Ukraine

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Re: Ukraine

Postby RiverDog » Fri Apr 08, 2022 1:35 pm

I-5 wrote:Being the war in Ukraine is only a month old, I think its relevant to mention WW2 or Vietnam in terms of harm to civilians. When all is said and done, I wouldn’t bet against Putin trying to live up to his idol Stalin in terms of brutality. He clearly worships Stalin, and maybe only Stalin out of the entire history of Russia and the USSR.


The Khmer Rouge wasn't exactly a group of choir boys, either. But again, no cell phone cameras and videos.

I understand your outrage, and I'm right there with you. As I said earlier, the latest revelation of atrocities committed by the Russians is pushing me closer to advocating that we get involved militarily, harder and harder to sit still and just watch.
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Re: Ukraine

Postby I-5 » Sat Apr 09, 2022 6:26 pm

There are unfortunutely many examples I didnt mention - and I have read a lot about Pol Pot and the Khmer Rouge. Thats an example of a terrible rot from within instead if an invading army - but with similar horrific results. The only good thing about it being 2022 is that to your point, there is substantially way more digital evidence of war crimes, and I’m glad the Ukrainians are able to pinpoint exactly which Russian units are in each hamlet, down to the names of soldiers. Good.

Right now, everyone is aware of the significance of May 9 in Russia, one of the most important days in the country to celebrate their defeat of Nazi Germany in WW2. They’re going to look for something to celebrate in Ukraine, probably re-taking Donbass, which means another massacre of civilians, sadly. Ive read Russian casualties are nearing 20k, which is truly mind boggling. We are learning that modern tactics can beat old school platforms, even with such a huge difference in firepower. That, and the superiority of Ukraine troops that are better trained with western weapons and believe in their cause over Russians that clearly dont want to be there.
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Re: Ukraine

Postby Hawktawk » Sat Apr 09, 2022 7:09 pm

The lesson for the free world is that Putin does not give a flying F about human life . That’s scary for the entire planet . I remain deeply concerned as long as the most evil man on the planet remains in power .the nuclear football is being being carried at all time by his aiide. Very dangerous .please can someone pop him between the eyes ?
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Re: Ukraine

Postby RiverDog » Sat Apr 09, 2022 7:16 pm

I-5 wrote:There are unfortunutely many examples I didnt mention - and I have read a lot about Pol Pot and the Khmer Rouge. Thats an example of a terrible rot from within instead if an invading army - but with similar horrific results. The only good thing about it being 2022 is that to your point, there is substantially way more digital evidence of war crimes, and I’m glad the Ukrainians are able to pinpoint exactly which Russian units are in each hamlet, down to the names of soldiers. Good.


The problem is that a lot of people won't believe that digital evidence. Just look at how many people think that Donald Trump defeated Biden? How many people believe in these crack pot conspiracy theories? Even perfectly rational, sane people can wonder with considerable justification if it isn't a bunch of deepfake stuff.

I-5 wrote:Right now, everyone is aware of the significance of May 9 in Russia, one of the most important days in the country to celebrate their defeat of Nazi Germany in WW2. They’re going to look for something to celebrate in Ukraine, probably re-taking Donbass, which means another massacre of civilians, sadly. Ive read Russian casualties are nearing 20k, which is truly mind boggling. We are learning that modern tactics can beat old school platforms, even with such a huge difference in firepower. That, and the superiority of Ukraine troops that are better trained with western weapons and believe in their cause over Russians that clearly dont want to be there.


Agreed.

It looks like the war is going to turn into one of attrition, who can outlast who. But as I have debated with ASF, the longer this war goes on, the larger the impact the sanctions will have.

One of the side stories is what Finland and Sweden might do. Russia has threatened them for decades not to even think about joining NATO, but the Ukraine war has changed their thinking.

NATO officials told CNN that discussions about Sweden and Finland joining the bloc have gotten extremely serious since Russia's invasion, and US senior State Department officials said the matter came up at this week's NATO foreign ministerial, which was attended by the foreign ministers from Stockholm and Helsinki.

Public opinion in both countries about joining the defensive alliance has shifted significantly as Russia's war in Ukraine wages on, with one former Finnish Prime Minister telling CNN the move to join "was pretty much a done deal on the 24th of February, when Russia invaded."

"If you look at public opinion in Finland and Sweden, and how their views have changed dramatically over the past six weeks, I think it's another example of how this has been a strategic failure," one senior US State Department official said this week.

Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin said Friday that her country's Parliament is set to discuss possible NATO membership "within the coming weeks," adding that she hopes these discussions will wrap up "before midsummer."

Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson did not rule out the possibility of membership in an interview with SVT at the end of March. Sweden is undertaking an analysis of security policy that's due to be completed by the end of May, and the government is expected to announce its position following that report, a Swedish official told CNN. They said their nation could make its position public sooner, depending on when neighboring Finland does.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/fi ... uxbndlbing
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Re: Ukraine

Postby I-5 » Sun Apr 10, 2022 9:30 pm

I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I think it’s time to call Putin on his bluff and start by transferring those Polish MIGS to Ukraine. As a former US Ambassador to Ukraine recently said, why do we have to play by rules Putin sets? He doesn’t respect rules himself. The daily horrors of intentional homicide, looting, and raping of women and children cannot continue without the world trying to do something. It’s pure evil, and it must be stopped.

As far as people not believing that Russia is indeed committing war crimes - I say so $&@ what! It’s irrelevant what they think. There should and there will be investigations, and people will be tried in a war crimes court. Every day, more and more intercepted calls of Russian soldiers calling their wives and gf’s in Russia reveal all the crimes witnesses have detailed, including shooting kids in the legs, stealing everything and anything. I notice even russian trolls have stopped commenting trying to spin it into somehow a positive thing. I’m confident a substantial majority of people including people in Russia know what’s going on. It’s mostly the older russian population that are easily brainwashed, but most russians aren’t dumb. They know what’s going on - it’s just that a lot of them are ok with it, based on the intercepted calls Ive listened to. As long it brings in money and goods, they’re mostly ok with the atrocities.

I do think Russia will lose and has already lost the war, they’re just going to stick it out longer and kill another million Ukrainians and Russians. That’s Putin’s M.O.
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Re: Ukraine

Postby RiverDog » Mon Apr 11, 2022 4:54 am

I-5 wrote:I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I think it’s time to call Putin on his bluff and start by transferring those Polish MIGS to Ukraine. As a former US Ambassador to Ukraine recently said, why do we have to play by rules Putin sets? He doesn’t respect rules himself. The daily horrors of intentional homicide, looting, and raping of women and children cannot continue without the world trying to do something. It’s pure evil, and it must be stopped.


Agreed. Like you, I am becoming a lot more hawkish. One of the problems is that Putin knows that we won't call his bluff. He perceives Biden as being a weakling. It's a poker game, and unless you're willing to call, the bettor will take the pot regardless of how good his cards are. Transferring the MIGS would be an escalation, but it would be one step below declaring a no fly zone, which IMO should be on the table as well.

I-5 wrote:As far as people not believing that Russia is indeed committing war crimes - I say so $&@ what! It’s irrelevant what they think. There should and there will be investigations, and people will be tried in a war crimes court. Every day, more and more intercepted calls of Russian soldiers calling their wives and gf’s in Russia reveal all the crimes witnesses have detailed, including shooting kids in the legs, stealing everything and anything. I notice even russian trolls have stopped commenting trying to spin it into somehow a positive thing. I’m confident a substantial majority of people including people in Russia know what’s going on. It’s mostly the older russian population that are easily brainwashed, but most russians aren’t dumb. They know what’s going on - it’s just that a lot of them are ok with it, based on the intercepted calls Ive listened to. As long it brings in money and goods, they’re mostly ok with the atrocities.


I was responding to your comment about there being more photographic and video evidence and was pointing out how many people don't or won't believe it. There is far more skepticism of reporting today than there ever has been in my lifetime, and not all of it is unjustified.

I-5 wrote:I do think Russia will lose and has already lost the war, they’re just going to stick it out longer and kill another million Ukrainians and Russians. That’s Putin’s M.O.


It depends on the definition of winning. I don't think that the Russians are going to achieve all of their pre-invasion objectives and that they'll have to withdraw from at least some of Ukraine. But the longer this thing drags out, the worse the outcome for the Russians.
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Re: Ukraine

Postby I-5 » Mon Apr 11, 2022 3:17 pm

I’ll take it further, Riv. I think Ukraine should first and foremost ultimately disallow any Russian presence in Ukraine - including taking back Crimea. The only way they can do that is to complete deplete and demoralize the Russian army. The only things the Russian army has proven it can do effectively so far since they invaded Ukraine are shell cities, especially residential areas, and murder and terrorize civilians, but they haven’t done much damage to the Ukrainian forces. Russia either has or will soon run out of conscripts from the poor rural areas - who will they go to next? I think they already have fighters and contractors from other places, so that’s not a limitless well, either. The only language Putin respects is force, so that’s the only way for Ukraine to save itself.
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Re: Ukraine

Postby RiverDog » Mon Apr 11, 2022 6:22 pm

I'm still holding out hope that the Russian leadership will take care of Putin themselves. They can't all be delusional. He'd better have about 5-6 people tasting all the food he's served.
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Re: Ukraine

Postby Aseahawkfan » Tue Apr 12, 2022 4:18 pm

I-5 wrote:There are unfortunutely many examples I didnt mention - and I have read a lot about Pol Pot and the Khmer Rouge. Thats an example of a terrible rot from within instead if an invading army - but with similar horrific results. The only good thing about it being 2022 is that to your point, there is substantially way more digital evidence of war crimes, and I’m glad the Ukrainians are able to pinpoint exactly which Russian units are in each hamlet, down to the names of soldiers. Good.

Right now, everyone is aware of the significance of May 9 in Russia, one of the most important days in the country to celebrate their defeat of Nazi Germany in WW2. They’re going to look for something to celebrate in Ukraine, probably re-taking Donbass, which means another massacre of civilians, sadly. Ive read Russian casualties are nearing 20k, which is truly mind boggling. We are learning that modern tactics can beat old school platforms, even with such a huge difference in firepower. That, and the superiority of Ukraine troops that are better trained with western weapons and believe in their cause over Russians that clearly dont want to be there.


I did a paper that looked at the Khmer Rouge. They used to send advance military groups into the areas they planned to control to disarm the populace prior to weeding out the unwanted or massacring them. It was a paper on the 2nd Amendment and why I so strongly support citizens being able to own at least the arms of a soldier aka an assault rifle and a pistol. I don't believe a disarmed people have real government power. Every political science class I have been in clearly shows government is done by force. Any government that cannot exert control over the governed by force is not a solvent government and has no real power.

It's why when I hear people tell me the 2nd Amendment is just for militias and we don't need them now, I have to chuckle at their complete lack of understanding that the 2nd Amendment was created to ensure a balance of military power between the citizenry and the government because if you do not have that, you are not a free people at all. You are a people hoping the government never decides to tyrannize you or take from you because they will do it by force and there is not much you can do about it if you do not possess that force yourself.

Ukraine is yet another lesson that people should never think of themselves as willing to give up their weapons because you never know when you will need them to fight off either internal tyranny or an external tyrant like Putin. That's why I hope America never lays aside the 2nd Amendment or their weapons as long as they consider themselves a free people who govern their nation.

If some scumbag like Putin comes here, they will find us far more ready than any nation on the planet with an army the size of our population well armed and ready to defend their freedom. One of the major factors I found during my 2nd Amendment paper was if a tyrant could disarm or control arms amongst the population, it made them far easier to tyrannize. Because you need not only the weapon itself to fight, but the will to use it. You lose that will and learn to fear weapons if they are not in use by the general population. They become nonproficient with the weapon and it becomes a tool of fear to your populace that when brandished is all that is necessary to cow them.

I'm glad Ukraine armed their people and they were willing to fight. No better defense against an invader or tyrant than a well-armed population with the will to fight.
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Re: Ukraine

Postby Aseahawkfan » Tue Apr 12, 2022 4:24 pm

RiverDog wrote:I'm still holding out hope that the Russian leadership will take care of Putin themselves. They can't all be delusional. He'd better have about 5-6 people tasting all the food he's served.


They're not delusional. Putin vetted them to all be loyal to him. It isn't like America where a bunch of people are involved in appointing people or they are hired by some bureau. Putin personally installs people loyal to him, carefully vetted, and willing to carry out acts of violence on his behalf to maintain his power. Putin doesn't need to ask anyone to do this or go through the courts or allow reporters in the room to make sure he's following the rules. He's the power in Russia. You don't reach that level without carefully vetting the people directly around you.

I really think Americans don't grasp how people like Putin build up the power they have in their nation. It's not by being casual or going through some open process for appointment. People like Putin stay in power 20 plus years by very carefully selecting the people around them, murdering or jailing anyone around them without going through the courts or by appointing judges who do what you say, and generally being willing to do the vile stuff necessary to hold absolute power in Russia for 20 plus years.

Putin is like The Godfather on steroids. It's hard to take someone out who has set himself up with that much power.

But he won't escape Father Time. He'll die at some point. I hope after that no one is strong enough to take his place and they fall into infighting that dissolves the power Putin had built back up.
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Re: Ukraine

Postby I-5 » Tue Apr 12, 2022 5:31 pm

Aseahawkfan wrote:Putin is like The Godfather on steroids. It's hard to take someone out who has set himself up with that much power.

But he won't escape Father Time. He'll die at some point. I hope after that no one is strong enough to take his place and they fall into infighting that dissolves the power Putin had built back up.


I was thinking exactly the same thing the other day. Putin is the ultimate Mafia boss in human history, except that instead of running a gang, he runs the largest country in the world. But after this latest invasion and the global reaction to it, he will also be a pariah just like a mafia boss. I hope to never ever seen him attend a meeting with leaders from the West, because doing so would legitimize everything he's doing. I think Russians, even the ones that support him, have an inkling that Russia may not crawl back to it's former standing in the world for at least 1-2 generations.
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Re: Ukraine

Postby RiverDog » Mon May 16, 2022 5:49 am

It looks like the Russians may have chit in their own nest.

Finland is poised to join NATO, the only question being if they can overcome Turkey's objections, and it sounds as if they will. Sweden is widely expected to follow suit. Now, instead of having a buffer of neutral countries on their border, Sweden and Finland's entry into NATO will tie up a loose end, give NATO a strategic position on the Baltic from which to monitor Russian fleet movements. They're going to be in a worse position than they would have had Ukraine joined the alliance.

There is very little militarily that the Russians can do to counter this move. Their army is performing horribly, with some estimates that they've lost up to 1/3 of their combat troops. They've actually pulled resources out of areas near Finland in order to support their invasion of Ukraine. Their only options are to use nuclear weapons as a threat, an option that already exists.

It's going to take a generation for the Russians to repair the damage they've done to the trust that once existed with the west. They've awakened a sleeping giant, united NATO like they haven't been since the creation of the alliance at the end of WW2.

So what's the Russians next move? What can or will they do in retaliation to Finland and Sweden joining NATO?
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Re: Ukraine

Postby c_hawkbob » Mon May 16, 2022 6:23 am

There are also rumors that Putin is quite Ill and a coup is already underway. There is a video of him holing out his had to shake the hand of a visiting dignitary and his hand shaking worse than that of Michael J Fox until he steadies it with his other hand.
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Re: Ukraine

Postby RiverDog » Mon May 16, 2022 7:53 am

c_hawkbob wrote:There are also rumors that Putin is quite Ill and a coup is already underway. There is a video of him holing out his had to shake the hand of a visiting dignitary and his hand shaking worse than that of Michael J Fox until he steadies it with his other hand.


I hadn't heard about that. Sounds like Parkinson's disease. I knew that he's been fighting cancer.

I've always thought that a coup was a strong possibility, but I worry about who might replace him. Will it be a Gorbachev or a Stalin?
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Re: Ukraine

Postby Aseahawkfan » Mon May 16, 2022 1:55 pm

c_hawkbob wrote:There are also rumors that Putin is quite Ill and a coup is already underway. There is a video of him holing out his had to shake the hand of a visiting dignitary and his hand shaking worse than that of Michael J Fox until he steadies it with his other hand.


I hope so. I hope he is weak due to sickness. That's when you can take down scum like Putin. When they are weak and their supporters can see it. Men like Putin like to rule by strength and when that strength is gone the mad dogs they surround themselves with are their to take him down.
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Re: Ukraine

Postby RiverDog » Tue May 17, 2022 3:03 am

c_hawkbob wrote:There are also rumors that Putin is quite Ill and a coup is already underway. There is a video of him holing out his had to shake the hand of a visiting dignitary and his hand shaking worse than that of Michael J Fox until he steadies it with his other hand.


Aseahawkfan wrote:I hope so. I hope he is weak due to sickness. That's when you can take down scum like Putin. When they are weak and their supporters can see it. Men like Putin like to rule by strength and when that strength is gone the mad dogs they surround themselves with are their to take him down.


There's not many people in this world that I truly wish death upon, but Putin is one of them.

But as I said earlier, what matters is who replaces him. Are we going to get a madman every bit as bad if not worse than Putin or will we get a reformer?
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Re: Ukraine

Postby RiverDog » Tue May 17, 2022 4:40 am

It looks like Putin might be back peddling some on Finland and Sweden:

“Russia has no problems with Finland and Sweden, and in this sense, expansion (joining NATO) at the expense of these countries does not create an immediate threat for us,” Putin said in televised remarks. “But the expansion of military infrastructure into this territory will certainly provoke our response.”

That's a little softer than his previous statements in that until yesterday, he never said that they had 'no problems' with the two countries joining NATO. Now he's adding a qualifier that probably won't happen anyway.

Finland and Sweden already have a relatively robust military and placing missiles a couple hundred miles closer to the Russian border likely doesn't increase NATO's defense capability very much. The two countries' militaries already work closely with NATO and member countries, so their joining the alliance is likely more symbolic and political in nature than it is an actual change in military posture.
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Re: Ukraine

Postby Aseahawkfan » Wed May 25, 2022 10:23 pm

https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2022/04/05/1090920442/how-russia-rescued-the-ruble

Russia, China, and quite a few of our enemies have been looking to take the dollar out as the reserve currency. They are still working at it. I want to see if they are successful. It's a hard move to pull off. It really depends on how much cooperation they can get.
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Re: Ukraine

Postby Hawktawk » Fri Feb 24, 2023 2:35 pm

Ugggggh. This hasn’t aged well . I agreed we needed to support Ukraine and I still do .

However I wasn’t impressed with Biden’s all in heroic commander in chief Appearance in Kiev . Yeah ballsy with air raid sirens blazing but this is already a straight up proxy war between the 2 biggest nuclear powers on the planet .

We don’t need potus grandstanding and thumbing his nose at the madman putin . There needs to be a serious effort put into turning down the volume and trying to find a way to de-escalate . China currently stands on the brink of providing lethal aid to Russia right now . It’s staggering the ineptitude of Russias conventional forces vs western weapons . It makes them more dangerous imo . Anyway wow , a year . My feelings of dread were on the money most unfortunately .
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Re: Ukraine

Postby RiverDog » Sat Feb 25, 2023 8:15 am

At some point, there has to be an end game to our support of Ukraine. There's reports that we're sacrificing our own readiness, that we wouldn't have sufficient weapons should we get into some sort of conflict with China, and all this government spending on the ammunition and supplies we're sending to them is inflationary and is damaging our own economy at a time when inflation is back on the rise again. How long can we afford to throw money into a bottomless pit? Is this another Vietnam, a stalemate with no end in sight?
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Re: Ukraine

Postby Aseahawkfan » Sat Feb 25, 2023 1:24 pm

RiverDog wrote:At some point, there has to be an end game to our support of Ukraine. There's reports that we're sacrificing our own readiness, that we wouldn't have sufficient weapons should we get into some sort of conflict with China, and all this government spending on the ammunition and supplies we're sending to them is inflationary and is damaging our own economy at a time when inflation is back on the rise again. How long can we afford to throw money into a bottomless pit? Is this another Vietnam, a stalemate with no end in sight?


I don't see why we would stop our support. We don't abandon nations fighting against tyrants for their freedom. Oh wait, I guess since Vietnam we do do that. Americans no longer feel the need to invest in the support of Democracy and freedom worldwide. We continue to abandon nations to tyrants and Communists because "we're the real bad guy" causing the problems or we're more concerned about our spending. Now I see Republicans have become like Democrats with no iron to fight tyrants any longer with different excuses than the Democrats when they abandoned the Vietnamese because China made it tougher to fight them. Now we don't want to back Ukraine against Russia.

The playbook is now wait for America to give up and Americans to vacillate on their mission to fight tyrants and support Democracy. This was taught to everyone due to Vietnam where the anti-war propaganda machine spread the idea we were the bad guys, even when history has clearly shown the Communist Vietnamese were terrible to their people after we left.

Never thought I'd see an America where both Democrats and Republicans no longer want to defend freedom or fight tyrants because its too hard or expensive. Glad we still had steel in our balls during World War 2 or that might have had a different outcome as well.
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Re: Ukraine

Postby RiverDog » Sat Feb 25, 2023 3:16 pm

RiverDog wrote:At some point, there has to be an end game to our support of Ukraine. There's reports that we're sacrificing our own readiness, that we wouldn't have sufficient weapons should we get into some sort of conflict with China, and all this government spending on the ammunition and supplies we're sending to them is inflationary and is damaging our own economy at a time when inflation is back on the rise again. How long can we afford to throw money into a bottomless pit? Is this another Vietnam, a stalemate with no end in sight?


Aseahawkfan wrote:I don't see why we would stop our support. We don't abandon nations fighting against tyrants for their freedom. Oh wait, I guess since Vietnam we do do that. Americans no longer feel the need to invest in the support of Democracy and freedom worldwide. We continue to abandon nations to tyrants and Communists because "we're the real bad guy" causing the problems or we're more concerned about our spending. Now I see Republicans have become like Democrats with no iron to fight tyrants any longer with different excuses than the Democrats when they abandoned the Vietnamese because China made it tougher to fight them. Now we don't want to back Ukraine against Russia.

The playbook is now wait for America to give up and Americans to vacillate on their mission to fight tyrants and support Democracy. This was taught to everyone due to Vietnam where the anti-war propaganda machine spread the idea we were the bad guys, even when history has clearly shown the Communist Vietnamese were terrible to their people after we left.

Never thought I'd see an America where both Democrats and Republicans no longer want to defend freedom or fight tyrants because its too hard or expensive. Glad we still had steel in our balls during World War 2 or that might have had a different outcome as well.


Not only did we do it in Vietnam, but we left North Korea to the communists and we left Afghanistan to the Taliban.

I'm not saying that we pull out the carpet on Ukraine right now, just that there has to be some sort of end game. What's your limit? Do we keep sending them billions of dollars per year for another 2 years? 5 years? Maybe 10 years?
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Re: Ukraine

Postby Hawktawk » Sat Feb 25, 2023 3:24 pm

RiverDog wrote:At some point, there has to be an end game to our support of Ukraine. There's reports that we're sacrificing our own readiness, that we wouldn't have sufficient weapons should we get into some sort of conflict with China, and all this government spending on the ammunition and supplies we're sending to them is inflationary and is damaging our own economy at a time when inflation is back on the rise again. How long can we afford to throw money into a bottomless pit? Is this another Vietnam, a stalemate with no end in sight?


I saw an interview with Biden where he made some vague comment about another year . Gawd he looks and sounds terrible.

It’s been made clear by pentagon brass that we are not capable of fighting wars in 2 theaters for several years . It’s not affected by what’s happening over there to any great degree . As for weapons production causing inflation sometimes I think we are spoiled . We pay more and Ukrainians shiver in darkness after their power plants get blasted over and over .


Riv it’s a mess but what do you do ? It’s not Vietnam with US troops fighting Russian backed native citizens in their own country . This is Hitler with nukes attacking a democracy , pro western nation . Their forces have been greatly weakened in the past year . Do we fold up now ? Russia would knock off Ukraine without western munitions . Then what ? Poland ? Sweden ? Appeasement . This is Hitler . The best would be some negotiated settlement but not sure either Putin or Zelenski will give an inch .
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Re: Ukraine

Postby Aseahawkfan » Sat Feb 25, 2023 3:48 pm

RiverDog wrote:Not only did we do it in Vietnam, but we left North Korea to the communists and we left Afghanistan to the Taliban.

I'm not saying that we pull out the carpet on Ukraine right now, just that there has to be some sort of end game. What's your limit? Do we keep sending them billions of dollars per year for another 2 years? 5 years? Maybe 10 years?


Until we win and Putin is broken. Same as we did with the Soviet Union and the Germans and the Japanese.

We pushed the North Koreans back and saved South Korea, which is doing far and away better than North Korea. Whereas we completely abandoned Vietnam to the Communists.
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Re: Ukraine

Postby RiverDog » Sat Feb 25, 2023 5:11 pm

RiverDog wrote:Not only did we do it in Vietnam, but we left North Korea to the communists and we left Afghanistan to the Taliban.

I'm not saying that we pull out the carpet on Ukraine right now, just that there has to be some sort of end game. What's your limit? Do we keep sending them billions of dollars per year for another 2 years? 5 years? Maybe 10 years?


Aseahawkfan wrote:Until we win and Putin is broken. Same as we did with the Soviet Union and the Germans and the Japanese.

We pushed the North Koreans back and saved South Korea, which is doing far and away better than North Korea. Whereas we completely abandoned Vietnam to the Communists.


It took over 45 years to defeat the Soviet Union. We beat the Germans and Japanese because we had the public nearly 100% behind us, including all of Congress save one Representative. We conducted a no holds barred, all out warfare, dropped a couple of nukes on a nearly defenseless country that wouldn't have otherwise surrendered. We had to settle for a broker a truce in Korea that left tens of millions to suffer under a communist dictatorship and we lost the war in Vietnam because we went at it half assed and lost the public's support.

Whether you like it or not, if this war in Ukraine lasts years, if there isn't' at least some sort of light at the end of the tunnel within the next 12-18 months, there's not going to be the political support for our continuing to send billions of dollars' worth of aid at the expense of our own readiness and our economy. That's a fact that is not open for debate.

You were right (and I was wrong) about the sanctions issue, that it wouldn't influence Putin because he didn't give a rip how much his people suffered. The same logic applies with our trying to beat him by sending munitions to our surrogates. We're not going to win a war of attrition with a dictator like Putin that doesn't have to answer to his people.

If we're in the same situation at this time next year, Ukraine is going to be a hot campaign topic in the 2024 election, especially if inflation, which is on the rise again, is still not under control. You can bet your bottom dollar that if Trump gets the nomination, he'll pledge to pull funding from the Ukrainians and ride the issue to victory in 2024. Unless you want 4 more years of the orange baboon, they'd better figure something out this year.
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Re: Ukraine

Postby Aseahawkfan » Sat Feb 25, 2023 8:22 pm

RiverDog wrote:It took over 45 years to defeat the Soviet Union. We beat the Germans and Japanese because we had the public nearly 100% behind us, including all of Congress save one Representative. We conducted a no holds barred, all out warfare, dropped a couple of nukes on a nearly defenseless country that wouldn't have otherwise surrendered. We had to settle for a broker a truce in Korea that left tens of millions to suffer under a communist dictatorship and we lost the war in Vietnam because we went at it half assed and lost the public's support.

Whether you like it or not, if this war in Ukraine lasts years, if there isn't' at least some sort of light at the end of the tunnel within the next 12-18 months, there's not going to be the political support for our continuing to send billions of dollars' worth of aid at the expense of our own readiness and our economy. That's a fact that is not open for debate.

You were right (and I was wrong) about the sanctions issue, that it wouldn't influence Putin because he didn't give a rip how much his people suffered. The same logic applies with our trying to beat him by sending munitions to our surrogates. We're not going to win a war of attrition with a dictator like Putin that doesn't have to answer to his people.

If we're in the same situation at this time next year, Ukraine is going to be a hot campaign topic in the 2024 election, especially if inflation, which is on the rise again, is still not under control. You can bet your bottom dollar that if Trump gets the nomination, he'll pledge to pull funding from the Ukrainians and ride the issue to victory in 2024. Unless you want 4 more years of the orange baboon, they'd better figure something out this year.


If America means to send a message it isn't going to be beaten by tyrants like Putin, they need to start standing their ground for the long-term. If the new world government's intent including Europe is to simply look the other way why nations like Ukraine, Afghanistan, and the like get crushed suffering tyranny, then I guess they can send that message as well. Let the Putins and Kim Jongs and Taliban operate with near impunity knowing all they have to do is wait out the American weaklings who don't stand up for much of anything any more. Just a nation full of fat, digitially overstimulated, pathetic, weak people hoping hard times never come to the nation so they can eat more cheetos, watch more Netlflix, and continue to turn into creampuffs.

I guess par for the course for this new generation of looney Democrats and Republicans.
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Re: Ukraine

Postby c_hawkbob » Sat Feb 25, 2023 8:37 pm

Having an arbitrary time element determine the "exit strategy" is how we botched the Afghanistan withdrawal. Your end game must always be the completion of the mission.
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Re: Ukraine

Postby RiverDog » Sun Feb 26, 2023 3:53 am

c_hawkbob wrote:Having an arbitrary time element determine the "exit strategy" is how we botched the Afghanistan withdrawal. Your end game must always be the completion of the mission.


I wasn't saying that we should set some sort of arbitrary time element. What I am saying is that the American public does not have an endless appetite for feeding money and materials into a war that has reached a stalemate with no "completion of the mission" in sight, that there needs to be some sort of plan or end game to this current strategy of throwing open the vault and letting the Ukrainians take whatever it is they need.

Support for the current strategy has already been sliding:

Support among the American public for providing Ukraine weaponry and direct economic assistance has softened as the Russian invasion nears a grim one-year milestone, according to a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

Forty-eight percent say they favor the U.S. providing weapons to Ukraine, with 29 percent opposed and 22 percent saying they’re neither in favor nor opposed. In May 2022, less than three months into the war, 60 percent of U.S. adults said they were in favor of sending Ukraine weapons.


Even Biden's own administration has admitted that there are limits:

Privately, administration officials have warned Ukrainian officials that there is a limit to the patience of a narrowly divided Congress — and American public — for the costs of a war with no clear end.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/s ... -poll-says

If you want another 4 years of Trump, then go right ahead and keep supporting the status quo of giving the Ukrainians anything and everything they ask for.
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Re: Ukraine

Postby RiverDog » Sun Feb 26, 2023 4:11 am

Aseahawkfan wrote:If America means to send a message it isn't going to be beaten by tyrants like Putin, they need to start standing their ground for the long-term. If the new world government's intent including Europe is to simply look the other way why nations like Ukraine, Afghanistan, and the like get crushed suffering tyranny, then I guess they can send that message as well. Let the Putins and Kim Jongs and Taliban operate with near impunity knowing all they have to do is wait out the American weaklings who don't stand up for much of anything any more. Just a nation full of fat, digitially overstimulated, pathetic, weak people hoping hard times never come to the nation so they can eat more cheetos, watch more Netlflix, and continue to turn into creampuffs.

I guess par for the course for this new generation of looney Democrats and Republicans.


This isn't a generational thing. Our country never has and never will "stand their ground for the long term", at least not as it applies to a small country halfway around the world.

Look, if I had my druthers, I'd support standing our ground, too. But to do so would be ignoring a political reality and it's possible and arguably likely repercussions, ie another Donald Trump presidency.
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Re: Ukraine

Postby RiverDog » Sun Feb 26, 2023 7:24 am

Now there's news that China is considering sending lethal aid to Russia to help them in their war against Ukraine:

CIA Director William Burns said the U.S. is “confident” that China is considering providing Russia with lethal equipment for its war against Ukraine.

“We’re confident that the Chinese leadership is considering the provision of lethal equipment,” he told CBS’ “Face the Nation” in an interview set to air on Sunday. “We also don’t see that a final decision has been made yet, and we don’t see evidence of actual shipments of lethal equipment.”

https://thehill.com/policy/internationa ... interview/

It “could be a significant development” if China did decide to provide arms to Russia, Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, a Philadelphia-based think tank, said on Twitter.

He added that “artillery ammunition availability for Ukraine and Russia is arguably the single most important variable that could influence the course of the war.”


https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russ ... -rcna72353
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Re: Ukraine

Postby Hawktawk » Sun Feb 26, 2023 9:26 am

It’s not Afghanistan. They are a legitimate nation with a true brave leader and citizens of all ages are willing to fight like hell unlike the Afghans who laid down weapons we had supplied them .

All we have there in Ukraine weapons and some logistics . If we “withdraw” our financial support that nation falls , a stepping stone to greater conquests . Because if nato won’t stay in the fight for Ukraine will they really defend Poland ? It will :evil: be the same model . Threaten nuclear war, attack country , west cowers . Where’s it ending indeed ? It will be political for the reason Asea said . We are a fat lazy spoiled rotten bunch of slobs whining about inflation , fuel prices , supply chain disruptions . Damn the world . We want our cozy existence .

As for Trump putin will take all of Eastern Europe without a fight . John Bolton has said Trumps goal was to leave nato in a second term . Trumps weird relation ship with the most evil man on the planet was my first objection of many. If trump wins Ukraine is doomed .
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Re: Ukraine

Postby RiverDog » Sun Feb 26, 2023 10:42 am

Hawktawk wrote:It’s not Afghanistan. They are a legitimate nation with a true brave leader and citizens of all ages are willing to fight like hell unlike the Afghans who laid down weapons we had supplied them .

All we have there in Ukraine weapons and some logistics . If we “withdraw” our financial support that nation falls , a stepping stone to greater conquests . Because if nato won’t stay in the fight for Ukraine will they really defend Poland ? It will :evil: be the same model . Threaten nuclear war, attack country , west cowers . Where’s it ending indeed ? It will be political for the reason Asea said . We are a fat lazy spoiled rotten bunch of slobs whining about inflation , fuel prices , supply chain disruptions . Damn the world . We want our cozy existence .

As for Trump putin will take all of Eastern Europe without a fight . John Bolton has said Trumps goal was to leave nato in a second term . Trumps weird relation ship with the most evil man on the planet was my first objection of many. If trump wins Ukraine is doomed .


You're talking about the moral reasons for continuing the war effort, and I don't necessarily object to what you're saying. But the point that you and the others are missing is that politically, it is not a war that can be sustained for very much longer, at least not under the current pretense. The public is already beginning to tire of it. Biden's political opponents, despite having moral feelings that may correspond with those of which you've expressed, will sense an opportunity and will exploit it for their own political gain. After all, in politics, it's not about what's right, it's about what will get you elected.
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Re: Ukraine

Postby Hawktawk » Sun Feb 26, 2023 6:37 pm

Hawktawk wrote:It’s not Afghanistan. They are a legitimate nation with a true brave leader and citizens of all ages are willing to fight like hell unlike the Afghans who laid down weapons we had supplied them .

All we have there in Ukraine weapons and some logistics . If we “withdraw” our financial support that nation falls , a stepping stone to greater conquests . Because if nato won’t stay in the fight for Ukraine will they really defend Poland ? It will :evil: be the same model . Threaten nuclear war, attack country , west cowers . Where’s it ending indeed ? It will be political for the reason Asea said . We are a fat lazy spoiled rotten bunch of slobs whining about inflation , fuel prices , supply chain disruptions . Damn the world . We want our cozy existence .

As for Trump putin will take all of Eastern Europe without a fight . John Bolton has said Trumps goal was to leave nato in a second term . Trumps weird relation ship with the most evil man on the planet was my first objection of many. If trump wins Ukraine is doomed .


“ You're talking about the moral reasons for continuing the war effort, and I don't necessarily object to what you're saying. But the point that you and the others are missing is that politically, it is not a war that can be sustained for very much longer, at least not under the current pretense. The public is already beginning to tire of it. Biden's political opponents, despite having moral feelings that may correspond with those of which you've expressed, will sense an opportunity and will exploit it for their own political gain. After all, in politics, it's not about what's right, it's about what will get you elected.[/quote]

I concur. And it’s not trending well for Ukraine . Although the new house majority hasn’t been full speed ahead trying to shut it down they are talking about it.
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Re: Ukraine

Postby RiverDog » Sun Feb 26, 2023 7:22 pm

RiverDog wrote:You're talking about the moral reasons for continuing the war effort, and I don't necessarily object to what you're saying. But the point that you and the others are missing is that politically, it is not a war that can be sustained for very much longer, at least not under the current pretense. The public is already beginning to tire of it. Biden's political opponents, despite having moral feelings that may correspond with those of which you've expressed, will sense an opportunity and will exploit it for their own political gain. After all, in politics, it's not about what's right, it's about what will get you elected.


Hawktawk wrote:I concur. And it’s not trending well for Ukraine . Although the new house majority hasn’t been full speed ahead trying to shut it down they are talking about it.


I'm glad you agree. You're the first one that has commented who actually understands the point I'm trying to make.

At least as far as American aid goes, time is not on Ukraine's side. Currently, there are some Republican pols that are questioning Biden's approach, but it's mostly a partisan thing as most of them would oppose anything he were to propose simply because he's a Democrat. Currently, there are more people in support of sending military aid, 48%, vs. 29% opposed. That's down from 60% when the war first broke out. As those numbers continue to slip...and they will slip....opposition to Biden's policies will grow.

If China enters the game and starts sending military aid to Russia, it's going to up the stakes, scare a lot of people, and turn up the heat on the Biden administration. Time for the CIA to cut a deal with the Mafia to take out Putin.
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Re: Ukraine

Postby c_hawkbob » Mon Feb 27, 2023 7:07 am


I'm glad you agree. You're the first one that has commented who actually understands the point I'm trying to make.

Are you really that desperate for positive reinforcement? It's possible to understand and not entirely agree.
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Re: Ukraine

Postby RiverDog » Mon Feb 27, 2023 7:24 am

RiverDog wrote:I'm glad you agree. You're the first one that has commented who actually understands the point I'm trying to make.


c_hawkbob wrote:Are you really that desperate for positive reinforcement? It's possible to understand and not entirely agree.


I wasn't looking for positive reinforcement, and I'm surprised that you would suggest that I was.

I have not seen any kind of statement from you that would indicate that you understood the point I was trying to make about the changing of public opinion and the need to find a solution relatively soon, that time is not on our/the Ukrainians side. All I've seen you say regarding my comments is that an arbitrary time element is how we botched the Afghanistan withdrawal and that we needed to stay the course until the mission was completed. That's not recognizing the point I was trying to make, that is, unless you don't think aid to Ukraine will become a campaign issue and the time element is completely irrelevant.

Hawktawk and I don't agree on every aspect of this topic, but I got the impression that he understood the point I was trying to make, which is all I was looking for from you. I wasn't looking for your agreement.
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Re: Ukraine

Postby Aseahawkfan » Mon Feb 27, 2023 3:36 pm

RiverDog wrote:I wasn't looking for positive reinforcement, and I'm surprised that you would suggest that I was.

I have not seen any kind of statement from you that would indicate that you understood the point I was trying to make about the changing of public opinion and the need to find a solution relatively soon, that time is not on our/the Ukrainians side. All I've seen you say regarding my comments is that an arbitrary time element is how we botched the Afghanistan withdrawal and that we needed to stay the course until the mission was completed. That's not recognizing the point I was trying to make, that is, unless you don't think aid to Ukraine will become a campaign issue and the time element is completely irrelevant.

Hawktawk and I don't agree on every aspect of this topic, but I got the impression that he understood the point I was trying to make, which is all I was looking for from you. I wasn't looking for your agreement.



I fully expect America to give up again as that has become our pattern. I expect them to come up with some politically expedient reason to pull back or come to some accord where a portion of Ukraine is retained and likely divided up. Then I expect history to repeat itself as America and Europe once again made the mistake of empowering their enemies to their long-term detriment which will eventually cost them a lot of global power as they find nations like China and Russia rebuilt sufficient power to exert global influence in a world where America and Europe no longer appear as attractive options to ally with. Old, weakened nations that have lost their culture and identity trying to force a cultural and social paradigm on the world that not many nations want.

This is not the America that won in World War 2 or that dominated the past 50 or 60 years with a lot of tough as nails people descended from people that came to a new land and carved out a powerful and productive nation. All I see across the sea in places like China is a hunger for success that we don't have in America as strong as it was. Instead we're dealing with fentanyl and heroin addiction, teaching future generations that they all have mental disorders, and a decaying culture that no longer values family or work ethic as important. I wonder what this nation will look like in 50 years with the looney left and right continuing their path to an insane, divided and culturally strange America.

How do you help other nations when you can't even fix the issues in your own nation with an abundance of resources to do so?
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Re: Ukraine

Postby RiverDog » Tue Feb 28, 2023 4:44 am

Aseahawkfan wrote:I fully expect America to give up again as that has become our pattern. I expect them to come up with some politically expedient reason to pull back or come to some accord where a portion of Ukraine is retained and likely divided up. Then I expect history to repeat itself as America and Europe once again made the mistake of empowering their enemies to their long-term detriment which will eventually cost them a lot of global power as they find nations like China and Russia rebuilt sufficient power to exert global influence in a world where America and Europe no longer appear as attractive options to ally with. Old, weakened nations that have lost their culture and identity trying to force a cultural and social paradigm on the world that not many nations want.

This is not the America that won in World War 2 or that dominated the past 50 or 60 years with a lot of tough as nails people descended from people that came to a new land and carved out a powerful and productive nation. All I see across the sea in places like China is a hunger for success that we don't have in America as strong as it was. Instead we're dealing with fentanyl and heroin addiction, teaching future generations that they all have mental disorders, and a decaying culture that no longer values family or work ethic as important. I wonder what this nation will look like in 50 years with the looney left and right continuing their path to an insane, divided and culturally strange America.

How do you help other nations when you can't even fix the issues in your own nation with an abundance of resources to do so?


You can't compare America's involvement in WW2 to the subsequent proxy wars since then. First off, in WW2, we were attacked directly before entering, suffering over 2,000 American deaths, which represented a clear threat that everyone could understand. Literally overnight, the Pearl Harbor attack galvanized public opinion. Prior to then, there was a very sizable anti war sentiment against our involvement. Without Pearl Harbor, we may not have entered the war, or at least not prosecuted it with the vengeance that we did and stayed the course for nearly 4 years.

Secondly, it was a different day and time. The press was obedient servants of the government and rarely wrote anything negative about our participation. Atrocities on our side were never spoken of. No TV images beamed directly into the living rooms on the home front. And even in that environment, by the time August of 1945 had rolled around, public sentiment had begun to change. Had Japan not surrendered when they did, had we not dropped the two nukes and had to invade their home islands, our country likely would not have continued to support a policy of unconditional surrender.

You can blame a lot of things on the younger generations, but you can't blame our attitude towards these proxy wars on the other side of the ocean on them. We've always had that attitude, going all the way back to the founding of the nation when George Washington advised the country to avoid foreign entanglements.

A retired general, Wesley Clark, wrote a very good article regarding the prosecution of the war in Ukraine that I suggest that you and the others read. Here's a couple of excerpts that highlights my concerns:

But what might appear to be a thus-far brilliantly managed containment of Russian aggression is balanced on a welter of conflicting concerns and seems to lack a specific goal.

The emerging strategy seems aimed at "bleeding out" the Russian aggression, albeit at a very high cost in Ukrainian casualties, even though virtually every analysis shows that Putin is driven by geostrategic aims and is not deterred by huge losses.

The war has thus become fundamentally a war of resources – what Russia can mobilize versus what the West can and will provide. But can Putin be persuaded to give up before Ukraine loses the support of the West?

Most wars are usually ended by negotiations, but negotiations ensue only when one side or the other foresees losing on the battlefield, and the outcome of such negotiations reflects battlefield outcomes. Putin is determined, but he is not irrational. He must be convinced he is losing to be persuaded to come to the negotiating table.

Simply holding the line in Donbas is unlikely to be sufficient, no matter the extent of Russian losses. This argues for a more pointed strategy: One that enables Ukraine to threaten what Putin most values – Crimea – while also holding in Donbas. With Crimea, Russia achieves military dominance of the Black Sea, control over its natural resources, as well as threatening Ukraine's economic lifeline to the West. But Crimea is not Russia’s; it is legally part of Ukraine. It was seized in early 2014 by a Russian military operation. The West has maintained selective sanctions on Russia for nearly nine years to punish Russian aggression there.

In coming months, Ukraine should receive more of the tools it needs to counterattack successfully, closing the land bridge and advancing into Crimea.

Absent this reinforcement of Ukrainian capabilities, the battle in Ukraine is likely to seesaw back and forth inconclusively into the next year, with increasing risks of Western frustration and Russian escalation.


https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/ ... 322437002/

In other words, Ukraine can't win this simply by fighting a war of attrition. Putin doesn't care how many men and materials he expends in the war and he doesn't have to worry about attitudes and opinions on his home front, at least not to the same degree as the West does. He knows that we do not have the stomach for a years long effort. The Ukrainians need to go on the offensive, start attacking assets that Putin values, put his regime at risk, make him start sweating.

This is what I was talking about in my previous remarks. You guys are ignoring a political reality. You can't just say "We stay the course until the mission is completed" or "You can't set an arbitrary time limit". To do so is the equivalent of sticking your heads in the sand. The time factor is NOT arbitrary. The problem is the 2024 elections, the campaign of which begins in earnest about this time next year. If something isn't done by then to at least show some positive results, Biden is going to lose support and it will pave the way for another 4 years of Trump.
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Re: Ukraine

Postby MackStrongIsMyHero » Tue Feb 28, 2023 11:28 am

Thanks for that info, River. I think that's spot on. Ukraine has to make a big move in the very near future. Several Western made modern MBT's are scheduled to arrive soon in addition to all the other light AFV's already in place. The Ukrainian Army must then be trained to use these effectively within modern combined-arms tactics. They need to throw a haymaker at Putin's forces; kicking him out of Crimea would certainly qualify. Otherwise, public opinion will completely turn against a drawn-out war of attrition.
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Re: Ukraine

Postby RiverDog » Tue Feb 28, 2023 12:15 pm

MackStrongIsMyHero wrote:Thanks for that info, River. I think that's spot on. Ukraine has to make a big move in the very near future. Several Western made modern MBT's are scheduled to arrive soon in addition to all the other light AFV's already in place. The Ukrainian Army must then be trained to use these effectively within modern combined-arms tactics. They need to throw a haymaker at Putin's forces; kicking him out of Crimea would certainly qualify. Otherwise, public opinion will completely turn against a drawn-out war of attrition.


Thanks, Mack. I'm glad you weighed in.

The paradigm needs to change. Otherwise, we're just throwing money down the toilet with nothing to show for it as it should be apparent by now that Putin isn't going to back down simply because he's losing men and material. At some point, we'll be forced to cut funding, Russia will win their war, and everything we've invested will have gone to waste.
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