RiverDog wrote:Yeah, I'm all for addressing climate change, but it has to be done equitably. If we're going to do something like this, it has to be done on a national scale. The other thing that I'm peeved about is that this 'tax' was never put to a vote of the people. It's a huge increase, at least 10%, and is impacting a lot of low income and seniors on fixed income of whom are already paying a much higher percentage of their income on transportation. It's also inflationary, as companies will be passing along these added transportation costs to the consumer.
And who in the hell controls these increases? Some politically appointed head of the Department of Ecology? And why are they passing something of which no one can tell us exactly what financial effect it has? And what are they doing with the revenue they're receiving? It has to be a significant amount for it to have resulted in such a large price increase on such a high-volume item like gas. Who decides how to spend it?
This is an absurd law, and if they don't do something to rectify it, it could lead to us electing a Trump-style moonbat as our next Governor.
c_hawkbob wrote:So you really believe climate change is just a means to an end and not real?
c_hawkbob wrote:I don't care about the point of the thread, I live in Kentucky, I was responding expressly to a specific statement within the thread. I find it remarkable that climate change is still doubted.
c_hawkbob wrote:So you really believe climate change is just a means to an end and not real?
RiverDog wrote:I wasn't scolding you and I apologize if you took it that way. But I'm not surprised that climate change is still doubted. People will believe anything they read and hear:
Another 2019 poll, conducted by YouGov, found that 29 percent of respondents 50 years old or younger expressed some belief that the U.S. government “faked the 1969 Apollo moon landing,” with eight percent answering “definitely true” and 21 percent answering “probably true.”
If there are that many people walking around with their heads up their asses, is it any wonder that so many of them doubt that climate change is real?
Aseahawkfan wrote:Riverdog is asking about what he thinks of as a bad carbon tax. He should understand that when you are pushing something as Armageddon, you empower those people to do whatever is necessary to effect change.
RiverDog wrote:No, I'm not asking what the motivation was for passing this bill. I know why they did it. It's Democrats like Jay Enslee polishing their green credentials.
I don't fully understand this law. Supposedly, the DOE auctions off pollution allowances to energy companies, ie Shell, Exxon, et al, based on some sort of state-wide cap in order for them to sell gasoline and other carbon-based fuels within the state, allowances that get more expensive over time. The idea is that it will give the energy companies a financial incentive to reduce the carbon content of their fuels. But how are these allowances set? Who sets them? And what happens to the revenue that is generated by these sales? Here's what they're saying:
The revenue raised from Washington’s auctions — projected to be nearly $1 billion a year — will go toward implementing clean-energy projects, reducing emissions from buildings and transportation, and adapting to the effects of climate change.
So what does that mean? That they're going to build more windmills? $1 billion per year of clean energy projects? And what qualifies as clean energy? Nuclear? Hydro? If not, why not? They do not create any carbon emissions. Who decides how and where this money is spent?
Energy companies are not making an effort that they haven't already made due to these allowances they've purchased. Why the hell would they? Washington represents a tiny percentage of their overall gasoline sales. All they've done is pass the cost of selling gas in the state on to the consumer.
I'm not necessarily against something like this, but it has to be equitable and done on a national scale. Why should someone like Cbob living in KY not have to pay for this carbon tax? And why should people living in rural areas, without access to public transportation, pay this carbon tax whereas the people living in the Puget Sound area don't have to pay near as much? And where is the sensitivity in these bleeding-heart Democrats? Do they no longer care that seniors and low-income individuals are the ones getting hurt the most by this 10% increase in transportation costs, not to mention the inflationary aspect of it?
The 37 studies compiled in this review reveal five key findings. First, it is astonishing how little hard evidence there is on the actual performance of carbon pricing policies using ex-post data. This point cannot be understated. It is the collective consensus that we need carbon pricing to address climate change, but the reality is we have very little evidence to substantiate this claim. Even carbon pricing policies with broad coverage, such as Japan and California, lack extensive independent evaluations. Second, the overall effect on reductions for both types of policy is quite small, generally between 0% and 2% per annum. Third, on the whole, taxes appear to do slightly better than ETSs in producing reductions. Fourth, the impact of the EU-ETS—the largest and oldest international carbon market—has been extremely limited. Finally, the highest emissions reductions estimates are from studies using the synthetic control method. I address each point in turn.
Aseahawkfan wrote:Sounds more like the highly manipulated carbon taxes and credits that were a part of the Paris Climate Accord. I've heard mixed views on how effective they've been for reducing climate change.
They seem to be highly manipulated and more of a marketing tool by companies and politicians to be able to say they're doing all they can for climate change while not actually showing a real reduction in carbon emissions. It's more of a I have a zero net tax versus credit, so I can tell people I have zero climate emissions without actually greatly reducing my carbon emissions.
It's government and business accounting magic.
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abdae9/meta
The 37 studies compiled in this review reveal five key findings. First, it is astonishing how little hard evidence there is on the actual performance of carbon pricing policies using ex-post data. This point cannot be understated. It is the collective consensus that we need carbon pricing to address climate change, but the reality is we have very little evidence to substantiate this claim. Even carbon pricing policies with broad coverage, such as Japan and California, lack extensive independent evaluations. Second, the overall effect on reductions for both types of policy is quite small, generally between 0% and 2% per annum. Third, on the whole, taxes appear to do slightly better than ETSs in producing reductions. Fourth, the impact of the EU-ETS—the largest and oldest international carbon market—has been extremely limited. Finally, the highest emissions reductions estimates are from studies using the synthetic control method. I address each point in turn.
RiverDog wrote:Interesting. Thanks for the info. It reinforces that which I had suspected.
And as I've been saying, my concern isn't so much of the need for of this law. I fully understand that we are going to have to start making some changes to the way we conduct our everyday lives if we're going to address climate change.
My main concern is the mechanics of this law. How is this revenue being spent? What are green projects? Who decides what's green and what isn't? Are the proceeds going to be subject to legislative budgetary action or is the DOE free to spend it as they please? It's a lot of money, an estimated $1B annually. And are they going to do anything, such as mailing out rebate checks, to address the inequities in this law, or are they good with seniors and low-income folks taking it in the shorts?
A law this impactful should have been put to a vote of the people, and my guess is that this is exactly what's going to happen. I would bet my bottom dollar that Tim Eyman is at this very moment starting a petition to overturn it.
Aseahawkfan wrote:Would a vote of the people change much? The majority don't even understand carbon taxes. Or environmental science. They more binary in their thinking. Those that acknowledge something needs to change and climate change is real and those that believe climate change is false and we don't need to do anything. But how much does either group even know?
I'd rather have a smaller group of trusted experts handle a bunch of this as long those experts are providing easily read and understandable metrics the general populace can monitor to see effectiveness. Not the magic accounting of carbon taxes and credits that let people claim to be Carbon Neutral while they're producing a ton of emissions because they paid certain taxes and used certain credits. That's just bunk.
RiverDog wrote:The problem is the amount of the tax. This isn't like paying $.08 for a grocery bag. We're talking about a billion dollars per year. That's roughly $170 per adult, and it's not being applied evenly. Rural areas will pay more. People that have to drive long distances to get to work, such as those in my area that work for my former employer and have to drive an 80+ mile round trip each day from the Tri Cities to plants located in small towns like Boardman, OR, Connell, those who live in Wenatchee and work in Quincy, or those that live in Moses Lake and work in Warden, are going to pay A LOT more.
And as I said before, who is controlling how much we pay? "Trusted experts"? You mean environmental engineers? Chemists? How are they qualified to determine how much tax I should pay? You're looking at one side of the equation and ignoring the impact it has on Joe 6-Pack.
If we're going to go this direction, then they need to come up with a better way of administering this tax.
NorthHawk wrote:The Carbon Tax sounds like a great strategy to try to influence people from using fossil fuels as much as we currently do.
We've had one up here since 2008 and the problems with it in my mind are twofold:
1) To make any real change, it has to be a significant tax - and the voting public won't accept it for the most part and a new gov't would remove it as part of a platform promise.
2) Over time, it just becomes part of your budget. Just like if you buy a new car and you get used to paying $400 per month. You adjust to it and eventually go back to your old habits.
I'll use gasoline as an example for my experience.
It was introduced at $0.07/litre or about $0.26.25 per US Gallon.
It's now at $0.1431/litre or about $0.53 per US Gallon.
That sounds like a lot, and it adds up, but with the price of gas going up as well, it gets hidden to a large degree. Most comments I hear don't dwell on the Tax as much as the profits for the Oil Companies.
There really isn't much difference in traffic nor do I see fewer big trucks and gas guzzler cars used in the city, but I do see a lot more electric cars which may or may not be because of the Carbon Tax.
I'm sure the change to Electric vehicles is in part because of the rising fuel costs, but they are more expensive to initially purchase - so not much real savings unless you go the micro car or a car much smaller than you want.
It takes a lot of driving for 14 cents/litre to add up to the extra costs of electric cars even though up here electricity is fairly cheap and the cars have rebates and electric vehicles are tax exempt provincially (5% Federal tax still applies).
NorthHawk wrote:It's been a Provincial tax since 2008 in BC. Our provincial Government at the time was Right Wing by our standards, but it was still implemented. 15 years ago seems like a lifetime, now.
Having said that, the Federal Government has put a price on Carbon, so if a Province doesn't have an equivalent carbon tax, then the Feds are suggesting they will do so on that side.
The Federal tax was interesting in that consumers got hit at the pump but got checks to make up for it. Since there was no way to calculate who paid how much, everyone in those provinces that were hit by the Feds got money back even if they only used hydro electrical or renewable energy and walked or bicycled for transportation. Those of us in BC didn't get anything back from the federal government.
Our provincial tax was supposed to offset tax increases, but as usual the money is just going down a black hole - or at the very least there's been no statement showing where the money went and I can only guess it went into "General Revenue".
I'm afraid it will become a solid issue in any election today. Money matters always are and when inflation is hurting more and more people the issue will probably get bigger.
Aseahawkfan wrote:Well RD, like I posted in the above study, carbon taxes are hard to track. No one is really sure if they are effective.
I'm fairly certain the carbon tax is not why EVs are being adopted in Canada. I'm betting Canada has a lot of EV tax credits like we have in the United States. If you purchase an EV, you get a tax break. This is supposed to ameliorate the expense of EV adoption.
Canada EV tax incentives: https://tc.canada.ca/en/road-transportation/innovative-technologies/zero-emission-vehicles/light-duty-zero-emission-vehicles/incentives-purchasing-zero-emission-vehicles
United States EV tax incentives: https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/credits-for-new-clean-vehicles-purchased-in-2023-or-after#:~:text=You%20may%20qualify%20for%20a%20credit%20up%20to%20%247%2C500%20under,purchased%20from%202023%20to%202032.
These types of programs tend to work better than carbon taxes as you can track EV adoption and the subsequent reduction in emissions from fewer fossil fuel vehicles on the road.
As we've discussed before, there are other issues with EVs.
RiverDog wrote:Agreed.
And not only are the benefits of the carbon tax hard to track, what we're paying for in the form of higher gas prices is difficult to determine. The only way I'm able to estimate it because I live so close to the Oregon border and am familiar with what the difference in the price of gas was last year between the two states. Most people don't have that frame of reference and believe what our governor told us, that it would just cost "pennies."
Plus, now you have an attorney general's office that is actively concealing cost information from customers.
It sounds like we're closer to agreeing than disagreeing.
Aseahawkfan wrote:Well RD, like I posted in the above study, carbon taxes are hard to track. No one is really sure if they are effective.
I'm fairly certain the carbon tax is not why EVs are being adopted in Canada. I'm betting Canada has a lot of EV tax credits like we have in the United States. If you purchase an EV, you get a tax break. This is supposed to ameliorate the expense of EV adoption.
Canada EV tax incentives: https://tc.canada.ca/en/road-transportation/innovative-technologies/zero-emission-vehicles/light-duty-zero-emission-vehicles/incentives-purchasing-zero-emission-vehicles
United States EV tax incentives: https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/credits-for-new-clean-vehicles-purchased-in-2023-or-after#:~:text=You%20may%20qualify%20for%20a%20credit%20up%20to%20%247%2C500%20under,purchased%20from%202023%20to%202032.
These types of programs tend to work better than carbon taxes as you can track EV adoption and the subsequent reduction in emissions from fewer fossil fuel vehicles on the road.
As we've discussed before, there are other issues with EVs.
RiverDog wrote:There's still a ton of problems they need to figure out before EV's can come even close to replacing gas powered vehicles. The first thing that needs to be done is to upgrade the electrical grid. There is not enough transmission capacity to deliver enough power to homes and businesses to support the recharging of one or two EV's per home. The other is the time it takes to recharge. Where it takes 5 minutes or so to fill your tank with gas, it takes at least 30 minutes to recharge an EV. Truck stops would have to be 5 times as large to accommodate charging stations if they can't turn over vehicles any faster. And, with all this talk of closing down fossil fuel generators, breaching dams, etc, they won't be able to produce enough power to cover this huge increase in electrical demand.
Those aren't insurmountable problems, but it's obvious that it's going to take quite a bit of time, perhaps several decades, for technology to catch up with demand. Plus, as we debated several months ago, they still need to figure out how to charge vehicles for the use of public highways so as to replace the revenue lost from the gas tax. More toll roads? GPS transponders? Meters on rechargers? Each has their own problems.
RiverDog wrote:There's still a ton of problems they need to figure out before EV's can come even close to replacing gas powered vehicles. The first thing that needs to be done is to upgrade the electrical grid. There is not enough transmission capacity to deliver enough power to homes and businesses to support the recharging of one or two EV's per home. The other is the time it takes to recharge. Where it takes 5 minutes or so to fill your tank with gas, it takes at least 30 minutes to recharge an EV. Truck stops would have to be 5 times as large to accommodate charging stations if they can't turn over vehicles any faster. And, with all this talk of closing down fossil fuel generators, breaching dams, etc, they won't be able to produce enough power to cover this huge increase in electrical demand.
Those aren't insurmountable problems, but it's obvious that it's going to take quite a bit of time, perhaps several decades, for technology to catch up with demand. Plus, as we debated several months ago, they still need to figure out how to charge vehicles for the use of public highways so as to replace the revenue lost from the gas tax. More toll roads? GPS transponders? Meters on rechargers? Each has their own problems.
c_hawkbob wrote:Grid capacity is not nearly the problem charging station infrastructure is. By the time there are even close to as many charging stations as there are gas stations the grid will have increased capacity enough. The real problem is going to be replacing gas taxes as primary road and bridge builders/maintainers with an electrical charging tax.
... perhaps every home charger will have a meter on it like the current meters on houses ...
NorthHawk wrote:Sounds probable, but I wonder how many manufacturers will balk at adding some type of meter?
I guess it wouldn't matter if it's a federal requirement, but retrofitting existing vehicles could be a problem.
NorthHawk wrote:Sounds probable, but I wonder how many manufacturers will balk at adding some type of meter?
I guess it wouldn't matter if it's a federal requirement, but retrofitting existing vehicles could be a problem.
NorthHawk wrote:Sounds probable, but I wonder how many manufacturers will balk at adding some type of meter?
I guess it wouldn't matter if it's a federal requirement, but retrofitting existing vehicles could be a problem.
Aseahawkfan wrote:I don't think they will have much problem metering the cars.
I imagine they can meter the car charger at the locations. From what I've seen of EVs is they have specific charger set up with a specific adapter. They can meter the car charging set up at the home.
Knowing our government, it will probably be a general tax on electricity that will provide a massive amount of revenue to replace what was lost.
As we discussed some time ago, EV batteries are heavier than ICE engines which make the vehicles heavier which theoretically increases wear and tear. They'll add that part to the yearly tabs.
Probably be some years before battery tech advances to produce smaller battery pack requirements for engines.
RiverDog wrote:I'm no electrician, but it would seem to me that it would be rather easy to bypass a charging meter at home or install a charger w/o a meter.
Transponders would be darn tough to defeat as every cop would know when a car wasn't being tracked by GPS. The big issue with GPS would be privacy and security as it obviously has to be internet based.
They are already assessing an additional charge for EV's on license registrations, but in order for it to be fair, they need to have some sort of tax based on highway usage. Even the gas tax isn't fair as it doesn't measure mileage and people that can afford the modern, fuel-efficient cars end up paying fewer taxes than those that have to drive a 20-year-old vehicle.
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