Midterm Elections

[RiverDog]

I'd say if the economy was the big issue, republicans should have done much better. I do think a repudiation of Trump was a factor, but I think Roe v Wade is bigger than you think. The 2 issues together are powerful. Will be intereting to see if the republicans are ready to dump Trump. It's going to be messy, because Trump is going to try to bring everything down if he goes down. He has no limits.

Here's another poll showing that inflation was the bigger issue, 32% vs. 27%:

Asked which issue mattered most this year, nearly a third of voters nationwide (32%) said inflation, and just over a quarter (27%) said abortion.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-e ... -rcna56258

Plus, as I said, not everyone in that 27% was pro-choice. According to the results I posted earlier, only 61% of voters disagreed with the R v Wade decision, meaning that a certain number of those that felt abortion was the biggest issue are pro-life. So, if you factor that in, it knocks that 27% down to somewhere in the low 20's. And most of those that are pro-life were going to vote Democratic, anyway.

Here's another survey that lists abortion, at 6%, as the 5th most important issue, behind the economy, health care, climate, and the economy:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/131 ... ection-us/

I'm ecstatic that the R's seem poised to dump Trump, and I'm glad that most of the election deniers lost their elections. I like that part of this election more than any other result.

[c_hawkbob]

The party not in power, in a midterm with record inflation, failed to even flip a 50/50 Senate and if they flip the house it will be by a tepid margin at best. By any measure an epic fail. And the reasons are absolutely equal parts Trump and Roe v Wade. The economy is already showing signs of improving but those two issues on the right look to have legs. Looks like a glum '24 outlook for conservatives to me.

[RiverDog]

The party not in power, in a midterm with record inflation, failed to even flip a 50/50 Senate and if they flip the house it will be by a tepid margin at best. By any measure an epic fail. And the reasons are absolutely equal parts Trump and Roe v Wade. The economy is already showing signs of improving but those two issues on the right look to have legs. Looks like a glum '24 outlook for conservatives to me.

Did you honestly expect the Republicans to flip the Senate? I sure as hell didn't. The Dems were defending just 14 seats to the Republicans 21, plus 5 of those 21 R seats were open due to retirements, meaning that they weren't running an incumbent. The Dems had just one retirement. I wouldn't call that an epic fail. Nor would I consider winning more seats than you lose in the House an epic failure, either. Only when you contrast the results to the expectations can you consider it a failure. I don't even think the DNC is spinning the results of the election in a similar fashion like you are.

It's hard to tell what the outlook for 2024 will be like, but with as unpopular as Biden currently is and with even most Democrats hoping that he doesn't run again, I wouldn't declare it as a glum prospect for conservatives. I'm just hoping to all get out that we don't end up with Trump again.

[I-5]

I'm standing by my prediction, that the R's retake the House. I'm less certain about their ability to gain control of the Senate, but the way things are going, they could end up taking the upper chamber, too.

Surveys have shown that the abortion issue, as expected, has drifted well below the economy and inflation (aren't they one and the same?) as the top issue likely voters are concerned about. Surveys also show that 64% of voters think that the country is heading in the wrong direction. Biden's job approval numbers are still in the toilet, in the low 40's. Even the generic surveys of party preference, which generally tilts towards the Dems, shows a clear majority favor the R's.

Gas prices are still up, over $6.00/gallon in California. Biden has been accused of manipulating releases from the strategic oil reserve to increase Dem's chances in the midterms. The Saudis claim that he asked that they delay production cuts until after the US election. Neither are good looks and will be used by the R's in their campaign ads.

We're less than 3 weeks ahead of the election, but at this point, I see no reason to back off my prediction, and if it comes true, I'll gladly accept a tip of the hat from those of you that said the abortion issue would carry through to the midterms.

I’d say most of the spirit of this prediction is off target. The republicans are having a tougher time than expected gaining control of the House. If gas prices were as big a deal as you mentioned in the recession thread vs Roe, where would see the effect of that? Looks like the opposite is true; that despite current epic economic challenges, the party in power, usually the scapegoat, fared much better than expected. Best evidence of the power of Roe v Wade is that even stalwart conservative states rejected outright abortion bans, given the opportunity to decide with their vote. The Republican Party and slanted SCOTUS is learning some consequences of what happens when you get what you ask for. The party is going to have to reinvent or at least rebrand itself. The problem is they are still infested with lots of Trump bots.

[RiverDog]

I'm standing by my prediction, that the R's retake the House. I'm less certain about their ability to gain control of the Senate, but the way things are going, they could end up taking the upper chamber, too.

Surveys have shown that the abortion issue, as expected, has drifted well below the economy and inflation (aren't they one and the same?) as the top issue likely voters are concerned about. Surveys also show that 64% of voters think that the country is heading in the wrong direction. Biden's job approval numbers are still in the toilet, in the low 40's. Even the generic surveys of party preference, which generally tilts towards the Dems, shows a clear majority favor the R's.

Gas prices are still up, over $6.00/gallon in California. Biden has been accused of manipulating releases from the strategic oil reserve to increase Dem's chances in the midterms. The Saudis claim that he asked that they delay production cuts until after the US election. Neither are good looks and will be used by the R's in their campaign ads.

We're less than 3 weeks ahead of the election, but at this point, I see no reason to back off my prediction, and if it comes true, I'll gladly accept a tip of the hat from those of you that said the abortion issue would carry through to the midterms.

I’d say most of the spirit of this prediction is off target. The republicans are having a tougher time than expected gaining control of the House. If gas prices were as big a deal as you mentioned in the recession thread vs Roe, where would see the effect of that? Looks like the opposite is true; that despite current epic economic challenges, the party in power, usually the scapegoat, fared much better than expected. Best evidence of the power of Roe v Wade is that even stalwart conservative states rejected outright abortion bans, given the opportunity to decide with their vote. The Republican Party and slanted SCOTUS is learning some consequences of what happens when you get what you ask for. The party is going to have to reinvent or at least rebrand itself. The problem is they are still infested with lots of Trump bots.

The spirit of my prediction was off? Horsepucky! I said that the R's would retake the House but that I had my doubts about the Senate, and that's almost exactly what happened as they likely flipped the House and nearly took the Senate. I specifically expressed my doubts about the R's flipping the Senate, said that they 'could the way things were going'. I expected it to be close, and that's exactly what happened. What else could I have said that would have made it more accurate? That the R's would flip the House but just barely?

But I do agree that the Dems did much better than expected, and that some of that can be attributed to the abortion issue. But gas prices have come down in the past month and inflation has eased, so that could have had an effect, too. And as I said, I do think that the argument about democracy being under siege had some effect on turnout, that Dems that normally stayed home decided to come out, and that when you take into account that the party in power usually does poorly in the midterms, at how unpopular Biden is, how bad the economy and inflation is, that the D's did surprisingly well.

But there's no way that an objective person can call the R's performance "an epic failure" as Cbob has characterized it. Flipping one chamber of Congress and holding serve in the other is not a failure. More like a missed opportunity.

[I-5]

The spirit of my prediction was off? Horsepucky! I said that the R's would retake the House but that I had my doubts about the Senate, and that's almost exactly what happened as they likely flipped the House and nearly took the Senate. I specifically expressed my doubts about the R's flipping the Senate, said that they 'could the way things were going'. I expected it to be close, and that's exactly what happened. What else could I have said that would have made it more accurate? That the R's would flip the House but just barely?

But I do agree that the Dems did much better than expected, and that some of that can be attributed to the abortion issue. But gas prices have come down in the past month and inflation has eased, so that could have had an effect, too. And as I said, I do think that the argument about democracy being under siege had some effect on turnout, that Dems that normally stayed home decided to come out, and that when you take into account that the party in power usually does poorly in the midterms, at how unpopular Biden is, how bad the economy and inflation is, that the D's did surprisingly well.

But there's no way that an objective person can call the R's performance "an epic failure" as Cbob has characterized it. Flipping one chamber of Congress and holding serve in the other is not a failure. More like a missed opportunity.

You said, 'the way things are going, they could end up taking the upper chamber, too'. Definitely not. You also expressed doubts about the anger from Roe vs Wade lasting in multiple posts, and it's clear to most that it played an important role in the midterms. Maybe you still doubt it - that's your prerogative. Just don't be surprised if it continues to bite Repubs in the arse in future elections. I don't understand the focus on gas prices - are voters directly attributing gas prices to the Executive in Chief?

[RiverDog]

The spirit of my prediction was off? Horsepucky! I said that the R's would retake the House but that I had my doubts about the Senate, and that's almost exactly what happened as they likely flipped the House and nearly took the Senate. I specifically expressed my doubts about the R's flipping the Senate, said that they 'could the way things were going'. I expected it to be close, and that's exactly what happened. What else could I have said that would have made it more accurate? That the R's would flip the House but just barely?

But I do agree that the Dems did much better than expected, and that some of that can be attributed to the abortion issue. But gas prices have come down in the past month and inflation has eased, so that could have had an effect, too. And as I said, I do think that the argument about democracy being under siege had some effect on turnout, that Dems that normally stayed home decided to come out, and that when you take into account that the party in power usually does poorly in the midterms, at how unpopular Biden is, how bad the economy and inflation is, that the D's did surprisingly well.

But there's no way that an objective person can call the R's performance "an epic failure" as Cbob has characterized it. Flipping one chamber of Congress and holding serve in the other is not a failure. More like a missed opportunity.

You said, 'the way things are going, they could end up taking the upper chamber, too'.

And what's wrong with that? Are you honestly going to tell me that because I said the word 'could' that I really meant that they 'would' and hence what I said was wrong? Read the words exactly as I wrote them. Quit trying to twist what I said by saying crap like 'the spirit' of my prediction was off. Unless the projections are wrong and the D's hold onto the House, my prediction was spot on.

You also expressed doubts about the anger from Roe vs Wade lasting in multiple posts, and it's clear to most that it played an important role in the midterms. Maybe you still doubt it - that's your prerogative. Just don't be surprised if it continues to bite Repubs in the arse in future elections. I don't understand the focus on gas prices - are voters directly attributing gas prices to the Executive in Chief?

And I stand by that assessment. I've shown you polls and surveys that support my POV. In some areas, particularly in swing states, I'm sure that the abortion issue had a significant effect, perhaps enough to have tipped the balance in a couple of Senate races. But it wasn't the top issue. Inflation/the economy was, just like I said it would be back in June.

Besides, you can read what you want into these polls and surveys as the way the questions are written can allow for different interpretations of what the voter was thinking when they responded. If you're a devout Catholic and ardent supporter of pro life...and according to Gallop, 70% of the electorate favor at least some restrictions on abortion...and you're asked to rank the issues most important to you and you rank abortion as #1, how can they separate that response from the ardent pro choice supporter that is asked the exact same question and responds in the exact same manner? It's a little different than responding to a question about the economy as if you feel that the economy is fine, you're not likely to list it as one of your concerns.

Voters have always, and always will, attribute gas prices, and other economic factors, to the POTUS. It's hugely unfair as the POTUS has very little control over gas prices. Most voters are very simplistic and don't bother to dig into the issues like you and I do. Politicians know how stupid the average voter is and how easily they can be manipulated. I can remember Ronald Reagan telling voters in his 1980 campaign: "Ask yourself this question: Am I better off now than I was 4 years ago?" It's the KISS principle, the 15 second sound bite, and it's a major weakness of our democracy. We are led by the will of the ignorant masses.

As far as what the future holds, I don't have a clue. I want to see how this dump Trump movement plays out. That's the biggest factor for them going forward. The Dems need to make a decision on Biden, or rather, he needs to make a decision on a 2nd term. Unless the economic situation changes, I have a hard time seeing him winning re-election. But two years is a lifetime in the world of politics.

[I-5]

Quit trying to twist what I said by saying crap like 'the spirit' of my prediction was off. Unless the projections are wrong and the D's hold onto the House, my prediction was spot on.

Calm down. No one is twisting anything. Predicting the R's would win the house puts you in huge company, as that was what everyone else was predicting. But we'll see, as it's still too close to call.

I've shown you polls and surveys that support my POV. In some areas, particularly in swing states, I'm sure that the abortion issue had a significant effect, perhaps enough to have tipped the balance in a couple of Senate races. But it wasn't the top issue. Inflation/the economy was, just like I said it would be back in June.

I never said abortion was the TOP issue of this election. Maybe you think you heard that or you heard that from someone, but it wasn't from me. I said that the reversal of Roe v Wade would affect this election - and it clearly has. As a Guardian article pointed out: "while final figures are still pouring in, it is estimated that 27% of young voters aged 18-29 cast a ballot in 2022, making this the midterm election with the second highest youth voter turnout in almost three decades, after 2018. In some key battleground states, turnout was even higher, at 31%, and support for Democratic candidates was roughly over 60%, driven in large part by the fight for abortion rights after the supreme court overturned Roe v Wade."

Doesn't really matter if one doubts the power of this issue. More americans than not believe in the right to choose to have an abortion than not, and as new voters come of age, that sentiment is only going to grow. Reversing Roe v Wade could be the worst thing conservatives have done to their own party's chances imo.

[c_hawkbob]

I agree wit I5 there Riv. I think you underestimated the effect of Roe v Wade on this election and I think you are continuing to underestimate its potential effect on the 24 election. I also think you're being a bit overly testy about it, it's just a difference of opinion, nothing personal.

[RiverDog]

I agree wit I5 there Riv. I think you underestimated the effect of Roe v Wade on this election and I think you are continuing to underestimate its potential effect on the 24 election. I also think you're being a bit overly testy about it, it's just a difference of opinion, nothing personal.

I can handle the difference of opinion on the effect of Roe v Wade. What I can't handle is being told that 'the spirit' of my prediction (flip the House, maybe flip the Senate) on the election results were off. There is no opinion involved in election results and my prediction was pretty unambiguous.

And now that you poked your head back in here, if you wouldn't mind answering a question I posed to you earlier. Prior to the election, did you honestly expect that the R's were going to, or should have, flipped the Senate given the mathematical advantage the Dems had in terms of the number of seats they had to defend and the difference in retirements?

[Aseahawkfan]

Looked like a failure by both parties given the major issues each had to work with to take seats. Roe vs. Wade had an effect, but not enough. Neither did inflation and the economy have the desired effect. Neither Party did anything near a tsunami or wave or anything near it.

We'll see tomorrow if this gets worse and Donald Trump announces he's running in 2024.

[I-5]

The 'spirit' comment was aimed at your opinion on the longevity of Roe vs Wade, and whether it would run out of steam by midterms.

All the elements for were set for the incumbent party to have a bad day at the midterms; unpopular president, inflation fears, high gas prices.It didn't happen.

One thing I think everyone here can agree on is seeing Trump's hand picked candidates ending in defeat after defeat. Election deniers suffered too - go figure.

[RiverDog]

The 'spirit' comment was aimed at your opinion on the longevity of Roe vs Wade, and whether it would run out of steam by midterms.

That's not what you had indicated earlier as your 'aim' was fixed on my words concerning the Senate elections, but I'll accept what you're saying now.

All the elements for were set for the incumbent party to have a bad day at the midterms; unpopular president, inflation fears, high gas prices.It didn't happen.

"It" did happen, just not in the proportions as was expected. The opposition party is in a better position after the election than they were before. That's not a loss for the R's. They'll have the majority in one house of Congress, which is huge. It essentially brings to an end the Biden agenda.

One thing I think everyone here can agree on is seeing Trump's hand picked candidates ending in defeat after defeat. Election deniers suffered too - go figure.

Completely agree. I had seen some indications prior to the election that Trump's influence had begun to wane, but I had learned from experience not to underestimate Trump and his followers, so I didn't say anything. I'm ecstatic with that aspect of the election.

[I-5]

The opposition party is in a better position after the election than they were before. That's not a loss for the R's. They'll have the majority in one house of Congress, which is huge. It essentially brings to an end the Biden agenda.

Sen. Josh Hawley called the midterm election "the funeral" for the current GOP.

"Voters have made that clear, and in particular, the folks who did not vote for Republicans in this last election were independent voters, working-class, independent voters, folks who voted for President Obama, once upon a time, folks who then voted for President Trump but stayed home this time. We are not a majority party unless we can appeal to those voters."

This would be the first time I agree with Hawley. He got the message. Unfortunately for the party, the Roe v Wade position and current status thanks to SCOTUS is going to hang like an albatross around their neck for as long as the reversal is in place. No amount of rebranding or fresh new candidates is going to make anyone forget who tried to take women backwards a hundred years.

[c_hawkbob]

The answer is yes, I fully expected the Dems to lose control of both chambers. Then came the SCOTUS decision and I had some hope, though still was prepared for the worst.

[RiverDog]

The answer is yes, I fully expected the Dems to lose control of both chambers. Then came the SCOTUS decision and I had some hope, though still was prepared for the worst.

OK, fair enough. But it ain't no epic loss when you're starting off in that big of a hole, with a 3 to 2 disadvantage in seats to defend and 6 to 1 in retirements. I'm not sure why more people didn't pick up on those facts.

[Aseahawkfan]

OK, fair enough. But it ain't no epic loss when you're starting off in that big of a hole, with a 3 to 2 disadvantage in seats to defend and 6 to 1 in retirements. I'm not sure why more people didn't pick up on those facts.

Because prior to Trump quite a few of us didn't give a rat's ass because Congress wasn't going to be used to protect a looney president from acting like a selfish, crazy ass.

Even I barely cared about Congress or the Presidency until America decided to elect a narcissistic dumbass who likes to cause chaos to serve his own selfish purposes protected by a Republican Congress more interested in tax cuts for their corporate supporters than the well-being of the nation.

Prior to Trump. you had stupid, hypocritical rubbish going on. Just not to the level we see with Trump who seems willing to throw the country into a Civil War if he were to get enough support with a mouthpiece that is capable of winding up too many Republicans into a crazy frenzy.

[RiverDog]

OK, fair enough. But it ain't no epic loss when you're starting off in that big of a hole, with a 3 to 2 disadvantage in seats to defend and 6 to 1 in retirements. I'm not sure why more people didn't pick up on those facts.

Because prior to Trump quite a few of us didn't give a rat's ass because Congress wasn't going to be used to protect a looney president from acting like a selfish, crazy ass.

Even I barely cared about Congress or the Presidency until America decided to elect a narcissistic dumbass who likes to cause chaos to serve his own selfish purposes protected by a Republican Congress more interested in tax cuts for their corporate supporters than the well-being of the nation.

Prior to Trump. you had stupid, hypocritical rubbish going on. Just not to the level we see with Trump who seems willing to throw the country into a Civil War if he were to get enough support with a mouthpiece that is capable of winding up too many Republicans into a crazy frenzy.

But you just said that you and others didn't give a rat's ass prior to Trump. It's been 6 years since Trump was elected POTUS, and since that time, including in the runup to the 2022 midterms, I assume that you do care, so that doesn't explain the collective ignorance of these facts I described and why otherwise intelligent people would be calling a failure to launch under those circumstances "epic."

Aw, it's not worth arguing about, anyway. All of us can agree that the good news in all of this is that Trump and his moonbats suffered a severe setback and might finally be starting to auger down the toilet. I'd give anything to see this nation returned to some sense of normalcy.

[RiverDog]

Since I've made an issue out of the Senate math in the 2022 election, I thought it might be appropriate if we look ahead to what the 2024 elections might hold.

As it stands now, in 2024 the situation in the Senate will be reversed, with the Democrats having to defend 23 seats (which includes 2 independents that caucus with the Dems) while the R's will be defending just 10. So far, one Senator, Mike Braun (R-IN), has said that he will not seek re-election.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Unit ... _elections

And to take it a step further, here are the 23 states the D's are going to have to defend: WA, OR, CA, NV, AZ, NM, MT, MN, WI, MI, OH, NY, PA, NJ, MA, CT, RI, VT, DE, MD, WV, VA, and HI.

There's a lot of opportunities there for Republicans, with two solidly red states (Montana and West Virginia) and a slew of purple states, like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, New Mexico, and Nevada, that the Dems are going to have to defend.

In the meantime, the R's will be defending their 10 seats in mostly red states: UT, CO, ND, NE, MO, TX, MS, TN, IN, and FL.

https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_S ... ions,_2024

Senators up for re-election in 2024 that won their last election by 5% or less are Kristen Sinema (D-AZ), Rick Scott (R-FL), Jon Tester (D-MT), Jackie Rosen (D-NV), Ted Cruz (R-TX), and Joe Manchin (D-WV).

This will provide the R's with a huge opportunity. As the Senate is currently very evenly split, with there being either a 50/50 or 51/49 advantage to the Dems, it's only going to take a net gain of one or two seats for the R's to flip the Senate.

Given those facts, I certainly wouldn't say that the prospects for the R's look glum. Since they already control the House and have a very good chance of flipping the Senate in 2024, if the R's nominate a decent POTUS candidate and if the D's were to re-nominate a very unpopular Joe Biden, who will be 82 in November of 2024, they could end up controlling the entire government.

[Aseahawkfan]

But you just said that you and others didn't give a rat's ass prior to Trump. It's been 6 years since Trump was elected POTUS, and since that time, including in the runup to the 2022 midterms, I assume that you do care, so that doesn't explain the collective ignorance of these facts I described and why otherwise intelligent people would be calling a failure to launch under those circumstances "epic."

Aw, it's not worth arguing about, anyway. All of us can agree that the good news in all of this is that Trump and his moonbats suffered a severe setback and might finally be starting to auger down the toilet. I'd give anything to see this nation returned to some sense of normalcy.

Trump might run again. The Democrats not taking both Houses is the set up for that. If they didn't at least take the Senate, then he's almost assured of running though it seems that the Republican's just taking the House is enough.

So not sure what you're talking about. Trump is not currently done and supposedly announcing his run today as he seems to think the Republicans will take the House to protect him from impeachment.

You seem to think this is over and it's not over until Trump is done. So not sure why you are bringing this up like it's over or over the course of six years we didn't see the full extent of Trump's crazy selfishness. I didn't care a huge amount about Trump until he just got crazier and crazier and more and more selfish and stupid.

I told you a while back, when Trump is done you won't see me on the forum much. I mean done done as in I don't have to worry about this guy at all any more. But that isn't the case right now. As far as I can tell Trump plans to run again and announce today. We shall see if this annoying narcissistic loon plans to push his madness on America again.

I don't understand why the Republican Party is backing this guy's scummy behavior other than they have an agenda they want pushed and they don't care how it gets done even if they have to back a looney to do it.

[RiverDog]

But you just said that you and others didn't give a rat's ass prior to Trump. It's been 6 years since Trump was elected POTUS, and since that time, including in the runup to the 2022 midterms, I assume that you do care, so that doesn't explain the collective ignorance of these facts I described and why otherwise intelligent people would be calling a failure to launch under those circumstances "epic."

Aw, it's not worth arguing about, anyway. All of us can agree that the good news in all of this is that Trump and his moonbats suffered a severe setback and might finally be starting to auger down the toilet. I'd give anything to see this nation returned to some sense of normalcy.

Trump might run again. The Democrats not taking both Houses is the set up for that. If they didn't at least take the Senate, then he's almost assured of running though it seems that the Republican's just taking the House is enough.

So not sure what you're talking about. Trump is not currently done and supposedly announcing his run today as he seems to think the Republicans will take the House to protect him from impeachment.

You seem to think this is over and it's not over until Trump is done. So not sure why you are bringing this up like it's over or over the course of six years we didn't see the full extent of Trump's crazy selfishness. I didn't care a huge amount about Trump until he just got crazier and crazier and more and more selfish and stupid.

I told you a while back, when Trump is done you won't see me on the forum much. I mean done done as in I don't have to worry about this guy at all any more. But that isn't the case right now. As far as I can tell Trump plans to run again and announce today. We shall see if this annoying narcissistic loon plans to push his madness on America again.

I don't understand why the Republican Party is backing this guy's scummy behavior other than they have an agenda they want pushed and they don't care how it gets done even if they have to back a looney to do it.

I don't think that there's any doubt about it. Trump is running again.

I never once said anything is over. I was simply laying out the odds for the two parties in their battle for Congress. It has nothing to do with what candidate the R's nominate for POTUS. Someone said something about the prospects for the R's looking glum, and I wanted to show why that is not necessarily the case. Obviously, the two candidates at the head of both tickets is going to make a huge difference, but it's not going to change the math of what I laid out above.

Im not making any predictions, but my hope is that after these midterm results, with so many Trump-endorsed candidates losing, that his influence will wane and someone will be able to beat him in the primaries. It's one of the few scenarios I can think of where I'd vote for DeSantis, who is far from my favorite R candidate but seems to be the most likely to take on Trump and drive a wooden stake into him.

[I-5]

I hope Trump runs, but I don't think he has much chance of winning the nomination at this point, now that the party senses how much stink he's brought to the midterms with his endorsements. As someone pointed out, republicans who supported him in the past had no problem with anything he's done to date, including Jan 6...but being a loser is unforgiveable.

[Aseahawkfan]

I've heard DeSantis might not run to avoid conflict with Trump because he is young and has time to wait until 2028. He doesn't want to get dragged into the mud with Trump and end up with whatever is left of Trump's base taking shots at him. That is just speculation at the moment.

We will see what psycho narcissist does tonight.

I agree with RD that this election was mostly about numbers. Trump still has a chance of winning the nomination and the presidency as 2024 is enough time for Biden to have more problems than solutions, especially if a harder recession hits in 2023.

Even though we on here do not forget how much of a scumbag Trump is, regular voting Americans forget quick. Trump's base certainly forgets quick as they are already asking, "What did he do?" with a stupid look on their face like they don't remember all the garbage from the Ukrainian phone call threat to calling Mike Pence a coward for not seeking to deny a legal election to attacking James Mattis, a Marine general, and calling him names after he went against Trump, to pushing false election claims starting a riot on January 6th to threatening a Republican election representative in Georgia who followed the law in an attempt to intimidate him to overturn a legal election and all the other scumbag crap he and his associates did.

I still listen to my friends wanting to support the scumbag and just don't get it even while they're claiming Trump is what's best for the nation because they view the Democrats as such a terrible threat to America.

The way both of these parties are acting right now it's like we all live in a Palace known as America and they're trying to burn it down for no damn good reason. Life should be easy in America, it is easy, and these people want to turn us into some third world nation because they've been manipulated by the media to think we're in some kind of threatening situation. This is the same reason why so few lotto winners hang on to their money: because humans would rather act stupid and burn down their house than enjoy a quality life.

It doesn't get much easier in the world than life in America and we are finding a way to F it up.

[RiverDog]

I hope Trump runs, but I don't think he has much chance of winning the nomination at this point, now that the party senses how much stink he's brought to the midterms with his endorsements. As someone pointed out, republicans who supported him in the past had no problem with anything he's done to date, including Jan 6...but being a loser is unforgiveable.

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

Back in 2016, along with nearly everyone else, I didn't think that Trump had a snowball's chance in hell of winning the Presidency. CBob called Trump the best Republican candidate the Democrats could have ever wished for. But the Democrats nominated a corrosive candidate with huge negatives that willingly crawled into the gutter with Trump, fired up his base for him, then ran a horribly bad campaign and we ended up with that POS for 4 years.

I'm not making the same mistake twice. I am not going to underestimate Trump's ability to attract the hordes of morons that we have in the tens of millions in this country to turn out and support him. I don't want him getting within spitting distance of the nomination. If Trump were to get the nomination, he would stand a good chance of beating a very unpopular, 82-year-old Sleepy Joe, who has announced his intention to run for a 2nd term.

[curmudgeon]

Biden vs. Trump again? No way Trump wins. Biden in a landslide opening the door for Fetterman in 2028. Democracy wins!…..

[I-5]

I'm not making the same mistake twice. I am not going to underestimate Trump's ability to attract the hordes of morons that we have in the tens of millions in this country to turn out and support him. I don't want him getting within spitting distance of the nomination. If Trump were to get the nomination, he would stand a good chance of beating a very unpopular, 82-year-old Sleepy Joe, who has announced his intention to run for a 2nd term.

You forgot Riv; Trump got his butt kicked in 2020, both popular and electoral, and his handpicked candidates in this year's midterms got their butts kicked too. He's a loser.

DeSantis would have a MUCH better chance in a general election.

[RiverDog]

I'm not making the same mistake twice. I am not going to underestimate Trump's ability to attract the hordes of morons that we have in the tens of millions in this country to turn out and support him. I don't want him getting within spitting distance of the nomination. If Trump were to get the nomination, he would stand a good chance of beating a very unpopular, 82-year-old Sleepy Joe, who has announced his intention to run for a 2nd term.

You forgot Riv; Trump got his butt kicked in 2020, both popular and electoral, and his handpicked candidates in this year's midterms got their butts kicked too. He's a loser.

DeSantis would have a MUCH better chance in a general election.

All Trump has to do is flip 4 of the 5 states (PA, MI, and 2 of either GA, WI, or AZ) that voted for him in 2016 back into his column. It's not a huge task, especially given how Biden's job approval is in the toilet. There's also the argument that what drug Trump down in 2020 was his reaction to the pandemic, and absent that issue, he'll be able to concentrate his campaign on the economy, immigration, etc, something he was unable to do in 2020.

But I do agree that DeSantis has a better chance. Almost anyone would. But Biden is very weak, with job approval numbers worse than Trump's. He has both his age and the economy that's working against him, and that's what scares me should Trump get the nomination.

Besides Biden, the other problem the Dems have is that they don't have a centrist candidate that could appeal to swing/independent voters should Biden choose not to run. Pete Buttigeg is probably the closet to the center of any of the major candidates and a person I could vote for, but I don't think that the country is ready for a gay President.

[I-5]

The electorate made it crystal clear...they're done with crazy conspracists maniacs. They said so in 2020, and again in 2022. Trump can't flip those states, and probably would lose even worse. Like you said, fool me once...

I'd be MUCH more worried as a dem about facing DeSantis. Not even close.

[RiverDog]

The electorate made it crystal clear...they're done with crazy conspracists maniacs. They said so in 2020, and again in 2022. Trump can't flip those states, and probably would lose even worse. Like you said, fool me once...

I'd be MUCH more worried as a dem about facing DeSantis. Not even close.

I would, too. But the consequences of a DeSantis POTUS are much less severe than that of a Trump presidency, at least based on what I know about DeSantis.

[I-5]

I would, too. But the consequences of a DeSantis POTUS are much less severe than that of a Trump presidency, at least based on what I know about DeSantis.

What I meant is, I'd be much more worried about beating DeSantis than beating Trump. Trump would lose big. DeSantis might win.

I'm not saying DeSantis is an extremist. I don't think he is. He's just a typical politician.

[RiverDog]

I would, too. But the consequences of a DeSantis POTUS are much less severe than that of a Trump presidency, at least based on what I know about DeSantis.

What I meant is, I'd be much more worried about beating DeSantis than beating Trump. Trump would lose big. DeSantis might win.

I'm not saying DeSantis is an extremist. I don't think he is. He's just a typical politician.

DeSantis may not be the arrogant A-hole that Trump is, but he is prone to make some ridiculous, grandstanding political acts by using human beings as pawns simply to enhance his standing with his base. IMO he's worse than the typical pol.

And I'm not nearly as confident as you are that Biden could beat Trump "big".

[Aseahawkfan]

DeSantis may not be the arrogant A-hole that Trump is, but he is prone to make some ridiculous, grandstanding political acts by using human beings as pawns simply to enhance his standing with his base. IMO he's worse than the typical pol.

And I'm not nearly as confident as you are that Biden could beat Trump "big".

The bussing people around thing been around a long time whether its immigrants or homeless. Maybe those immigrants are doing better in the other state.

[I-5]

The bussing people around stunt that DeSantis pulled, besides being illegal due to human trafficking interstate laws, actually had the opposite effect of bringing immigrants to the americans who actually cared about them and treated them better than where they were. Case in point, people in Martha's Vineyard pulled together at almost zero notice to provide as best as they could for the immigrants to help them in their transition to their next destination, and gave them an opportunity to show their strength as a caring community. It was still a despicable stunt, but some good things happened that I' not sure DeSantis planned for. On top of that, one of the results is that the 48 migrants he misled now have a chance to apply for a U visa which can lead to a green card. Nice move, DeSantis!

I'm confident Trump would lose by a worse margin than he did in 2020. The same people who rejected Trump's hand picked candidates in the midterms would come out even stronger in a national election. But I don't even think Trump can make it to the nomination.

To put it more bluntly, as Paul Ryan puts it: "With Trump we lose, with somebody else we're going to win. We lost the House in ‘18. We lost the presidency and the Senate in ’20. We didn't get the Senate [in the midterms], and we got a small majority in the House, largely because of Trump...I think anybody not named Trump can beat Biden."

[RiverDog]

DeSantis may not be the arrogant A-hole that Trump is, but he is prone to make some ridiculous, grandstanding political acts by using human beings as pawns simply to enhance his standing with his base. IMO he's worse than the typical pol.

And I'm not nearly as confident as you are that Biden could beat Trump "big".

The bussing people around thing been around a long time whether its immigrants or homeless. Maybe those immigrants are doing better in the other state.

Not in the manner DeSantis did it. And the result isn't what's important with regard to DeSantis. What's relevant is the spirit in which he decided to do it. He didn't give a rip about those people and had no idea how they'd be received. All he cared about was making a political statement.

Plus that's not the only time he's used people as his own personal props to fire up his base. He publicly arrested a number of individuals accused of casting an illegal vote. There's a lot more important things for law enforcement to do than arrest some unsuspecting individual that was attempting to vote, most not even aware they couldn't. I don't want to see a POTUS using the FBI or IRS in that manner. That's the type of crapola Trump would pull.

I'm not saying that I'll never vote for DeSantis. I'm just saying that I'm less than enthusiastic about him.

[RiverDog]

It's official. The Republicans have flipped the House as they just secured the 218th seat required to be the majority party:

In a statement Wednesday, President Biden said, "I congratulate Leader McCarthy on Republicans winning the House majority, and am ready to work with House Republicans to deliver results for working families."

https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/el ... publicans/

But with such a small majority, it's going to require nearly every R to stay on the reservation if the R's want to pursue an agenda, which means that moonbats like Marjorie Taylor Greene will be gifted with more power than just one out of 435 votes. Expect at least one investigation into Joe Biden's dirty laundry.

[Hawktawk]

This time Trump is cooked and I say this as one who loathes the man and would never underestimate his appeal to certain people .
But a free media that gave him 4 billion in free earned media in 2016 and covered his every action and word in 20 ignored his announcement this time . I’ve seen no spike in my social media after this announcement. No juice . Major donors have already informed him he will receive no money. Pence has unloaded about Jan 6. Chris Christie got cheered attacking Trump.
My best friend who was all Trump all the time is talking up Desantus . I just read these tea leaves and say he’s doing this to avoid or delay prosecution in multiple investigations . Won’t look good indicting a former president whose running again . Another way he can further damage america for his own miserable reasons .

[RiverDog]

This time Trump is cooked and I say this as one who loathes the man and would never underestimate his appeal to certain people .
But a free media that gave him 4 billion in free earned media in 2016 and covered his every action and word in 20 ignored his announcement this time . I’ve seen no spike in my social media after this announcement. No juice . Major donors have already informed him he will receive no money. Pence has unloaded about Jan 6. Chris Christie got cheered attacking Trump.
My best friend who was all Trump all the time is talking up Desantus . I just read these tea leaves and say he’s doing this to avoid or delay prosecution in multiple investigations . Won’t look good indicting a former president whose running again . Another way he can further damage america for his own miserable reasons .

Yeah, I saw that speculation, too, that Trump made his announcement so early so as to avoid prosecution for his various problems. It's very unusual for a candidate to announce their candidacy this early. Most wait until later in the spring or early summer of the year prior to the election.

DeSantis is only 44 years old, so he doesn't have to run this cycle and may opt to sit it out and wait until 2028. I think ASF alluded to that possibility. If that happens, it could dilute the field of possible candidates, split the anti Trump vote between 4-5 candidates like Nikki Haley, Greg Abbott, etc., and provide a path for Trump to get the nomination, and if that happens and it's a rematch between him and Sleepy Joe, all bets are off.

[Aseahawkfan]

Not in the manner DeSantis did it. And the result isn't what's important with regard to DeSantis. What's relevant is the spirit in which he decided to do it. He didn't give a rip about those people and had no idea how they'd be received. All he cared about was making a political statement.

Plus that's not the only time he's used people as his own personal props to fire up his base. He publicly arrested a number of individuals accused of casting an illegal vote. There's a lot more important things for law enforcement to do than arrest some unsuspecting individual that was attempting to vote, most not even aware they couldn't. I don't want to see a POTUS using the FBI or IRS in that manner. That's the type of crapola Trump would pull.

I'm not saying that I'll never vote for DeSantis. I'm just saying that I'm less than enthusiastic about him.

I don't know if I believe that, but I'd have to prove it.

I honestly think behind the scenes both parties know this is going to happen and react accordingly. It's a giant game of control on us where they pretend to do this crap, but really it's orchestrated and meant to elicit a response from the public.

In my opinion, we're mostly getting played by these two parties with the common idea of divide and conquer which keeps the people in a really ignorant state so they can be more easily controlled.

Which is why all I care about with DeSantis is Trump gone because I doubt he'll do much to change the way America is run. I doubt any of these politicians will.

[Hawktawk]

This time Trump is cooked and I say this as one who loathes the man and would never underestimate his appeal to certain people .
But a free media that gave him 4 billion in free earned media in 2016 and covered his every action and word in 20 ignored his announcement this time . I’ve seen no spike in my social media after this announcement. No juice . Major donors have already informed him he will receive no money. Pence has unloaded about Jan 6. Chris Christie got cheered attacking Trump.
My best friend who was all Trump all the time is talking up Desantus . I just read these tea leaves and say he’s doing this to avoid or delay prosecution in multiple investigations . Won’t look good indicting a former president whose running again . Another way he can further damage america for his own miserable reasons .

Yeah, I saw that speculation, too, that Trump made his announcement so early so as to avoid prosecution for his various problems. It's very unusual for a candidate to announce their candidacy this early. Most wait until later in the spring or early summer of the year prior to the election.

DeSantis is only 44 years old, so he doesn't have to run this cycle and may opt to sit it out and wait until 2028. I think ASF alluded to that possibility. If that happens, it could dilute the field of possible candidates, split the anti Trump vote between 4-5 candidates like Nikki Haley, Greg Abbott, etc., and provide a path for Trump to get the nomination, and if that happens and it's a rematch between him and Sleepy Joe, all bets are off.[/quote]

That was then and this is now . Starting with Glenn Youngkin people have been standing up to him more all the time and it’s damn near a full revolt . Lauren Bobblhead Boebert in Colorado may hang on by a thread but if that isn’t a sign people have had it with these truthers and conspiracy theorists .

Trumps done. Just like Geno is a starter . I’m sure . Good riddance . I hope he winds up in the pen .

[RiverDog]

That was then and this is now . Starting with Glenn Youngkin people have been standing up to him more all the time and it’s damn near a full revolt . Lauren Bobblhead Boebert in Colorado may hang on by a thread but if that isn’t a sign people have had it with these truthers and conspiracy theorists .

Trumps done. Just like Geno is a starter . I’m sure . Good riddance . I hope he winds up in the pen .

I honestly hope you're right, but until I a candidate other than Trump gets enough delegates to win the nomination, I'm not sleeping easy. Too many things can happen between now and then.