Someone's Going To Be Pizzed!

[RiverDog]

I was just looking at the possible playoff scenerios in the NFC. Here's a possibility that has intrigued me:

If we win our last two and if Detroit and Green Bay both win this weekend (Green Bay gets Tampa, Detroit is at Chicago), then we get the #1 seed.

The #2 seed would go to the Detroit-Green Bay winner.

If the Cowboys lose to Indy or the Skins and the Eagles win out against the Skins and G-men, the Eagles would win the NFC East based on divisional record, so the Eagles would get the #3 seed.

The #4 seed would go to the winner of the NFC South, and the best record any team in that division can achieve would be 8-8.

The #5 seed would go to 12-4 Arizona, assuming they lose to us then beat the Niners.

The #6 seed is where it gets interesting. Under this very plausible scenario, there would be two teams with an 11-5 record, with Dallas being one of those teams. If the Cowboys drop to 11-5 and tie with the Lions, the tiebreaker would go to conference record, of which the Lions currently have 2 conference losses, the Cowboys 4, so the Lions win that tiebreaker.

If the Cowboys tie with an 11-5 Packers team, they would both have 4 conference losses (the Pack has 3 now, would have 4 if they lose to the Lions), the tiebreaker would go all the way to SOS, of which the Pack currently holds an edge (.492 to .444).

The moral of the story is that someone could very possibly miss the playoffs with an 11-5 record while the best possible W/L record for the winner of the NFC South is 8-8. Someone is going to be really pizzed, and it would shickle the tit out of me if it were Jerry Jones.

[burrrton]

Good breakdown. Hardly seems fair, but the only solution would be to scrap the meaningfulness of division play, and there's no way that's going to happen (nor should it- look at the excitement the last 2 weeks of the season hold this year because of it!).

The other (lesser) objection that is going to inevitably be discussed come wildcard weekend is an 11-win team having to travel to the 7-9 or 8-8 NFCS champ, but that can (and should) be remedied with reseeding.

That way you still get *in* to the playoffs by winning your division, but it doesn't guarantee you a home game, both of which seem appropriate to me.

[RiverDog]

Good breakdown. Hardly seems fair, but the only solution would be to scrap the meaningfulness of division play, and there's no way that's going to happen (nor should it- look at the excitement the last 2 weeks of the season hold this year because of it!).

The other (lesser) objection that is going to inevitably be discussed come wildcard weekend is an 11-win team having to travel to the 7-9 or 8-8 NFCS champ, but that can (and should) be remedied with reseeding.

That way you still get *in* to the playoffs by winning your division, but it doesn't guarantee you a home game, both of which seem appropriate to me.

That topic was discussed in 2010 when we went to the playoffs with a 7-9 record and nothing changed. I wouldn't have a problem with changing how the seeds are distributed and a good compromise would be to re-seed after the wild card round to prevent a team like New Orleans from hosting the NFCCG if one of the wild card teams were to advance that far.

If Jerry Jones gets shut out with an 11-5 record, mark my words that something about the playoff format will change. I'll bet that you see the playoffs expand to include 14 or 16 teams within two years. He's never earned anything in his life that he couldn't acquire with money or by changing the rules.

[HumanCockroach]

Yep, I pointed out this exact scenario in the "feel good" thread yesterday. One team is going to lose their minds, and have a real good team sitting at home. The only way for anyone at this point to guarantee a playoff birth in the NFC (minus the Cards) is to win out, some have "better" shots, but there are no one else clinched in, and a team that deserves to be in, won't be.

[NorthHawk]

Jones already wanted to get 8 teams into the playoffs, probably because he might have made it a few times at 8-8.
This will definitely add fuel to the fire if the Cowboys are the odd man out considering the ratings and extra revenue a game with them would bring.
It's all about money.

[burrrton]

That topic was discussed in 2010 when we went to the playoffs with a 7-9 record and nothing changed.

I can't recall why, but I heard it was all but assumed to be a foregone conclusion it was going to change this offseason (maybe there's something else that's going to get done??).

[PasadenaHawk]

Didn't Arizona go 11-5 last year and miss the playoffs

[burrrton]

Didn't Arizona go 11-5 last year and miss the playoffs

10-6 IIRC.

[Hawk Sista]

We could be an 11-5 team that does not get in if we do not beat the Cards...am I right?

[burrrton]

We could be an 11-5 team that does not get in if we do not beat the Cards...am I right?

Yes, because that would keep the possibility of us 'losing out' in place, and if we do that, I think we're out.

If we lose to ARI but beat STL, though, I think we're the 6-seed.

Go here and run scenarios (it's slick):

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

[Zorn76]

*Fun fact: The 1985 Broncos and 2008 Patriots were the last two teams to miss the playoffs with an 11-5 record.

We'll see if the Cowboys join that club, lol.
Couldn't happen to a nicer owner, eh Jerrah?

[Hawktawk]

The1986 Hawks stayed home with a 10-6 record and blowout wins over their last 4 opponents. It might have been Knox's best team ever except Krieg entered into a slump leading to Gilbert making some starts. And the tiebreakers that went against them on the final weekend were ridiculous such as KC winning with NO points on offense. That team beat the Giants and pounded the Broncos, the participants in the SB.

So really I have no sympathy if some team gets screwed. Every team controls their destiny on week one and every week they can see what they need to do. Too bad so sad. Don't change a thing...

[RiverDog]

We could be an 11-5 team that does not get in if we do not beat the Cards...am I right?

No. If we win one of our next two, we're in. We own tiebreakers over the Packers, Lions, and Eagles, all 4 win teams that would have to lose at least one more game in order to not win their division. The only team we don't own a tiebreaker over is Dallas, and that's if it is only a 2 way tie between us and them. We would win all ties with 3 or more teams, including the Cowboys.

[RiverDog]

The1986 Hawks stayed home with a 10-6 record and blowout wins over their last 4 opponents. It might have been Knox's best team ever except Krieg entered into a slump leading to Gilbert making some starts. And the tiebreakers that went against them on the final weekend were ridiculous such as KC winning with NO points on offense. That team beat the Giants and pounded the Broncos, the participants in the SB.

So really I have no sympathy if some team gets screwed. Every team controls their destiny on week one and every week they can see what they need to do. Too bad so sad. Don't change a thing...

I'm glad someone else remembers that season. No one wanted to play us and were thanking their lucky stars when we didn't make the playoffs. And I agree, that might have been Knox's best team.

However, it is not a fair comparison to this season's predicament as there were fewer teams in the playoffs back then.

[burrrton]

No.

Gah- you're right. If we lose to the Cards but win our next one (which we'd have to do to end up 11-5 as he asked), we're in.