Seahawks Open as 7 point Favorites

[savvyman]

Over the Packers.

Patriots are also 7 points favorites over the Colts.

I would take the Colts and 7 points this week.

[RiverDog]

I agree, take the Colts and 7. A touchdown is a pretty big margin in the betting world.

IMO 7 seems a little high in our game vs. the Packers. I suppose Rodgers injury status is what's driving it up.

[Zorn76]

7 does seem a little high, I agree.

Then again, folks are gonna consider a gimpy Rodgers, and we did beat the Packers in week one, even though that feels like a year ago already, lol.

We have such a Huge advantage with HFA, too. Our average margin of victory is (last time I heard) is in the double digits. We also beat the Packers by 20 at the time. Different circumstances now, but if we end up winning by 10 it wouldn't surprise me, either.

[kalibane]

Clearly you guys didn't watch the 20+ point ass beatings the Patriots delivered to the Colts when they played them. Dare I say we have some people here buying into the Myth of Andrew Luck. I'm laying the points taking the Patriots.

[monkey]

Clearly you guys didn't watch the 20+ point ass beatings the Patriots delivered to the Colts when they played them. Dare I say we have some people here buying into the Myth of Andrew Luck. I'm laying the points taking the Patriots.

Exactly what I was thinking.
The Colts are going to get beat down. They're simply not as good as the Pats, not by a long stretch. They cannot run the ball, cannot stop Gronk, and most importantly, they cannot stop making stupid turnovers, including Andrew Luck throwing multiple picks. At this point you can count on him throwing multiple picks in playoff games as pretty much a guarantee.
I predict a blowout.

[Hawktawk]

Clearly you guys didn't watch the 20+ point ass beatings the Patriots delivered to the Colts when they played them. Dare I say we have some people here buying into the Myth of Andrew Luck. I'm laying the points taking the Patriots.

The Colts got jumped on by Denver in week 1 before closing the gap late in the game. They have 2 playoff wins under their belt now and it isn't because of Luck. Their defense has improved as has their running game. I'm not a betting man but ill take the 7 in that one. We will see about Seattle vs the Pack. How the game is called in the secondary is going to be a huge key. Both road teams have the advantage of having played the opponent in the same stadium. It didn't really work out for the Saints last year so we will see. I think Rodgers gimpy calf is huge in this game.

[kalibane]

We aren't talking about Denver. We are talking about New England. You see the Seahawks exposed the ugly truth about Manning. If he isn't 100% healthy he cannot beat you deep. The Colts defense had nothing to do with that. Denver had receivers open all day. Manning just couldn't hit them. He can't drive the ball down field and his floaters were inaccurate. So the Colts loaded up on the run and played press man squatting on the underneath routes.

Brady hasn't been great deep this year either but if you don't get pressure on Brady he will shred you. They have no one that will match up with Gronk, Revis is going to erase one side of the field while everyone else keys on Hilton. Belichek is going to take Andrew Luck and his paper mache team apart just like he did the last two times.

Did everyone forget about how Dallas took them apart at the end of the year? I'm way more comfortable giving up 7 points to the Colts in this game than I am giving up 7 to the Packers (if I'm making an actual bet).

Pats will bring these guys back down to earth.

[Hawktawk]

I just want to be playing the winner no matter who it is. Id love it to be luck but wouldn't fear Brady. He has a better arm than Manning at this point but is equally ineffective if he is constantly being pushed off his spot. Seattle has the linebackers to deal with Gronk too.

[kalibane]

The Colts will be the easier team so maybe I should be pulling for them but for legacy I'd love for Russell Wilson to have taken down the two best QBs of this era in the Superbowl.

[Hawktawk]

That would be cool too but Eli Manning has already done it to Brady....twice. I want to watch SB # prove Luck Sucks......Go Colts.

[kalibane]

It won't prove Luck Sucks.

1. He doesn't.

2. The narrative would inevitably be the Seahawks won because they are the far better team but look at what Andrew Luck was able to do, make it to the Super Bowl with no defense or running game.

[mykc14]

It won't prove Luck Sucks.

1. He doesn't.

2. The narrative would inevitably be the Seahawks won because they are the far better team but look at what Andrew Luck was able to do, make it to the Super Bowl with no defense or running game.

I think #1 can't be said enough here. Luck doesn't suck, he is a very good qb and on pace to have a stellar NFL career. I know he and RW will be compared their entire careers which is good, IMO, as it will add to their NFL stories like manning vs. Brady. The good news is they will actually be able to meet in SB. I want the NFL to recognize RW's greatness as much as anybody but it simply isn't going to happen, especially when it comes to comparing Luck. As is continually mentioned he turns the ball over way too much and has not played that great in the playoffs. RW on the other hand has played extremely well in the playoffs and is just starting to get the recognition he deserves. Just like everything else in his life he has to do more to prove to the world he is great. If Luck wins 1 SB the national media will not take their nose off of his jock for the rest of his career, RW will have to win multiple SB's to get the recognition he already deserves.

[Bird Droppings]

Last week in a thread I pointed out this team had "IT ".

In offering you an opportunity to put your money where your mouth is, the spread has now gone to 7 1/2 favoring the Hawks ...and there is plenty of speculation it will keep climbing.

Remember, Green Bay has lots of followers ... and bettors ... from all over the place ... so the usual tactic of automatically issuing 3 points to a home team three points is a consideration in that spread.

And, the goal of Vegas is to get an equal amount of money bet on both teams. They don't care who wins or loses as they are getting ten per cent from those who lose the bet, and operate on that margin.

If they set the spread, in consideration of a lot of people traditionally betting Green Bay ... and, because it is the playoffs you will have more bandwagon jumpers putting money down on such a team ... that enticing bet is slipping.

They increased the spread by a half point because more people are betting on the Seahawks and fewer on the Packers as originally anticipated.

Those who put down big money regularly will wait until the last minute to make (or not make) a bet.

There will be a lot of talk about Aaron Rodgers leg this week ... and how much of that is misdirection as opposed to mystery will be a factor in where that spread goes.

There is very little talk this morning about how the line is moving ... probably because the oddsmakers themselves don't know about the reality of that leg.

They have always had inside information, those wily oddsmakers.

If you see a jump of a point and a half or more ... to Seattle being favored by 9 or 10 ... it is because a lot of money is being bet on the Hawks, a lot more than is being bet on the Packers.

...and that is because ....

...many are embracing the IT factor.


Why, with all the blather yesterday and today, has no one jumped on the fact that Mr. Rodgers had an extra week for his leg to recover before getting severely messed up in the Cowboys game?

He ain't got that extra week until this Sunday.

Don't bet the house, but you might do well to bet half your backside on Seattle giving 7 and one half.

Then again, maybe the "officials" will pull a Dallas scenario ... give them a game one week, and take it away the next.

Could that happen this Sunday?

zoom

[Anthony]

I think #1 can't be said enough here. Luck doesn't suck, he is a very good qb and on pace to have a stellar NFL career. I know he and RW will be compared their entire careers which is good, IMO, as it will add to their NFL stories like manning vs. Brady. The good news is they will actually be able to meet in SB. I want the NFL to recognize RW's greatness as much as anybody but it simply isn't going to happen, especially when it comes to comparing Luck. As is continually mentioned he turns the ball over way too much and has not played that great in the playoffs. RW on the other hand has played extremely well in the playoffs and is just starting to get the recognition he deserves. Just like everything else in his life he has to do more to prove to the world he is great. If Luck wins 1 SB the national media will not take their nose off of his jock for the rest of his career, RW will have to win multiple SB's to get the recognition he already deserves.

Experts are already taking notice about Luck, Ed Reed brought up all his TOs on the show he is on and the others agreed, then Boomer tried to say but he has not help and Reed would have none of it, and the others agreed with Reed and Boomer relented. Luck is a very good QB but he is far form the messiah some think he is, and he is not RW. Even Warner and some of those guys are starting to see it too. As to Indy vs Seattle, I highly doubt it will happen his year, as I doubt they get by the Pats, as to Lucks defense they won that game yesterday not Luck and his top 10 oline and top 10 WR corps. Something Wilsons does not have, and another thing Sanders and that crew has been saying of late.

[kalibane]

Well, and this goes back to my thread about Rodgers during preseason, my thing about Rodgers has always been the media has invented this narrative around him where he is so hyper competitive with a chip on his shoulder who never forgives slights and settles all debts (almost like a Michael Jordon sort of thing).

I have never seen this from him. He's a great talent. A very Hard worker. By all accounts one of the best QBs in the league. He'd be 2nd in my MVP vote behind JJ Watt. But in 2012 when he finally got a chance to go back to San Francisco and make the 9ers pay for drafting Alex Smith over him. He lost. When he had the chance to avenge that loss against SF in week one of 2013 he lost. When he had the chance to get SF in his house for a change in the 2013 playoffs, he lost. When he had the chance to "avenge the Fail Mary", he lost.

Furthermore, Rodgers has been starting for 7 years. In 7 years he has fewer 4th Quarter comebacks and game winning drives than either Russell Wilson or Andrew Luck have had in 3 seasons. He has the same number of 4th quarter comebacks as Colin Kaepernick. What does that mean? I don't know but it's the closest I can come to illustrating why in my gut Aaron Rodgers feels over-rated and doesn't have as much of the "it" factor as the media would have you believe.

[Hawktawk]

Oh the media will be on Rodgers jock alright.He was already being compared to Tiger winning the 2008 US open or Willis Reed playing basketball on a broken leg by the end of the Dallas game. Give me a friggin break. Dallas hardly got close enough to exhale on him. I will be watching to see how much holding is called on GB's line and how the secondary calls are handled. If Seattle is allowed to play their brand of ball I think its a 14 pt. game strictly due to Rodgers lack of mobility. Whatever happens I don't want to be talking about refs on Monday.

[RiverDog]

Clearly you guys didn't watch the 20+ point ass beatings the Patriots delivered to the Colts when they played them. Dare I say we have some people here buying into the Myth of Andrew Luck. I'm laying the points taking the Patriots.

Oh, I watched it, alright. I was in Vegas and bet $100 on under in that game and lost my butt. I just think that 7 points is a helluva lot of points to give between two teams good enough to advance to a conference championship game.

I agree about Indy being the easier team for us to beat. But I'm not into this "win the SB by means of the path of least resistance" attitude. I want to beat the 2nd best team in the league and beat them by 4 TD's like we did last year so there is absolutely no doubt in anyone's mind. I'll be watching Indy/NE, but only out of my interest in watching football, not because I'm rooting for one or the other to win.

[Hawk Sista]

Well, and this goes back to my thread about Rodgers during preseason, my thing about Rodgers has always been the media has invented this narrative around him where he is so hyper competitive with a chip on his shoulder who never forgives slights and settles all debts (almost like a Michael Jordon sort of thing).

I have never seen this from him. He's a great talent. A very Hard worker. By all accounts one of the best QBs in the league. He'd be 2nd in my MVP vote behind JJ Watt. But in 2012 when he finally got a chance to go back to San Francisco and make the 9ers pay for drafting Alex Smith over him. He lost. When he had the chance to avenge that loss against SF in week one of 2013 he lost. When he had the chance to get SF in his house for a change in the 2013 playoffs, he lost. When he had the chance to "avenge the Fail Mary", he lost.

Furthermore, Rodgers has been starting for 7 years. In 7 years he has fewer 4th Quarter comebacks and game winning drives than either Russell Wilson or Andrew Luck have had in 3 seasons. He has the same number of 4th quarter comebacks as Colin Kaepernick. What does that mean? I don't know but it's the closest I can come to illustrating why in my gut Aaron Rodgers feels over-rated and doesn't have as much of the "it" factor as the media would have you believe.

I dunno.............. I kinda see how that narrative is written on A-Rodgers as I seem to remember him being pretty bitter over the fail Mary play (which I hate to call it because I think the attention the damn thing got was orchestrated to get the "real refs" back). Perhaps I am remembering this wrong, but I believe he made comments about the bad call as it related to seeding in the playoffs and was pissed about having to play SF in SF...if we only had that win we were robbed of back, we'd be seeded differently kind of comment. He coulda won those games you mention above, but he didn't. I lost respect for him with his sour-puss reaction to that game. I respect his numbers and him as a QB, just less so as professional. Though you read over and over that he is a good guy and treats people well, I REALLY REALLY hope we beat the Packers.

[kalibane]

Think you missed what I was trying to say.

He has the chip on his shoulder, he wanted nothing more than to beat SF in 2012 and stick it to them for passing on him. He was seething after Fail Mary and wanted nothing more than to ruin Seattle's coronation at the opener this year.

But it hasn't helped him win necessarily. Three cracks at SF to make them pay and he's lost all three. When they got down to SF in 2012 playoffs it looked like he just accepted it. And letting them come into Lambeau, inexcusable if you are one of the great "chip on your shoulder" players. Obviously he got embarrassed in the opener this year.

I wouldn't characterize him as a choker, but people act like he's an absolute assassin and that I don't get. 7 years as a starter. 8 fourth quarter comebacks and 8 game winning drives. Basically one per season. Does that sound like an assassin to you? That really seams off to me.

Feel like I'm doing a poor job explaining it because I don't want to confuse it with not having a healthy respect for him but if you tell me, "Aaron Rodgers is coming... and this time it's personal", the fact that it's personal puts zero extra fear in my heart.

Now Tom Brady, Richard Sherman, Steve Smith, Sr.... those guys say it's personal and I'm a little bit more scared. Not Rodgers.

[NorthHawk]

4th quarter comebacks mean you were behind.
He's had a lot of success in his 7 years and he's played behind some real bad OL's, too along with a limited run game until the last 2 years.
He has it all as a QB, he fully understands his Offense, and he's won the big one, so I have no problems calling him one of, if not the best QB at the moment (when healthy).

[kalibane]

It's not just because he has a great offense and is always in front. Peyton Manning put ms up just as many points and yet in the same time frame he has 22 4th quarter comebacks. It's not that he's relatively low. He's REALLY low compared to his peers.

By the by.... The 4th quarter comebacks are just a way to try and explain my feeling, not the basis for my feeling. The reason why I started feeling this way is because the media constantly churns out this narrative about Rodgers but then he goes out, doesn't live up to it and it still never affects the narrative. They just act like it never happened.

[monkey]

We aren't talking about Denver. We are talking about New England. You see the Seahawks exposed the ugly truth about Manning. If he isn't 100% healthy he cannot beat you deep. The Colts defense had nothing to do with that. Denver had receivers open all day. Manning just couldn't hit them. He can't drive the ball down field and his floaters were inaccurate. So the Colts loaded up on the run and played press man squatting on the underneath routes.

Brady hasn't been great deep this year either but if you don't get pressure on Brady he will shred you. They have no one that will match up with Gronk, Revis is going to erase one side of the field while everyone else keys on Hilton. Belichek is going to take Andrew Luck and his paper mache team apart just like he did the last two times.

Did everyone forget about how Dallas took them apart at the end of the year? I'm way more comfortable giving up 7 points to the Colts in this game than I am giving up 7 to the Packers (if I'm making an actual bet).

Pats will bring these guys back down to earth.

Again, that is EXACTLY how I see it as well, like literally word for word.
Seattle gave the world the blueprint for beating Manning and his Broncos, the Colts just followed the formula.
The Broncos were a dead team walking all year, they just didn't know it yet. The Colts are NOT a special team, they are not at all a good match for the Pats, and unless the Pats play an absolutely horrible game I don't see the Colts winning.

[monkey]

Well, and this goes back to my thread about Rodgers during preseason, my thing about Rodgers has always been the media has invented this narrative around him where he is so hyper competitive with a chip on his shoulder who never forgives slights and settles all debts (almost like a Michael Jordon sort of thing).

I have never seen this from him. He's a great talent. A very Hard worker. By all accounts one of the best QBs in the league. He'd be 2nd in my MVP vote behind JJ Watt. But in 2012 when he finally got a chance to go back to San Francisco and make the 9ers pay for drafting Alex Smith over him. He lost. When he had the chance to avenge that loss against SF in week one of 2013 he lost. When he had the chance to get SF in his house for a change in the 2013 playoffs, he lost. When he had the chance to "avenge the Fail Mary", he lost.

Alright, this is just getting kinda creepy now, you're doing it again Kalibane, you're posting exactly what I am thinking.
Dude, GET OUT OF MY HEAD!


The thing that always gets me, is all those failed attempts against San Francisco. For some reason the media seemed to just ignore completely the truth that, San Fran absolutely OWNED Rodgers. I mean they completely dominated the Packers, every single time, in ugly ways.
It was so completely lopsided, and yet the media just...ignored it like it never happened.
They jumped all over Manning for his failures in the playoffs, they jumped all over teams like the Bengals for their failures, but the media just kept telling us all that Rodgers is such a warrior.

Now obviously, just like with Andrew Luck, we are talking about ELITE QB's! No one is even hinting otherwise. But are they overrated?
Yeah, they both are. Personally I think Luck is even more overrated, but they both really are.

[kalibane]

The whole thing with Luck is strange. I think Luck is amazing but it's like you said. They just ignore the flaws in his game. I've heard at least 5-6 different sources completely gush over Luck's performance the other day and I'm like? What am I missing? Am I that biased?

Luck has on many occasions earned the gushes but this Sunday? 2 interceptions and 6.2 yards per attempt on his passes is not a great performance. He won because Peyton Manning had an atrocious day not because Luck was amazing. I want to like Luck but sometimes the media makes it difficult when they act like everything he does should have it's own exhibit in Canton.

[RiverDog]

I perhaps have a little more respect for Luck's ability than the rest of the posters. For much the same reason that I like Russell Wilson, I respect Luck because he is a winner. The Colts were 2-14 the year prior to his arrival and they have yet to fail to qualify for the playoffs. Yea yea, I remember the debates, that Indy's 2-14 record wasn't as bad as it looked, that Curtis Painter was horrible, that they play in the AFC Soft, a swing from a 2-14 season to an 11-5 season is a lot to rationalize.

I do agree the media is pretty bias regarding Luck as well as the points made about Rodgers failings being overlooked. That shouldn't take anything away from their capability, particularly Rodgers. He didn't win an MVP, a SB MVP, two starting All Pro teams, and 4 Pro Bowls on media hype. If we can beat him by 1 point this Sunday, I'll be turning handsprings!

[HumanCockroach]

I've broken down that 2-14 Colts team numerous times, there was a hell of a lot more going on than simply Painter playing like a jr high QB. If you actually go back and look at it, there is a hell of a lot more than just QB play that factored in to it. Though you can't dismiss that either. That was an 8 win team that, had everything go wrong, and then were more than willing to exasperate it once it became clear what ( or who) was at stake.

[RiverDog]

I've broken down that 2-14 Colts team numerous times, there was a hell of a lot more going on than simply Painter playing like a jr high QB. If you actually go back and look at it, there is a hell of a lot more than just QB play that factored in to it. Though you can't dismiss that either. That was an 8 win team that, had everything go wrong, and then were more than willing to exasperate it once it became clear what ( or who) was at stake.

Like I said, I remember those debates about the 2011 Colts. I think it's a recognized fact that quick falls and quick turnarounds are commonplace in this league.

Nevertheless, Luck has had a very good 3 years, 33-15 with three straight playoff appearances and two straight divisional titles and now he has his team one game from the SB. Not as good as Russell's first three years, but not too shabby, either.

[monkey]

The whole thing with Luck is strange. I think Luck is amazing but it's like you said. They just ignore the flaws in his game. I've heard at least 5-6 different sources completely gush over Luck's performance the other day and I'm like? What am I missing? Am I that biased?

Luck has on many occasions earned the gushes but this Sunday? 2 interceptions and 6.2 yards per attempt on his passes is not a great performance. He won because Peyton Manning had an atrocious day not because Luck was amazing. I want to like Luck but sometimes the media makes it difficult when they act like everything he does should have it's own exhibit in Canton.

The final call in that game was something like (paraphrase) "And the evolution Luck continues."
I watched that game, he threw two pretty bad picks, and had a pretty average game yet the announcer made it seem as though it were the SINGLE GREATEST PERFORMANCE EVA!!1!!11!!!!

I think the majority of fans form their "opinions" not from what they see within the context of an entire game, but from select highlights, and from what the media tells them to think. That is the reason Luck is overrated. The media is an echo chamber, reverberating the idea that Luck will undoubtedly become the greatest QB ever, and fans almost by osmosis, pick up that same attitude without REALLY analyzing the claim for truth.

Again, is Luck an elite QB? YES! Absolutely YES HE IS! He's every franchise dream QB.
I'd just like to see people be a little more honest about his actual performance, and admit that he makes a lot of young QB types of mental errors, usually from trying to do too much.