
3. Start a low intensity guerilla conflict.
4. Wait until the American people grow weary of the war, the presidency changes, when they leave take out the weak leadership they left behind.
5. Profit.
Pretty much the book for how to beat America written by Ho Chi Minh and Giap. Read by small nations everywhere to learn how to beat the big guy.
RiverDog wrote:I'm not sure if Vietnam/Ho Chi Minh wrote the blueprint. The American Revolution against the British could be characterized in much the same fashion. We didn't beat the Brits as much as they conceded, didn't have the stomach to continue the fight. Their army wanted to go home and their government didn't want to keep pouring money into a war that was over a month's sailing time away. That's always going to be the case when you're fighting an enemy on their home turf. They are better at guerilla warfare because the know the land and can wait out their enemy. Afghanistan is similar to Vietnam in that it's difficult terrain to fight in, ie mountainous country in Afghanistan and the triple canopy jungle of Vietnam.
I'm seeing a lot of complaints on social media regarding how Biden is handling the situation. This could be a watershed event for him, the silver bullet that takes him out. He obviously wanted to do it now for political reasons, to get it over with now and try not to let it be an election issue. The Republicans are licking their chops, having been handed a club with which to beat the Dems with.
Hawktawk wrote:Just released comments from chairman of the joint chiefs of staff Mark Milley saying there was no intelligence that predicted an 11 day takeover . Not even close . He said there were 3 potential scenarios . Civil war, negotiated settlement or governmental collapse . That scenario was predicted to be weeks to months or perhaps years. I can’t link from my phone .
But it’s really stunning to imagine 300k trained equipped troops just quitting en masse. It’s interesting China and Russia are leaving their diplomats . I think Russia’s hand in particular may be all over this . It’s a horrible look. The German defense minister called it the worst nato disaster ever .
Aseahawkfan wrote:Why was I literally expecting this without the help of expensive military intelligence agencies? I've been expecting this. It must be because I work with people from Afghanistan and know quite a few Afghans and they kept me apprised of the situation there. They even told me if America leaves, The Taliban is coming back. If I'm getting that kind of intelligence directly from Afghans I work with months prior to this happening, then I'm not sure how our intel and military community could have expected any other outcome.
There was never any positive attitude by the Afghans I work with that things were going to go well if America left, zero. Not a one of the seven guys I know and worked with were happy with America leaving, not one of them said, "Yeah, we'll be fine when America leaves." Every one of them was telling me as soon as America leaves, The Taliban is returning.
If they all knew that, how could we not know that? C'mon now. We knew what was going to happen. We knew it the moment we decided to leave. It was never going to be otherwise if after 20 years the Afghans were not confident holding their nation.
RiverDog wrote:The question wasn't if the Taliban was going to take over, the question was how long would it take. Biden and Company are saying that they thought it would take 6-9 months, the intelligence community was much more pessimistic.
As with everything else, we'll see Congress taking very predictable sides, the Republicans taking the side of the intelligence community, the Democrats on the side of the DOD/Biden. But the bottom line is that this happened on Biden's watch and he's ultimately responsible.
Hawktawk wrote:Yeah but what about a nation that enjoyed 20 years of freedom , advancement of women , improved education and infrastructure , a trained and equipped 300K security force that folded like a cheap suit. That’s the story nobody is talking about . Can anyone convince me this would have been better with trump in charge ? Or Obama who probably should have declared victory and pulled the plug after bin laden was killed.Biden has said some things I agree with such as saying why should our troops fight and die for a nation whose people refuse to fight . I also agree with his statement today that there was no way to have a complete withdrawal without chaos. It’s an explanation but not an excuse . I feel in a way this doddering old man has shown some remorse , some empathy but stuck by the plan .he’s the 4th president to inherit this occupation and the first to have the nuts to actually pull the plug. I hate seeing this but one thing is for sure . There will be parents who won’t get a knock on their door . Kids who won’t get a leg blown off. He took the political hit and I think his comments have been resolute but remorseful about underestimating the talibans reach .
Hawktawk wrote:Yeah but what about a nation that enjoyed 20 years of freedom , advancement of women , improved education and infrastructure , a trained and equipped 300K security force that folded like a cheap suit. That’s the story nobody is talking about . Can anyone convince me this would have been better with trump in charge ? Or Obama who probably should have declared victory and pulled the plug after bin laden was killed.Biden has said some things I agree with such as saying why should our troops fight and die for a nation whose people refuse to fight . I also agree with his statement today that there was no way to have a complete withdrawal without chaos. It’s an explanation but not an excuse . I feel in a way this doddering old man has shown some remorse , some empathy but stuck by the plan .he’s the 4th president to inherit this occupation and the first to have the nuts to actually pull the plug. I hate seeing this but one thing is for sure . There will be parents who won’t get a knock on their door . Kids who won’t get a leg blown off. He took the political hit and I think his comments have been resolute but remorseful about underestimating the talibans reach .
Aseahawkfan wrote:It wouldn't have been any different if Trump was in office except he would have been taking the political hits rather than Biden.
Hawktawk wrote:I’m not sure how much traction Trump in particular will get out of this 3 years from now . It’s been repeated ad nauseum about his own actions with the withdrawal of all but 2500 troops and a may 21 deadline hamstrung Biden . I read about it at the time and there was bipartisan opposition . Biden has currently got 5 k troops there , twice what he inherited and said today they will stay longer than the deadline if needed to restore order . Hindsight will dictate whether this is a political graveyard for Biden or not . Imo
It’s kind of irrelevant because he’s not running again and my guess kamelto will have a primary challenge or 2.
Hawktawk wrote:I’m with Asea on this . It would not have gone different with Trump or anyone else . This is a nation of dirt poor illiterate tribes in many regions . There is no way to install western democracy . I’m curious where the massive amounts of money the Taliban used to bribe corrupt politicians and military commanders to fold came from.
Hawktawk wrote:Dont forget about the credible reports from our intelligence that surfaced about bounties being paid to the Taliban for killing Americans . Of course Putin’s c@ckkhstr denied it. He called as many penalties on Russia in 4 years as Bill Leavy called on Pittsburgh the last 38 minutes of super bowl XLl. If they did that and I believe they did as 28 us servicemen were killed in that period of time why not give the Taliban money to bribe on their own . There are some interesting developments though . Some protests have broken out with gunfire in return . There is also indications that the northern tribes may go to war against the Taliban lending some credibility to the civil war scenario . The most reassuring thing regarding maintaining order is that we have jets screaming over Kabul 24-7 and twice as many at night . Looks like America took a standing 8 count but they aren’t counted out in terms of a more orderly withdrawal . We will see. It’s a terrible loss for NATO and Biden either way but if it’s a bloodbath with mass casualties it’s much worse . Last the Taliban are claiming more moderate governance . Early results are mixed but not promising . We will see. They are in charge because 300 afghan soldiers took the payoff or just laid down.
RiverDog wrote:It was the longest war in the history of our nation and have couldn't have gone on indefinitely. At some point, the Afghan people were going to have to stand on their own two feet. But the obvious question is could there have been a better, more rational withdrawal than this free for all that occurred?
Would the outcome been any different under Trump, Obama, Bush 43? Probably not. Who ever pulled the trigger would have stood a good chance of being blindsided by the collapse just like Biden was. But nevertheless, Biden is the man behind the desk and he has to take the blame. Combined with other events, some of his doing, some not, this makes Biden appear weak and incompetent. That's why he chose to do it now rather than a year from now, so as to get the political damage over with before next year's midterms.
I don't buy the JCS/Administrations' line about not being able to anticipate this. There's a lot of evidence out there that indicates that they knew or should have known that the Afghans would collapse very rapidly and should have prepared for the worst case scenario. It's not investigating as it's water under the bridge and we're not going back, but for sure the R's are going to want to squeeze this story for all its worth.
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