Allan Lichtman's 13 Keys to the White House

[Aseahawkfan]

I completely agree with you on your take about transgenders. But except in a general sense in how the Democratic Party defines itself such as I mentioned about blue California, it wasn't a major campaign issue. Harris should have been out there hammering on the issues that meant the most to voters, ie the economy, inflation, the southern border, crime, and so on.

My brother-in-law of whom I really like, worked two jobs for most of his adult life, voted for Trump. He agreed with everything I said about Trump's personality, but he hates Democrats and what they stand for. He voted for a philosophy, not a person.

Which is what the Democrats don't admit to. They want to paint all Republicans as Trump supporters and bad people, when I know a ton of Republican voters who are just like your brother-in-law. They voted for the policies overlooking the odious nature of the man.

I think you underestimate how much the transgender stuff pisses people off, especially females who have to deal with this issue far more than we do who cannot openly talk about it due to the cancel culture. Look what happened to liberal darling J.K. Rowling. She was once beloved by the alphabet sexuality community making Dumbledore, one of her major characters, homosexual to show her support of homosexuality. Soon as she questions the transgender movement, she gets labeled a TERF, some sort of Transgender something Radical Feminist.

These issues are bigger than you think they are, Riverdog and kept quiet out of fear of retaliation by that community who goes after people hard trying to cancel them and get them punished.

A lot of issues pissing off Americans that Democrats are pushing are getting pushed back against, often quietly, to avoid the cancel culture effect and getting fired. That's another reason people don't like Dems, the cancel culture push to anyone that disagrees with them. It's getting big pushback right now as people are really getting tired of speaking out about something and get hammered.

Even left wing comedians like Bill Maher and Jon Stewart are pushing back against the cancel culture as it seriously has gone too far the other way. It's not just politeness or pushing back against racists and bigots, it's the reached the point even polite disagreement is viewed with derision and attempted cancellation. Then college campus has really gone nuts running teachers out of their jobs and such. It's gone too far.

[River Dog]

There's a number of issues, subterranean for the lack of a better word, that fly below the radar in which voters have associated Dems with. Crime, for example. Did you see what happened in CA with Proposition 36 that reversed a Democratic initiative from ten years earlier which lessened penalties for crimes like shoplifting and drug-related offenses? Two thirds of voters in blue California approved the measure despite Gov. Newsom and other leading Dems campaigning against it. Although Prop 36 was a state issue, it may be a reflection of voter's attitude nationwide, that people associate Democrats as being soft on crime, and crime was identified as a top 5 issue amongst voters. Harris comes from California and did nothing to counter this perception of Dems being soft on crime.

Another issue that has to have hurt Dems is Biden's multiple attempts at student loan forgiveness. The issue generally splits down party lines, but surveys have shown that a solid plurality of independent voters are against it. It's an insult to middle class people like me who put their kids through college without resorting to loans and reinforces in people's minds that Democrats are free and easy with taxpayer money and will use it to buy votes.

A year or so ago, I-5 and I got into a debate about the overturning of Roe v Wade. My position was that it didn't occur in an election year, that voters have a short memory, and that it wouldn't be a huge issue in the next election. Well, white women, of whom you would think would vote in droves against the R's, voted 53% for Trump.

National exit polls show that 53% of white women voted for an adjudicated rapist whose previous actions in office laid waste to Roe vs. Wade. So much for Democrats tapping into the hidden power of a “silent majority” of women who were thought to be hiding their political views from their husbands. They were in step with white men, 59% of whom voted for the former president.

I'd like to hear I-5 respond to that quote. Harris spent a lot of time and energy talking about Roe v Wade and women's rights, but it just didn't resonate with voters. It also shows how little of an impact that the various lawsuits and trials had on voters if that kind of percentage of women voted for a rapist.

It looks like the R's are going to control both branches of government and with a conservative SCOTUS. The Dems have a lot of soul searching to do. My good friend (and I mean that sincerely) CBob said back in 2016, and I'm paraphrasing, that Trump was the best Democratic nominee that the Republicans ever made. What does that say about the Democrats' failure to beat him?

[Aseahawkfan]

There's a number of issues, subterranean for the lack of a better word, that fly below the radar in which voters have associated Dems with. Crime, for example. Did you see what happened in CA with Proposition 36 that reversed a Democratic initiative from ten years earlier which lessened penalties for crimes like shoplifting and drug-related offenses? Two thirds of voters in blue California approved the measure despite Gov. Newsom and other leading Dems campaigning against it. Although Prop 36 was a state issue, it may be a reflection of voter's attitude nationwide, that people associate Democrats as being soft on crime, and crime was identified as a top 5 issue amongst voters. Harris comes from California and did nothing to counter this perception of Dems being soft on crime.

Another issue that has to have hurt Dems is Biden's multiple attempts at student loan forgiveness. The issue generally splits down party lines, but surveys have shown that a solid plurality of independent voters are against it. It's an insult to middle class people like me who put their kids through college without resorting to loans and reinforces in people's minds that Democrats are free and easy with taxpayer money and will use it to buy votes.

A year or so ago, I-5 and I got into a debate about the overturning of Roe v Wade. My position was that it didn't occur in an election year, that voters have a short memory, and that it wouldn't be a huge issue in the next election. Well, white women, of whom you would think would vote in droves against the R's, voted 53% for Trump.

National exit polls show that 53% of white women voted for an adjudicated rapist whose previous actions in office laid waste to Roe vs. Wade. So much for Democrats tapping into the hidden power of a “silent majority” of women who were thought to be hiding their political views from their husbands. They were in step with white men, 59% of whom voted for the former president.

I'd like to hear I-5 respond to that quote. Harris spent a lot of time and energy talking about Roe v Wade and women's rights, but it just didn't resonate with voters. It also shows how little of an impact that the various lawsuits and trials had on voters if that kind of percentage of women voted for a rapist.

It looks like the R's are going to control both branches of government and with a conservative SCOTUS. The Dems have a lot of soul searching to do. My good friend (and I mean that sincerely) CBob said back in 2016, and I'm paraphrasing, that Trump was the best Democratic nominee that the Republicans ever made. What does that say about the Democrats' failure to beat him?

You already know I told I5 his abortion issue wouldn't be as strong as predicted. I explained why and was proven right. This is not the 1950s where women are denied an abortion nationally. There are very few states that outlawed or severely limited abortion. A bunch of states like Washington State made abortion as easy or easier than previously. It is hard to get people onboard nationally on an issue when the majority of states allow the issue with few restrictions and most did not ban it. Thus leaving a few states to fight alone for women's rights in those states on top of the fact that in many of these ultra-conservative states it's not "men telling women what to do with their bodies", but other men and women both because the ultra-religious church ladies don't believe in it either.

Democrats are soft on crime. Washington State Dems did the same thing with similar types of crime as the California Dems. That's why businesses are moving out of Seattle because shoplifting has become such a huge issue and city Dems doing nothing to counter it. Just letting drug abusers on the streets and letting them steal from local business to fuel their drug use all the under the guise of "racial equality." Sorry, you don't get to commit crimes because of historical treatment. That's ridiculous.

Dems been pushing liberal crazy for a while. We live with it here in Washington State, especially Seattle. It's gone too far. I support equality and I don't want some return to the 50s, but some of this leftist stuff is straight rubbish. So is some of the right stuff too like their excessive focus on immigration and I'm not even sure where to place people like Joe Rogan and RFK Jr. with their whacky anti-vaccine stances, though I would like to see a healthier food environment as when you look at how we allow food to be made in America compared to other nations, it's pretty damn bad.

The parties are sort of re-aligning right now. I guess we'll see where it ends up. I know JD Vance is one of the few Republicans I've seen really cater to working class people. He seems to have real regard for them and want to help working class people have better opportunities in America. I guess that is the poor, Ohio boy in him who lived around all those working class people from Ohio and raised by his grandmother. I should give that Hillbilly Elegy movie a watch I guess. Learn more about this guy.

[River Dog]

You already know I told I5 his abortion issue wouldn't be as strong as predicted. I explained why and was proven right. This is not the 1950s where women are denied an abortion nationally. There are very few states that outlawed or severely limited abortion. A bunch of states like Washington State made abortion as easy or easier than previously. It is hard to get people onboard nationally on an issue when the majority of states allow the issue with few restrictions and most did not ban it. Thus leaving a few states to fight alone for women's rights in those states on top of the fact that in many of these ultra-conservative states it's not "men telling women what to do with their bodies", but other men and women both because the ultra-religious church ladies don't believe in it either.

The SCOTUS decision came down in June of 2022. Had it come down in June of 2024, then maybe it would have had a larger impact. But well over 2 years had elapsed, and the country had moved on from that issue. Harris spent way too much time talking about Roe v Wade and SCOTUS. She should have grabbed the bull by the horns and talked about the issues that mattered most to voters.

Democrats are soft on crime. Washington State Dems did the same thing with similar types of crime as the California Dems. That's why businesses are moving out of Seattle because shoplifting has become such a huge issue and city Dems doing nothing to counter it. Just letting drug abusers on the streets and letting them steal from local business to fuel their drug use all the under the guise of "racial equality." Sorry, you don't get to commit crimes because of historical treatment. That's ridiculous.

You're preaching to the choir. The soft on crime stance has a lot to do with our homeless crisis. Before bleeding heart Democrats de-criminalized possession of a number of hard drugs, prosecuting attorneys were able to steer a defendant into treatment by using the threat of jail time. Now, they just get turned back onto the streets. That likely helps explain why the homeless problem is so much worse in blue states like CA, OR, and WA.

Dems been pushing liberal crazy for a while. We live with it here in Washington State, especially Seattle. It's gone too far. I support equality and I don't want some return to the 50s, but some of this leftist stuff is straight rubbish. So is some of the right stuff too like their excessive focus on immigration and I'm not even sure where to place people like Joe Rogan and RFK Jr. with their whacky anti-vaccine stances, though I would like to see a healthier food environment as when you look at how we allow food to be made in America compared to other nations, it's pretty damn bad.

The parties are sort of re-aligning right now. I guess we'll see where it ends up. I know JD Vance is one of the few Republicans I've seen really cater to working class people. He seems to have real regard for them and want to help working class people have better opportunities in America. I guess that is the poor, Ohio boy in him who lived around all those working class people from Ohio and raised by his grandmother. I should give that Hillbilly Elegy movie a watch I guess. Learn more about this guy.

Yeah, I'm without a party. I do like my representative, Dan Newhouse, one of just 10 Republicans who voted to impeach Trump and, if his lead holds up, just one of two to win re-election.

You're right about the parties sorting themselves out, especially the Democrats. The R's will have to wait until Trump is out of office before they can regroup.

[Aseahawkfan]

Yeah, I'm without a party. I do like my representative, Dan Newhouse, one of just 10 Republicans who voted to impeach Trump and, if his lead holds up, just one of two to win re-election.

You're right about the parties sorting themselves out, especially the Democrats. The R's will have to wait until Trump is out of office before they can regroup.

I never was part of a party. I don't care for the two party system or political parties at this point. We know how things should run. It shouldn't even generate a debate. We have sufficient information to run everything efficiently and effectively using the scientific process with guidance from the principles of our Constitution. These arguments are stupid between parties.

There should be no parties in the United States taking a position of open borders or racist immigration policy. Neither should even be open for discussion. It should be clearly understood immigration is controlled, vetted, and done in an efficient, effective manner where immigrants are not viewed as some enemy group or viewed as some group to be let in because of past mistreatment. It's a stupid debate that shouldn't even exist.

We know what women are. This also should not be a debate. We have male, female, trans female, trans male. All done. Nonbinary is a useless governmental designation that has no medical basis. It should be ignored as stupid, pop culture rubbish.

Drug legality should be based on the level of physical and mental impairment with addictive properties. Drug abusers should be forced into rehab as sending them to general prison absent additional criminal acts is not productive.

I could go on, but I have grown tired of this party system. It has outlived its usefulness. We have much more efficient processes for human management now. We should rely on them. It is excessive reliance on human emotion lacking a rational basis for this inefficient system we're running right now. I hope future generations of humans who have far greater access to information than any human group in history reconfigure these systems as we progress.

The arguments between parties are mostly fabricated rubbish creating unnecessary division when we know how things should run. There should be no Democrat supporting defunding the police or soft on crime stance and Republicans pushing against immigration in a nation of immigrants or any denial of the right to marry as you wish in regards to homosexual marriage.

We know how things should run. We should stop pretending we don't understand how our systems should work. It makes America look stupid and irrational that we are getting played like this for the sole purpose of keeping Americans sufficiently divided as to make no progress on systemic changes that would improve their lives.

[River Dog]

Yeah, the two-party system is broken. We desperately need a viable 3rd party. Neither the D's or the R's come anywhere close to representing what I believe in. That's why I voted for Gary Johnson back in 2016, in the hopes that he'd get some traction. We've had some really bad choices, especially in the past 3 elections.

One of the problems is the winner-take-all electoral college. Most states aren't competitive, so the campaigns focus almost exclusively on the swing states, ie MI, PA, WI, NC, NV, AZ and GA. If they got rid of the winner-take-all method of states determining electors and gave the winner of each individual Congressional district one electoral vote and the winner of the statewide vote the remaining two electors, it would force the candidates to campaign nationwide and craft a message that would appeal to a wider variety of voters. I don't want to see the electoral college completely abolished as it would give the urban and suburban areas too much power. But a tweak like getting rid of winner-take-all would put an end to the swing states. There's a lot more competitive districts than there are competitive states, and they're spread around from coast to coast, all with different priorities and interests.

Even though I'm very distressed about Trump's winning another term, I'm being highly entertained by all the finger pointing and the blame game that the Democrats are playing. It serves them right. Their message is flawed, has been for some time. They've veered way to the left, ran out all of their moderates, but so far, all they can do is complain about Joe Biden's late withdrawal. IMO it wouldn't have made any difference had he dropped out on July 21st or Jan. 21st. Harris was a weak candidate. So far, the party is in complete denial. How in the hell can then NOT beat a rapist, convicted felon, lying POS, highly despicable person of whom the majority of Americans have an unfavorable opinion of? How do they think they'll fare when Trump is finally gone and the R's nominate a candidate with better personal qualities, someone like NIkki Haley? They certainly can't nominate a more dislikable person than Donald Trump.

[I-5]

I'm late but chiming in before I have to run. The keys were correct in my opinion, but they're rendered moot when someone charismatic like Trump (which I gave him credit for as his superpower) was able to get enough people to buy into his rhetoric that the economy sucked. Lichtman's keys didn't factor that kind of disinformation into the equation, but I think he'll have to from now on.

For me, I feel numb that we have to listen to this bag of hot air for another 4 years. I don't know what he's going to do to personally affect me unless he dismantles some financial institutions like the FDIC that would affect us all. My kid goes to school in canada, so he's ok if Trump takes down the Dept of Eduction. He promised a lot of these takedowns, and ending the war in Ukraine 'in one day'. Let's see him to do it and Gaza too. Putin sounds very happy and congratulatory. Shocker.

edit: as for being 'left', Biden seems almost republican to me, and he couldn't have been more different in how he's handling the transfer of power. Pure class from Joe.

[MackStrongIsMyHero]

Yeah, the two-party system is broken. We desperately need a viable 3rd party. Neither the D's or the R's come anywhere close to representing what I believe in. That's why I voted for Gary Johnson back in 2016, in the hopes that he'd get some traction. We've had some really bad choices, especially in the past 3 elections.

One of the problems is the winner-take-all electoral college. Most states aren't competitive, so the campaigns focus almost exclusively on the swing states, ie MI, PA, WI, NC, NV, AZ and GA. If they got rid of the winner-take-all method of states determining electors and gave the winner of each individual Congressional district one electoral vote and the winner of the statewide vote the remaining two electors, it would force the candidates to campaign nationwide and craft a message that would appeal to a wider variety of voters. I don't want to see the electoral college completely abolished as it would give the urban and suburban areas too much power. But a tweak like getting rid of winner-take-all would put an end to the swing states. There's a lot more competitive districts than there are competitive states, and they're spread around from coast to coast, all with different priorities and interests.

Even though I'm very distressed about Trump's winning another term, I'm being highly entertained by all the finger pointing and the blame game that the Democrats are playing. It serves them right. Their message is flawed, has been for some time. They've veered way to the left, ran out all of their moderates, but so far, all they can do is complain about Joe Biden's late withdrawal. IMO it wouldn't have made any difference had he dropped out on July 21st or Jan. 21st. Harris was a weak candidate. So far, the party is in complete denial. How in the hell can then NOT beat a rapist, convicted felon, lying POS, highly despicable person of whom the majority of Americans have an unfavorable opinion of? How do they think they'll fare when Trump is finally gone and the R's nominate a candidate with better personal qualities, someone like NIkki Haley? They certainly can't nominate a more dislikable person than Donald Trump.

Genuinely want to dig into this one. Trump wins the popular vote by what looks to be about 4 million, and Kamala is looking to end up with about 10 million less votes than Biden received in 2020. I know they aren't done counting, but this is significant. There's more to this than:

I'm late but chiming in before I have to run. The keys were correct in my opinion, but they're rendered moot when someone charismatic like Trump (which I gave him credit for as his superpower) was able to get enough people to buy into his rhetoric that the economy sucked. Lichtman's keys didn't factor that kind of disinformation into the equation, but I think he'll have to from now on.

It's not disinformation and rhetoric on the economy when people haven't forgotten how much the last 4 years have cost them, when they don't perceive the economy has gotten somewhat better (it has but Americans can still see their day-to-day is expensive), and they don't have confidence the current administration's VP is going to make it better if elected. And that's just one issue on top of many.

[I-5]

It's not disinformation and rhetoric on the economy when people haven't forgotten how much the last 4 years have cost them, when they don't perceive the economy has gotten somewhat better (it has but Americans can still see their day-to-day is expensive), and they don't have confidence the current administration's VP is going to make it better if elected. And that's just one issue on top of many.

OK I'm all ears. Can you tell me what are the economic markers for you to say 'good' or 'bad' beyond anecdotal? What are the metrix? Trump didnt give any specifics, besides saying Biden destroyed it. What will happen when there are fewer people willing to pick crops because a number of them have been deported, or to clean hotel rooms or work in kitchens? Those hard working jobs are overwhelmingly latino, and likely undocumented. We haven't even discussed tariffs. I'm actually curious to watch him pull all these promises into action and see if flies. Logic tells me it won't at all.

[MackStrongIsMyHero]

OK I'm all ears. Can you tell me what are the economic markers for you to say 'good' or 'bad' beyond anecdotal? What are the metrix? Trump didnt give any specifics, besides saying Biden destroyed it. What will happen when there are fewer people willing to pick crops because a number of them have been deported, or to clean hotel rooms or work in kitchens? Those hard working jobs are overwhelmingly latino, and likely undocumented. We haven't even discussed tariffs. I'm actually curious to watch him pull all these promises into action and see if flies. Logic tells me it won't at all.

Inflation has come down, but prices are still up about 21% compared to pre-Covid. Home and auto loan insurance rates are still around 7%. Homeowners insurance rates increased by 34% from 2017-2023 and then up again 23% from January 2023 to February 2024. Yes, destructive natural events did their part in increasing those, but construction materials and labor all cost more due to inflation. No, Trump didn't spell these things out, but he didn't have to. Like I said, people still see how much it's costing them to live day-to-day. I see it my life every day. I know my household can weather quite a bit, but there's a lot of folks who can't. The numbers can say inflation is down and the job market is up, but how do you override people's daily, real experience? To put it another way, how will it go over to tell someone who is struggling to make ends meet that the economy is fine?

It will remain to be seen how it goes with illegal immigration. They most certainly stated they want to clean out the criminals. I recognize the same thing you do about the jobs illegals perform. I hope they make a way to make that work.

As for tariffs, why did Biden keep most of the Trump tariffs as well as additional tariffs back in May? What is it that they see in these to both keep them going as policy? I haven't attempted to dig into that, but it seems a hard sell to ding one administration for implemented them and not another for maintaining and expanding them.

[River Dog]

I'm late but chiming in before I have to run. The keys were correct in my opinion, but they're rendered moot when someone charismatic like Trump (which I gave him credit for as his superpower) was able to get enough people to buy into his rhetoric that the economy sucked. Lichtman's keys didn't factor that kind of disinformation into the equation, but I think he'll have to from now on.

For me, I feel numb that we have to listen to this bag of hot air for another 4 years. I don't know what he's going to do to personally affect me unless he dismantles some financial institutions like the FDIC that would affect us all. My kid goes to school in canada, so he's ok if Trump takes down the Dept of Eduction. He promised a lot of these takedowns, and ending the war in Ukraine 'in one day'. Let's see him to do it and Gaza too. Putin sounds very happy and congratulatory. Shocker.

edit: as for being 'left', Biden seems almost republican to me, and he couldn't have been more different in how he's handling the transfer of power. Pure class from Joe.

Glad to see you back, I-5.

I don't have time to sift through this thread to see exactly what was said, but I do think that I noted that this election was much different than past elections in that you had a former POTUS running as a challenger, which hasn't happened since 1912 (Teddy Roosevelt), and an incumbent POTUS which dropped out of the race, which hasn't happened since 1968 (Lynden Johnson). That combination has never happened in American political history. IMO that makes many of Lichtman's 13 keys invalid. This was a very unique election, and past precedent is not nearly as applicable.

Some of this stuff Trump claims he's going to do, like round up and deport 20 million illegal aliens (which in itself is a gross overestimation), is just him talking out of his a$$. There's no way we have the resources to conduct such an operation. He may be able to go after illegals who have committed a crime, something that I would be in favor of, but going after those who have overstayed their visa, which represents the majority of undocumented aliens, is absurd and not viable.

We'll see how much of these outrageous things Trump actually does, if he was just saying stuff to get elected or if he will follow through.

As far as Lichtman goes, he admitted that he was wrong, but he couldn't leave it at that. He had to qualify his admission by noting that nearly every other forecaster got it wrong, too. Trying to save face.

[I-5]

I found Lichtman forthright; he could have just gone silentl but he said he got it wrong and invited viewers to chime in. I didn’t see the comment about other predictions, but I think Nate Silver was leaning towards Trump according to his polls. If the dema learn anything from this, I think it’s to be better story tellers and story sellers. Trump mastered both, nasty as he is. That’s the new game, so you must play it better. Facts aren’t that important in the big picture compared to feelings. Feelings won.

[River Dog]

OK I'm all ears. Can you tell me what are the economic markers for you to say 'good' or 'bad' beyond anecdotal? What are the metrix? Trump didnt give any specifics, besides saying Biden destroyed it. What will happen when there are fewer people willing to pick crops because a number of them have been deported, or to clean hotel rooms or work in kitchens? Those hard working jobs are overwhelmingly latino, and likely undocumented. We haven't even discussed tariffs. I'm actually curious to watch him pull all these promises into action and see if flies. Logic tells me it won't at all.

Inflation has come down, but prices are still up about 21% compared to pre-Covid. Home and auto loan insurance rates are still around 7%. Homeowners insurance rates increased by 34% from 2017-2023 and then up again 23% from January 2023 to February 2024. Yes, destructive natural events did their part in increasing those, but construction materials and labor all cost more due to inflation. No, Trump didn't spell these things out, but he didn't have to. Like I said, people still see how much it's costing them to live day-to-day. I see it my life every day. I know my household can weather quite a bit, but there's a lot of folks who can't. The numbers can say inflation is down and the job market is up, but how do you override people's daily, real experience? To put it another way, how will it go over to tell someone who is struggling to make ends meet that the economy is fine?

It will remain to be seen how it goes with illegal immigration. They most certainly stated they want to clean out the criminals. I recognize the same thing you do about the jobs illegals perform. I hope they make a way to make that work.

As for tariffs, why did Biden keep most of the Trump tariffs as well as additional tariffs back in May? What is it that they see in these to both keep them going as policy? I haven't attempted to dig into that, but it seems a hard sell to ding one administration for implemented them and not another for maintaining and expanding them.

Good points, Mack, and I do think many of those issues you noted were paramount in the election.

But IMO Biden does not bear responsibility for the rise in prices. They were caused by the pandemic as the entire economy was turned upside down, supply chains interrupted, businesses closing. According to one estimate, 60% of all the restaurants that closed in the US due to Covid never re-opened. There was a huge shift in the labor force, the Great Resignation. People's shopping habits changed. The government handed out nearly a trillion dollars in Covid payments, which drove up inflation. You can't hang that on Biden. It doesn't straighten itself out overnight. Same with the surge in immigrants. It was pent up demand from the Covid shutdown that caused such a rise in immigration. Plus, those folks were suffering economically due to the pandemic in their home countries worse than we were here.

As far as tariffs goes, if Trump follows through on his tariffs on China, he'll be cutting off his nose to spite his face. He'll completely disrupt the economy, create a huge imbalance between supply and demand on a whole bunch of goods, and drive-up inflation. I can't believe that he'd be so stupid.

[River Dog]

I found Lichtman forthright; he could have just gone silentl but he said he got it wrong and invited viewers to chime in. I didn’t see the comment about other predictions, but I think Nate Silver was leaning towards Trump according to his polls. If the dema learn anything from this, I think it’s to be better story tellers and story sellers. Trump mastered both, nasty as he is. That’s the new game, so you must play it better. Facts aren’t that important in the big picture compared to feelings. Feelings won.

If Lichtman hadn't qualified his admission, then I would agree with you. But he couldn't stand to say that he was wrong and leave it at that. It's like saying it was OK that he was wrong because a bunch of others were wrong, too.

Polling has changed over the past 30-50 years. It used to be that you could call a home, and the person would always answer it and answer questions honestly. Same with door-to-door questionnaires. I can remember my parents inviting the Fuller Brush Man, a salesman, into the living room and serving him coffee. That all started to change in the 70's, with religious zealots canvasing neighborhoods looking for members, then later in the 80's and 90's with the telemarketing industry and unsolicited phone calls. The move to mobile phones further complicated polling. Nowadays, I leave my phone on do-not-disturb except for favorite contacts. If someone comes to my door, I won't spend 10 seconds with them if it's not some sort of emergency. If someone tries to stop me on the street, I just keep on walking. I don't think I'm alone.

And there may be a bias in the types of people who respond to surveys. I have no way of verifying it, but I get the feeling that conservatives are much less likely to answer a pollster's questions than a liberal. Trump in particular has a lot of closet supporters, people who for one reason or another won't admit to voting for him.

Anyhow, it's a topic deserving of its own thread.

[Aseahawkfan]

I'm late but chiming in before I have to run. The keys were correct in my opinion, but they're rendered moot when someone charismatic like Trump (which I gave him credit for as his superpower) was able to get enough people to buy into his rhetoric that the economy sucked. Lichtman's keys didn't factor that kind of disinformation into the equation, but I think he'll have to from now on.

For me, I feel numb that we have to listen to this bag of hot air for another 4 years. I don't know what he's going to do to personally affect me unless he dismantles some financial institutions like the FDIC that would affect us all. My kid goes to school in canada, so he's ok if Trump takes down the Dept of Eduction. He promised a lot of these takedowns, and ending the war in Ukraine 'in one day'. Let's see him to do it and Gaza too. Putin sounds very happy and congratulatory. Shocker.

edit: as for being 'left', Biden seems almost republican to me, and he couldn't have been more different in how he's handling the transfer of power. Pure class from Joe.

I do give Joe and Kamala their credit for ensuring the peaceful transition of power and making it a point to restore some election integrity to the process. I do not think it is healthy at all to continue this path of accusing the opponent of fraud if you lose that started way back during the Bush-Gore election and reached the height of extreme when Trump lost in 2020. You can't keep doing that type of thing and not have it escalate to stupid levels like it did.

Biden and Kamala both toned that down this time around, which I think was good for the nation.

[Aseahawkfan]

Yeah, the two-party system is broken. We desperately need a viable 3rd party. Neither the D's or the R's come anywhere close to representing what I believe in. That's why I voted for Gary Johnson back in 2016, in the hopes that he'd get some traction. We've had some really bad choices, especially in the past 3 elections.

One of the problems is the winner-take-all electoral college. Most states aren't competitive, so the campaigns focus almost exclusively on the swing states, ie MI, PA, WI, NC, NV, AZ and GA. If they got rid of the winner-take-all method of states determining electors and gave the winner of each individual Congressional district one electoral vote and the winner of the statewide vote the remaining two electors, it would force the candidates to campaign nationwide and craft a message that would appeal to a wider variety of voters. I don't want to see the electoral college completely abolished as it would give the urban and suburban areas too much power. But a tweak like getting rid of winner-take-all would put an end to the swing states. There's a lot more competitive districts than there are competitive states, and they're spread around from coast to coast, all with different priorities and interests.

Even though I'm very distressed about Trump's winning another term, I'm being highly entertained by all the finger pointing and the blame game that the Democrats are playing. It serves them right. Their message is flawed, has been for some time. They've veered way to the left, ran out all of their moderates, but so far, all they can do is complain about Joe Biden's late withdrawal. IMO it wouldn't have made any difference had he dropped out on July 21st or Jan. 21st. Harris was a weak candidate. So far, the party is in complete denial. How in the hell can then NOT beat a rapist, convicted felon, lying POS, highly despicable person of whom the majority of Americans have an unfavorable opinion of? How do they think they'll fare when Trump is finally gone and the R's nominate a candidate with better personal qualities, someone like NIkki Haley? They certainly can't nominate a more dislikable person than Donald Trump.

You can call me on it later, but I don't expect any problems with Trump in a second term. I did not have a problem in his first term until the pandemic occurred. The only real piece of legislation Trump passed wielding all that Republican power was the tax cuts. I think they'll extend the tax cuts and not much else as there isn't much else that the Republicans have a consensus on.

Trump was built into a supervillain that he isn't and never was. It is a stupid thing humans do building men into more than they are, but that is what humans do.

I seem to be one of the few on this board that followed Trump's actions and policies and didn't just listen to his rambling rhetoric carefully culled to make him look like some terrible person. His policies were for the most part moderate Republican policies focused on tax cuts and pro-business anti-regulation. He was more supportive of oil and gas than Democrats. He was surprisingly anti-war and did not want any conflicts started or escalated while he was in office. He actually doesn't want to see soldiers sent to foreign lands to die. He's said that again and again and stuck by it. He'll do some token immigration policy to appease that group, but likely nothing extreme.

Trump will try to use his salesman powers to negotiate a stop to both wars and not escalate any wars while he is in office. Trump doesn't like war, never really has.

Trump will say a lot of stupid things that the liberal media will dwell on and exaggerate as Democrats complain their lives are bad for four years like Republicans did under Biden even when their lives were fine under Biden.

There will be no project 2025 unless it was an already existing policy that the Democrats pretend is something new.

Trump is not Hitler, never was, and never will be.

Trump may even do some liberal policies like prison reform or helping some disenfranchised communities with policies brought to him by people like Kim Kardashian as he did last time.

Trump is happy he won a second term and gets to become a famous historical figure. It fuels his huge, narcissistic ego.

I expect a very relaxed, happy Trump who will want to make people like him again as all he wanted was to be president for two terms like everyone else because he can't stand to not be as good as everyone else. Losing to Biden is what drove Trump nuts, not some desire to execute some Machiavellian coup or take over the United States. His big ego couldn't stand losing to "Sleepy Joe Biden." Now he's happy he won and he'll be in a good mood the next four years. No stress to run again. Just make people like him again and get his tax cuts extended, brag a lot, make friends again, and run a smooth four year term.

I'm happy to take anyone insults if I should be proven wrong. I've followed Trump since I was 16 or 17 years old and read his Art of the Deal. The man isn't even close to some tyrannical or Hitler-like figure. He's an old school New Yorker from a rich family who decided to retire to president because why not. He's done all he ever wanted to do. Made billions of dollars, built his name into a worldwide brand, been on TV for 14 years on his own show and 50 years as a New York billionaire guy, married three models, slept with a ton of beautiful women, raised good, successful children, and now he gets to be president of the United States.

People like to call Trump some kind of failure, but if he is I'd sure like to fail like him...all the way to a life men only dream of and go out as president of the United States. Love Trump or Hate him, he's lived a hell of a life...an Only in America life.

There are few men like Trump even in a country that produces so many unique people like America. I can't help but admire his tenacity and ability to overcome his enemies and obstacles. Some people tried to kill Trump. Half the nation hated him. The Democrats made him into the worst archvillain in political history even though his worst crimes are paying off pornstars and playboy models to not talk about their relationships with him or cheating on his taxes like so many in both parties do.

Americans have spoken. They wanted him back in office. They want Republicans in control because the left was pushing some really bad policy.

[River Dog]

edit: as for being 'left', Biden seems almost republican to me, and he couldn't have been more different in how he's handling the transfer of power. Pure class from Joe.

I do give Joe and Kamala their credit for ensuring the peaceful transition of power and making it a point to restore some election integrity to the process. I do not think it is healthy at all to continue this path of accusing the opponent of fraud if you lose that started way back during the Bush-Gore election and reached the height of extreme when Trump lost in 2020. You can't keep doing that type of thing and not have it escalate to stupid levels like it did.

Biden and Kamala both toned that down this time around, which I think was good for the nation.

Up until his presidency, Joe Biden was considered a moderate Dem. When he was in the Senate, 40% of the bills he introduced were co-sponsored by a Republican. Most vote trackers placed him in the middle of the road of the Democratic Party. He voted for the Iraq War, voted for a balanced budget amendment. He was pushed to the left by the party liberals, who are the dominant force in today's Democratic Party.

I agree wholeheartedly that Biden and Harris handled defeat with class. I'm glad that they're not trying to blame their loss on events beyond their control, ie Russian interference, rigged voting machines, SCOTUS, et al.

[Aseahawkfan]

Up until his presidency, Joe Biden was considered a moderate Dem. When he was in the Senate, 40% of the bills he introduced were co-sponsored by a Republican. Most vote trackers placed him in the middle of the road of the Democratic Party. He voted for the Iraq War, voted for a balanced budget amendment. He was pushed to the left by the party liberals, who are the dominant force in today's Democratic Party.

I agree wholeheartedly that Biden and Harris handled defeat with class. I'm glad that they're not trying to blame their loss on events beyond their control, ie Russian interference, rigged voting machines, SCOTUS, et al.

Personally, I think Biden is a good dude. HIs time in office did not bother me much at all. He was a moderate Dem who did what a president does representing the tentpole of the Democratic Party, which is why he seemed to push more left when I think his personal belief is still moderate left. He did his time. He didn't complain. He was far too old to handle the office as well as he might when younger, but he was pressed into service during a very difficult pandemic Trump was handling poorly.

Trump is fine during a time of normal operation, but his lack of experience, argumentative nature, and excessive concern for "appearances" did not make him good at handling a pandemic even though he did get the vaccine program started and happily signed all the COVID relief checks that helped drive inflation.

Joe was better equipped to navigate the pandemic. American people knew it and put him in charge for that period.

We'll see if the American are wise in putting Trump back in office with Republican power to affect policy.

[River Dog]

You can call me on it later, but I don't expect any problems with Trump in a second term. I did not have a problem in his first term until the pandemic occurred. The only real piece of legislation Trump passed wielding all that Republican power was the tax cuts. I think they'll extend the tax cuts and not much else as there isn't much else that the Republicans have a consensus on.

Trump was built into a supervillain that he isn't and never was. It is a stupid thing humans do building men into more than they are, but that is what humans do.

I seem to be one of the few on this board that followed Trump's actions and policies and didn't just listen to his rambling rhetoric carefully culled to make him look like some terrible person. His policies were for the most part moderate Republican policies focused on tax cuts and pro-business anti-regulation. He was more supportive of oil and gas than Democrats. He was surprisingly anti-war and did not want any conflicts started or escalated while he was in office. He actually doesn't want to see soldiers sent to foreign lands to die. He's said that again and again and stuck by it. He'll do some token immigration policy to appease that group, but likely nothing extreme.

Trump will try to use his salesman powers to negotiate a stop to both wars and not escalate any wars while he is in office. Trump doesn't like war, never really has.

Trump will say a lot of stupid things that the liberal media will dwell on and exaggerate as Democrats complain their lives are bad for four years like Republicans did under Biden even when their lives were fine under Biden.

There will be no project 2025 unless it was an already existing policy that the Democrats pretend is something new.

Trump is not Hitler, never was, and never will be.

Trump may even do some liberal policies like prison reform or helping some disenfranchised communities with policies brought to him by people like Kim Kardashian as he did last time.

Trump is happy he won a second term and gets to become a famous historical figure. It fuels his huge, narcissistic ego.

I expect a very relaxed, happy Trump who will want to make people like him again as all he wanted was to be president for two terms like everyone else because he can't stand to not be as good as everyone else. Losing to Biden is what drove Trump nuts, not some desire to execute some Machiavellian coup or take over the United States. His big ego couldn't stand losing to "Sleepy Joe Biden." Now he's happy he won and he'll be in a good mood the next four years. No stress to run again. Just make people like him again and get his tax cuts extended, brag a lot, make friends again, and run a smooth four year term.

I'm happy to take anyone insults if I should be proven wrong. I've followed Trump since I was 16 or 17 years old and read his Art of the Deal. The man isn't even close to some tyrannical or Hitler-like figure. He's an old school New Yorker from a rich family who decided to retire to president because why not. He's done all he ever wanted to do. Made billions of dollars, built his name into a worldwide brand, been on TV for 14 years on his own show and 50 years as a New York billionaire guy, married three models, slept with a ton of beautiful women, raised good, successful children, and now he gets to be president of the United States.

People like to call Trump some kind of failure, but if he is I'd sure like to fail like him...all the way to a life men only dream of and go out as president of the United States. Love Trump or Hate him, he's lived a hell of a life...an Only in America life.

There are few men like Trump even in a country that produces so many unique people like America. I can't help but admire his tenacity and ability to overcome his enemies and obstacles. Some people tried to kill Trump. Half the nation hated him. The Democrats made him into the worst archvillain in political history even though his worst crimes are paying off pornstars and playboy models to not talk about their relationships with him or cheating on his taxes like so many in both parties do.

Americans have spoken. They wanted him back in office. They want Republicans in control because the left was pushing some really bad policy.

I'm not sure how relevant his first 4 years are. He wasn't a lame duck then, had to worry about getting re-elected. He was up against a Dem majority in the House the last two years of his presidency.

We'll see how it goes. One of the things he said he's going to do is give RFK Jr. a major role as a health advisor. That's all we need, is an anti vaxxer conspiracy nut in a position of authority.

I'm not worried about Trump's actual policy initiatives, like threats to abolish the DOE, as much as I am the psychological effect he can have on his followers. He's unpredictable. What's most concerning is that a lot of our military men, generals like Jim Mattis, Mark Milley, and John Kelly, people who served for him, claim that he's unfit, that he's a fascist. In all my life, I've never heard a single general comment about a POTUS they had served. There were people from his own staff who refused to give him security briefings because they'd find them tossed into the waste basket. That's the type of stuff I worry about.

[Aseahawkfan]

I'm not sure how relevant his first 4 years are. He wasn't a lame duck then, had to worry about getting re-elected. He was up against a Dem majority in the House the last two years of his presidency.

We'll see how it goes. One of the things he said he's going to do is give RFK Jr. a major role as a health advisor. That's all we need, is an anti vaxxer conspiracy nut in a position of authority.

I'm not worried about Trump's actual policy initiatives, like threats to abolish the DOE, as much as I am the psychological effect he can have on his followers. He's unpredictable. What's most concerning is that a lot of our military men, generals like Jim Mattis, Mark Milley, and John Kelly, people who served for him, claim that he's unfit, that he's a fascist. In all my life, I've never heard a single general comment about a POTUS they had served. There were people from his own staff who refused to give him security briefings because they'd find them tossed into the waste basket. That's the type of stuff I worry about.

I don't know how much of that is fabricated or real. Bob Woodward claims he got the quotes from the horse's mouth, but Woodward is a bonafide Trump hater who did his best to take Trump down. I know Mattis doesn't like him any longer, but Mattis is also a warhawk and disagreed with Trump's anti-war stance on policy as he wanted to pursue a more aggressive policy. Mark Milley did not like being used for Trump's photo op I know for sure. I haven't heard Mark Milley say much personally, but Woodward claims he said he's worried for his life which I doubt myself, but I guess we'll see. Kelly I don't know much about other than he was willing to serve Trump until they disagreed. It seems to me that so many of Trump's critics were fine working with him until they disagreed on something, then they hopped on the hate Trump bandwagon. That alone shows where their bias comes from. You're ok serving the guy who hasn't changed from the time he ran until he disagrees with you? Why didn't they see the problem while he was running?

RFK Jr. anti-vaccine stance is stupid. If he does improve some of the food manufacturing processes to exclude some of this junk they put in our food, that will be better for us. I was watching some video claiming we allow 4000 ingredients above and beyond the actual food itself to go into food manufacturing versus Europe 1000 ingredients. I know Europe and Australia both have much more stringent laws as to what can be put into food. I'd like to clean up our food manufacturing some as they go a little crazy stuffing our food with junk that shouldn't be there. If he cleans some of that up, maybe it helps some. I don't think many will support his anti-vaccine stance as vaccines have clearly improved our lives.

Nice thing about government that seems to get overlooked when both parties are pretending they both have tyrannical power is we have lots of checks and balances. I literally had to listen to Republican friends talking about Biden as some tyrannical figure while at the same time being in cognitive decline and unable to speak clearly because both parties tend to exaggerate in the extreme to make political figures seem worse than they are.

For someone as rational as I am, I don't accept the stupid emotional talk. I want to see what's going on first and then determine my viewpoint. Not have it fed to me by the political media as too many do. What did Trump or Biden really do? I make sure to stay abreast of that, which is why I don't have a huge problem with either.

My main problem with Trump was always how he speaks. Part of the job of president is to be the face and voice of America. I don't want an American president who talks about people he doesn't like like Trump does. It's impolite, insulting, and vulgar. That was enough for me to not want him as president.

As far as Trump's policies went, didn't really have much of a problem with them. They were pretty center right policies. I'll keep looking at what Trump does versus having the political media spoon feed me the villain narrative while the Democrats pretend their side of the political media tells the truth when they don't, even while they eat that spoon fed villain crap up just like Republicans do about them and their politicians.

I really am far too smart to fall for that trash, not pretend smart, but high IQ, will read the actual policy first, and then decide what I think of it smart. That's how I think Americans should be versus what they are eating up that spoon fed media trash. I still can't stand Fox News and MSNBC. I blame people like Jon Stewart and Tucker Carlson for turning the media into a divisive joke they use to get ratings and make money at the expense of the American people. Though at least Jon Stewarts seems like a genuinely decent human being who wants to help people who need it versus Tucker Carlson who just seems like a jackass.

Let's go talk about something else. We have a few months until the poor Democrats have to see Trump in the White House again.

[I-5]

It will remain to be seen how it goes with illegal immigration. They most certainly stated they want to clean out the criminals. I recognize the same thing you do about the jobs illegals perform. I hope they make a way to make that work.

Wait…so do you want undocumented (not ‘illegals’) deported, or was that just red meat rhetoric to feed to his base? You actually support his ‘they are poisoning the blood of our country’ line he kept repeating over and over, right? I hope you are, since you voted for him. I want to see him actually try to execute these outlandish and foolish promises. Ending the war in Ukraine in 1 day. Shutting down the Dept of Education. The flat tax. And the big one, his health plan that is 8 years in the making. Let’s see these policies enacted. Or at least try. If not, then he was just BS’ing his base.

[River Dog]

It will remain to be seen how it goes with illegal immigration. They most certainly stated they want to clean out the criminals. I recognize the same thing you do about the jobs illegals perform. I hope they make a way to make that work.

Wait…so do you want undocumented (not ‘illegals’) deported, or was that just red meat rhetoric to feed to his base? You actually support his ‘they are poisoning the blood of our country’ line he kept repeating over and over, right? I hope you are, since you voted for him. I want to see him actually try to execute these outlandish and foolish promises. Ending the war in Ukraine in 1 day. Shutting down the Dept of Education. The flat tax. And the big one, his health plan that is 8 years in the making. Let’s see these policies enacted. Or at least try. If not, then he was just BS’ing his base.

I don't know who that quote is attributed to, but I'll assume it was me.

That was the most hideous and ignorant line, ie immigrants poisoning our blood, that Trump or any other major politician ever said. Our country was built on immigrants. It sounds like something out of Nazi Germany, that they wanted pure, blond-haired, blue-eyed Aryans to advance their race.

If we examined everything a candidate ever said or did and used it as a litmus test, there wouldn't be anyone left to vote for. People voted for or against Trump for various reasons. We should not assume that because a person voted for him, or any other candidate as far as that goes, that they believe in everything he/she ever said or did. From what I can tell, the reason most people I know who voted for Trump, it was a choice between the lesser of two evils.

[I-5]

Riv it wasn’t you. I was replying to Mack.

And as for litmus test, nothing that came out of any other candidates’ mouth is even in the same universe as that piece of hate language. There is nothing comparable. ‘Poisoning the blood’ is straight out of Goebbels. As if the US has a race. And he didn’t accidentally say it, he’s repeated it.

[MackStrongIsMyHero]

I-5,

You’ve got me figured out along with 74 million other people. Thanks for the lecture.

[River Dog]

Riv it wasn’t you. I was replying to Mack.

And as for litmus test, nothing that came out of any other candidates’ mouth is even in the same universe as that piece of hate language. There is nothing comparable. ‘Poisoning the blood’ is straight out of Goebbels. As if the US has a race. And he didn’t accidentally say it, he’s repeated it.

I agree, and it's crap like that which has caused me to be so anti Trump. He's not just talking about illegal aliens when he made that remark. He's painting all immigrants, including his current wife, with the same brush stroke. He's Demonized immigrants, stoked an anti-immigrant sentiment amongst a lot of people for purely political reasons.

But that's just me. Many of those who voted for Trump, such as my brother-in-law who married a native Thai, brought her to this country, and whose son also married a native Thai, openly admit that they don't like Trump's personality. But he voted for a party or philosophy more than he did leadership qualities of the two nominees. I don't agree with that manner of voting for POTUS, at least not in the case of Donald Trump, but I can understand where they're coming from. The Democrats basic philosophy and/or candidates are unacceptable to a majority of voters.

[I-5]

I-5,

You’ve got me figured out along with 74 million other people. Thanks for the lecture.

That’s the problem. I don’t have you figured out. He made ‘illegals’ (a more dehumanizing way to say undocumented) such a centrepiece of his campaign. Is it your belief that’s right about ‘they’re poisoning our blood’ and in favor of the largest deportation this country has ever seen as per his promise? I wasn’t lecturing, I was asking.

[I-5]

But that's just me. Many of those who voted for Trump, such as my brother-in-law who married a native Thai, brought her to this country, and whose son also married a native Thai, openly admit that they don't like Trump's personality. But he voted for a party or philosophy more than he did leadership qualities of the two nominees. I don't agree with that manner of voting for POTUS, at least not in the case of Donald Trump, but I can understand where they're coming from. The Democrats basic philosophy and/or candidates are unacceptable to a majority of voters.

I can understand voting for policy, but when a candidate goes against everything you were taught about how to be a human being, to be tolerant of those who may be different, to treat others the way you want to be treated, and seen this kind of rhetoric in history before from leaders who ended up doing some of the worst things imaginable, it’s mind boggling to me. Ironically, my mom, who taught us these qualities to strive for, also voted for him. It really makes you question what really matters. My sister is disgusted to the point of cancelling thanksgiving dinner this year.

[River Dog]

But that's just me. Many of those who voted for Trump, such as my brother-in-law who married a native Thai, brought her to this country, and whose son also married a native Thai, openly admit that they don't like Trump's personality. But he voted for a party or philosophy more than he did leadership qualities of the two nominees. I don't agree with that manner of voting for POTUS, at least not in the case of Donald Trump, but I can understand where they're coming from. The Democrats basic philosophy and/or candidates are unacceptable to a majority of voters.

I can understand voting for policy, but when a candidate goes against everything you were taught about how to be a human being, to be tolerant of those who may be different, to treat others the way you want to be treated, and seen this kind of rhetoric in history before from leaders who ended up doing some of the worst things imaginable, it’s mind boggling to me. Ironically, my mom, who taught us these qualities to strive for, also voted for him. It really makes you question what really matters. My sister is disgusted to the point of cancelling thanksgiving dinner this year.

You're preaching to the choir. My brother and only sibling married an Ethiopian and has two sons, ie my nephews, whom I love dearly and that are mixed race, so when Trump started questioning Harris's mixed-race ethnicity, essentially making fun of her, it hit home. I'll never vote for that POS no matter what the consequences.

But we have to accept that not everyone has the same priorities or are subject to the same sensitivities as we are. That's one of the problems with the way our society has become, that politics, who you voted for, makes a difference in how a person appraises us. It shouldn't. That's one of the reasons why I seldom if ever talk politics around anyone but close friends/family or in a relatively anonymous forum like this one.

[Aseahawkfan]

I agree, and it's crap like that which has caused me to be so anti Trump. He's not just talking about illegal aliens when he made that remark. He's painting all immigrants, including his current wife, with the same brush stroke. He's Demonized immigrants, stoked an anti-immigrant sentiment amongst a lot of people for purely political reasons.

But that's just me. Many of those who voted for Trump, such as my brother-in-law who married a native Thai, brought her to this country, and whose son also married a native Thai, openly admit that they don't like Trump's personality. But he voted for a party or philosophy more than he did leadership qualities of the two nominees. I don't agree with that manner of voting for POTUS, at least not in the case of Donald Trump, but I can understand where they're coming from. The Democrats basic philosophy and/or candidates are unacceptable to a majority of voters.

Trump tapped into this, but it's been there for a long time. I guess you don't know about it because you don't pay attention much to politics that aren't mainstream news.

I knew a Libertarian I chatted with often around 2010 to 2011, before Trump was even running or a blip on the radar. He was talking about immigrants as a real problem. The anti-immigrant sentiment was a big deal in our border states for a long, long time. He was advocating shooting immigrants coming across the border illegally as invaders. You see this sentiment with the Minute Men movements in border states.

You also seem to ignore how long Ann Coulter has been making her money and reputation off the anti-immigrant movement long before Trump arrived.

This illegal immigration issue has been mishandled by both parties, allowed to grow into a serious problem through argument and inaction, and caused a very large up swell of anti-immigrant sentiment that Trump was able to tap into, but did not cause. Part of Trump's strategy was tapping into all these disaffected people who had issues that weren't being addressed by the current political parties. Even the Republicans were not seriously addressing immigration issues even when so many illegals were funneling into the nation, often driven by bad circumstances in their home nations and bringing some of the cause of circumstances with them like cartel drugs and general criminality.

The anti-immigrant sentiment was present and growing. Trump's rise to power has the Libertarian arm of the Republican Party written all over it. They knew Ron Paul couldn't get it done and rise to power, Republicans would never let Ron Paul lead them or his son Rand Paul. Mainstrean Republicans would never go all in on the Libertarian movement. Along comes Trump tapping into the Libertarian Party movement and their anti-immigrant views, their anti-war views, and American freedom for Americans. He drew them in ready to rumble into the MAGA.

The more moderate Libertarians may have stayed away from Trump, but some of their radicals joined up with Trump even though he will do nothing to help them. His words are just salesman rhetoric he will not fulfill, which is why Ann Coulter turned on him once she saw he wasn't really going to push the anti-immigrant crap she was recommending.

That's been there a while. Fortunately for immigrants Trump isn't really the guy who will go after them the way the anti-immigrant movement wants. If some worse person taps into that, could be a problem.

[Aseahawkfan]

I can understand voting for policy, but when a candidate goes against everything you were taught about how to be a human being, to be tolerant of those who may be different, to treat others the way you want to be treated, and seen this kind of rhetoric in history before from leaders who ended up doing some of the worst things imaginable, it’s mind boggling to me. Ironically, my mom, who taught us these qualities to strive for, also voted for him. It really makes you question what really matters. My sister is disgusted to the point of cancelling thanksgiving dinner this year.

This is more of a problem of the Democrats selling out the Trump villain political strategy. They sold it so hard that they caused rifts between families, friends, and people that should never have happened.

They ignored all Trump's talk at rallies where his other talking points about economics and other policies were what his voters were more concerned with and focused solely on his anti-immigrant rhetoric. Democrats by ignoring the full Trump message had no answer to Republicans or swing voters who were listening to the economic message Trump was sending and the international policy message. I work with Muslims who would rather have Trump in office because they feel he is more likely to make peace between the current warring parties whether he is capable of that or not, we shall see.

But this trash division in families is pretty terrible. I know more than a few friends who don't walk to other family members due to supporting Trump because Democrats sold Trump so hard as the villain, they view their family members as supporting all the bad stuff the Democrats pushed without stepping back and looking at what they were really interested in: the economics and populist message Trump sold.

I have several friends from mixed homes who married immigrants themselves. They have no hate for immigrants as they married and had children with them, but they also don't like the Democrats for so much other stuff like the soft on crime stance, defunding the police, and the laundry list of issues the Democrats are pushing which their own party ignores and pretends don't matter, when those issues very much do matter.

[Aseahawkfan]

That’s the problem. I don’t have you figured out. He made ‘illegals’ (a more dehumanizing way to say undocumented) such a centrepiece of his campaign. Is it your belief that’s right about ‘they’re poisoning our blood’ and in favor of the largest deportation this country has ever seen as per his promise? I wasn’t lecturing, I was asking.

Since you're asking Mack perplexing questions, then maybe you or the other Democrats and even Riverdog can explain the folllowing: When Trump is saying something negative like this "poisoning the blood of our people" or saying he's going to prosecute his political enemies he's telling the truth, but when Trump's talking about "making the economy great" or creating more jobs he's lying? As in everything Trump says that is negative is Trump telling the truth, but every positive thing Trump says is just a lie.

Why exactly do you, so many other Democrats, and Trump haters like Riverdog suddenly believe Trump when he's saying some negative rhetoric and call him a total liar when he's saying some positive rhetoric?



All I know for certain is the Democrats better have been right about all the rubbish they were pushing with Project 2025, Trump as Hitler, and all the other trash they pushed or they are going to look like the bigger idiots and liars than Trump if all Trump does is extend his tax cuts, do some token immigration reform and continue to build his stupid wall that don't work even Democrats were trying to use for political leverage, and not do much for four years.

All I see right now is Democrats experiencing PTSD because their own party built up Donald Trump as the ultimate, worst American villain of all time and they lost to him. Democrats crying over it, hating their neighbors, hating each other, blaming each other, crying on national television, pretending their lives are suddenly going to be terrible all because of one man their own party built up into a supervillain that they lost to and not just lost a little bit, but a massive loss. They can't even use their tired excuse of winning the popular vote as they cry about getting rid of the electoral college, and if the Republicans win the House, then they win it all. The ultimate Democratic supervillain will have it all red in Congress.

Perfect opportunity to implement all his villain, Machiavellian plans to make the Democrats look like their villain strategy was right and America is going to be destroyed in four years by Donald J. Trump.

You had better be right or you will look even more ridiculous than you do now. I'm still surprised a normally rational person like Riverdog has bought into this crap, but in the new few years we'll see how it goes. If Trump does nothing but extend his tax cuts and little else of substance, then Democrats will lose more credibility and people winding themselves up for nothing will have spent four years twisting their guts into ulcers and hating their family for nothing. An absolute waste of stress and energy.

But maybe the Democratic Party will at least reassess some of their issues and actually take some points of view that are better for the nation along with their usual middle and working class populist message.

[I-5]

I don’t see what is perplexing about asking an extremely simple and direct question; are you for the mass deportation that Trump promised ad nauseum? Yes or no?

As for Trump’s promise to make the economy great, I said I’m all ears. What he’s promised sounds suspect at best. Case in point, he keeps repeating inaccurate statements about what a tariff is, and when corrected by someone who knows, he doubles down…lol. Do I want the economy to perform? You better believe I do. I just don’t see any ideas from him that I believe in. Most of the people who voted for his tax policies aren’t even close to being in the tax bracket that will benefit. But it doesn’t matter since he got them to focus on gas and eggs prices, which ironically is not that bad. He’s a master story teller, for real.

[River Dog]

I don’t see what is perplexing about asking an extremely simple and direct question; are you for the mass deportation that Trump promised ad nauseum? Yes or no?

As for Trump’s promise to make the economy great, I said I’m all ears. What he’s promised sounds suspect at best. Case in point, he keeps repeating inaccurate statements about what a tariff is, and when corrected by someone who knows, he doubles down…lol. Do I want the economy to perform? You better believe I do. I just don’t see any ideas from him that I believe in. Most of the people who voted for his tax policies aren’t even close to being in the tax bracket that will benefit. But it doesn’t matter since he got them to focus on gas and eggs prices, which ironically is not that bad. He’s a master story teller, for real.

If some of the things Trump has proposed comes to fruition, like not taxing SS benefits, it will help the economy as it will be putting money into people's hands for them to spend. The problem is that it brings SS insolvency closer as that tax money is plowed back into the system, and even with those funds, they'll have to stop paying out full benefits in the early 2030's. The Devil is in the details.

That's one of the things that I don't like about both the political parties. The Republicans want to cut taxes but either don't understand or tell you of the consequences. The Democrats want to raise taxes on the rich but either don't understand or tell you of the consequences.