Midterm Elections

[I-5]

The only danger Trump poses is destroying the republican party...if he hasn't already. I loathe him as much as anyone here, but I don't fear him in a general election anymore. He will get trounced. He's losing MAGA members by the day, and not gaining new ones. Led by Murdoch, his speeches have been generally ignored by the media, and he can't tweet anymore (at least not now). Worst of all, his hand picked candidates in the midterms performed so poorly that the writing is clear: the country is sick of him. Everyone knows the real objective of announcing his candidacy; he thinks it will protect him from prosecution. It's his only move. I'm glad to say I haven't heard that voice in over a year now.

[Aseahawkfan]

Trump may be announcing early to hope to avoid prosecution. He may be doing it just to stay relevant as people are finally starting to ignore him.

But to me it's not just winning the presidency that is the problem. It's that he can still stir up a hornet's nest of trouble selling his "voting for me is resisting the incredibly corrupt Biden administration" garbage that can wind his followers up into thinking they're in some kind of Civil War type of situation like he did on January 6th, then going "screw it, I've got nothing left to lose let's do this" sending them into a truly violent frenzy.

I also would not discount if he wins the nomination the Republican propaganda machine getting fully behind him like they did last time. Everyone forgets that the Republican propaganda machine did not help Trump until he won the nomination. If he wins the nomination again and the choice is let Biden sit in office four more years or go after Biden relentlessly, they may just back Trump again and go for another White House bid. Then all bets are off if he can win the general election with the House of Representatives launching investigations at Biden at key times while the Republican propaganda machine ramps up Trump and his followers as the nation's saviors.

That's why I'm hoping Trump gets taken out by someone like DeSantis or some other Republican so the Republican propaganda machine can get behind a new candidate and let Trump become "old news" and forgotten as nothing more than a John Water's movie version of the United States government.

The safest way to get rid of Trump is another Republican taking the nomination. So all you Dems tell your Republican friends to vote for someone else in the primaries, but do it in a way that paints Trump as a giant loser who keeps on losing again and again and again. Time to move on.

One bright spot for me is Trump announced and my normally Republican supporting Trump voting buddies barely cared or said anything. They'll back whoever takes the nomination whether it's Trump or someone else. Trump's gonna find out his base was never loyal to him and it will only back him if he can win the nomination again. Even Trump's own family is staying away this time around. They know even if Trump wins the nomination, it's going to further damage the family name and all associations. Sounds like Ivanka and Eric Jr. don't want any part of this new run.

I'd vote for Ivanka way before Trump. She's way more level-headed and sensible than her father. Much more intelligent too. But she's probably had her fill of politics after dealing with her lunatic father for four years and all the vitriol he inspires for and against him.

[Hawktawk]

Trump may be announcing early to hope to avoid prosecution. He may be doing it just to stay relevant as people are finally starting to ignore him.

But to me it's not just winning the presidency that is the problem. It's that he can still stir up a hornet's nest of trouble selling his "voting for me is resisting the incredibly corrupt Biden administration" garbage that can wind his followers up into thinking they're in some kind of Civil War type of situation like he did on January 6th, then going "screw it, I've got nothing left to lose let's do this" sending them into a truly violent frenzy.

I also would not discount if he wins the nomination the Republican propaganda machine getting fully behind him like they did last time. Everyone forgets that the Republican propaganda machine did not help Trump until he won the nomination. If he wins the nomination again and the choice is let Biden sit in office four more years or go after Biden relentlessly, they may just back Trump again and go for another White House bid. Then all bets are off if he can win the general election with the House of Representatives launching investigations at Biden at key times while the Republican propaganda machine ramps up Trump and his followers as the nation's saviors.

That's why I'm hoping Trump gets taken out by someone like DeSantis or some other Republican so the Republican propaganda machine can get behind a new candidate and let Trump become "old news" and forgotten as nothing more than a John Water's movie version of the United States government.

The safest way to get rid of Trump is another Republican taking the nomination. So all you Dems tell your Republican friends to vote for someone else in the primaries, but do it in a way that paints Trump as a giant loser who keeps on losing again and again and again. Time to move on.

One bright spot for me is Trump announced and my normally Republican supporting Trump voting buddies barely cared or said anything. They'll back whoever takes the nomination whether it's Trump or someone else. Trump's gonna find out his base was never loyal to him and it will only back him if he can win the nomination again. Even Trump's own family is staying away this time around. They know even if Trump wins the nomination, it's going to further damage the family name and all associations. Sounds like Ivanka and Eric Jr. don't want any part of this new run.avoid

I'd vote for Ivanka way before Trump. She's way more level-headed and sensible than her father. Much more intelligent too. But she's probably had her fill of politics after dealing with her lunatic father for four years and all the vitriol he inspires for and against him.

He has no juice . As you say my hard right friends who celebrated him are super quiet this time . One has already said he’s supporting Desantus . A FB friend posted a comment about him running and this is a trump guy with trump friends , lots of friends on FB. He got one response from a guy who said he loves him but thinks he will lose if he runs . 1 response . I think this midterm popcorn fart is the clincher for the party . Winning shouldn’t be all that mattered but it is .
I personally loathe the entire family , wish none of them well including Svetlana the opportunist who was repulsed by her dad and whatever else happened with that weird dynamic . But she hung in for political expediency . Like all of them . The hell with all of them .

[NorthHawk]

I don't think Trump can avoid prosecution by running for office but he can use it to play the victim of another witch hunt against him.
I'm hoping most of those who supported him in the past now see through the ruse. I also think a number of them finally realized they are being grifted.
But he will still have his approximately 30% base that would follow him through the gates of hell and that's a lot of influence.
Desantes is another Trump but he's politically smarter and doesn't have the baggage of a narcissistic personality to turn people off. Just look what he's done
in Florida using the Gov't to punish Disney for supporting the LGBT community. That's just the start of his pressing the edges of democratic boundaries.

[RiverDog]

I don't think Trump can avoid prosecution by running for office but he can use it to play the victim of another witch hunt against him.
I'm hoping most of those who supported him in the past now see through the ruse. I also think a number of them finally realized they are being grifted.
But he will still have his approximately 30% base that would follow him through the gates of hell and that's a lot of influence.
Desantes is another Trump but he's politically smarter and doesn't have the baggage of a narcissistic personality to turn people off. Just look what he's done
in Florida using the Gov't to punish Disney for supporting the LGBT community. That's just the start of his pressing the edges of democratic boundaries.

Glad you stuck your nose in here. J/B you're a Canadian doesn't mean your opinion isn't wanted or appreciated.

Trump can't avoid prosecution, but the hope is...from his POV...that prosecutors will be more reluctant to go after a viable candidate than they would just a former POTUS in that it would make the prosecutor look politically motivated.

I'm not sure if DeSantis is another Trump w/o the narcissistic personality or not, but he is subject to pulling these political stunts, and the incident you cite, removing Disney's tax breaks because their CEO offered his own personal opinion on a piece of legislation, is one of those stunts. His behavior as Gov causes me to be concerned that he would use the mechanisms of the federal government to advance his own political causes. But if the choice is DeSantis or Trump, I'll take DeSantis.

[c_hawkbob]

DeSantis is only marginally better than Trump, but that's a pretty low bar. An earthworm is marginally better than Trump.

[idhawkman]

Definitely an interesting political landscape these days. With the red wave fizzle it will be almost impossible for the dems to run any other ticket in 2024 than Biden/Harris. This makes me think that the dems may not put up a fight when the Rs start going after Joe and his money fleecing in the House next year. They'll let the Rs take out joe and blame the mean republicans while having a legitimate reason to have Harris and other new bloods go through a primary. This way they don't have to take the first African American off the ticket and they won't have to replace Joe who will claim credit for the Rs fizzle and his success in winning in 2020.

[idhawkman]

I don't think trump declared to avoid prosecution. I think he declared to keep certain others from even throwing their hats in the ring. E.g. Pompeo, Haley, etc. I also think he wanted to set the terms of the fight if there is to be a primary. E.g. He set the debate on immigration, economy, crime, foreign trade, anti-war and energy/economy.

I don't think Trump can avoid prosecution by running for office but he can use it to play the victim of another witch hunt against him.
I'm hoping most of those who supported him in the past now see through the ruse. I also think a number of them finally realized they are being grifted.
But he will still have his approximately 30% base that would follow him through the gates of hell and that's a lot of influence.
Desantes is another Trump but he's politically smarter and doesn't have the baggage of a narcissistic personality to turn people off. Just look what he's done
in Florida using the Gov't to punish Disney for supporting the LGBT community. That's just the start of his pressing the edges of democratic boundaries.

[Aseahawkfan]

Idhawkman,

Back in time for another fun Trump bid for the White House.

I don't think he's worried about prosecution much either. Dems been investigating him for six plus years. They haven't stuck crap on him. How can you worry when the people investigating you have done nothing? They haven't even forced him to testify yet.

I see Dem supporters still believing at some point they will stick something on him. And now they're all going to watch the new House go after Biden likely.

This midterm was as big a failure for the Dems as it was the Republicans as it just leaves everything status quo with the protection shifting to the House instead of the Senate.

The Repubs will back whoever wins the nomination even if it is Trump.

[RiverDog]

Definitely an interesting political landscape these days. With the red wave fizzle it will be almost impossible for the dems to run any other ticket in 2024 than Biden/Harris. This makes me think that the dems may not put up a fight when the Rs start going after Joe and his money fleecing in the House next year. They'll let the Rs take out joe and blame the mean republicans while having a legitimate reason to have Harris and other new bloods go through a primary. This way they don't have to take the first African American off the ticket and they won't have to replace Joe who will claim credit for the Rs fizzle and his success in winning in 2020.

Good to see you decided to venture back into the jungle.

I don't think there's any way in hell that the Dems won't eventually unite behind Biden/Harris just like they did the last time. Neither party would concede a presidential election just to torpedo their own nominee.

[Hawktawk]

I wonder how the republicans who voted for these idiots to get the house feel about investigations announced the moment it’s clear they won by a whisker . It’s the most brutal performance in the midterm by the out of power party in my memory . Especially running against sleepy joe, border security , fuel , inflation , covid confusion , Afghanistan ( I predicted it would sink him ) a proxy war with Russia . It’s really remarkable but it’s a guy who lost the house in 18, everything in 20 and his senate picks are why the Dems will gain a seat when the idiot man w@re Walker goes down in a recount . He’s a lot like his sponsor . Hits a lot of women on the side and doesn’t sound too intelligent .
I want my god damn party back . I think a lot of people do . Trump is the only chance a Biden Harris ticket has . Frankly the way it’s going with Ukraine I hope we’re around in 2 years . But if we are and trump is re-elected I will have cast my last vote of my life . He needs to quit wasting oxygen .

[Aseahawkfan]

Stopping Trump in the primaries is the best chance at the moment of stopping him in my opinion. If he wins the Republican nomination, there is a good chance he loses but not a zero percent chance he loses. The Republican Party is driven by hate for the Democrats at the moment and whoever gets the nomination will get the Republican machine backing them.

Trump seems to have announced early to position himself as the lead candidate and to attack any one that declares for the Republican primary as soon as they try to challenge him. It's going to be his usual boorish strategy of ridiculing them and attempting to belittle them to make them seem weak.

Why so many people see that fat, old, boorish narcissistic loudmouth as a "strong president" is more of his ability to create the illusion of strength without any real substance to it.

[RiverDog]

Stopping Trump in the primaries is the best chance at the moment of stopping him in my opinion. If he wins the Republican nomination, there is a good chance he loses but not a zero percent chance he loses. The Republican Party is driven by hate for the Democrats at the moment and whoever gets the nomination will get the Republican machine backing them.

Trump seems to have announced early to position himself as the lead candidate and to attack any one that declares for the Republican primary as soon as they try to challenge him. It's going to be his usual boorish strategy of ridiculing them and attempting to belittle them to make them seem weak.

Why so many people see that fat, old, boorish narcissistic loudmouth as a "strong president" is more of his ability to create the illusion of strength without any real substance to it.

I agree with most of that. The best chance of stopping Trump is in the primaries. The Dems are extremely weak and vulnerable with Sleepy Joe as their standard bearer. I'm not fond of DeSantis, but I'd vote for him before I'd vote for Trump or about 90% of the Dem candidates.

It's hard to tell why Trump announced so early. Maybe he just likes the attention.

[c_hawkbob]

I really think Trump thought declaring early would help impede the momentum of the myriad cases against him. Guess again eh? All it did was get him a special prosecutor!

[Aseahawkfan]

You must be being facetious. RD, you know this dude loves attention.

The man has been positioning himself on TV and now politics as the image of wealth, strength, and business acumen for 40 or 50 years. Even during the Reagan years he took out a full page add in the paper to attack Reagan and the Republicans.

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/10/donald-trump-ronald-reagan-213288/

This guy has positioned for attention probably since he was born. I wouldn't be surprised if came out of the womb crying more than other babies just to get more attention and he's never stopped crying louder and more obnoxiously than anyone else.

[Aseahawkfan]

Oh gee, another special prosecutor appointed. What is that now? 2 or 3 that have tried? Add that to the committees, the AGs, the House, and everything else he's been investigated for over the past 40 or 50 years, then add it all up, and what do you get? Donald Trump declaring a 2024 presidential run.

I'd rather see him taken out in the primaries than trust the Democrats to finally stick something on him. They been talking up how they finally have him for six years now and he's just golfing away in Florida and declaring a presidential run.

The Democrats should literally be sending thank you cards to the Supreme Court for the Roe vs. Wade ruling or we probably have a Republican Congress about to open a can of worms for Biden with Trump well protected.

They're trying to paint these Republican losses on Trump to position, but they really lost because the Supreme Court appointed by Trump put out a ruling that gave the Democrats a lifeline. It's irony like that ruling that gives me hope Trump will finally be sent packing for good by the Republican Party misplaying a key issue.

Fact is being anti-abortion in the modern day is a losing issue, a really bad losing issue that any intelligent Republican knows is a terrible losing issue. Not sure how they position for any strong gains until they settle that issue. It was a dumb move to support a reversal of Roe vs. Wade and the Republicans need to get it taken care or they are never going to make good gains with a strong female vote against them.

That single ruling in these tight elections is going to cost the Republicans for years and the Democrats are happy to have that issue to flog the Republicans with every election.

[c_hawkbob]

The big difference between the first go round and this one not the Special Councils themselves but the surrounding circumstances. Barr hired Mueller to do the investigating for him and make recommendations about charges, but frankly there was no way Barr was going to indict a sitting president no matter what Mueller had found.

Garland has already conducted nearly all of the stolen documents portion of the case and a major portion of the investigation into the Jan 6 Portion. And as conservative as he is, is hiring Smith essentially as a closer, to actually decide the charges so Garland can't be accused of a conflict of interest now that Trump has declared himself running against his boss in the upcoming election.

Trump was hoping declaring almost 2 years early would insulate him from his current problems, looks to me like not so much.

[idhawkman]

Good to see you decided to venture back into the jungle.

I don't think there's any way in hell that the Dems won't eventually unite behind Biden/Harris just like they did the last time. Neither party would concede a presidential election just to torpedo their own nominee.

You may be right but I think that will be dependent on what his approval rating is and how the economy is doing. I don't think the Dems will have student loan bailouts (which resulted in vote lines at college campuses around blocks) or the Roe vs Wade issues. Both will most likely be decided by next year.

Like I Said, interesting landscape

[RiverDog]

Good to see you decided to venture back into the jungle.

I don't think there's any way in hell that the Dems won't eventually unite behind Biden/Harris just like they did the last time. Neither party would concede a presidential election just to torpedo their own nominee.

You may be right but I think that will be dependent on what his approval rating is and how the economy is doing. I don't think the Dems will have student loan bailouts (which resulted in vote lines at college campuses around blocks) or the Roe vs Wade issues. Both will most likely be decided by next year.

Like I Said, interesting landscape

I don't see the economy/inflation turning around for some time. Despite raises in interest rates, there's still way too much money floating around that keeps demand strong and prices high, and with the labor shortage like it is, people aren't afraid of losing their jobs like we were back in the late 70's when we had near double digit unemployment. And if the economy doesn't turn around, there's no way in hell that Biden gets anywhere near 50% job approval, which seems to be the benchmark for a POTUS seeking a 2nd term. And I agree with you, the Dems won't have the votes they bought in the midterms with the student loan giveaway program and Roe v Wade will continue to fade. Biden will be left with nothing more than a fig leaf to cover his economic woes.

Granted, a lot of things can happen, the economy doing a 180 being one of them, but at this point the only way the Republicans lose in 2024 is if they trot out that narcissistic moron, fugitive-on-the-run Donald Trump again. Nothing will unite the left more than having that pompous ass to rally against. He's the only candidate that Sleepy Joe and his 40% approval rating can beat. It's refreshing to see so many Republicans finally waking up to that reality. Hopefully, that includes you, too.

[Aseahawkfan]

The big difference between the first go round and this one not the Special Councils themselves but the surrounding circumstances. Barr hired Mueller to do the investigating for him and make recommendations about charges, but frankly there was no way Barr was going to indict a sitting president no matter what Mueller had found.

Garland has already conducted nearly all of the stolen documents portion of the case and a major portion of the investigation into the Jan 6 Portion. And as conservative as he is, is hiring Smith essentially as a closer, to actually decide the charges so Garland can't be accused of a conflict of interest now that Trump has declared himself running against his boss in the upcoming election.

Trump was hoping declaring almost 2 years early would insulate him from his current problems, looks to me like not so much.

We'll see. I'll believe it when I see it.

The New York AG had no sympathy and Trump has no conservative protection in New York, best they seem to have gotten is fines he is currently fighting.

I'm not sure what kind of charges you think they'll get for taking some documents, a common tradition by presidents, or for January 6th where he ran his mouth but didn't take any actions himself.

Not even sure what time table you expect.

It's been six years of nothing but empty talk and lots of money spent and lots of time spent lawyering. I'm sorry, but I think Trump and his supporters got so much stuff on Democrats to punish them with that the behind the scenes negotiations alone are going to derail this case and use it as not much more than show.

I don't for a second believe our legal system isn't corrupt and that these politicians don't hold tons of evidence on each other to prevent prosecution. Sort of like Jeffrey Epstein dying and absolutely nothing coming out of the trial of his madame Ghislaine. Remember where Epstein had a whole list of powerful people that were supposed to be indicted or gone to trial for using his services? How did that turnout? Turned out with Epstein dead and Ghislaine given a trial and imprisoned that everyone has forgotten about at this point.

Democrats like the threat of litigation to keep all you Democrat voters hoping for serious charges over the actuality of charges or a serious indictment which would incite a tit for tat political sacrifice behind the scenes for each party.

That's why I'd prefer to see Trump taken out in the primaries. It means his powerful Republican protection will be pulled and the Republican machine will move to the new candidate. Then you might see some at least some mild charges and negotiation behind the scenes for Trump to shut his mouth. And I'll take that.

[Aseahawkfan]

I don't see the economy/inflation turning around for some time. Despite raises in interest rates, there's still way too much money floating around that keeps demand strong and prices high, and with the labor shortage like it is, people aren't afraid of losing their jobs like we were back in the late 70's when we had near double digit unemployment. And if the economy doesn't turn around, there's no way in hell that Biden gets anywhere near 50% job approval, which seems to be the benchmark for a POTUS seeking a 2nd term. And I agree with you, the Dems won't have the votes they bought in the midterms with the student loan giveaway program and Roe v Wade will continue to fade. Biden will be left with nothing more than a fig leaf to cover his economic woes.

Granted, a lot of things can happen, the economy doing a 180 being one of them, but at this point the only way the Republicans lose in 2024 is if they trot out that narcissistic moron, fugitive-on-the-run Donald Trump again. Nothing will unite the left more than having that pompous ass to rally against. He's the only candidate that Sleepy Joe and his 40% approval rating can beat. It's refreshing to see so many Republicans finally waking up to that reality. Hopefully, that includes you, too.

A lot of layoffs are coming. They are starting to mount. I'm seeing prices drop some in the grocery store. Inflation dropped .5 percent to 7.7. That may slow interest rate increases.

It's a mix of companies doing well. Crypto has blown up with multiple high profile bankruptcies including the FTX scam. Bankman-Freid really scammed his way to billions and has lost it all in one quick sweep. Apparently some politicians are involved in that blow up which more may come out.

I am noticing from a few friends applying for jobs that a lot of companies are tightening hiring in this high interest rate environment. They are having trouble finding new jobs, where they were plentiful about 4 or more months ago.

We are seeing behavioral shifts in the economy with the interest rate tightening.

[idhawkman]

I don't see the economy/inflation turning around for some time. Despite raises in interest rates, there's still way too much money floating around that keeps demand strong and prices high, and with the labor shortage like it is, people aren't afraid of losing their jobs like we were back in the late 70's when we had near double digit unemployment. And if the economy doesn't turn around, there's no way in hell that Biden gets anywhere near 50% job approval, which seems to be the benchmark for a POTUS seeking a 2nd term. And I agree with you, the Dems won't have the votes they bought in the midterms with the student loan giveaway program and Roe v Wade will continue to fade. Biden will be left with nothing more than a fig leaf to cover his economic woes.

Granted, a lot of things can happen, the economy doing a 180 being one of them, but at this point the only way the Republicans lose in 2024 is if they trot out that narcissistic moron, fugitive-on-the-run Donald Trump again. Nothing will unite the left more than having that pompous ass to rally against. He's the only candidate that Sleepy Joe and his 40% approval rating can beat. It's refreshing to see so many Republicans finally waking up to that reality. Hopefully, that includes you, too.

No, not me. I think Trump or any republican can win in 24.

Jobs will be drying up real fast now. Many firms have already stared layoffs. Bezos is even warning people to hold off on any major purchases. Energy price s are about to sky rocket now that the SPR is no longer releasing 1 M barrels a day. The east coast is already warning about diesel shortages, which will shut down factories, trucking etc and thus the jobs that go with it. The northeast is already conditioning the population to expect serious blackouts this winter due to fuel shortages again reducing productivity. Combine that with the quiet quitting now infecting the work place and our overall productivity will wither taking demand and thus jobs with it.

JP Morgan, Jamie Diamond and many other big banks are warning for deep sustained recession.

One thing I want to point out about the midterms in regards to the senate races. The numbers really didn't favor the republicans this last time but 2024 lines up much more favorable to the Rs in swing states. Also, even though the Rs didn't gain many seats it's the first time in decades that a single party picked up seats in three consecutive elections. Additionally, for the first time in a long time the republican candidates garnered 4.5M more votes overall than the Ds. So if the Ds can't scare their base into voting or bribe them into doing so they probably won't have the turnout to counter the outrage over the economy etc of the Rs and persuadable Is.

Contrary to popular belief, this past election wasn't as bad for the Rs as has been reported. A disappointment to be sure but that was more of not meeting expectations than reality.

[RiverDog]

No, not me. I think Trump or any republican can win in 24.

I agree, Trump can win in '24 if he gets the nomination. That's what scares me. But that wasn't what I was getting at. I was curious as to if you still support DJT. It's been a long time since you've dipped your toes in here, and a lot has happened since.

Jobs will be drying up real fast now. Many firms have already stared layoffs. Bezos is even warning people to hold off on any major purchases. Energy price s are about to sky rocket now that the SPR is no longer releasing 1 M barrels a day. The east coast is already warning about diesel shortages, which will shut down factories, trucking etc and thus the jobs that go with it. The northeast is already conditioning the population to expect serious blackouts this winter due to fuel shortages again reducing productivity. Combine that with the quiet quitting now infecting the work place and our overall productivity will wither taking demand and thus jobs with it.

JP Morgan, Jamie Diamond and many other big banks are warning for deep sustained recession.

Some jobs are drying up. There is still a very robust labor market. In October, there were 11 million job openings, up 5% from the previous month. People may not be able to get the type of work they want, but there's going to be work available. That's what's different about this recession, and why I don't think it's going to end quickly. Unemployment is still just 3.7%. There are nearly 3 million more job openings than there are unemployed, and we're not talking about flipping burgers for minimum wage. That's a lot of slack and why this recession differs from those in the past. With that kind of money circulating in the economy, prices will remain high.

One thing I want to point out about the midterms in regards to the senate races. The numbers really didn't favor the republicans this last time but 2024 lines up much more favorable to the Rs in swing states. Also, even though the Rs didn't gain many seats it's the first time in decades that a single party picked up seats in three consecutive elections. Additionally, for the first time in a long time the republican candidates garnered 4.5M more votes overall than the Ds. So if the Ds can't scare their base into voting or bribe them into doing so they probably won't have the turnout to counter the outrage over the economy etc of the Rs and persuadable Is.

Contrary to popular belief, this past election wasn't as bad for the Rs as has been reported. A disappointment to be sure but that was more of not meeting expectations than reality.

You're late to the party, my friend. Go back and read some of my posts in this thread. The Dems did much better than expected, but the R's still flipped the House and held serve in the Senate despite having to defend 21 seats to the Dem's 14 and with 6 retirements to the Dem's 1. It was far from the "epic failure" that some have characterized it as.

[I-5]

Regarding layoffs, at least in tech, these tech giants had HUGE hiring spurts in the last year, and even within the last few weeks, so many of these layoffs are actually hiring freezes, and in most cases taking them back to where they were before the giant hiring frenzy. Case in point, one of my friends who works at Amazon just got promoted a couple weeks ago, and posted more job openings on LinkedIn for people to apply to, and just days later Amazon announced layoffs.

[RiverDog]

Regarding layoffs, at least in tech, these tech giants had HUGE hiring spurts in the last year, and even within the last few weeks, so many of these layoffs are actually hiring freezes, and in most cases taking them back to where they were before the giant hiring frenzy. Case in point, one of my friends who works at Amazon just got promoted a couple weeks ago, and posted more job openings on LinkedIn for people to apply to, and just days later Amazon announced layoffs.

Amazon and Twitter have been getting a lot of publicity regarding their job cuts, but it's not reflective of what's going on in the rest of the job market:

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports that U.S. employers expanded payrolls by 261,000 jobs in October (2022), exceeding economists’ forecasts of about 205,000 jobs.

The agency also notes that employment gains in August and September combined were higher than previously reported — by 29,000 jobs. Since the start of 2022, about 3.3 million jobs have been added to the U.S. economy.

That's 25% more job openings than was projected, and why I think that demand will remain high and inflation will be with us for quite some time.

I know that there's no layoffs or job cuts in my former industry. Every time I get together with some of the guys/gals from my former employment for a beer and even though I've repeatedly told everyone that I'm not coming back, I've had a number of them try to talk me into coming out of retirement. It's a compliment in a way in that it shows that I'm still wanted, but it also shows how desperate they are if they're trying to talk an old man who's been out of the loop for 4 years to come out of retirement.

[Aseahawkfan]

Amazon and Twitter have been getting a lot of publicity regarding their job cuts, but it's not reflective of what's going on in the rest of the job market:

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports that U.S. employers expanded payrolls by 261,000 jobs in October (2022), exceeding economists’ forecasts of about 205,000 jobs.

The agency also notes that employment gains in August and September combined were higher than previously reported — by 29,000 jobs. Since the start of 2022, about 3.3 million jobs have been added to the U.S. economy.

That's 25% more job openings than was projected, and why I think that demand will remain high and inflation will be with us for quite some time.

I know that there's no layoffs or job cuts in my former industry. Every time I get together with some of the guys/gals from my former employment for a beer and even though I've repeatedly told everyone that I'm not coming back, I've had a number of them try to talk me into coming out of retirement. It's a compliment in a way in that it shows that I'm still wanted, but it also shows how desperate they are if they're trying to talk an old man who's been out of the loop for 4 years to come out of retirement.

There is a shifting of labor occurring. During the pandemic the internet driven companies ramped to meet demand, while traditional businesses were forced to cut back. Big Tech is experiencing a mild slowdown due to people returning to traditional behaviors, so there will be a shift in where the labor is needed. The pay might be lower in those industries too, though still higher than it was. You can make 18 an hour to start in fast food right now which was unheard pre-pandemic.

The interest rate increases do take time to do their job. So the downturn in demand may take some months. Even if we increased unemployment by a full percentage point, it would still be astoundingly low.

It's still been a very hard market to invest in and I've been waiting for what I consider a good entry point while monitoring inflation and The Fed's rate increases.

[RiverDog]

There is a shifting of labor occurring. During the pandemic the internet driven companies ramped to meet demand, while traditional businesses were forced to cut back. Big Tech is experiencing a mild slowdown due to people returning to traditional behaviors, so there will be a shift in where the labor is needed. The pay might be lower in those industries too, though still higher than it was. You can make 18 an hour to start in fast food right now which was unheard pre-pandemic.

The interest rate increases do take time to do their job. So the downturn in demand may take some months. Even if we increased unemployment by a full percentage point, it would still be astoundingly low.

It's still been a very hard market to invest in and I've been waiting for what I consider a good entry point while monitoring inflation and The Fed's rate increases.

Agreed, which is one of the reasons why we're seeing such a high turnover in jobs, ie the Great Resignation.

I'm a little more pessimistic than you are about inflation. I don't think that they get it solved for several years. The Fed is going to find it more and more difficult to keep raising interest rates as they're getting pressured not to. We'll see if they have the balls to keep raising them. It has to be done as they need to do something to restrict the flow of money and cool down the economy.

[Aseahawkfan]

Agreed, which is one of the reasons why we're seeing such a high turnover in jobs, ie the Great Resignation.

I'm a little more pessimistic than you are about inflation. I don't think that they get it solved for several years. The Fed is going to find it more and more difficult to keep raising interest rates as they're getting pressured not to. We'll see if they have the balls to keep raising them. It has to be done as they need to do something to restrict the flow of money and cool down the economy.

It may take years to get to 2%. As usual there are so many factors affecting all of this that it's hard to manage. When Russia attacked Ukraine, everyone found out once again like the pandemic how global supply chains are and how specialized some nations are in what they provide. Russia provides a huge amount of oil, natural gas, fertilizer, and several other natural resources that other nations rely on. When this supply gets removed from the global chain, adjustments take time.

Then there is the labor adjustment in America. I don't know what happened with how Americans raise their kids, but damn, they seemed to have raised their children that working hard isn't necessary. This younger generation is the most lost I've seen. Their best skills are writing texts and watching their phones. What the hell happened to raising Americans to work on cars, fix things themselves, and put in a good day of competent work.

I'm pro immigration at this point because they at least come here to work whereas this younger generation of Americans feels like they get jobs because someone made them and they could barely be bothered to work and are completely addicted to their phones. If I were managing immigration, I would focus on nations where the people have better smartphone use habits because I'd bet you can prove that the smartphone has cut down on productivity from addictive use.

Did you ever have to deal with this smartphone addicted generation in the last years you worked? It's the worst. It makes all those folks complaining about kids watching TV seem like minor quibbles. These kids carry their TV with them 24/7 and can't stop paying attention to it to put in a good day's work.

[RiverDog]

Agreed, which is one of the reasons why we're seeing such a high turnover in jobs, ie the Great Resignation.

I'm a little more pessimistic than you are about inflation. I don't think that they get it solved for several years. The Fed is going to find it more and more difficult to keep raising interest rates as they're getting pressured not to. We'll see if they have the balls to keep raising them. It has to be done as they need to do something to restrict the flow of money and cool down the economy.

It may take years to get to 2%. As usual there are so many factors affecting all of this that it's hard to manage. When Russia attacked Ukraine, everyone found out once again like the pandemic how global supply chains are and how specialized some nations are in what they provide. Russia provides a huge amount of oil, natural gas, fertilizer, and several other natural resources that other nations rely on. When this supply gets removed from the global chain, adjustments take time.

Then there is the labor adjustment in America. I don't know what happened with how Americans raise their kids, but damn, they seemed to have raised their children that working hard isn't necessary. This younger generation is the most lost I've seen. Their best skills are writing texts and watching their phones. What the hell happened to raising Americans to work on cars, fix things themselves, and put in a good day of competent work.

I'm pro immigration at this point because they at least come here to work whereas this younger generation of Americans feels like they get jobs because someone made them and they could barely be bothered to work and are completely addicted to their phones. If I were managing immigration, I would focus on nations where the people have better smartphone use habits because I'd bet you can prove that the smartphone has cut down on productivity from addictive use.

Did you ever have to deal with this smartphone addicted generation in the last years you worked? It's the worst. It makes all those folks complaining about kids watching TV seem like minor quibbles. These kids carry their TV with them 24/7 and can't stop paying attention to it to put in a good day's work.

We once had to fire a guy that kept watching movies on is phone while on the job. We caught him several times, suspended him once, and that still didn't stop him. He was literally in tears the last time we caught him after we had told him that the next time he got caught, begging us not to fire him. We had a policy that no cell phones were allowed in our plant, with few exceptions, but we had free wifi in our lunch room.

It's no secret that I'm a huge advocate of a robust but legal and secure immigration system. Here's an article that demonstrates the demand that exists in the agriculture industry:

“Honestly, we've been in a workforce shortage for a number of years now. We're very dependent on a foreign-born workforce. And our immigration system, as I think everybody recognizes, is broken, and we continually have a lack of workers that are able and willing to perform the jobs that agriculture requires to harvest the food that you and I eat and enjoy every day," Naerebout said.

Labor is one of the biggest costs of production in the dairy industry and agriculture in general. So, Naerebout said, as ag employers keep jacking up their wages to try to attract workers, labor costs are eating up profits and affecting the prices you're paying for your groceries.

"It's not all of the inflationary impact, but it is one of those factors where we're seeing food prices increase, because we have a lack of supply and food supplies are starting to get tighter, just because we don't have the labor to get the work done to get the food the market,” Naerebout said. “And that's going to continue to get worse, even if you see other things normalize in our economy. If we don't solve this labor piece, we're going to continue to see cost increases in the supermarket on food."

https://www.ktvb.com/article/money/busi ... e372f00684

The problem is widespread across the agriculture industry and is one of the main drivers of the rise in food prices we've seen recently. I've read articles where orchardists have had to let apples rot on the trees because they don't have anyone available to pick them. Same with asparagus.

The problem is that the very same people that are dependent on foreign born labor are from MAGA areas, like Idaho, where the workers are needed most, and the politics of immigration that Trump helped to ignite is keeping them from addressing the problem.

[idhawkman]

Yes of course I till support trump. Until another republican can show that they can have as much success as he did with all the powers arrayed against him I will be supporting him. The only thing I would change is his tone

As a new politician in 2016 trump got blind sided by many entities The dems were a given but the republicans like paul Ryan and Mitch were bad for him. Add in the FBI Comey et al, DoJ (sessions), DoD (Mattis), career deep staters and the media and it's a wonder he got anything done. "IF" he wins again, he most likely will do like his predecessors and accept all resignations and install the people he can trust.

In two short years we've gone from a steady growing economy, record unemployment for women, black, Hispanic and Asian Americans, energy independence, peace in the Middle East and Europe, manageable borders and immigration, reduced opioid deaths and so much more to a wrecked economy with Carter level inflation, fuel shortages and energy begging, open borders, 300+ opioids deaths per day (equivalent to a plane crash a day in America), criminals released on the public, assassination attempts on Supreme Court Juctices, etc, etc, etc.

So to answer the question again, yes I want him back if we could roll back the clock to two years ago even if it means having to put up with mean tweets and a big ego.

[Stream Hawk]

Dude incited an insurrection. Sedition. Stole nuclear codes. And that’s just the latest talking points. This is your choice for the Republican Party? Think bigger, it’s definitely a better solution.

[I-5]

If only Trump was nothing more than mean tweets and big ego...

But I'm all for Trump becoming the nominee, as the longer he stays in the news, the worse it is for the republican party. Why? Because I think almost any republican candidate could beat Biden in a general election - except Trump, based on what happened in 2018, 2020, and 2022. I think the margin of victory would be even greater this time for dems if Trump is the nominee.

[Aseahawkfan]

If only Trump was nothing more than mean tweets and big ego...

But I'm all for Trump becoming the nominee, as the longer he stays in the news, the worse it is for the republican party. Why? Because I think almost any republican candidate could beat Biden in a general election - except Trump, based on what happened in 2018, 2020, and 2022. I think the margin of victory would be even greater this time for dems if Trump is the nominee.

If he wins the nomination, I hope you're right. I don't want four more years of that piece of garbage. And I know Republicans. They'll get behind anyone who is nominated in huge numbers driven by hate for the Democrats. I hear exactly the same kind of talk about Democrats I hear on here towards Republicans. Neither side is particularly interested in seeing the very real problems with each party. They just want to take shots at each other and Trump is the guy who likes to take lots of shots at everyone who disagrees with him. A lot of Republicans don't care as long as they win the White House and feel they have a guy in there "standing up" to the Democrats. Trump is four years of ugly, narcissistic trash in the White House. My only hope if he wins is he'll have his second term, be able to brag about being a two term president, and be even lazier because he can't run for another term. Nothing more for him to win, so he'll just do his four years and then go back to bragging to his rich buddies.

[idhawkman]

Dude incited an insurrection. Sedition. Stole nuclear codes. And that’s just the latest talking points. This is your choice for the Republican Party? Think bigger, it’s definitely a better solution.

Wow, you really need to do your homework if you think this. The FBI investigated him for the insurrection and sedition and cleared him. The house just was using their investigation to keep the radical left and sound bite people focused on trump and not their policies.

The Washington post debunked the "nuclear code" issue this past week (he kept Kim Jeong Ils letters which mentioned North Koreans nukes. Far from stealing the codes.

The current administration is in deep s*** and they don't have the boots for it. They have us on the brink of nuclear war (their words not mine), inflation is about to go into hyper-drive with the rail and carrier strikes (you may not remember the 70s but I sure do). And this is your choice for president. Wow! Just wow!

I'm not too worried though, after two more years of this you too will vote republican just like so many New Yorkers and Californians did this mid term. Thanks to them in those two states the house is now in republican hands. It's only a matter of time (IF America is still around) before people wake up to the "great reset". If you don't know what that is you should buy the book and read what's coming if not stopped.

You may also want to look up the term "useful idiots" regarding socialism/communism.

[Hawktawk]

Idhawkman,

Back in time for another fun Trump bid for the White House.

I don't think he's worried about prosecution much either. Dems been investigating him for six plus years. They haven't stuck crap on him. How can you worry when the people investigating you have done nothing? They haven't even forced him to testify yet.

I see Dem supporters still believing at some point they will stick something on him. And now they're all going to watch the new House go after Biden likely.

This midterm was as big a failure for the Dems as it was the Republicans as it just leaves everything status quo with the protection shifting to the House instead of the Senate.

The Repubs will back whoever wins the nomination even if it is Trump.

The midterm was a humongous win for the democrats . An unpopular president , inflation , economy , war , pandemic confusion and they have a 7 seat majority in the amateur hour house while losing a seat in the senate where the power is at . Repubs got smoked like a cheap joint . Nobody expected this a few months ago . And it was Trump and abortion .

[Hawktawk]

Dude incited an insurrection. Sedition. Stole nuclear codes. And that’s just the latest talking points. This is your choice for the Republican Party? Think bigger, it’s definitely a better solution.

Wow, you really need to do your homework if you think this. The FBI investigated him for the insurrection and sedition and cleared him. The house just was using their investigation to keep the radical left and sound bite people focused on trump and not their policies.

The Washington post debunked the "nuclear code" issue this past week (he kept Kim Jeong Ils letters which mentioned North Koreans nukes. Far from stealing the codes.

The current administration is in deep s*** and they don't have the boots for it. They have us on the brink of nuclear war (their words not mine), inflation is about to go into hyper-drive with the rail and carrier strikes (you may not remember the 70s but I sure do). And this is your choice for president. Wow! Just wow!

I'm not too worried though, after two more years of this you too will vote republican just like so many New Yorkers and Californians did this mid term. Thanks to them in those two states the house is now in republican hands. It's only a matter of time (IF America is still around) before people wake up to the "great reset". If you don't know what that is you should buy the book and read what's coming if not stopped.

You may also want to look up the term "useful idiots" regarding socialism/communism.[/quote]

Trumps buddy Putin has us on the brink of nuclear war . You really blaming Biden ? Blah blah blah . Jesus really ? Trumps a criminal . Any other developed nation would arrest and jail him . He’s cleared of nothing. Keep going down that rabbit hole

[RiverDog]

The midterm was a humongous win for the democrats . An unpopular president , inflation , economy , war , pandemic confusion and they have a 7 seat majority in the amateur hour house while losing a seat in the senate where the power is at . Repubs got smoked like a cheap joint . Nobody expected this a few months ago . And it was Trump and abortion .

No, it wasn't a "humongous win for the Democrats". The R's flipped the House and despite the math being against them, held serve in the Senate. The D's have lost quite a bit of power. Nancy Pelosi is nothing but one of 435 now. It renders Biden's agenda in the 2nd half of his term irrelevant. It's only 'humongous' when compared to the expectations. Take that out of the equation and you have to conclude that the R's won the day.

In 2024, the Senate math will favor the R's as the D's will be defending 23 out of the 34 seats that will be up for grabs, plus they'll be running an 82 year old hugely unpopular POTUS in an economy that's unlikely to improve much over the next 24 months. As long as the R's don't trot out that pompous ass Donald Trump, things look pretty rosy for them.

[idhawkman]

No, it wasn't a "humongous win for the Democrats". The R's flipped the House and despite the math being against them, held serve in the Senate. The D's have lost quite a bit of power. Nancy Pelosi is nothing but one of 435 now. It renders Biden's agenda in the 2nd half of his term irrelevant. It's only 'humongous' when compared to the expectations. Take that out of the equation and you have to conclude that the R's won the day.

In 2024, the Senate math will favor the R's as the D's will be defending 23 out of the 34 seats that will be up for grabs, plus they'll be running an 82 year old hugely unpopular POTUS in an economy that's unlikely to improve much over the next 24 months. As long as the R's don't trot out that pompous ass Donald Trump, things look pretty rosy for them.

I fully agree with you Riv, but you know the sound bite media isn't giving the full story. They do far more damage to the population with what they don't cover than the tripe that they do cover. They are suppose to be the ones who ask questions and hold gov. Accountable but instead they are cheerleaders at best.

Honestly the art of being a reporter is lost and instead they rely on Twitter for their stories. It's also why musk is going to be able to get his blue check premium every month because without the blue check they won't know how to report.

[I-5]

Wow, you really need to do your homework if you think this. The FBI investigated him for the insurrection and sedition and cleared him. The house just was using their investigation to keep the radical left and sound bite people focused on trump and not their policies.

When did the FBI 'clear' him exactly? I'm not aware of no such thing. If it isn't 1000% obvious who instigated the Jan 6 insurrection, I can't help you.

[RiverDog]

Wow, you really need to do your homework if you think this. The FBI investigated him for the insurrection and sedition and cleared him. The house just was using their investigation to keep the radical left and sound bite people focused on trump and not their policies.

When did the FBI 'clear' him exactly? I'm not aware of no such thing. If it isn't 1000% obvious who instigated the Jan 6 insurrection, I can't help you.

Yeah, I'm not aware of the FBI 'clearing' Trump, either. I won't go so far as to say with 100% certainty that Trump 'instigated' the riot, but he damn sure didn't lift a finger to prevent it or to protect the lives of those that were threatened on that day. At the very least, he's guilty of dereliction of duty and violated his oath of office.