NorthHawk wrote:I think the two most important things in accurate polls are what you touched on, namely the questions asked and
the audience that responds. Often times the people that do respond are those that are angry about the topic and can vent. And questions can lead to a result that could differ from the respondents true viewpoint. For instance, the questions could be asked in such a way that the answers point to the respondent being against DJT, but it doesn't take into account historical voting for that person or what that person thinks about the challenger. If they are done correctly with proper questions that cover those and other things, they could be accurate - if like you said the person responding it telling the whole truth. There's a reason we have a secret ballot and many don't want to give up their personal intentions come voting time. So there is always going to be a measure of doubt with polls.
NorthHawk wrote:Another thing occurred to me and that is the time between when the poll was taken and the results quantified and what might have happened in those couple of weeks. With a guy like Trump, he could lose a lot of support or gain a lot just
by his actions. More than any other politician that I can remember.
RiverDog wrote:I've been watching the Presidential polls and have wondered just how accurate they are or will be in the upcoming 2020 election. In 2016, the majority of the polls nailed the popular vote to well within their customary 3% margin of error, but there were problems in some of the critical battleground states, namely PA, MI, an WI, that led to Donald Trump's upset win after many pundits assigned chance of winning percentage to Hillary of 80-90%. So what went wrong?
Hawktawk wrote:Russia. Russia went wrong. That's where all the sharing of polling data, the digital misinformation plan campaign operated. Critical swing states. Mueller revealed Paul Manafort and Rick Gates exchanged battleground PRECINCT BY PRECINCT polling data with a Putin ally in a cigar bar in NY owned by Jared Kushner . Recent redactions show that Paul Manafort, Rick Gates, Micheal Cohen all testified the president had been given a heads up by Roger Stone of Wiki leaks releases of Hacks by russian intelligence. It's been revealed they were able to hack into voter rolls in several states during 2016 including one florida country that went for Trump 75%-25%.As i've said Mueller went way too easy on trump, probably was in the clamps of Barr already. Anyone who doesn't think the weight of all those influences wasn't worth the approximately 70 thousand total votes Trump *won by* in critical states is just delusional. Minus an end to voting machines and an all mail system polls dont really matter because there is no way to trust the system anymore.
Hawktawk wrote:Right now they overwhelmingly favor Biden and growing everyday. I look at 538 daily and Trumps cratering, especially the disapprove #When it was reported Biden has surged past trump in fundraising its an even bigger deal because the bankrupt billionaire cant self finance any more than last time. But that's a big canary in a coal mine. I think Trumps losing bad right now, i just hope we are a functioning country by NOV. US travel has been BANNED BY THE EU due to "coronavirus failures" and the trumpanzees are going to hold another rally in AZ, one of the hardest spiking states. We are being led by a madman...https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... li=BBnbfcL but he wants to prove how much more cognizant than Joe Biden he is
RiverDog wrote:
Russia went wrong. mail system polls dont really matter because there is no way to trust the system anymore.
I don't agree. If it were due to Russian influence, the nation wide polls would have been off, but they were right on the mark, with nearly all of them nailing the popular results to within their margin of error.
The most egregious errors were committed by analysts that gave odds that Hillary had a 90% chance or so of winning. I have no idea how they arrived at those conclusions. You can't blame the Russians for that.
Hawktawk wrote:If votes were changed, deleted or fake names added to rolls the polls WOULD BE OFF IN CRITICAL SWING STATES HE WON BY PERCENTAGES OF A POINT.They clearly were and the rest of the country proves it.As I said Manfort and the Russians along with Jarred Kushner were looking at battleground precinct by precinct in those states according to sworn testimony from Paul manafort and Rick Gates among others and they were sharing it with a russian intelligence operative and Oligarch.
Clearly there was a coordinated all out effort to elect Trump and anyone who thinks they DIDN'T at least ATTEMPT to manufacture or change votes as a key part of that is stupid, flat out.A few votes here and a few there and viola a razor thin believable victory until news of russia broke.US intelligence captured audio of Russian intelligence cheering and saying ""america is ours"
IMO whatever Russia was able to do in 2016 explains the freak out by trump about all mail voting.Foreign manipulation of our ballots is the only chance he has right now.I dont trust our government when they say they have no evidence russia changed votes. I definitely dont trust a foreign adversary with the cyber ability Russia has, the spying capability. And they are getting exactly what they want from this rube, Putin's C@9holster in every meaningful sense of the word. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ru ... -BB160RXXt
Trump has not responded to Russia in any way and denied having knowledge of this. And they wonder why I want to vomit when this traitor to Russia hugs a flag.
As I say its time for the military to intervene. Hes letting troops be killed on Russian orders rather than anger his puppet master.
Hawktawk wrote:If votes were changed, deleted or fake names added to rolls the polls WOULD BE OFF IN CRITICAL SWING STATES HE WON BY PERCENTAGES OF A POINT.They clearly were and the rest of the country proves it.As I said Manfort and the Russians along with Jarred Kushner were looking at battleground precinct by precinct in those states according to sworn testimony from Paul manafort and Rick Gates among others and they were sharing it with a russian intelligence operative and Oligarch.
Hawktawk wrote:Clearly there was a coordinated all out effort to elect Trump and anyone who thinks they DIDN'T at least ATTEMPT to manufacture or change votes as a key part of that is stupid, flat out.A few votes here and a few there and viola a razor thin believable victory until news of russia broke.US intelligence captured audio of Russian intelligence cheering and saying ""america is ours"
Hawktawk wrote:As I say its time for the military to intervene. Hes letting troops be killed on Russian orders rather than anger his puppet master.
Hawktawk wrote:As I say its time for the military to intervene. Hes letting troops be killed on Russian orders rather than anger his puppet master.
Hawktawk wrote:As I say its time for the military to intervene. Hes letting troops be killed on Russian orders rather than anger his puppet master.
Aseahawkfan wrote:
Riverdog,
The fact that anyone believes this "new" story with little substantiation shows the clear power of the media when combined with psychosis against the individual the media is attacking. We are clearly no longer a Democracy, but a media-manipulated oligarchy. And that is unfortunate.
I think if this COVID19 lock down has proven anything it is that the media has more power to manipulate the masses than the government, both right and left. Even politicians are unable to control what many of these psychotics believe and want to act upon.
Right now hawktawk is advocating a military takeover via the military after reading a barely substantiated story. Just be happy the people running these organizations aren't as whacked out as the people running the government other than Dumb as Dirt, who the loons elected.
c_hawkbob wrote:The fact that anyone whose intellect I usually respect believes the Trumpworld version of events over the media blows me away. Seems his attack on the media's credibility has had it's intended effect.
RiverDog wrote:Trump is having more problems than the COVID crisis. There's a report being circulated that the Russians were offering bounties to the Taliban to kill American soldiers and Trump was told about it as far back as early 2019. The White House is in full retreat, insisting that the POTUS was never briefed on the intelligence. Lawmakers from both parties are wanting answers.
Then there's the problem with Trump's re-tweeting of a video showing a supporter making a racist gesture that he took down a few hours after he tweeted it and although it's plausible to think that he hadn't seen the gesture before he tweeted it, neither Trump or his surrogates have denounce it. Then there's his tweet of a video showing armed white residents waving guns and threatening peaceful protesters with deadly force. General Mattis is exactly right. Trump doesn't even pretend to unite the nation and heal wounds. It's not in his playbook.
There's a new poll out, from Idahawkman's favorite polling organization Rasmussen, showing an alarming result for an incumbent President with a whopping 45 point difference, 69% to 24%, in response to the question whether the country is on the right track or wrong track. Obviously not every respondent is going to hang the blame on Trump, but it's not news his campaign wants to hear. They're going to be playing a lot of defense this fall.
Biden doesn't even have to leave his basement to win this election. Trump is self destructing. His obsession with Twitter is taking him down. Live by the sword, die by the sword.
Aseahawkfan wrote:Dumb as Dirt Donald is in way over his head at this point. I'll never forget his, "You loot, we shoot" tweet. Or his talk of "slowing down testing because we'll fine corona virus cases." How dumb do you have to be to not want to find virus cases and make sure people know they might spread this to someone vulnerable? That was so dumb that I find it hard for anyone to defend it. If you're defending that dumb comment, you''re dumb yourself.
Then posting a video of two black men hitting a white person and asking why no protests? Protests of what? Protest all black men because a couple of criminals beat someone else? What kind of idiot to you have to be to post this?
Dumb as Dirt Donald is ridiculous. Even Dumb as DIrt wins re-election, enough Americans will ignore him, march against him, and resist him that it will send this nation into chaos. Dumb as Dirt needs to go, so this nation can obtain a leader who doesn't want to protect Confederates, ask for people to protest a particular race, encourage "domination" in the streets, and invite a total all out resistance to Dumb as Dirt from the politicians to the people.
Biden better pick a halfway decent Vice Presidential candidate to seal the deal against Dumb as Dirt. He picks a bad VP and Dumb as Dirt might pull this out leading to four years of chaos I can't even imagine at this point.
RiverDog wrote:I'm beginning to wonder if Trump doesn't care whether or not he gets re-elected. He's completely out of touch with the overwhelming sentiment of the COVID crisis regarding this mask thing that he's decided to turn into a referendum on his management of the crisis. In a recent poll, nearly 90% of Americans say that they are wearing one in public. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, VP Mike Pence, even Trump's biggest boot licking friend in the media Shawn Hannity have gotten on board and advocated wearing masks when they are in public and can't maintain social distancing, but Trump has yet to come out and support wearing them let alone set an example and don one himself.
This Friday, Trump is making a trip to Mt. Rushmore for a fireworks celebration where social distancing and mask wearing will be optional despite the event's website saying that participants will be "...in close contact for an extended amount of time”. Due to dry conditions and concerns about wildfires, there hasn't been any 4th of July fireworks at the landmark for over a decade, and this season appears no different, with Forest Service managers from 6 districts near the monument calling it unwise.
The EU recently relaxed travel restrictions from a number of countries, including Japan, South Korea, and even China, but not the United States. That has to be a poke in the eye to Trump to have citizens from his rival and main punching bag in the crisis be allowed to travel but not us.
Biden made one of his few public appearances yesterday and claimed that our wartime President has surrendered to the COVID crisis. I have to agree.
Aseahawkfan wrote:I know more than a few folks who think Biden has zero chance of winning. They think Biden appears senile and weak and will be look even worse once Biden and Trump go head to head. I know if Biden picks a bad VP candidate who can't handle herself or with some extreme leftist background, he's likely to lose. Which is just sad at this point considering the Democrats are seemingly more idiotic than the Republicans led by Trump.
Aseahawkfan wrote:This whole era has exposed how much both parties have fallen into extreme, polarized thinking that not many of us want. Both parties are getting pushed by their extremist members take no prisoners, media driven fearmongering BS that is driving this country to the state it is. We have the worst leadership I've seen in my lifetime.
RiverDog wrote:Very true. IMO Trump is primarily responsible for this polarization, but he is by no means alone. I've never seen the nation as divided as it is today, and that includes the 60's with all the assassinations, riots, Vietnam, etc.
I'm ripe for a 3rd party, but it's simply not in the cards anytime soon.
RiverDog wrote:Very true. IMO Trump is primarily responsible for this polarization, but he is by no means alone. I've never seen the nation as divided as it is today, and that includes the 60's with all the assassinations, riots, Vietnam, etc.
I'm ripe for a 3rd party, but it's simply not in the cards anytime soon.
Aseahawkfan wrote:Trump has leveraged the divisiveness to greatest effect. But the real source is the media. When it became profitable to push political bias in the media for ratings, that is when the train started going off the tracks. The rise of the media as agenda driven and politically biased has caused this divide to reach the level it is at. Let's be real here. All the way back in the annals of time humans have been sheep to the man who can stoke their fears, hopes, and emotions. The media has magnified and monetized these folks to push various agendas. If you're a standard person of common intelligence who decides to take these talking heads and rhetoriticians at face value allowing their opinions to become your own absent analysis and deeper research, then you hand over enormous power to shape the culture and beliefs of a nation to these men. These men are often not particularly good people, but much more like Donald Trump preying on the fears and emotions of the masses for their personal gain. This has been the battle between men for ages. You know as well as I that this is by far the majority of people.
Aseahawkfan wrote:The best case scenario if Trump should win is the Republicans losing the Senate. Then not much will get done and Trump will spend four years in a cage dodging investigations with very little getting done. He might even get impeached and removed as a deal to get rid of the idiot.
Aseahawkfan wrote:We shall see. I know the polls are saying one thing, while almost no one I know has switched their vote from Trump. The constant attacks on him by the Democrats and other liberal groups just further inflame these Trump voters by making Trump look like a victim. I think if these folks could manage to remain quiet, Trump would have hung himself. But they just can't let Dumb as Dirt dig a grave he can't get out of. The Democrats have sent this nearly 80 year old man on a last ride to stop the loon. No idea why the Dems couldn't find a better candidate, but maybe it is fitting that this battle between two old men, both representing dying ways of thinking oppose each other. I think in the future political candidates for both parties will look very different as will our nation.
RiverDog wrote:The game changer for Trump was/is Twitter. It allowed him to bypass the media altogether and to get his message out unfiltered. If it wasn't for the fact that he's so far out of step with the rest of society, he'd be taking advantage of it during this current pandemic and acting presidential, rallying the 'troops' around the flag in a crisis, but instead, due to his addiction to the medium and his propensity for his mouth to get ahead of his brain, it's showing all of his warts and gives his critics plenty of ammo. Live by the sword, die by the sword.
If Trump wins in November, he won't be able to do much unless he controls both Houses. Impeachment is a dead issue. The Dems wasted their ammo last year. As a lame duck and no threat of impeachment, Trump would be unbearable as he wouldn't have to answer to either Congress or the public.
If your friends are mostly white males, then I can believe that none of them have switched. That's his rock solid base. Trump's biggest problem recently has been with white suburban female voters. Those are the ones they are most concerned about and the ones most likely to flip.
Trump won in 2016 by a very narrow margin, less than 100K voters in two states, so Biden doesn't have to flip any Trump voters. All he has to do is re-constitute Obama's coalition, the same voters HRC was unable to reach and sat out 2016, he'll beat Trump by 100+ electoral votes and 5+% in the popular vote. Given the racial tensions that Trump has done nothing but inflame and Biden's relatively high rating with blacks, the challenger has an excellent opportunity to reinvigorate that group of voters. That's why his VP choice, as you pointed out, is critical.
The coronavirus has been to Biden's benefit. It gives his managers an excuse to keep him under wraps. Trump's campaign is going to have to smoke him out, get him into an ad lib situation where Biden is prone to making huge gaffes, like the one when made when he said if you're a black that supports Trump, that you ain't black. In the meantime, the "give him enough rope and he'll hang himself" strategy the Biden people are employing against Trump is working to a 'T'. Trump's worst enemy is himself.
Aseahawkfan wrote:Do you think Twitter helped him much with his base? Do white males or older voters hang out on Twitter? I have trouble believing Twitter helped him much with his base. Older white male voters and older voters in general.
If Trump wins in November, he won't be able to do much unless he controls both Houses. Impeachment is a dead issue. The Dems wasted their ammo last year. As a lame duck and no threat of impeachment, Trump would be unbearable as he wouldn't have to answer to either Congress or the public.
Aseahawkfan wrote:He would be unbearable talking, but a toothless dog as his bark would become worse than his bite. He would have no backing, no protection, and if he won with a Democratic Congress, he would have to be way more careful than he is without the protection of the Senate from removal. He would go mad in The White House, constantly blaming the Dems, while the Dems vote against nearly everything he wants and vote to block him on everything. He might quit if he won with a Democratic Congress as it would be four years of hell for him. Pelosi and probably Schumer in charge ignoring him, telling him to go F himself, and generally acting as his foil for his second term.
Aseahawkfan wrote:We'll see won't we. I want to see how this plays out. If Trump picks a woman of African descent, I want to see how that plays. We're really seeing the racists in his base driven to into a tizzy by the BLM movement and all the attacks on their values and lives. They aren't the ones openly talking about it, but in private they are in a rage waiting for their chance to vote. I want to see how strong their racist viewpoint is if Trump picks a female VP of African descent. It will depend on the candidate. How friendly is she to business? How extreme is her viewpoint on race and how to fix those problems? Contrary to what you're seeing right now, moderate voters of European aka white ancestry are scared of this extremist racial movement. They're on board with stopping police brutality, but not this whole rip everything down situation they're watching. It's very polarizing. I want to see how that plays out. Biden will need a VP candidate that can show these moderate white voters that they don't plan to encourage this rip everything down and encourage racial chaos in the culture of America.
There may be blow back from all of that if isn't handled well that may push Trump back into office.
Aseahawkfan wrote:You ever had a racist relative? I recently found out of one my relative's a very racist person. I really hate racists. It's make it very hard to talk to this relative. I may never talk to them again. I'm not sure at this point. If we had been face to face and this relative was talking as they were rather than on the phone, I may have physically struck them. I would likely at least have thrown them from my home. Racism is evil in my mind. Racists have tried to ruin this nation and the world for ages. Racism and the type of thinking involved in racist thought has caused the most human tragedy in history and racism specifically in America. I despise those people. Very hard to tolerate. I won't tolerate it even from a relative.
RiverDog wrote:I have a relatively small family so outside my parents, both born in 1925 and are deceased, I don't have a relative that I would consider a racist. My one sibling married an Ethiopian girl so my only two nephews are multi racial (and great kids that I'm extremely proud of).
Although my psychological make-up is similar to yours regarding our attitudes towards racists, so long as they are law abiding, I tolerate them more than I would guess that you do. We have a former neighbor and a good friend of my wife's that is extremely racist and expresses it often. She says stuff like "Obama is a frigging Muslim" and will blame everything from the common cold to global warming on illegal aliens, but she's not smart enough to articulate her opinion so I just let it fly and usually end up biting
my tongue and excusing myself. I treat discussions about racism similarly to the three taboo subjects that you don't talk about on a first date: Sex, politics, and religion. I only discuss those subjects with close friends, all of whom are not racists.
Aseahawkfan wrote:I'm not talking about some stupid opinion with no basis in reality. I'm talking about using racial epithets and talking about they "hate black people" and crap like that. People that say some vile crap. Racial epithets are something I don't much tolerate from people I know. Someone using them around me in a casual fashion will be flushed from my life. That is intolerable to me.
RiverDog wrote:
I honestly don't know anyone like that, at least not within my current circle of friends. But I agree, it's intolerable.
RiverDog wrote:I honestly don't know anyone like that, at least not within my current circle of friends. But I agree, it's intolerable.
RiverDog wrote:I think I'm safe in assuming that he's not within your circle of friends. What a disgusting POS. I have a hard time coming to grips with that way of thinking. A person must be damn insecure to allow those kinds of feelings permeate their consciousness.
RiverDog wrote:That remark made for blacks to "go back to Africa" reminded me of DJT's tweet to The Squad to "go back to where you came from".
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest