HawkWow wrote:Football in particular?
I think most of you are dialed in on how betting football works. But I am seeing so much misinformation out there, like "Vegas lost money today", that I am literally frightened. We all know gambling is not a game and there's a few posters here I would like to assist if you have questions.
On top of my other crazy stories, I also ran book for over 20 years ( only chips...never real money). I have been involved with gambling at every level and educated by literally the very best. I will not give inaccurate information, so there should be no reason for debate. I don't care if that sounds arrogant. If that's what it takes to keep people from throwing away their money...so be it. I wasn't always so nice.
I will not pick winners for people. If I could do that with enough regularity to offer such advice, I wouldn't have time to be on a discussion board. I will offer you proven strategies, sound fundamentals and most importantly, fact and truth. Why? My brother wanted me to be nicer. I am being nicer.
BUT...There are also people that I don't give a rat's ass about and tons of a-holes that frequent this and every board. I don't even want to know how much it cost me to learn what I know, but I'm sure not giving this information to people I dislike or disrespect. I would sooner take possession of their cars, boats and college funds. With that, I would prefer to answer your questions by way of PM. So if you have questions, please contact me using that method.
My first piece of advice?...don't gamble. It seldom ends well. I promise.
Las Vegas casinos, ie sports books, take 10% off all payouts, so if, for example, if you put down $10 on a game and win, you don't get $20, you get $18. So in the bookies minds, they really don't care who wins, they want more people to bet and to bet higher amounts of money. The object for the sports books is to even out the betting and reduce their risk of either of the two possible outcomes occurring.
That's why sports books establish point spreads, to even out the betting activity and reduce their risk of losing money on either of the two possible outcomes. If the bookies are doing their jobs right and keeping a relatively 50/50 split of bets wagered on the only two possible outcomes, you are not winning the house's $10, you're winning some other poor slob's $10 and paying his 10% betting fee for him, along with your own 10% betting fee, out of your winnings. So what the bookies do is give points to encourage more people to bet for or against a certain outcome, with the bookie's goal being to get 50% of the bettors taking Outcome A and 50% taking Outcome B. That's why point spreads change throughout the week, as it is a reflection of more people betting on one outcome vs. the opposite.
One of the reasons I don't look at point spreads out of Las Vegas as a true gauge of the odds is that a lot of casual bettors will simply lay down money on their favorite team regardless of how good or bad that team is. I know a lot of people that at the start of the season will go down to Las Vegas and bet on their favorite team to win the Super Bowl because they want to hit that 50-1 longshot jackpot if their favorite team wins. That doesn't necessarily mean that the bettor understands that their star quarterback got injured and won't start the season or that the team lost 3 of their top stars to free agency. Also, some teams, like the Cowboys, Redskins, and Giants, enjoy more popularity than do the Seahawks, Titans, and Panthers, due to the fact that they are in bigger markets and are more recognizable to the casual fan.
Anyhow, that's a layman's explanation. I do like to go to Vegas and bet a relatively small amount on certain outcomes. It enhances my interest in the game. But unless you are very, very good at picking winners and losers or other outcomes, it's pretty difficult come out ahead when you're losing 10% right up front. There's better odds games than betting on football socres.