Covid 19 .20

[RiverDog]

Yep, the gov should just mandate the vaccine. I am so tired of this damn pandemic I can’t even describe it. And I know 30 or 40% of Americans will refuse. F it. Make it happen.

Otherwise impose a two week to four week complete shut down.

If there was a way to do it, I'd be fully in support of a nation wide mandate. Everyone is damn tired of this pandemic, and I truly believe that a lot of this craziness we've seen over the past couple of years was spawned by the pandemic and our reaction to it.

Shutting the country down isn't going to work, not in a nation so used to personal freedoms as we are. We're a social species, and we'll continue to find ways to spread the disease. We're going to have to find ways to manage it.

There's a lot of informed folks that claim that once the Omicron variant runs its course, by the first of March, that the virus will become more endemic and be able to be treated like the flu. By then, we'll be getting into warmer weather and a less favorable conditions for the virus to spread. I sure hope so.

[mykc14]

Yep, the gov should just mandate the vaccine. I am so tired of this damn pandemic I can’t even describe it. And I know 30 or 40% of Americans will refuse. F it. Make it happen.

Otherwise impose a two week to four week complete shut down.

I don't see how a vaccine mandate would have changed much about our overall numbers. Open up the country. Let Onmi spread and hope that the virus has mutated to a point where it becomes the common cold/flu. I agree the mandate would reduce hospital numbers but at the end of the day the people needing hospitalization are the ones who aren't going to get vaccinated anyway. I understand that might overwhelm hospitals but the mandate also reduced staff in those hospitals where almost 30% of hospital staff across the country are not vaccinated. It would be nice to have those workers in the hospital right now, wouldn't it? Many hoped the vaccine would be the way out of this pandemic, it's not. It has served a valuable purpose but mandating it isn't going to stop this virus from spreading/mutating. If we create a broad spectrum vaccine that is effective for more than 4 months then maybe it would end this, but that is not what we have.

[RiverDog]

I don't see how a vaccine mandate would have changed much about our overall numbers. Open up the country. Let Onmi spread and hope that the virus has mutated to a point where it becomes the common cold/flu. I agree the mandate would reduce hospital numbers but at the end of the day the people needing hospitalization are the ones who aren't going to get vaccinated anyway. I understand that might overwhelm hospitals but the mandate also reduced staff in those hospitals where almost 30% of hospital staff across the country are not vaccinated. It would be nice to have those workers in the hospital right now, wouldn't it? Many hoped the vaccine would be the way out of this pandemic, it's not. It has served a valuable purpose but mandating it isn't going to stop this virus from spreading/mutating. If we create a broad spectrum vaccine that is effective for more than 4 months then maybe it would end this, but that is not what we have.

Hey, Mykc! Glad to see you posting again.

The only reason the vaccines didn't get us out of the pandemic is because not enough people took them. Had we been able to vaccinate 90-95% of the population, there wouldn't be the crisis we're facing today and we could do just as you are suggesting, ie let the virus run wild. The hospitals would not have been nearly as overwhelmed as they are now.

At this point, I'm luke warm about vaccine mandates simply because in their current state, they are unmanageable and the effectiveness of the vaccines have waned and no longer are as effective at containing the spread as they were at this time last year so there's not the same justification that once existed.

What should have happened was the same thing that happened immediately following Pearl Harbor. Early last year, the President should have called for a joint session of Congress and asked them to pass emergency legislation giving him the authority to mandate vaccines nation wide with no exceptions granted except for medical conditions. There's no way that the Supreme Court would have overruled the other two branches of government. But, of course, Congress would not have given him the authority and even if it had, with the political situation the way it is and with so many people beholden to social media, there would have been mass protests against the mandate.

It's one of the weaknesses of a free society like ours. People think that they have the right to someone else's personal space in that it's OK for them to spread their germs to others. Like an old wise man once told me: Your freedom ends where my nose begins. That's a quite literal description of the problem we had during this pandemic.

[mykc14]

Hey, Mykc! Glad to see you posting again.

The only reason the vaccines didn't get us out of the pandemic is because not enough people took them. Had we been able to vaccinate 90-95% of the population, there wouldn't be the crisis we're facing today and we could do just as you are suggesting, ie let the virus run wild. The hospitals would not have been nearly as overwhelmed as they are now.

At this point, I'm luke warm about vaccine mandates simply because in their current state, they are unmanageable and the effectiveness of the vaccines have waned and no longer are as effective at containing the spread as they were at this time last year so there's not the same justification that once existed.

What should have happened was the same thing that happened immediately following Pearl Harbor. Early last year, the President should have called for a joint session of Congress and asked them to pass emergency legislation giving him the authority to mandate vaccines nation wide with no exceptions granted except for medical conditions. There's no way that the Supreme Court would have overruled the other two branches of government. But, of course, Congress would not have given him the authority and even if it had, with the political situation the way it is and with so many people beholden to social media, there would have been mass protests against the mandate.

It's one of the weaknesses of a free society like ours. People think that they have the right to someone else's personal space in that it's OK for them to spread their germs to others. Like an old wise man once told me: Your freedom ends where my nose begins. That's a quite literal description of the problem we had during this pandemic.

Thanks, glad to be back posting! Football season is over for me (we played a playoff game in Moses Lake!) so I have more time to post now.

I don't know that we would be in a different position if we had 90-95% of the people in our country vaccinated. The variants that would have occurred still would have occurred and vaccines efficiency still would have waned. Yes, it we would have led less people in the hospitals but if you look at hospitalizations over 70% of people hospitalized were obese/overweight and 90% of people who died had 4+ comorbidities. Mandating healthy 20, 30, or 40 year old's doesn't make sense. It would if the vaccines stopped the actual spread of the virus but that clearly isn't the case right now. The bottom line is that we have a sever health crisis in our country right now and we aren't even addressing it. Vaccinate, Mask, Social Distance. This is how we were told to protect ourselves and our loved ones from COVID. No mention of exercise, eat healthy, get your weight under control, or recognizing natural immunity. Mandate vaccines for people who are overweight. Mandate people who are overweight to lose weight. Control the amount of calories and processed food at restaurants. Regulate pesticides on crops. If we do those things we won't have to worry about our hospitals becoming overwhelmed.

From the beginning of the pandemic I have known that I would encounter COVID. At first I was scared, but realized the mental health of the kids in my community was declining quickly. In my small community we had more suicides in the first 6 months of the pandemic than we had in the previous 10 years combined. I was out there coaching, opening up the weight room, giving kids the chance to do something. Somehow I avoided it for 18 months. I wore my mask all of the time and socially distanced because I didn't want to put anybody else at risk. I listened to my body. If I felt sick I would test and avoid people. Eventually I got Delta from a vaccinated friend. It was not a big deal for me or my family. I understand that it has been a HUGE deal for many families, but people who want to take the vaccine to protect themselves can do that. Address the real issues straining our health care system and I will begin to take responsibility for the risk that I pose, as a pretty healthy relatively young unvaccinated person with natural immunity, for our hospitals becoming overwhelmed.

The literal connection of our freedom ending where other's nose's begin is lost now in terms of the vaccine. It isn't doing anything to protect anybody's nose at this point.

[RiverDog]

Thanks, glad to be back posting! Football season is over for me (we played a playoff game in Moses Lake!) so I have more time to post now.

I don't know that we would be in a different position if we had 90-95% of the people in our country vaccinated. The variants that would have occurred still would have occurred and vaccines efficiency still would have waned. Yes, it we would have led less people in the hospitals but if you look at hospitalizations over 70% of people hospitalized were obese/overweight and 90% of people who died had 4+ comorbidities. Mandating healthy 20, 30, or 40 year old's doesn't make sense. It would if the vaccines stopped the actual spread of the virus but that clearly isn't the case right now. The bottom line is that we have a sever health crisis in our country right now and we aren't even addressing it. Vaccinate, Mask, Social Distance. This is how we were told to protect ourselves and our loved ones from COVID. No mention of exercise, eat healthy, get your weight under control, or recognizing natural immunity. Mandate vaccines for people who are overweight. Mandate people who are overweight to lose weight. Control the amount of calories and processed food at restaurants. Regulate pesticides on crops. If we do those things we won't have to worry about our hospitals becoming overwhelmed.

You're right, vaccinated as well as unvaccinated people can spread the virus. Studies have shown that both have similar peak viral loads. However, studies have also shown that vaccinated people do not shed the virus as long as an unvaccinated individual does, which was the basis for the NFL's difference in an unvaccinated person isolating vs one that was vaccinated.

People who are vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 but get breakthrough infections may be less likely to spread the virus because they shed it for a shorter period than unvaccinated people who are infected, according a new study led by Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.

Virus production and the duration of acute infection were similar for all of the variants. However, breakthrough infections in vaccinated individuals cleared faster — on average, in 5.5 days — than infections in unvaccinated individuals, which took an average of 7.5 days to clear.

https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/ ... ontagious/

If 90%+ of our population had taken the vaccine, there would have been far less spread of the disease and a much lower burden for our health care system.

From the beginning of the pandemic I have known that I would encounter COVID. At first I was scared, but realized the mental health of the kids in my community was declining quickly. In my small community we had more suicides in the first 6 months of the pandemic than we had in the previous 10 years combined. I was out there coaching, opening up the weight room, giving kids the chance to do something. Somehow I avoided it for 18 months. I wore my mask all of the time and socially distanced because I didn't want to put anybody else at risk. I listened to my body. If I felt sick I would test and avoid people. Eventually I got Delta from a vaccinated friend. It was not a big deal for me or my family. I understand that it has been a HUGE deal for many families, but people who want to take the vaccine to protect themselves can do that. Address the real issues straining our health care system and I will begin to take responsibility for the risk that I pose, as a pretty healthy relatively young unvaccinated person with natural immunity, for our hospitals becoming overwhelmed.

My wife and I are pretty fortunate in that regard as we're both retired and with none of our family living close by so it was pretty easy for us to self isolate. My wife has MS and rheumatoid arthritis, both auto immune diseases, so we've been very careful.

The literal connection of our freedom ending where other's nose's begin is lost now in terms of the vaccine. It isn't doing anything to protect anybody's nose at this point.

Please refer to my above comments. It is doing "something" in that it reduces the amount of time an infection is shedding virus and thus helping to reduce the spread. And even though the vaccines have lost a significant amount of their effectiveness as far as contracting the disease, they are still better than nothing. But I get your point, which is one of the reasons why I've softened my stance on mandates.

[mykc14]

You're right, vaccinated as well as unvaccinated people can spread the virus. Studies have shown that both have similar peak viral loads. However, studies have also shown that vaccinated people do not shed the virus as long as an unvaccinated individual does, which was the basis for the NFL's difference in an unvaccinated person isolating vs one that was vaccinated.

People who are vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 but get breakthrough infections may be less likely to spread the virus because they shed it for a shorter period than unvaccinated people who are infected, according a new study led by Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.

Virus production and the duration of acute infection were similar for all of the variants. However, breakthrough infections in vaccinated individuals cleared faster — on average, in 5.5 days — than infections in unvaccinated individuals, which took an average of 7.5 days to clear.

https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/ ... ontagious/

If 90%+ of our population had taken the vaccine, there would have been far less spread of the disease and a much lower burden for our health care system.

My wife and I are pretty fortunate in that regard as we're both retired and with none of our family living close by so it was pretty easy for us to self isolate. My wife has MS and rheumatoid arthritis, both auto immune diseases, so we've been very careful.

Please refer to my above comments. It is doing "something" in that it reduces the amount of time an infection is shedding virus and thus helping to reduce the spread. And even though the vaccines have lost a significant amount of their effectiveness as far as contracting the disease, they are still better than nothing. But I get your point, which is one of the reasons why I've softened my stance on mandates.

I believe the study you are referring to only looks at variants through the Delta variant and doesn't include the Omni, although it doesn't make much of a difference because I agree if we would have had 90% of the population vaccinated COVID wouldn't have had as much strain on the hospital system (also if we wouldn't have lost 5-10% of our hospital staff because of mandates we wouldn't have had as much of an issue either). As far as the rest of it goes we are arguing about 2 different things: 1) Mandate vaccines to control the spread of the virus and 2) get a vaccine so that you don't overwhelm the hospital system. My comment about mandating obesity is directly related to #2. Obviously your weight has no bearing on on my weight, but any discussion about the strain on our health care system should look at the real culprit- the relative health of our society. The argument that unvaccinated people are putting the health care system at a crisis is flawed, IMO. I would say unhealthy unvaccinated people who do not have natural immunity are straining our health care system and mandating a vaccine for a group that has an extreme low risk of going to the hospital (young/healthy people), because we are afraid of overwhelming the health care system, doesn't make much sense. Your argument is that if more people were vaccinated then our health care system wouldn't be overwhelmed. My argument is that if we had an overall healthier population our health care system wouldn't be as overwhelmed. Furthermore, as we go through this pandemic, my vaccination status probably won't be an issue anymore but our health care system will still be an issue due to the overall health of our country.

As far as mandating the vaccine to stop the spread I would be willing to consider it if it was clear that it would work. Obviously we are not at that point right now, but it looked like maybe we were last June. At that point I wasn't sold although at least I could make sense of a mandate. As 'breakthrough infections' began to become more prominent and the evidence began to emerge about the waning of vaccine efficiency it began to make less sense. The utter refusal to validate any form of natural immunity by our government was also confusing. One of my doctors (who is very much pro vaccine) told me that I wouldn't need the vaccine for at least a year after having COVID. Today it is clear that mandating the vaccine will do little to stop the spread of the virus.

At the end of the day we are closer in our disagreement now than in the past. Mandating the vaccine at this point makes less sense than it did 5 months ago. It seems like Omni is a big step in the right direction as far as the evolution of the virus goes and if it can spread without major loss of life then it is a good thing.

[RiverDog]

I believe the study you are referring to only looks at variants through the Delta variant and doesn't include the Omni, although it doesn't make much of a difference because I agree if we would have had 90% of the population vaccinated COVID wouldn't have had as much strain on the hospital system (also if we wouldn't have lost 5-10% of our hospital staff because of mandates we wouldn't have had as much of an issue either).

That's correct. Omnicron hasn't been around long enough for any credible studies to have taken place. But it would seem to reason that it would behave in a manner similar to the other two variants, that vaccines do help reduce the spread.

As far as the rest of it goes we are arguing about 2 different things: 1) Mandate vaccines to control the spread of the virus and 2) get a vaccine so that you don't overwhelm the hospital system. My comment about mandating obesity is directly related to #2. Obviously your weight has no bearing on on my weight, but any discussion about the strain on our health care system should look at the real culprit- the relative health of our society. The argument that unvaccinated people are putting the health care system at a crisis is flawed, IMO. I would say unhealthy unvaccinated people who do not have natural immunity are straining our health care system and mandating a vaccine for a group that has an extreme low risk of going to the hospital (young/healthy people), because we are afraid of overwhelming the health care system, doesn't make much sense. Your argument is that if more people were vaccinated then our health care system wouldn't be overwhelmed. My argument is that if we had an overall healthier population our health care system wouldn't be as overwhelmed. Furthermore, as we go through this pandemic, my vaccination status probably won't be an issue anymore but our health care system will still be an issue due to the overall health of our country.

As far as mandating the vaccine to stop the spread I would be willing to consider it if it was clear that it would work. Obviously we are not at that point right now, but it looked like maybe we were last June. At that point I wasn't sold although at least I could make sense of a mandate. As 'breakthrough infections' began to become more prominent and the evidence began to emerge about the waning of vaccine efficiency it began to make less sense. The utter refusal to validate any form of natural immunity by our government was also confusing. One of my doctors (who is very much pro vaccine) told me that I wouldn't need the vaccine for at least a year after having COVID. Today it is clear that mandating the vaccine will do little to stop the spread of the virus.

The underlying conditions, or general health issues, that you referred to are obviously a big factor in hospitalizations, but it's not the same as refusing to get vaccinated as they're not always caused by a voluntary condition. For example, there is substantial evidence that obesity is not caused by environmental conditions in the majority of cases, that the primary cause has to do with heredity:

Genetics is now known to play a substantial role in the predisposition to obesity and may contribute up to 70% risk for the disease.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32658169/

Obesity, and to a lesser degree alcoholism, which also has some known heredity factors, should not be mandated unless there is a cure that's safe and widely available. And rather than mandating treatment, I would be more amicable to some type of rating system be established that factors in a person's BMI for the purposes of determining insurance premiums, such as some companies do for tobacco use, if overeating were a voluntary trait. I've never liked the idea of me having to pay for someone else's bad decisions.

Another difference is that in a vaccine mandate, we're talking about a temporary measure to be used in a once in a lifetime emergency such as we have with this pandemic rather than the long-term nature of obesity. There's always going to be disagreement amongst the hundreds of thousands of doctors and other health care professionals, but ideally, a competent POTUS and legislative body (both huge assumptions) should be relied on to make the right decision that's in the best interests of the country as a whole.

At the end of the day we are closer in our disagreement now than in the past. Mandating the vaccine at this point makes less sense than it did 5 months ago. It seems like Omni is a big step in the right direction as far as the evolution of the virus goes and if it can spread without major loss of life then it is a good thing.

Agreed. And on a positive note, I just read where the omicron variant has peaked in the UK and is expected to peak in the US within the next few weeks. It is so contagious that it's running out of hosts and dying on the vine.

[mykc14]

River (on my phone it’s too hard to edit all of those quotes so I’ll not even going to try). I wouldn’t be surprised if the difference with Omni for the vaxxed unvaxxed wasn’t as extreme as other variants. I would also love a study comparing vaxxed vs those who have natural immunity.

As far as Obesity goes I am not actually advocating for a mandate on obese people, I’m using it to show that my risk to overwhelming the health care system is not high and therefore I shouldn’t be mandated to rake a vaccine. If somebody wants to eat and drink what they want have no problem with it- it’s your right. I also more than understand the genetic influences of obesity. I live it. Almost all of my family is or has been obese. The genetic connection with obesity and other health issues in our country shouldn’t distract us from the fact that we are incredibly unhealthy as a group land our government should be working to fix that issue, but they aren’t. Which connects with your last point. I don’t trust our government as a whole to have our best interest in mind. IMO we need to take care of ourselves (our health, financial future, safety, etc).

Here’s to hoping we are almost done with this and that Omni isn’t replaced by another- worse variant.

[Aseahawkfan]

Hey, Mykc! Glad to see you posting again.

The only reason the vaccines didn't get us out of the pandemic is because not enough people took them. Had we been able to vaccinate 90-95% of the population, there wouldn't be the crisis we're facing today and we could do just as you are suggesting, ie let the virus run wild. The hospitals would not have been nearly as overwhelmed as they are now.

At this point, I'm luke warm about vaccine mandates simply because in their current state, they are unmanageable and the effectiveness of the vaccines have waned and no longer are as effective at containing the spread as they were at this time last year so there's not the same justification that once existed.

What should have happened was the same thing that happened immediately following Pearl Harbor. Early last year, the President should have called for a joint session of Congress and asked them to pass emergency legislation giving him the authority to mandate vaccines nation wide with no exceptions granted except for medical conditions. There's no way that the Supreme Court would have overruled the other two branches of government. But, of course, Congress would not have given him the authority and even if it had, with the political situation the way it is and with so many people beholden to social media, there would have been mass protests against the mandate.

It's one of the weaknesses of a free society like ours. People think that they have the right to someone else's personal space in that it's OK for them to spread their germs to others. Like an old wise man once told me: Your freedom ends where my nose begins. That's a quite literal description of the problem we had during this pandemic.

You do not know this for sure and there is literally no evidence that the vaccine would have done this even with a 90 to 95% vaccination rate.

There is a lot of misinformation about vaccines not working, then there is misinformation like you just posted that they would have eradicated the virus even though there is no evidence including the company scientists who created them who claimed this.

Some discussions. Never did Moderna or Pfizer claim the COVID vaccines would prevent COVID, just deaths and hospitalizations. The vaccines have done what the creators said they would do, no more and no less.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-05/why-delta-is-shifting-the-herd-immunity-goal-posts-quicktake

2. Will vaccines eliminate Covid-19?
There’s considerable uncertainty about that. One scientific paper calculated that if a vaccine could provide a lifelong, fail-safe shield against infection with SARS-CoV-2, it would need to reach 60% to 72% of people to establish herd immunity. But if a vaccine is only 80% effective at preventing any infection, 75% to 90% of people would need to be immunized -- a high bar. The Covid vaccines in use today have been shown to offer 50% to 97% protection against becoming sick, but it’s mostly unknown how well they prevent people from getting an infection without symptoms that could still be passed on. The rapidly spreading delta variant, which is about twice as infectious as the original strain, is weakening vaccine effectiveness too. Another question is the duration of protection. The shorter it turns out to be, the higher the rates of immunization required to establish herd immunity. An unpublished study by Pfizer Inc. researchers that followed vaccinated individuals for as many as six months reported a gradually declining trend in vaccine efficacy against a symptomatic infection, but found their shot remained “highly efficacious” overall. Vaccines might not have to do all the work to get there: Some people who’ve already had the virus will be immunized against it, although not as well as those who’ve been inoculated.

It's going to end up more like flu shot even if we got 100% vaccination. COVID is endemic at this point and mutates far too rapidly for eradication. Only thing ending COVID is COVID mutating to something mild like the Common Cold or milder like the flu which we know how to treat and handle.

Heck, you're the one who told me a long time ago that this vaccine wasn't going to eradicate this thing like we all thought because the efficacy rate wasn't based on preventing infection.

[Aseahawkfan]

I don't guess any tyrant ever said that. Why would they? Tyrants don't have checks and balances. You need to revisit your word choice.

And I don't believe Trump ever did anything for anybody's benefit other than his own.

I do not need to revisit my word choice. Every tyrant I have ever read on has believed they were doing the "right" thing even if he words are not precisely the same. It is how they take power by convincing people they are what is "right" for their nation.

I find it exceedingly hard to believe you do not know of numerous quotes with similar ideas.

No single man should ever be in charge. That is the main way to avoid tyranny. Tyrants most assuredly do convince the people that their way is right while they take power and consolidate with their supporters violently.

I do not support expanding executive power, in fact I would like executive power reduced.

If Congress wants to initiate a mandate, they can get it done. Otherwise, let the States handle it. They have the power clearly set by legal precedent to initiate vaccine mandates for public health.

[Aseahawkfan]

When they were first introduced in December of 2020, the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines had an efficacy of 95% from infection from the original strain. There were no deaths recorded in any of the breakthrough cases. It dropped to around 60-70% with the arrival of the Delta variant. I'm not sure what the efficacy against infection of the Omnicron variant is, but it would seem logical that it's somewhat less than 50%.

Edit: I just read in my local paper that the infection efficacy for a vaccinated person in the Tri Cities area is 43%, but they didn't give a percentage for those that have received a booster.

This is not what was said. We had this debate when we we're discussing this at that time. I thought it was 95% and would be eradicated. Then I reread the information and it was 95% effective are reducing death and hospitalization, not infection and transmission. You're actually the one that corrected me back then surprisingly. But I guess you forgot that the original creators stated they were not sure it would prevent infection or transmission, just sure it would prevent hospitalization and death.

If you read the decision, you'll see that the court was concerned about using OSHA as a vehicle to impose the mandate. Here's the majority opinion:

OSHA has never before imposed such a mandate. Nor has Congress. Indeed, although Congress has enacted significant legislation addressing the COVID–19 pandemic, it has declined to enact any measure similar to what OSHA has promulgated here,” the conservatives wrote in an unsigned opinion.

And as I said earlier, the majority expressed discomfort over Biden's 100 employee disclaimer. It was an arbitrary distinction.

What they're saying is that it's an issue that should be decided by Congress, not an arm of the Administration. They did not say that the government doesn't have the authority to issue a mandate. If Congress enacted a law mandating that everyone get vaccinated, I doubt that any court would stand in its way. Of course, the problem is that they could never get such a bill through Congress in a timely manner, and as rapidly as a virus can spread, time is of the essence. It's one of those post pandemic things that needs to be addressed once this pandemic is over.

Congress represents the States. Biden overstepped his executive power.

Yeah, it's going to be a blood bath. Given the regression of the vaccines effectiveness against preventing the spread of the virus, I'm less enthusiastic of the mandates than I was 6 months ago.

Yep. Will be interesting. If the Congress backs a mandate and the Supreme Court supports it, only way to move it back is to get rid of the Democrats from office.

It won't matter much for our state. State and local level mandates have already been supported by the Supreme Court. Washington State will issue mandates at least in blue areas.

I doubt we're turning Red over this.

[RiverDog]

River (on my phone it’s too hard to edit all of those quotes so I’ll not even going to try). I wouldn’t be surprised if the difference with Omni for the vaxxed unvaxxed wasn’t as extreme as other variants. I would also love a study comparing vaxxed vs those who have natural immunity.

No problem on editing quotes. That's why I like using my tablet for these types of exercises. My obese fingers aren't real good at text messaging. Keyboarding is much easier for a boomer like me.

By the time they complete their study, Omicron is likely to have run its course.

As far as Obesity goes I am not actually advocating for a mandate on obese people, I’m using it to show that my risk to overwhelming the health care system is not high and therefore I shouldn’t be mandated to rake a vaccine. If somebody wants to eat and drink what they want have no problem with it- it’s your right. I also more than understand the genetic influences of obesity. I live it. Almost all of my family is or has been obese. The genetic connection with obesity and other health issues in our country shouldn’t distract us from the fact that we are incredibly unhealthy as a group land our government should be working to fix that issue, but they aren’t. Which connects with your last point. I don’t trust our government as a whole to have our best interest in mind. IMO we need to take care of ourselves (our health, financial future, safety, etc).

Here’s to hoping we are almost done with this and that Omni isn’t replaced by another- worse variant.

I understand the point you're making regarding underlying health conditions that contribute to bad results when a person acquires an unrelated disease. I just don't feel that it's appropriate to use it in our discussion about mandates. Apples and oranges.

All the data suggest that this newest surge will be over much more quickly than the previous ones. New York, because of their population density and transportation hub, is always the first city/state to experience a surge, and they're already seeing a decline in hospitalizations and positivity rates. This variant is its own worst enemy.

[mykc14]

I understand the point you're making regarding underlying health conditions that contribute to bad results when a person acquires an unrelated disease. I just don't feel that it's appropriate to use it in our discussion about mandates. Apples and oranges.

All the data suggest that this newest surge will be over much more quickly than the previous ones. New York, because of their population density and transportation hub, is always the first city/state to experience a surge, and they're already seeing a decline in hospitalizations and positivity rates. This variant is its own worst enemy.

I don’t think it’s Apples to Oranges in regards to the COVID pandemic. There is a direct correlation between risk factors and age in terms of hospitalizations with COVID. If the data showed that unvaccinated are overwhelming the health care system regardless of things like obesity, diabetes, etc then I would agree with the argument, but that’s not what the data is showing. It is clearly showing that there is a connection between those health issues and hospitalizations. In fact somebody who is obese and over 60 who is vaccinated has a higher chance of going to the hospital than me. When 70% of people hospitalized with an issue share a common health problem (obesity) then I would say it’s relevant. People think that unvaccinated people are being selfish. The reality is that some of us are working everyday to be healthier. Working out, making healthy eating choices, etc so that we aren’t overwhelming hospital systems. Other people are protecting themselves by getting a shot. It is hard for me to wrap my mind around the idea that I am a bigger threat to society than somebody who is overweight and I not willing to work to get themselves healthier, but because they got the vaccine they are ok- even though they still pose a higher risk than me. Also, please understand that I am not judging people who are overweight. I have no problem with how anybody else chooses to live as long as they aren’t actively hurting people. If I were of a different age or health profile (which I may be one day) then I would be much more likely to get the vaccine. Some choose to protect themselves and society with a shot, I choose to protect myself and society with exercise and healthy choices. Why am I the one losing my job and being threatened to be put into a concentration camp?

[RiverDog]

I don’t think it’s Apples to Oranges in regards to the COVID pandemic. There is a direct correlation between risk factors and age in terms of hospitalizations with COVID. If the data showed that unvaccinated are overwhelming the health care system regardless of things like obesity, diabetes, etc then I would agree with the argument, but that’s not what the data is showing. It is clearly showing that there is a connection between those health issues and hospitalizations. In fact somebody who is obese and over 60 who is vaccinated has a higher chance of going to the hospital than me. When 70% of people hospitalized with an issue share a common health problem (obesity) then I would say it’s relevant. People think that unvaccinated people are being selfish. The reality is that some of us are working everyday to be healthier. Working out, making healthy eating choices, etc so that we aren’t overwhelming hospital systems. Other people are protecting themselves by getting a shot. It is hard for me to wrap my mind around the idea that I am a bigger threat to society than somebody who is overweight and I not willing to work to get themselves healthier, but because they got the vaccine they are ok- even though they still pose a higher risk than me. Also, please understand that I am not judging people who are overweight. I have no problem with how anybody else chooses to live as long as they aren’t actively hurting people. If I were of a different age or health profile (which I may be one day) then I would be much more likely to get the vaccine. Some choose to protect themselves and society with a shot, I choose to protect myself and society with exercise and healthy choices. Why am I the one losing my job and being threatened to be put into a concentration camp?

I understand and agree with much of what you're saying. But being overweight doesn't contribute to the spread of the virus and there's not much that can done on a short term basis to keep them out of the hospital should they become infected. It is definitely not something that can be addressed in a short term measure like social distancing, vaccine or mask mandates, good hand washing, and so on. Except for their increased chance of being hospitalized, an overweight person isn't anymore of a threat to you than your 10 year old child. That's why your analogy is apples and oranges.

Exercise and healthy choices may protect you from a bad result from the virus, but it's not going to protect those around you from it. A fit person that eats a balanced diet and doesn't smoke or drink is just as likely to contract and spread the virus as someone that is old or overweight, perhaps more if their good conditioning results in them being more socially active. Only some type of immunity, whether it be naturally acquired or vaccine induced, or some sort of inoculation that helps reduce the chance of contracting the virus, can protect others from you unless you wear a mask 100% of the time or live like a hermit. That's the problem with people's thinking on this. Their thinking tends to be very limited in scope, unable to see how their decision can affect others.

That's what irritated me about Aaron Rodgers. He thinks it's all about him, that he need not worry about spreading the disease to others, so not only does he refuse to get vaccinated, he gives others the perception that he is vaccinated by both his words and actions and therefore not a threat to them, refuses to mask in close quarters, and rides on the team plane to road games. He may not have been a threat to any of his teammates, but he damn sure was to their parents and grandparents.

[mykc14]

River- but that’s my point. We are arguing about the risk of hospitalizations, not the risk of spreading it. Right now the risk of spreading it is higher in the vaccinated than the unvaccinated. 79% of cases are in vaccinated people. Who is more likely to be asymptomatic, vaxxed or unvaxxed? Right now, even though vaccinated people are getting Omni at a high rate, protocol says that an unvaxxed close contact has to quarantine, but a vaccinated person who lives with a Covid positive person can still go to work, eat at a restaurant, go to a sporting event, etc. How am I more a risk to spread it than a vaccinated person?

[mykc14]

As far as how my choice not to get vaccinated has affected others I would say it had very little effect. I wear my mask, social distance, etc. I also test periodically, even if I don’t have any symptoms and I have natural immunity. The odds of me spreading COVID to somebody that would have to be hospitalized for COVID are extremely low. The odds of me being exposed by a coworker or student is much higher than me exposing them.

[RiverDog]

River- but that’s my point. We are arguing about the risk of hospitalizations, not the risk of spreading it. Right now the risk of spreading it is higher in the vaccinated than the unvaccinated. 79% of cases are in vaccinated people. Who is more likely to be asymptomatic, vaxxed or unvaxxed? Right now, even though vaccinated people are getting Omni at a high rate, protocol says that an unvaxxed close contact has to quarantine, but a vaccinated person who lives with a Covid positive person can still go to work, eat at a restaurant, go to a sporting event, etc. How am I more a risk to spread it than a vaccinated person?

Right now the risk of spreading it is higher in the vaccinated than the unvaccinated. 79% of cases are in vaccinated people

That doesn't prove that a vaccinated person is more likely to contract/spread the disease. You are ignoring the fact that the majority of people ARE vaccinated. In this state, 76% of the population has received at least one dose and 68% are fully vaccinated, so if we assume that everyone, vaccinated or not, is at equal risk of contracting the virus and understanding that the reported vaccinated numbers are likely a few percentage points lower than reported, then your 79% represents a 50/50 chance.

https://usafacts.org/visualizations/cov ... washington

But I understand your point. Omicron has changed the conditions, which is why my stance on vaccine mandates has changed. However, I still haven't seen any information on the difference in the shedding of virus in vaccinated vs. unvaccinated with this new variant. If it's like the Delta variant, there's a significant difference.

[RiverDog]

As far as how my choice not to get vaccinated has affected others I would say it had very little effect. I wear my mask, social distance, etc. I also test periodically, even if I don’t have any symptoms and I have natural immunity. The odds of me spreading COVID to somebody that would have to be hospitalized for COVID are extremely low. The odds of me being exposed by a coworker or student is much higher than me exposing them.

I applaud your efforts, and if everyone were like you, we wouldn't have to have vaccination or mask mandates. But we wouldn't have to have speed limits if everyone would operate their vehicle in a safe and responsible manner. Unfortunately, it's been my experience that there are more Aaron Rodgers than there are mykc14's.

[mykc14]

Yeah, I agree River. Unfortunately stupid people ruin things for everybody (although I understand there are plenty of people who would call me stupid for not vaccinated). What has happened with the virus and vaccine over the past few months is why I thought it prudent to take a wait and see approach which vaccines. Obviously they have been a lifesaver for many, but they haven’t been the one thing that ends the pandemic that many thought they would be. At the end of the day hopefully Omni leads to the end of the pandemic.

[RiverDog]

Yeah, I agree River. Unfortunately stupid people ruin things for everybody (although I understand there are plenty of people who would call me stupid for not vaccinated). What has happened with the virus and vaccine over the past few months is why I thought it prudent to take a wait and see approach which vaccines. Obviously they have been a lifesaver for many, but they haven’t been the one thing that ends the pandemic that many thought they would be. At the end of the day hopefully Omni leads to the end of the pandemic.

The biggest problem with the vaccines is that not enough people took them. They might not have ended the pandemic as it would have required that we get the entire world up to that same uptake, but the statistics show that we would be a heck of a lot better shape had we attained a 90%+ uptake.

The other disappointing part of the pandemic/vaccines is the amount of disinformation and conspiracy theories that have taken root, primarily due to the predominance of social media. It's created an atmosphere of mistrust. It highlights my pet peeve subject of our moronish country, where we have such a large percentage of idiots that don't know how to process information, separate the wheat from the chaff.

I've been trying to allay my wife's fear of the virus. As I noted, she's afflicted by two auto immune diseases, and when the pandemic first broke out, I vowed to let her make the call on my activities. She's a lot more of a home body than I am, hates big crowds, doesn't even like going to private parties, a fact that she recognizes and admits that I've made more sacrifices than she has.

I attended my nephew's New Year's Eve wedding in Las Vegas along with my daughter, who like me, is fully vaccinated and boosted. My daughter contracted Covid, as did several others that attended the wedding. When I found out about my daughter's infection, I took a test which turned out negative and haven't had any symptoms, but my wife is still understandably unnerved. I want to travel to see a friend for SB weekend next month so I've been planting in her mind the information about the Omicron variant, that it's not nearly the threat as the other two and might well lead to a lessening of the pandemic, all true statements. She's consented to my traveling but is still very apprehensive.

[RiverDog]

We're not the only country to have debated vaccine mandates. I'm sure that all of you have been following the saga of tennis star Novak Djokovic's attempt to enter Australia and play in the Australian Open so I won't bother reviewing the case.

Earlier this morning, the court (the one with the black robes, not the one with the white shorts ) rejected Djokovic's appeal and deported him, in part out of a fear that he would be the center of the anti vaxxers protests and even though Djokovic, unlike Aaron Rodgers, has not embraced any conspiracy theories, advocated whacky treatments, and hasn't been a vocal anti vax protester, would still represent a threat to maintaining the peace. Djokovic had won 20 straight Grand Slam events that will now come to an end. And if the Australians follow their own rules, he will be banned from entering country for 3 years.

https://news.yahoo.com/novak-djokovic-l ... 01524.html

[mykc14]

The biggest problem with the vaccines is that not enough people took them. They might not have ended the pandemic as it would have required that we get the entire world up to that same uptake, but the statistics show that we would be a heck of a lot better shape had we attained a 90%+ uptake.

The other disappointing part of the pandemic/vaccines is the amount of disinformation and conspiracy theories that have taken root, primarily due to the predominance of social media. It's created an atmosphere of mistrust. It highlights my pet peeve subject of our moronish country, where we have such a large percentage of idiots that don't know how to process information, separate the wheat from the chaff.

I've been trying to allay my wife's fear of the virus. As I noted, she's afflicted by two auto immune diseases, and when the pandemic first broke out, I vowed to let her make the call on my activities. She's a lot more of a home body than I am, hates big crowds, doesn't even like going to private parties, a fact that she recognizes and admits that I've made more sacrifices than she has.

I attended my nephew's New Year's Eve wedding in Las Vegas along with my daughter, who like me, is fully vaccinated and boosted. My daughter contracted Covid, as did several others that attended the wedding. When I found out about my daughter's infection, I took a test which turned out negative and haven't had any symptoms, but my wife is still understandably unnerved. I want to travel to see a friend for SB weekend next month so I've been planting in her mind the information about the Omicron variant, that it's not nearly the threat as the other two and might well lead to a lessening of the pandemic, all true statements. She's consented to my traveling but is still very apprehensive.

I don’t know if getting 90% would have mattered or not. IMO the biggest issue with the vaccine was that it was too specialized. They should have been creating a broad spectrum type of vaccine that might not have been as effective but had the potential to protect against a wider variety of variants. It is my understanding that this type of vaccine is in the works now but it wasn’t being developed until a few months ago. There is also some fear that this vaccine is “leaky” which could lead to a more deadly virus than what would occur naturally. I don’t know that I buy into that theory, but there are virologist around the world who are concerned and monitoring. Also, because the efficiency waned over a 6 month period not only would you have to get 90% of the whole world vaccinated, you also would have had to have had it completed in a very short amount of time. In the end we will never know, but hopefully we are seeing the end.

Yes, misinformation on the internet, especially social media platforms is frustrating. You should watch “The Social Dilemma” on Netflix, it deals with this subject and is pretty good. Social media needs to be regulated like other forms of media.

I understand your wife’s concerns and know people who are in the same situation. It looks like Omni will be well tolerated by people who got the vaccine so hopefully that is encouraging to her. I look forward to a time when we can get back to whatever normal will look like post-pandemic.

[RiverDog]

I don’t know if getting 90% would have mattered or not. IMO the biggest issue with the vaccine was that it was too specialized. They should have been creating a broad spectrum type of vaccine that might not have been as effective but had the potential to protect against a wider variety of variants. It is my understanding that this type of vaccine is in the works now but it wasn’t being developed until a few months ago. There is also some fear that this vaccine is “leaky” which could lead to a more deadly virus than what would occur naturally. I don’t know that I buy into that theory, but there are virologist around the world who are concerned and monitoring. Also, because the efficiency waned over a 6 month period not only would you have to get 90% of the whole world vaccinated, you also would have had to have had it completed in a very short amount of time. In the end we will never know, but hopefully we are seeing the end.

Getting 90% of the world's population vaccinated in 6 months would have drastically cut the number of mutations the virus went through, so while we can't say definitively one way or another if it would or wouldn't have rendered it to an endemic status, it obviously would have given us a much better chance and we'd be in a lot better situation with far fewer hospitalizations and deaths.

Yes, misinformation on the internet, especially social media platforms is frustrating. You should watch “The Social Dilemma” on Netflix, it deals with this subject and is pretty good. Social media needs to be regulated like other forms of media.

I agree, but the problem is that we start bumping up against the 1st amendment. Who's to say that a conspiracy theory like there's microchips in the vaccine or that the virus was created in a Chinese lab shouldn't be distributed over social media? Until recently, even though there was some political bias and far from perfect, the press pretty much self-regulated. If stories like Operation Tailwind or the Bush Texas Air National Guard managed to get distributed, it was quickly debunked by the other news agencies. Not anymore.

On a side note, I read with a considerable amount of humor and satisfaction an article that noted how a 70 some year old Buzz Aldrin got into a fist fight with a moon landing truther that called him a liar to his face:

In the running for most famous of the (moon landing) deniers might be Bart Sibrel, a 55-year-old Tennessee resident notorious for having been punched in the face by Buzz Aldrin in 2002 after Sibrel confronted Aldrin in person, calling him a liar, coward and thief,

Aldrin was not prosecuted as police determined he'd been provoked, and that punch earned him accolades from many fed up with the conspirators.

https://www.floridatoday.com/story/tech ... 702676001/

I understand your wife’s concerns and know people who are in the same situation. It looks like Omni will be well tolerated by people who got the vaccine so hopefully that is encouraging to her. I look forward to a time when we can get back to whatever normal will look like post-pandemic.

That's one statement that everyone is in agreement with. A couple of weeks ago, I had to cancel a trip to Japan where I had planned on visiting a couple of high school classmates, Japanese exchange students, now living in Tokyo, that I've seen just a couple of times since we graduated in 1973. It sucks.

[Aseahawkfan]

Getting 90% of the world's population vaccinated in 6 months would have drastically cut the number of mutations the virus went through, so while we can't say definitively one way or another if it would or wouldn't have rendered it to an endemic status, it obviously would have given us a much better chance and we'd be in a lot better situation with far fewer hospitalizations and deaths.

It is not known if it would have cut mutations. It's possible. It is known it likely would have cut hospitalizations and deaths. Even Fauci is changing his tune. There was no data to assure us that eradication was even a possibility. There has only been one serious illness eradicated per the previous article I posted which was small pox. Coronaviruses are far more adaptable than small pox. It is also highly impractical to vaccine 90% of the world before a mutation occurs.

We have plenty of data to support the following:

1. Herd immunity is not attainable via natural immunity from getting COVID or from vaccination or from any combination of the two. No nation has so far been able to produce herd immunity with booster shots, natural immunity, or by any means so far and we have some nations with an 80% vaccination rate with a likely percentage of natural immunity included which should have produced at least some herd immunity. It seems unattainable.

2. Vaccination has effectively reduced the stress on the hospital system and should continue to be pushed. Evidence clearly shows that even if the vaccines do not prevent infection, they do reduce hospitalization and death. They are a highly useful tool in the medical arsenal.

3. We have more treatments now to handle COVID which has also helped the medical community treat the virus.

4. COVID is likely endemic.

5. The vaccines work regardless if someone unvaccinated comes around you. They should work regardless if you are associating with an unvaccinated person. So this is not unexpected.

6. It looks like the best we can hope for is a mutation to a weaker strain, that becomes like the common cold. But most likely it will be an up and down situation where some years the COVID mutation will be worse than others like the flu.

7. One of the best ways to curb COVID is a good testing program with concentrated quarantine because what makes COVID so difficult to control is the ticking time bombs of asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic carriers. They just wander around spreading it with no idea they even have it.

That seems our situation right now. It would be real nice if governments would start accepting this situation and governing accordingly.

[Aseahawkfan]

I don’t know if getting 90% would have mattered or not. IMO the biggest issue with the vaccine was that it was too specialized. They should have been creating a broad spectrum type of vaccine that might not have been as effective but had the potential to protect against a wider variety of variants. It is my understanding that this type of vaccine is in the works now but it wasn’t being developed until a few months ago. There is also some fear that this vaccine is “leaky” which could lead to a more deadly virus than what would occur naturally. I don’t know that I buy into that theory, but there are virologist around the world who are concerned and monitoring. Also, because the efficiency waned over a 6 month period not only would you have to get 90% of the whole world vaccinated, you also would have had to have had it completed in a very short amount of time. In the end we will never know, but hopefully we are seeing the end.

Yes, misinformation on the internet, especially social media platforms is frustrating. You should watch “The Social Dilemma” on Netflix, it deals with this subject and is pretty good. Social media needs to be regulated like other forms of media.

I understand your wife’s concerns and know people who are in the same situation. It looks like Omni will be well tolerated by people who got the vaccine so hopefully that is encouraging to her. I look forward to a time when we can get back to whatever normal will look like post-pandemic.

They're working on a broad spectrum vaccine. They've never been able to eradicate the cold or the flu or malaria or really any other disease but smallpox from what I read. So unlikely they will eradicate COVID. A lot of people including myself were hoping these vaccines would do so given the efficacy rate, but that efficacy rate was never for the prevention of infection, only the reduction of hospitalization and death.

Coronaviruses are notoriously unstable and easily mutate. So it will be more about immune boosting than eradication and hoping it mutates into a much weaker form.

Who knows. Given more time maybe these crazy scientists will come up with something. We're better looking at microscopic organisms genomes than at any point in history. They can map a virus genome very quickly to determine how it works. This pandemic will only help them get better at handling them.

[Aseahawkfan]

We're not the only country to have debated vaccine mandates. I'm sure that all of you have been following the saga of tennis star Novak Djokovic's attempt to enter Australia and play in the Australian Open so I won't bother reviewing the case.

Earlier this morning, the court (the one with the black robes, not the one with the white shorts ) rejected Djokovic's appeal and deported him, in part out of a fear that he would be the center of the anti vaxxers protests and even though Djokovic, unlike Aaron Rodgers, has not embraced any conspiracy theories, advocated whacky treatments, and hasn't been a vocal anti vax protester, would still represent a threat to maintaining the peace. Djokovic had won 20 straight Grand Slam events that will now come to an end. And if the Australians follow their own rules, he will be banned from entering country for 3 years.

https://news.yahoo.com/novak-djokovic-l ... 01524.html

Even you said Australia was insane. They are going way too far in my opinion with their camps and locking down constantly to the point Australians can barely go outside for almost 2 years now. I'm glad America did not take that line of thought as it hasn't helped Australia eradicate the virus.

[RiverDog]

We're not the only country to have debated vaccine mandates. I'm sure that all of you have been following the saga of tennis star Novak Djokovic's attempt to enter Australia and play in the Australian Open so I won't bother reviewing the case.

Earlier this morning, the court (the one with the black robes, not the one with the white shorts ) rejected Djokovic's appeal and deported him, in part out of a fear that he would be the center of the anti vaxxers protests and even though Djokovic, unlike Aaron Rodgers, has not embraced any conspiracy theories, advocated whacky treatments, and hasn't been a vocal anti vax protester, would still represent a threat to maintaining the peace. Djokovic had won 20 straight Grand Slam events that will now come to an end. And if the Australians follow their own rules, he will be banned from entering country for 3 years.

https://news.yahoo.com/novak-djokovic-l ... 01524.html

Even you said Australia was insane. They are going way too far in my opinion with their camps and locking down constantly to the point Australians can barely go outside for almost 2 years now. I'm glad America did not take that line of thought as it hasn't helped Australia eradicate the virus.

I have mixed emotions. Yes, Australia did go too far. Their policy was/is inflexible and doesn't take into account the waning effectiveness of the vaccines against the new variant, nor did they given an option similar to what the NFL has done for their players. But I also think that Djokovic is an idiot and deserved what he got. At this point, with billions of doses already administered, there is no question that the vaccines are at least as safe as many other drugs and treatments that we take for granted, so if he still chose not to get the jab, he can suffer the consequences and forfeit his opportunity to play in the tourney. I agreed with their canceling his visa and deporting him. He gets no sympathy from me.

I don't think anyone ever talked about the vaccines eradicating the virus. At least for me, it's always been about ending the pandemic and making the virus more manageable. It took decades to eradicate small pox and effectively eradicate polio.

[RiverDog]

A lot of people including myself were hoping these vaccines would do so given the efficacy rate, but that efficacy rate was never for the prevention of infection, only the reduction of hospitalization and death.

You keep saying that but it's not true. The efficacy against infection of the original virus when the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines were first introduced in December of 2020 was aprox. 94%:

Q: How well does Moderna Covid-19 vaccine prevent Covid-19?

A: The data to support the December 2020 EUA include an analysis of 28,207 participants in the ongoing randomized, placebo-controlled U.S. study who did not have evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection prior to the first dose of vaccine. Among these participants, 14,134 received the vaccine and 14,073 received placebo. The data showed a two-dose series of Moderna COVID-19 Vaccine was 94.1% effective in preventing COVID-19 disease among these clinical trial participants with 11 cases of COVID-19 in the vaccine group and 185 cases in the placebo group. At the time of the analysis of these 196 COVID-19 cases, 0 in the vaccine group and 30 in the placebo group were classified as severe. One severe case in the vaccine group was identified after the analysis (and not included among the 196 cases) and was awaiting confirmation at the time the FDA review was conducted.

https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedn ... -questions

The vaccine's performance in the field showed similar results. 94% efficacy against infection, not hospitalization. Same with Pfizer's vaccine. Johnson and Johnson's vaccine was quite a bit lower, in the 70's if I recall, but well above the FDA's minimum of 60%, plus its trial was conducted when there were a lot more infections.

It was only after the Delta variant arrived that we started seeing significant numbers of breakthrough cases.

[Aseahawkfan]

You keep saying that but it's not true. The efficacy against infection of the original virus when the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines were first introduced in December of 2020 was aprox. 94%:

Q: How well does Moderna Covid-19 vaccine prevent Covid-19?

A: The data to support the December 2020 EUA include an analysis of 28,207 participants in the ongoing randomized, placebo-controlled U.S. study who did not have evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection prior to the first dose of vaccine. Among these participants, 14,134 received the vaccine and 14,073 received placebo. The data showed a two-dose series of Moderna COVID-19 Vaccine was 94.1% effective in preventing COVID-19 disease among these clinical trial participants with 11 cases of COVID-19 in the vaccine group and 185 cases in the placebo group. At the time of the analysis of these 196 COVID-19 cases, 0 in the vaccine group and 30 in the placebo group were classified as severe. One severe case in the vaccine group was identified after the analysis (and not included among the 196 cases) and was awaiting confirmation at the time the FDA review was conducted.

https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedn ... -questions

The vaccine's performance in the field showed similar results. 94% efficacy against infection, not hospitalization. Same with Pfizer's vaccine. Johnson and Johnson's vaccine was quite a bit lower, in the 70's if I recall, but well above the FDA's minimum of 60%, plus its trial was conducted when there were a lot more infections.

It was only after the Delta variant arrived that we started seeing significant numbers of breakthrough cases.

It most certainly is true. It's why I came to the conclusion wasn't going to happen months ago. I read closer what they were really saying. It wasn't "The COVID19 vaccines prevent the virus from transmitting." It was, "We're not sure if it prevents the virus from transmitting, but we're absolutely sure it is highly effective at preventing COVID19 disease aka symptomatic COVID."

That is what these studies indicate. https://www.science.org/content/article/covid-19-vaccine-trial-complete-pfizer-and-biontech-update-their-promising-result

In here it indicates it prevented symptomatic COVID, not virus transmission in a 43,000 person trial. You are not noticing the word play they are using. They call it COVID19 disease as in symptomatic. Nowhere does it say it prevents virus transmission.

https://www.cdc.gov/dotw/covid-19/index.html

This is what made people believe that it would lead to eradication. There is a distinct and subtle difference between COVID19 disease and having the presence of the virus. You can have the virus present and not have COVID19 disease. This is what we read all those months ago about the vaccine and why it was unlikely to lead to eradication and prevent the virus from mutating. The vaccine does not prevent the virus from entering your body.

Thus the vaccines will not lead to eradication. They primarily prevent symptomatic COVID19 which leads to hospitalization and death. It's what you call having to read the fine print and understand what the science really says.

This is why mutations were inevitable and the idea that even if we vaccinate 95% of the population quickly, it was unlikely to eradicate COVID because the virus was still present and capable of mutation.

An amusing part of this is the vaccinated are more dangerous to the unvaccinated than vice versa. A vaccinated person could walk around with the virus feeling nothing because their immune system is resisting it and give it to an unvaccinated person whose immune system is completely unprepared to deal with it.

[RiverDog]

Your link says the same thing my link says. Let's break down the numbers taken directly from your link:

The U.S. pharma giant and its German biotech partner now report 95% efficacy for their vaccine candidate, drawing on the final analysis of a 43,000-person study.

In all, the trial had 162 confirmed cases of symptomatic COVID-19 in the placebo group versus eight among those who received the two scheduled doses of the vaccine.

162 from the placebo group divided by 8 from the vaccine group equals 0.0493827160493827, or 5%, which is how they arrive at 95% efficacy.

Nine of the 10 people who had severe cases of COVID-19 during the trial received the placebo, which indicates that even if the vaccine fails to prevent symptomatic disease, it still offers powerful protection from serious harm.

One person out of the 8 from the vaccine group that contracted covid had a severe case of it, so divide .0493827160493827, the percentage of the vaccine group that got covid, by 8, the number of covid case from the vaccine group, and you get 0.0061728395061728, or about 1/2 of 1%. Or figure it another way by taking 1, the number of severe covid cases from the vaccine group, and divide it by 162, the number in the placebo group that got covid, and you get the same result, ie 0.0061728395061728.

That means that the efficacy of contracting severe covid is 99.4%, and there were no deaths, so almost no chance of dying.

You are correct that they did not report how well the vaccine prevented asymptomatic infections. But that's simply because they had no way of determining how many people in either group had been infected but showed no symptoms. They would have had to have gone out to 43,000 people and done an antibody test, which was impractical, and it wasn't a requirement demanded by the FDA for approval. I'm not even sure if antibody testing was available at that time.

But at 95% efficacy from preventing symptomatic infection, it's a no brainer that the vaccines are going to make a huge difference in the spread, a fact that was borne out in the field by the dramatic decline in infections in nursing homes in January of 2021, in an environment where cases were surging everywhere else, following the vaccine being given to nursing home residents and staff in December of 2020, and nationwide in March and April of 2021 as the vaccine rollout hit its stride. Field data collected from Israel, which was surrounded by countries with huge surges at the time they rolled out the Pfizer vaccine, also supports these findings.

[RiverDog]

Here's an interesting study about the Omicron variant and it's response to vaccines:

Fourth Pfizer dose is insufficient to ward off Omicron, Israeli trial suggests

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/fo ... cid=msnews

I'm not sure if I mentioned it, but I recently attended my nephew's wedding in Las Vegas on New Year's Eve. Amazingly enough, patrons of the casinos in Vegas are more likely to follow masking protocols as all the casinos already have a robust security staff walking the floor, so adding the responsibility to tell people to put on their masks is simple and cost free for the casinos. The one time I forgot to put one on, I was quickly reminded by security.

The one place where I was unmasked for several hours amongst a large crowd was at the wedding itself, which lasted over 5 hours. So, too, was my daughter, who was with me at nearly every other place I went. My daughter, along with several other guests that were at the wedding, contracted Covid, but I did not, nor did my son-in-law. All 3 of us were fully vaccinated, including booster shots.

There was one difference, though. My daughter had taken the Pfizer vaccine while my son-in-law and I both had Moderna.

Perhaps it's just a coincidence, but you have to wonder if Moderna is the better of the two, at least with regards to its response to Omicron.

[mykc14]

At this point, with billions of doses already administered, there is no question that the vaccines are at least as safe as many other drugs and treatments that we take for granted, so if he still chose not to get the jab, he can suffer the consequences and forfeit his opportunity to play in the tourney. I agreed with their canceling his visa and deporting him. He gets no sympathy from me.

I don't think anyone ever talked about the vaccines eradicating the virus. At least for me, it's always been about ending the pandemic and making the virus more manageable. It took decades to eradicate small pox and effectively eradicate polio.

But the difference is that nobody is requiring for you to take those other drugs. Why should there even be consequences for not taking the jab right now? The vaccinated and even boosted it seems (after 4-6 weeks) are getting/spreading COVID. I work in a place where 100's of people are tested on a weekly basis, where there is about of 50/50 split of vaccinated vs. Unvaccinated. Of the group who has tested positive over the past 2 weeks 75% are vaccinated and some boosted. I think that it is probably coincidence, but the point is that this virus is spreading quickly and it doesn't seem to care about your vaccination status.

I think there are a lot of people out there who thought the vaccines would eradicate the virus, which is why they were so much in favor of vaccine mandates.

[mykc14]

There was one difference, though. My daughter had taken the Pfizer vaccine while my son-in-law and I both had Moderna.

Perhaps it's just a coincidence, but you have to wonder if Moderna is the better of the two, at least with regards to its response to Omicron.

That is very interesting and something that we should study. I was talking to a colleague during the Delta surge and we were thinking that they should do a study to see which vaccines were offering the best protection against that particular variant. It would be great data to track which vaccines people who had 'breakthrough' infections had received.

[mykc14]

Coronaviruses are notoriously unstable and easily mutate. So it will be more about immune boosting than eradication and hoping it mutates into a much weaker form.

Who knows. Given more time maybe these crazy scientists will come up with something. We're better looking at microscopic organisms genomes than at any point in history. They can map a virus genome very quickly to determine how it works. This pandemic will only help them get better at handling them.

Yeah, any virus that can jump from human to animal is going to be impossible to eradicate with today's technology. It is truly amazing how quickly they can analyze a virus, map it and figure out everything about it's structure and genetic sequence and it's very promising for the future, but trying to predict how they will evolve is a different story.

[RiverDog]

At this point, with billions of doses already administered, there is no question that the vaccines are at least as safe as many other drugs and treatments that we take for granted, so if he still chose not to get the jab, he can suffer the consequences and forfeit his opportunity to play in the tourney. I agreed with their canceling his visa and deporting him. He gets no sympathy from me.

I don't think anyone ever talked about the vaccines eradicating the virus. At least for me, it's always been about ending the pandemic and making the virus more manageable. It took decades to eradicate small pox and effectively eradicate polio.

But the difference is that nobody is requiring for you to take those other drugs. Why should there even be consequences for not taking the jab right now?

I agree with the 'right now' part. Omnicron changed the game, so I don't feel there's near the justification for the jab as things stand today. However, up until 6 weeks ago, and although they weren't working as well against Delta as they were the original variant, they were still well above the 60% threshold that the USDA has set for vaccines, our hospitals were overwhelmed, and Delta was beginning to infect young children, something we hadn't seen in the original variant. Plus there was a lot of evidence that suggested that boosters given 4+ months after the original series significantly raised efficacy against Delta.

The vaccinated and even boosted it seems (after 4-6 weeks) are getting/spreading COVID. I work in a place where 100's of people are tested on a weekly basis, where there is about of 50/50 split of vaccinated vs. Unvaccinated. Of the group who has tested positive over the past 2 weeks 75% are vaccinated and some boosted. I think that it is probably coincidence, but the point is that this virus is spreading quickly and it doesn't seem to care about your vaccination status.

I think what you say is likely true, but this Omicron variant has only been identified here in the US since Dec. 1st, and they haven't had time to fully evaluate it. That's the scary thing about variants like this one is that it can be on top of us so quickly that you don't want to rescind mandates based on incomplete information.

I think there are a lot of people out there who thought the vaccines would eradicate the virus, which is why they were so much in favor of vaccine mandates.

Back to my pet peeve, the moron factor. No credible source ever said that it would eradicate the virus, to the contrary, they were telling us that it was going to be around for some time and could evolve into something seasonal like the flu, that they didn't know how long the effectiveness of the vaccines would last, and that we might need boosters. Yet there were a large number of people were under the impression that once they got the jab, that the game was over and were outraged when they found out that 6 months after their jab that they could still get covid.

[RiverDog]

There was one difference, though. My daughter had taken the Pfizer vaccine while my son-in-law and I both had Moderna.

Perhaps it's just a coincidence, but you have to wonder if Moderna is the better of the two, at least with regards to its response to Omicron.

That is very interesting and something that we should study. I was talking to a colleague during the Delta surge and we were thinking that they should do a study to see which vaccines were offering the best protection against that particular variant. It would be great data to track which vaccines people who had 'breakthrough' infections had received.

There were a number of other people at the wedding that came down with covid and I'm trying to get my nephew to do some research and find out if they were vaccinated/boosted and if so, which vaccine had they taken. My other nephew, the groom's brother, is an MD and was the best man at the wedding so I'm sure he'd be interested, too.

I have read some articles that indicated that the Moderna vaccine was significantly better against Delta than the Pfizer vaccine:

Research published on Friday (Sept. 22) by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that the efficacy of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine against hospitalization fell from 91 percent to 77 percent after a four-month period following the second shot. The Moderna vaccine showed no decline over the same period.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/22/heal ... cines.html

As ASF will be quick to note, those stats in that particular article refers to hospitalizations, not infections.

[Aseahawkfan]

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejmoa2034577

Finally found what I'm talking about. Posting just as an FYI as its irrelevant at this point. I thought I discussed this with Riverdog way back when the vaccines first came out, but maybe with someone else.

This is an excerpt from abstracts of the studies conducted for the vaccines. Read if you like this type of scientific writing or at least understand it.

EFFICACY
The first primary end point was the efficacy of BNT162b2 against confirmed Covid-19 with onset at least 7 days after the second dose in participants who had been without serologic or virologic evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection up to 7 days after the second dose; the second primary end point was efficacy in participants with and participants without evidence of prior infection. Confirmed Covid-19 was defined according to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) criteria as the presence of at least one of the following symptoms: fever, new or increased cough, new or increased shortness of breath, chills, new or increased muscle pain, new loss of taste or smell, sore throat, diarrhea, or vomiting, combined with a respiratory specimen obtained during the symptomatic period or within 4 days before or after it that was positive for SARS-CoV-2 by nucleic acid amplification–based testing, either at the central laboratory or at a local testing facility (using a protocol-defined acceptable test).

Major secondary end points included the efficacy of BNT162b2 against severe Covid-19. Severe Covid-19 is defined by the FDA as confirmed Covid-19 with one of the following additional features: clinical signs at rest that are indicative of severe systemic illness; respiratory failure; evidence of shock; significant acute renal, hepatic, or neurologic dysfunction; admission to an intensive care unit; or death. Details are provided in the protocol.

What this means is the following to summarize:

1. They were testing people without evidence of prior infection as natural immunity would have confounded the findings.

2. Confirmed COVID19 Disease is described by the FDA as exhibiting symptoms and confirmed COVID by a swab PCR test. That means if you were an asymptomatic carrier, it did not determine if the vaccine was effective at preventing you from transmitting COVID19.

3. Secondary check was done to determine how many positive tests had Severe COVID19 as in admission to the hospital or death.

What does this mean practically for you?

1. All the people thinking that because you test positive for COVID19 even after vaccination the vaccines don't work, well that is wrong. The vaccines never claimed to stop the presence or transmission of the virus. They were not tested for that.

What they were tested for is preventing symptomatic COVID as in the presence of the virus combined with symptoms and preventing severe COVID19 that leads to hospitalization or death with minimal side effects.

2. The vaccines proved exceedingly effective at preventing severe or symptomatic COVID19 against the original alpha variant.

3. Regardless of whether you test positive for COVID19, if you are asymptomatic then it would still effectively end the COVID19 pandemic. Thus the vaccines were still highly effective.

Now I can't remember who I had this discussion with as it obviously wasn't Riverdog or on this forum I guess. It must have been with my buddies.

It takes a lot of reading of boring and exceedingly scientific jargon to find out that the vaccines were never tested for preventing transmission, though later studies conducted during live use did seem to indicate a reduced transmission of the virus even it not a zero level.

Coronaviruses are notoriously difficult to eradicate as they mutate far quicker than many other types of viruses. So the situation we are in now is not ideal, but also not unexpected. The ideal situation would have been a stable virus that the vaccine would have effectively eradicated for intents and purposes, but I don't think many scientists were expecting this no matter how much we vaccinate because of the nature of coronaviruses.

It seems the overall world is coming around to the reality that many of us realized months ago: this is going to be endemic and we're going to have to live with it.

Personally, I still highly recommend the vaccine as preventing severe COVID is much better than hoping you don't get severe COVID. It has a very high rate of preventing severe COVID.

If you look at the idea that the COVID vaccines were supposed to prevent COVID from spreading at all, then you're going to be disappointed and think the vaccines are not working when they are working for what they were built for: reducing hospitalization and death to make COVID19 manageable.

Time to learn to live with COVID. Let's hope they can improve upon existing vaccines and treatment until COVID19 is hopefully a nuisance at best.

[Aseahawkfan]

But the difference is that nobody is requiring for you to take those other drugs. Why should there even be consequences for not taking the jab right now? The vaccinated and even boosted it seems (after 4-6 weeks) are getting/spreading COVID. I work in a place where 100's of people are tested on a weekly basis, where there is about of 50/50 split of vaccinated vs. Unvaccinated. Of the group who has tested positive over the past 2 weeks 75% are vaccinated and some boosted. I think that it is probably coincidence, but the point is that this virus is spreading quickly and it doesn't seem to care about your vaccination status.

I think there are a lot of people out there who thought the vaccines would eradicate the virus, which is why they were so much in favor of vaccine mandates.

I posted another article below. The vaccines were not built to prevent the transmission of the virus. This idea that the virus still spreading means the vaccines are not effective is a false one that I am disappointed continues to be spread.

The vaccines were created to reduce symptomatic COVID19 and hospitalization and death, which they do very well.

I'm not for mandates just because I hate being told what to do by the government. It just makes me angry as I feel when the government is given that kind of power, they will use it for other nefarious purposes under the guise of emergency powers like they do with the constant state of environmental emergency. Some people just feel better about trusting their government, but I don't. I don't like institutional entities run by people with agendas who are also making billions of dollars off those agendas using the power of government. That to me creates a very questionable moral situation.

That being said the evidence from around the world supports the findings of the companies producing the vaccines meaning they do a very good job (less so against the variants, but still more effective than a placebo or not protection) at preventing symptomatic and severe COVID reducing death and hospitalization which is what will effectively end the pandemic. What they don't do and never claimed to do is lead to zero COVID19 spread.

I wish they had better communicated this as there are a lot of people who believe because people are still testing positive for COVID19 the vaccines aren't effective, but that isn't true. They were built for a very specific purpose and they are doing that job magnificently even against many of these variants in reducing severe COVID. I highly recommend people to get vaccinated as they are exceedingly safe compared to getting COVID. All vaccines truly do is prepare your system to fight a virus prior to a live and active version of the virus entering your body, so if the live virus enters your system it already has a copy of the antibodies necessary to fight it to deploy. The additional chemicals in the vaccine are there to stabilize and extend the life of the mRNA strand used to activate your immune system.

I do believe that the Federal government should not be able to mandate it and each state and business should control that decision based on risk assessments themselves. That's my general view, while also hoping more people take the vaccine as it is an amazing scientific advancement in vaccines that people should take advantage of.

[RiverDog]

Finally found what I'm talking about. Posting just as an FYI as its irrelevant at this point. I thought I discussed this with Riverdog way back when the vaccines first came out, but maybe with someone else.

Nope, you didn't discuss this with me, but you're right, that does make a difference in our thinking of the vaccines and I appreciate your posting it as I hadn't seen it before. I read the entire article.

But it doesn't necessarily invalidate the data. All it does is raise questions regarding the methodology of the vaccine trials and the accuracy of the claim that it was 95% effective at preventing infections based on those trials. It does not speak to the substantial evidence that they have collected in the field since the vaccines were rolled out in December of 2020, both here and in other countries like Israel, that confirmed that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines had initial efficacies of 95% against infections from the original variant and an even greater efficacy against severe disease and death. They could see in very controlled environments like nursing homes that the vaccines worked with a very high degree of effectiveness and were extremely effective in reducing the spread.

Besides, the main object of the trials isn't so much to get a precise efficacy of the vaccine's ability to prevent infection. Who cares if it's 95% or just 85%? A good ball park estimate will suffice. The major goal of the trials is to make sure that they are safe before they roll them out nation wide, that there aren't severe side effects that didn't show up in their initial testing.

But like you say, it's all water under the bridge at this point. The vaccines, although not as effective at preventing infections and reducing the spread as they were when they first rolled out, still protect against severe illness and are critically important tools in our battle against this virus. There's other vaccines in the pipeline that have the potential to eventually eradicate the virus.

[mykc14]

I posted another article below. The vaccines were not built to prevent the transmission of the virus. This idea that the virus still spreading means the vaccines are not effective is a false one that I am disappointed continues to be spread.

The vaccines were created to reduce symptomatic COVID19 and hospitalization and death, which they do very well.

I'm not for mandates just because I hate being told what to do by the government. It just makes me angry as I feel when the government is given that kind of power, they will use it for other nefarious purposes under the guise of emergency powers like they do with the constant state of environmental emergency. Some people just feel better about trusting their government, but I don't. I don't like institutional entities run by people with agendas who are also making billions of dollars off those agendas using the power of government. That to me creates a very questionable moral situation.

That being said the evidence from around the world supports the findings of the companies producing the vaccines meaning they do a very good job (less so against the variants, but still more effective than a placebo or not protection) at preventing symptomatic and severe COVID reducing death and hospitalization which is what will effectively end the pandemic. What they don't do and never claimed to do is lead to zero COVID19 spread.

I wish they had better communicated this as there are a lot of people who believe because people are still testing positive for COVID19 the vaccines aren't effective, but that isn't true. They were built for a very specific purpose and they are doing that job magnificently even against many of these variants in reducing severe COVID. I highly recommend people to get vaccinated as they are exceedingly safe compared to getting COVID. All vaccines truly do is prepare your system to fight a virus prior to a live and active version of the virus entering your body, so if the live virus enters your system it already has a copy of the antibodies necessary to fight it to deploy. The additional chemicals in the vaccine are there to stabilize and extend the life of the mRNA strand used to activate your immune system.

I do believe that the Federal government should not be able to mandate it and each state and business should control that decision based on risk assessments themselves. That's my general view, while also hoping more people take the vaccine as it is an amazing scientific advancement in vaccines that people should take advantage of.

I agree with most of this. I think that the vaccines are vital tools and appear to be a great medical achievement. I think anybody who has a high risk of a poor reaction aught to get a COVID vaccination to protect themselves, but like you said, it shouldn't be mandated. I also believe our government has villainized unvaccinated Americas as selfish and misrepresented the idea that the pandemic would have ended had we just taken the shot. People do stupid things. People who went to work sick, sent their kids to school sick, etc have done more to lead to the continuation of the pandemic than anything else. There is no doubt that a majority of them were unvaccinated, but I have seen many vaccinated parents send kids to school, go out in public without masks when they are sick, etc over the past month than at any other time during the pandemic. I have asked a few why they are doing this and there response is typicall, "because this strain isn't that bad and I'm ready for this to be over." At the end of the day combating COVID wasn't just about vaccines. It was about making smart personal choices that reduced the spread and made you less likely to overwhelm the hospital system.