Russell Wilson on 3rd Down

[RiverDog]

I didn't expect to see this, but it's very telling:

https://www.footballdb.com/statistics/n ... rt=passpct

Russell's 3rd down completion percentage is just 40.6%, worst in the league for starting quarterbacks. Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean it's all Russell's fault, but it does highlight our offense's problems on 3rd down, our time of possession problems, and so forth.

We rank dead last in time of possession:

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/a ... -net-of-ot

[trents]

The team needs a massive overhaul on offense and it needs to start with the coaching staff. The offense is predictable and unimaginative.

[Hawktawk]

I didn't expect to see this, but it's very telling:

https://www.footballdb.com/statistics/n ... rt=passpct

Russell's 3rd down completion percentage is just 40.6%, worst in the league for starting quarterbacks. Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean it's all Russell's fault, but it does highlight our offense's problems on 3rd down, our time of possession problems, and so forth.

We rank dead last in time of possession:

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/a ... -net-of-ot

It’s not shocking to me . It’s how you go 2-5 last 7 starts . Russ increasingly makes his living deeper down the field . Russ isn’t Russ. Not clutch . Not sustaining drives . I don’t really know how you blame scheme when the man simply can’t complete passes on 3rd down although I don’t know how many times we’ve needed 3 yards and Russ throws it up 30 yards . Somethings wrong . I am surprised he’s worst in the league at it . Makes sense . We might keep
In mind the TOP almost certainly improved with Genos more consistent moving of chains . When Russ was injured we had gained 15 yards in the entire third quarter . I’d be curious Genos 3rd down stats , not to argue but to be educated why the offense seemingly functioned more smoothly with a journeyman than Russ Wilson .

[NorthHawk]

Without a viable run game and very little push from the OL, we’ve become one dimensional so it’s no wonder
our third down conversion rate is so bad. It’s much easier to defend a one dimensional team than one where
nobody knows what’s coming.

[RiverDog]

Without a viable run game and very little push from the OL, we’ve become one dimensional so it’s no wonder
our third down conversion rate is so bad. It’s much easier to defend a one dimensional team than one where
nobody knows what’s coming.

Russell has otherwise very good QB stats so his miserable 3rd down completion percentage is undoubtedly more than just his not being clutch. Our running game, specifically our short yardage running game, is horrible.

I can't remember which one of us it was that questioned why Pete always defaults to punting on 4th and short while other coaches around the league will yield to analytics. The answer is very simple. We suck on 3rd down, so the analytics for our team differ dramatically from that of the average NFL team.

[I-5]

Does anyone have a clue why we don't do more QB sneaks, esp on 4th down? Statistically, it's almost impossible to stop, which is why so many teams do it - even Brady. Instead, we'll do something ultra predictable like run between tackles, then Pete will say 'see? I told you, that's why we don't go for it'. It's maddening to watch./

According to PFF, the probability of converting a QB sneak is a ridiculous 85%. Nothing else in sports or betting gives you odds like that.
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-just-fall-forward-nfl-teams-qb-sneak-underutilized

[RiverDog]

Does anyone have a clue why we don't do more QB sneaks, esp on 4th down? Statistically, it's almost impossible to stop, which is why so many teams do it - even Brady. Instead, we'll do something ultra predictable like run between tackles, then Pete will say 'see? I told you, that's why we don't go for it'. It's maddening to watch./

According to PFF, the probability of converting a QB sneak is a ridiculous 85%. Nothing else in sports or betting gives you odds like that.
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-just-fall-forward-nfl-teams-qb-sneak-underutilized

I've always assumed that it's because Russell is so small. It's not like he's Cam Newton and can move the pile on his own or leap over bodies and break the plane. We've had 3 coordinators with Russell as a starter and none of them have run QB sneaks, so it must be about the player.

And like analytics, the problem with PFF's stats is that they aren't team or player specific.

[NorthHawk]

It’s simple.
We can’t push on the DL enough to get the necessary yards. That’s part of why we need an upgrade
at Center and the OL in general.
Being able to control the LoS is the key and we don’t have the horses to get it done.

[I-5]

I've always assumed that it's because Russell is so small. It's not like he's Cam Newton and can move the pile on his own or leap over bodies and break the plane. We've had 3 coordinators with Russell as a starter and none of them have run QB sneaks, so it must be about the player.

I think it's pretty clearly about Pete. Russ isn't going to do it in his own without the coach letting him. More than the OC, it's Pete that pushes the button on going for it or not, and you can bet if it's going to be a sneak, he has to approve it. Russ himself doesn't have to move any pile, and he's plenty athletic and compact. As for PFF, they take into account every team, so that means even teams with more anemic offenses than us are figured into it....Jets, Browns, Dolphins, etc

[RiverDog]

I've always assumed that it's because Russell is so small. It's not like he's Cam Newton and can move the pile on his own or leap over bodies and break the plane. We've had 3 coordinators with Russell as a starter and none of them have run QB sneaks, so it must be about the player.

I think it's pretty clearly about Pete. Russ isn't going to do it in his own without the coach letting him. More than the OC, it's Pete that pushes the button on going for it or not, and you can bet if it's going to be a sneak, he has to approve it. Russ himself doesn't have to move any pile, and he's plenty athletic and compact. As for PFF, they take into account every team, so that means even teams with more anemic offenses than us are figured into it....Jets, Browns, Dolphins, etc

So Pete is so involved in the offense that he's told all 3 of his coordinators never to call a QB sneak? I'm not buying that one. Every quarterback at every level has the option of doing a quick snap with the center should they see an opening.

I'd be curious to know if there's a relationship between a QB's success/attempt rate on QB sneaks and their size. Are Cam Newton and Ben Worthlessburger anymore likely to run a QB sneak and succeed than Russell, Drew Brees, or Kyler Murray? Perhaps I'm biased, but I don't recall Russ, Brees, and Murray running QB sneaks quite like I do Newton and Worthlessburger.

[Hawktawk]

I know Russ ran 1 called sneak this year and converted it . As for blaming our run game it averaged over 4 ypc in a shutout loss. We only handed off 11 times though as PC himself pointed out . Meanwhile we threw 40 times with a qb whose finger was sore enough he didn’t go under center a single time in the game . Is he checking to passes ? Otherwise that pitch count was ridiculous by Waldron . Looks like we get McCoy. No excuse for Russ to lose that matchup although he did last year when McCoy was a Giant .

[NorthHawk]

Why would you run a QB sneak when your OL isn't capable of moving the DL forward?

[RiverDog]

Why would you run a QB sneak when your OL isn't capable of moving the DL forward?

Even in years where we had decent drive blockers, like when we had James Carpenter, we didn't very often run QB sneaks.

[Hawktawk]

Russ just isn’t built for it . He’s solid at 215 lbs or so but short with short arms and not powerful enough to get it on his own like Brady or Allen etc . He’s got to have a lineman win somewhere . The one I recall this year he went in between center and right guard . I also recall an attempt on either 3rd or 4th down years ago in AZ and Russ got stuffed and tweaked himself and was a bit gimpy for a bit . I don’t recall any designed sneaks after that one till this year . It’s just not in his Arsenal but he makes lots of other plays with his feet . We need him to make plays with his arm . It’s almost certainly Colt MCCoy . O excuses.

[RiverDog]

Russ just isn’t built for it . He’s solid at 215 lbs or so but short with short arms and not powerful enough to get it on his own like Brady or Allen etc . He’s got to have a lineman win somewhere . The one I recall this year he went in between center and right guard . I also recall an attempt on either 3rd or 4th down years ago in AZ and Russ got stuffed and tweaked himself and was a bit gimpy for a bit . I don’t recall any designed sneaks after that one till this year . It’s just not in his Arsenal but he makes lots of other plays with his feet . We need him to make plays with his arm . It’s almost certainly Colt MCCoy . O excuses.

Plus there are situations where QB's will jump and dive over the LOS to break the plane, and at 5'10" and 215 lbs, I seriously doubt that Russell can stuff a basketball.

[Hawktawk]

I wouldn’t rule it out at least early in his career . Russ ran 4.5 and was a great athlete who also plays baseball . I played some pickup basketball 40 years ago with a former running back from Iowa state . He was 5’6” and could pack it 2 handed at will. We don’t need Wilson sneaking . We need him moving chains .

[I-5]

Plus there are situations where QB's will jump and dive over the LOS to break the plane, and at 5'10" and 215 lbs, I seriously doubt that Russell can stuff a basketball.

That's quite an assumption that he doesn't have the hops. Anyway, most sneaks don't involve leaping, just falling forward. I think the real reason we don't do it is because Pete is worried if anything happens to Russ - which I understand. Having said that, there are plenty less able and athletic QB's who are successfully getting firsts downs via sneak, but I can see it's pointless to discuss it here.