Republican POTUS Candidates

[RiverDog]

Donald Trump seems sure to win the Republican nomination. We're well into the 2024 campaign and he still has a commanding lead over his challengers. Trump has managed to keep himself in the news cycle since he left office. The various legal issues he's had has done nothing but feed into his "witch hunt" narrative and inspired his supporters who would vote for him even if Trump raped their daughters. He is very wise not to participate in the debates. Why should he?

I haven't watched the R debates, but I have read and heard enough about the candidates to where I've formed an opinion as to which one I would prefer. DeSantis is a nonstarter with me, as is Vivek Ramaswamy, who is nothing short of a certified moonbat. I started out preferring Chris Christie, mainly because he was so anti-Trump, but I've gradually been attracted to Nikki Haley, mostly due to her stance on Social Security reform.

Every single candidate, both Republican and Democratic alike, have done nothing but kick the can down the road when it comes to Social Security. It's been called the 3rd rail of politics: Touch it and you're dead. They need significant reform if it is to remain a viable system into the middle of this century. But Haley has taken on the issue and made it the signature plank of her platform. She also has a foreign policy stance that I approve of, and has a more moderate stance on immigration, doesn't seem to Demonize them like DeSantis has. Indeed, she's the child of immigrant parents.

But it's a moot point. Trump is going to win the R nomination and will beat Sleepy Joe in the general election. Another 4 years of the Orange Baboon. If he wins, I hope the hell that the Dems win back the House and hold onto the Senate.

[c_hawkbob]

I was with you until the last sentence. Trump will get the R nomination and lose again to itdoesen'treallymatterwho. Abortion rights will carry 2024 just like it has at every turn since the overturning of Roe v Wade.

[RiverDog]

I was with you until the last sentence. Trump will get the R nomination and lose again to itdoesen'treallymatterwho. Abortion rights will carry 2024 just like it has at every turn since the overturning of Roe v Wade.

I think you meant 2nd to last sentence. I can't imagine you not wanting the Dems to win back the House and hold onto the Senate.

Abortion will be a major issue in the Senate and House races, but I can't see it being enough to help Biden overcome his current unpopularity, which currently sits below 40%. Biden's age, something he can't change, is going to haunt him.

Keep an eye on the swing states, ie Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada. Currently, Trump is leading Biden by 5-10% in all of them, and one thing that we learned from the polls in 2016 and 2020 is that they tend to underestimate Trump, that a lot of Trump supporters won't respond or are afraid to respond, closet supporters.

[c_hawkbob]

Yeah, we'll go with last paragraph. Age matters, but it's not like Trump is much younger. Have the two of them run a mini decathlon, my money's on Joe, to just about sweep.

[curmudgeon]

Meh. Uniparty wins…….

[RiverDog]

Yeah, we'll go with last paragraph. Age matters, but it's not like Trump is much younger. Have the two of them run a mini decathlon, my money's on Joe, to just about sweep.

The problem for Biden is one of perception. Yes, Trump is just 3 years younger than Biden. But Biden looks and acts a lot older. He frequently stumbles to get his words out, and even though it might be rationalized as a lifelong stuttering problem, it' has and will continue to be interpreted as a cognitive decline.

And take a look at the number of press conferences Biden has held. Despite having a generally much friendlier press corps than Trump, Biden has held fewer press conferences than any other POTUS since Reagan. Only Reagan and Nixon have held fewer pressers since Calvin Coolidge. In his first two years in office, Donald Trump held 202 press conferences. In his first two years, Biden held 54, barely 1/4 of what Trump held. In meetings with heads of state, he frequently skips the customary pressers. He's been known to abruptly end them and books, leaving his audience hanging.

In addition to all of those facts, you can expect Republican attack ads to feature Biden's frequent trips and slips while climbing or descending stairs. Heck, they're even forgoing the traditional trot up the stairs to the door just behind the cockpit of Air Force One and an about face to waive to the crowd in lieu of a smaller set of stairs into the belly of the plane, something that Trump nor any other POTUS ever did. Age is much more of a liability for Biden than it is Trump.

[Aseahawkfan]

I still think it will depend on who the big money backs in the Republican Party.

Trump is a dead on arrival president if the Democrats control Congress or even one part of Congress. If the Democrats control both The House and the Senate, Trump will be impeached and removed as fast as they can do it. He won't get a single thing done. And may still be arrested in office.

I'm not sure the big money in the Republican Party will back that. In fact, they may very well torpedo him as Biden's big bills are making big money for some companies. Trump already obtained the tax cuts they wanted.

I think RD is underestimating what's going to happen come election time with attack ads and moves against Trump as well as behind the scenes moves. RD doesn't take into account that Trump has lost tremendous support by big Republicans in several states. Trump was endorsed in the first and second election by Peter Thiel, Dick Cheney, and several other prominent Republicans. He lost all of them with January 6th. I think the January 6th riots will be playing again and again and again leading up to voting day. January 6th along with his COVID BS along with the abortion issue and Trump's dead man walking.

I think old Riverdog vastly underestimates the amount of material they have to attack Trump with with moderate voters who decide these elections.

Trump's all done. If the Republicans elect him as their candidate, I guess they're giving up the White House for 4 years. Up to them, but that is what I predict.

Tons of memes and commercials carefully cut showing Trump causing the January 6th riots, saying stupid things about the pandemic and how many people died under his watch, and other lunatic ads turning off moderate voters.

Pence is no longer his VP, so he has no one to sway the Evangelicals. His business contacts like Thiel and the Kochs have turned their back on him. He has massive court information leaked on him. McConnell hates him even more than he did to start.

I'm gentleman's betting Riverdog right now that if Trump wins the Republican nomination, he's dead man walking before the election starts. He has way too much ammunition against him and he'll lose come election day when the heavy duty attack ads start.

These elections are incredibly tight. And come election day, there is more bad stuff to sway moderate voters with Trump that there is Biden. Only thing that would help Trump win is a tanked economy and that doesn't look like it will happen.

[RiverDog]

I still think it will depend on who the big money backs in the Republican Party.

Money didn't help Hillary in 2016. She out-spent Trump by over 2:1 and still lost. Biden likewise outspent Trump:

The former vice president’s campaign and the Democratic National Committee combined dished out $674 million to run ads, compared to $474 million by Trump’s re-election campaign and the Republican National Committee.

And pro-Biden and pro-Democratic super PACs and other outside groups outspent their pro-Trump and pro-GOP rivals $1.1 billion to $757 million.

I think RD is underestimating what's going to happen come election time with attack ads and moves against Trump as well as behind the scenes moves. RD doesn't take into account that Trump has lost tremendous support by big Republicans in several states. Trump was endorsed in the first and second election by Peter Thiel, Dick Cheney, and several other prominent Republicans. He lost all of them with January 6th. I think the January 6th riots will be playing again and again and again leading up to voting day. January 6th along with his COVID BS along with the abortion issue and Trump's dead man walking.

I think old Riverdog vastly underestimates the amount of material they have to attack Trump with with moderate voters who decide these elections.

Trump's all done. If the Republicans elect him as their candidate, I guess they're giving up the White House for 4 years. Up to them, but that is what I predict.

Tons of memes and commercials carefully cut showing Trump causing the January 6th riots, saying stupid things about the pandemic and how many people died under his watch, and other lunatic ads turning off moderate voters.

Pence is no longer his VP, so he has no one to sway the Evangelicals. His business contacts like Thiel and the Kochs have turned their back on him. He has massive court information leaked on him. McConnell hates him even more than he did to start.

I'm gentleman's betting Riverdog right now that if Trump wins the Republican nomination, he's dead man walking before the election starts. He has way too much ammunition against him and he'll lose come election day when the heavy duty attack ads start.

These elections are incredibly tight. And come election day, there is more bad stuff to sway moderate voters with Trump that there is Biden. Only thing that would help Trump win is a tanked economy and that doesn't look like it will happen.

All of what you say is true. But Trump has a bigger, more solid base than Biden does. A lot of blacks will sit this one out. So will a lot of Arab voters. Since they started doing opinion polls, no incumbent POTUS with an approval rating of below 50% has ever won re-election. Biden's current approval rating sits at 38%. He is extremely vulnerable. And don't think that the D's are the only ones that can run attack ads. Can you say "Hunter Biden"? Sleepy Joe has plenty of dirty laundry that he'd rather not air out.

[Aseahawkfan]

The bet is on because Trump's popularity was crap too and he almost won in 2020.

Hilary lost because Comey who tried to paint himself as some kind of honest man released a last minute hammer on Hilary with that investigation into her emails. And that's exactly what I'm talking about in these razor thin elections.

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/comey-s-october-surprise-shook-america-four-years-ago-today-ncna1245018

We'll see how Hunter Biden looks against all Trump's lawsuits as well as a permanent running of ads with Trump's followers attacking the Capitol, Trump calling for Pence to be branded a coward, and all the garbage he did during that time period.

I still don't know why Republicans would elect a dead man walking president if they can't flip the House and Senate. Nothing they want will get done but 4 years of Trump getting blocked and investigated. Why exactly would the Republican Party want that?

[Aseahawkfan]

Support Trump lost from first two elections:

Koch Network: https://www.axios.com/2023/02/05/koch-republican-primary-donald-trump

Peter Thiel: https://thehill.com/policy/technology/4304204-peter-thiel-trump-crazier-dangerous-than-expected/

Dick Cheney: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/aug/05/dick-cheney-trump-liz-cheney-threat-republic

Lost the votes of the January 6th rioters who lost their voting rights going to jail.

Georgia Republicans Split: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/16/us/politics/trumps-indictment-georgia-2024.html

Trump has lost a lot of support. These elections have been marginal victories one way or the other and Trump has far more chinks in his armor than Biden.

[RiverDog]

Holy cow, did you guys see how Trump characterized his political opponents as "vermin", echoing almost to the word the exact same language that Adolph Hitler used to describe the Jews and brainwash his followers? It makes Hillary Clinton's "basket of deplorables" speech look like Mr. Robinson's Neighborhood in comparison.

It's this type of rhetoric...and although the Dems/libs haven't been as extreme, they are still guilty of the same sin...that has driven such a deep divide between us.

[Aseahawkfan]

Holy cow, did you guys see how Trump characterized his political opponents as "vermin", echoing almost to the word the exact same language that Adolph Hitler used to describe the Jews and brainwash his followers? It makes Hillary Clinton's "basket of deplorables" speech look like Mr. Robinson's Neighborhood in comparison.

It's this type of rhetoric...and although the Dems/libs haven't been as extreme, they are still guilty of the same sin...that has driven such a deep divide between us.

I'm so damn tired of these two parties and their crazy. And the defense of each parties crazy by their followers.

I'm tired of listening to Republicans support Trump, lower the taxes while complaining about the deficit, talk about cutting down crime while they push the 2nd Amendment as a gun hobby amendment, and complain about immigrants while their business supporters employ most of the immigrant labor and use immigrant labor to drive down wages with a surplus labor pool.

I'm tired of a Democratic Party pushing transgender "education" into schools, more concerned with alphabet sexuality than working people, making abortion their highest priority like that's the defining issue of their party, and making it seem like the police are worse than the criminals while economic reform is so far down their list that you barely even notice the Democratic policies other than tax and spend.

I can barely stomach these political parties. You have to clip your nose shut to vote at the moment it all stinks so badly.

[RiverDog]

Holy cow, did you guys see how Trump characterized his political opponents as "vermin", echoing almost to the word the exact same language that Adolph Hitler used to describe the Jews and brainwash his followers? It makes Hillary Clinton's "basket of deplorables" speech look like Mr. Robinson's Neighborhood in comparison.

It's this type of rhetoric...and although the Dems/libs haven't been as extreme, they are still guilty of the same sin...that has driven such a deep divide between us.

I'm so damn tired of these two parties and their crazy. And the defense of each parties crazy by their followers.

I'm tired of listening to Republicans support Trump, lower the taxes while complaining about the deficit, talk about cutting down crime while they push the 2nd Amendment as a gun hobby amendment, and complain about immigrants while their business supporters employ most of the immigrant labor and use immigrant labor to drive down wages with a surplus labor pool.

I'm tired of a Democratic Party pushing transgender "education" into schools, more concerned with alphabet sexuality than working people, making abortion their highest priority like that's the defining issue of their party, and making it seem like the police are worse than the criminals while economic reform is so far down their list that you barely even notice the Democratic policies other than tax and spend.

I can barely stomach these political parties. You have to clip your nose shut to vote at the moment it all stinks so badly.

I agree with everything you said except for the remark about there being a surplus labor pool. There is no surplus labor, and wages are up, not down because of it. We have a labor shortage in just about every industry and is one of the major factors that's driving inflation. A robust immigration policy is one of the few ways to fix it.

That's my major beef with both parties, their attitudes towards immigration.

[Aseahawkfan]

I agree with everything you said except for the remark about there being a surplus labor pool. There is no surplus labor, and wages are up, not down because of it. We have a labor shortage in just about every industry and is one of the major factors that's driving inflation. A robust immigration policy is one of the few ways to fix it.

That's my major beef with both parties, their attitudes towards immigration.

I'm not talking currently where the labor pool is hammered for other reasons, but in the past they insourced immigrant labor to drive down wages while pretending they were helping the working class. Anyone that understands supply-demand applies to labor as well as products knows that a surplus labor pool will drive down wages which mostly benefits business people. Democrats were pushing loose immigration hard while claiming they were helping the working class, which they were not doing. They seemed to have forgotten about a large number of poorer American workers that needed those decent paying janitor and working class jobs before they allowed a massive influx of Latin American immigrant labor to kill low end wages.

That is not the current situation. The current situation is a massive pandemic caused a huge shift in the labor pool where workers have the upper hand right now which is why fast food workers where I live in suburban Washington are starting at 16 to 18 an hour, well past the $15 minimum wage everyone was celebrating.

We could use some immigrant labor at this point. Too many people retired, passed away, or just have not returned to work learning to live with less while staying home taking care of kids or what not.

I wish you could have seen Seattle before and after like I did. It's picked up from the worst of it when the city was empty. But it's still nothing like before the pandemic. This place must be 50% or less of the traffice I used to see. I'm surprised we haven't seen a bigger collapse in commercial real estate and city economies.

[RiverDog]

I'm not talking currently where the labor pool is hammered for other reasons, but in the past they insourced immigrant labor to drive down wages while pretending they were helping the working class. Anyone that understands supply-demand applies to labor as well as products knows that a surplus labor pool will drive down wages which mostly benefits business people. Democrats were pushing loose immigration hard while claiming they were helping the working class, which they were not doing. They seemed to have forgotten about a large number of poorer American workers that needed those decent paying janitor and working class jobs before they allowed a massive influx of Latin American immigrant labor to kill low end wages.

That is not the current situation. The current situation is a massive pandemic caused a huge shift in the labor pool where workers have the upper hand right now which is why fast food workers where I live in suburban Washington are starting at 16 to 18 an hour, well past the $15 minimum wage everyone was celebrating.

We could use some immigrant labor at this point. Too many people retired, passed away, or just have not returned to work learning to live with less while staying home taking care of kids or what not.

I wish you could have seen Seattle before and after like I did. It's picked up from the worst of it when the city was empty. But it's still nothing like before the pandemic. This place must be 50% or less of the traffice I used to see. I'm surprised we haven't seen a bigger collapse in commercial real estate and city economies.

In the past, yes, migrants were used to help flood the labor market and drive down wages. Back in the 80's when I lived in Moses Lake and worked for a potato processor, Carnation Company, a farmer named Pete Taggares http://taggaresfruit.com/about/a-family-legacy/ who owned tens of thousands of acres, owned and operated a huge potato processing plant in Othello, Chef Reddy, now owned by Simplot. If his workers went on strike, he'd simply find a half dozen or so old school busses and drive them to Eagle Pass and pick up a couple hundred wetbacks he could use them to break the strike. But that was 40 years ago. That stuff doesn't happen anymore, at least not on the scale it did back then. And, the age demographics weren't as heavily skewed like they are today.

And yes, a lot of people decided to retire early, although many of them have been lured back out of retirement by the huge wage increases. But it wasn't the pandemic that caused it. If it was, the problem would have been solved by now. The pandemic turned the labor market upside down, with millions of people changing jobs, mostly in the service industry which the pandemic hit the hardest. The root cause of the labor shortage is the demographic an imbalance between young and old.

As far as downtown Seattle goes, there were several factors that have caused the changes you are referring to. One of the things that the pandemic did was forced workers out of office buildings and to their homes where they worked remotely. Many have not returned to their offices, or at least not returned full time. That lack of sidewalk traffic has hurt downtown retailers like Macy's and Nordstrom's. The liberal city council's anti Amazon politics hasn't helped, nor has increased crime. There's a number of reasons why Seattle ain't what it used to be, and probably never will, at least not in my lifetime.

But back to the point of my response and the thread. My major issue with the Republicans is their stance on immigration.

[Aseahawkfan]

In the past, yes, migrants were used to help flood the labor market and drive down wages. Back in the 80's when I lived in Moses Lake and worked for a potato processor, Carnation Company, a farmer named Pete Taggares http://taggaresfruit.com/about/a-family-legacy/ who owned tens of thousands of acres, owned and operated a huge potato processing plant in Othello, Chef Reddy, now owned by Simplot. If his workers went on strike, he'd simply find a half dozen or so old school busses and drive them to Eagle Pass and pick up a couple hundred wetbacks he could use them to break the strike. But that was 40 years ago. That stuff doesn't happen anymore, at least not on the scale it did back then. And, the age demographics weren't as heavily skewed like they are today.

And yes, a lot of people decided to retire early, although many of them have been lured back out of retirement by the huge wage increases. But it wasn't the pandemic that caused it. If it was, the problem would have been solved by now. The pandemic turned the labor market upside down, with millions of people changing jobs, mostly in the service industry which the pandemic hit the hardest. The root cause of the labor shortage is the demographic an imbalance between young and old.

As far as downtown Seattle goes, there were several factors that have caused the changes you are referring to. One of the things that the pandemic did was forced workers out of office buildings and to their homes where they worked remotely. Many have not returned to their offices, or at least not returned full time. That lack of sidewalk traffic has hurt downtown retailers like Macy's and Nordstrom's. The liberal city council's anti Amazon politics hasn't helped, nor has increased crime. There's a number of reasons why Seattle ain't what it used to be, and probably never will, at least not in my lifetime.

But back to the point of my response and the thread. My major issue with the Republicans is their stance on immigration.

I don't much agree with you on immigration pre-pandemic. The business people paid to have immigration massively increased and legalized as well as employing the massive estimated 20 million illegal workers. It has led to broken unions, lower wages in sectors like janitorial and construction which used to be high paying jobs, and basically the same effect as was done farm jobs. No one bothers to think of it as you think of it because it is now all legal or barely policed.

It has even risen to the higher job ranks as the H1B visa program was used to bring in STEM labor. Rather than fix our broken education system and its lowered standards and as was posted recently "magic math", big companies have decided to use the education systems of other nations who don't use the racism excuse for their school system, have increased standards, and dont' pretend skin color or appearance somehow affects the ability to excel at education. So they import the labor from these much better K1 to 12 systems.

These same folks are dominating our university level education in STEM because American students coming out of the K1 to 12 system are so poorly prepared comparatively because you have a lot of Democrats dumbing down the education system to satisfy liberals claiming it is racist or some other excuse about "feeling good" rather than teaching competence in competitive fields. It's going to continue as long as Americans allow liberal politicians to treat school like a participation event rather than a system of competitive preparation.

I think the problem with the labor market is much deeper. The age problem is exactly what I'm talking about with the early retirement. A lot of folks were working older pre-pandemic and once that pandemic hit, they are afraid to go out of their houses for fear of getting sick. So they retired early or never went back or companies refused to bring them back not wanting high risk employees.

The effects of the pandemic on the labor market are hardly over. These types of events take years to sort out. The city economies are a slow example of this as companies will push workers back to work eventually and politicians will have no choice but implement business friendly taxes and regulation to attract them back or risk the city dying.

As far as immigration, it's going to have to rise to fill these service jobs and take care of these old folks unless robotics develops a lot faster. We are just entering that age and robotics will reduce the reliance on manpower immensely. I think that is a ways off, probably a decade or two at least.

[RiverDog]

I don't much agree with you on immigration pre-pandemic. The business people paid to have immigration massively increased and legalized as well as employing the massive estimated 20 million illegal workers. It has led to broken unions, lower wages in sectors like janitorial and construction which used to be high paying jobs, and basically the same effect as was done farm jobs. No one bothers to think of it as you think of it because it is now all legal or barely policed.

The vast majority of illegal aliens in this country are agricultural workers, performing jobs that native born Americans won't do. It is very difficult to police, and even if you were to crack down on them, it would have a major effect on our economy because with a 3.7% unemployment rate, there are no native-born workers to replace them. Besides, those illegals that are working and earning an honest wage aren't who I'm worried about. Let's get them vetted and right with Hoyle, get them separated out of the mass and make it easier to find those that are hiding within them. I'm worried about the drug runners, the human traffickers, and other criminals. Let's not go after the little minnows that are cutting asparagus and picking apples, slinging a mop or swinging a hammer. Let's go after the big fish.

These same folks are dominating our university level education in STEM because American students coming out of the K1 to 12 system are so poorly prepared comparatively because you have a lot of Democrats dumbing down the education system to satisfy liberals claiming it is racist or some other excuse about "feeling good" rather than teaching competence in competitive fields. It's going to continue as long as Americans allow liberal politicians to treat school like a participation event rather than a system of competitive preparation.

I agree. Around 20% of all MD's in this country, including my primary care physician, are foreign born. But that's not the immigrant's fault and limiting their entry into those higher paying jobs is going to do nothing but lower the quality of work and increase the prices we pay. It's an economic issue like any other commodity. Reducing competition will drive prices up and quality down.

If you want to improve the American education system, then give them some competition. Admit students to colleges and universities based strictly on their individual qualifications without regard to sex, religion, race, or country of origin. The only kicker I would put on admission to the US would be age. We need young workers, not 50+ that are more likely to demand medical care and be a drag on the system.

I can tell you from personal experience that immigrants are much, much better workers than native born Americans. They don't have this entitlement air about them. They are eager to succeed, their families are hungry, and they want to be accepted. I'm very connected to the immigrant community as roughly half of my current circle of friends, including my doctor and two sisters-in-law, are foreign born, so I feel that I can speak to the subject with quite a bit of credibility.

I think the problem with the labor market is much deeper. The age problem is exactly what I'm talking about with the early retirement. A lot of folks were working older pre-pandemic and once that pandemic hit, they are afraid to go out of their houses for fear of getting sick. So they retired early or never went back or companies refused to bring them back not wanting high risk employees.

That's true, but it was only temporary. Those workers were going to retire in a couple of years anyway. All it did was give a temporary shock to the system. It is not what is driving retirements today. Besides, many of those that did retire during the pandemic eventually returned to work as wages really took off:

Even though the retirement rate increased during the pandemic, it won’t necessarily rise further. It’s worth emphasizing that the retirement rate rose around the start of the pandemic but did not continue to do so. After the initial spike in joblessness at the start of the pandemic, the share of those 55 to 64 who were out of work but not retired fell rapidly without a further rise in retirement.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/12/upsh ... demic.html

As far as immigration, it's going to have to rise to fill these service jobs and take care of these old folks unless robotics develops a lot faster. We are just entering that age and robotics will reduce the reliance on manpower immensely. I think that is a ways off, probably a decade or two at least.

I agree. Robotics and AI are going to have an effect on the labor market, and as the labor market begins to tighten, I would support placing more strict limits on immigration. But we're a long way away from that point. We currently have approx. 10 million job openings, over 5% of all jobs while the unemployment rate is still below 4%. It was twice that rate in the early 80's when I entered the market, with double-digit inflation and double-digit interest rates when the labor market was much tighter.