Coronavirus Hype

[RiverDog]

China didn't handle it very well at all. I still believe they are heavily under-reporting cases and manipulating information to look more favorable than they are.

I guess we don't know that for sure, one way or another. Although it's probably more likely and easier for a communist country to manipulate the data, any of the other countries could be doing it as well.

South Korea and Germany are not totalitarian nations and handled it much better. People motivated by personal protect and well-informed with a better funded medical system and open communication can handle this much better than a poor nation like China with poor communication. It will be handled much better in America. I hope we can somewhat equal South Korea and Germany.

It's hard to say why some countries got hit much worse than others and while some have barely registered. It could just be dumb luck. Despite being the 2nd most populous country in the world, India has had just 82 cases and 2 deaths. Are they not checking for it? And why does Iran have the third most reported cases in the world, over 11,000, while next door neighbor Iraq has just 83?

We're still in mid stream in this crisis. We'll have to wait until the post mortem occurs a year or so from now to fully understand what worked and what didn't. Does it really help to close schools and put kids back onto the streets to mingle with others rather than keeping them in one place and away from other adults? How effective was banning travel from Europe? Does it help to close down UW and WSU and send students every which way, including back to California?

[Aseahawkfan]

It's hard to say why some countries got hit much worse than others and while some have barely registered. It could just be dumb luck. Despite being the 2nd most populous country in the world, India has had just 82 cases and 2 deaths. Are they not checking for it? And why does Iran have the third most reported cases in the world, over 11,000, while next door neighbor Iraq has just 83?

We're still in mid stream in this crisis. We'll have to wait until the post mortem occurs a year or so from now to fully understand what worked and what didn't. Does it really help to close schools and put kids back onto the streets to mingle with others rather than keeping them in one place and away from other adults? How effective was banning travel from Europe? Does it help to close down UW and WSU and send students every which way, including back to California?

True. Could be be genetics as well.

It is odd Iran has such a high level. Makes you wonder if they had heavy contact with something from China that we don't know about. Then again we may hear soon that the United States released the virus to harm its enemies with China, Iran, and North Korea most damaged. Latin America seems surprisingly ok right now as well too. We'll see if it eventually gets to them.

[RiverDog]

True. Could be be genetics as well.

It is odd Iran has such a high level. Makes you wonder if they had heavy contact with something from China that we don't know about. Then again we may hear soon that the United States released the virus to harm its enemies with China, Iran, and North Korea most damaged. Latin America seems surprisingly ok right now as well too. We'll see if it eventually gets to them.

Repeating something I heard earlier. The one factor that helped South Korea is that they have ample hospital bed space, 2nd best in the world at 11 per 1,000 people. Germany is also in a good position to fight the virus as they have 9 beds per thousand, the best in western Europe. Our bed space situation at less than 3 per thousand is worse than Italy's 3.3 beds. That doesn't bode well for us getting over this with little impact.

Central and South America are a little off the radar. Same with Australia. There's not near the interaction with those regions as there is with Europe and the Pacific rim countries so it's not surprising that they're Tail End Charlie.

[Aseahawkfan]

Repeating something I heard earlier. The one factor that helped South Korea is that they have ample hospital bed space, 2nd best in the world at 11 per 1,000 people. Germany is also in a good position to fight the virus as they have 9 beds per thousand, the best in western Europe. Our bed space situation at less than 3 per thousand is worse than Italy's 3.3 beds. That doesn't bode well for us getting over this with little impact.

Central and South America are a little off the radar. Same with Australia. There's not near the interaction with those regions as there is with Europe and the Pacific rim countries so it's not surprising that they're Tail End Charlie.

Will be interesting to see how it plays out here. I think our medical situation is better than Italy. People don't realize it, but Italy, Spain, and other Southern European nations are not as advanced as places like Germany, Japan, American, and the Scandinavian Nations. They have a lot of rustic and old world areas that more like older America.

I think we're going to do fine, but time will tell.

[RiverDog]

Will be interesting to see how it plays out here. I think our medical situation is better than Italy. People don't realize it, but Italy, Spain, and other Southern European nations are not as advanced as places like Germany, Japan, American, and the Scandinavian Nations. They have a lot of rustic and old world areas that more like older America.

I think we're going to do fine, but time will tell.

Agreed. The advantage we have over Italy is that we have their experience to learn from. So long as we don't get hit with a huge spike that overwhelms our facilities, I think we'll be able to ride this thing out.

I see where our Chief Buffoon finally declared a state of emergency, freeing up a lot of resources to fight this virus and gives the country some confidence that we're on top of it. There's also some indication that the White House and Congress might actually agree with a plan to mitigate some of the economic effects, all of which probably accounted for the stock market bump. Better late than never.

[Aseahawkfan]

Agreed. The advantage we have over Italy is that we have their experience to learn from. So long as we don't get hit with a huge spike that overwhelms our facilities, I think we'll be able to ride this thing out.

I see where our Chief Buffoon finally declared a state of emergency, freeing up a lot of resources to fight this virus and gives the country some confidence that we're on top of it. There's also some indication that the White House and Congress might actually agree with a plan to mitigate some of the economic effects, all of which probably accounted for the stock market bump. Better late than never.

I don't trust this bump. I think we're in for more rough riding. I have positions in stocks I like at prices I like. I wish I had grabbed some more yesterday, but maybe I get another chance.

[RiverDog]

Agreed. The advantage we have over Italy is that we have their experience to learn from. So long as we don't get hit with a huge spike that overwhelms our facilities, I think we'll be able to ride this thing out.

I see where our Chief Buffoon finally declared a state of emergency, freeing up a lot of resources to fight this virus and gives the country some confidence that we're on top of it. There's also some indication that the White House and Congress might actually agree with a plan to mitigate some of the economic effects, all of which probably accounted for the stock market bump. Better late than never.

I don't trust this bump (in the stock market?). I think we're in for more rough riding. I have positions in stocks I like at prices I like. I wish I had grabbed some more yesterday, but maybe I get another chance.

Yesterday's bump was an echo, not a recovery. Some of it was due to Trump's much more reasoned response to the crisis yesterday, compared to his totally inadequate and in some cases irresponsible remarks on previous occasions, and the news that the White House and Congress might actually work together on a recovery plan.

Even if the coronavirus were to disappear tomorrow, it's going to take months for people to regain their confidence and start traveling/buying things. If not a full scale recession, the economy has slowed way down and will take months to get back to normal. You'll have plenty more buying opportunities, although hopefully we won't see too many more 1,000 point ass kickings. It's also an election year, which carries with it it's own uncertainty.

I haven't talked to anyone from my former employment, but I'll bet they're nervous as hell. The timing of this crisis couldn't have been worse for them. We have to grow seed this spring and summer for the 2021 production crop, so we must anticipate sales 18 months in advance as decisions have to be made in January-early February in order seed growers to know how much seed we're going to need in next year's season so they can plant their crops in March and April. Those decisions won't see production results until the fall of 2021 when that crop is harvested. The last of that crop won't be processed until June of 2022, then add to that an 18-24 month shelf life after its processed. That's how far out we have to plan for our production needs. It's a business that supplies food to resteraunts, ie French fries, hash browns, and other potato products, and is highly dependent on consumers traveling and eating away from home.

So what could happen if demand is flat over the next two years is that we end up growing way too many potatoes and fill up raw and finished warehouses this year and in 2021-22. We can only store raw product for about 9 months, finished product for up to 2 years. They're bulky items on the order of 2 billion pounds a year that have to be maintained in very large, climate controlled warehouses.

That's an example of how a 2-3 month crisis could affect a business for up to two years. I'm sure there are others with similar dilemmas.

[Aseahawkfan]

Yesterday's bump was an echo, not a recovery. Some of it was due to Trump's much more reasoned response to the crisis yesterday, compared to his totally inadequate and in some cases irresponsible remarks on previous occasions, and the news that the White House and Congress might actually work together on a recovery plan.

Even if the coronavirus were to disappear tomorrow, it's going to take months for people to regain their confidence and start traveling/buying things. If not a full scale recession, the economy has slowed way down and will take months to get back to normal. You'll have plenty more buying opportunities, although hopefully we won't see too many more 1,000 point ass kickings. It's also an election year, which carries with it it's own uncertainty.

I haven't talked to anyone from my former employment, but I'll bet they're nervous as hell. The timing of this crisis couldn't have been worse for them. We have to grow seed this spring and summer for the 2021 production crop, so we must anticipate sales 18 months in advance as decisions have to be made in January-early February in order seed growers to know how much seed we're going to need in next year's season so they can plant their crops in March and April. Those decisions won't see production results until the fall of 2021 when that crop is harvested. The last of that crop won't be processed until June of 2022, then add to that an 18-24 month shelf life after its processed. That's how far out we have to plan for our production needs. It's a business that supplies food to resteraunts, ie French fries, hash browns, and other potato products, and is highly dependent on consumers traveling and eating away from home.

So what could happen if demand is flat over the next two years is that we end up growing way too many potatoes and fill up raw and finished warehouses this year and in 2021-22. We can only store raw product for about 9 months, finished product for up to 2 years. They're bulky items on the order of 2 billion pounds a year that have to be maintained in very large, climate controlled warehouses.

That's an example of how a 2-3 month crisis could affect a business for up to two years. I'm sure there are others with similar dilemmas.

Potatoes right? They were sold out when I went to the grocery store. People are loading up on bulk food that lasts as they lose their minds. So your former company might end up doing very well. They're acting like the end of the world a long, long quarantine.

I still think way more people are sick and more people have been sick and developed immunity. The genie has been out of the bottle for months and hasn't been tracked due to the mild, flu-like symptoms in the majority of people. There is still a huge lack of testing and was a huge lack of testing. Given the connections we have to China, this was probably brought over even before it blew up in China. Some people don't realize how much contact Washington State has with China on a near constant basis. Where I work at we deal with Chinese people from China almost daily and did prior to the corona virus explosion in China. I think that is likely where Washington got this started and it has been going for a while. Once they finally test out, they'll find a ton of corona virus and corona virus immunity here.

I think once the cases slow and the measures end, people will kick up quickly. People forget sickness pretty quick, though some will remain very paranoid.

[RiverDog]

Potatoes right? They were sold out when I went to the grocery store. People are loading up on bulk food that lasts as they lose their minds. So your former company might end up doing very well. They're acting like the end of the world a long, long quarantine.

Yes, potatoes. But what you buy in the grocery store is fresh. Only about 10% of all potatoes grown in the Columbia Basin go to the fresh market. Most are processed into French fries, hash browns, mashed potatoes, etc. As a matter of fact, my former employer doesn't do any business on the fresh market.

They do some very limited business in the retail market, which is what you can buy as frozen French fries, tater tots, hash browns, etc, at the grocery store, but even that doesn't represent but a small fraction of their business. It's essentially a byproduct using small potatoes and side cuts not suitable for French fries. The vast majority of their business is in institutional products sold to McDonald's, Burger King, all major fast food resteraunts chains along with other types of eating establishments like schools, the military, hospitals, etc. The product I was most familiar with was the waffle fries we made for Chic-fil-A. This virus is going to cut into their profits big time. But they'll bounce back. They're expanding into all corners of the world.

I still think way more people are sick and more people have been sick and developed immunity. The genie has been out of the bottle for months and hasn't been tracked due to the mild, flu-like symptoms in the majority of people. There is still a huge lack of testing and was a huge lack of testing. Given the connections we have to China, this was probably brought over even before it blew up in China. Some people don't realize how much contact Washington State has with China on a near constant basis. Where I work at we deal with Chinese people from China almost daily and did prior to the corona virus explosion in China. I think that is likely where Washington got this started and it has been going for a while. Once they finally test out, they'll find a ton of corona virus and corona virus immunity here.

I think once the cases slow and the measures end, people will kick up quickly. People forget sickness pretty quick, though some will remain very paranoid.

Vancouver, BC has a lot of contact with China as well, but British Columbia has just 5 reported cases of COVID-19, so I don't think you can blame it on our contacts with China. But I do agree with you that this could very well have been circulating for some time. We'll see what happens when they get more testing done. Like I said earlier, it will be many months before we can dissect this crisis, figure out how it spread, what was effective and what wasn't.

[Aseahawkfan]

Vancouver, BC has a lot of contact with China as well, but British Columbia has just 5 reported cases of COVID-19, so I don't think you can blame it on our contacts with China. But I do agree with you that this could very well have been circulating for some time. We'll see what happens when they get more testing done. Like I said earlier, it will be many months before we can dissect this crisis, figure out how it spread, what was effective and what wasn't.

True about Vancouver. Maybe it was circulating beforehand. They are speculating that it came from some animal in China, but who knows, maybe it started here and we weren't looking and the majority of symptoms seemed like the flu. I imagine we'll find out in time.

I keep wondering why Italy is getting so hammered. That is the part that surprises me. Most of Europe is handling this fine, but Italy is getting slaughtered like they have some worse strain or some genetic disposition for fatality. Pretty crazy.

You used to make the Chic-fil-a fries. Cool. Those are good. Your company will take a big hit with going out to eat down for sure.

[RiverDog]

Vancouver, BC has a lot of contact with China as well, but British Columbia has just 5 reported cases of COVID-19, so I don't think you can blame it on our contacts with China. But I do agree with you that this could very well have been circulating for some time. We'll see what happens when they get more testing done. Like I said earlier, it will be many months before we can dissect this crisis, figure out how it spread, what was effective and what wasn't.

True about Vancouver. Maybe it was circulating beforehand. They are speculating that it came from some animal in China, but who knows, maybe it started here and we weren't looking and the majority of symptoms seemed like the flu. I imagine we'll find out in time.

I keep wondering why Italy is getting so hammered. That is the part that surprises me. Most of Europe is handling this fine, but Italy is getting slaughtered like they have some worse strain or some genetic disposition for fatality. Pretty crazy.

You used to make the Chic-fil-a fries. Cool. Those are good. Your company will take a big hit with going out to eat down for sure.

We're all just speculating about why different countries are getting hit harder than others. It might have been factors totally at random, like why my tree got struck by lightning but my neighbors didn't.

Chic-Fil-A is an amazing company. Their founder, Truant Cathey (sp) was a devout Christian and refused to do business on Sundays. He financially adapted thousands of of poor kids, mostly minorities that he met as his workers, and insured that they met their goals like college or something other than flipping chicken patties for him. He's long since passed away, but due to his insistence, they are and always will be a private company, so don't waste your time trying to buy their stock. They are a very good customer, stayed with us through thick and thin instead of jumping on a competitor's offer to undercut our price. I attended a meeting at their request that did nothing but explain who their company was, no lectures about past complaints or anything like that. If they do have a complaint, they are easy to work with to resolve it. They bought our employees tee shirts, shook hands with them at the doorway at the end of shift and thanked them for their hard work. Their theory is that if their representatives shake hands personally with our workers, they are more likely to not throw that bag of product that fell onto the floor into a box.

[Aseahawkfan]

We're all just speculating about why different countries are getting hit harder than others. It might have been factors totally at random, like why my tree got struck by lightning but my neighbors didn't.

Chic-Fil-A is an amazing company. Their founder, Truant Cathey (sp) was a devout Christian and refused to do business on Sundays. He financially adapted thousands of of poor kids, mostly minorities that he met as his workers, and insured that they met their goals like college or something other than flipping chicken patties for him. He's long since passed away, but due to his insistence, they are and always will be a private company, so don't waste your time trying to buy their stock. They are a very good customer, stayed with us through thick and thin instead of jumping on a competitor's offer to undercut our price. I attended a meeting at their request that did nothing but explain who their company was, no lectures about past complaints or anything like that. If they do have a complaint, they are easy to work with to resolve it. They bought our employees tee shirts, shook hands with them at the doorway at the end of shift and thanked them for their hard work. Their theory is that if their representatives shake hands personally with our workers, they are more likely to not throw that bag of product that fell onto the floor into a box.

Sounds like one of them old school storybook American companies with a stand-up owner that would be vilified nowadays for standing by his values when others don't agree regardless of how well he treats people. That's a dying breed in America.

[RiverDog]

Sounds like one of them old school storybook American companies with a stand-up owner that would be vilified nowadays for standing by his values when others don't agree regardless of how well he treats people. That's a dying breed in America.

Good companies still exist. Perhaps not to the same degree as CFA, but they are out there. It's like anything else in life: They are what you make of it. You gotta hard on about evil, profit driven corporations? Most likely you'll never find a good company, you'll always find a reason not to like them.

[Aseahawkfan]

Good companies still exist. Perhaps not to the same degree as CFA, but they are out there. It's like anything else in life: They are what you make of it. You gotta hard on about evil, profit driven corporations? Most likely you'll never find a good company, you'll always find a reason not to like them.

Why do you think I don't like profit driven companies because I don't like medicine for profit? I invest in profit driven companies. You should be able to see that I very much like and support capitalism for most things. It is light years better than socialism or communism which are ideological pipedreams than productive economic systems on the whole. I believe that socializing some things here and there is more beneficial to the overall capitalist structure.

I think Chick-Fil-A is one of those old school owners that used to exist in a lot of communities usually owning factories or the like that took extra measures to develop a personal relationship with their employees and customers. It's not as prevalent in the modern day more due to the sheer size of the world. Just noting a throwback of a person that we likely won't see much any longer because the world is so big and there are so many people. Hard to have that kind of relationship any longer.

Microsoft, Google, and Facebook are good to their people, but not in that up close and personal way like the Chick-Fil-A owner and they wouldn't even say much about their values as modern corporations have to appeal to the widest possible audience or they'll get attacked and vilifed. Big Tech treats their people pretty well. Microsoft gives out free drinks. Google and Facebook free drinks and food. They are great places to work, though they do ask a lot of you for the reward.

It's a much bigger world and different environment where you often can't be like the Chick-Fil-A owner. He is a throwback to an older, smaller America. I've even seen Chick-Fil-A under attack from the liberal left because they don't like their stance on homosexuality. They keep trying to punish that company, but their chicken sandwiches are too good.

[RiverDog]

Good companies still exist. Perhaps not to the same degree as CFA, but they are out there. It's like anything else in life: They are what you make of it. You gotta hard on about evil, profit driven corporations? Most likely you'll never find a good company, you'll always find a reason not to like them.

Why do you think I don't like profit driven companies because I don't like medicine for profit?

I didn't mean 'you' per se, and probably should have phrased it better.

I think Chick-Fil-A is one of those old school owners that used to exist in a lot of communities usually owning factories or the like that took extra measures to develop a personal relationship with their employees and customers. It's not as prevalent in the modern day more due to the sheer size of the world. Just noting a throwback of a person that we likely won't see much any longer because the world is so big and there are so many people. Hard to have that kind of relationship any longer.

Microsoft, Google, and Facebook are good to their people, but not in that up close and personal way like the Chick-Fil-A owner and they wouldn't even say much about their values as modern corporations have to appeal to the widest possible audience or they'll get attacked and vilifed. Big Tech treats their people pretty well. Microsoft gives out free drinks. Google and Facebook free drinks and food. They are great places to work, though they do ask a lot of you for the reward.

It's a much bigger world and different environment where you often can't be like the Chick-Fil-A owner. He is a throwback to an older, smaller America. I've even seen Chick-Fil-A under attack from the liberal left because they don't like their stance on homosexuality. They keep trying to punish that company, but their chicken sandwiches are too good.

Agreed. It also depends on what kind of business you're in. Shaking hands with employees seems like a cool way to get some good face time with employees, but do you want to drive out to the plant at midnight when 2nd shift gets off work? Wanna have lunch with the graveyard shift? Better be there starting at 3:00am. I saw a tip for generating good feelings amongst workers by initiating a "bring your pet to work day" and thought to myself "with my crew of 100+ people, that pet had better be a goldfish."

[Aseahawkfan]

How come Russia is strangely fine? Have they not gotten hit yet? It's like a big old sea of red around them.

[RiverDog]

How come Russia is strangely fine? Have they not gotten hit yet? It's like a big old sea of red around them.

Just a few guesses: Russia is not huge tourist destination. They are a very sparsely populated nation. They are relatively young vs. the rest of Europe with an average age under 40 years old.

But who knows. Iran is one of the youngest countries in the world with an average age of 30 and almost no tourism, yet they got slammed while neighboring Iraq was barely touched. There doesn't seem to be a defining characteristic that makes one country more likely than another to acquire the virus, at least not that we can see now.

[c_hawkbob]

According the Jeremy Farrar at The Economist it just a matter of them controlling their media "Tourism flows and death rates suggest covid-19 is being under-reported, Indonesia, Myanmar, Russia and the Philippines have confirmed just eight cases".

[RiverDog]

According the Jeremy Farrar at The Economist it just a matter of them controlling their media "Tourism flows and death rates suggest covid-19 is being under-reported, Indonesia, Myanmar, Russia and the Philippines have confirmed just eight cases".

Perhaps that can explain some countries low number of reported cases. But what about Iran? Their media is pretty well controlled, is it not?

IMO Iran having the 3rd most reported cases in the world while Iraq's are relatively few is the biggest mystery.

[Aseahawkfan]

Russia is surprising because they are pretty free now too. If Russia was getting hammered, someone would be posting it on the Internet somewhere. They aren't a super controlled Communist country any more and are less controlled than China. Maybe they don't have the money for testing, but It seems more they aren't getting hit hard yet.

[RiverDog]

I wonder what's going to happen when they start testing Seattle's homeless community? You know it's going to get to them sooner or later if it's not circulating there already. With their lack of social distancing and absence of basic hygiene, I'm wondering if they'd ever get control of it. I certainly wouldn't want to volunteer to go down there and start testing them.

I saw an article in the NY Post about the use of reusable cloth grocery bags that should make us re-think legislation banning single use plastic bags:

Researchers have been warning for years about the risks of these bags spreading deadly viral and bacterial diseases, but public officials have ignored their concerns, determined to eliminate single-use bags and other plastic products despite their obvious advantages in reducing the spread of pathogens.

An earlier study of supermarkets in Arizona and California found large numbers of bacteria in almost all the reusable bags — and no contamination in any of the new single-use plastic bags. When a bag with meat juice on the interior was stored in the trunk of a car, within two hours the number of bacteria multiplied tenfold.

An outbreak of viral gastroenteritis among a girls’ soccer team in Oregon was traced to a reusable grocery bag that had sat on the floor of a hotel bathroom. In a 2012 study, researchers analyzed the effects of San Francisco’s ban on single-use plastic grocery bags by comparing emergency-room admissions in the city against those of nearby counties without the bag ban. The researchers, Jonathan Klick of the University of Pennsylvania and Joshua Wright of George Mason University, reported a 25 percent increase in bacteria-related illnesses and deaths in San Francisco relative to the other counties.

https://nypost.com/2020/03/14/using-tot ... eLMkHd34f8

[Aseahawkfan]

I still believe it's been circulating in Seattle since January or late December. We have a lot of contact with China through Microsoft, Amazon, and other big tech companies. There were a lot of people getting sick with mild symptoms that came to work and wandered around. It is only after it blew up that anyone cared. I think the world in general has more immunity than they know. They were not doing any testing and even now testing is slow and ponderous with them focusing tests on people with bad or visible symptoms. Those are the main cases that will show up on the confirmed cases. Until testing gets better and they test for previous immunity, we don't know the full extent of the cases. They been overlooking this for so long, it seems shocking when they find it but it's been here with us a while. People need to calm down. They are freaking out because Americans can't stand death of any kind and the government has to appear to want to protect everyone. The reality is that a virus like this has to run it's course and do it's job.

Even now doctors are withholding testing from people who are experiencing mild symptoms or are asymptomatic unless you got money. So for every one case documented, imagine there are 3 to 5 or more people with the virus wandering around thinking they have a mild fever or cold and don't go to the doctor because they can't afford it or don't want to go or people who don't even know they have it. There are probably over a million people infected right now and probably a million people that have already had it or more. They are not testing for immunity right now.

The biggest problem with this corona virus is the mildness of the symptoms for most and the ease with which it spreads. For anyone under 40 or 50 it's not much of a worry, but anyone over 60 it's dangerous, and if you're over 70 or 80 or have serious health problems it's super dangerous and high risk. We have a lot of older people with health problems in this nation. It spreads so fast, it has a good chance of getting them and we gotta slow that.

[RiverDog]

The fact that most people won't get sick from it isn't the worry. The worry is it overwhelming our facilities. Like they've been saying, the object is to flatten the curve and prevent a big spike in cases.

I have a friend who's uncle became one of WA's COVID-19 death statistics. They think he contracted it when he took his wife into the hospital for kidney dialysis. I don't know much about his health other than he had to have been well into his 80's.

I participate in a group from my old home town of Walla Walla. They're dusting off the cob webs of an old hospital that closed about 6-8 years ago as a precaution even though they've yet to have anyone test positive. One of the reasons why we have such few hospital beds is that they've been steering people away from hospitals and towards same day surgery centers. I had a rotator cuff repair and a hernia repair in them. It's an economically wise move but it has had the unintended consequence of reducing our capacity should we ever get hit by something like this. IMO once this is all over with, there's going to be a complete re-thinking of our medical infrastructure.

[Aseahawkfan]

The fact that most people won't get sick from it isn't the worry. The worry is it overwhelming our facilities. Like they've been saying, the object is to flatten the curve and prevent a big spike in cases.

I have a friend who's uncle became one of WA's COVID-19 death statistics. They think he contracted it when he took his wife into the hospital for kidney dialysis. I don't know much about his health other than he had to have been well into his 80's.

I participate in a group from my old home town of Walla Walla. They're dusting off the cob webs of an old hospital that closed about 6-8 years ago as a precaution even though they've yet to have anyone test positive. One of the reasons why we have such few hospital beds is that they've been steering people away from hospitals and towards same day surgery centers. I had a rotator cuff repair and a hernia repair in them. It's an economically wise move but it has had the unintended consequence of reducing our capacity should we ever get hit by something like this. IMO once this is all over with, there's going to be a complete re-thinking of our medical infrastructure.

A re-thinking of our medical structure would be like buying the snow plows for Seattle for one bad winter, then selling them because it didn't come. This is one of those once in a lifetime things. At best they should find means to ramp up in the case of a pandemic, but in no way should they spend money and resources thinking this will be an every year situation. Even now I think they are doing too much economic destruction to protect people. Sometimes you have to let these things go and see who is standing at the end.

I think they should focus more on isolating older people and letting younger people build herd immunity. Now they're isolating everyone wreaking economic destruction on the economy and destroying small businesses that can't survive extended shutdowns to protect a very small portion of the population. I don't know that it is worth it. But we'll see if this economic destruction is worth it. The number of small and mid-sized businesses that might get wiped out is going to be fairly high with Inslee shutting down all restaurants, bars, and the like who very much need consistent business to survive.

[RiverDog]

A re-thinking of our medical structure would be like buying the snow plows for Seattle for one bad winter, then selling them because it didn't come. This is one of those once in a lifetime things. At best they should find means to ramp up in the case of a pandemic, but in no way should they spend money and resources thinking this will be an every year situation. Even now I think they are doing too much economic destruction to protect people. Sometimes you have to let these things go and see who is standing at the end.

The coronavirus-like crisis is just one possible scenario where we might need more infrastructure. A war would be another, or some type of natural disaster, like if Yellowstone were ever to erupt would be another. Besides, I'm not necessarily talking about building more hospitals, I'm talking about mothballing old ones rather than tearing them down or re-purposing them or having more mobile MASH units ready to activate. Additionally, it would appear that we need to maintain a stockpile of certain items, like PPE for first responders, respirators, that sort of stuff, similar to how we keep a reserve of oil and gas in the event of a national emergency.

I think they should focus more on isolating older people and letting younger people build herd immunity. Now they're isolating everyone wreaking economic destruction on the economy and destroying small businesses that can't survive extended shutdowns to protect a very small portion of the population. I don't know that it is worth it. But we'll see if this economic destruction is worth it. The number of small and mid-sized businesses that might get wiped out is going to be fairly high with Inslee shutting down all restaurants, bars, and the like who very much need consistent business to survive.

First off, this pandemic has yet to run its course so we're not exactly sure of the age groups that will ultimately be affected. I just saw a report out of England where they are seeing an increase of people under 60 getting critically ill from COVID-19. However, I do think there is some merit to your suggestion, and I think a few stores are beginning to hit on it by establishing senior only shopping hours at grocery stores, from when they are first open until 9:00am so they can get first crack at re-stocked shelves and not be subjected to the younger folks panicking and buying umpteen cases of bottled water (without seeing any surveys, I can almost guarantee you that the majority of the large scale panic buying is from the under 60 age group).

On the flip side of your age related proposal, although I'm sure they've thought it out, I'm wondering about the wisdom of canceling classes, especially colleges like WSU where they are already living in relative isolation in a county that has yet to have its first reported case. Would it be wise to insist that students attending the Pullman campus at least stay in Pullman rather than allowing them to take the opportunity to go back home, especially considering that a plurality of their student body comes from King County?

[Aseahawkfan]

This could be a once in a century issue. It has to kill a whole lot more people for me to want widespread changes.

First off, this pandemic has yet to run its course so we're not exactly sure of the age groups that will ultimately be affected. I just saw a report out of England where they are seeing an increase of people under 60 getting critically ill from COVID-19. However, I do think there is some merit to your suggestion, and I think a few stores are beginning to hit on it by establishing senior only shopping hours at grocery stores, from when they are first open until 9:00am so they can get first crack at re-stocked shelves and not be subjected to the younger folks panicking and buying umpteen cases of bottled water (without seeing any surveys, I can almost guarantee you that the majority of the large scale panic buying is from the under 60 age group).

On the flip side of your age related proposal, although I'm sure they've thought it out, I'm wondering about the wisdom of canceling classes, especially colleges like WSU where they are already living in relative isolation in a county that has yet to have its first reported case. Would it be wise to insist that students attending the Pullman campus at least stay in Pullman rather than allowing them to take the opportunity to go back home, especially considering that a plurality of their student body comes from King County?

I heard some person talking about under 65 or under 60 to try to scare younger people into staying home. Let me see the numbers without comorbities included.

I'm a pretty callous person in the minds of most. I'm not one of those if one person dies, we should shut down the world type of people. A certain amount of people are going to die. We should be ready to accept that to keep the world from crumbling into a far worse place to save people that are already very close to death. Sometimes you have to suck it up and make the world go on in hard times. Like they've done in the past many, many times in far worse scenarios.

Life is life. Sometimes Mother Nature isn't going to let humans live comfortably. It's up to us to decide whether to destroy our world to save the minority or keep the world going to save the majority from a terrible life.

[RiverDog]

Life is life. Sometimes Mother Nature isn't going to let humans live comfortably. It's up to us to decide whether to destroy our world to save the minority or keep the world going to save the majority from a terrible life.

I'm comfortable with Mother Nature being in control of my life. What I'm not comfortable with is first responders making decisions as to who goes on the respirator and lives and who is set aside to die.

Tom Hanks and I are virtually the same age, but Hanks has Type 2 diabetes and I'm perfectly healthy, so the odds are he's going to die before me. Suppose we both are critical with the coronavirus and get wheeled in side-by-side. If we both need the one available intensive care room that's available to save our life, do you think they're going to set him aside and give me a lease on life?

We need to do everything within reason to avoid having to put anyone in that situation. I'm not saying that we should be spending billions on facilities we might not ever use, but where there's an opportunity to enhance our readiness for a reasonable cost, like mothballing a hospital instead of selling it off, it needs to be considered.

[Aseahawkfan]

I'm comfortable with Mother Nature being in control of my life. What I'm not comfortable with is first responders making decisions as to who goes on the respirator and lives and who is set aside to die.

Tom Hanks and I are virtually the same age, but Hanks has Type 2 diabetes and I'm perfectly healthy, so the odds are he's going to die before me. Suppose we both are critical with the coronavirus and get wheeled in side-by-side. If we both need the one available intensive care room that's available to save our life, do you think they're going to set him aside and give me a lease on life?

We need to do everything within reason to avoid having to put anyone in that situation. I'm not saying that we should be spending billions on facilities we might not ever use, but where there's an opportunity to enhance our readiness for a reasonable cost, like mothballing a hospital instead of selling it off, it needs to be considered.

Hanks has more juice than you, so that's how it goes. He can pay to have priority over most regular citizens. I'm still surprised he spent five days in the hospital with nearly no symptoms. Then again Australia isn't overwhelmed right now like Italy, so they have the luxury of catering to a rich actor.

I think you'll be fine RD. Most people will is the truth of it. We're working right now to buy time and protect the small group that is most at risk.

This thing is going to roll hard on us. It's still not going to come close to matching 1918 or any of the extremely bad plagues. Hey, at least Trump has mostly shut his mouth at this point. Even he and his cronies finally see this is for real and something needs to be done regardless of what side of the political spectrum you are on.

[RiverDog]

Hanks has more juice than you, so that's how it goes. He can pay to have priority over most regular citizens. I'm still surprised he spent five days in the hospital with nearly no symptoms. Then again Australia isn't overwhelmed right now like Italy, so they have the luxury of catering to a rich actor.

Hanks would have to be paying under the table as the hospitals and providers are going to make as much money off me as they would him, which is my point.

Australia is in the southern hemisphere and it was summer down there when this thing started. Viruses don't like dry heat and sunlight.

I think you'll be fine RD. Most people will is the truth of it. We're working right now to buy time and protect the small group that is most at risk.

I'm not worried about either my wife or myself. We're both retired and were pretty much in self quarantine anyway. We haven't had a visitor for the past several weeks and we only go to the store once a week. Tomorrow I'm going to the supermarket, early in the morning and wearing my nitrile gloves. The only daily routine that's been interrupted is my trip to the gym, which is now closed. Benton County, where I live, has yet to have a confirmed case and the bordering county, Franklin, had their first confirmed case today.

This thing is going to roll hard on us. It's still not going to come close to matching 1918 or any of the extremely bad plagues. Hey, at least Trump has mostly shut his mouth at this point. Even he and his cronies finally see this is for real and something needs to be done regardless of what side of the political spectrum you are on.

Agreed about the comparison to past pandemics.

10/4 on Trump having to clam up. This morning, I saw him being asked a question on a scale of 1 to 10 to rate his response to the coronavirus. Bet you can't guess what his answer was. Some things never change.

[Aseahawkfan]

We need Hawktawk and IDhawkman to update us on their states.

[RiverDog]

We need Hawktawk and IDhawkman to update us on their states.

States or status? Hawktalk lives in Moses Lake. But yea, I'd like to hear both those guys chime in, even though I can anticipate what each one of them will say.

The virus is beginning to spread into E. Washington ever so slightly. I see where Grant County, Hawktalk's home, has 7 confirmed cases. None of the E. Washington counties have broken double digits in reported cases, but they haven't been doing much testing, either. Obviously as more testing is done, there will be more cases reported.

I've been getting into arguments with some of my friends over social media, mostly high school classmates that are my age, that are minimizing the threat the virus poses. They're not calling it a hoax, but they are objecting to the measures being taken and using it as an opportunity to harpoon our governor, whom I don't like, either. Nearly all of these folks are avid Trump supporters, which shows just how irresponsible DJT was when he first started downplaying the virus, comparing it to his impeachment trial and saying that it was nothing more than an attempt by the Democrats to embarrass him.

[Aseahawkfan]

States or status? Hawktalk lives in Moses Lake. But yea, I'd like to hear both those guys chime in, even though I can anticipate what each one of them will say.

The virus is beginning to spread into E. Washington ever so slightly. I see where Grant County, Hawktalk's home, has 7 confirmed cases. None of the E. Washington counties have broken double digits in reported cases, but they haven't been doing much testing, either. Obviously as more testing is done, there will be more cases reported.

I've been getting into arguments with some of my friends over social media, mostly high school classmates that are my age, that are minimizing the threat the virus poses. They're not calling it a hoax, but they are objecting to the measures being taken and using it as an opportunity to harpoon our governor, whom I don't like, either. Nearly all of these folks are avid Trump supporters, which shows just how irresponsible DJT was when he first started downplaying the virus, comparing it to his impeachment trial and saying that it was nothing more than an attempt by the Democrats to embarrass him.

I thought Hawktawk lived in California. Moses Lake? Didn't know.

[RiverDog]

I thought Hawktawk lived in California. Moses Lake? Didn't know.

Not sure what's happened to Hawktalk. I actually sort of miss his colorful metaphors. It's been getting pretty quiet in here lately.

[Aseahawkfan]

Not sure what's happened to Hawktalk. I actually sort of miss his colorful metaphors. It's been getting pretty quiet in here lately.

I hope he is alright. I know he is at the age where this has a higher chance of being a problem. Hopefully we don't lose any forum members in this terrible time.

I'd like to know if IDhawkman's saunas are still working.

[RiverDog]

Not sure what's happened to Hawktalk. I actually sort of miss his colorful metaphors. It's been getting pretty quiet in here lately.

I hope he is alright. I know he is at the age where this has a higher chance of being a problem. Hopefully we don't lose any forum members in this terrible time.

As far as the coronavirus goes, I'm sure he's fine. He works as a superintendent at a remote destination golf course way off the beaten path between Moses Lake and Othello, so he's already in self quarantine. Although it's been awhile since he's gone this long without poking his nose in here, he does go several days without visiting.

I'd like to know if IDhawkman's saunas are still working.

Hehe. I'd like to know if he's changed his tune. Hell, even our tough talking POTUS has been pretty glum the past few days, quite a contrast from a couple of weeks ago when he was calling it a hoax. And he hasn't been lighting up Twitter.

Italy reported 475 deaths from COVID-19 in just one day and bring the total to over 3,000. They now have 35,713 confirmed cases. Italy is a country of just 60 million. If we were to project those numbers onto our country, it would mean 16,500 deaths and almost 200,000 cases. In the entire country, we have around 900,000 hospital beds. It would completely overwhelm our health care system.

I'm also seeing reports that it may not be limited to just the elderly. Over half of France's patients in intensive care for the disease are under 60 years old.

We are still not even close to being locked down. Last night,I saw pictures of beaches in Florida jam packed with college students on spring break. No wonder Bernie Sanders and his free college proposals lost big in that state. Here in WA, bars resteraunts, schools, and all gatherings of over 50 people are supposed to be prohibited but I just talked to my former boss last night and they're still running full bore. Their Richland campus employs around 700 and makes junk food for McDonald's. Some parts of our society are having to fall on their swords yet with others, it's business as usual. Whether or not the gloom and doom predictions come true or not remains to be seen, but we are hugely exposed.

[RiverDog]

New C.D.C. data showed that nearly 40 percent of patients sick enough to be hospitalized were aged 20 to 54.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/heal ... eople.html

Of course, they are more likely to recover, but nevertheless, this shows that it's not limited to us old puckers.

[MackStrongIsMyHero]

I am wondering if full-on lock down is coming. So far, Louisiana bars, restaurants, gyms, civic centers, etc... have complied with the closures, but other non-essential businesses are open. I work for the highway department now, and they aren't talking about closing down yet and neither is the consulting engineering firm my wife works for. I wonder if they are trying to avoid the cost that would come with mass amounts of leave being taken all at once.

[RiverDog]

I am wondering if full-on lock down is coming. So far, Louisiana bars, restaurants, gyms, civic centers, etc... have complied with the closures, but other non-essential businesses are open. I work for the highway department now, and they aren't talking about closing down yet and neither is the consulting engineering firm my wife works for. I wonder if they are trying to avoid the cost that would come with mass amounts of leave being taken all at once.

Businesses like yours and your wife doesn't call for a lot of close interaction (ie within 6 feet) with other humans. But with my former employer, we have people working shoulder-to-shoulder, taking their breaks in a crowded cafeteria, and swimming through a sea of people waiting to clock out/clock in. Plus we have a lot of older people, some working past retirement age, and we have a lot of immigrants with family in other countries, including some of the hardest hit areas in Europe and Asia. Who knows who they've come in contact with over the past few months.

I can understand the concern of laying off so many people as we're one of the largest employers in our region, but it's pretty hard to explain to the small business owner that might have 20 people inside his resteraunts to close his doors and take the hit while large, deep pocketed companies with hundreds of employees are allowed to operate.

[I-5]

But with my former employer, we have people working shoulder-to-shoulder, taking their breaks in a crowded cafeteria, and swimming through a sea of people waiting to clock out/clock in. Plus we have a lot of older people, some working past retirement age, and we have a lot of immigrants with family in other countries, including some of the hardest hit areas in Europe and Asia. Who knows who they've come in contact with over the past few months.

Sorry I haven't logged on much lately. The main thing I'm coming to realize is that Italy is showing is that a lot of young people are struggling in the hospital, even if it's mostly older people dying. This article really brings it home for me, and the video link is sobering and terrifying to see. Every asymptomatic person walking around could be infecting 50 or more people every time they go out, so when you think about each gathering has the potential to overwhelm a healthcare facility in any given region, it's hard to imagine - but all we have to do it look at Italy, who is recognized as having one of the world's finest healthcare systems. How can anyone not take this seriously at this point is beyond me.

https://news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavi ... r-11954229

[Aseahawkfan]

New C.D.C. data showed that nearly 40 percent of patients sick enough to be hospitalized were aged 20 to 54.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/heal ... eople.html

Of course, they are more likely to recover, but nevertheless, this shows that it's not limited to us old puckers.

That don't tell us much. We already know that younger people with comorbidities can end up there and 20 to 54 is a huge range. If 3 asthmatic 20 year olds are in there and a bunch of obese, smoking 40 to 50 year olds, then were still not in the young are endangered stage like the 1918 flu which hit the young particularly hard.