Are We Heading For a Recession?

[curmudgeon]

Everything is fine. Inflation Reduction Act celebration trumps all concerns. 8.3% is the new zero. We’re seeing history made. Best President and administration of all time! Four more years!…….

[Aseahawkfan]

It's looking more and more like we're heading for a recession.

Wall Street crashed yesterday, the biggest single day drop in over two years, due to a worse than expected report on inflation, still over 8%. Gas prices have steadily come down over the past 12 weeks, so the hope was that we'd get some relief from price increases, but it didn't happen. Electricity and food both posted double digit percentage increases. The Fed is certain to raise interest rates by another 3/4 of a point in the coming days in an attempt to reduce demand. Plus there is a pending railroad strike that could create more bottlenecks in the supply chain and put even more pressure on prices.

This is bad news for the Dems, who have been hoping to capitalize on SCOTUS's abortion decision in the upcoming midterms less than 2 months away. People have the tendency to vote their pocketbooks.

Employment is still good though. People still have jobs and seem to be continuing to spend. So not sure how much they are feeling the inflation. How are you doing? You're on a somewhat fixed income. Are you feeling the inflation at all?

I was feeling it for a while at the pump. My gas went from about 34 for six gallons to about 28. So a nice drop for me. Food prices are up, but I always buy sales for my proteins. My electricity use is low, so not feeling the power jump.

I think the main inflation I feel is the lean ground beef I buy is 5 to 8 a pound now instead of the 4 bucks a pound I used to get on sale. Where are you feeling in the pinch on inflation?

[Aseahawkfan]

Everything is fine. Inflation Reduction Act celebration trumps all concerns. 8.3% is the new zero. We’re seeing history made. Best President and administration of all time! Four more years!…….

You really like Biden.

[RiverDog]

It's looking more and more like we're heading for a recession.

Wall Street crashed yesterday, the biggest single day drop in over two years, due to a worse than expected report on inflation, still over 8%. Gas prices have steadily come down over the past 12 weeks, so the hope was that we'd get some relief from price increases, but it didn't happen. Electricity and food both posted double digit percentage increases. The Fed is certain to raise interest rates by another 3/4 of a point in the coming days in an attempt to reduce demand. Plus there is a pending railroad strike that could create more bottlenecks in the supply chain and put even more pressure on prices.

This is bad news for the Dems, who have been hoping to capitalize on SCOTUS's abortion decision in the upcoming midterms less than 2 months away. People have the tendency to vote their pocketbooks.

Employment is still good though. People still have jobs and seem to be continuing to spend. So not sure how much they are feeling the inflation. How are you doing? You're on a somewhat fixed income. Are you feeling the inflation at all?

I was feeling it for a while at the pump. My gas went from about 34 for six gallons to about 28. So a nice drop for me. Food prices are up, but I always buy sales for my proteins. My electricity use is low, so not feeling the power jump.

I think the main inflation I feel is the lean ground beef I buy is 5 to 8 a pound now instead of the 4 bucks a pound I used to get on sale. Where are you feeling in the pinch on inflation?

Yeah, thanks to the labor shortage, employment will remain strong. And yes, gas prices coming down is a nice benefit, but they're still about 15% higher than they were last year at this time. Back in June, I was paying over $100 to gas up my motor home. And since it's just the two of us, food prices aren't much of a factor. And electricity is a no never mind. Despite having a record 27 days at 100+ degree temps this summer, our electric bill for last month was $150. So long as we don't allow the Demo-libs to remove the LSRD's, we'll continue to benefit from relatively low electrical rates. We're not hurting, and I'm not complaining.

But grocery and gas prices aren't the problem. The concern is core prices that factors out volatile items like food and fuel that can fluctuate wildly. It had been coming down from a March high of 6.5% to 5.9% last month, but in August, it bumped back up to 6.3%. That doesn't sound like a lot, but it's what has the Fed nervous as it's an indication that inflation isn't going away with the decrease in gas prices.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-sta ... ation-rate

I lived through the late 70's/early 80's and saw what kind of an effect inflation can have. You get a nice raise and see it eaten up almost immediately by high prices. It leads to more conflicts with employers. Companies don't like to have to raise prices. You're seeing that conflict play out in the pending railroad strike, which could have a devasting and long lasting effect on the economy if it happens.

That's why I'm so sensitive to any increase in government spending. Sure, things like student loan forgiveness, stand alone, does not have a significant impact on inflation. But when you start adding in other government spending, like the economic stimulus payments, Biden's BBB initiative, increases in aid to Ukraine, and other government excesses, it starts to add up.

[RiverDog]

And just as I got through posting the above, I saw some really good news relating to the economy:

Railroad strike averted after marathon talks reach tentative deal

Unions and management reached a tentative deal early Thursday that averts a freight railroad strike that had threatened to cripple US supply chains and push prices higher for many goods.

It came after 20 hours of talks between the unions’ leadership and the railroads’ labor negotiators hosted by Labor Secretary Marty Walsh. They began their meeting Wednesday morning with the clock ticking down to a strike that had been set to start at 12:01 am ET on Friday.

The agreement does not mean the threat of a strike has gone away entirely. The deal needs to be ratified by union members. But it’s good news for a wide range of businesses that depend upon the freight railroads to continue to operate, and for the wider US economy. About 30% of the nation’s freight moves by rail.

https://www.yaktrinews.com/i/railroad-s ... K1k-JZ-2Cg

The terms are likely to increase transportation costs, but it's better than the alternative.

Even though Amtrak employees aren't covered by the freight railroad unions, they're still canceling all of their trains that can't have travel completed by tomorrow midnight. But it's merely a precaution as if a strike were to happen, they could have tens of thousands stranded as they share the same rails as freight trains, and if the freight trains aren't moving, they can't just drive off the shoulder and go around them as if a truck were stalled.

[Aseahawkfan]

Yeah, thanks to the labor shortage, employment will remain strong. And yes, gas prices coming down is a nice benefit, but they're still about 15% higher than they were last year at this time. Back in June, I was paying over $100 to gas up my motor home. And since it's just the two of us, food prices aren't much of a factor. And electricity is a no never mind. Despite having a record 27 days at 100+ degree temps this summer, our electric bill for last month was $150. So long as we don't allow the Demo-libs to remove the LSRD's, we'll continue to benefit from relatively low electrical rates. We're not hurting, and I'm not complaining.

But grocery and gas prices aren't the problem. The concern is core prices that factors out volatile items like food and fuel that can fluctuate wildly. It had been coming down from a March high of 6.5% to 5.9% last month, but in August, it bumped back up to 6.3%. That doesn't sound like a lot, but it's what has the Fed nervous as it's an indication that inflation isn't going away with the decrease in gas prices.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-sta ... ation-rate

I lived through the late 70's/early 80's and saw what kind of an effect inflation can have. You get a nice raise and see it eaten up almost immediately by high prices. It leads to more conflicts with employers. Companies don't like to have to raise prices. You're seeing that conflict play out in the pending railroad strike, which could have a devasting and long lasting effect on the economy if it happens.

That's why I'm so sensitive to any increase in government spending. Sure, things like student loan forgiveness, stand alone, does not have a significant impact on inflation. But when you start adding in other government spending, like the economic stimulus payments, Biden's BBB initiative, increases in aid to Ukraine, and other government excesses, it starts to add up.

I was watching a documentary on Paulk Volcker and he raised interest rates to 20% or so to halt inflation in the late 70s and early 80s. I doubt we get there, but if we do it's going to be bad.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Volcker

Inflation emerged as an economic and political challenge in the United States during the 1970s. The monetary policies of the Federal Reserve board, led by Volcker, were widely credited with curbing the rate of inflation and expectations that inflation would continue. US inflation, which peaked at 14.8 percent in March 1980, fell below 3 percent by 1983.[21][22] The Federal Reserve board led by Volcker raised the federal funds rate, which had averaged 11.2% in 1979, to a peak of 20% in June 1981. The prime rate rose to 21.5% in 1981 as well, which helped lead to the 1980–1982 recession,[23] in which the national unemployment rate rose to over 10%. Volcker's Federal Reserve board elicited the strongest political attacks and most widespread protests in the history of the Federal Reserve (unlike any protests experienced since 1922), due to the effects of high interest rates on the construction, farming, and industrial sectors, culminating in indebted farmers driving their tractors onto C Street NW in Washington, D.C. and blockading the Eccles Building.[24] US monetary policy eased in 1982, helping lead to a resumption of economic growth.

We should not get this high. Depends on the winter and a few other factors. We may have reached peak inflation and start dropping towards 6 percent soon, but we shall see.

I'm still not sure how hard we are getting hit in the pocketbook because companies are still reporting good profits. The feeling is a real recession is coming, not just a technical recession that we don't feel very much. But a real increase in unemployment. I guess we'll see. The interest rate move takes a while to move through the system.

[RiverDog]

Yes, interest rates were sky high back then. The first house I bought in 1979 had a fixed interest rate of 12% through FHA, and it was considered to be a steal. Like you, I don't think we'll get that high, but it illustrates why I fear inflation the way I do. If we think we have a problem with affordable housing now, just think what it would be like if the interest rate on home loans was 12%. It's imperative that we get inflation under control.

I don't think inflation has peaked yet. That's why the market reacted like it did yesterday, because the numbers on core inflation rose, which indicates that we're not out of the woods yet. The railroad strike, or near strike, illustrates what can happen when inflation gets out of control. Employers can't hold the line on price increases unless the wages they pay remain stable and predictable, and employees won't sit still for stagnant wages that doesn't keep up with inflation, so they'll threaten to go on strike if their demands aren't met. It's a vicious circle. In the case of this railroad strike, we're libel to see a contract with a huge wage increase, and it's going to set a precedent for other employees/unions and companies that find themselves in a similar situation. Railroads are going to have to bump their fees to pay for the wage increase, which means shipping rates are going to go up. About a third of all our goods in this country are shipped via the railroad.

[RiverDog]

As expected, the Fed raised the discount rate by another 3/4 of a point earlier this week. Fed chairman Jerome Powell gave a stark warning:

“The chances of a soft landing,” Powell said, “are likely to diminish” as the Fed steadily raises borrowing costs to slow the worst streak of inflation in four decades. “No one knows whether this process will lead to a recession or, if so, how significant that recession would be.”

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/fe ... -recession

The Fed's goal is to get inflation down to 2% annually, so more rate hikes are expected, likely 3/4 of a point at each of their meetings, which are scheduled roughly every 1.5 months:

Before the Fed’s policymakers would consider halting their rate hikes, he (Powell) said, they would have to see continued slow growth, a “modest” increase in unemployment and “clear evidence” that inflation is moving back down to their 2% target.

The main reason inflation has remained relatively stable this summer, or as President Biden refers to it, "just an inch, hardly at all" in an attempt to trivialize the problem, has been due to falling gas prices. However, those prices may have bottomed out, as earlier this week, they broke what had been 99 days of continuous decline, and there's speculation that they'll bump up again. Plus we're in the hurricane season, and a strong storm could cause some problems with gulf coast refineries. In addition to the leveling out of gas prices, the core inflation rate, which factors out fuel and grocery prices that tend to have large price fluctuations, rose significantly last month after having remained relatively stable since spring. And yet another indicator, the stock market, is falling again today, with the Dow dipping below 30,000. Investors are getting nervous.

This is bad news for the Dems as we head into the stretch run leading up to the midterm elections. It's going to push the abortion issue to the back burner...at least until Lindey Graham opens his yapper again.

[Aseahawkfan]

Oil dropped some more. Natural gas is a bigger concern if it is a bad winter.

Power management is getting better and better with companies like STEM using software and batteries to create redundant power systems that manage power in a more efficient system. But a lot of nations and areas bet on natural gas for heating and natural gas supplies from Russia in a harsh winter can be used to extort Europe, which will create big demand for natural gas from alternative sources possibly driving up the price. But it will really depend on how bad the winter is.

Interest rates are going to crush housing and use of debt for consumption and investment. That should put further downward pressure on inflation. But we're pretty far from the 2 percent they want, so expect more hikes. They're thinking we'll top out at 4.5% Fed funds rate sometime next year. Experts think that will definitely lead to a recession where unemployment will rise.

We'll see what issue is bigger in the midterms and how much abortion galvanizes the female voter base. A Federal ban will really freak people out in my opinion. The threat of that at this point in time is a big threat that might trump inflation. We will see.

[RiverDog]

Oil dropped some more. Natural gas is a bigger concern if it is a bad winter.

Power management is getting better and better with companies like STEM using software and batteries to create redundant power systems that manage power in a more efficient system. But a lot of nations and areas bet on natural gas for heating and natural gas supplies from Russia in a harsh winter can be used to extort Europe, which will create big demand for natural gas from alternative sources possibly driving up the price. But it will really depend on how bad the winter is.

Interest rates are going to crush housing and use of debt for consumption and investment. That should put further downward pressure on inflation. But we're pretty far from the 2 percent they want, so expect more hikes. They're thinking we'll top out at 4.5% Fed funds rate sometime next year. Experts think that will definitely lead to a recession where unemployment will rise.

We'll see what issue is bigger in the midterms and how much abortion galvanizes the female voter base. A Federal ban will really freak people out in my opinion. The threat of that at this point in time is a big threat that might trump inflation. We will see.

They're not going to pursue a federal ban on abortion in an election year. That was just Lindsey Graham talking out of his arse. Even a lot of Republicans have come out against Graham's proposal. Even if they wanted to, there's not enough time. The election is barely 6 weeks away. The House won't even be in session during October as they'll all be back home campaigning.

I monitor the price of gas at my local Costco on their website daily. This morning, it went up $.10/gal. Oil and gas will be huge concerns for Europe. The UK is already preparing for blackouts. The primary cause for inflation lessening this summer has been the falling price of gas, and now, that's over, and likely to increase some.

What I've read is that they expect the rate hikes to continue at least until the spring of 2023. There's two more Fed meetings scheduled for this year, and unless they see some substantial improvement in the indicators they're watching, like core inflation, they're almost certain to bump it 3/4 of a point after each meeting. That alone would take it up to 4%. We could end up with a rate at 5.5% or 6% before it's all said and done.

I do expect unemployment to go up a tad. It's currently at 3.7% and could go as high as 5%. The construction industry will be hit hard by these interest rate hikes. Any company making/selling big ticket items, like the auto industry, home appliances, etc, will have to layoff some workers as consumers won't be buying on credit at these high interest rates. Thanks to liberalized unemployment benefits, even though many, if not most, people could easily find other work as there's still a robust job market, many will opt to take a vacation, draw unemployment, and cut back on their discretionary spending rather than take a lower paying job.

As usual, it's going to hit the little guy and those on fixed income the hardest. Affordable housing will be even harder to find. With construction coming to a halt, the rental market will be stressed. In my area, the rental occupancy rate is already at 98%. The government has been spending money like a drunken sailor on a 3 day liberty, and now, the chickens are coming home to roost.

[Aseahawkfan]

They're not going to pursue a federal ban on abortion in an election year. That was just Lindsey Graham talking out of his arse. Even a lot of Republicans have come out against Graham's proposal. Even if they wanted to, there's not enough time. The election is barely 6 weeks away. The House won't even be in session during October as they'll all be back home campaigning.

I monitor the price of gas at my local Costco on their website daily. This morning, it went up $.10/gal. Oil and gas will be huge concerns for Europe. The UK is already preparing for blackouts. The primary cause for inflation lessening this summer has been the falling price of gas, and now, that's over, and likely to increase some.

What I've read is that they expect the rate hikes to continue at least until the spring of 2023. There's two more Fed meetings scheduled for this year, and unless they see some substantial improvement in the indicators they're watching, like core inflation, they're almost certain to bump it 3/4 of a point after each meeting. That alone would take it up to 4%. We could end up with a rate at 5.5% or 6% before it's all said and done.

I do expect unemployment to go up a tad. It's currently at 3.7% and could go as high as 5%. The construction industry will be hit hard by these interest rate hikes. Any company making/selling big ticket items, like the auto industry, home appliances, etc, will have to layoff some workers as consumers won't be buying on credit at these high interest rates. Thanks to liberalized unemployment benefits, even though many, if not most, people could easily find other work as there's still a robust job market, many will opt to take a vacation, draw unemployment, and cut back on their discretionary spending rather than take a lower paying job.

As usual, it's going to hit the little guy and those on fixed income the hardest. Affordable housing will be even harder to find. With construction coming to a halt, the rental market will be stressed. In my area, the rental occupancy rate is already at 98%. The government has been spending money like a drunken sailor on a 3 day liberty, and now, the chickens are coming home to roost.

What do you think his going to happen? Are you saying inflation and the economy will drive more voters to the polls to put Republicans in power in Congress? Is this your bet? How do you see that House and Senate falling? Let's hear your prediction.

[RiverDog]

What do you think his going to happen? Are you saying inflation and the economy will drive more voters to the polls to put Republicans in power in Congress? Is this your bet? How do you see that House and Senate falling? Let's hear your prediction.

I think that the Republicans take control of the House as they only need to flip a couple of seats. The Dems have a mathematical advantage in the Senate, so without looking at the individual races, my off the cuff guess would be that the Dems retain control of the upper wing.

The party in power almost always does poorly in the midterms, including the last midterm election, in 2018 when it was the R's that were the party in power and lost the House. We have an unpopular POTUS and an economy in the toilet. Whether they deserve it or not, voters are going to blame the party in power.

Here's a survey that would tend to support my contention:

The latest NBC poll (9/19/22) of registered voters found that nearly 60% of voters reported that a candidate's position on cost of living is the most important factor when considering who they will vote for this fall, compared to just 37% who said a candidate's stance on abortion is the most important factor.

Those results bode well for Republicans. By a large margin, Republicans are viewed by voters as better equipped than Democrats to handle economic issues, 47% to 28%.

Like I've been saying ever since Roe v Wade was overturned back in June, abortion is fading to the back burner as the bad news about the economy keeps rolling in. People vote their pocket books.

[RiverDog]

I just saw on the news this morning that interest rates on a 30 year fixed mortage is at 6.29%. In September of 2021, the rate was 3.01%, so it's over double of what it was a year ago, and with the Fed making increases in the discount rate and giving every indication that they plan on continuing to bump that rate until inflation is back down to 3% or so, it's certain to go higher in the coming months.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2604/30-yea ... rate-chart

Here's what that increase in the interest rate does to a monthly payment on a typical, single family home loan:

The median price of a new home in the United States is $428,700. Without figuring in insurance and taxes and with a 5% down payment, a 30 year fixed rate loan at 3.01%, what it was a year ago, would result in a monthly premium of $1729.24. Change the interest rate to today's 6.29% and that monthly payment jumps to $2518.21, or an increase of $788.97, a percentage increase of 45%.

https://www.calculator.net/mortgage-cal ... &x=94&y=20

And, of course, homeowners aren't the only ones that have to borrow money. Companies big and small borrow money.

That's a perfect illustration that explains why I am such an avid fiscal conservative and cringe at unnecessary government spending, like economic stimulus payments and student loan forgiveness. I remember what it was like trying to buy a home in the early 1980's. Referring to the above chart, interest rates peaked in September of 1981. The average 30 year fixed rate for a home mortage was 18.36%. Plug that interest rate into the $400K loan in the graphic above and the monthly premium balloons to $6257.60. Try finding affordable housing under those conditions.

[Aseahawkfan]

I just saw on the news this morning that interest rates on a 30 year fixed mortage is at 6.29%. In September of 2021, the rate was 3.01%, so it's over double of what it was a year ago, and with the Fed making increases in the discount rate and giving every indication that they plan on continuing to bump that rate until inflation is back down to 3% or so, it's certain to go higher in the coming months.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2604/30-yea ... rate-chart

Here's what that increase in the interest rate does to a monthly payment on a typical, single family home loan:

The median price of a new home in the United States is $428,700. Without figuring in insurance and taxes and with a 5% down payment, a 30 year fixed rate loan at 3.01%, what it was a year ago, would result in a monthly premium of $1729.24. Change the interest rate to today's 6.29% and that monthly payment jumps to $2518.21, or an increase of $788.97, a percentage increase of 45%.

https://www.calculator.net/mortgage-cal ... &x=94&y=20

And, of course, homeowners aren't the only ones that have to borrow money. Companies big and small borrow money.

That's a perfect illustration that explains why I am such an avid fiscal conservative and cringe at unnecessary government spending, like economic stimulus payments and student loan forgiveness. I remember what it was like trying to buy a home in the early 1980's. Referring to the above chart, interest rates peaked in September of 1981. The average 30 year fixed rate for a home mortage was 18.36%. Plug that interest rate into the $400K loan in the graphic above and the monthly premium balloons to $6257.60. Try finding affordable housing under those conditions.

But you cannot have a government who is fiscally conservative for only a certain group of Americans. You just can't. Until you get the Republicans to clean up all this corporate welfare and subsidization, you can't expect middle class workers to sit by watching corporate and wealthy tax cuts, tax credits, and other incentives while they get nothing. It creates animosity based on income levels. So unless you can explain how to stop all the corporate subsidization and forgiveness, then not sure how you can attack the economic stimulus payments and loan forgiveness.

I posted a link earlier showing the huge amount of PPP loans forgiven which was free money handed out to business owners to support their businesses rather than tap into their personal funds. You keep attacking mainly programs aimed at middle and income workers making it seem like Republicans will clean up the payments, when they really just give the payments to other people based on "too big to fail" or the low interest rates companies were using to fund growth while sitting on huge stockpiles of cash.

So I have to ask, which political party are fiscal conservatives? Because I'm not seeing it in real dollars. I'm seeing a bunch of Republicans claiming to be fiscal conservatives, but if you follow the money they're just handing out the cash to different people. How do you make the government engage in real fiscal conservatism? Right now Republicans build up as much debt as Democrats and spend excess money on tax cuts, incentives, and similar types of spending.

[RiverDog]

I just saw on the news this morning that interest rates on a 30 year fixed mortage is at 6.29%. In September of 2021, the rate was 3.01%, so it's over double of what it was a year ago, and with the Fed making increases in the discount rate and giving every indication that they plan on continuing to bump that rate until inflation is back down to 3% or so, it's certain to go higher in the coming months.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2604/30-yea ... rate-chart

Here's what that increase in the interest rate does to a monthly payment on a typical, single family home loan:

The median price of a new home in the United States is $428,700. Without figuring in insurance and taxes and with a 5% down payment, a 30 year fixed rate loan at 3.01%, what it was a year ago, would result in a monthly premium of $1729.24. Change the interest rate to today's 6.29% and that monthly payment jumps to $2518.21, or an increase of $788.97, a percentage increase of 45%.

https://www.calculator.net/mortgage-cal ... &x=94&y=20

And, of course, homeowners aren't the only ones that have to borrow money. Companies big and small borrow money.

That's a perfect illustration that explains why I am such an avid fiscal conservative and cringe at unnecessary government spending, like economic stimulus payments and student loan forgiveness. I remember what it was like trying to buy a home in the early 1980's. Referring to the above chart, interest rates peaked in September of 1981. The average 30 year fixed rate for a home mortage was 18.36%. Plug that interest rate into the $400K loan in the graphic above and the monthly premium balloons to $6257.60. Try finding affordable housing under those conditions.

But you cannot have a government who is fiscally conservative for only a certain group of Americans. You just can't. Until you get the Republicans to clean up all this corporate welfare and subsidization, you can't expect middle class workers to sit by watching corporate and wealthy tax cuts, tax credits, and other incentives while they get nothing. It creates animosity based on income levels. So unless you can explain how to stop all the corporate subsidization and forgiveness, then not sure how you can attack the economic stimulus payments and loan forgiveness.

I posted a link earlier showing the huge amount of PPP loans forgiven which was free money handed out to business owners to support their businesses rather than tap into their personal funds. You keep attacking mainly programs aimed at middle and income workers making it seem like Republicans will clean up the payments, when they really just give the payments to other people based on "too big to fail" or the low interest rates companies were using to fund growth while sitting on huge stockpiles of cash.

So I have to ask, which political party are fiscal conservatives? Because I'm not seeing it in real dollars. I'm seeing a bunch of Republicans claiming to be fiscal conservatives, but if you follow the money they're just handing out the cash to different people. How do you make the government engage in real fiscal conservatism? Right now Republicans build up as much debt as Democrats and spend excess money on tax cuts, incentives, and similar types of spending.

Did I say anything about which political party represents fiscal conservatives like me? The Republicans were just as culpable in 4 the economic stimulus payments as the Dems. As a matter of fact, it was a Republican POTUS that not only endorsed the last stimulus payment, but he also said that it wasn't large enough. Same with the Trump tax cuts. Both parties use taxpayer money to stroke their constituencies for their own political gain and without the slightest regard to the consequences.

The point of my post was to illustrate what kind of danger to the economy and to the lives of ordinary Americans that inflation and the subsequent high interest rates that has to be incurred to fight it represents. It's a genie that I'm afraid that we've let out of its bottle.

[Aseahawkfan]

Did I say anything about which political party represents fiscal conservatives like me? The Republicans were just as culpable in 4 the economic stimulus payments as the Dems. As a matter of fact, it was a Republican POTUS that not only endorsed the last stimulus payment, but he also said that it wasn't large enough. Same with the Trump tax cuts. Both parties use taxpayer money to stroke their constituencies for their own political gain and without the slightest regard to the consequences.

The point of my post was to illustrate what kind of danger to the economy and to the lives of ordinary Americans that inflation and the subsequent high interest rates that has to be incurred to fight it represents. It's a genie that I'm afraid that we've let out of its bottle.

How do you make that happen when the appearance of fairness doesn't exist? Posters like c-bob and I5 are right when they claim we hear nothing from Republicans when they're handing out tax breaks and corporate welfare payments all under the guise of helping the economy. And both of them seem to vote Democrat or something other than Republican. I know a lot of Republicans like to pretend the Republican Party are fiscal conservatives with their trickle down "math" which is is faulty economics. And it's obvious that the Democrats are big tax and spend proponents following Keynesian economic theory which has serious faults as well. I know more than a few of my economics teachers had moved away from either extreme instead teaching economic decisions should be based on the time and crisis you were dealing with. You couldn't use the same economic remedies for every situation as they all differed and likely required a tailored solution. But that doesn't seem to be how our political parties operate as major campaign promises for each party almost always revolve around some kind of tax cutting for Republicans and additional social programs for Democrats requiring more tax monies. Then both parties negotiate tons of tax breaks and credits and other loopholes for the wealthy and business owners that they don't discuss on the campaign trail, but inevitably make it into their economic bills, often snuck in that we don't learn about unless we're paying attention.

So I'm wondering how you expect to get this changed? How do you expect real fiscal conservatism to prevail in our government?

I'm willing to bet that Democrats like c-bob and I5 could swallow fiscal conservatism a whole lot easier if it were real fiscal conservatism applied equally. I didn't see many Democratic voters complaining when Bill Clinton and Newt Gingrich came to some deficit reduction agreements and actually paid down some of the deficit. Now both parties are just handing out any excess cash hand over fist. I was even reading Ron De Santis is taking the tax surplus in Florida and returning it to the citizens in the form of some kind of tax relief bill.

https://news.wgcu.org/2022-09-21/desantis-pitches-a-1-1-billion-tax-break-package-to-help-families

Is there a real chance of fiscal conservatism taking hold in America or is it all just a bunch of hot air by the Republicans who can't wait to cut taxes more and subsidize big business and provide tax cuts under their trickle down BS philosophy while middle and working class Americans are encouraged to bow down to the job creators getting the breaks who aren't creating good paying jobs and are using a lot of that money to buy more assets making them even more unaffordable?

[RiverDog]

I'm not sure why you're so preoccupied with my personal politics, ie a fiscal conservative. Are you trying to get me to change the color of my stripes?

The point I was trying to make, and the topic of the OP, was about the danger that inflation and the high interest rates necessary to combat it poses for ordinary people like us. People seeking to own their own homes won't be able to afford the payments. The rental market is already maxed out in many areas, like the area in which I live, so people are going to be spending more money on necessities like food and rent and less on discretionary things like cars, boats, vacations, dining out, etc. Small companies won't be able to borrow money to operate, and big companies won't be able to finance new equipment. Workers seeking to keep their wages up with the cost of living may strike. All of these factors could push prices even higher.

How we got here is beside the point. The point is that we are facing a very serious economic threat, one that we haven't faced since the late 70's/early 80's.

[Aseahawkfan]

I'm not sure why you're so preoccupied with my personal politics, ie a fiscal conservative. Are you trying to get me to change the color of my stripes?

The point I was trying to make, and the topic of the OP, was about the danger that inflation and the high interest rates necessary to combat it poses for ordinary people like us. People seeking to own their own homes won't be able to afford the payments. The rental market is already maxed out in many areas, like the area in which I live, so people are going to be spending more money on necessities like food and rent and less on discretionary things like cars, boats, vacations, dining out, etc. Small companies won't be able to borrow money to operate, and big companies won't be able to finance new equipment. Workers seeking to keep their wages up with the cost of living may strike. All of these factors could push prices even higher.

How we got here is beside the point. The point is that we are facing a very serious economic threat, one that we haven't faced since the late 70's/early 80's.

I'm asking you how you really stop this? How you do get a government to be fiscally responsible and to appear equitable in their economic management?

Republican voters tend to reflexively attack Democratic relief for the middle and working class, while voting under the false assumption the Republicans are more fiscally responsible when they are not. They just hand out money in different ways.

So you are posting that you don't support the student loan forgiveness and economic stimulus payments because you are a fiscal conservative seems like a bias and support for inequitable governance. Yet you do not go after Republican economic irresponsibility like tax credits and lower capital gains taxes which have many millionaires and billionaires paying a lower percentage of their already extreme incomes in taxes. So these folks are getting big tax breaks from Republicans that allow them to greatly drive up asset prices as well with investors like Bill Gates buying up an immense amounts of farmland and Elon Musk buying another company like Twitter.

So you and the other Republican "fiscal conservatives" are getting up in arms about 10,000 student loan forgiveness and some 600 to 1200 stimulus payments while not getting up in arms about the PPP loan forgiveness, capital gains lower tax rates, and the general ability to manipulate taxes by the wealthy to pay a lower rate than working people making a substantially lower income.

I'm wondering if you are true fiscal conservative, how do you get this taken care of when neither party seems interested? It seems more than a little unfair to call out economic relief for lower and middle income people while ignoring all the tax relief and payouts to millionaires and billionaires who really don't need it. You think the guy making 125,000 a year doesn't need the 10,000 student loan forgiveness. I guarantee the guy making 10 million plus a year doesn't need to pay a 20% or lower tax rate because of all his write offs and credits and the capital gains rate.

I think just as Democrats have painted the Republicans as racists whether deserved or not, the Republicans have painted themselves as fiscal conservatives compared to Democrats when the last president to pay down the deficit or have a balanced budget was Democratic President Bill Clinton. Republicans don't appear to be fiscal conservatives.

I'm wondering if you notice you have bought hook, line, and sinker into this viewpoint absent evidence that Republicans will act in a more fiscally conservative manner. You seem to think that economic relief for lower and middle income people is worth attacking while ignoring the handouts by Republicans they do nearly every time they get power.

I'm asking you point blank, how do you vote for real fiscal conservatism? You certainly do not do that by voting for Republicans. And attacking economic relief for the lower and middle income folks while ignoring the handouts and economic relief for people who need it even less than the middle and lower income folks seems like you showing a real bias.

[RiverDog]

Don't look now, but gas prices are going back up at a time when they should be easing some as the vacation season has come to an end. Perhaps Biden should write another strongly worded letter to the oil execs. After all, it worked the last time, didn't it?

The problem now is that OPEC has threatened to cut production, which has made investors jittery and caused the price of crude to rise. We do not live in a vacuum in this country. Crude oil is by far the largest cost component in the price of gasoline that we pay at the pump. It is a commodity traded on the world market. We are both an exporter and importer of crude oil. The price of Brent crude is up over 12% in just one week.

This is why the Fed factors out the price of gas when they make long term economic decisions like raising interest rates. Energy prices fluctuate wildly depending on a number of unpredictable factors, like hurricanes in the gulf, the war in Ukraine, and a cold winter in the east. Instead, they look at an index called core inflation, which recently has been on the rise. If gas prices remain high, inflation will go even higher than the 8% we're seeing today.

This is bad news for the Democrats in the upcoming midterms. The price of a gallon of gas is the most visible household cost that we see. We can follow the changes in price each and every day when we drive past the same gas station that displays their price on a huge sign that's easy to see, and even though the Dems/Biden have very little immediate control over the price of gas, voters will hold the party in power accountable as it happened on their watch.

[Aseahawkfan]

Don't look now, but gas prices are going back up at a time when they should be easing some as the vacation season has come to an end. Perhaps Biden should write another strongly worded letter to the oil execs. After all, it worked the last time, didn't it?

The problem now is that OPEC has threatened to cut production, which has made investors jittery and caused the price of crude to rise. We do not live in a vacuum in this country. Crude oil is by far the largest cost component in the price of gasoline that we pay at the pump. It is a commodity traded on the world market. We are both an exporter and importer of crude oil. The price of Brent crude is up over 12% in just one week.

This is why the Fed factors out the price of gas when they make long term economic decisions like raising interest rates. Energy prices fluctuate wildly depending on a number of unpredictable factors, like hurricanes in the gulf, the war in Ukraine, and a cold winter in the east. Instead, they look at an index called core inflation, which recently has been on the rise. If gas prices remain high, inflation will go even higher than the 8% we're seeing today.

This is bad news for the Democrats in the upcoming midterms. The price of a gallon of gas is the most visible household cost that we see. We can follow the changes in price each and every day when we drive past the same gas station that displays their price on a huge sign that's easy to see, and even though the Dems/Biden have very little immediate control over the price of gas, voters will hold the party in power accountable as it happened on their watch.

We'll see. Midterms are the barometer for how this looks for both parties.

You still won't answer the question of will the Republicans be any more fiscally conservative than the Democrats because history says no, they won't. So putting them in office won't change much but who gets the tax breaks and federal money returned.

And the only thing turning this economy around right now is The Fed making money cheap again. Expensive money means less credit for growing the economy. The goal is 3% inflation which we are far off of, so interest rates will likely keep rising into a real recession.

[RiverDog]

You still won't answer the question of will the Republicans be any more fiscally conservative than the Democrats because history says no, they won't. So putting them in office won't change much but who gets the tax breaks and federal money returned.

It seems like you've answered the question yourself.

I'm on record as objecting to many of the Republicans spending initiatives, such as pandemic relief and the Trump tax cuts. I am not a Republican. I am a fiscal conservative and social moderate. I do not identify with either party. IMO the Republicans have turned into Democrats and the Democrats have turned into Socialists. They both spend money like a drunken sailor on a 3 day liberty.

And the only thing turning this economy around right now is The Fed making money cheap again. Expensive money means less credit for growing the economy. The goal is 3% inflation which we are far off of, so interest rates will likely keep rising into a real recession.

The Fed is between a rock and a hard spot. If they keep raising interest rates, they run the danger of ruining financial markets. They may have to accept a level of inflation higher than their 3% target.

I see where unemployment actually went down last month when they expected it to tick up. As insensitive as it sounds, that's a bad thing as it means that the interest rate increases have not yet begun to take their desired effect, which is to slow down the economy and reduce demand, thus lowering prices. We could be in for some pretty rough waters.

[Aseahawkfan]

It seems like you've answered the question yourself.

I'm on record as objecting to many of the Republicans spending initiatives, such as pandemic relief and the Trump tax cuts. I am not a Republican. I am a fiscal conservative and social moderate. I do not identify with either party. IMO the Republicans have turned into Democrats and the Democrats have turned into Socialists. They both spend money like a drunken sailor on a 3 day liberty.

I'd figure you'd use the answer I'd use: we don't have any power over how these legislators run the country, so you vote for who will affect your pocketbook the most. Or some other issue. Or just on pure hate or fear, both of which seems to be the primary driver of voting in the modern day. It's why you and I both agree it would be real nice to have some guys making decisions in smoke-filled rooms as long as some of those guys have some morality and concerns for the well-being of humanity.

Then again I've always believed the creation of America as a nation was a miracle. Though people like to bag on it because the protections offered in the Constitution applied only to "white men" at the time, the reality they don't want to accept is that document set this world on a different path than where it was heading. What was before that document was much worse than what came after. People should be smart enough to realize an idea does not change the world overnight, but merely sets the path for that change over the course of many human lives. Which is what that document did for this nation.

The Fed is between a rock and a hard spot. If they keep raising interest rates, they run the danger of ruining financial markets. They may have to accept a level of inflation higher than their 3% target.

I see where unemployment actually went down last month when they expected it to tick up. As insensitive as it sounds, that's a bad thing as it means that the interest rate increases have not yet begun to take their desired effect, which is to slow down the economy and reduce demand, thus lowering prices. We could be in for some pretty rough waters.

The Fed and the government. They panicked during COVID. Shoved a historically enormous amount of stimulus into the economy that many stock fund managers and the like don't want pulled out. But I personally admire Jerome Powell for making the hard decision to at least try to normalize the economy and slow the inflation they caused during the pandemic stimulus. It's a hard thing to push the economy into recession, but you can't have these spiraling prices and the stimulus effect remain after the economy is fully open.

We'll see next month if your prediction is good. What did you say? Republicans take the House and Democrats maintain either equity or take the Senate? Personally, I'm imagining Lindsey Graham ads days before the vote day, but we'll see soon enough what really happens. Then we can debate that.

[RiverDog]

The Fed and the government. They panicked during COVID. Shoved a historically enormous amount of stimulus into the economy that many stock fund managers and the like don't want pulled out. But I personally admire Jerome Powell for making the hard decision to at least try to normalize the economy and slow the inflation they caused during the pandemic stimulus. It's a hard thing to push the economy into recession, but you can't have these spiraling prices and the stimulus effect remain after the economy is fully open.

I agree completely. I said back when they started handing out the money during the pandemic that it was wasteful and was inflationary.

I like Powell, too, and I fully support the actions he's been taking. Believe me, we don't want to head down that inflation path. If it's going to cause unemployment to bump up a few points, then so be it. We've liberalized unemployment benefits to such a degree that it's not going to hurt people that much, anyway. We still have a labor shortage. There's plenty of work out there for those that want to and will be even if the economy goes into recession.

We'll see next month if your prediction is good. What did you say? Republicans take the House and Democrats maintain either equity or take the Senate? Personally, I'm imagining Lindsey Graham ads days before the vote day, but we'll see soon enough what really happens. Then we can debate that.

Yup. The R's regain control of the House, perhaps the Senate, too. The abortion issue is no longer front-page news. Biden is still hugely unpopular. Gas prices are rising again. But we'll see.

[RiverDog]

More bad news today. First of all, the SSA announced that Social Security recipients will receive an 8.7% increase in benefit payments, the largest single year raise in 40 years, beginning in January of 2023. While it's nice that us seniors are getting a hefty raise, it's an indication of just how bad inflation is.

Secondly, they released September's CPI numbers, and they were up .4% in September and 8.2% from a year ago. The core index, which strips out food and energy, was up .6% for the month. The yearly gain for the core is the highest since August of 1982.

Worker wages, when adjusted for inflation, fell .1% for the month and are down 3% for the year. That was exactly the scenario that I was referring to when we went through this back in the late 70's-early 80's, that you get a nice raise only to see it completely eaten up by inflation.

Today's news virtually guarantees that the Fed will continue raising interest rates, by .75% at their next meeting in November and likely another .75 point in December. I read an article this morning that analysts from Bank of America said that inflation will stay elevated for the next decade after years of underinvestment in energy, sticky wage inflation, and aging demographics. The aging demographics comment highlights one of my pet peeves, the labor shortage and the worker-to-retiree ratio.

Oh, well.

[Aseahawkfan]

And the stock market rallied on the news and I'm not touching that rally with a ten foot pole. .75 point boost is coming for absolute certain.

[RiverDog]

And the stock market rallied on the news and I'm not touching that rally with a ten foot pole. .75 point boost is coming for absolute certain.

Yeah, the stock market was crazy yesterday, one of the biggest one day yo-yo's on record.

It will be two .75 bumps before the end of the year, one in November, another a month later. And we'll likely get a couple more in the first quarter of next year. Millennials are going to have to read up on the term "stagflation", something I grew up with as a young adult. It looks like we're heading for a hard landing.

There's a report out today from Saudi Arabia that Biden asked the Saudis to delay OPEC's planned production cuts, the anticipation of which has already caused a spike in oil prices, for one month until after the US elections. Of course, the Biden Administration is denying it and is now threatening to retaliate by saying that we're going to "reassess our relationship with the Saudis". Now just watch: When the Republicans gain control of the House, they'll shut down the Jan. 6th investigation and open one on Biden's supposed request.

[RiverDog]

I'm standing by my prediction, that the R's retake the House. I'm less certain about their ability to gain control of the Senate, but the way things are going, they could end up taking the upper chamber, too.

Surveys have shown that the abortion issue, as expected, has drifted well below the economy and inflation (aren't they one and the same?) as the top issue likely voters are concerned about. Surveys also show that 64% of voters think that the country is heading in the wrong direction. Biden's job approval numbers are still in the toilet, in the low 40's. Even the generic surveys of party preference, which generally tilts towards the Dems, shows a clear majority favor the R's.

Gas prices are still up, over $6.00/gallon in California. Biden has been accused of manipulating releases from the strategic oil reserve to increase Dem's chances in the midterms. The Saudis claim that he asked that they delay production cuts until after the US election. Neither are good looks and will be used by the R's in their campaign ads.

We're less than 3 weeks ahead of the election, but at this point, I see no reason to back off my prediction, and if it comes true, I'll gladly accept a tip of the hat from those of you that said the abortion issue would carry through to the midterms.

[Aseahawkfan]

I'm standing by my prediction, that the R's retake the House. I'm less certain about their ability to gain control of the Senate, but the way things are going, they could end up taking the upper chamber, too.

Surveys have shown that the abortion issue, as expected, has drifted well below the economy and inflation (aren't they one and the same?) as the top issue likely voters are concerned about. Surveys also show that 64% of voters think that the country is heading in the wrong direction. Biden's job approval numbers are still in the toilet, in the low 40's. Even the generic surveys of party preference, which generally tilts towards the Dems, shows a clear majority favor the R's.

Gas prices are still up, over $6.00/gallon in California. Biden has been accused of manipulating releases from the strategic oil reserve to increase Dem's chances in the midterms. The Saudis claim that he asked that they delay production cuts until after the US election. Neither are good looks and will be used by the R's in their campaign ads.

We're less than 3 weeks ahead of the election, but at this point, I see no reason to back off my prediction, and if it comes true, I'll gladly accept a tip of the hat from those of you that said the abortion issue would carry through to the midterms.

On a side note, have you listened to some of these Tiffany Smiley attack ads? It's like bizarro world commercials. Smiley is running as a Republican, but she's running ads saying Patty Murry has screwed teachers over and Smiley will raise their pay and that Patty Murray has screwed over middle class workers and Smiley plans to give middle class workers tax cuts. She's basically running as a Republican but is attacking Patty Murray like she's the Republican. It's very strange.

[RiverDog]

On a side note, have you listened to some of these Tiffany Smiley attack ads? It's like bizarro world commercials. Smiley is running as a Republican, but she's running ads saying Patty Murry has screwed teachers over and Smiley will raise their pay and that Patty Murray has screwed over middle class workers and Smiley plans to give middle class workers tax cuts. She's basically running as a Republican but is attacking Patty Murray like she's the Republican. It's very strange.

Yeah, I've noticed that, too. It's a cat fight, two women in a hair pulling contest like the old roller derby days. Neither one of them have outlined a platform. All Murray talks about is abortion and all Smiley talks about is her own personal story, helping her wounded vet hubby recover. I haven't decided who I'm going to vote for. I'm trying to figure out how close to Trump Smiley is. My wife threw away my voter's pamphlet.

But it won't make a difference anyway. Murray could be running a prostitute ring from her basement and this state would still vote for her. No Republican has won a state wide election for almost 30 years. It's one of the reasons why I support statehood for E. Washington. I get tired of Seattle area politicians foisting their views on us without the slightest acknowledgement of our concerns.

I just submitted my ballot. I voted for Smiley for Senator and Dan Newhouse for my Representative.

The race between Smiley and Cow Patty seems to be tightening up. If the Dems can't hold onto this seat in the bluest of the blue states, then they're in deep caca nation wide and will lose the Senate as well as the House.

The election is just a week away, and I'm sticking by the prediction I made last June following the Roe v Wade decision. R's flip the House and might even take the Senate.

[I-5]

We're less than 3 weeks ahead of the election, but at this point, I see no reason to back off my prediction, and if it comes true, I'll gladly accept a tip of the hat from those of you that said the abortion issue would carry through to the midterms.

Fair enough. And what can we expect from you if it goes the other way?

[RiverDog]

We're less than 3 weeks ahead of the election, but at this point, I see no reason to back off my prediction, and if it comes true, I'll gladly accept a tip of the hat from those of you that said the abortion issue would carry through to the midterms.

Fair enough. And what can we expect from you if it goes the other way?

I'll buy you a beer!

[I-5]

I'll buy you a beer!

HA! Deal.

[Hawktawk]

I don’t get into the nuts and bolts of the situation , just read the tea leaves and watch the canaries in a coal mine . And I’ve about had it with this selfish greedy lazy spoiled rotten country full of idiots in the perimeter of both parties . I see memes suggesting the thing they remember is the inflation rate on Jan 6, fuel prices . Retirees bemoaning loss of savings . Inflation . Blah Blah blah . It’s a bipartisan cluster . Trump ran the highest peacetime deficits ever but they did not contribute to inflation . Biden slams the brakes on oil as we emerge from a pandemic , championed every fringe group, note to you liberal fanatics there’re a difference between acceptance and celebration . But we here in America whine and moan when we have it better than almost anyone else in a tough time globally . I’ll focus on loving my family and friends in a day and age when trumps buddy could turn me to a radioactive ash in 15 minutes . Thankful for every minute . No party affiliation . I don’t care anymore .

[RiverDog]

I just submitted my ballot. Since it seems that Smiley is not connected at the hip with Trump and stated that she thinks that Biden is the legitimately elected POTUS, I went ahead and voted for her, along with Dan Newhouse, one of the few R's to have voted to impeach Trump following the Jan. 6th Capitol riot.

The Senate race here in WA seems to be tightening up. The last poll I saw had Cow Patty holding a slim 1.5% lead over Smiley, well within the margin of error. I don't believe that poll and still think that Murray holds onto her seat by at least a couple of percentage points. But it is indicative of the mood nationwide, that the abortion issue has faded behind the economy and inflation as issues voters care about most.

The election is just a week away, and I'm standing by the prediction I made back in June following the SCOTUS decision to overturn Roe v Wade, that the R's flip the House and might even flip the Senate.

[Aseahawkfan]

I just submitted my ballot. Since it seems that Smiley is not connected at the hip with Trump and stated that she thinks that Biden is the legitimately elected POTUS, I went ahead and voted for her, along with Dan Newhouse, one of the few R's to have voted to impeach Trump following the Jan. 6th Capitol riot.

The Senate race here in WA seems to be tightening up. The last poll I saw had Cow Patty holding a slim 1.5% lead over Smiley, well within the margin of error. I don't believe that poll and still think that Murray holds onto her seat by at least a couple of percentage points. But it is indicative of the mood nationwide, that the abortion issue has faded behind the economy and inflation as issues voters care about most.

The election is just a week away, and I'm standing by the prediction I made back in June following the SCOTUS decision to overturn Roe v Wade, that the R's flip the House and might even flip the Senate.

Seven days and we'll see if the angry woman voter will outnumber the angry general voter whose main concern is the economy.

[RiverDog]

Seven days and we'll see if the angry woman voter will outnumber the angry general voter whose main concern is the economy.

The abortion issue isn't going to change many votes. Nearly everyone that is offended by the Roe v. Wade decision are going to vote Democratic anyway. That's one of the reasons why I didn't think the SCOTUS decision was going to hurt the R's chances.

I've been following Tiffany Smiley for the past few weeks. She's been walking a very fine line, trying to distance herself from Trump while not offending the MAGA people. That's why I decided to vote for her as I can understand the predicament she's in, and I have a pretty good feeling that she's not a Marjorie Green-style Republican.

[RiverDog]

I got a kick out of reading an article just now. Biden's numbers ticked up....to 40% approval:

The two-day national poll found that 40% of Americans approve of Biden's job performance, a percentage point higher than a week earlier.

Despite the increase, Biden's approval rating remains near the lowest levels of his presidency, and his unpopularity is helping drive the view that Republicans will win control of the House and possibly also the Senate on Nov. 8.

That's Trumpian territory.

There is a bit of a trend towards the Dems this week as gas prices have come down some. But it's likely too little, too late.

[Aseahawkfan]

I got a kick out of reading an article just now. Biden's numbers ticked up....to 40% approval:

The two-day national poll found that 40% of Americans approve of Biden's job performance, a percentage point higher than a week earlier.

Despite the increase, Biden's approval rating remains near the lowest levels of his presidency, and his unpopularity is helping drive the view that Republicans will win control of the House and possibly also the Senate on Nov. 8.

That's Trumpian territory.

There is a bit of a trend towards the Dems this week as gas prices have come down some. But it's likely too little, too late.

And this isn't even a presidential election. This is minor compared to what they are going to do to take Biden down in 2024. These attacks will look minor by the time 2024 hits and Trump starts campaigning as it seems he plans to do.

I really wish the Dems would take Trump down as they keep claiming they are going to do, because this guy is getting closer and closer to running again. If the Republicans take the House and/or Senate, he's almost guaranteed to run again as he will be protected. Lap Dog McConnell won't go against his Party even though he hates Trump. None of them will if he wins the nomination.

[RiverDog]

I got a kick out of reading an article just now. Biden's numbers ticked up....to 40% approval:

The two-day national poll found that 40% of Americans approve of Biden's job performance, a percentage point higher than a week earlier.

Despite the increase, Biden's approval rating remains near the lowest levels of his presidency, and his unpopularity is helping drive the view that Republicans will win control of the House and possibly also the Senate on Nov. 8.

That's Trumpian territory.

There is a bit of a trend towards the Dems this week as gas prices have come down some. But it's likely too little, too late.

And this isn't even a presidential election. This is minor compared to what they are going to do to take Biden down in 2024. These attacks will look minor by the time 2024 hits and Trump starts campaigning as it seems he plans to do.

I really wish the Dems would take Trump down as they keep claiming they are going to do, because this guy is getting closer and closer to running again. If the Republicans take the House and/or Senate, he's almost guaranteed to run again as he will be protected. Lap Dog McConnell won't go against his Party even though he hates Trump. None of them will if he wins the nomination.

I'm not even thinking about 2024 yet. A lot can happen between now and then. If inflation cools down and gas prices moderate, Biden can claim credit for them even though it won't be due to a single thing he's done to control it (nor has it risen due to any action of his, either). If not, it doesn't matter who the R's trot out there, they'll beat him like a dog. I just hope to hell that it's not Trump that they nominate.

[RiverDog]

The Fed hiked interest rates again by another 3/4 of a point, but it sounds like they might be losing their stomach for future rate increases. The problem is that with the exception of some interest rate sensitive sectors, like housing, the rate increases haven't had much of an effect on consumer demand or the job market as both are still strong.

I'm not sure where this is going to end. Getting people to quit spending as we approach the holiday season is a pretty tough task. The government is going to have to step in and cut spending, take money out of people's hands and force them to quit spending and let demand cool, but of course, they won't. Inflation is going to be with us for some time.