Aseahawkfan wrote:Trump may be announcing early to hope to avoid prosecution. He may be doing it just to stay relevant as people are finally starting to ignore him.
But to me it's not just winning the presidency that is the problem. It's that he can still stir up a hornet's nest of trouble selling his "voting for me is resisting the incredibly corrupt Biden administration" garbage that can wind his followers up into thinking they're in some kind of Civil War type of situation like he did on January 6th, then going "screw it, I've got nothing left to lose let's do this" sending them into a truly violent frenzy.
I also would not discount if he wins the nomination the Republican propaganda machine getting fully behind him like they did last time. Everyone forgets that the Republican propaganda machine did not help Trump until he won the nomination. If he wins the nomination again and the choice is let Biden sit in office four more years or go after Biden relentlessly, they may just back Trump again and go for another White House bid. Then all bets are off if he can win the general election with the House of Representatives launching investigations at Biden at key times while the Republican propaganda machine ramps up Trump and his followers as the nation's saviors.
That's why I'm hoping Trump gets taken out by someone like DeSantis or some other Republican so the Republican propaganda machine can get behind a new candidate and let Trump become "old news" and forgotten as nothing more than a John Water's movie version of the United States government.
The safest way to get rid of Trump is another Republican taking the nomination. So all you Dems tell your Republican friends to vote for someone else in the primaries, but do it in a way that paints Trump as a giant loser who keeps on losing again and again and again. Time to move on.
One bright spot for me is Trump announced and my normally Republican supporting Trump voting buddies barely cared or said anything. They'll back whoever takes the nomination whether it's Trump or someone else. Trump's gonna find out his base was never loyal to him and it will only back him if he can win the nomination again. Even Trump's own family is staying away this time around. They know even if Trump wins the nomination, it's going to further damage the family name and all associations. Sounds like Ivanka and Eric Jr. don't want any part of this new run.avoid
I'd vote for Ivanka way before Trump. She's way more level-headed and sensible than her father. Much more intelligent too. But she's probably had her fill of politics after dealing with her lunatic father for four years and all the vitriol he inspires for and against him.
NorthHawk wrote:I don't think Trump can avoid prosecution by running for office but he can use it to play the victim of another witch hunt against him.
I'm hoping most of those who supported him in the past now see through the ruse. I also think a number of them finally realized they are being grifted.
But he will still have his approximately 30% base that would follow him through the gates of hell and that's a lot of influence.
Desantes is another Trump but he's politically smarter and doesn't have the baggage of a narcissistic personality to turn people off. Just look what he's done
in Florida using the Gov't to punish Disney for supporting the LGBT community. That's just the start of his pressing the edges of democratic boundaries.
NorthHawk wrote:I don't think Trump can avoid prosecution by running for office but he can use it to play the victim of another witch hunt against him.
I'm hoping most of those who supported him in the past now see through the ruse. I also think a number of them finally realized they are being grifted.
But he will still have his approximately 30% base that would follow him through the gates of hell and that's a lot of influence.
Desantes is another Trump but he's politically smarter and doesn't have the baggage of a narcissistic personality to turn people off. Just look what he's done
in Florida using the Gov't to punish Disney for supporting the LGBT community. That's just the start of his pressing the edges of democratic boundaries.
idhawkman wrote:Definitely an interesting political landscape these days. With the red wave fizzle it will be almost impossible for the dems to run any other ticket in 2024 than Biden/Harris. This makes me think that the dems may not put up a fight when the Rs start going after Joe and his money fleecing in the House next year. They'll let the Rs take out joe and blame the mean republicans while having a legitimate reason to have Harris and other new bloods go through a primary. This way they don't have to take the first African American off the ticket and they won't have to replace Joe who will claim credit for the Rs fizzle and his success in winning in 2020.
Aseahawkfan wrote:Stopping Trump in the primaries is the best chance at the moment of stopping him in my opinion. If he wins the Republican nomination, there is a good chance he loses but not a zero percent chance he loses. The Republican Party is driven by hate for the Democrats at the moment and whoever gets the nomination will get the Republican machine backing them.
Trump seems to have announced early to position himself as the lead candidate and to attack any one that declares for the Republican primary as soon as they try to challenge him. It's going to be his usual boorish strategy of ridiculing them and attempting to belittle them to make them seem weak.
Why so many people see that fat, old, boorish narcissistic loudmouth as a "strong president" is more of his ability to create the illusion of strength without any real substance to it.
RiverDog wrote:Good to see you decided to venture back into the jungle.
I don't think there's any way in hell that the Dems won't eventually unite behind Biden/Harris just like they did the last time. Neither party would concede a presidential election just to torpedo their own nominee.
RiverDog wrote:Good to see you decided to venture back into the jungle.
I don't think there's any way in hell that the Dems won't eventually unite behind Biden/Harris just like they did the last time. Neither party would concede a presidential election just to torpedo their own nominee.
idhawkman wrote:You may be right but I think that will be dependent on what his approval rating is and how the economy is doing. I don't think the Dems will have student loan bailouts (which resulted in vote lines at college campuses around blocks) or the Roe vs Wade issues. Both will most likely be decided by next year.
Like I Said, interesting landscape
c_hawkbob wrote:The big difference between the first go round and this one not the Special Councils themselves but the surrounding circumstances. Barr hired Mueller to do the investigating for him and make recommendations about charges, but frankly there was no way Barr was going to indict a sitting president no matter what Mueller had found.
Garland has already conducted nearly all of the stolen documents portion of the case and a major portion of the investigation into the Jan 6 Portion. And as conservative as he is, is hiring Smith essentially as a closer, to actually decide the charges so Garland can't be accused of a conflict of interest now that Trump has declared himself running against his boss in the upcoming election.
Trump was hoping declaring almost 2 years early would insulate him from his current problems, looks to me like not so much.
RiverDog wrote:I don't see the economy/inflation turning around for some time. Despite raises in interest rates, there's still way too much money floating around that keeps demand strong and prices high, and with the labor shortage like it is, people aren't afraid of losing their jobs like we were back in the late 70's when we had near double digit unemployment. And if the economy doesn't turn around, there's no way in hell that Biden gets anywhere near 50% job approval, which seems to be the benchmark for a POTUS seeking a 2nd term. And I agree with you, the Dems won't have the votes they bought in the midterms with the student loan giveaway program and Roe v Wade will continue to fade. Biden will be left with nothing more than a fig leaf to cover his economic woes.
Granted, a lot of things can happen, the economy doing a 180 being one of them, but at this point the only way the Republicans lose in 2024 is if they trot out that narcissistic moron, fugitive-on-the-run Donald Trump again. Nothing will unite the left more than having that pompous ass to rally against. He's the only candidate that Sleepy Joe and his 40% approval rating can beat. It's refreshing to see so many Republicans finally waking up to that reality. Hopefully, that includes you, too.
RiverDog wrote:
I don't see the economy/inflation turning around for some time. Despite raises in interest rates, there's still way too much money floating around that keeps demand strong and prices high, and with the labor shortage like it is, people aren't afraid of losing their jobs like we were back in the late 70's when we had near double digit unemployment. And if the economy doesn't turn around, there's no way in hell that Biden gets anywhere near 50% job approval, which seems to be the benchmark for a POTUS seeking a 2nd term. And I agree with you, the Dems won't have the votes they bought in the midterms with the student loan giveaway program and Roe v Wade will continue to fade. Biden will be left with nothing more than a fig leaf to cover his economic woes.
Granted, a lot of things can happen, the economy doing a 180 being one of them, but at this point the only way the Republicans lose in 2024 is if they trot out that narcissistic moron, fugitive-on-the-run Donald Trump again. Nothing will unite the left more than having that pompous ass to rally against. He's the only candidate that Sleepy Joe and his 40% approval rating can beat. It's refreshing to see so many Republicans finally waking up to that reality. Hopefully, that includes you, too.
idhawkman wrote:No, not me. I think Trump or any republican can win in 24.
idhawkman wrote:Jobs will be drying up real fast now. Many firms have already stared layoffs. Bezos is even warning people to hold off on any major purchases. Energy price s are about to sky rocket now that the SPR is no longer releasing 1 M barrels a day. The east coast is already warning about diesel shortages, which will shut down factories, trucking etc and thus the jobs that go with it. The northeast is already conditioning the population to expect serious blackouts this winter due to fuel shortages again reducing productivity. Combine that with the quiet quitting now infecting the work place and our overall productivity will wither taking demand and thus jobs with it.
JP Morgan, Jamie Diamond and many other big banks are warning for deep sustained recession.
idhawkman wrote:One thing I want to point out about the midterms in regards to the senate races. The numbers really didn't favor the republicans this last time but 2024 lines up much more favorable to the Rs in swing states. Also, even though the Rs didn't gain many seats it's the first time in decades that a single party picked up seats in three consecutive elections. Additionally, for the first time in a long time the republican candidates garnered 4.5M more votes overall than the Ds. So if the Ds can't scare their base into voting or bribe them into doing so they probably won't have the turnout to counter the outrage over the economy etc of the Rs and persuadable Is.
Contrary to popular belief, this past election wasn't as bad for the Rs as has been reported. A disappointment to be sure but that was more of not meeting expectations than reality.
I-5 wrote:Regarding layoffs, at least in tech, these tech giants had HUGE hiring spurts in the last year, and even within the last few weeks, so many of these layoffs are actually hiring freezes, and in most cases taking them back to where they were before the giant hiring frenzy. Case in point, one of my friends who works at Amazon just got promoted a couple weeks ago, and posted more job openings on LinkedIn for people to apply to, and just days later Amazon announced layoffs.
RiverDog wrote:Amazon and Twitter have been getting a lot of publicity regarding their job cuts, but it's not reflective of what's going on in the rest of the job market:
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports that U.S. employers expanded payrolls by 261,000 jobs in October (2022), exceeding economists’ forecasts of about 205,000 jobs.
The agency also notes that employment gains in August and September combined were higher than previously reported — by 29,000 jobs. Since the start of 2022, about 3.3 million jobs have been added to the U.S. economy.
That's 25% more job openings than was projected, and why I think that demand will remain high and inflation will be with us for quite some time.
I know that there's no layoffs or job cuts in my former industry. Every time I get together with some of the guys/gals from my former employment for a beer and even though I've repeatedly told everyone that I'm not coming back, I've had a number of them try to talk me into coming out of retirement. It's a compliment in a way in that it shows that I'm still wanted, but it also shows how desperate they are if they're trying to talk an old man who's been out of the loop for 4 years to come out of retirement.
Aseahawkfan wrote:There is a shifting of labor occurring. During the pandemic the internet driven companies ramped to meet demand, while traditional businesses were forced to cut back. Big Tech is experiencing a mild slowdown due to people returning to traditional behaviors, so there will be a shift in where the labor is needed. The pay might be lower in those industries too, though still higher than it was. You can make 18 an hour to start in fast food right now which was unheard pre-pandemic.
The interest rate increases do take time to do their job. So the downturn in demand may take some months. Even if we increased unemployment by a full percentage point, it would still be astoundingly low.
It's still been a very hard market to invest in and I've been waiting for what I consider a good entry point while monitoring inflation and The Fed's rate increases.
RiverDog wrote:Agreed, which is one of the reasons why we're seeing such a high turnover in jobs, ie the Great Resignation.
I'm a little more pessimistic than you are about inflation. I don't think that they get it solved for several years. The Fed is going to find it more and more difficult to keep raising interest rates as they're getting pressured not to. We'll see if they have the balls to keep raising them. It has to be done as they need to do something to restrict the flow of money and cool down the economy.
RiverDog wrote:Agreed, which is one of the reasons why we're seeing such a high turnover in jobs, ie the Great Resignation.
I'm a little more pessimistic than you are about inflation. I don't think that they get it solved for several years. The Fed is going to find it more and more difficult to keep raising interest rates as they're getting pressured not to. We'll see if they have the balls to keep raising them. It has to be done as they need to do something to restrict the flow of money and cool down the economy.
Aseahawkfan wrote:It may take years to get to 2%. As usual there are so many factors affecting all of this that it's hard to manage. When Russia attacked Ukraine, everyone found out once again like the pandemic how global supply chains are and how specialized some nations are in what they provide. Russia provides a huge amount of oil, natural gas, fertilizer, and several other natural resources that other nations rely on. When this supply gets removed from the global chain, adjustments take time.
Then there is the labor adjustment in America. I don't know what happened with how Americans raise their kids, but damn, they seemed to have raised their children that working hard isn't necessary. This younger generation is the most lost I've seen. Their best skills are writing texts and watching their phones. What the hell happened to raising Americans to work on cars, fix things themselves, and put in a good day of competent work.
I'm pro immigration at this point because they at least come here to work whereas this younger generation of Americans feels like they get jobs because someone made them and they could barely be bothered to work and are completely addicted to their phones. If I were managing immigration, I would focus on nations where the people have better smartphone use habits because I'd bet you can prove that the smartphone has cut down on productivity from addictive use.
Did you ever have to deal with this smartphone addicted generation in the last years you worked? It's the worst. It makes all those folks complaining about kids watching TV seem like minor quibbles. These kids carry their TV with them 24/7 and can't stop paying attention to it to put in a good day's work.
I-5 wrote:If only Trump was nothing more than mean tweets and big ego...
But I'm all for Trump becoming the nominee, as the longer he stays in the news, the worse it is for the republican party. Why? Because I think almost any republican candidate could beat Biden in a general election - except Trump, based on what happened in 2018, 2020, and 2022. I think the margin of victory would be even greater this time for dems if Trump is the nominee.
Stream Hawk wrote:Dude incited an insurrection. Sedition. Stole nuclear codes. And that’s just the latest talking points. This is your choice for the Republican Party? Think bigger, it’s definitely a better solution.
Aseahawkfan wrote:Idhawkman,
Back in time for another fun Trump bid for the White House.
I don't think he's worried about prosecution much either. Dems been investigating him for six plus years. They haven't stuck crap on him. How can you worry when the people investigating you have done nothing? They haven't even forced him to testify yet.
I see Dem supporters still believing at some point they will stick something on him. And now they're all going to watch the new House go after Biden likely.
This midterm was as big a failure for the Dems as it was the Republicans as it just leaves everything status quo with the protection shifting to the House instead of the Senate.
The Repubs will back whoever wins the nomination even if it is Trump.
Stream Hawk wrote:Dude incited an insurrection. Sedition. Stole nuclear codes. And that’s just the latest talking points. This is your choice for the Republican Party? Think bigger, it’s definitely a better solution.
Hawktawk wrote:The midterm was a humongous win for the democrats . An unpopular president , inflation , economy , war , pandemic confusion and they have a 7 seat majority in the amateur hour house while losing a seat in the senate where the power is at . Repubs got smoked like a cheap joint . Nobody expected this a few months ago . And it was Trump and abortion .
RiverDog wrote:
No, it wasn't a "humongous win for the Democrats". The R's flipped the House and despite the math being against them, held serve in the Senate. The D's have lost quite a bit of power. Nancy Pelosi is nothing but one of 435 now. It renders Biden's agenda in the 2nd half of his term irrelevant. It's only 'humongous' when compared to the expectations. Take that out of the equation and you have to conclude that the R's won the day.
In 2024, the Senate math will favor the R's as the D's will be defending 23 out of the 34 seats that will be up for grabs, plus they'll be running an 82 year old hugely unpopular POTUS in an economy that's unlikely to improve much over the next 24 months. As long as the R's don't trot out that pompous ass Donald Trump, things look pretty rosy for them.
Wow, you really need to do your homework if you think this. The FBI investigated him for the insurrection and sedition and cleared him. The house just was using their investigation to keep the radical left and sound bite people focused on trump and not their policies.
Wow, you really need to do your homework if you think this. The FBI investigated him for the insurrection and sedition and cleared him. The house just was using their investigation to keep the radical left and sound bite people focused on trump and not their policies.
I-5 wrote:When did the FBI 'clear' him exactly? I'm not aware of no such thing. If it isn't 1000% obvious who instigated the Jan 6 insurrection, I can't help you.
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